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Decarbonization Prospects for the European Pulp and Paper Industry:

Different Development Pathways and Needed Actions

Article in Energies · January 2023

DOI: 10.3390/en16020746

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 energies
Article
Decarbonization Prospects for the European Pulp and Paper
Industry: Different Development Pathways and
Needed Actions
Satu Lipiäinen * , Eeva-Lotta Apajalahti and Esa Vakkilainen

LUT School of Energy Systems, LUT University, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland

* Correspondence: satu.lipiainen@lut.fi

Abstract: The pulp and paper industry (PPI) has several opportunities to contribute to meeting
prevailing climate targets. It can cut its own CO2 emissions, which currently account for 2% of
global industrial fossil CO2 emissions, and it has an opportunity to produce renewable energy,
fuels, and materials for other sectors. The purpose of this study is to improve understanding of the
decarbonization prospects of the PPI. The study provides insights on the magnitude of needed annual
renewal rates for several possible net-zero target years of industrial fossil CO2 emissions in the PPI
and discusses decarbonization opportunities, namely, energy and material efficiency improvement,
fuel switching, electrification, renewable energy production, carbon capture, and new products. The
effects of climate policies on the decarbonization opportunities are critically evaluated to provide
an overview of the current and future business environment of the European PPI. The focus is on
Europe, but other regions are analyzed briefly to widen the view. The analysis shows that there are
no major technical barriers to the fossil-free operation of the PPI, but the sector renovates slowly, and
many new opportunities are not implemented on a large scale due to immature technology, poor
economic feasibility, or unclear political environment.

Keywords: energy transition; pulp and paper industry; climate policy; bioenergy; CO2 emissions;
BECCS; biofuels; energy efficiency
Citation: Lipiäinen, S.; Apajalahti,
E.-L.; Vakkilainen, E.
Decarbonization Prospects for the
European Pulp and Paper Industry: 1. Introduction
Different Development Pathways Industrial energy consumption accounts for nearly 40% of total global energy con-
and Needed Actions. Energies 2023, sumption [1]. The energy use of industry is dominated by fossil fuels, and direct industrial
16, 746. https://doi.org/10.3390/ CO2 emissions were 8.7 GtCO2 in 2020, which represents 26% of global emissions. Industry
en16020746 has been considered as one of the most challenging sectors to decarbonize. The facilities
Academic Editor: Wen-Hsien Tsai have typically long lifetimes, and many technologies needed for decarbonization are still
in the development phase. The demand for industrial products is expected to rise in the
Received: 18 November 2022 future, which may increase CO2 emissions [2]. In addition to CO2 emission reductions, it is
Revised: 22 December 2022
expected that the industrial sector renovates by creating new products, services, additional
Accepted: 5 January 2023
markets, jobs, and new business models as well as shifts toward a circular and sustainable
Published: 9 January 2023
economy. Political guidance will play a central role in meeting the expectations.
Limitation of global warming to 1.5 ◦ C requires rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions
(GHG). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) estimates remaining carbon
Copyright: © 2023 by the authors.
budget at roughly 400–800 GtCO2 , and with the current annual emissions of 42 GtCO2 , the
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. budget will be surpassed in 10–19 years [3]. The European Union (EU) aims to be the first
This article is an open access article climate-neutral continent by 2050 [4]. In 2021, the EU tightened its 2030 CO2 emissions
distributed under the terms and reduction target significantly: the cut must be 55% instead of 40% in comparison with 1990
conditions of the Creative Commons levels [4,5]. The new target includes improvements in land use, land use change, and the
Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// forestry (LULUCF) sector. Other targets were tightened as well to achieve the ambitious
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ CO2 emissions reduction goal. A binding target for the share of renewable energy in the
4.0/). energy mix in 2030 increased from 32% to 40%, and the energy efficiency improvement (EEI)

Energies 2023, 16, 746. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16020746 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/energies

Energies 2023, 16, 746 2 of 18

should deliver 36–39% lower energy consumption by 2030 in comparison with expected
levels. Additionally, a proposed revision of the Energy Efficiency Directive (EED) suggests
tightened requirements for annual energy savings: for 2024–2030, the annual EEI should
be increased from 0.8% to 1.5% [6]. Moreover, the EU aims to cut CO2 emissions by
strengthening natural carbon sinks: 310 MtCO2 /a should be absorbed and stored by 2030.
The ambitious EU policies affect the PPI that is the fourth largest industrial energy user
and the fifth largest CO2 emitter after the steel and iron, cement, chemicals and petrochem-
icals, and aluminum sectors [7]. Unlike other industrial sectors, the PPI uses significant
amounts of renewable energy: nearly 60% of all used fuels were bio-based in 2019 [8].
However, there is still 1.3 EJ of gas, 1.1 EJ of coal, and 0.2 EJ of oil in the PPI’s fuel mix
globally [8]. The PPI has notable potential to contribute to the emissions reduction. Many
studies claim the sector can significantly improve its energy efficiency [9–12]. Substantial
amounts of fossil fuels in processes and energy production can be replaced with bio-based
alternatives [13,14]. Recent publications suggest that pulp mills may provide a platform for
negative emissions using bioenergy carbon capture and storage or utilization (BECCS/U)
technologies [15,16]. Due to the availability of wood residues and excess energy, many
mills can produce biomaterials and biofuels or e-fuels that are highly needed in sectors that
are difficult to electrify [17].
The aim of this study is to improve the understanding of the decarbonization prospects
of the European PPI and critically evaluate the effects of various policies of the upcoming
EU Green Deal on business environment and decarbonization opportunities for the PPI.
The study considers the following issues: (1) a required investment rate (the approximate
renewal rate) for several possible net-zero target years of industrial CO2 emissions in the
PPI, (2) opportunities to cut CO2 emissions within the PPI and changes caused by possible
incentives to create negative emissions to outline what should be changed from a policy
point of view to enable an efficient decarbonization of the PPI, and (3) differences between
developing countries and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
(OECD) countries. The studied decarbonization prospects focus on industrial operations of
the European PPI, leaving, for example, offsite electricity production, transport, and forest
management outside the scope. It is expected that the energy and transport sectors will
decarbonize in the future, and harvesting of forest by the PPI does not surpass the annual
growth rate.

2. Materials and Methods

Evaluation of development opportunities requires understanding of the current state.
This section briefly introduces the current state of the European PPI, presents the methods
utilized in this study, and introduces the used data sources and background assumptions.

2.1. Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions in the European Pulp and Paper Industry
The current status of the European PPI is presented in Table 1. The presented values
were based on the Confederation of European Paper Industries (CEPI) database presenting
the situation in 2020 [18]. The data covered ~91% of European pulp and paper production,
and thus, the values were scaled to cover the whole of Europe.

Table 1. Current status of the European pulp and paper industry. Data from CEPI [18].

Market Pulp Paper/Board Electricity Consump- Fossil Fossil/Biogenic

Biofuels
Production Production tion/Production/Sale Fuels 1 CO2 Emissions 2
(PJ/a)
(Mtpulp /a) (Mtpaper /a) (TWh/a) (PJ/a) (MtCO2 /a)
7 98 104/56/−13 491 829 34/92
1 87% natural gas, 7% coal, 4% fuel oil, and 2% other fossil fuels. 2 Fossil emissions include industrial CO2
emissions. Biogenic CO2 emissions are estimated utilizing fuel mix and emission intensity of 112 kgCO2 /GJ
for biofuels.
 Biofuels
Production Production tion/Production/Sale Fuels 1 CO2 Emissions 2
(PJ/a)
(Mtpulp/a) (Mtpaper/a) (TWh/a) (PJ/a) (MtCO2/a)
7 98 104/56/−13 491 829 34/92
1 87% natural gas, 7% coal, 4% fuel oil, and 2% other fossil fuels. 2 Fossil emissions include industrial
Energies 2023, 16, 746
CO2 emissions. Biogenic CO2 emissions are estimated utilizing fuel mix and emission intensity of 3 of 18
112 kgCO2/GJ for biofuels.

The European The Commission

Europeanhas created a reference
Commission has created scenario for reflecting
a reference scenariothefordevel-
reflecting the devel-
opment of the opment
EU energy of the EU energy system, transport, and GHG emissions [19].took
system, transport, and GHG emissions [19]. The scenario The scenario took
into account the EU-level
into account policies adopted
the EU-level until the
policies end ofuntil
adopted 2019,the
member
end of state
2019,projections,
member state projections,
national contributions, and planned policies,
national contributions, as well
and planned as fuel prices,
policies, as well macro-economics, and
as fuel prices, macro-economics, and
technology trends. As a large
technology trends.andAsenergy-intensive sector, the PPI
a large and energy-intensive wasthe
sector, included
PPI wasinincluded
the in the Eu-
European Commission’s future projections.
ropean Commission’s Figure 1 presents
future projections. Figure 1the current
presents thestate andstate
current ex- and expected
pected development of energy use in the European PPI. The scenario claimed that
development of energy use in the European PPI. The scenario claimed that the role of the role
of electricity inelectricity
the energy mixenergy
in the wouldmix increase.
wouldThe already
increase. The low use oflow
already solid
useand liquid
of solid and liquid fossil
fossil fuels would
fuelsbewould
practically phased out.
be practically Theout.
phased use Theof bioenergy for energy
use of bioenergy decreased
for energy as
decreased as a result
a result of EEI,ofandEEI,natural gas was
and natural gasexpected to remain
was expected in theinenergy
to remain mix. mix.
the energy The scenario
The scenario assumed
assumed that technologies for emission
that technologies abatement,
for emission i.e., carbon
abatement, capture
i.e., carbon technologies,
capture were were difficult
technologies,
difficult to adopt. The projection
to adopt. expected
The projection that fossil
expected that fuel
fossiluse
fuelinuse
the in
millthesites
millwould de- decrease by
sites would
crease by 44%,44%,which led toled
which a significant reduction
to a significant in direct
reduction fossilfossil
in direct CO2 emissions.
CO2 emissions.DespiteDespite that, the
that, the PPI can,
PPIand
can,needs to, doto,
and needs more.
do more.

2015 2050

29 %
36 %
39 % 39 %

360 TWh 290 TWh

8%

14 % 8%
19 %
3%
2%
1% 1%
Electricity Liquids
Heat Gas
Solids Other (biomass, waste, H2)

Figure 1. EnergyFigure
use in1.the European
Energy use inpulp and paper
the European industry
pulp in 2015
and paper and 2050.
industry Data
in 2015 from
and 2050.Euro-
Data from European
pean Commission [19].
Commission [19].

It should be noted that the

It should be scenario was
noted that thepublished in 2021.
scenario was The geopolitical
published situation
in 2021. The geopolitical situation
in Europe changed in 2022, which has significantly affected the energy prices
in Europe changed in 2022, which has significantly affected the energy and energy
prices and energy
supply security. The changes
supply security. in
Thethe business
changes environment
in the could lead could
business environment to rapid develop-
lead to rapid development,
ment, for example, to an accelerated
for example, reduction
to an accelerated of fossil of
reduction fuels.
fossil fuels.

2.2. Evaluation 2.2.

of theEvaluation
Future Prospects of COProspects
of the Future 2 Emissions
of CO2 Emissions
The business environment
The businesshas a significant
environment haseffect on the operation
a significant effect on of
thean industrial
operation of an industrial
sector, and therefore, a brief
sector, and review awas
therefore, conducted
brief review was to provide
conducted insights on expected
to provide insightsandon expected and
ongoing futureongoing
trends. future trends. The
The European European
Emission Emission
Trading System Trading
(EU ETS)System
is one(EUof ETS)
the is one of the
most important most important
measures measures
for CO for CO
2 emissions emissions
reduction
2 in reduction
Europe, andin
it Europe,
thus and
affects it thus affects the
the
businessofenvironment
business environment of the
the PPI. Hence, thePPI. Hence,
effect of thethe
EUeffect
ETS ofonthe
theEUPPIETS
wason the PPI was looked
looked
at in this study.atThe
in this study. The
participants participants
of the ETS pay forof the
the ETS payfossil
emitted for the
COemitted fossilIn
2 emissions. COits2 emissions. In
its first 15 years
first 15 years (2005‒2020), (2005–2020),
the EU ETS did nottheexceed
EU ETS did notprice
a carbon exceed a carbon
of EUR price
30/tCO of EUR 30/tCO2 ,
2, but
but at the beginning of 2022, the price was almost EUR 100/tCO2 [20]. In this study, the
effect of the high carbon price (EUR 100/tCO2 ) on different pulp and paper mill types was
calculated. Data on fossil CO2 emissions and production volumes of different mill types
from every Finnish and Swedish mill were collected during previous studies [21–23] and
were used in this study as an illustrative example of the differences between mill types. The
mills were grouped based on their main products. The costs of the EU ETS were divided
by production volumes to receive the effect of ETS on the production cost of pulp and
paper. The structure of the Finnish and Swedish PPI is not similar to the European PPI.
Many European countries focus on paper production, whereas Finland and Sweden are
Energies 2023, 16, 746 4 of 18

important pulp producers. However, the data on the Finnish and Swedish mills provided a
good approximation of the differences between the mill types.
A required renewal rate was calculated for the European PPI within several net-zero
target years to evaluate the magnitude of needed annual changes. The key assumption
was that new or renovated capacity does not emit any fossil CO2 . The renewal rate was
calculated for constant production volumes. Both production volumes and CO2 emissions
were based on the 2019 levels presented in Table 1. Therefore, it was calculated how much
existing capacity needed to be replaced annually in order to proceed from 2019 fossil
CO2 emission level to a PPI that did not emit direct fossil CO2 emissions in the mills.
The calculations and assumptions were rough but provided indicative insights on the
magnitude of needed renewal rates.
In addition to discussion on changes in business environment and needed renewal
rates, this study looked at the future opportunities of the PPI. The potentials of different
development paths were evaluated based on previous studies and current volume and
structure of the production in the European PPI. The political environment will play a
major role in the development of the PPI, and thus, the expected effects and importance
of prevailing and upcoming policy measures were discussed. The study highlighted the
improvement potential and outlined what should be changed from a policy point of view
to enable an efficient decarbonization of the PPI. The study utilized data on the Finnish
and Swedish forest industries gathered during the authors’ previous studies [21–23] as
illustrative examples on the ongoing industrial development. Finland and Sweden have
been forerunners in energy-efficient operation and decarbonization of the PPI, and thus, the
countries provide interesting insights. However, it was not expected that the European PPI
would follow the same pathways as the Finnish and Swedish ones, because the structure of
the PPI varies significantly within the countries.
Reduction of energy consumption was evaluated taking into account energy efficiency
improvement and changes in production mix. This was estimated using production vol-
umes from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) [24] and
specific energy consumption (SEC) values provided by Farla et al. [25]. Although the
SEC values (Table 2) were estimated already in 1997 and energy efficiency has improved
since then, the values illustrate differences between pulp and paper grades and can there-
fore be used for estimating changes in energy consumption caused by the changes in
production mix.

Table 2. Examples of the energy consumptions of different products. Data from Farla et al. [25].

Electricity Heat Electricity Heat

Paper Grade Pulp Grade
(MWh/t) (GJ/t) (MWh/t) (GJ/t)
Newsprint 0.39 2.5 Mechanical pulp 1.47 −2.1
Printing and writing 0.56 7.0 Chemical pulp 0.69 10.0
Packaging materials 0.42 5.0 Recycled fiber input 0.39 0.4
Hygiene papers 0.42 5.0
Other papers 0.5 6.0

Opportunities for fuel switching and electrification were investigated by mapping

how the PPI uses fossil fuels at the moment and how those fuels could be replaced by
fossil-free energy sources. In addition to fossil fuels in energy production, PPI processes
that combust fuels were discussed as well. Lime kiln is the most significant emission
source in the sulphate (kraft) pulp mill. Finland and Sweden have been forerunners in fuel
switching in lime kilns, and therefore, the fuel use in the lime kilns in Finland was studied
by collecting data from environmental reports and permits [26] mapping how mills have
succeeded in fuel switching.
Opportunities to provide additional CO2 savings were considered looking at increased
renewable electricity production and novel opportunities. A literature survey was con-
ducted to improve understanding of the opportunities. A simplified mass and energy
Energies 2023, 16, 746 5 of 18

balance for a typical kraft pulp mill was constructed to illustrate the potential of a pulp mill
as a producer of bio-based side streams, renewable electricity, and CO2 . The mill balance
was based on a mill model used in previous studies [27,28]. Based on the collected data,
the potential, the effects of new processes on the mills, and the magnitudes of possible CO2
savings were estimated.

2.3. Distribution and Progress of the CO2 Emissions in the Global Pulp and Paper Industry
The European PPI covers only approximately one-fourth of the global pulp and paper
production, and therefore, it is important to briefly widen the perspective of this study
to other PPI countries. A geographical distribution of fossil and biogenic CO2 emissions
originating from global pulp and paper production was evaluated to understand the role
of different regions in CO2 emissions generation. The expected progress is discussed by
comparing the development of the PPI in the OECD countries and developing countries.
CO2 emissions were estimated for all continents that produce pulp and paper (Europe,
North America, South America, Australia, Asia, and Africa). In this study, the continents
were compared, but it should be noted that there were differences also within the countries
located on the same continent. Data on CO2 emissions were collected, but to the authors’
knowledge, no comprehensive statistics on regional emissions or fuel use of the PPI exist,
and especially biogenic CO2 emissions are poorly reported. Thus, when the emission data
were not available, the CO2 emissions were estimated by the authors.
Due to variation in data availability, two main approaches were used for estimating
the CO2 emissions of the regions. In the first approach, the emissions were calculated by
multiplying fuel use by CO2 emission intensity of the fuel (Equation (1)).
n
CO2 emission 1 = ∑ Fi Ii (1)
i =1

where Fi stands for fuel consumption by fuel type (GJ), and Ii is the CO2 emission intensity
of a certain fuel (kgCO2 /GJ). The second approach utilized production volumes of the
regions and specific CO2 emissions of products (Equation (2)).
n
CO2 emission 2 = ∑ Pi ii (2)
i =1

where Pi stands for production volume (tons), and ii is the specific fossil CO2 emissions of
the product (kgCO2 /ton).
CO2 emission intensities were adopted from a comprehensive fuel properties database
provided by the Statistic Finland [29]. Production volumes were collected from FAO [24],
and reports on energy use and emissions [18,30–33] were utilized. Data on the use of biofu-
els were poorly available, and thus, assumptions were needed to calculate the consumption
of biofuels to be able to estimate the emissions. Moreover, the calcination process in kraft
pulp mills generates biogenic CO2 emissions. Due to the lack of data, the biogenic CO2
emissions from calcination were calculated using production volumes and an average value
for the emissions. The following assumptions were used:
• Pulp production generates approximately 19 GJ/ADt of black liquor and 0.7–3 GJ/ADt
of wood residues, which are typically combusted to energy [34].
• The calcination process in chemical pulp mills produces about 196 kgCO2 /ADt of
biogenic CO2 [35].
The total fuel use provided by the International Energy Agency (IEA) [1] was utilized
to estimate global fossil and biogenic CO2 emissions of the PPI. The overall emissions were
used to evaluate the validity of the regional values.
 GJ/ADt of wood residues, which are typically combusted to energy [34].
• The calcination process in chemical pulp mills produces about 196 kgCO2/ADt of
biogenic CO2 [35].
The total fuel use provided by the International Energy Agency (IEA) [1] was utilized
to estimate global fossil and biogenic CO2 emissions of the PPI. The overall emissions were
Energies 2023, 16, 746 6 of 18
used to evaluate the validity of the regional values.

3. Results and Discussion

3. Results and Discussion
This section presents future prospects for the European PPI. Expected changes in the
businessThisenvironment
section presents future prospects
are reviewed, formagnitude
and the the European PPI.required
of the Expected changes
annual in the
renewal
business
rate environment
is evaluated. are reviewed,
The section presents and the magnitude
the possible of the required
development pathwaysannual renewal
and measures
rateCO
for is 2evaluated.
emissions The sectionThe
reduction. presents
studythe possiblehow
discusses development
the current pathways
political and measures
environment
for CO emissions reduction. The study discusses how the current political
guides the sector’s transformation and points out what should be changed in a policy
2 environment
guidesoftheview
point sector’s transformation
to enable and points
an efficient out what should
decarbonization. be changed
Finally, in a policy
the section point
highlights
differences in progress on the decarbonization of the OECD and developing countries. in
of view to enable an efficient decarbonization. Finally, the section highlights differences
progress on the decarbonization of the OECD and developing countries.
3.1. Future Prospects of CO2 Emissions
3.1. Future Prospects of CO2 Emissions
The business environment of the PPI is continuously changing. Prices on CO2
The business environment of the PPI is continuously changing. Prices on CO2 emis-
emissions and energy are increasing, demand for products is changing, and competition
sions and energy are increasing, demand for products is changing, and competition on
on biomass may grow. The reaching of net-zero industrial emissions depends on the
biomass may grow. The reaching of net-zero industrial emissions depends on the business
business environment, and even if the environment would be suitable, significant
environment, and even if the environment would be suitable, significant renovations are
renovations are needed to achieve a fossil CO2-neutral sector.
needed to achieve a fossil CO2 -neutral sector.
3.1.1.
3.1.1.Changes
Changesin inthe
theBusiness
BusinessEnvironment
Environment
The
The demand for differentproducts
demand for different productsisis changing,
changing,which
whichforces
forcesmills
millstoto modify
modifytheirtheir
product portfolio. The need for packaging materials is increasing, for
product portfolio. The need for packaging materials is increasing, for example, due to example, due to
grow-
growing
ing globalglobal
marketsmarkets and to
and the need thesubstitute
need to substitute
plastic packages, plastic
whereas packages, whereas
digitalization has
digitalization
led to a notablyhasdecreasing
led to a notably
demanddecreasing
for graphicdemand
papers inforthegraphic
OECD papers in the
countries. OECD
In addition
countries. In addition
to traditional products,to thetraditional
demand for products, the demand
several kinds of novelfor several kinds
wood-based of novel
solutions such
wood-based solutions
as textiles is increasing.such as textiles is increasing.
Increasing
Increasingprices
pricesfor
forenergy
energyandandespecially
especially COCO22will
willforce
forcemills
millstotochange
changetheir
theirenergy
energy
use
usepractices.
practices.The
Theeffect
effectofofhigh
highETSETSprices
pricesononthe
thepulp
pulpand
andpaper
papermills
millsisispresented
presentedin in
Figure
Figure2.2.The
Theeffect
effectvaries
variesnotably
notablywithin
withinthethemills.
mills.The
Thevariation
variationcancanbe becaused
causedby byseveral
several
factors, suchas as
factors, such energy
energy efficiency,
efficiency, integration
integration rate of therate
mills,ofimplemented
the mills, decarbonization
implemented
decarbonization actions,
actions, or the energy or the
supply energy
strategy. supply clear
However, strategy. However,
differences between clearmill
differences
types can
between
be seen. mill types can be seen.

100
Specific
Specific fossil CO2CO
fossil emissions [kgCO2/t]
emissions [kgCO
2 2/t]
1000 90
Costincrease
Cost increase
[e/t],[EUR/t],
ETS pricewhen ETS
100e/tCO2] price is EUR 100/tCO2
Specific CO2 emissions [kgCO2/t]

AVG increseincrease
Average in costs [e/t]
in costs [EUR/t] 80
800
70
Increase in costs [EUR/t]

60
600
50

40
400
30

200 20

10

0 Market
0
Market Stand-alone Integrated Integrated
chemical pulp mechanical paper mills chemical pulp mechanical pulp and
mills pulp mills and paper mills paper mills

Figure 2. Impact of high EU ETS carbon prices (EUR 100/tCO2 ) on the production costs of different
mill types.

Stand-alone paper mills do not have large bio-based side streams that could be com-
busted to energy, and therefore, those mills typically utilize fossil fuel for both energy
production and paper drying. Thus, stand-alone paper mills have the greatest pressure to
cut emissions. Applying a bubble policy [36], which allows even increasing the emissions in
some facilities as long as total emissions are reducing, could be the most cost-effective way
toward a low-carbon sector. That is because, for example, the mills with access to bio-based
waste streams may have better opportunities to replace fossil fuels by intensifying the use
Energies 2023, 16, 746 7 of 18

of biomass. Chemical pulp mills represent mill types that can already meet most of their
energy demand by bio-based fuels. If a chemical pulp mill is integrated with a paper mill,
the energy consumption of the unit increases, and current mills typically require fossil
fuels in addition to biofuels. The direct effect of EU ETS is low in the case of mechanical
pulp mills because most of those mills cover their energy demand largely by purchasing
electricity. However, the EU ETS affects indirectly also the prices of purchased electricity
and the costs of transportation.
The production costs of pulp and paper vary significantly, and typically, those costs are
not publicly available. RISI [37] presents that the production cost for paper in Europe could
be around EUR 500/ton, and hence, the EU ETS can increase the costs notably in some mills.
It should be noted that at the moment, energy-intensive industries receive a significant
amount of free emission allowances to secure competitiveness, which may change in the
future. Moreover, the high EU ETS prices can increase competition on biomass that does
not belong to the EU ETS. The EU ETS is not the only factor affecting the energy use of the
PPI at the moment. The prices for fossil fuels are expected to rise. Electricity prices are
currently unusually high, but future development remains to be seen.
In addition to the EU ETS, other factors may influence the availability of bio-based raw
materials. Ambitious targets for saving and restoring biodiversity may affect the markets
for raw materials. The EU has published a biodiversity strategy, which expands protected
land and sea areas to 30% in Europe [38]. Moreover, there is a target to cut a significant
amount of CO2 emissions by strengthening natural carbon sinks. The targets have led to
discussions on the acceptable harvesting rates.

3.1.2. Required Investment Rates for Net-Zero Target Years of Industrial CO2 Emissions
The required renewal rates for different net-zero target years in the European PPI
were calculated assuming that the new-built or renewed capacity is fossil-free. The results
presented in Table 3 show that decarbonization of the sector within the next 10–20 years
requires large annual investments. Reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 requires moderate
but continuous annual improvements. The energy efficiency of existing technologies and
processes increases continuously, and new opportunities come into the markets. Thus,
the sector has an opportunity to move toward significantly more sustainable operation.
Despite that, it should be noted that the pulp and paper mills have long lifetimes, and the
renovation rate is slow. A typical technical lifetime of a mill is between 30 and 50 years,
and thus, the renewal rate in Europe is roughly 2–3% of the capacity per year. The fossil
CO2 emission reduction within the PPI cannot be considered as a straightforward task. The
annual renewal rates will vary depending for example on the global economy. In addition,
some CO2 sources are significantly easier to eliminate than others; for example, switching
to electric dryers does not require large changes in the mills, whereas renewal of the energy
system of a whole mill is a huge investment. The following sections will evaluate the
decarbonization opportunities and potential.

Table 3. Required renewal rates for achieving carbon neutrality in different net-zero target years.

Net-Zero Target Year 2030 2040 2050

Required renewal rate 9.1% 4.8% 3.2%

3.2. Reduction of Energy Consumption

The lion’s share of the CO2 emissions of the PPI industry originates from energy
production, and therefore, a decrease in energy consumption is key in emissions reduction.
The energy consumption of the sector depends strongly on the production volume and
mix. Energy can be saved by EEI, for example, by recovering waste heat and by material
efficiency improvement, but also the production mix and volume of the sector affect the
energy consumption.
 The lion’s share of the CO2 emissions of the PPI industry originates from energy pro-
duction, and therefore, a decrease in energy consumption is key in emissions reduction.
The energy consumption of the sector depends strongly on the production volume and
mix. Energy can be saved by EEI, for example, by recovering waste heat and by material
Energies 2023, 16, 746 efficiency improvement, but also the production mix and volume of the sector affect8 of 18
the
energy consumption.

3.2.1.
3.2.1. Changes
Changes inin Production
Production Volume
Volume and Mix
The
The total production
productionvolumevolumeininthe theEuropean
European PPIPPI has
has been
been rather
rather stable
stable during
during the
the last
last 10 years,
10 years, but structure
but the the structure has changed
has changed (Figure
(Figure 3). share
3). The The share of wrapping
of wrapping and pack-
and packaging
aging materials
materials in paperin paper production
production increasedincreased
from 40%fromto 40%
59% to 59% between
between 2000 and 2000 and
2020, 2020,
and the
and
sharethe
of share
graphicof papers
graphicdropped
papers dropped
from 49%from 49%Itto
to 28%. 28%.
can It can be that
be expected expected that will
the trend the
trend will Typically,
continue. continue. theTypically,
productionthe production
of packaging of materials
packagingconsumes
materialsaround
consumes 20%around
to 30%
less to
20% energy per energy
30% less ton than perthe
tonproduction of graphicofpapers.
than the production graphicThus,
papers.the structural
Thus, change
the structural
has an effect
change has anoneffect
the energy
on theconsumption. If the total
energy consumption. production
If the volume isvolume
total production kept constant,
is kept
and the share
constant, of packaging
and the materialsmaterials
share of packaging increasesincreases
to 75% byto2050,
75% by the2050,
expected annual heat
the expected an-
and electricity
nual savings due
heat and electricity to changes
savings in the production
due to changes mix is roughly
in the production 4%. Increased
mix is roughly 4%. In-
utilization
creased of recycled
utilization fibers in paper
of recycled fibers production has enabled
in paper production haslower energy
enabled consumption
lower energy con- in
the European
sumption PPI,
in the but the recycling
European PPI, but theraterecycling
is already high,
rate and nohigh,
is already majorandsavings are expected
no major savings
dueexpected
are to increased
due recycling rates
to increased [39]. rates [39].
recycling

200
Mechanical pulp Chemical pulp
Newsprint Printing and writing
Packaging Hygiene
150 Other
Production [Mt]

100

50

0
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018

Figure
Figure 3. Development of
3. Development ofpulp
pulpand
andpaper
paper production
production in in
thethe European
European pulppulp
and and paper
paper industry.
industry. Data
Data
from from
FAO FAO
[24]. [24].

The
The structural
structural changes
changes of of the
the PPI
PPI are
are not
not limited
limited to changes between
to changes between conventional
conventional
pulp
pulp and paper grades. The sector has become interested in widening itsitsproduct
and paper grades. The sector has become interested in widening productportfolio,
portfo-
lio, which may affect notably the energy consumption of the whole sector.
which may affect notably the energy consumption of the whole sector. For example, if the For example, if
the sector starts to produce hydrogen-based products, the energy consumption
sector starts to produce hydrogen-based products, the energy consumption of the PPI will of the PPI
will increase
increase notably.
notably. OneOne illustrative
illustrative example
example ofof
thetheongoing
ongoingtransition
transitionisisthe
the UPM
UPM Leuna
Leuna
biorefinery in Germany [40]. The plant will start to produce wood-based
biorefinery in Germany [40]. The plant will start to produce wood-based chemicals in 2023. chemicals in
2023. If the biorefinery is statistically included in the PPI, the energy consumption
If the biorefinery is statistically included in the PPI, the energy consumption of the sector of the
sector will increase,
will increase, whereas whereas
energyenergy
demand demand in the chemical
in the chemical sector decreases
sector decreases as the bio-
as the biorefinery
refinery replaces current production. This highlights the challenge of setting
replaces current production. This highlights the challenge of setting energy savings targets energy sav-
ings targets The
for sectors. for sectors.
possibleThe
futurepossible future
products products
will will be
be discussed indiscussed
Section 3.4.in Section 3.4.

3.2.2. Energy
3.2.2. Energy Efficiency
Efficiency Improvement
The EEI
The EEI has
has been
been considered
considered the
the most
most cost-effective
cost-effective way
way toto reduce
reduce energy
energy use
use and
and
related CO22 emissions
related emissions [41].
[41]. Several
Several studies
studies have
have investigated
investigated energy
energy savings
savings potential
potential
through EEI
through EEI measures,
measures, and
and for
for example,
example, Moya
Moya and
and Pavel
Pavel [42]
[42] suggest
suggest that
that the
the European
European
PPI can cut its energy consumption cost effectively by 14% (~190 PJ) between 2015 and
2050, and the CEPI [43] claims that EEI can lead to a 7 MtCO2 /a emission reduction by
2050. In addition to allowing the reduction of fossil fuel use, the EEI may enable the
use of generated biomass elsewhere. Table 4 presents the development of specific energy
consumption in the Finnish PPI, which illustrates the continuous EEI. In spite of the EEI,
high-quality requirements may increase the consumption, as in the case of mechanical pulp.
Updating the existing mills to operate with the currently best available technologies can cut
energy demand notably, but emerging technologies are expected to enable even larger cuts;
Energies 2023, 16, 746 9 of 18

for example, the use of deep eutectic solvent may reduce the primary energy demand of
pulping by 40% [44]. However, the adoption of new technologies that significantly change
the pulping or paper-making processes may be difficult and slow due to concerns about
the effects on the operation.

Table 4. An example of development of specific energy consumptions. Estimates were created for the
Finnish pulp and paper industry based on Carlson and Heikkinen, and Pöyry [45,46].

Paper and
Type of Energy Year Chemical Pulp Mechanical Pulp
Paperboard
1970 14.2 0.1 6.7
1995 12.4 −1.5 6.0
Heat (GJ/t)
2015 11.1 −1.6 4.6
2035 9.0 −2.3 4.2
1970 717 1630 746
Electricity 1995 682 2320 711
(kWh/t) 2015 671 2361 606
2035 536 2164 557

A proposed revision of the EED calls for increasing the annual energy savings require-
ment for 2024–2030 from 0.8% to 1.5% [6]. As a large energy user, the PPI must significantly
contribute to the energy savings. The authors’ previous study shows that the Finnish and
Swedish PPIs managed to substantially improve their energy efficiency between 2002 and
2017 [21], but the improvement pace did not meet the requirements of the EED. Thus, the
improvement pace must be accelerated, and the need applies most probably also to other
PPI countries. The EEI can lead to notable savings in energy costs in energy-intensive indus-
tries, and therefore, it has been discussed if there is a real need to support the industrial EEI
by policy incentives or if market forces can drive the change toward energy savings [47].
However, barriers to EEI, such as technical risks or a lack of access to capital, are hindering
even the adoption of cost-effective measures [48]. Thus, political stimulation is needed for
overcoming the barriers.

3.3. Fuel Switching and Electrification

In the PPI, fossil fuels are used in steam production and pulping (lime kilns) and
papermaking (dryers) processes. All fossil fuels are technically possible to replace with
biofuels or electricity [49], but the likelihood to reach net-zero emissions depends on the
mill type. Modern chemical pulp mills can already achieve fossil carbon-free operation [50],
and consequently, it is realistic to expect that new-build mills do not need fossil fuels during
normal operation. Decarbonization of stand-alone paper mills is more challenging because
the energy production relies on fossil fuels instead of biomass, which is a dominating fuel
in the pulp mills. Currently, electricity and steam are produced in boilers that combust
mainly natural gas, but also some amounts of coal-fired boilers are used.
The pulp and paper-making processes are technically possible to decarbonize. Electricity-
based paper dryers are already used in some mills, and further electrification of the dryers
could reduce annual emissions by 1–2 MtCO2 in Europe [51]. Some mills have also stated
an aim to combust hydrogen in dryers [52]. Recent studies suggest that also lime kilns
can be electrified using electric gas-plasma technology in the future [53], which may be
an interesting opportunity especially for mills that have no excess biomass. In addition,
indirect electrification, i.e., the use of renewable hydrogen or hydrocarbon, is a possible but
currently costly and rather inefficient opportunity to decarbonize the lime kilns. So far, the
use of biofuels has been a leading solution as many pulp mills have bio-based residues that
can be combusted in lime kilns.
Production of pulp consumes approximately 250 kg/ADt of lime (CaO) [35], and
the production of lime requires 6–10 GJ/kgCaO of heat [54]. The European PPI produces
annually 32 Mt of kraft pulp, and mills combust mainly natural gas in the lime kilns, which
 indirect electrification, i.e., the use of renewable hydrogen or hydrocarbon, is a possible
but currently costly and rather inefficient opportunity to decarbonize the lime kilns. So
far, the use of biofuels has been a leading solution as many pulp mills have bio-based
residues that can be combusted in lime kilns.
Production of pulp consumes approximately 250 kg/ADt of lime (CaO) [35], and the
Energies 2023, 16, 746 production of lime requires 6–10 GJ/kgCaO of heat [54]. The European PPI produces 10 of 18
annu-
ally 32 Mt of kraft pulp, and mills combust mainly natural gas in the lime kilns, which
means that annual fossil CO2 emissions are around 3–4 MtCO2 or roughly 10% of total
industrial
means thatfossil COfossil
annual 2 emissions of the sector.
CO2 emissions At the moment,
are around 3–4 MtCO Finland and Sweden
2 or roughly 10% of have
total
been leading
industrial theCO
fossil decarbonization
2 emissions of ofthetheir lime
sector. Atkilns (Figure 4)
the moment, [21]. Thus,
Finland switching
and Sweden haveto
biofuels is feasible,
been leading but it comes withofsome
the decarbonization theireconomical and technical
lime kilns (Figure challenges,
4) [21]. especially
Thus, switching to
in cases of
biofuels retrofits.but
is feasible, Biofuels have
it comes different
with properties,and
some economical for technical
example,challenges,
lower heating value
especially
than conventionally
in cases used oil have
of retrofits. Biofuels and natural
differentgas, which make
properties, it difficultlower
for example, to operate
heating existing
value
than kilns
lime conventionally used oil and
without supporting natural
fossil gas,
fuels. It canwhich make itthat
be expected difficult to operate
new-build existing
lime kilns use
lime kilns
biofuels orwithout supporting
other renewable fossil fuels.Moreover,
alternatives. It can be expected that new-build
the availability of biomasslimevaries
kilns
use biofuels
within or other
the mills, which renewable alternatives.
affects the feasibilityMoreover, the availability
to use biofuel of biomass
for decarbonizing thevaries
lime
within the mills, which affects the feasibility to use biofuel for decarbonizing the lime kilns.
kilns.

Hydrogen Renewable
alternative
Wood powder

Lignin

Tall oil pitch

Fuel oil

Gasified biomass

Natural gas

0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500

Fuels [GWh/a]
Figure
Figure 4.
4. Estimated
Estimated current
current fuel
fuel mix
mix in
in lime
lime kilns
kilns of
of the
the Finnish
Finnish pulp
pulp and
and paper industry.
paper industry.

The
The estimate
estimate for
for the
the CO
CO22 emission
emissionreduction
reductionpotential
potentialof ofenergy
energyefficiency
efficiencyimprove-
improve-
ment
ment was wasatat7 7MtCO
MtCO 2/a./a.
2 In addition,
In addition, changes in production
changes in productionmix may mixleadmay tolead
lowertoenergy
lower
consumptions
energy consumptions and therefore lower emissions,
and therefore but the total
lower emissions, but fossil CO2fossil
the total emissionCO2reduction
emission
due to energy
reduction duesavings
to energy is estimated
savings istoestimated
remain below 10 MtCO
to remain below2/a. 10
It was
MtCO estimated
2 /a. It wasthatesti-
the
emission
mated that reduction potential
the emission of dryers
reduction and lime
potential of kilns
dryers are 1–2lime
and MtCO 2/a and
kilns 3–4 MtCO
are 1–2 MtCO22/a,/a
and thus, the decarbonization of processes can lead to an
and 3–4 MtCO2 /a, and thus, the decarbonization of processes can lead to an emission emission reduction of 4–6
MtCO
reduction2/a. As the European
of 4–6 MtCO2 /a.PPI Ascurrently
the European emitsPPI
34 MtCO 2/a, the
currently emitsdecarbonization
34 MtCO2 /a, the of energy
decar-
production
bonization of plays the largest
energy productionrole in the reaching
plays the largest carbon-neutral PPI. Ascarbon-neutral
role in the reaching the PPI has access PPI.
to
Aswood
the PPI residues and to
has access most
woodof the energy
residues andsupply
most isofalready
the energycovered
supplyusing renewables,
is already coveredin
using
the nearrenewables, in the near will
future, electrification future,
not electrification
play as significantwill not play
a role in as
thesignificant a rolein-
PPI as in other in
the PPI as
dustrial in other
sectors suchindustrial
as the steel sectors suchEven
industry. as the steel industry.
though part of theEven though
energy demandpartcanof the
be
energy demand
covered can be covered
by the intensified use ofby the intensified
current use of current
biofuels, biomass can bebiofuels,
considered biomass can be
as a limited
consideredand
resource, as atherefore,
limited resource, and therefore,
electricity-based electricity-based
solutions are also needed.solutions are also needed.
High-temperature
High-temperature
heat pumps have been heat seen
pumps as ahave been seen
significant partasofa the
significant part of supply
future energy the future energy
in the PPI
supply
[55]. in the PPI
Increasing [55]. Increasing
competition competition
for renewable for renewable
electricity and rising electricity
prices may andberising prices
a matter of
may be aObrist
concern. matteret ofal.
concern. Obrist
[55] claim thatetthe
al. [55]
Swissclaim
paper that the Swiss
industry thatpaper
doesindustry that does
not produce any
not produce
chemical pulpany chemical
can pulp canemissions
reach net-zero reach net-zero emissions
by 2050, but this bywould
2050, butleadthis
to would
an 8‒15% leadin-
to
an 8–15% increase in paper production costs. Moreover, the re-structuring
crease in paper production costs. Moreover, the re-structuring of energy supply and of energy supply
and processes requires significant modifications in the mills. In the long-term future, the
role of electricity may increase in the PPI as the increasing share of bio-based residues may
be utilized as products. Even though the direct use of electricity is the best solution in terms
of efficiency, it is possible that hydrogen will play a role in industrial energy systems as a
storage for renewable energy.

3.4. Opportunities to Provide Additional CO2 Savings

The PPI has access to sustainably harvested biomass. The raw materials cannot be
fully converted to pulp and paper, and therefore, large bio-based side streams enable the
sector to contribute to the decarbonization of other sectors by producing renewable energy,
Energies 2023, 16, 746 11 of 18

fuels, and products and capturing biogenic carbon. Hence, in addition to targeting the
cut of industrial emissions, the PPI’s potential to provide additional CO2 savings must
be exploited.

3.4.1. Additional Renewable Electricity Production

The PPI can increase its renewable electricity production. A recovery boiler is most
importantly a process component that regenerates used cooking chemicals in a kraft pulp
mill, but it is additionally a large steam and electricity producer. The most important
criterion for a recovery boiler has been high availability. Later, the mitigation of air emis-
sions became an issue. Currently, the increasing production of renewable electricity is a
key trend. An increase in steam parameters and black liquor dry solids contents and heat
recovery from flue gases as well as improved preheating of both water and air can lead to
notable growth in the electricity generation. According to Vakkilainen et al. [56], electricity
generation in modern recovery boilers increased by 20% within 10 years, and thus, veritable
opportunities for higher electricity production exist. Sweden is an example of a country
which has notably increased electricity generation in the PPI [21]. The most important
reasons behind the shift are an increase in the electricity price due to an electricity market
reformation as well as an introduction of the EU ETS and a green electricity certificate
system that supports the production of renewable electricity [57]. Thus, future energy
markets as well as incentives for renewable electricity production most probably affect the
development of electricity production in the PPI.
Table 5 presents recovery boiler parameters for an average European mill and for a
modern mill. Based on rough calculations presented by Valmet [58], it can be estimated
that if all European recovery boilers operated as modern boilers, renewable electricity
production could increase by roughly 7 TWh. If the electricity is used for replacing current
European electricity production with an emission intensity of 296 gCO2 /kWh [59], an
annual savings of approximately 2 MtCO2 could be achieved. It is noteworthy that the
additional energy production in the PPI conflicts with the energy efficiency target that aims
to limit energy consumption to a certain value; i.e., in spite of the increased production of
excess energy, the input energy to the mill might not change.

Table 5. Recovery boiler parameters: a European average and a modern mill.

Black Liquor Dry Steam Pressure and Steam Generation per

Recovery Boiler
Solid Content Temperature Input Dry Solids
European avg 1 77% 86 bar/486 ◦ C 3.64 kgsteam /kgds
Modern 2 83% 110 bar/515 ◦ C 4.35 kgsteam /kgds
1 Estimated using collected recovery boiler data. 2 Estimated based on [58].

Despite the potential to increase renewable electricity production, alternative routes

could lead to reduced generation. Processing of biomass to high-value products decreases
available combustible material. For example, lignin separation has become an attractive
option as lignin can be used as a versatile raw material or biofuel. Separating 30% of
the lignin in black liquor decreases the electricity production in the recovery boiler by
approximately 29% [60]. In addition, possible electrification may have an effect on onsite
electricity production; i.e., if electricity is used for heating purposes, production of electricity
in combined heat and power (CHP) units decreases.

3.4.2. Renewable Fuels and Materials

The PPI can play a notable role in creating bioeconomy. Its side streams can be utilized
in the production of biofuels (e.g., biogas and biodiesel) and bioproducts (e.g., textile fibers,
fertilizers, and lignin derivatives). As an example, Figure 5 presents a simplified balance
and opportunities of a northern stand-alone mill producing 600,000 ADt/a of softwood
pulp. The mill generates approximately 340 kg/ADt and 760 kg/ADt of wood residues
and dissolved lignin, which indicates the potential for enlarging the product portfolio to
 tricity in combined heat and power (CHP) units decreases.

3.4.2. Renewable Fuels and Materials

The PPI can play a notable role in creating bioeconomy. Its side streams can be uti-
lized in the production of biofuels (e.g., biogas and biodiesel) and bioproducts (e.g., textile
Energies 2023, 16, 746 12 of 18
fibers, fertilizers, and lignin derivatives). As an example, Figure 5 presents a simplified
balance and opportunities of a northern stand-alone mill producing 600,000 ADt/a of soft-
wood pulp. The mill generates approximately 340 kg/ADt and 760 kg/ADt of wood resi-
new bioproducts. duesIn and
spite dissolved lignin,
of several which indicates
opportunities andthe potential
existing for enlarging
pilot thenumber
plants, the product portfo-
lio to new bioproducts. In spite of several opportunities and existing
of large-scale retrofits in mills is low even though many technologies are available [17]. pilot plants, the num-
ber of large-scale retrofits in mills is low even though many technologies are available
Releasing the potential of PPI as a producer of new products requires a stable and consistent
[17]. Releasing the potential of PPI as a producer of new products requires a stable and
political framework including, for example, ambitious targets for bioenergy use or quota
consistent political framework including, for example, ambitious targets for bioenergy use
obligations [61]. or
Additionally, the PPI should have clear future prospects for affordable raw
quota obligations [61]. Additionally, the PPI should have clear future prospects for af-
materials. Currently, the role of biomass
fordable raw materials. in the EU’s
Currently, decarbonization
the role of biomass in thestrategies is slightly strate-
EU’s decarbonization
unclear, and thegies
roleisofslightly
forestsunclear,
as carbon
and sinks asofwell
the role as possible
forests as carboncompetition
sinks as well on biomasscompeti-
as possible
with other sectortion
creates uncertainties.
on biomass with other sector creates uncertainties.

Effluent Biofuel from sludge: HTC,

Wood: Hemicellulose treatment anaerobic digestion
4205 BDt/d extraction 42,700 m3/d

O2 Pulp:
Wood handling Cooking Screening Bleaching
delignification 1714 ADt/d

Wood residues
579 BDt/d Fuel
Evaporation Recovery boiler Causticization Lime kiln
3460 BDt/d 3 TJ/d

Biofuels and bioenergy:

Pulverizing Biofuels and bioenergy: 4.2 tCO2/d:
Torrefaction Lignin extraction Electricity Excess BECCS, BECCU
Pelletizing Black liquor gasification generation electricity
Pyrolysis Esterification and 74 MW 17 MW PtX: hydrogen,
Gasification hydrolysis of tall oil Steam turbine
methanol, methane,
Liquefaction Methanol purification gasoline, etc.
Electricity
ADt = air dry ton, BDt = bone dry ton consumption
HTC = hydrothermal carbonization 57 MW

Figure 5.
Figure 5. A northern A northern stand-alone
stand-alone mill producing
mill producing 600,000 ADt/a
600,000 ADt/a of softwood
of softwood pulp
pulp andand
itsits future
opportunities.
future opportunities.
3.4.3. Carbon Capture and Production of E-Fuels
3.4.3. Carbon Capture and Production of E-Fuels
Pulp mills have a unique opportunity to turn to carbon sinks using BECCS/U [16].
Pulp mills have a unique
Achieving opportunity
a carbon-neutral to turn
society tonot
might carbon sinks without
be possible using BECCS/U [16].technol-
carbon capture
Achieving a carbon-neutral
ogies [62], but society might
there has beennot beprogress
little possibleonwithout
CCS andcarbon capture
especially technolo-
BECCS. The possibili-
tieshas
gies [62], but there of BECCS in theprogress
been little PPI wereon already
CCS anddiscussed at theBECCS.
especially beginning Theof possibilities
the 21st century [63],
of BECCS in theand PPIJönsson
were et al. [64]discussed
already estimated that the beginning
at the European PPI of has
the a21st
large potential
century to capture
[63],
CO 2 (60 MtCO2/a). Post-combustion carbon capture using monoethanolamine (MEA) is a
and Jönsson et al. [64] estimated that the European PPI has a large potential to capture
CO2 (60 MtCO2 /a).commercially available process
Post-combustion carbon and thus the
capture most
using studied option for pulp
monoethanolamine (MEA)mills
is [64–67].
The process consumes approximately 3.8 GJ/tCO2 and 0.1 MWh/tCO2, of heat and electric-
a commercially available process and thus the most studied option for pulp mills [64–67].
ity [68], which means capturing 60 MtCO2/a would lead to additional heat and electricity
The process consumes approximately 3.8 GJ/tCO2 and 0.1 MWh/tCO2 , of heat and electric-
consumption of 228 PJ/a and 6 TWh/a. In addition to the effects on energy balance, ques-
ity [68], which means capturing 60 MtCO2 /a wouldutilization,
tions on storage sites, transportation,
lead to additional heat and electricity
and economic feasibility exist. Several
consumption of previous
228 PJ/astudies
and 6 underline
TWh/a. In a lack of economic incentives and clear balance,
addition to the effects on energy ques- and
policy framework,
tions on storagethey
sites, transportation, utilization, and economic feasibility exist. Several
call for recognizing negative CO2 emissions and crediting all removed CO2 emissions
previous studiesapart
underline a lack
from the of economic
origin [65,69–73].incentives
BECCS willandnot
clear
be policy
adopted framework, and clear
in mills without
they call for recognizing negative CO2 emissions and crediting all removed CO2 emissions
apart from the origin [65,69–73]. BECCS will not be adopted in mills without clear incen-
tives. Santos et al. [74] suggest that a negative CO2 credit of 42 e/tCO2 could overcome the
costs of carbon capture via calcium looping, and Onarheim et al. [65] claim that a negative
emissions credit of 60–80 e/tCO2 is needed to make BECCS attractive for the mills.
Captured CO2 can be combined with hydrogen (H2 ) to produce e-fuels such as
methane, methanol, gasoline, and ethanol [75]. E-fuels may play a versatile role in the
future energy system: they can substitute fossil fuels in energy production as well as in
the chemicals industry, balance intermittent renewable energy production by providing
energy storage and flexible load, and decrease the need for electricity grid reinforcement
by acting as an energy carrier [76]. The production of e-fuels consumes a lot of electric-
ity. For methane, methanol, and dimethyl ether, the electricity-to-fuel efficiencies are in
the range of 30–75% (1.33–3.33 MWhel /MWhfuel ), and the production requires roughly
0.21–0.28 tCO2 /MWhfuel [77]. As the PPI is a stationary producer of both biogenic CO2 and
renewable electricity, and the mills have an opportunity to utilize side streams of e-fuel
Energies 2023, 16, 746 13 of 18

processes (oxygen and heat), the mills are interesting platforms for e-fuels production. If
currently produced excess electricity in the mills (13 TWh) was converted to e-fuels, the
production would yield as 3.9–9.8 TWhfuel , and the production would bind 0.8–2.7 MtCO2 .
The biogenic CO2 from the European PPI facilitates a production of 290–390 TWhfuel , but
the electricity consumption would be 390–1300 TWh. This would account for a fraction of
the demand; for comparison, the European transport sector alone consumed 4889 TWh of
energy in 2017 [78].
A political framework for e-fuels is still incomplete, but current proposals do not
support the use of bioenergy for the production of renewable e-fuels [79,80]. Therefore,
pulp mills would need to purchase renewable electricity that is of non-biological origin.
This, along with other rules, makes the business environment complicated for pulp mill
operators and decreases the attractiveness to invest. Moreover, the requirement to use
variable renewable electricity instead of continuously produced bioelectricity may crucially
decrease the profitability of the e-fuels production due to lower operational hours. At the
moment, there are no requirements for the origin of CO2 , and therefore, the PPI does not
benefit from its biogenic emissions. Under the current constraints, e-fuels production does
not seem attractive in the European PPI mills even though the platform for production
could be suitable. Furthermore, it should be noted that carbon capture and especially the
production of e-fuels conflict with the energy efficiency improvement target due to the high
energy intensity.

3.5. Progress in Developing vs. OECD Countries

The geographical distribution of CO2 emissions and production volumes of the global
PPI are presented in Figure 6. The combustion of fossil fuels in the PPI produces annually
approximately 194 MtCO2 , and the combustion- and process-based biogenic CO2 emissions
are approximately 357 MtCO2 per year. The production mix and volume are important
factors when decarbonization in a certain region is considered. Pulp mills can cover their
energy demand by their own wood residues, whereas stand-alone paper mills typically
rely on fossil fuels. Therefore, decarbonization can be considered easier in pulp producer
regions, for example, South America, and challenging in paper producer countries such as
China. In addition to production-related factors, national resources such as the availability
of biomass or fossil fuels affect the fuel mix in the PPI. For example, natural gas is the main
fossil fuel in Europe and North America, whereas energy production in the Chinese PPI
Energies 2023, 16, x FOR PEER REVIEW
relies on coal. Most of the virgin pulp mills are located in forested countries, and 15 those
of 19
countries are also the largest users of biomass as fuel.

Figure
Figure6.6.The
Thegeographical
geographicaldistribution
distributionof
ofCO
CO22emissions
emissionsand
andproduction
productionvolumes
volumesof
ofthe
theglobal
globalpulp
pulp
and paper industry.
and paper industry.

According to Kuparinen [16], mills in the OECD countries are more eager to adopt
new technologies and change their business than mills in developing countries, which has
been seen as innovative products such as lignin-based solutions. However, conditions for
novel energy-intensive technologies, for example, the production of hydrogen and carbon
Energies 2023, 16, 746 14 of 18

According to Kuparinen [16], mills in the OECD countries are more eager to adopt
new technologies and change their business than mills in developing countries, which has
been seen as innovative products such as lignin-based solutions. However, conditions for
novel energy-intensive technologies, for example, the production of hydrogen and carbon
capture processes, might be more attractive in developing countries. In southern countries,
for example, in South America, the stand-alone pulp mills may have an excess of heat and
electricity that cannot be sold due to limited access to the electric grid, whereas in northern
countries, pulp mills are typically integrated into paper-making, or the mills can sell energy
to the electricity grid and district heating network. Political environment varies between
regions as well, and often the OECD countries have a higher pressure to decrease CO2
emissions (e.g., the EU ETS), which also affects the progress of the PPI.

4. Conclusions
The pulp and paper industry has several opportunities to decarbonize its own opera-
tion and contribute to the emissions reduction in other sectors. The sector has no crucial
barriers to reaching net-zero industrial emissions, but achieving that potential requires
significant changes. In the European PPI, the theoretical annual capacity renewal rate
of 3.2% would be needed to eliminate industrial fossil CO2 emissions by 2050 even if all
new-build capacity was fossil-free. The prospects for and the progress of decarbonization
vary within the mill types as well as the regions. Kraft pulp mills have good premises
to achieve carbon neutrality or even act as carbon sinks. Stand-alone paper mills that
cover their energy demand combusting fossil fuels need the significant changes of energy
supply. Decarbonization pathways will vary within the regions due to different production
volumes, mill types, available resources, used fuels, and prevailing trends.
The opportunities of the PPI in CO2 emissions reduction are versatile but also over-
lapping; i.e., it must be decided how valuable biomass should be utilized in the future. In
the near future, the PPI can intensify the energy use of bio-based waste streams, which
facilitates the transition toward fossil fuel-free mills together with the energy efficiency
improvement and electrification of processes and energy production. In the long-term
future, the residues of the PPI industry may play a key role in the bioeconomy that aims
to eliminate fossil raw materials, which might increase the role of the electrification of
the sector. The technologies for the production of novel renewable products are mostly
available, but the number of implemented projects is low due to poor economic feasibility
and because the continuously changing business environment is not attractive for investors,
and some policies are hindering the enlargement of the product portfolio (e.g., the produc-
tion of e-fuels). To advance, the role of bioeconomy and e-fuels in the sustainable transition
needs to be clarified, and the role of the PPI should not be underestimated, as there will be
a huge need for renewable materials.

Author Contributions: Conceptualization, S.L. and E.V.; methodology, S.L.; investigation, S.L.; data
curation, S.L.; writing—original draft preparation, S.L.; writing—review and editing, E.-L.A. and E.V.;
visualization, S.L.; supervision, E.V. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of
the manuscript.
Funding: The authors gratefully acknowledge the funding from the Academy of Finland for the
project “Role of forest industry transformation in energy efficiency improvement and reducing CO2
emissions”, grant number 315019.
Data Availability Statement: Data is contained within the article: sources for utilized data are given
in this article.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Energies 2023, 16, 746 15 of 18

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