Docment 1
Docment 1
14 14
12
12
NEPAD objective
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 0
Uganda NEPAD Nigeria 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
400
East Asia
350
300
South Asia
Latin America
250
200
SS-Africa
150
100
100 120 140 160 180 200
Area (1961=100)
300 40
East Asia
35
250 ME&N Africa
30
200 South Asia
25
150 20
South Asia
LAC 15
100
Latin America
ME&N Africa 10
50
SS-Africa
SS-Africa 5
0
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Stagnant yields are associated with low fertilizer use and limited
irrigated area. Understanding the determinants of yield growth 12
(technology adoption) is a major research challenge
II. Current crises and resurgence of demands on agriculture for development
100 120
SS-Africa
110
80 South Asia
100
60
90
Latin America
40 80
70
20
East Asia
60
0
50
LAC ECA SSA SAS MNA EAP World
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
75% of world poor are still rural, and rural poverty is rising in 13SS-
Africa and South Asia: Key to meet MDG#1
II. Current crises and resurgence of demands on agriculture for development
India: Mean per capita expenditure by sector in constant LCU China: Mean per capita expenditure by sector
(Average annual growth rate 1983-05 in parenthesis) in constant LCU
410
Urban(1.43/year) 1200
390
Urban
1000
370
350 800
330
600
Rural(0.92)
Rural
310
400
290
270 200
250 0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
EAP SA LAC SSA
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
-0.7
1990-99 2000-05
18
Economics of agricultural
development: Transition process
Subsistence farming
19
The Structure of Agrarian Systems in the
Developing World
Three Systems of Agriculture
qAccording to the World Bank’s 2008 World
Development Report, there are three quite
different situations found among developing
countries.
qFirst, in what the report terms agriculture-
based countries , agriculture is still a major
source of economic growth—although mainly
because agriculture makes up such a large
share of GDP. 20
qThe World Bank estimates that agriculture accounts
for some 32% of GDP growth on average in these
countries, in which 417 million people live. More than
two-thirds of the poor of these countries live in rural
areas.
qSome 82% of the rural population of sub-Saharan
Africa lives in these countries.
qIt also includes a few countries outside the region,
such as Laos. And a few African countries, such as
Senegal, are undergoing transformation.
21
qSecond, most of the world’s rural people—
some 2.2 billi on—li ve in what the report
categorizes as transforming countries, in
which the share of the poor who are rural is
v e r y h i gh (a l m o s t 8 0 % o n a v e r a g e ) b u t
agriculture now contributes only a small
share to GDP growth (7% on average).
25
Roles of agriculture in economic
development
Agriculture plays a major role in
economic development
qIt can enhance economic growth, but it can
also constraint it
qIt is legitimate to observe that each country in
its process of growth has to solve its ‘agrarian
question’ in order to reach a sustainable and
balanced growth
qThe type and quality of growth depends on the
ways in which the agrarian question is solved.
Three major theoretical approaches explain
the role of agriculture in economic growth
qThe theories that stress the passive role of
agriculture as supplier of resources to the
economy (Lewis, Fei-Ranis, Jorgenson; 1950-
60)
qThe theories that stress the active role of
agriculture as a sector that is able to promote
economic growth due to specific actions
and behaviour (Mellor; 1970-90)
qThe theories that stress the active role of
agriculture as a sector that is able to promote
sustainable economic growth (FAO, 2000)
The first approach is based on a dualistic view of
the economy inherited by the Classicals
qAgriculture is a backward sector, while
industry is modern and advanced.
qTechnical backwardness is due to institutional
and social constraints and gives origin to
productivity and income differentials among
sectors.
qTechnical backwardness is at the origin of the
subaltern role of agriculture in economic
growth
Agriculture produces a surplus that
needs to be transferred to the
economy
qI t h a s i n c re a s e d r u r a l po v e r ty a n d f o o d
insecurity
Also a ‘weak’ version of the approach exists
qF a r m e r s i n c r e a s e t h e i r c o n s u m p t i o n , b o t h o f
production means and consumption goods
300
250
metric tonnes, millions
200
150
100
50
0
1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1980 1985 1988 1992 1996 2002
Ye ar
qThe issue is not about running out of surplus
land, but our ability to increase the yields of
existing arable land to meet the needs of an
increasing population.
qResearch shows that the planet is not close to
its biological limit.
qThe real danger of a long-term food crisis
arises from a different source – internal social
and economic barriers to technical
progress in agriculture.
Food Supply and Famine
qF a m i n e i s f a r m o r e a p r o b l e m o f f o o d
distribution than of food production.
§ Food-for-work programs
80000
70000
1,000 metric tonnes of
60000
50000 Latin America
nutrient
Far East
40000
Near East
30000 Africa
20000
10000
0
1969 1979 1984 1988 1993 2002
Year
120
100
(indices 2001 = 100)
80 World
South America
60
Asia
40 Africa
20
0
1975 1985 1997 2001 2003
Year
qF a r m e r s o f t e n n e e d c r e d i t t o t a k e f u l l
advantage of their production opportunities.
qThey typically face unfavorable interest rates.
Rural money-lenders often charge over 100%
interest.
qUrban commercial banks are usually absent.
qWomen in particular have difficulty obtaining
credit when they farm land registered in the
name of an absentee husband.
The Grameen Bank Model
qIt targets the poorest of the poor, particularly rural
women
qNo collateral is required
qThe borrower is required to join a group from the
same village where members provide support to each
other and ensure repayment.
qBank personnel work with the poor women.
qThe bank is not profitable on its own and often
requires subsidies from international aid agencies.
qThose who repay their loans are eligible for further
credit.
Structure of 3rd World Agrarian
Systems
Two Kinds of World Agriculture
qS u b s i s t e n c e f a r m i n g : r i s k a v e r s i o n ,
uncertainty, and survival
Figure 5.1 Small-Farmer Attitudes towards
Risk: Why It Is Sometimes Rational to Resist
Innovation and Change
Figure 5.2 Crop Yield
Probability Densities of Two
Different Farming Techniques
Incentives under share cropping
64
320RK
The Economics of Agricultural Development:
Transition From Peasant to Commercial
Farming
c. A p pr opr i at i on o f l ar g e e s t a te s f o r n e w
settlement.
Why Land Reform is most urgent today:
1. Income inequalities and unemployment in
rural areas have worsened
2. Rapid population growth threatens further
worsening existing inequalities
3. R e c e n t a n d p o t e n t i a l t e c h n o l o g i c a l
breakthroughs in agriculture can be exploited
primarily by large and powerful rural
landholders and result in an increase in power,
wealth and capacity to resist future reform.
2. Supportive Policies
0.5 Bangladesh
0.4 Pakistan
Rep. Korea
Malaysia
0.3
0.2
0.1
Normal pattern
0.0
4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5
Log of GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$)
73
Successful structural transformations in Asia
IV. Why the continued under-use of
agriculture for development?
Structural transformation in Sub-Saharan Structural transformation in Latin America and
Africa Cross-section
Angola Caribbean Cross-section
Argentina
Benin Bolivia
Cameroon Brazil
1.0 1.0 Chile
Chad
Colombia
Cote d'Ivoire 0.9 Dominican Republic
0.9 Kenya Ecuador
Madagascar 0.8 Guatemala
0.8 Honduras
Niger
Chad Haiti
0.7 Nigeria 0.7 Mexico
Rwanda Peru
Senegal 0.6 Paraguay
0.6 El Salvador
South Africa
Togo 0.5 x Venezuela, RB
0.5 Tanzania
Cote d'Ivoire Togo
0.4 Zambia 0.4
Zimbabwe
0.3 0.3
Nigeria
0.2 0.2
South Africa
0.1 0.1
Normal pattern
0.0 0.0
4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5
Log of GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) Log of GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$)
81