Election Timeline 2024:

When can I go to bed?

When can you go to bed? Probably whenever you want. The odds of us knowing who won the election on election
night are pretty low. Get some rest, for god’s sake.

Below is a list of states grouped by when the last poll in the state officially closes (Time by EST- if you don’t live in EST,
why? Who hurt you?). Next to each state is the “assumed” tilt or lean of the state. Obviously if something extreme
happens and one of the states not listed below suddenly switches to the other party, know something truly bizarre his
happening.

Below each time is a list of the states that appear closest in public opinion polling or are otherwise notable. In
[brackets] is the time that state was “called” by the Associated Press in 2012 / 2016 / 2020. Unless noted otherwise
“pm” denotes the evening of the election and “am” denotes the next morning. If it was more than one day to call, it
will be noted.

Also included are states where there are close senate races or notable Governors races. The GOP must end up with
net +2 senate seats, or only net +1 senate seat with the presidency to control the senate.

Most likely tipping point states: PA (8:00 PM), MI (9:00 PM), NC (7:30 PM), GA (7:00 PM), WI (9:00 PM), AZ (9:00 PM),
NV (10 PM)

Senate States to Watch: West Virginia (D), Montana (D) Ohio (D), , Florida (R), Pennsylvania (D), Arizona (I/D),
Michigan (D), Nebraska (R), Texas (R), Nevada (D),

7 p.m: Georgia (?), Indiana (R), Kentucky (R), South Carolina (R), Vermont (D), Virginia (D),
● Georgia [8:28 p.m. / 11:33 p.m. / 8:34 pm November 19th, 16 days after the election]
o Assume too close to call. If they call this on election night, assume whoever they call it for has a
massive advantage moving forward.
● Virginia [12:37 a.m. / 10:40 p.m. / 7:36 p.m.]
o Has become a defacto blue state in recent years, but the GOP has always had an eye to take it back. If
this is too close to call for too long, it means very bad things for harris.

7:30 p.m. North Carolina (?), Ohio (R), West Virginia (R)
● North Carolina [10:53 pm / 11:11 pm/ 3:56 pm November 13, 10 days after the election]
o While recent polling puts this closer to Trump then to Harris, the North Carolina republican party is a
disaster on par with the Hindenburg and New Coke. If this is called for Harris, she can lose in almighty
PA if she also picks up another sunbelt state (even tiny little Nevada).
o Governor: One of the reasons the NCGOP is such a dumpster fire is because of their current
Gubernatorial Nominee Mark Robinson, who you should google if you need to know just how badly a
politician can blow up their own life. If Democratic nominee Josh Stein doesn't win this one by double
digits, its a portent of doom for the Dems.
● Ohio [11:17 pm / 10:36 pm / 12:19 am]
Election Timeline 2024:
When can I go to bed?
o Once a swing state par excellence, now considered pretty safe Trump terf. Homestate of Trump running
mate JD Vance. If Harris was to suddenly pull out an unexpected win here, it’s a Harris landslide.
o Senate: Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is a democrat representing a state that voted for Trump by
8 points twice. The polls have been very tight between Brown and Republican Bernie Moreno. The
dems need to hold this to hold the senate.
● West Virginia [7:30 pm / 7:30 pm / 7:30 pm]
o This will not be close. Note how the polls close at 7:30? Note how it's always called at 730? This is
trump country, yeehaw.
o Senate: WVa is currently represented by conservative democrat Joe Manchin, liberals least favorite
democratic senator. He’s retiring to spend more time with his yachts, and the polls show
Democrat-turned-Republican governor Jim Justice is going to trounce democrat Glen Elliott, a candidate
so on top of things he doesn't even have a wikipedia page. Expect (+1 GOP Senate)

8:00 p.m. Alabama (R), Connecticut (D), Delaware (D), Florida (R), Illinois (D), Maine (D-?), Maryland (D),
Massachusetts (D), Mississippi (R), Missouri (R), New Hampshire (D), New Jersey (D), Oklahoma (R), Pennsylvania
(???), Rhode Island (D), Tennessee (R), Washington DC (D)
● Florida [3:21 p.m. November. 10, 4 days after the election / 10:50 pm / 12:35 am]
o Donald Trump’s “home state” since he abandoned New York for the sunny bunkers of Mar-a-Lago. He
should win this one. A loss here would be a nightmare for Trump.
o Senate: Incumbent senator Rick Scott has long been a favorite to win, but dems have lately been
dumping cash into the campaign of his challenger, Debbie Murcarsel-Powell. Expect a Scott win, but
this is a longshot Dem pickup chance.
● Maine [10:28 pm / 1:56 am / 1:42 pm day after election]
o Maine will, as a state, go for Kamala Harris, with the only question being the single electoral vote from
Maine’s second district which is allotted separately. This singular vote is expected to go for Donald
trump, as it did in 2016 and 2020.
● New Hampshire [10:04 pm / 11:58 am / 11:13 pm]
o Trump came close to winning NH in 2016, but was beaten fairly solidly in 2020. This is a reach state for
him, and most models presume Harris will win.
● Pennsylvania [9:48 pm / 1:35 am, / 11:25 am November 7th, 4 days after the election]
o As goes PA so goes America. Given how PA counts its mail-in votes, I do not expect a call on election
day. Whoever wins PA is overwhelmingly likely to become the next president of the United States, and
the polls are close enough that both sides have a very good chance of winning.
o Senate: Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey has won his last 2 elections by more than 10 points
but this is PA in an election year. While Casey is favored, a decisive trump victory could doom him and a
decisive Harris victory save him from defeat. Dems need to hold this seat to hope to hold the senate.

8:30 p.m. Arkansas (R)

● Boring. Next.
Election Timeline 2024:
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9:00 p.m. Arizona (?), Colorado (D), Iowa (R), Kansas (R), Louisiana (R), Michigan (?), Minnesota (D), Nebraska (R), New
Mexico (D), New York (D), North Dakota (R), South Dakota (R), Texas (R), Wisconsin (?), Wyoming (R)
● Arizona [10:36 pm, / 12:52 am November 10th 2 days after the election / 2:50 am]
o Leans Trump. If Trump loses here, he is in deep trouble, and must win Minnesota or Wisconsin to make
up for the loss.
o Senate: Incumbent Green-turned-Democrat-Turned-Independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema declined to
run for another term due to all the -turn-ing, leaving an open seat that the democrats need to defend.
Democratic congressman Congressman Ruban Gallego is the slight favorite over Republican news
anchor and Trump favorite Kari Lake, but you never know.
● Michigan [9:02 pm / 2:29 am / 5:56 pm the day after the election]
o Part of the so-called Blue Wall, Harris needs MI to win. Harris hopes to run up her numbers in Detroit
while Trump hopes the war in Gaza will depress turnout among the muslim vote in the state. Polls have
been trending in Harris’ direction, but its going to be very close.
o Senate: Incumbent senator Deborah “Debbie Stabs” Stabenow declined to run for a 5th term, so the
democrats must defend an open seat. While their nominee Elissa Slotkin has led in polling, but a Trump
win in MI could help push republican Mike Rogers over the top.
● Minnesota [10:57 pm / 1:56 pm the day after the election / 11:43 pm]
o Like New Hampshire, this was a state where Trump genuinely thought he had a shot in 2016, but solidly
voted against him in 2020. Its also the homestate of Harris’ VP nominee Tim Walz. If this isn’t called on
election day, its a bad sign for Harris.
● Nebraska [9:02 pm / 9:01 pm / 9:00 pm (four votes), 12:38 am (NE-2)]
o In the flip of Maine, Trump is all but assured to win the state of Nebraska, but the odd electoral college
system set up by the state gives Harris a very good chance of picking up a single electoral vote from
Nebraska as Obama, Clinton, and Biden all did.
o Senate: An odd one, the incumbent Republican Deb Fisher is risking a loss not against a democrat but
an independent candidate, car mechanic Dan Osborn. Osborn is a wild card, suggesting that he
wouldn’t vote to give control of the chamber to the democrats OR republicans, but he would eliminate
a republican senator which is almost as good as a win for the dems.
● New York [9:02 pm / 9:00 pm / 9:00 pm]
o If New York is not called at 9:00 PM, assume hell has frozen over.
● Texas [9:02 pm / 9:29 pm / 11:40 pm]
o Texas is the bedrock of the Republican electoral college strategy but has been starting to show signs of
slowly creeping towards the democrats. In 2012 Romney won by 16 points. In 2012 Trump won by 9
points. In 2020, Trump won by 5.6 points. It is very unlikely Harris and the dems can win texas but…
o Senate: …narrowing Trump’s margin could help them maintain control of the senate. Incumbent GOP
Senator Ted Cruz is fairly unpopular in his home state and is running against Colin Allred, a reasonably
popular democratic candidate. Polling shows them well within the margin of error. Defeating Ted Cruz
would be a huge win for the democrats in maintaining senate control.
● Wisconsin [11:19 pm / 2:29 am / 2:08 pm, day after the election]
o Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 by 22,700 votes. Biden won in 2020 by 20,600 votes. Wisconsin is part of
the “Blue Wall” and as such is a must-win state for Harris. Its gonna be close.
Election Timeline 2024:
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10 p.m. Montana (R), Nevada (?), Utah (R)

● Nevada [11:16 pm / 12:37 am / 11:25 am November 7th 4 days after the election]
o Obama, Clinton, and Biden all won Nevada, but polls have shown a very close race here. Its 6 electoral
votes make it possibly the least important swing state (words I may live to regret) but its a good
indicator of where the election is going in the southwest, particularly nearby Arizona.
o Senate: Incumbent Dem Jackie Rosen is fighting off a challenge from GOP Nominee Sam Brown. While
Brown looked stronger in the summer, Rosen has pulled away as of late, but this is a potential target for
the GOP.
● Montana [11:34 pm / 11:17 pm / 11:27 pm]
o Harris has no shot here, we’re not here for her. If Trump loses Montana try and grab one of those
magical flying pigs that will have started appearing.
o Senate: Democratic Incumbent Jon Tester was long popular in the state, but being a Democratic senator
in a state that voted for Trump in 2020 by 16 points is not a fun job. Polling has pretty consistently
shown Tester losing to his republican rival and Trump fan Tim Sheehy. Between Montana and West
Virginia that would give the Republicans the +2 senators they need to take control of the chamber.

11 p.m. California (D), Hawaii (D), Oregon (D) Washington (D)

● Boring as heck.

1 a.m Alaska (R)

● Dems had some mild hopes from some closer than expected polling here, but its overwhelmingly likely to vote
for trump. I’m not even gonna put the times up. (Though the at-large house race should be interesting, we’re
not tracking that)