OUR CHANGING CLIMATE
Klein High School - Klein, TX
SOCIAL SCIENCE
Climate Change in the Past and Present
Resource Guide
2 0 24 – 2 0 25
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Table of Contents
INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Conceptualizing Climate Change
Today . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15
SECTION I: CONCEPTUALIZING Concerns about Using the Term
CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE PAST AND “Anthropocene” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
THE PRESENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Arguments for Using the Term
Section I Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 “Anthropocene” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Essential Concepts from Earth Climate Change and Narratives of
System Science (ESS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Global History . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
The Earth’s Subsystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Mapping Climate onto Existing
Geosphere . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Narratives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
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Hydrosphere . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Climate Determinism and the Question
Atmosphere . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 of Causal Relationships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Biosphere . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Multiple Scales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19
Forcings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Incongruent Chronological Scales . . . . . .19
Solar Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 The Novelty of the Anthropocene . . . . . 20
Volcanoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Section I Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Greenhouse Gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Positive and Negative Feedbacks . . . . . . . 8
Examples of Positive Feedbacks . . . . . . . . 9
SECTION II: HUMANS IN THE
Examples of Negative Feedbacks . . . . . . . 9 HOLOCENE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Section II Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Sources for Reconstructing the
An Overview of the Holocene . . . . . . 23
History of Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 The End of the Last Ice Age and the
The Archives of Nature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Early Holocene . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Ice Cores . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Trees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 The Middle Holocene . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Sedimentation and Other Sources . . . . . . 11 The Late Holocene . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
The Archives of Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Climate and the Development of
Instrumental Records . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Human Civilizations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Narrative Records . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Early Agrarian Societies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Other Types of Records . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Mesopotamia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Fields for Studying the History of Egypt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 The Americas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Historical Climatology and
Paleoclimatology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 The Mediterranean World During
Climate History . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Antiquity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
The History of Climate and Society (HCS) . .15 536 CE: The Worst Year to Be Alive? . . . . . 31
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The Climate in China and the Mandate of SECTION IV: RESPONDING TO THE
Heaven . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 CLIMATE CRISIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
The Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Section IV Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
Colonial World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Recognizing the Climate Crisis . . . . . 54
Phases of the LIA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Research Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
The LIA around the Globe . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 The World Climate Research
European Empires . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Programme (WCRP) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 The International Geosphere-Biosphere
Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Programme (IGBP) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Raising Awareness of Climate Change 58
From the “Seventeenth-Century Crisis” to Early Public Warnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
the Nineteenth Century . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
Section II Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Opposition to Climate Action . . . . . . 60
Nierenberg and the Marshall Institute . . 60
SECTION III: THE ANTHROPOCENE 37 U.S. Opposition to the Kyoto Protocol . . . . 61
Section III Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Business and Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
The Origins of the Anthropocene . . . 38 Political Parties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
The Industrial Revolution and the Burning News Media . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
of Fossil Fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Mitigating the Climate Crisis . . . . . . . 65
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The “Great Acceleration” and the Beginning
Political (In)action . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
of the Anthropocene . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 The United Nations Framework Convention
The Causes of the Anthropocene . . . 41 on Climate Change (UNFCCC) . . . . . . . . . 66
Global Production of Greenhouse The Kyoto Protocol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
Gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 The Paris Agreement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
The Green New Deal and the Inflation
The History of Oil Extraction . . . . . . . . . . 43
Reduction Act (IRA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
Current Sources of Fossil Fuels . . . . . . .45
Historic Greenhouse Gas Emissions New Technology and Industry . . . . . . . . . 67
in the West . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Geoengineering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions . . . . .48 New Sources of Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
The Consequences of the Climate Activism. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
Anthropocene . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Speaking Out for “Climate Justice” . . . . . 69
Climate Change as Part of Compounding Standing Rock and Indigenous Voices . . . 70
Ecological Crises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Fridays for Future and Youth Voices . . . . 72
Stress on Human Habitats . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
Fires . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
Section IV Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
Floods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
CONCLUSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
Droughts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Stress on Human Life . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 TIMELINE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
Financial Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 GLOSSARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
Migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
Impending Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53 NOTES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
Section III Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
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Introduction
Can a changing climate transform humanity? questions of our lifetimes is whether or not we will
Consider this fact: humans lived in an ice age for stop burning fossil fuels in time to keep the climate
around 100,000 years at the end of the Pleistocene. from changing much more than it already has.
While humans did migrate around the world, they left
relatively little trace of their existence. Then, around This resource guide explores our changing climate
11,700 years ago, following a couple thousand years from the perspective of the social sciences. The
of thawing, that ice age ended, and the Earth’s climate first section of the guide, “Conceptualizing Climate
became roughly what we know it to be today. In just Change in the Past and the Present,” introduces some
the past ten thousand years or so, humans have built of the tools that scientists and social scientists use to
great societies; developed new technology, including understand and talk about climate change. The next
writing; multiplied exponentially; and even traveled two sections are historical. Section II, “Humans in
to the moon. Was our changing climate a factor in the Holocene,” offers a global perspective on human
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this remarkable transformation in how humans live? life during the years from the end of the last ice age
It is difficult to say for sure. Just because two events until the nineteenth century, with an emphasis on
happen one after another does not mean that the first how people interacted with the climate. Section III,
event caused the second. But we can say this with “The Anthropocene,” explores how humans have
confidence: humans have dramatically grown in contributed to global warming and how that warming
number and capability while living in our climate since has impacted human societies. The fourth and final
the end of the last ice age. section, “Responding to the Climate Crisis,” explains
how people have come to recognize that humans are
Today, our climate is changing again. Rather than causing climate change and examines some of the most
heading back toward another ice age, however, the notable responses to this knowledge.
world is getting warmer. No one knows what life
will be like for our descendants if the Earth’s climate
changes much more than it already has. We may be NOTE TO STUDENTS: Throughout the resource guide,
currently living in a moment that turns out to be a you will notice that some terms have been boldfaced and
turning point for humanity, perhaps even the end of the underlined. These terms are included in the glossary at the
brief era of human growth that began less than 12,000 end of the resource guide. Also, students should be aware
years ago. But unlike our ancestors who had no control that early dates in history may vary depending on the source.
The dates presented in this resource guide are those dates
over their changing climate, we are now the cause of provided by the sources consulted by the author in writing this
our changing climate. Our practice of burning fossil guide.
fuels is heating up the planet. One of the fundamental
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Section I
Conceptualizing Climate Change
in the Past and the Present
SECTION I INTRODUCTION
Scholars and the public use the term “climate change”
to describe a complex process of changes in the natural
world. But what precisely do the words “climate
change” mean? In Section I of this resource guide, we
will establish some key concepts that will serve as the
foundation for what “climate change” means in the rest
of this guide.
The first set of key concepts comes from the field of
Earth System Science (ESS). ESS is a relatively new
scientific approach to studying the natural world. Its
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distinctive approach views the Earth’s land, oceans,
and atmosphere as a single system. Rather than Depiction of the four subsystems (clockwise from top left:
studying the Earth’s different parts in isolation, ESS biosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere, geosphere) of Earth
looks at the interactions between air, water, land, and System Science.
living organisms. The concepts that we explore from Source: California State University Northridge, Earth Systems Interactions
(csun.edu).
ESS will provide a framework for understanding
climate change as a natural phenomenon. Once
scholars consider the Anthropocene a new geological
that baseline understanding of climate change is
era in planetary history in which humans have become
established, we can add additional layers that consider
the driving force in planetary change. The term
the relationship between climate change and human
“Anthropocene” references the idea that current climatic
society.
conditions have been heavily influenced by human
The second set of key concepts describes how actions. These scholars have theorized that since around
scholars create and organize our knowledge of past 1950, the world has entered a new era of climate history.
climates. We will examine the sources that scholars
Section I concludes with a reflection on how climate
use as clues for reconstructing climate and climate
change and its history relate to the ways that scholars
change. Scholars in different academic disciplines use
have traditionally told the story of global history. The
different sources for studying the past, and they ask
content of Section I offers terms and ideas that allow
different questions to guide their investigations. It is
for a robust conceptualization of climate change in the
important to pay attention to the methods used in a
past and present.
field to understand the strengths and limitations of the
knowledge a given field produces. A multidisciplinary
approach, which incorporates the findings of more than
ESSENTIAL CONCEPTS FROM
one academic discipline, offers a well-rounded picture EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE (ESS)
of the history of climate change. What keeps the Earth’s climate in equilibrium?
Why does the Earth’s climate sometimes change
The third, and final, set of key concepts in Section so dramatically that scholars designate a period of
I focuses on the idea of the Anthropocene. Many climate change? The factors that influence the climate
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Earth’s atmospheric layers.
Source: WorldAtlas
are varied. Moreover, the interactions between those altered from external forces. Those forces are called
factors complicate the situation exponentially. Different forcings. When forcings alter the climate, it often
influences mix and mingle together in a myriad of causes reactions called positive feedbacks or negative
ways, producing complex outcomes that are difficult to feedbacks. These concepts will be explained in more
predict or even to understand precisely. The relatively detail shortly.
young field of Earth System Science puts the complex
factors that shape climate and climate change into an The Earth’s Subsystems
orderly system.1 While ESS offers a useful framework The Earth’s subsystems interact with each other to
for scholars who study climate, the basics of ESS also influence the weather and climate. These interactions
provide an easy-to-understand way for non-specialists can occur at different sized scales geographically. For
to obtain an accurate, if simplified, picture of how instance, on a very large scale, an entire ocean could
climate works. warm, causing changes to levels of moisture in the air
over a large area. Conversely, on a small scale, a single
As the name Earth System Science suggests, ESS stream might dry up, changing a local ecosystem. In
conceives of the world as a single system. The system both examples, the hydrosphere is interacting with the
has different parts, however, and those are called other subsystems in various ways that impact the future
subsystems. On a very basic level, there are four relationship between the subsystems in those places.
subsystems. The four subsystems are the geosphere
(earth and rock), hydrosphere (water and ice), Geosphere
atmosphere (air), and biosphere (living organisms). The geosphere encompasses all the land, earth, and
These subsystems interact to shape the weather and rock that make up the planet. Sometimes, scholars use
climate. The balance of the subsystems—and the the term “Lithosphere,” a word that incorporates the
stability of the weather and climate—are sometimes Greek word for rock or stone, to describe the same
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features encompassed by the term “geosphere.” On a thermal constitution of the Earth’s subsystems. The
geological time scale—encompassing the millions public is probably most familiar with the carbon cycle
and billions of years it has taken for the Earth to move in which humans participate as we breathe oxygen that
and change form—notable events in climate history trees and other plants produce from their absorption of
include the shifting of the Earth’s plates and the carbon dioxide. In the past couple of centuries, human
release and recapture of minerals and particles from use of fossil fuels has radically accelerated the Earth’s
within the Earth. The Earth’s crust, a relatively thin natural carbon cycle, rapidly increasing the amount of
layer of rock at the surface of the Earth, is where most carbon in the atmosphere above natural levels.2
of the interactions between the geosphere and other
subsystems occur. Living organisms, which are part Forcings
of the biosphere, influence the composition of the soil The Earth’s climate system—that is, the different parts
itself. The geosphere also impacts weather and climate, that combine to shape the climate around the globe—
as occurs in locations where mountain ranges cause involves interactions between various components of
clouds to form. The eruptions of volcanoes that release the four subsystems just described. The Earth’s climate
gases and particles from within the Earth also drive system is also an open system. This means that it is
climate change. not entirely self-contained. Solar energy radiated from
the Sun is the Earth’s vital source of external energy.
Hydrosphere That energy and the Earth’s climate system mix to
The hydrosphere is all the water on the Earth, in the shape climatic conditions. Despite the variability of
ground, and in the atmosphere. It includes oceans weather from day to day, over longer periods, climate
and freshwater rivers and lakes as well as clouds and is relatively stable. Climate, however, does change
water vapor. The hydrosphere also includes ice, which slowly over time. Scientists call the specific causes of
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some scholars count as its own subsystem called the climate change forcings. There are three particularly
cryosphere. Some of the most well-publicized aspects influential forcings that we will describe below: solar
of current climate change focus on the hydrosphere, energy, volcanoes, and greenhouse gases.
including the melting of the cryosphere at the planet’s
North and South Poles, the warming of oceans and Solar Energy
sea level rise, and increasingly severe droughts and Energy from the Sun heats up the Earth. Everyone
flooding around the world. understands this reality from their own experience
of feeling the Sun’s warmth on a clear day. But what
Atmosphere we cannot intuitively experience is that the amount
The atmosphere consists of various gases. On this of energy transferred from the Sun to the Earth is not
basis, scholars define atmospheric zones, or layers. completely consistent over time and space. For example,
They are, from lowest to highest altitude: the climatologists have identified that cooler temperatures
troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere, thermosphere, in the Northern Hemisphere in the late 1600s and early
and exosphere. One important role that the atmosphere 1700s corresponded to a period of fewer sunspots and
plays in climate change involves the greenhouse gas low solar activity.3 The movement of the Earth and its
effect in which the concentration of certain gases relation to the Sun has been a driver of climate change
released from the Earth’s other subsystems traps for hundreds of thousands of years. The Milankovitch
heat in the lower layers of the atmosphere. Certain cycles reflect the fact that at intervals of around 100,000
gases in the atmosphere cause the greenhouse gas years, 41,000 years, and 26,000 years, the Earth
effect because they are transparent to the Sun’s rays, completes different cycles that influence which parts
allowing them to the reach the surface. When those of the Earth receive more, or less, solar energy. These
rays are re-radiated by the Earth back into space, they three cycles have interacted with each other to steer the
lose energy and drop to the infrared level. But at that climate of the Earth into and out of periodic ice ages.4
level, the greenhouse gases absorb them, thus trapping
the heat. Volcanoes
If you were outside on a hot day, you might seek
Biosphere shelter from the sun by moving to a shady area. The
The biosphere is all living things on, in, and around ground that has not been hit by the sun will be cooler
the Earth. Life on Earth influences the chemical and than somewhere nearby that has been absorbing solar
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Volcanic gases in the atmosphere.
Source: United States Geological Survey, Volcanoes Can Affect Climate | U.S. Geological Survey (usgs.gov).
energy throughout the day. When large volcanoes a warming effect inside the entire car. Water vapor,
erupt, they emit a layer of dust and particles that can carbon dioxide, and methane are some of the gases
offer shade cover to large areas of the globe, creating that produce a greenhouse effect around the surface of
cooler conditions over vast regions. When multiple the Earth. Humans release greenhouse gases into the
large volcanoes erupt one after another, the cooling atmosphere through a variety of practices, contributing
impact can be great enough to influence large regions to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the
of the world and even bring down the average global atmosphere and a more severe greenhouse effect.
temperature.
Positive and Negative Feedbacks
Greenhouse Gases Because there are so many interconnected parts to the
The term “greenhouse gases” refers to the design of Earth’s climate system, when forcings begin to change
buildings called greenhouses that capture heat from the climate, the four subsystems are affected in many
the Sun and are commonly used for agriculture. different ways. Reactions to climate change caused by
The public probably has experienced this heating forcings are called feedbacks. Some feedbacks have
dynamic more frequently in automobiles that are very already been mentioned. One is the melting of sheets
hot on the inside after being parked in the sun with of ice around the North Pole. Forcings that have caused
the windows up. This occurs when solar radiation climatic warming in the Northern Hemisphere have
enters through the glass windows and warms up the resulted in this melting ice.
interior surfaces of the car, such as the dashboard.
The windows also trap the heat that radiates off the Scientists classify feedbacks as either positive or
dashboard and other surfaces within the car, creating negative. In this context, “positive” and “negative”
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The greenhouse effect.
Source: University of Calgary, Greenhouse effect - Energy Education.
do not mean “good” and “bad.” The designation the surface of the ocean. This development alone
of positive or negative refers to the relationship has harmful consequences within the biosphere by
between the original forcing and the impact of the destroying the habitat of animals such as the polar
feedback. If the original forcing and the feedback both bear. But the melting ice is classified as a positive
push the climate in the same direction, either both feedback because the loss of ice actually warms up the
warmer or both colder, then the feedback is positive. climate in addition to the initial warming. When ice
So, melting polar ice sheets is a positive feedback covers the surface of the ocean, it reflects solar energy
because warming caused the ice to melt, and losing back away from the surface of the Earth. The ocean
the ice further warms the climate. Positive feedbacks, water that is exposed after the ice melts, conversely,
therefore, keep pushing climate change in the absorbs more energy from the Sun, and the warming
direction it is headed, either warmer or colder. Positive of the ocean is increased.
feedbacks can push climate change to what is called
a tipping point, at which time the change reaches a Examples of Negative Feedbacks
point of no return. Negative feedbacks, conversely, Sometimes negative feedbacks also occur. If the
serve to moderate climate change.5 initial change in climate is moving toward warmer
conditions, a negative feedback would be a reaction
Examples of Positive Feedbacks to warming that causes colder conditions. A smaller-
Melting ice sheets around the North Pole offer a good scale negative feedback occasionally occurs during
example of a positive feedback. Warmer temperatures the winter season in the Great Lakes region in
in the region impact aspects of the Earth’s subsystems. North America. Warmer conditions raise the water
Warmer temperatures affect the cryosphere, the ice temperature of the Great Lakes, increasing water in
portion of the hydrosphere, by melting ice that is on the atmosphere. The increased water in the air over
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to reconstruct the actual history of climate. Like
any other historical investigation, scholars need to
have sources that provide evidence of past events.
In standard historical practice, historians examine
written sources that are collected and stored in an
archive—a physical repository of documents. Scholars
who study climate history have adopted the concept
of an archive to describe where they find the sources
they use. Sometimes, scholars who study climate
also examine written documents for clues about past
climatic conditions. Scholars have called the places
that hold these types of sources “archives of society.”
But climate scholars also search nature itself for clues
about climate’s history. Scholars call these figurative
storehouses of sources the “archives of nature.”6
Sections II and III of this guide will cover the history
of human interactions with climate over roughly the
past 10,000 years. Rather than merely recount that
Lake-effect snow over the Great Lakes.
history, we will now discuss how scholars have figured
Source: University of Michigan, Lake-effect Snow in the Great Lakes Region
| GLISA (umich.edu) out what happened.
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the lakes, in turn, becomes cloud cover that cools The Archives of Nature
the surface of the Earth by blocking the sunlight. As discussed earlier, climate influences the four
Additionally, the clouds formed over the lakes subsystems—earth, water, air, and living organisms—
sometimes bring lake effect snowstorms, creating a in a host of different ways. Certain climatic conditions
layer of snow on the ground that, like ice, serves to might correspond with specific gases in the atmosphere,
reflect solar energy away from the surface of the Earth. or the growth of certain plants, or certain water levels,
and so forth. Traces of those impacts are sometimes
The weakening of the polar vortex is another discoverable in the natural world. In fact, nature is an
possible example of a negative feedback because it archive, or a repository, of clues about how climate
has recently caused colder than typical conditions in and the different parts of our world interacted in the
North America. Scientists hypothesize that warmer past. Scientists and scholars have creatively developed
temperatures in the oceans and atmosphere of the methods for observing and measuring signs of past
Northern Hemisphere have weakened the polar vortex climatic conditions that have been preserved in different
of cold air that circulates around the North Pole. As parts of the world.
warmer air moves upward, the cold air in the polar
vortex moves out of its usual course and travels Something observable in nature that gives an
farther south into areas of the United States that it indication of past climate conditions is called a proxy.
had not previously reached. In those places, winter Proxies are natural features that show evidence of
temperatures drop well below regular levels. In this being impacted by specific climate conditions. If
case, the initial warming causes colder conditions in scholars can isolate and date these impacts, they will
some areas. Since the initial warming and subsequent have an idea of what the climate was like at a certain
cooling do not align, it is a negative feedback. time in the past. Three of the most revealing sources of
climate history are ice, trees, and soil.7
SOURCES FOR RECONSTRUCTING Ice Cores
THE HISTORY OF CLIMATE Ice core sampling is a technique of drilling long
Even if a scientist or a scholar is equipped with an cylinders of ice out of deep glaciers. The ice cores are
understanding of how climate operates and how then analyzed in layers. As the ice was formed, the
climate change can occur, more information is needed snowfall from each year that became the new top layer
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Sedimentation and Other Sources
Scholars also study other parts of the natural world
for data that has been collected about past conditions.
The layers of sediment or mud on the bottom of lakes
and the ocean contain information about the historical
composition and content of water such as the amount of
pollen. Coral sampling in the ocean reveals similar data
as well as past temperatures of the ocean in the location
of the coral. Scientists creatively harvest data about
the impact of past climate conditions on various parts
of the Earth System and its subsystems. Through such
discoveries, scholars rediscover the climate of the past.
The Archives of Society
Ice core sample. There is also evidence of past climate conditions in
Source: National Science Foundation, About Ice Cores | NSF Ice Core the archives of society. The term archives of society
Facility refers to sources produced by humans that contain
information about the climate. There are some obvious
of the glacier would trap particles from the atmosphere limitations to the information scholars can gain from
and freeze them in the ice. Therefore, an ice core the archives of society. Human records only describe
from an old glacier can reveal what the atmospheric conditions over the past hundreds or thousands of
conditions were dating as far back as hundreds of years, not the past millions of years that some sources
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thousands of years.8 from the archives of nature reveal. Additionally,
the most precise information from the archives of
Trees
society, instrumental records such as recordings of
Trees can also be analyzed for information about past
temperature, are an even newer development. The
climates. One can identify the age of a tree by counting
oldest instrumental records date back only to the
the rings of a tree that has been cut through. Scientists
thermometer’s invention around 1700.
know how to analyze each of those rings for information
about the weather during that year of the tree’s life. The However, even before humans had modern scientific
tree can reveal if the year was dry or rainy and can even instruments, they left records that describe the climate.
show the weather conditions of individual seasons in a To make use of these records, scholars utilize a system
year. The practice of gathering this information from of proxies similar to those used to study the archive of
trees is called dendrochronology—a combination of nature. While proxies produce less precise information
words that refer to trees and time.
Temperature reconstruction and tree ring sample.
Source: University of Georgia, New tree ring data set shows NH temperatures | Climate and Agriculture in the Southeast (uga.edu)
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An unused German calendar printed in 1594 with space for
users to record weather conditions.
Source: Bayerische StaatsBibliothek
A French thermometer from around 1780.
Source: Whipple Museum of the History of Science, collections. of time. For example, Phoenix, Arizona, received
whipplemuseum.cam.ac.uk/objects/11165/ attention in the news for record-breaking heat in the
summer of 2023. But temperature records for the
than a reading from a scientific instrument, they can still city of Phoenix only date back to the year 1896.9 So,
produce reliable information. For instance, a narrative instrumental records can clearly show trends in the
account of a flood in the 1500s will not contain an exact climate, but only for a little more than a century.
measurement of how much rain fell, but scholars can
reliably know that substantial rainfall did occur. One Additionally, scholars are constantly thinking about
area in which the archives of society are more specific where and how measurements should be taken to get
than the archives of nature is in dating. From tree the clearest possible picture of what the climate is
records we may know that there was a good year of rain doing. For instance, scientists record the temperature
for plant growth, but human records can give details at different layers of the atmosphere to gain a more
down to the day or hour of when it rained. precise understanding of climate trends above the
Earth.10 Even though data on things like precipitation
Instrumental Records and temperature taken from reliable scientific
Scholars use precise and accurate information that instruments seems straightforward, careful analysis
was recorded by scientific instruments to identify is still required to combine points of data from many
trends in the climate. Today, meteorologists measure individual places at specific moments in time into an
daily records of high and low temperatures from accurate understanding of climate trends over larger
many places around the globe. These records are very areas and longer timespans.
precise, but they only go back a relatively short period
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Hendrick Avercamp, Winter Landscape with Skaters, c. 1608.
An eighteenth-century depiction of the Swiss town of Source: Rijksmuseum
Grindelwald and a nearby glacier.
Source: Swiss National Library
Other Types of Records
There are a variety of other types of records that
Narrative Records
people have left behind that also contain clues about
Even before people had the instruments to
past weather and climate. Sometimes people made
systematically record temperature and precipitation,
a marker of a highwater mark during a flood that
they still paid attention to the weather and other
one can see on a building. Works of art also show
climate-related developments. Scholars can examine
depictions of weather conditions. Scholars need to
human-produced records for clues about past climate
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be careful, however, to consider if the proxy they are
conditions. These types of sources include weather
using accurately reflects real conditions. A painting is
diaries in which someone might have left short daily
not the same as a photograph with a date. The artist
entries that document if it was hot, cold, rainy, cloudy,
may be depicting a real scene, or the inspiration for the
sunny, and so on. Ship logbooks often include such
painting may have come from elsewhere.
information. Other narrative records might describe
whether a glacier is growing or receding, how high Grain prices are another proxy that scholars have
the water level is in a river or lake, whether a lake is used as a marker for weather conditions. There is
frozen or not, or detailed descriptions of exceptional a correlation between certain types of weather and
occurrences, such as a long drought or a severe storm. fruitful harvests that would cause prices to decline.
Recently, however, some scholars have argued that too
Scholars treat the information contained in narrative
many other factors, unrelated to weather, might also
records as proxies for estimating the information
drive grain prices up or down, and that prices do not
that modern scientific instruments can record such
accurately reflect weather conditions. Debating how to
as temperature, rainfall, or snowfall. Although
use sources is a healthy part of scientific inquiry and
the narrative records do not contain a temperature
leads to more refined and reliable methods for studying
recording, if they do contain an account of a cold
past climate conditions.
winter and describe a frozen river, for instance,
scholars can devise systems for taking those records
and comparing them with other records to gain an idea FIELDS FOR STUDYING THE
of climate trends and conditions over time. To return HISTORY OF CLIMATE
to the glacier example, accounts of glacier expansion Because there are many different types of sources
are not the same as temperature readings that show that contain information about the history of climate,
an average temperature decline, but the growth of the different scholars have focused on becoming experts
glacier works as a proxy to suggest that it is growing at analyzing specific types of sources. Professionally
because temperatures are declining. trained scientists, social scientists, and historians are
all highly specialized. That means a scholar will likely
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only have expertise in researching climate history in a
particular way. Sometimes, when a scholar identifies
sources that contain useful information and develops
effective methods for analyzing those sources, other
scholars begin to join the work, and a new scholarly
field is born. A scholarly field, in other words, consists
of a group of scholars who share common practices for
studying the type of evidence they analyze. Usually, a
scholar is primarily a member of one field.
Different scholarly fields use different means to study
the history of climate. Often, findings about climate
history do not perfectly align within a given field, or
between fields. Having robust fields with many scholars
and lots of research provides many perspectives and
the opportunity to reflect on which studies produce
the most accurate results. Comparing discoveries that
have been made between different fields allows for
an outside check on the findings made within a field.
Every scholarly field also has its own strengths and Christian Pfister led the creation of the field of climate history.
limitations. The existence of multiple fields that examine
climate history offers us an opportunity to learn from
many skills, including, but not limited to: collecting
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the strengths of different fields and move beyond the
samples from nature (such as ice cores or tree samples),
limits of each individual field. Overall, the fields of
operating the machinery or instruments used to analyze
historical climatology, paleoclimatology, climate
the samples, analyzing the data obtained from nature to
history, and the history of climate and society (HCS)
reconstruct past climate conditions, and communicating
offer complementary views of climate history. Together,
findings from nature according to the standard written
they present a reliable picture of past climate and its
conventions of the field of climatology.
relationship to human life.
Climate History
Historical Climatology and The field of climate history, by comparison, utilizes a
Paleoclimatology different set of practices to analyze different sources.
Historical climatology and paleoclimatology are Climate historians collect and study sources from the
different names for essentially the same field. Both archives of society, and they analyze those sources
terms end with the word “climatology” prefaced by according to historians’ methods and conventions.
either “historical” or “paleo-.” Climatology is a study The skills that climate historians bring to the study of
of climate that relies primarily on the archives of climate include: the ability to read the language and
nature. That is, climatologists are experts at gathering script of the texts being analyzed; the ability to find
information about climate from the investigation of the the texts, analytical techniques, and the contextual
natural world, including the sources described earlier, knowledge to interpret the texts accurately; and the
such as layers of ice or lake sediment or tree rings. ability to formulate and communicate historical
The term “paleo-” means ancient or old and conveys narratives based on the textual evidence. The Swiss
a similar idea as the term “historical” in this context. historian Christian Pfister (b. 1944) was an influential
Historical climatology or paleoclimatology investigates pioneer in the field of climate history and diligently
climates of the past, particularly before the 1800s when compiled sources and developed methodological
scholars first utilized existing scientific instruments approaches to analyze them. He compellingly
for the purpose of creating widespread and systematic demonstrated that sources in the archives of society can
records of climatic conditions. be used to produce trustworthy climate reconstructions.
Historical climatologists must learn and practice A climate historian, therefore, looks in different places
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Time scale ratified by the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS). Abbreviations: “b2k” = before the year 2000;
ka = thousands of years before present; Ma = millions of years before present.
Source: Subcommission on Quaternary Stratigraphy, Major divisions | Subcommission on Quaternary Stratigraphy
than the historical climatologist for information about one’s investigation. For instance, different levels of
past climate conditions. A scholar in one field would geographical scale could be a city, a large region,
likely not have the training and expertise to accurately a continent, or the entire globe. Different levels of
analyze the types of sources that someone in the other chronological scale could be days, decades, millennia,
field does. The fields complement each other, however, or millions of years.
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because they broadly explore the same topic from
different perspectives. HCS emphasizes the significance of precision when
it comes to scale. If a scholar only has sources from
The History of Climate and Society (HCS) one town, that evidence may not support a claim about
The history of climate and society (HCS) is a new an entire region. Or if the sources are all from a few
field that is just beginning to emerge. Environmental decades, that data may not support a claim about entire
historian Dagomar Degroot has led the push to form centuries. Geographical scale and chronological scale
and name the field of HCS. The need for the field, are very important for the study of climate history and
according to scholars within it, has stemmed from the its relationship to human life.
recent expansion of studies on climate from a variety of
fields including climate history and paleoclimatology, CONCEPTUALIZING CLIMATE
as well as other fields such as archeology, economics, CHANGE TODAY
geography, linguistics, and genetics. As its name Historians always study the past from the context of
suggests, the field of HCS focuses on the relationship their own time. Historians try to be self-aware and
between past climate conditions and human societies. consider potential biases from the present that might
taint their understanding of the past. The relationship
At that intersection of climate and society, HCS
between present climate change and past climate
scholars contend that existing research from the various
change, however, offers a particularly tricky challenge
fields just listed often lacks precision. Specifically,
for scholars. On the one hand, there is a lot of continuity
HCS scrutinizes scholarly claims about climate’s past
between the past and the present in terms of how the
impacts on human society. HCS seeks to apply rigorous
Earth’s subsystems interact to create climate conditions.
analytical methods from the field of history to make
Studying past climate change can help scientists and
sure that sufficient evidence exists to support claims
scholars understand what causes change and how the
about climate causing certain social conditions. To put it
Earth reacts to forcings that cause climate change.
simply, HCS scrutinizes causal claims.11
On the other hand, the primary cause of current global
The field of HCS also pays careful attention to
warming—humans releasing greenhouse gases into
scale. In this context, scale refers to the scope of
the atmosphere—is unprecedented in human and
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Klein High School - Klein, TX
Though the Anthropocene Working Group (AWG) has proposed that the Anthropocene should officially be recognized as a new
geological time interval, their proposal was not officially accepted.
global history. Starting about two hundred years ago epoch prior to the Holocene, the Pleistocene, started
and increasingly since then, people have extracted and around 2.58 million years ago. The use of the term
released fossil fuels at unprecedented levels. So, there “Anthropocene” to refer to the era we live in today
are also strong discontinuities between climate change suggests that the climate change we are experiencing
today and climate change in the distant, and not-so- at present is so significant that it is comparable to
distant, past. epochs of very substantial climate change in the past.
The inclusion of the prefix “Anthro-” at the beginning
What concepts should scholars use to describe the of the term strongly emphasizes that humans have
relationship between today’s climate change and primarily contributed to the current trajectory of the
climate change in a broader chronological context? climate.
One answer to this question has come in the form
of a term used to describe climate change today: the Concerns about Using the Term
Anthropocene.12 The term Anthropocene puts current
“Anthropocene”
climate conditions into the broader context of climate
The stakes are high for adopting the term Anthropocene,
history while also placing a strong emphasis on the
and some scholars have reservations about doing so. In
uniqueness of today’s climate.
science, systems of classification are very consequential
The concept of the Anthropocene refers to the as these systems organize human knowledge.
scientific divisions of geological time that correspond Accordingly, scholars and scientists take them very
to climatic conditions of the Earth over millions of seriously. Do scientists really know enough about
years through to the present. The current era, or epoch, climate change today to decide that it is on the same
is the Holocene, which started around 11.7 thousand level as the transitions into and out of the Pleistocene
years ago, at the end of the last global ice age. The and into the Holocene? That question is currently being
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debated by scientists in the geological community. In have been telling stories about global history since
2019, the Anthropocene Working Group (AWG), a body the modern historical profession became formalized
of experts on the Earth’s geological epochs, proposed in Europe in the 1800s. But with a few exceptions,
that the Anthropocene should officially be recognized such as the French historians E. Le Roy Ladurie
as a new geological time interval. They advocated that and Fernand Braudel, modern historians did not
starting in the mid twentieth century, around 1950, include climate in their narratives of global history
the Holocene ended, and the Anthropocene began. In until around the year 2000. Because climate was not
March of 2024, the International Union of Geological included in traditional histories of the world before
Sciences rejected a proposal to formally name the the past two and a half decades, many things have
Anthropocene as a new geological epoch, but noted that converged—or crashed together at once—since
the term will “continue to be used not only by Earth and historians have started trying to incorporate climate
environmental scientists but also by social scientists, into the story of world history. Historians and scientists
politicians and economists as well as by the public at are still sorting out the combined story of climate
large” and “will remain an invaluable descriptor of history and human history.
human impact on the Earth system.”13 According to the
formal geological time scale accepted by the geological Just as scholars in scientific fields constantly revise
community, we still live in the Holocene.14 their conclusions and make them more precise and
accurate when new information becomes available,
Arguments for Using the Term historians also revise the stories they tell when new
information becomes available. This process has
“Anthropocene”
been very evident as scholars have tried a variety of
Is it useful and appropriate to use the term
approaches to integrating climate history and human
Anthropocene even if scholars in the geological
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history. The dynamic, and ongoing, process in which
community who could make the term official have
historians are trying to understand the role that climate
not done so? It is, for several reasons. Putting the
has played in past civilizations and how that history
Anthropocene in the official geological time scale is
relates to the present is both fascinating and important.
a very high bar to reach. The fact that geologists are
careful before taking such a dramatic step reflects the
Mapping Climate onto Existing Narratives
seriousness of scientists. The idea of the Anthropocene
One, perhaps obvious, approach to bringing together
is not discredited because it has not received that
existing historical narratives and new information
specific recognition.
about climate history is to simply place the two
An important reason to use the term Anthropocene histories over one another. Historians have well-
is that other scholars and the public often refer to the established narratives about most parts of the world.
Anthropocene already. The evidence overwhelmingly Often, these narratives divide history into a series of
suggests that 1950 is an appropriate marker for the stages that are marked by political developments. The
start of current warming trends in the climate. While history of China over the past several thousand years,
scholars are debating the nuances of whether or not for instance, can be portrayed neatly as a timeline of
the mid-twentieth century qualifies as an epochal successive dynasties: Xia, Shang, Zhou, Qin, Han,
change on the scale of the Holocene, something and so forth. For the Mediterranean World, a popular
drastic is taking place in today’s climate. The term narrative moves from the Greek Empire to the Roman
Anthropocene has become a way to name what is Empire to the Middle Ages and so on.
happening, making it easier for scholars, journalists,
One option for combining climate history with these
and members of the public to have vitally important
types of existing historical narratives is to look at
conversations about our changing climate.15
notable junctures, such as the transition from one
dynasty to another, and then see if any climatic
CLIMATE CHANGE AND events—such as a period of climate change—occurred
NARRATIVES OF GLOBAL HISTORY around the same period. Often, scholars who employ
Humans have been telling narratives, or stories, about this technique are able to show striking correlations
global history for millennia. Professional historians between large-scale social events, such as mass revolts
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Correlations between climatic conditions and human history.
Source: “Climate in Human History” in Donald R. Prothero and Robert H. Dott, Evolution of the Earth, 8th ed, McGraw-Hill, 2010.
in a region, and climate-related conditions, like an to causation. In other words, it is hard to determine if
extended period of drought. The climate events and one event in history caused a second event, or if they
the social events often line up to such a degree that it just coincidentally happened. Often, there is not enough
seems to be more than a mere coincidence. evidence to prove the causal relationship definitively
or with certainty. So, historians need to use careful
A potential weakness of this approach, however, is reasoning to offer an interpretation of the available
that it is not the best practice in history or science for evidence that suggests why and how something might
scholars to desire to prove too specific of a thesis before have caused something else.16
they begin to study their sources. This is because
such an approach could lead to biases in the results. In the context of the history of climate and society, a
Sometimes, scholars might find what they are looking major question is whether or how climate conditions
for, but miss other important observations. Using cause events in human societies. Do favorable climate
existing narratives to guide the study of climate history conditions cause an empire to thrive? Do unfavorable
may put too many constraints on climate history and conditions cause revolts and revolutions? Older
turn it into little more than the retelling of narratives that scholarship—including some of the pioneering works
are still based on the old frameworks they were always of history that first gave attention to climate history
based on, such as dynasties or empires. as a factor in human history—made the case that
climate determined or dictated the course of human
Climate Determinism and the Question history. More recent studies have cast doubt on such
of Causal Relationships a strong link between climate and the development
Attempts to combine climate history and human history of human culture and society. Recently, the argument
have also raised challenging interpretive issues related that climate sets the course for human history has been
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labeled climate determinism. Almost all studies of
climate and society today say that they are rejecting
climate determinism, but some scholars still argue that
climate played a major role in shaping human history.
Scholars may be able to show a correlation between a
certain climatic condition and a human event, but that
does not actually prove that the first one caused the
second one. In the field of the history of climate and
society, scholars place emphasis on the careful study
and analysis of causal mechanisms. This approach
asks what specifically did the climate impact that
then became the exact thing that triggered a human
response. Those gears that turn and then make the next
gears turn are the causal mechanisms that could offer a
more intricate explanation of how climate has affected
human behavior and societies.17
Multiple Scales
Another major challenge for combining human
climate history and human history relates to the
matter of scale. Typically, the chronological scale
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of human histories dates back to around five or six
thousand years ago when the first major human
societies emerged. These civilizations in places like
Ancient Mesopotamia, Egypt, and China have left
robust traces of buildings, artifacts, and even written
documents that allow historians to reconstruct their
histories. Sometimes, scholars use archeological
Rachel Carson in 1960.
evidence to create historical accounts of what human
Source: https://www.rachelcarson.org/
life was like as far back as around 40,000 years ago.
Most often, historical studies focus on human events
in the much more recent past, such as the twentieth Because humans before the twentieth century did
century. However, a few thousand years of human not have the capability to impact climate on the scale
history amount to little more than a blink of an eye that humans do today, humans arguably lacked an
when compared to the millions of years over which the awareness that their actions even had the potential to
Earth’s climate has evolved to become what it is today. shape the world in such a forceful and lasting way.
In what meaningful way can scholars compare these Although she was not writing about climate, Rachel
two vastly different chronological scales? Carson (1907−64), with her 1962 book Silent Spring,
is often credited with helping humans develop an
In the past, scholarly fields that study the science of awareness of how much potential we now have to alter
climate change and scholarly fields that study human the Earth. Her book compellingly demonstrated how
histories did not overlap. The current state of climate commercial pesticides destroyed living organisms
change caused by human behavior—known as the and radically transformed ecosystems in mere years,
Anthropocene—has brought these two histories whereas natural changes in an ecosystem could only
together at the moment in time in which we currently evolve over the course of decades or generations.
live. Scholars are in the process of figuring out how
to tell the story of the Earth’s history and the story of Today, scholars such as Dipesh Chakrabarty argue that
human history in a way that illuminates both histories. humans are reshaping the configuration of the Earth’s
climate systems in a timespan that is exponentially
Incongruent Chronological Scales shorter than natural processes.18 Today’s climate
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change, therefore, is an event that takes place on the variations in solar energy reaching the Earth,
small scale of human history because humans are a and rising concentrations of greenhouse
leading cause of the climate change. But the changes gases in the atmosphere—can tip the balance
are also so substantial that they have become part of between subsystems and cause climate change.
the story of the Earth’s climate that has developed over Sometimes, climate change causes reactions
6
a much greater scale (millions of years). Thus, while in nature that drive the change even more
these two chronological scales are incongruent, they (positive feedbacks), while other times
nevertheless have now intersected in our lifetime. reactions in nature act against the initial
drivers of climate change (negative feedbacks).
The Novelty of the Anthropocene
The novelty, or newness, of the Anthropocene presents 6 Scholars and scientists learn about climate
the social science scholar and the social science student history by investigating evidence in the natural
with unprecedented challenges. Old methods and old world (archives of nature) and in records left by
narratives in the field of history must now account for humans (archives of society).
new discoveries from fields that examine climatology. 6 Historical climatologists and
Scholars and the public wonder if anything from paleoclimatologists study the archives of
history relates to the Anthropocene and if there are nature. Climate historians study the archives
any lessons from the past that can guide us through of society. Scholars in the field of the history
the challenges of the multiple natural crises that of climate and society (HCS) focus on the
humanity now faces. These are real challenges, but relationship between climate history and
they also offer exciting new opportunities. The project human history.
of uncovering and sharing the combined history of
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6 The Anthropocene is a term that scholars
climate and humanity is already allowing us to see
and the public have begun using to describe
ourselves and our world in new ways.
the idea that current climate change might
mark the beginning of a new climatic and
SECTION I SUMMARY geological epoch in the Earth’s history. The
6 The field of Earth System Science (ESS)
term Anthropocene also reflects the reality that
provides key concepts for understanding the
current climate change is significantly caused
nature of the Earth’s climate and climate
by human actions.
change.
6 It is a challenge to combine climate history
6 The Earth’s four subsystems—earth, water, air,
and human history into a single story, but by
and living organisms—interact on local and
attempting to do so, historians help us better
global levels to shape climatic conditions.
understand our changing climate.
6 Forcings—events such as volcanic eruptions,
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Section II
Humans in the Holocene
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Map of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, glaciers, and permafrost during the Last Glacial Maximum.
Source: Amelie Lindgren, et al, “GIS-based Maps and Area Estimates of Northern Hemisphere Permafrost Extent during the Last Glacial Maximum,”
Permafrost and Periglacial Processes 27 (2015).
SECTION II INTRODUCTION record of Homo sapiens around 300,000 years ago
According to the International Union of Geological or to around 40,000 years ago when Homo sapiens
Sciences (IUGS), the geological and climatic epoch became the last surviving members of the Homo
known as the Holocene began about 11,700 years ago.19 genus, humans had a much longer history on Earth
During the Holocene, humans have thrived like never before the start of the Holocene than we have had since
before. Whether one dates back to the oldest fossil it began.20 But our species never came close to building
what humans have built during the Holocene. Before
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The climate of Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum.
European Geosciences Union. Cryospheric Sciences | Image of the Week — Last Glacial Maximum in Europe (egu.eu)
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the Holocene, the global human population may not Holocene was very different than the environment we
have surpassed ten million.21 According to the United have known since. Most of human history took place
Nations, the current global human population is over in the Pleistocene Epoch (2.6 million years ago to
eight billion.22 Traces of human manufacturing and 11,700 years ago), a period characterized by cycles of
other activities that impact the environment can be glaciers growing or receding and, at times, covering
found nearly everywhere on the planet.23 vast portions of the Earth’s surface. The Last Glacial
Maximum (LGM) occurred around 20,000 years ago.
Climate and environment do not determine the course At that time, much of what is known today as Europe,
of human development and history. That said, there including Scandinavia, the British Isles, and parts of
are many, many climatic conditions in which humans Central Europe, were covered by ice. Much of North
could not survive, let alone thrive. The specific course America was as well. Asia experienced permafrost—
of human history over the past 12,000 years is not the perennially frozen ground.24
inevitable outcome of human life in the Holocene.
Climate did not determine the twists and turns of So much of the world’s water was frozen on the
the human story, nor did it dictate that humanity Earth’s surface that ocean levels were hundreds of
would be standing where we are today. Yet, it is also feet lower than current levels. Since the LGM, that
undeniable that the Holocene has been the historical ice has receded and melted into the ocean, but not
setting in which humans grew to become the global evenly over time. Warming caused by solar cycles
force we are now. Humans have not flourished in a contributed to a major glacial meltwater event that
vacuum completely on our own. Humans have thrived started around 14,000 years ago and, in turn, cooled
under very specific environmental conditions—the ocean temperatures and reversed warming trends for
conditions of the Holocene. At a minimum, one must roughly a millennium. That cold millennium is known
know what the Holocene is to be aware of the stage on as the Younger Dryas period (c. 12,900 to 11,700 years
which the human drama has played out. ago). Since its conclusion, the world resumed warming
in a new epoch known as the Holocene.
The general marker of the start of the Holocene,
roughly 11,700 years ago, is the end of the last ice Technically, the Holocene is an interglacial period—a
age. The world that humans lived in prior to the warm period between ice ages—that follows a much
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The subdivision of the Holocene Series/Epoch.
Mike Walker, Martin J. Head, John Lowe, Max Berkelhammer, Svante Björck, et al, “Subdividing the Holocene Series/Epoch: formalization of stages/ages
and subseries/subepochs, and designation of GSSPs and auxiliary stratotypes,” Journal of Quaternary Science 34 (2019): 174.
longer pattern throughout the Quaternary Period of
ice growing and receding in cycles. The Quaternary
Period is a unit of geologic time that began 2.6 million
years ago and consists of both the Pleistocene and
the Holocene.25 In the last 800,000 years, there have
been eight similar interglacials. Patterns in the Earth’s
orbit, known as the Milankovitch cycles, affect the
amount of solar energy the Earth absorbs at different
times. The differences in solar energy over time have
been the dominant forcing that moves the climate
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back and forth between ice ages and interglacial warm
periods.26 According to the factors that had dominated
the Earth’s climate over the past 2.6 million years, the
Earth would likely be cooling right now. Instead, the
planet is rapidly warming. That phenomenon will be
the subject of section III of this resource guide.
AN OVERVIEW OF THE HOLOCENE
Scholars divide the Holocene into three periods. The
three periods are dated according to how many years
ago they started and ended, with the year 2000 ce
marking the present. The first period lasted from 11,700
to 8,236 years ago and is named the Early Holocene
Subseries/Subepoch or the Greenlandian Stage/Age.
The second period dates from 8,236 to 4,250 years
ago and is known as the Middle Holocene Subseries/ Location of NGRIP2 ice core sample, indicated in bold font.
Subepoch or the Northgrippian Stage/Age. The third, Mike Walker, Martin J. Head, John Lowe, Max Berkelhammer, Svante
and final, period runs from 4,250 years ago to the Björck, et al, “Subdividing the Holocene Series/Epoch: formalization of
stages/ages and subseries/subepochs, and designation of GSSPs and auxiliary
present and is known as the Late Holocene Subseries/ stratotypes,” Journal of Quaternary Science 34 (2019): 176.
Subepoch or the Meghalayan Stage/Age. Each of these
three periods are described in more detail below.27 from around 11,000 to 7,000 years ago. The ending
date of the Early Holocene coincides with a meltwater
The End of the Last Ice Age and the
event in Canada when a glacial ice sheet collapsed. The
Early Holocene classification of the Early Holocene as the Greenlandian
The Early Holocene lasted from around 11,700 to 8,236 Stage/Age refers to the ice core in Greenland, NGRIP2,
years ago. It occurred during part of the warmest period which bears evidence of the onset of the Holocene at a
of the Holocene—the Holocene thermal maximum depth of 1,492.45 meters into the ice.
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Peopling of global regions in the last 100,000 years. Numbers indicate thousands of years (ky) before present (BP). Graph on
bottom shows proxy indicator of warm and cold periods.
Franz Mauelshagen, “Migration and Climate in World History,” 415.
By the start of the Holocene, humans had already extinction. Other scholars point to a lack of evidence
migrated out of Africa across Eurasia to the east and for that hypothesis and suggest that the animals’
west, to Australia, and to the Americas from the north decline was the result of their own inability to adapt to
to the south.28 In other words, humans were already a changing climate.30
all over the globe. Therefore, the question of how
the transition from the Pleistocene to the Holocene These few examples highlight that climate change
intersected with human life must be answered at was not the same everywhere on the globe, and
the local level because no two places in the world even in a specific location, the interactions between
are identical. New research has investigated human climate, nature, and humans were complex. Local
practices during the Early Holocene in the Iberian environmental conditions and factors that are unique to
Peninsula at the western edge of Europe and in individual human communities make it necessary for
Madagascar off the east coast of Africa, to take two scholars and scientists to study specific geographical
examples.29 In North America, the beginning of the regions in depth. Generalizations have limited
Holocene appears to coincide with the extinction of accuracy. Broadly speaking, though, during the Early
dozens of large mammals. One popular explanation Holocene humans still largely hunted and maintained
for their disappearance is that humans adapting to the mobile communities. Agricultural practices—
new conditions of the Early Holocene hunted them to including staple crop production in the Americas—
increased, but the large agricultural societies typically
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Bronze axe heads from third millenium bce Mesopotamia.
Source: The Sulaimaniya Museum, Iraq
The retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet over the past
18,000 Years.
humans began utilizing metal instruments in new
Dyke, A.S. (2009). Laurentide Ice Sheet. In: Gornitz, V. (eds) Encyclopedia
of Paleoclimatology and Ancient Environments. Encyclopedia of Earth ways. Larger and more socially stratified agricultural
Sciences Series. Springer, Dordrecht. societies also emerged, including, most notably,
the Mesopotamian civilization around 5,500 years
counted as the first of their kind in human history did ago, or 3500 bce. Scholars continue to investigate
not emerge until the Middle Holocene period.31 the role of climate in the development of Eurasian
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settlements during the Middle Holocene, but it
The Middle Holocene appears clear that local social dynamics—and not only
The Middle Holocene, also known as the Northgrippian climate—influenced the fates of burgeoning human
Stage/Age, began around 8,236 years ago and ended communities.33
4,250 years ago. Its name also refers to an ice core from
the same location in Greenland bearing evidence of The Late Holocene
cooling temperatures compared to the Early Holocene. The Late Holocene, or Meghalayan Stage/Age, began
The beginning date of the Middle Holocene, 6200 bce, around 4,250 years ago and continues to the present.
coincides with the collapse of the glacial Laurentide The name “Meghalayan” refers to the location of a
Ice Sheet in Canada, which accelerated the flow of icy cave in northeast India where mineral deposits give
water into the ocean in what is known as a “meltwater evidence of a climatic event at the date marking the
event.” Despite the flow of cold water into the ocean, beginning of the Late Holocene. At a time known
temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere remained as the Holocene Turnover, roughly 4,250 years ago,
high for another thousand years. Around 7,300 years abrupt changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions
ago, between 5300 and 3700 bce, temperatures began led to sudden alterations in weather conditions
to decline due to weakened solar energy, among other around the world.34 The question of whether or not
factors. Known as the Mid-Holocene Transition, this the Late Holocene has ended and given way to the
period marks a turn toward the cooler temperatures that Anthropocene is a matter of debate. Some scholars
would continue in the Late Holocene.32 favor an official adoption of the Anthropocene and a
starting date of 1950, which would then mark the end
During the years of the Middle Holocene, humans
of the Late Holocene and the Holocene altogether.35
lived—as before—in diverse environmental and social
However, in 2024 the International Union of
conditions around the globe. In Eurasia, the Middle
Geological Sciences rejected a proposal to formally
Holocene saw the development of some practices that
name the Anthropocene as a new geological epoch.
have traditionally been regarded as key historical
markers for humanity. In the later centuries of the With the Late Holocene’s starting date of roughly
Middle Holocene, which historians consider as the 2250 bce, it spans a period of human history that is
transition from the Stone Age to the Bronze Age, well documented. Moreover, historical narratives of
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various parts of the world date back to the start of the
Late Holocene or earlier. The challenge of evaluating
these historical records and narratives in relation to the
climate history of the Late Holocene will be discussed
in the next part of Section II.
CLIMATE AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HUMAN CIVILIZATIONS
A good start for beginning to understand the
relationship between climate history and human history
is to try to synchronize the timelines of our narratives
of the two histories. Yet, even this seemingly simple
task has pitfalls. One pitfall is that scholarly fields in
climatology typically date past events—as we have been
doing so far in this sectionn—according to how long
ago they happened, using 1950 ce or 2000 ce as the
present. So, the Holocene began 11,700 years ago, using
the year 2000 ce as the marker for the present.
In our narratives of human history, on the other hand,
Western scholars and global scholars in dialogue with
the West use a calendar system that counts down to
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the year 0, corresponding with the estimated date of
the birth of Jesus Christ, and then back up from there,
bringing us to the year 2024. So, according to this
system, the Holocene began in 9,700 bce. As confusing
as it may be, scholars and students engaged in the
interdisciplinary task of studying climate history and
human history together need to hold two dating systems
in their heads simultaneously and be ready to make
quick calculations. For instance, the Late Holocene
began 4,250 years ago which is the same as 2250 bce.
Another pitfall when trying to synchronize climate
history and human history is that it is hard to
conceptually grasp the different scales of the historical
timelines for each. The Pleistocene is only one of the
most recent geological epochs, and it lasted a miniscule
2.6 million years out of the Earth’s four-billion-year
history.36 Yet, from the perspective of human life, 2.6
million years is a staggering amount of time that dwarfs
the entire history of humanity. (Because climatologists
deal with such large numbers, it is conventional to round
to a number such as 2.6 million.)
One may also notice that sometimes scholars in
climatology use 1950 ce and sometimes they use 2000
Sediment sample from Mawmluh Cave, Meghalaya, northeast ce as the date they count back from when dating an
India, showing the position of the 4.2‐ka event. event that happened many thousands of years ago.
Source: Mike Walker, et al, “Subdividing the Holocene Series/Epoch,” 178. While fifty years feels like a lifetime in our daily
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The spread of agriculture in the Near East.
Source: Teaching the Middle East, The University of Chicago Library
experience, it is largely within the margin of error when and in the centuries following, new agriculturally
estimating the dates of past climatic events throughout based societies sprang up with unprecedented features,
the Holocene. So, the student and the scholar must keep and these societies were larger than previous human
in mind that when dealing with human history since settlements. They remained stationary over long
the so-called start of civilization in Mesopotamia periods of time and made striking modifications to
around 3500 bce, the whole of human history from then their local environments, including the building of
until now falls within a tiny sliver of climate history. impressive structures. People in these societies had
Conversely, climate typically changes at such a slow rate different roles to play and formed classes. These
that some scholars have proposed that people throughout societies developed forms of writing, initially for
history were largely unaware of any changes that might recordkeeping, that were often employed for other
have occurred during the span of a single human life.37 purposes as well, including storytelling. In the
past, scholars have made a value judgement that the
This next part of our discussion will examine human emergence of features such as these represents the
history from the rise of the Mesopotamian civilizations dawn of human civilization. However, more recently,
around 3500 bce to the era known as the late Middle some scholars have critiqued the practice of ranking
Ages in Europe around 1350 ce. In terms of climate civilizations based on such markers.38
history, this timespan runs from the last centuries
of the Middle Holocene into the Late Holocene, just Because the early agrarian societies had an obvious
before the onset of the Little Ice Age (LIA). connection to nature through agriculture, drawing
connections between the societies and climate can
Early Agrarian Societies appear deceptively simple. According to this line of
Traditionally, scholars have counted the development thought, if a society relied on agriculture, any climatic
of large agrarian societies to be a milestone in human impact on crops should mark a direct tie between
history. Although humans had cultivated some crops climate and human society. In reality, the relationship
throughout the Holocene, starting around 3500 bce between humans and the broader natural world
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Egyptian artifact from around 3100 bce.
Source: Ashmolean Museum, University of Oxford
Bronze head depicting an Akkadian ruler. Mesopotamia around 2250 bce, the aforementioned
boundary between the Middle and Late Holocene.
has never been this simple.39 The complexity of the In Mesopotamia and nearby regions, the abrupt
interactions between humans and climate can be seen climate changes of that moment may have resulted in
in even a brief glimpse at some of the more famous cooler and dryer conditions.40 The ruling empire in
early agrarian societies that arose in Mesopotamia, Mesopotamia at the time was the Akkadian Empire,
Egypt, India, and the Americas. which had been established roughly a century before,
around 2334 bce. However, the empire collapsed by
Mesopotamia around 2218 bce. Was climate change and drought the
Mesopotamia, located in and around the current cause of its demise? Some scholars argue that it was,
national boundaries of Iraq, was home to several of and they point to societal collapses at the same time
the most influential empires in Eurasian history. The in Egypt and other regions as well.41 Others, however,
region received more rainfall during the establishment take a more geographically focused approach and
of its early societies than it does today. The region’s have argued that even within Mesopotamia individual
water supply came from the Tigris and Euphrates cities reacted differently to the changing climate, and
Rivers and was augmented by human-built irrigation that not all cities in the area even declined.42 This
systems. The Sumerians in Mesopotamia developed scholarly debate shows the challenges of harmonizing
writing, a priestly class, and planned cities between data from the archives of nature and the archives of
around 3600 and 3000 bce. Subsequent powers in society. It also shows that scholars may get different
the region included the Akkadians, Babylonians, results depending on the scale or scope of their inquiry.
Assyrians, and Persians. The picture changes depending on whether one looks
at empires from a broad perspective or examines
A notable climate-related event occurred in individual cities up close.
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Remains of Mohenjo-Daro, a city in the Indus Valley built
around 2500 bce.
Source: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Ancient Indus Valley
Civilization & Climate Change’s Impact (whoi.edu)
Egypt
Not far from Mesopotamia, another powerful society Olmec Figure from the ninth to twelfth century bce.
arose on the Nile Delta in Egypt. The Egyptians utilized Source: The Metropolitan Museum of Art.
their own form of writing by around 3200 bce and built
colossal monuments, including iconic pyramids by 2500 The Americas
bce. The climatic changes around 2250 bce have also In the Western Hemisphere of the globe, humans
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attracted the attention of scholars of Egypt where the formed societies with many of the same features as
onset of drought is often linked to the collapse of the the early agrarian societies of Mesopotamia, Egypt,
Old Kingdom (c.2700−2200 bce) in Egypt.43 Due to and India. These societies emerged in the region of
well-preserved records of ancient Egyptians’ irrigation the Andes Mountains along the west coast of South
practices and manipulations of the Nile River, scholars America in modern-day Peru. They also emerged in
also study Egypt for insights into the history of human Mesoamerica, a large region spanning parts of Mexico
efforts to protect sustainable farming conditions. and Central America. The Andean civilizations
included the Chavín culture from around 900 to 200
India
bce, which was followed by a series of societies until the
The Indus Civilization in the Indus Valley, located
Inca Empire consolidated control over the entire region
in modern Pakistan, was one of the largest and most
in the 1400s ce. In Mesoamerica, the Olmec ruled from
developed societies in the world. Scholars have divided around 1200 to 400 bce, followed by various societies,
the civilization into three periods. The Early Harappan including the Maya and the Aztec. Climatologists are
phase lasted from around 3200 to 2600 bce and was reconstructing the climate history of the Americas, an
characterized by population growth, new settlements, environmentally diverse part of the world with high
and urbanization. The Mature Harappan phase from mountains and extensive vegetation. As in the Eastern
2600 to 1900 bce saw the most advanced features of Hemisphere, the Holocene in the Americas was marked
the society, including highly stratified social groups, by fluctuating climatic conditions. Scholars continue
complex city planning with gridded streets and to investigate the relationship between the climate and
drainage, and trade between multiple villages and urban human life in the Americas.45
centers. During the Late Harappan phase from 1900
to 1000 bce, populations moved out of urban centers The Mediterranean World During
in favor of smaller village settlements. Scholars do not Antiquity
know the causes of the decline of the once powerful Alexander the Great (356−323 bce), a Greek king
society. A lack of evidence of military conflict leaves from Macedonia, conquered Egypt and Persia and then
open the possibility that climatic factors played a role. traveled as far as India with his army. His conquests
Once again, some scholars point to 2250 bce as a key established a shared common language, Greek, and
turning point in the history of the Indus Civilization.44 shared cultural points of reference throughout all the
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Map of the Roman Empire in 117 ce.
regions he visited. The Roman Empire inherited the and fall of the Greek and Roman Empires. There is not a
region that Alexander had united, and at its greatest conclusive answer to this question. It is possible to make
extent around 117 ce, the Romans ruled much of compelling links between important eras in imperial
Alexander’s realm to the east and even more land to history and the broadest of climatic reconstructions.
the west on both the African and European boundaries Around the Mediterranean, the eighth to fifth centuries
of the Mediterranean Sea. Greek and Rome have had were cooler and wetter than before, providing favorable
an enduring legacy in the history of the Western world, conditions for farming and population growth. Those
including in the Islamic empires that governed much of conditions can be linked to the growing might of
the former Roman Empire. the Greek city-states. During the Roman period, the
centuries of Rome’s peak power, from around 150 bce to
Scholars and public audiences have been interested in 250 ce, featured stable conditions and stable rainfall in
discovering if climate trends played a role in the rise important portions of the empire.46
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Ring from France, c.450–525.
Source: The Metropolitan Museum of Art
represents the transition from antiquity to the Middle
Ages or the medieval period. Traditionally, the Middle
Ages are viewed as lasting until 1450 or 1500 when
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Mosaic depicting Alexander the Great, c. 100 bce. the so-called early modern period began. In this
telling, the Renaissance, running from around 1300 to
It is fair to question, however, how meaningful it is to 1600, is the cultural event that bridges the transition
sketch correlations between well-established historical from the medieval to the early modern period. The
narratives based on the history of empires and such Middle Ages—especially between the fall of Rome
geographically and chronologically broad climate and the Renaissance—have long been described as the
reconstructions. Does adding climate to an essentially Dark Ages because of a supposed decline in culture
unchanged narrative of the rise and fall of the Greek and technology. That entire narrative is increasingly
and Roman Empires explain anything new about human recognized as being unique to European history and as
history or the history of nature? Even more problematic only telling part of the story, even for Europe.47
for the approach of linking large-scale social histories
with large-scale climate history, is the question of Incorporating climate history into the history of
whether or not there are actually any causal connections medieval Europe presents an opportunity for re-
between the two. An event as massive as the rise of the shaping how we tell the story of Europe’s history. Or,
Roman Empire has an almost incalculable number of climate could serve merely to offer a slightly different
causal factors that brought it into being. Did climate vantagepoint for viewing the same story. A climate
truly impact any of those factors? A promising direction event that nicely fits the narrative of the fall of Rome
for climate research is to investigate if, on a smaller ushering in a dark era of human history is the climate
scale, climate conditions impacted people’s daily lives anomaly of 536 ce. Volcanic eruptions served as the
and in what ways it did so. That type of research might forcing factor that ushered in a cold “year without
allow scholars to connect the dots between local climate a summer” in Europe in 536 ce, and several of the
conditions and large-scale social events. coldest summers in the Northern Hemisphere over the
next decade and a half. On the basis of sources from
536 CE: The Worst Year to Be Alive? the archives of nature and archives of society, scholars
The collapse of the Western Roman Empire, a gradual have debated whether 536 ce was a short-term blip on
process that is often tied to the date of 476 ce, marks the radar or the start of a longer period of significant
a defining moment in the traditional narrative of cooling. Compelling arguments based on available
European or Western history. The fall of Rome evidence can be made that 536 ce was very historically
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Xia (c. 2070–1600 bce)
Shang (c. 1600–1050 bce)
Zhou (1050–256 bce)
"Spring and Autumn" period (770–476 bce)
Warring States period (475–221 bce)
Qin (221–207 bce)
Han (207 bce–220 ce)
Three Kingdoms (220–280 ce)
Jin (265–420 ce)
Northern and Southern Dynasties (420–589 ce)
Sui (581–618 ce)
Tang (618–907 ce)
"Five Dynasties and Ten States" period (907–60 ce)
Song (960–1279 ce)
Yuan (1271–1368 ce)
Ming (1368–1644 ce)
Qing (1644–1911 ce)
Dynasties of Imperial China.
Source: Quansheng Ge, Zhixin Hao, Jingyun Zheng, and Yang Liu, “China,”
190.
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significant, or that it was not very significant.48 When
historian Michael McCormick boldly asserted that 536
A bell from the Zhou Dynasty, c. 500 bce.
ce was the worst year to be alive, the claim caught fire
Source: National Museum of Asian Art, Smithsonian
with media outlets.49 It appears to have resonated with
a public that still views the early Middle Ages as a
that over China’s history, warming periods coincided
rough time to be alive.
with population growth.51 Other scholars have studied
The Climate in China and the Mandate of plant growth throughout the Holocene and determined
that from around 2000 to 1600 bce agricultural practices
Heaven and a complex society allowed people to withstand the
Telling the history of climate in China presents a stress of a dry spell in China.52 The analysis in these
similar challenge to that of incorporating climate studies moves beyond a simple correlation between bad
into the history of Europe. A narrative of Chinese climatic conditions and social turmoil.
history organized largely around political history
and dynasties already exists. Will incorporating Even when addressing the matter of whether climate
climate history offer new perspectives on the history impacted the collapse of dynasties, another recent
of Chinese dynasties? Will it offer an alternative way study offers a complex explanation based on robust
of framing or organizing the story of China’s history methodologies. It incorporates a cultural idea known
altogether? Ultimately, time will tell, but scholars as the mandate of heaven that became established
of climate and society in China are already making during the Zhou dynasty (1046−256 bce). The mandate
nuanced and compelling discoveries.50 of heaven was the concept that external conditions
such as prosperity in the land and perhaps even
China is a uniquely interesting and significant subject favorable weather validated the authority of the current
for the combined study of climate and human history. ruler. The study accounts for this unique cultural
China has a remarkable collection of human records feature of Chinese history in assessing how climate
that date back to the Shang dynasty (c.1600−1050 bce). may have influenced some of the many factors that
Scholars have analyzed human records and concluded created stability for a ruler.53
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Portuguese map of the world from 1573.
THE LITTLE ICE AGE (LIA) AND colonialism. The LIA, therefore, provided the climatic
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backdrop to foundational events in the shaping of the
THE COLONIAL WORLD modern world. How the LIA impacted the formation of
The Little Ice Age (LIA) is one of the most well- the modern world is a matter of historical interpretation.
known and well-researched climatic events of the
Late Holocene. Typically dated around 1300−1850 ce, Phases of the LIA
the LIA was a period of cooler global temperatures The LIA eschews neat periodization. The reason it
on average. It is important to note that the LIA did is hard to divide the LIA into clear sections is that
not impact the entire globe evenly—an individual the LIA is more of a conglomeration of events than
location may not have been as cold as somewhere one single event. The leading causes of the LIA were
else. The cooling of the LIA was also not consistent volcanic forcings and periods of lower solar activity
over the centuries it spanned. Yet, during those years, identified by a lack of sunspots. Those occurrences
temperatures were cooler often enough and cooler are known as solar minima, and they happened in
in enough places that they brought down global 1280−1350 (Wolf minimum), 1654−1715 (Maunder
temperatures on average. minimum), and 1790−1820 (Dalton minimum). The
minima roughly corresponded to three periods of
The years of the LIA spanned some very important
glacial advances in the European Alps that took place
developments in human history. The 1300s, at the
from the late 1200s to around 1380, from the 1580s
beginning of the LIA, witnessed the so-called Black
to around 1660, and from around 1810 to 1860.55 In
Death in Europe, a devastating plague that decimated
other words, cooling during the LIA occurred in
the European population. Climatic conditions may
three distinct periods. The effects of this cooling were
have played a role in the timing of the outbreak of the
particularly noticeable in the Northern Hemisphere.
plague, and subsequent outbreaks, which spread via
trade networks spanning Eurasia.54 The European The LIA around the Globe
population rebounded, however, and was still growing The LIA occurred at a time when humans around the
when European states, starting with the expedition of globe became connected to an unprecedented degree.
Christopher Columbus in 1492, made contact with the European contact with the Americas made the Atlantic
Western Hemisphere and immediately began a program Ocean a route heavily traveled by humans. Europeans
of conquering land and people under the system of were also trying to discover new routes to reach parts
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Drawing by Tang Yin (1470–1524) from Ming China.
Source: National Museum of Asian Art, Smithsonian
conception of the Earth’s climate.56 The world that
Europeans first discovered was the world during the
LIA. Colder than usual conditions also impacted the
sites of interaction between Europeans and Indigenous
populations during the first centuries of contact.
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European Empires
Throughout the 1500s, several European states built
overseas empires via various measures of conquest.57
These empires included the Portuguese, the Spanish,
Sahel
the Dutch, the British, and the French. Impacts of
Sahel countries
the LIA influenced the trajectories of these overseas
The Sahel region in Africa. empires in many ways at home and abroad. A cold
Source: Mohammad Al-Saidi, S.A. Saad, Nadir Ahmed Elagib, Environment
spell in the 1590s interacted with cultural and
Development and Sustainability. economic conditions in Spain and England in ways
that encouraged impoverished Spanish residents to
of the globe that had trading partners or resources that stay in Spain and move to urban centers, while English
Europeans coveted. Eventually, new routes opened residents were incentivized to move overseas and
around the southern boundaries of Africa and South participate in settler colonialism.58 Meanwhile, frozen
America, and regular travel spread to the Pacific seas to the north blocked the Dutch Empire in its
Ocean. Other attempted routes, especially near the attempt to find a maritime route to China.59 Climate
North Pole, never materialized. alone did not determine the fate of European empires,
but it did influence the course of their development in
Europeans were relatively ill-equipped for making various ways.
sense of the geography that they encountered.
Deeply entrenched erroneous ideas about climate Africa
and geography that they had inherited from antiquity Recent scholarship confirms that the LIA also impacted
were only slowly discarded. Europeans expected that Africa, though its effects varied across the continent.
the whole globe shared the same climatic conditions One outcome of the LIA for parts of Africa was a
they had experienced around the Mediterranean Sea. decrease in rainfall and a rise in drought conditions. In
As Europeans encountered more of the world, they particular, the Sahel region experienced drying events
struggled to incorporate new regions into a revised around 1600 as well as from 1800 to 1850.
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Asia
Like Europe on the other side of the Eurasian
landmass, China experienced cooler temperatures
during the LIA. South Asia also faced climatic changes
during the LIA as weather patterns were disrupted
by weak monsoon rains. Like most other regions in
Eurasia, China suffered social unrest in the seventeenth
century, but also managed to diversify its crops and
stabilize food prices during the LIA.60
North America
Indigenous survival practices in North America
St. Augustine in Florida was settled by the Spanish in 1565.
equipped Native Americans for the LIA much better
Castillo de San Marco, seen here, was constructed from 1672
than the settlers from Europe who first arrived to 1695.
between the fifteenth and seventeenth centuries. As
the Spanish, English, and French fought each other to weather and religion. The seventeenth century, which
gain a foothold in Florida, their navies were repeatedly was indeed a violent century throughout Europe, further
stymied by the weather itself because of their inability strained premodern sensibilities about the weather
to adapt to and anticipate local conditions. Cold and helped usher in the Enlightenment, when people
weather in Florida—yes, Florida—during the LIA finally rejected outdated ideas about the weather based
slowed the process of colonialism there, but also on knowledge from antiquity in favor of knowledge
exacerbated violence against local populations. When
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based on empirical observation. Additionally, more
harsh weather limited available resources, colonists sophisticated infrastructure and stable governments
sought to forcibly take food supplies that Indigenous were able to mitigate the dangers posed by climate
populations had shared during times of plenty.61 On the change during the last decades of the LIA in the 1800s.
western side of North America where Spain claimed
vast territories, European newcomers often became This narrative of the LIA appears to resonate with
reliant on local populations for survival after venturing the public based on its popularity, but it does have
out to new regions. flaws. As some recent studies have shown, common
ideas about the weather cannot be so cleanly divided
From the “Seventeenth-Century Crisis” between pre- and post-Enlightenment mentalities.63
to the Nineteenth Century Additionally, from the perspective of the Anthropocene
The LIA has been incorporated into a traditional today, trust that modern statecraft and infrastructure
narrative of the modernization process that supposedly can protect humans from the dangers of climate change
took place in Europe.62 The narrative will likely be appears misguided. Perhaps a more important story
familiar to many. Its key markers are the Middle Ages about the developments from the seventeenth century
as a period of superstition and blind religious fanaticism, to the nineteenth century is the story of the path to
the Renaissance as the moment when humans centered the globe’s current predicament in which humanity
themselves in the world, the Scientific Revolution when appears bound to exacerbate an ongoing climate crisis.
a modern scientific outlook replaced superstition, with That is the story of the transition from the Holocene to
the culminating event being the Enlightenment, when the Anthropocene, which will be taken up in the next
all the pieces were put together and modern society with section of this resource guide.
a democratic state arrived in the world.
SECTION II SUMMARY
This narrative has been disputed by scholars on a The Holocene began around 11,700 years ago
6
variety of fronts, but popular books by some scholars at the end of the last ice age.
have kept the narrative intact and weaved the LIA into
its fabric. In this telling, the middle phase of the LIA 6 Humans had already spread around the world
with colder average temperatures from around 1560 by the start of the Holocene.
to 1630 put a strain on superstitious beliefs about the 6 The Holocene is divided into three stages: the
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Early Holocene (11,700 to 8,236 years ago), the can be an opportunity for fresh historical
Middle Holocene (8,236 to 4,250 years ago), perspectives, but sometimes climate is merely
and the Late Holocene (4,250 years ago to the added to existing historical narratives.
present). The Little Ice Age (LIA) was a period of cooler
6
6 Humans began forming large agrarian societies global temperatures, on average, from around
around the end of the Middle Holocene. 1300 to 1850 ce.
6 It is not clear if climate played a major role 6 A popular historical narrative describes how
in the rise or fall of the Greek and Roman humans overcame the LIA by building modern
Empires or in most large-scale societal events. states, but that narrative is complicated by the
Integrating climate history into human history current conditions of the Anthropocene.
6
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Section III
The Anthropocene
SECTION III INTRODUCTION
In one context, the Anthropocene is a technical term
denoting that since around 1950, the human impact on
the Earth has been substantial enough to leave a mark
in the geologic record. The word derives from the Greek
anthropos, meaning “human,” and kainós, meaning
“new.”64 As a result of the nuclear weapons testing in
the 1950s, for example, traces of plutonium-239—an
artificial element—can be found in sediment core
samples.65 Other environmental changes linked to
human activity, like higher concentrations of CO2 in the
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atmosphere, also create unique signatures in the rock
A London factory that built ships’ boilers and engines, 1863.
strata, or layers of rock, that geologists examine in order
Source: Dickens’s London: in pictures (telegraph.co.uk).
to decide the boundaries of various geological epochs.66
In a broader context, the “Anthropocene” is linked to Since Crutzen and Stoermer introduced it, the
contemporary climate change, or global warming, in Anthropocene has not only become a widely used term,
both scientific and popular discourse. Additionally, but scholars in geological fields have also moved toward
news reports and educational content raising awareness formally recognizing the Anthropocene as a geological
of the realities of climate change often refer to the epoch. In 2019, an authoritative body of scholars—the
Anthropocene. In popular usage, the “Anthropocene” Anthropocene Working Group (AWG) acting under
is a term that evokes the human behaviors that are the guidance of the Subcommission on Quaternary
causing climate change and the impacts of climate Stratigraphy (SQS) and the International Commission
change on our world and our lives. on Stratigraphy (ICS)—voted in favor of treating the
Anthropocene as a formal geological epoch beginning
Section III of this guide will explain what the in the mid-twentieth century.69 Their proposed starting
Anthropocene is according to scholars and then date of around 1950 corresponds to the so-called “Great
will examine the causes and consequences of the Acceleration” when many of the developments that
Anthropocene. Paul J. Crutzen and Eugene F. originated around the start of the Industrial Revolution
Stoermer first used the term “Anthropocene” in amplified. While their proposal was not accepted by the
the year 2000. For them, the term designated a International Union of Geological Sciences, the term
new geological epoch, following the Holocene, that nonetheless has currency and relevance as a means of
recognizes the “central role of mankind in geology and describing the era in which humans have significantly
ecology.”67 They proposed the late eighteenth century impacted the global environment.
as a starting date of the Anthropocene to coincide
with the popularization of the steam engine and early The Anthropocene and the climate are interrelated.
records of growing greenhouse gas concentrations in The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
the atmosphere.68 Historians commonly label the same (IPCC) defines the Anthropocene as “a proposed new
period as the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. geological epoch resulting from significant human-
driven changes to the structure and functioning of the
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Earth System, including the climate system.”70 The movement in relation to the Sun. While scholars do not
AWG offers a robust list of phenomena associated with know exactly when the Holocene would have given
the Anthropocene, many of which are climate-related: way to another ice age, the Anthropocene has disrupted
that trajectory.74 According to existing natural factors,
an order-of-magnitude increase in erosion the Earth would currently be headed toward a cooling
and sediment transport associated with period, but anthropogenic—or human-related—causes
urbanization and agriculture; marked and have set the Earth’s climate in the direction of rapid
abrupt anthropogenic perturbations of the warming instead.
cycles of elements such as carbon, nitrogen,
phosphorus and various metals together with The characteristics of the Anthropocene’s climate
new chemical compounds; environmental change are also unique compared to climate history
changes generated by these perturbations, during the prior years of the Holocene. A study of
including global warming, sea-level rise, temperature variability over the past two thousand
ocean acidification and spreading oceanic years finds that the largest warming trends during that
‘dead zones’; rapid changes in the biosphere period have occurred since the middle of the twentieth
both on land and in the sea, as a result of century.75 In addition to unprecedented levels of
habitat loss, predation, explosion of domestic warming, another unique feature of global warming
animal populations and species invasions; during the Anthropocene is its global synchrony.76 In
and the proliferation and global dispersion other words, global warming today is happening more
of many new ‘minerals’ and ‘rocks’ including evenly around the globe than past climate change.
concrete, fly ash and plastics, and the myriad During the Little Ice Age (LIA), global temperatures
‘technofossils’ produced from these and were cooler from around 1300 to 1850 on average.
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other materials.71 One must note, however, that cooler temperatures on
average does not mean that temperatures were cooler
The AWG further notes that many of these changes everywhere at once.
will last for at least thousands of years and might
permanently alter the Earth System.72 The idea of During the LIA, global cooling did not have the same
the Anthropocene allows scholars, educators, and geographic consistency that global warming does during
journalists to gather the changes that humans are the Anthropocene. The reason for this difference is the
making to the Earth and the climate and speak of causes of the climate change. The LIA was caused by
those changes together in a comprehensible way. The solar forcings and volcanic forcings, which had more
Anthropocene consists of many significant changes to local impacts than current climate change caused by
the Earth System that are happening simultaneously greenhouse gases spread throughout the atmosphere.77
due to unprecedented human activities. The sources of those greenhouse gases are linked to
well-known developments in human history.
THE ORIGINS OF THE
The Industrial Revolution and the
ANTHROPOCENE
In terms of climatic conditions, the Anthropocene marks Burning of Fossil Fuels
a stark contrast to the earlier years of the Holocene. The Discussion of the Industrial Revolution, beginning in the
Holocene began around 11,700 years ago and is best late eighteenth century and flourishing in the nineteenth
described as an interglacial period. It is merely the latest century, brings to mind large coal-powered factories
in a series of many warm periods nestled between two and soot-covered workers who were sometimes still
ice ages, or glacials, characterized by significant ice children. The British writer Charles Dickens (1812−70)
cover across the globe. Scholars cannot precisely predict popularized this image of the Industrial Revolution
when the Holocene interglacial would have ended and through his vivid descriptions of such scenes in his
the next glacial inception would begin.73 The orbit of the literary works, including A Christmas Carol (1843)
Earth, which influences the interaction between solar and Oliver Twist (1837−39). The term “Industrial
energy and the Earth System, has led to previous cycles Revolution” was already in use in the 1800s.78 Even
of ice ages and interglacials. Those cycles correspond people alive at that time recognized that machine
to the Milankovitch cycles—patterns of the Earth’s manufacturing and accompanying changes in the
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Changes in U.S. energy consumption, 1850–2018.
Source: Yang, et al., “Evolution of energy and metal demand.”
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Charles Dickens.
economy signaled a major transformation in society.
The Industrial Revolution has taken on a new layer Global population of humans, 1750–2010. OECD refers
of significance in light of the Anthropocene. As to member countries of the Organisation for Economic
mentioned previously, Crutzen and Stoermer argued Cooperation and Development. BRICS refers to Brazil,
for making the popularization of the steam engine Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
the starting date of the Anthropocene. Indeed, the Source: IGBP, “Great Acceleration”
introduction of the coal-powered steam engine was a Scholars today are grappling with the challenges
landmark moment in the history of humans burning posed by climate change during the Anthropocene,
fossil fuels to produce the energy that powers our and that experience may provide fresh perspectives
machines. Some scholars still argue for the importance for reconsidering how historians can tell the history of
of recognizing the era around 1800 to 1850 as being the Industrial Revolution.81 In traditional narratives,
foundational to the Anthropocene.79 Nevertheless, a the Industrial Revolution was a story of the human
scholarly consensus has formed around making the conquest of nature and of the human capacity for
mid-twentieth century, roughly 1950, the starting date perpetual growth. The conditions of the Anthropocene
of the Anthropocene. This decision was influenced call both of those narratives into question as it appears
by a more detailed understanding that the Industrial that humanity may now be stretching the limits of
Revolution itself had a historical development. While the Earth’s natural resources and resilience. It is
1800 might mark the start of the technology that has possible that in the future, the history of the Industrial
resulted in large greenhouse gas emissions, the bulk of Revolution will be less of a success story and more of a
those emissions came only later.80 cautionary tale.
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Correlation of socio-economic trends and Earth System trends, 1750–2010.
Source: IGBP “Great Acceleration.”
The “Great Acceleration” and the
Beginning of the Anthropocene
Scholars have recognized that the features of the
industrial world that characterize the Anthropocene
have not been stable since the start of the Industrial
Revolution around 1800. In fact, around 1950 the
scale of human activities that altered the Earth System
began to greatly increase. In other words, more people
began doing more of the things that are changing
the planet. Environmental historian J. R. McNeill
labeled the increase that occurred starting around
1950 as the “Great Acceleration.”82 A key factor in this
acceleration, McNeill notes, is the rise in the human
population. The human population in 1780 around Atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, 1750–2010.
the start of the Industrial Revolution was less than a Source: IGBP “Great Acceleration.”
billion. By 1930 it had more than doubled to around
2 billion, and between then and now it has nearly The decades since 1950 are unique in human history
quadrupled to more than 8 billion in less time.83 in terms of how quickly and how greatly people have
transformed the natural world.84 Humans left little
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Correlation between yearly temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.
Source: NOAA.
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trace of their existence in the world for hundreds of
thousands of years before the Holocene began around
12,000 years ago. Since that time, humans have altered
landscapes and built monuments that are still visible
today. Yet, since the mid-twentieth century, humans
have interacted with the planet on a scale that has
never been seen before. Although it is difficult to
conceptualize, the transformations that humans are
currently driving in the natural world match or surpass
the natural causes of climate change in the past.
Humans are pushing the planet out of the Holocene
and into a new geological and climatic epoch.
Eunice Newton Foote.
THE CAUSES OF THE
ANTHROPOCENE is about seven miles thick, which is where the Earth’s
New research continues to support the scientific weather occurs. Conversely, the higher layers of the
finding that higher concentrations of carbon dioxide atmosphere, where the air is thinner, are cooling. The
and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are diverging temperature reactions in different layers of
causing global warming. Scholars are refining their the atmosphere could create instability. New findings
understanding of how this process works and adding such as this confirm that human greenhouse gas
precision to their knowledge of how human-caused emissions are altering the Earth System even as more
changes are interacting with the Earth System. detailed information complicates the picture of the
For instance, scientists have determined that rising relationship between rising global temperatures and
carbon dioxide levels throughout the atmosphere human behavior.
cause different types of changes at different layers
A graph showing the correlation between higher
of the atmosphere.85 Temperatures are rising in the
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and
troposphere, the lowest layer of the atmosphere that
rising global surface temperatures only shows part
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The 10 largest oil1 producers and share of total world oil production in 2022
Ten largest oil producers in 2022 by nation.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
of the story of the Anthropocene. It does not explain machines. In the twentieth and twenty-first centuries,
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why or how humans are releasing those gases into coal has continued to be used to power electric plants,
the atmosphere. To understand that part of the story, and petroleum, or oil, has been used to power machines,
one must look at past human behavior in the context including automobiles. As fossil fuels are burned for
of human history. It was only after mechanisms for these various purposes, carbon and other chemicals
extracting and burning fossil fuels were developed within the fossil fuels that had been sitting within the
that people become aware of the challenges of the Earth are then released as gases into the atmosphere.
Anthropocene. It is true that as early as the mid- Once in the atmosphere, they serve as greenhouse gases
nineteenth century, the American scientist Eunice and warm the surface temperature of the Earth.
Newton Foote (1819−88) had argued that atmospheric
water vapor and carbon dioxide could interact Geography is an important factor in the extraction of
with solar rays to raise the Earth’s temperature.86 fossil fuels and their emission as greenhouse gases.
Nevertheless, on a scale that dwarfed the insights of Fossil fuels can only be extracted from locations where
any one individual or group of researchers, humans at they are found. Where they are used has historically
that same time were building a global infrastructure depended on which regions of the world have had the
that ran, and continues to run, on fossil fuels. wealth and political power to build the infrastructure
for them. In the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, the
Global Production of Greenhouse Gases West—mostly regions in the Global North, including
There is a complex process involved in taking carbon Western Europe and North America—industrialized
stored inside the Earth and releasing it as a gas into and created cities and transportation systems that
the atmosphere. So-called fossil fuels are formed from required great quantities of fossil fuels to maintain.
the remains of living organisms from past geological Corporations and governments from those regions
epochs. These remains are stored within the Earth, also developed the transnational infrastructure that
so the carbon contained in these fossil fuels does not was required to extract and transport fossil fuels from
interact with the Earth’s subsystems on the surface of wherever they were found around the globe to where
the Earth and influence the climate. Since the Industrial the fossil fuels were consumed. Today, the countries
Revolution, however, humans have utilized fossil fuels that sit on deposits of fossil fuels still extract them,
as a means of producing energy by burning them. In while the countries that consume fossil fuels in large
the nineteenth century, coal was burned to power steam quantities have multiplied. If one takes oil as an
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The 10 largest oil1 consumers and share of total world oil consumption in 2021
Ten largest oil consumers in 2021 by nation.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
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Freeways and smog in twentieth-century Los Angeles.
Source: Los Angeles Times
example, the United States was both its top producer
and top consumer in the early 2020s.87
The History of Oil Extraction
The extraction and possession of fossils fuels by those
who want to use them has often been a contested and An oil field in Kirkuk, Iraq.
fraught process.88 The history of oil extraction in the
Middle East, particularly Iraq, in the early twentieth and imperialism. In their dealings with local leaders,
century offers an example of this. When oil was Western powers prioritized gaining access to oil over
discovered by Europeans in the region shortly before supporting democracy in oil-rich regions.89 In the
World War I, Western corporations and governments Iraqi city of Kirkuk, where oil was discovered in 1927,
quickly acted to establish a means of controlling global geopolitics and British colonial influence shaped
the oil. The history of oil in the twentieth century is the contours of local urban life, straining relationships
intertwined with the history of European colonialism between different groups within the diverse city’s
population.90
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U.S. sources of greenhouse gas emissions.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
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Map of the globe showing extent of European colonialism.
Source: Vox
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Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe, 1990–2017.
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Source: Mariano González-Sánchez and Juan Luis Martín-Ortega, “Greenhouse Gas Emissions Growth in Europe: A Comparative Analysis of Determinants,”
Sustainability 12 (2020).
The ability and willingness of imperial powers to Some gases besides those produced by fossil fuels are
exert force in order to secure access to oil in the greenhouse gases as well. These include methane and
early twentieth century illustrates the complexity of nitrous oxide, which are released in a variety of human
the human side of the Anthropocene. Even before activities, including agriculture, landfill use, coal
humanity had a widespread awareness of the adverse mining, and oil and natural gas production.93 Yet, in
environmental consequences caused by the burning the United States in 2020, methane and nitrous oxide
of fossil fuels, the value of black gold spurred some combined for less than 20 percent of greenhouse gas
people to build wealth at the expense of other people’s emissions while the burning of fossil fuels contributed
freedom and economic viability.91 Seen in this light, over 72 percent of greenhouse gas emissions.94
the economic obstacles to addressing climate change
today have continuity with the earlier centuries of Historic Greenhouse Gas Emissions in
the Industrial Revolution. The oil industry has a long the West
history of successfully overcoming challenges that We can better understand the historical context of
threaten its profitability. greenhouse gas emissions in the West by considering
some important features of human history over the
Current Sources of Fossil Fuels past several centuries. Starting around 1500, European
The burning of fossil fuels makes up the majority of empires spread around the world and created colonies
global greenhouse gas emissions. The United Nations that extracted valuable natural resources and human
(UN) reports that fossil fuels—coal, oil, and gas— labor that was used to create great wealth, which was
comprise over 75 percent of global greenhouse gas concentrated in Europe itself. When industrialization
emissions and almost 90 percent of carbon dioxide started around 1800, European nations—and nations
emissions.92 It should be noted that coal, oil, and gas such as the United States—used the wealth that they
are sources of fossil fuels that humans still widely had accumulated to build factories and industrial
extract and utilize. All three sources are still very infrastructure. Western powers maintained relationships
relevant to the current discussion of greenhouse gases. with colonial subjects to produce natural resources such
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Chart of global GDP by region in 2021.
Source: Visualcapitalist.com
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Annual carbon dioxide emissions in China and the United States since 1800.
Source: PolitiFact
as food, cotton, or oil in colonies and transport them is not merely one of symbolic value—a value judgement
to the West for consumption or manufacturing.95 The of who is “modern” and who is not; housing industrial
consumption of fossil fuels and emissions of greenhouse centers within the global economic system produces
gases were concentrated in the Western world, which wealth locally. Using gross domestic product (GDP) as
housed the urban centers of industrialization. a marker of wealth, one can see that global wealth is
still concentrated in Western countries, which benefited
Although the process of Western industrialization was from industrialization for centuries.96
a global process that relied on resources and human
labor from around the world, traditional narratives of the The history of global European colonialism from
modernization of the world focused on developments around 1500 and industrialization from around 1800
within the West in isolation. Europe and the West came has had lasting impacts on the situation in the twenty-
to see itself as modern or “developed,” while other parts first century as humans endeavor to muster a response
of the world that did not industrialize were considered to global warming. In Western Europe, wealthy
to be “developing.” The use of fossil fuels and emissions countries have invested in technology to reduce
of greenhouse gases as a byproduct, therefore, have greenhouse gas emissions and have cut emissions.97
become intrinsically linked to perceptions of what a The United States has also cut its greenhouse gas
modern nation or society looks like. The issue, however, emissions from higher levels in the early 2000s.98
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India emissions
CO2 emissions in India by fuel type (billion tonnes)
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Carbon dioxide emissions in India.
Source: BBC
However, even with the economic resources that as a means of building societies that are still held up as
European and North American countries possess, models of modern life. Now, as China and India have
spending money to significantly address climate the opportunity to achieve those same ambitions, the
change is politically difficult. Globally, the picture rules are suddenly being changed, and those nations are
becomes even more dynamic and complex. sometimes blamed as the new culprits responsible for
climate change.99 Such a verdict seems unfair to some.
Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Yet, at the same time, climate change is a serious matter,
While the United States and the European Union have and the United States and Europe cannot sufficiently cut
cut greenhouse gas emissions, China and India have global emissions alone.
increased theirs. Taking carbon dioxide emissions as a
marker, China has become the world’s leading emitter, The global situation regarding fossil fuel emissions is
and India has moved up to the fourth place behind complex, and even the narrative that the United States
the U.S. and the EU, respectively. On the surface, this and Western Europe are seemingly headed in the right
situation may appear to be a simple case in which China direction while China and India are going the other
and India need to take the same path as the U.S. and way is too simplistic. When one considers population,
Europe in cutting emissions. But it is not that simple. the argument that India and China are now chiefly
The United States and Europe used fossil fuels as a responsible for climate change falters. Per person,
means of achieving prosperity for their inhabitants and China emits almost half as much carbon dioxide as the
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Total and per capita emissions of CO2 per year
Comparison of the five leading carbon dioxide emitters.
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Source: BBC
United States does. India emits less than one-seventh however, is not unidirectional. A robust understanding
the amount of carbon dioxide per person compared to of the Anthropocene involves an awareness that while
the United States.100 humans have impacted nature, the relationship between
humanity and nature is reciprocal. Nature also impacts
The centuries-long legacy of the Industrial Revolution the human experience.
and deeply entrenched models of what the features of
a modern nation should be are influencing people’s It is difficult to precisely identify any direct
reactions to climate change today. The Anthropocene consequences of the Anthropocene or current climate
has put humans in an unprecedented situation, but on a change, but evidence suggests that both the natural
cultural level, global societies remain deeply connected world and human societies are being influenced
to the geopolitical legacies of the past few hundred by climate change. The Earth System is inherently
years. A sizable portion of China’s emissions are complex with many different subsystems interacting
linked to its exports, which are still largely consumed with each other, creating feedbacks that are difficult
by people in the United States and Europe.101 to anticipate or even recognize. Drawing a direct
Moreover, China has only produced about a quarter of connection between climate conditions and individual
the cumulative amount of CO2 emissions of Western events such as a flood or a fire can be tenuous. As
nations since 1750.102 those types of events compound over a relatively
short amount of time, however, scientists can begin to
THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE observe potential causes in the climate that contribute
to their occurrence.
ANTHROPOCENE
The name “Anthropocene” deliberately evokes the role The impacts of climate change on humans and the
of humanity in creating a new epoch in climate history. societies we have organized ourselves into can be
Human-caused changes to the chemical configuration equally fraught. We are billions of people, but each
of the Earth System have led to the global warming one of us acts individually with immense complexity.
that characterizes the Anthropocene. The relationship Individual weather-related events can drastically
between humans and nature in the Anthropocene,
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change, or even end, a person’s life. Yet, gradual for generations are facing conditions that test the limits
changes in temperature over decades are difficult of human resilience. In the summer of 2023, the heat
for anyone to detect within the comparatively short in Iran pushed the boundaries of human capacities
time span of a human life. Cultural factors such as with the heat index reaching 158 degrees Fahrenheit.106
media and social beliefs can powerfully color people’s While a packed news cycle of striking stories does not
perception of the natural world, even during times of prove that such events are happening more frequently
striking climatic change.103 Even when weather does or that those events are caused by climate change,
strike in the most powerful ways, how people respond scientists are diligently collecting robust records from
is heavily influenced by things such as communal ties around the world that do provide systematic data about
and deeply held beliefs.104 Nevertheless, the evidence the frequency and severity of abnormal weather-related
that the Anthropocene and changes in the natural conditions.107 While conclusions are tentative and more
world are impacting human life has become nearly evidence will bring greater clarity, scientists agree that
impossible to ignore. As scholars and the public the world is already experiencing the consequences
continue to observe natural anomalies, scientists will of climate change.108 Three notable areas that are
continue to refine our understanding of the connection particularly impactful for human societies are fires,
between those events and climate change. floods, and droughts.
Climate Change as Part of Compounding Fires
Ecological Crises In just the past few years, abnormally severe fires
While climate change, or global warming, may be have ravaged Greece, Australia, California, Canada,
the characteristic of the Anthropocene that garners and Hawaii. The frequency and massive scale of fires
the most public attention, the impacts of climate today are staggering.109 Global warming contributes to
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change are best understood within a broader context the conditions that have led to these and other fires.110
of changes that are happening in the natural world. Warmer temperatures amplify the dry and windy
Scientists and other concerned individuals have conditions that fuel and spread fires. Other factors
grouped three troubling developments together in the also play a role in fires, including practices of forest
shared framework of the triple planetary crisis.105 management. Additionally, the human toll that the fires
The three components of the triple planetary crisis are: exact depends on many aspects of human interactions
1) climate change, 2) air pollution, and 3) biodiversity with nature. Building housing communities deeper
loss. into forests leaves those new developments vulnerable
to local fires.
The causes of these three events and the locations
where they are felt range in scale. For instance, the Floods
loss of certain animals or plants is often related to A warming climate exacerbates many of the variables,
disruptions in a local habitat. Similarly, air pollution like rain and snowmelt, that contribute to flood risk.
varies from location to location, and even within a Rising sea levels—the result of melting glaciers
single city. Scientists actively study how the three and warmer ocean temperatures—threaten densely
components are linked, but regardless of the causal populated coastal communities in the U.S. and
factors that unite them, human behavior provides elsewhere in the world. According to the National
a common connection. It can be helpful to keep Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA),
these three crises distinct in our minds and use the “high-tide flooding is now 300% to more than 900%
categories to create some order amid sometimes more frequent than it was 50 years ago.”111 Sea level
daunting “bad news” about the environment. rise also accelerates coastal erosion, increasing the
vulnerability of communities further inland to storm
Stress on Human Habitats surge flooding.
If one pays attention to local and global news
headlines, it seems apparent that human habitats Moving forward, people will face difficult decisions
around the world are currently experiencing stress regarding land use. Will people invest in safeguarding
from natural forces. Places where humans have lived their communities from new ecological dangers
or retreat to new locations? Either option promises
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Damage caused by Hurricane Ian in 2022.
Source: The New York Times
Now, as in other coastal U.S. cities before, local
inhabitants must decide whether to rebuild in areas that
have been destroyed by flooding. Increased flooding
amplified by climate change is expected to continue in
India as well.113 In both of these regions, land use will
be a factor in the damage caused by future flooding.
Droughts
While warmer temperatures over large bodies of
water can result in more water in the atmosphere and
increased precipitation, warmer temperatures over
dry land can wick away what little water there is. In
North America, climate change exacerbates existing
susceptibility to drought in the dry Western United
States. By 2022, a megadrought in the region was
the worst drought in 1,200 years.114 Studies have also
found that the Horn of Africa is a hundred times
more likely to experience drought and the Western
Mediterranean is more likely to experience heat as a
Satellite view of smoke from fires in Greece, 2007. result of climate change.115 In both of these regions, as
Source: NASA in other vulnerable places around the world, drought
can drastically impact the viability of a region for
disruptions and challenges. To take one example, human life. Water is an absolute necessity and essential
in 2022, Hurricane Ian struck Florida, causing 156 to food production.
fatalities and resulting in $112 billion in damages.112
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In the summer of 2021, 40 percent of the United States experienced drought.
Source: Yale Climate Connections
Stress on Human Life temperatures in areas that experience disrupted
When the places that people live are threatened or weather conditions, such as disruptions to the polar
destroyed, humans pay a price in multiple ways. Even jet stream, also pose a risk to many people, especially
the experience of living in an environment that is less in populated areas that do not have the infrastructure,
hospitable to humans can take a toll on the people in such as adequate heating or cooling, to mitigate
impacted regions. Climate change is already adversely abnormally severe temperatures. Some of the health
influencing people’s health and financial wellbeing threats posed by climate change may be less obvious.
around the globe. In some cases, people are moving For instance, a 2017 report from the United Nations
out of their homes and home communities because of identified five important insights related to health risks
factors including climate impacts. associated with climate change: 1) Certain groups
have higher susceptibility to climate-sensitive health
Health impacts; 2) Many infectious diseases, including water-
Many of the negative effects of climate change borne ones, are highly sensitive to climate conditions;
on people’s health are obvious. The conditions 3) Climate change lengthens the transmission season
mentioned above—fires, floods, and droughts—pose and expands the geographical range of many diseases;
a tremendous threat to people who live in the vicinity 4) Climate change will bring new and emerging health
of those phenomena. Increased heat and colder winter issues, including heatwaves and other extreme events;
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and 5) Malnutrition and undernutrition influenced by of greenhouse gas emissions. While many people are
floods and drought.116 sounding the alarm and calling for decisive action
now, others favor maintaining the status quo. Life in
Financial Impacts the Anthropocene has sparked a variety of human
The financial costs of climate change are diverse responses to climate change, from dread to apathy.
and widespread. In regions that depend on specific The impending risks of humanity’s current course are
ecological conditions for farming or fishing, a defining feature of the conversation about what we
climate change can threaten the livelihood of entire should do in response to our changing climate.
communities. The destruction wrought by climate-
related disasters obviously impacts those hit by such SECTION III SUMMARY
disasters. Additionally, the threat of future damage 6 The “Anthropocene” is a term that describes
is disrupting existing systems for mitigating and a new era in climate history that recognizes
overcoming disasters when they do occur. In the the central role of humankind in geology and
United States, climatic conditions have been one facet ecology today.
of the decision to stop insuring property in regions
susceptible to fire or flood.117 When people are unable 6 The Anthropocene has been linked to the
to secure insurance for their property, they are more beginning of the Industrial Revolution around
vulnerable to financial ruin as a result of a natural 1800.
disaster. Even if such a disaster does not materialize, 6 Most scholars today agree that the
disruptions to insurance markets can cause damage on Anthropocene began around 1950 with the
their own to the financial stability of a region. “Great Acceleration” and the start of a rapid
growth in the human population and the rapid
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Migration rise in greenhouse gas emissions.
While migration is a multifaceted phenomenon that
6 The burning of fossil fuels is the leading cause
involves many different factors, climate change is
of the Anthropocene and the global warming
already driving many people from their homes. A
that characterizes it.
United States government report estimates that almost
30 million people move their homes due to extreme 6 Through European colonialism and
weather events every year.118 The number of people who industrialization, Western countries in Europe
choose to move or are forced to move due to climate and North America accumulated great wealth.
conditions is bound to rise as long as current conditions Their success also made the robust use of fossil
persist or worsen. Already in the twenty-first century, fuels a marker of the modern nation.
immigration caused by war and other factors has been 6 Due to their historical backgrounds and current
a source of political conflict throughout the globe. resources, countries in different parts of the
The welfare of migrants is one of the most daunting world today face unique challenges in the effort
challenges already confronting the world today. to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Climate change is already impacting the
Impending Risks 6
natural world and the human population.
It is easy to study the realities of climate change today,
to see the impacts it is already having on the Earth 6 Climate-related migration is already underway
System and to become alarmed about the possibilities and will likely continue to be a major factor in
of where the world could go from here. Scientists are the human response to climate change moving
constantly revising models of what future climate forward.
change will look like depending on different levels
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Section IV
Responding to the Climate Crisis
SECTION IV INTRODUCTION
Although the idea is not universally accepted,
climate scientists and much of the public around the
United States and the globe agree that that the world
is currently experiencing a climate crisis. Climate
experts are appropriately cautious about linking
individual weather-related events to climate because
many different factors can influence a single flood,
heatwave, or other event. However, evidence continues
to accumulate that historically rare and/or extreme
weather phenomena are occurring more frequently.
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Additionally, scientists are observing changes in the
Earth System—including ice sheet loss, warmer ocean
and atmospheric temperatures, sea level rise, and local
ecological disruptions—that pose a threat to both Sputnik was the first human-made satellite to orbit Earth in
human and nonhuman life and to the habitats of an 1957.
Source: National Air and Space Museum
increasing number of species of animals and plants.
Taken together, these future climate-related threats
and compounding weather-related disasters around the having an unprecedented awareness of our changing
globe can reasonably be seen as a single climate crisis. climate is the final, dramatic, chapter of this resource
This final section of the resource guide explores when guide. It is a drama that continues to unfold and that
and how people became aware of the climate crisis and has an uncertain ending.
some of the most influential responses to the climate
crisis through the present day. RECOGNIZING THE CLIMATE CRISIS
In the late 1950s, growing numbers of scientists
One could craft a historical narrative about the began to systematically measure carbon dioxide
origins of the current climate crisis that dates back levels in the Earth’s atmosphere and realized that its
to the beginning of the Industrial Revolution or even rise could cause global warming. Throughout the
farther back to the development of large-scale human 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s, scientists steadily expanded
societies. Yet, no one living six thousand years ago their knowledge that human behavior, particularly
could have anticipated the social and technological the burning of fossil fuels, was changing the Earth’s
changes that have led to the present climate crisis. Not climate in ways that are dangerous for humans. A
even insightful nineteenth-century scientists such as fascinating process allowed humans to achieve an
Eunice Newton Foote, who recognized that carbon unprecedented understanding of the natural world.
dioxide in the atmosphere could raise temperatures Scientific knowledge does not develop in a vacuum;
on Earth, could anticipate the exact form the climate rather, cultural factors specific to the global conditions
crisis would take. Instead, this section focuses on of the second half of the twentieth century influenced
those people who since the late 1950s recognized that how humans learned about climate change and how
a climate crisis was unfolding. Humanity’s response to humans responded to that knowledge.
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The Keeling curve, showing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere since systematic records began.
Source: Scripps Institute of Oceanography
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Scientists work in communities.119 As in the study bring together groups of scientists from a common
of any community, tracing the causes of human field and provide those scientists with the resources
behavior is complicated and fascinating. The story to study their respective research interests. The fields
of how communities of scientists recognized that of study and the organizations that house and support
fossil fuel emissions might cause global warming the members of those fields are not static. Rather, they
and then organized their activities to determine that continually evolve as new research interests raise new
those emissions truly were warming the globe is an questions, which, in turn, necessitate new approaches
interesting story. To understand the story, one must to answering those questions.
realize that around 1950 scientists did not really
know the appropriate questions to ask about climate The story of how scientists, from the late 1950s to
change, nor did they have the tools and teams in place around 1990, came to understand that the world
to answer those questions. The path to understanding might face a climate crisis involved lots of dynamic
contemporary climate change was one of steady interaction within and between different scientific
discovery and constant building on recent gains in communities, and it was also influenced by major
knowledge and understanding. It was as if scientists world events of the twentieth century. In the
were building the ladder as they were climbing it. immediate aftermath of World War II (1939−45),
the international community established the United
Before diving into more specific details of the Nations (UN) in 1946. The Charter of the UN is
progress of climate science from the mid-twentieth considered an international treaty, and preventing the
century on, we will first consider more broadly use of force in international relations is a chief aim
how scientific communities organize themselves. of the organization. The UN can also act on an array
On a broad level, scientists specialize their training of issues and has been a facilitator of international
and research according to fields such as biology, cooperation for studying and responding to climate
astronomy, or physics. These fields, however, are change.120
themselves created by scientists as the result of efforts
to organize and systematize knowledge of nature. In the 1950s, the Cold War (1946−91)121 became
Additionally, organizations such as universities or entrenched as a defining feature of geopolitics. The
research institutes specialize in various fields and United States and the Soviet Union (USSR) emerged
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The Keeling Curve with a reconstruction of CO2 concentrations over the past 800,000 years.
Scripps Institute of Oceanography
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Space exploration propelled the reorganization of
scientific communities in the Soviet Union and the
United States, as well as many other nations. New
institutions, including the National Aeronautics and
Space Administration (NASA), founded in 1958,
became important hubs for scientific research. Also,
scientists across disciplinary fields collaborated in new
ways, giving rise to new fields, including Earth System
Science (ESS). A defining characteristic of ESS is
that it brings the subjects of different fields—geology,
biology, and meteorology, for instance—into a single
view of Earth and Earth’s relationship to other celestial
bodies, including the Sun. It was in these scientific,
geopolitical, and cultural contexts that scientists
NASA, founded in 1958, became an important hub for
seriously began to study the effect of greenhouse gas
scientific research. emissions on the Earth’s climate.
Research Programs
from World War II as competing global powers. One Besides the local institutions, such as a university or
of the fronts on which the two sides competed was NASA, where a scientist might work on a daily basis,
science. The Space Race was a driving force behind scientists working on similar subjects voluntarily
the scientific battle. In 1957, the Soviet Union launched organized themselves into more nebulous groups
the first artificial Earth satellite, known as Sputnik, comprised of scientists from all over the world.
into orbit. The United States countered with its own Typically, these groups meet from time to time at
space program that successfully landed humans on the conferences, where scientists, academics, and members
moon in 1969. of other interested groups, such as government officials,
discuss recent advances in research and plan future
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2012- CMIPS
Subseasonal-to- 2013
Seasonal
2012- Prediction Project
Coordinated (S2S) 2019
Regional Climate WCRP
Downscaling Strategic
Experiment Plan
(CORDEX) 1995-
Climate and
1994- Ocean Variability, CMIP6
Climate and Predictability and
Change (CLIVAR) 2020 2020?
1992- Cryosphere
Stratosphere- (CliC)* WCRP
troposphere CMIP1 Implementation
Processes And 1996
their Role in
Plan
Climate (SPARC) CMIP2
1997
1990-
Global Energy
CMIP3 and Water
2010 Exchanges
(GEWEX)
1980
1990-2002 WCRP
World Ocean Established
Circulation
Experiment
(WOCE)
Major WCRP Projects
1985-1994
Tropical Ocean
and Global
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Atmosphere Release dates of Coupled
(TOGA) Model Intercomparison
Project (CMIP) phases**
* CliC was formerly the Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS)
** There was no CMIP4
Graphic depicting the major projects of the World Climate Research Programme.
research goals. The World Climate Research Programme
Occasionally, when scientists and other interested (WCRP)
parties identify a topic that they think will be important The 1950s was a foundational decade for human
to study, they formalize a plan for carrying out that understanding of the Earth’s climate and anthropogenic
study and create a research program. Participants in climate change. The International Council for Science
a research program agree to contribute their time and (ICSU, after its former name: International Council of
resources from various institutions to accomplish a Scientific Unions), founded in 1931, was one garden
collaborative research agenda. Two very consequential from which knowledge of the climate blossomed.
research programs in the study of contemporary climate In 1952, the American physicist and engineer Lloyd
change are the World Climate Research Programme Berkner (1905−67) suggested that ICSU embark
(WCRP), established in 1979, and the International on a systematic and comprehensive study of global
Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), geophysical activities over a set period.123
established in 1987. The story of how these two research The ICSU took up Berkner’s suggestion in what
programs came into existence and what they discovered became the International GeoPhysical Year (IGY).
about the global climate offers a good overview of how The “year” ran from July 1957 to December 1958, a
humans came to recognize the climate crisis.122 period of time that was selected to correspond with a
high point in the eleven-year cycle of sunspot activity.
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The IGY combined scientists from a dizzying array of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP),
fields and nations to study a vast number of subjects, scientists recognized a need for an organization that
including a variety of forms of solar energy, the upper could do even more than GARP. In 1979, the World
atmosphere, meteorology, oceanography, gravity, and Climate Research Programme (WCRP) succeeded
geomagnetism, among many others. The IGY was GARP as the new center for the study of climate
foundational for the launch of NASA and the United change.128 Throughout the 1980s, the WCRP led
States space program. It also provided the support research that greatly increased knowledge of how the
for what would become a pivotal observation in the oceans and atmosphere interact to create weather.129
development of our understanding of climate change. WCRP also significantly raised awareness of climate
change outside the scientific community.
As part of the research conducted for the IGY, Charles
David Keeling (1928−2005) initiated a systematic The International Geosphere-Biosphere
measurement of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Programme (IGBP)
He conducted his research from Hawaii at a base on In the 1980s, as the WCRP led the scholarly community
Mauna Loa..124 At this time, scholars were beginning in studying meteorology and climate change, scientists
to understand that rising levels of carbon dioxide in the once again evaluated whether or not their current
atmosphere could cause climate change in the form of organizations and methods of study could adequately
global warming. In fact, in 1959 Swedish meteorologist answer emerging research questions. Bert Bolin and
Bert Bolin (1925−2007) traveled to Washington, other scientists argued for the necessity of a new
D.C., to alert the National Academy of Sciences scientific program that studied global change more
that increasing CO2 levels throughout the rest of the broadly in order to contextualize climate change and its
century could have serious consequences.125 In 1961, causes. This push led to the creation of the International
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Keeling released the data of his CO2 measurements, Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) in 1987.130
documenting that carbon dioxide levels were indeed As its name suggests, the IGBP studied climate change
rising. A graph showing the ever-increasing levels of within an Earth System Science framework and
CO2 in the atmosphere since Keeling’s initial records added breadth and detail to our scientific knowledge
has become known as the “Keeling Curve” and is about the complexities of the interactions between
an iconic image that distils the causes of the current the Earth’s subsystems and how they are impacted by
climate crisis.126 global changes. The IGBP did not supplant the WCRP;
The emerging data about CO2 concentrations in the rather, the two programs complemented each other and
atmosphere combined with an awareness of carbon coordinated their scientific investigations of climate
dioxide’s potential for warming global temperatures from the broader perspective of the Earth System.
sparked concern among scientists and, naturally,
Raising Awareness of Climate Change
generated a research interest in the subject. Bert Bolin
While it may be a cliché to say that the ivory towers
was a leader in consolidating researchers who were
of academia are inaccessible to the general public, the
interested in this topic. As a result, new communities
results of scientific research can often seem esoteric.
of scientists and formal organizations dedicated to
The disconnect—between the knowledge of experts
the study of climate began to emerge. In 1964, Bolin
and the knowledge of the average person who has
became the first chair of the ICSU’s new committee
not devoted their lives to studying a certain scientific
on atmospheric sciences.127 Three years later, in 1967,
topic—means that even if a select group of scientists
another collaboration and consolidation occurred.
conclusively discovers something about the world, the
The ICSU and the World Meteorological Association
general public will likely be unaware of what they have
(WMO), an agency of the United Nations (UN) created
discovered. In order for the public or general population
in 1950, jointly founded the Global Atmospheric
to learn about what a community of scientists has
Research Program (GARP). GARP was at the center of
learned, that knowledge needs to be transferred to wider
advances in knowledge of the weather and climate in
audiences in a way that they can comprehend it.
the 1970s and 1980s.
In the 1980s, scientists became more convinced that
In 1978, at an International Workshop on Climate
the climate was warming, that the warming was caused
Issues hosted in Austria by the ICSU, the WMO, and
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by human practices, and that it could have significant
impacts on the planet. Logically, they concluded that
this information was important for the public and
government leaders to know. As a result, scientists set
about raising awareness of climate change.
Early Public Warnings
In 1985, the ICSU, WMO, and UNEP organized a
major conference in Villach, Austria, around the topic
“Assessment of the Role of Carbon Dioxide and of Other
Greenhouse Gases in Climate Variations and Associated
Impacts.”131 The participants in the conference agreed
that greenhouse gas emissions could raise global
temperatures and that the consequences could be
serious. An ICSU committee, the Scientific Committee
on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE), issued a
report following the conference titled “The greenhouse
effect, climatic change and ecosystems.” The report
warned of the possibility of “substantial warming” as a
result of CO2 emissions that “were attributable to human
activities.”132 It also recommended policy actions that
could stem climate change caused by human actions. In
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order to create an avenue for sustained communication
of scientific knowledge to policy makers and the public,
scientists formed the Advisory Group on Greenhouse
Gases (AGGG).
Bert Bolin, the first chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on
In 1988, the WMO contributed to another major
Climate Change (IPCC).
conference, this time hosted in Toronto, Canada,
entitled, “The Changing Atmosphere: Implications
of scientists, including Paul J. Crutzen and Bert
for Global Security.”133 The conference marked
Bolin—who served as the panel’s first chair from 1988
another very public moment when scientists made the
to 1998—were instrumental in the establishment of
claim that climate change should be taken seriously
the organization. As envisioned by Bolin, the IPCC
by policymakers across the globe. In the same year,
was established as a formal institution dedicated to
NASA scientist James E. Hansen testified before
coordinating between scientists who recognized the
the United States Senate that the human-induced
risk of climate change and international policymakers
greenhouse effect, not natural fluctuations, was
who would be vital to a global, intergovernmental
the cause of climate change.134 By the late 1980s,
response that could mitigate the dangers posed by
knowledge of the risks of climate change was not
climate change. Bolin also anticipated the need to
only shared among a diverse body of scientists from
provide a bulwark for scientific knowledge against
numerous different fields, but word about climate
those who would attack it. Accordingly, the IPCC was
change was also getting out to the public and to
also created as a separate entity from the WCRP and
government officials.
the IGBP and was designed to serve as a body that
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate independently assesses the science produced out of
those programs.135 To this day, the IPCC remains the
Change (IPCC)
most authoritative source of information about the
One of the most consequential developments from
science of climate change.
the late 1980s regarding the spread of climate change
science was the creation of the Intergovernmental By around 1990, scientists had already known for
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. A group decades that rising levels of carbon dioxide and other
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greenhouse gases in the atmosphere were heating the think tank in Washington, D.C., called the George C.
Earth, and they had begun to raise awareness among Marshall Institute. The Marshall Institute was a very
the public. But in the 1990s, some powerful people different type of institution from the Scripps Institute
reacted to the growing knowledge of global warming of Oceanography. Although scientists worked at both
in a way that has significantly complicated humanity’s places, the Marshall Institute had a political agenda to
response to the climate crisis ever since. achieve: namely, to defend certain Cold War policies—
such as the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI)—of
OPPOSITION TO CLIMATE ACTION then United States President Ronald Reagan against
The scientific evidence for anthropogenic climate critiques from the scientific community. When the
change is overwhelming. However, many individuals Berlin Wall came down in 1989, signaling the end of
and even many politicians, particularly in the the Cold War, the Marshall Institute did not stop its
United States, maintain that climate change is not practice of using scientists to attack other scientists; it
real. How did the trajectory of increasingly detailed turned its attention to a new target: climate science.137
scientific knowledge about climate change from the
1950s through the 1980s result in widespread public In 1989, President Reagan’s former Vice President
skepticism of climate science by the turn of the twenty- and successor, President George H. W. Bush, was
first century? In 2010, historians of science Naomi considering taking action to mitigate climate change.
Oreskes and Erik M. Conway published a bestselling Nierenberg and his colleagues at the Marshall
book titled Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Institute used their ties to the president and the Bush
Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco administration to present an unpublished paper about
Smoke to Global Warming that helps explain why so climate change that did not have the support of the
many Americans do not believe in climate science.136 broader scientific community. The paper argued that
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In the book, Oreskes and Conway carefully retrace, variability in solar energy, not greenhouse gases, was
and amply document, an episode in the early 1990s in causing warming. The argument was not scientifically
which a small group of strategically placed individuals sound, and the IPCC published a report the next year
were able to halt action combating climate change. The saying as much.
book helps illustrate the mechanisms through which In retrospect, it may seem that in a dispute about
people have effectively contested credible scientific a scientific finding between a retired scientist who
knowledge and presented alternative information to the now works for a politically motivated think-tank
public instead. (Nierenberg and the Marshall Institute) and the most
Oreskes and Conway show that in addition to scientific authoritative body of experts on that topic from around
knowledge being produced within the types of the world (the IPCC), the body of scientists should win
organizations and working groups outlined in this the argument. And the IPCC and its climate scientists
section of the guide, the scientific community as a did win the dispute—at least among scientists
whole exists within a larger cultural setting. Some of themselves. But within the Bush administration and
the most influential people that make up this larger among the broader United States public, the argument
cultural setting include those advocating for the was a draw, at best.
interests of businesses or industries, government or Prominent members of the Bush administration
political actors, and members of the news media. All enthusiastically adopted the scientifically dubious
three sectors played a role in creating a disconnect argument of the Marshall Institute paper, and the
between the reality of climate science and what many Marshall Institute was able to leverage its support from
Americans choose to believe about climate change. the U.S. government and manipulate news coverage
of the dispute in newspapers, including the Wall Street
Nierenberg and the Marshall Institute Journal. As a result of such efforts, in the 1990s the
In 1984, William Nierenberg retired as the Director inaccurate idea that a significant number of scientists
of the Scripps Institute of Oceanography—a very disagreed about the fundamental facts of climate change
well-respected scientific institution at the forefront became firmly entrenched in the public’s perception.138
of the study of climate. Upon retirement, Nierenberg With the public doubting that scientists agreed on the
joined the Board of Directors of a recently founded climate, politicians in the United States retreated from
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taking action to stop climate change. In the 1990s,
influential narratives that were not produced out of the
scientific community came to dominate United States
politicians’ rationale for not acting on climate.
U.S. Opposition to the Kyoto Protocol
A revealing marker of the attitude among those
politicians at that time was the U.S. government’s
response to the Kyoto Protocol, an international treaty
adopted in 1997 in which nations committed to reducing
greenhouse gas emissions. The Marshall Institute had
close relations with the presidential administrations
of two Republican Presidents, Ronald Reagan and
George H. W. Bush, but opposition to formally agreeing
to the Kyoto Protocol was bipartisan—that is, both
Chinese students promote the Kyoto Protocol in Beijing on
Republicans and Democrats opposed it. On July 25, Feb. 16, 2005, the day the agreement went into effect.
1997, by a vote of 95−0, the United States Senate agreed Source: China Newsphoto / via REUTERS
to the following resolution stating:
[The U.S. Senate] declares that the United President Gore ran on a campaign that pledged to
States should not be a signatory to any be more proactive about combating climate change.
protocol to, or other agreement regarding, A New York Times article from November 3, 2000,
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the United Nations Framework Convention published four days before the election, counted
on Climate Change of 1992, at negotiations Gore’s support for the Kyoto Protocol and Bush’s
in Kyoto in December 1997 or thereafter opposition to it as the leading issue that distinguished
which would: (1) mandate new commitments the candidates on the environment.141 In a very close
to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions race, Gore received more popular votes than Bush,
for the Annex 1 Parties, unless the protocol but lost the election after a prolonged legal battle
or other agreement also mandates new regarding vote counts in the state of Florida that was
specific scheduled commitments to limit settled in the United States Supreme Court. The new
or reduce greenhouse gas emissions for Bush administration reaffirmed the United States’
Developing Country Parties within the same rejection of the Kyoto Protocol and pursued a policy
compliance period; or (2) result in serious of expanding global oil production in cooperation with
harm to the U.S. economy.139 the oil industry.142 In many ways, the developments
of the 1990s still reverberate today in terms of how
The language of the resolution contains two ideas humans are responding to the climate crisis.
that influenced United States public policy regarding
climate change. The first is that other countries— Business and Industry
including those with less wealth than the United While proponents of climate action argue that
States—need to commit to action before the United mitigating greenhouse gas emissions can produce
States will commit. And the second is that taking new jobs and industries, others are concerned that
action to slow climate change will hurt the U.S. climate action is bad for the economy. Whether or not
economy. Then President Bill Clinton directed the the broader economy would suffer, the oil industry
United States to sign the treaty in 1998 as a gesture of has viewed a move away from fossil fuels as a threat
support, but with the understanding that it would not for decades. In the 1970s and 1980s, Exxon Mobil
be ratified by the U.S. Senate, and therefore would not participated in the scientific study of climate change,
be binding for the nation.140 but when governmental regulations of fossil fuels
appeared on the horizon, the company began funding
In the year 2000, President Clinton’s vice president, organizations that opposed business regulations and
Al Gore, ran for president against George W. Bush, promoted skepticism of climate science.143
former President George H. W. Bush’s son. Vice
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The yearly combined profit of largest Western oil companies from 2007 to 2015.
Reuters
The reality of the situation is that just as scientific that they should not be concerned about climate
knowledge of climate change advanced from the 1950s change. One effective approach by British Petroleum
to the 1990s, it has continued to advance from the and a hired marketing company produced the well-
1990s to the 2020s. Climate skeptics and those who known concept of the “carbon footprint.”145 The idea
spread disinformation about climate change do not of individual people reducing their own fossil fuel
statically argue that scientists still have gaps in their emissions, or “carbon footprint,” sounds appealing
knowledge. Promotors of climate skepticism actively to those who care about the climate crisis. The
keep up with new scientific discoveries and the problem, however, is that sufficient global reductions
consequences of climate change and cast doubt on the in greenhouse gas emissions will not be accomplished
latest developments. by concerned individuals cutting back here or there.
The effort requires cooperation at the governmental
The oil industry has deep pockets for funding level and substantial investment in new alternatives
such efforts. The year 2022 was the most profitable to global societies that currently run on fossil fuels.
year ever for the biggest Western oil companies. A Those are the changes that the oil companies oppose
combination of factors, including the Russian invasion for the purpose of self-preservation. By leading
of Ukraine and the subsequent war, added to the record concerned people to focus on themselves and reducing
year. Remarkably, six companies earned a combined their own “carbon footprint,” the oil companies took
$219 billion, from which they paid out $110 billion in attention away from collective action that would
dividends and shares to investors.144 Such enormous pressure governments and companies to make
amounts of money give the oil industry, and those who substantial changes that could make a meaningful
profit from it, the resources and motivation to promote global impact.146
climate skepticism.
The oil industry is not the only sector of the business
The tactics of the oil companies can be very community that has raised obstacles to action against
sophisticated and are not limited to convincing people
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U.S. Chamber Lobbying in 2022
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s stance on policies to combat climate change in 2022.
Source: www.influencemap.org
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climate change. The United States Chamber of of government regulation, including to combat
Commerce is not part of the United States government climate change or otherwise protect the environment.
but is a powerful lobbying group that broadly advocates However, there are diverse opinions about climate
on behalf of the interests of business. The United States change among both Republican and Democratic
Chamber of Commerce finally acknowledged that constituencies. For example, a Pew Research Center
humans contribute to climate change in 2019, the same poll found that younger Republicans (age 18 to 29) hold
year that it formed a climate change task force to explore quite different views than their older GOP counterparts
the relationship between business and climate change.147 on the use of fossil fuels and their impact on climate.
Those steps did not, however, lead to a complete change Moreover, polls have found that while Republicans
in direction on the issue for the U.S. Chamber of generally don't see climate action to be as important as
Commerce. An independent analysis found that in 2022, Democrats do, they nevertheless do generally support
out of thirty-nine climate policies that the Chamber took certain policy efforts to mitigate climate change.150
a stance on, it advocated against climate action twenty-
five times.148 While there is some overlap between the parties in
terms of support for specific policy initiatives, the
Political Parties two parties nonetheless differ substantially in terms
The world of big business and the world of politics are of how highly they prioritize the climate issue relative
closely intertwined. In the very evenly divided politics to other concerns. In a 2023 poll that frames the
of the United States, addressing climate change has question according to the—potentially misguided—
fallen victim to partisan lines that split Americans into binary choice between promoting economic growth or
one of two camps on many issues. The Republican addressing climate change, 80 percent of Democrats
party has branded itself as pro-business and anti- supported addressing climate change while 72 percent
government regulation of business.149 Republicans, or of Republicans supported prioritizing economic
conservatives, are more likely to question scientific growth.151 What is even more striking than political
findings about climate change and maintain the divides on policy priorities, however, is the impact of the
idea that climate action is bad for the economy. political divide on people’s perceptions of the weather
Democrats, conversely, are more generally supportive itself. Another poll from 2023 found that Democrats
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are significantly more likely than Republicans to think
that where they live has been affected by the following
weather-related events: extremely hot days; droughts and
water shortages; severe storms, including hurricanes;
flooding; smoke from wildfires; and wildfires.152
The poll suggests that political views are influencing
people’s very perceptions of the natural world. The
same poll found that 93 percent of Democrats or those
who lean Democrat agree human activity is causing
changes to the world’s climate, while only 55 percent of
Republicans or those who lean Republican do.
Economic concerns are often put forth as the reason
for political opposition to climate action. In 2017,
United States President Donald Trump, who was in
office from 2017 to 2021, stated that the 2015 Paris
Agreement—an international agreement that aimed
to combat climate change—put the U.S. at a “very big
economic disadvantage”153 and withdrew the U.S. from
the agreement. U.S. politicians are not alone when it
comes to resisting climate action. Russian President
Vladimir Putin and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro,
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among others, formed a kind of nationalist coalition
against cooperative climate action.154 President
Bolsonaro oversaw a rapid increase in the deforestation
of the Brazilian rainforest.155 It appears possible that
The divide between Democrats and Republicans on support for or opposition to taking action on climate
climate policy. change is becoming a wedge issue politically in nations
Source: The Marist Poll beyond the United States. Even the political parties
While a majority of adherents to both major U..S. political parties believe human activity is causing climate change, this belief
is far more predominant among Democrats than among Republicans.
Source: The Marist Poll
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The UNFCCC was founded by the United Nations at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Source: The United Nations
that verbally support taking action on climate change even though that was never the case.
often struggle to do so while they are in power, as did
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the Democratic Clinton administration in the 1990s. Today, many news organizations have become aware
Moreover, the gains that those parties do make may be that those journalistic practices were problematic and
at risk of later being undone by politicians and political have attempted to change course, but there are still
parties that oppose participation in global partnerships challenges. A recent study of news broadcasts in the
to slow climate change. United Kingdom found that in 2022 nearly a third of
British broadcasters cast doubt on climate science.157
News Media One spokesman for a news organization defended the
News organizations can help spread scientific decision to air such views by continuing to suggest
knowledge about climate change, but they can that it was simply good journalism to report both sides
also spread misinformation, either intentionally or of controversial issues. Another reality of the news
unwittingly. For decades, mainstream news outlets that landscape today, however, is that many outlets openly
did not intentionally advocate for climate skepticism endorse one political viewpoint or another. The cable
inadvertently reinforced the messaging that there news channel, Fox News, for instance, reports from a
was not a scientific consensus about the causes of conservative or Republican-leaning perspective and
climate change. Although since at least the 1980s an reaches a wide audience. In the summer of 2023, as
overwhelming majority of scientists with relevant smoke from massive Canadian forest fires poured into
expertise have shared the opinion that human actions the United States, Fox News host Laura Ingraham gave
are contributing to climate change, as dissenting voices airtime to known supporters of the oil industry who
arose in the 1990s, news outlets reported both sides denied scientific consensus on the dangers of smoke.158
of the debate almost equally—even though that equal This is one of myriad examples of how business,
representation did not accurately reflect the scientific politics, and news media are still interacting in many
community.156 The reason for this coverage was well of the same ways they have since the 1990s to offer the
intentioned. Reputable journalists aim for unbiased public a view of the world that denies climate science.
coverage. Nevertheless, the repeated message that
came across was that some scientists think one thing, MITIGATING THE CLIMATE CRISIS
and others think the opposite, and since both sides While some people have denied the science of
received roughly equal airtime, it gave the impression climate change, many others have recognized that
that an equal number of scientists were on both sides the environment is changing and that humans
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need to adapt in order to protect ourselves and our
planet. People have worked toward climate solutions
from almost every part of human societies. Every
contribution makes a meaningful difference, and
everyone’s participation is important. When it comes
to slowing and stopping global warming caused by
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere,
however, there are certain actions that need to happen
on a global scale that will likely require substantial
involvement from governments around the world and
powerful industries and businesses.
Political (In)Action
Depending on one’s perspective, the work of
governments on climate change can be credibly
described as action or inaction. On the one hand,
many nations have worked collaboratively and within Global CO2 emissions rose to new levels in 2022.
their own countries to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Source: International Energy Agency
This section will briefly describe the most significant
multinational climate agreements enacted so far. On provisions for countries that did not meet the targeted
the other hand, if the standard for action is taking the emission reductions within their own borders to help
necessary steps to limit the most dangerous possibilities reduce emissions internationally. Importantly, the
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for future global warming, then one must admit that Kyoto Protocol included procedures for monitoring
global governments are not meeting that target. greenhouse gas emissions, including registry systems
to track and record emissions, reporting of annual
The United Nations Framework Convention emission inventories, and a compliance system to help
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) parties meet their commitments.160
In 1992, at the United Nations Conference on
Environment and Development hosted in Rio de The Paris Agreement
Janeiro, Brazil, the UN founded the United Nations In 2015, the Paris Agreement (also known as the Paris
Framework Convention on Climate Change Accords or Paris Climate Accords) was adopted by
(UNFCCC), also known as UN Climate Change. The 196 parties. The Paris Agreement, following scientific
founding of the UNFCCC marked a major milestone guidelines from the IPCC, sets the goal of limiting the
in the coordination between scientific organizations increase in global average temperatures to well below
and governmental organizations on the issue of 2°C above pre-industrial levels. More recently, global
climate change. While scientists had been organizing leaders have emphasized the importance of limiting the
themselves for many years in order to create increase to 1.5°C by the end of the century. In order to
institutions to study climate change, the UNFCCC accomplish that outcome, the following emission goals
became an organizational center of government action are included: a peak in greenhouse gas emissions before
to address climate change. The UNFCCC was a 2025 and a 43 percent decline by 2030.161
catalyst for the Kyoto Protocol.159
As of 2022, however, global carbon dioxide emissions
The Kyoto Protocol were still rising, indicating that the goal of hitting
The Kyoto Protocol is a binding agreement among a peak in greenhouse gas emissions has yet to be
thirty-seven nations that was adopted in 1997 and put achieved as the window before 2025 grows very small.
into effect starting in 2005. The participating nations As far as the longer-term goals are concerned, a United
had individual targets for emission reductions that Nations report from late 2022 indicated that the current
taken together as a whole came out to a 5 percent pace of emission reductions is not even close to putting
emission reduction over the years 2008 to 2012, the world on track to meet the 1.5°C target by the end
compared to 1990 levels. The agreement included of the century.162
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U.S. Congressional Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez U.S. President Joseph R. Biden signs the Inflation Reduction
and other lawmakers campaign for the Green New Deal Act in 2022.
Legislation on February 7, 2019. Source: AP News
Source: New York Times
new technologies and support investments in green
The Green New Deal and the Inflation industries.164
Reduction Act (IRA)
Within the United States during the Trump
New Technology and Industry
While experts warn that misplaced trust in technological
administration, Democratic lawmakers advanced
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solutions that have yet to be invented should not be an
discussions on how the U.S. government might take
excuse for continued fossil fuel use with the hopes that
substantial action on climate change. A Congressional
the damage will be undone later, developments in new
Representative from New York, Alexandria Ocasio-
technology and industry are already slowing greenhouse
Cortez, and Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts,
gas emissions and are fittingly generating a lot of
championed legislation known as the Green New
excitement.
Deal. The Green New Deal could not become law
without the support of the president at that time, but Geoengineering
it did cast a vision for robust investment in clean Scientists argue for the necessity of cutting carbon
energy and other forms of new infrastructure that emissions, but other actions could also help diminish
burn fewer fossil fuels. The name “The Green New the causes of global warming. Geoengineering
Deal” references the major public works investment in involves manipulating the Earth’s environment in ways
the 1930s known as the New Deal, which is credited that counteract the current trends of climate change.
with revitalizing the U.S. economy during the Great One of the leading directions in geoengineering
Depression. A key idea of the Green New Deal is that is carbon sequestration or carbon capture, which
financial investment in mitigating climate change involves capturing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
could actually boost new and existing industries and and storing it.165 Capturing the carbon and locating safe
the economy as a whole.163 places to store it are two challenges involved in this
While the branding of the Green New Deal was not effort. Another form of geoengineering includes solar
adopted by President Joe Biden, with Democratic radiation management. This approach would involve
majorities in Congress he signed the Inflation producing sources that act similarly to clouds and that
Reduction Act (IRA) into law on August 16, 2022. could reflect solar energy away from the surface of the
Although its name does not signal it, the IRA provided Earth or ocean surfaces. Scientists warn that people
the largest source of government funding for climate- should use caution when endeavoring to manipulate
related issues in U.S. history. The IRA provides the environment on a large scale, but continued
around $369 billion in climate funding that is being investment in geoengineering could produce new ways
directed to energy, transportation, and agriculture, to counteract climate change.166
among other areas. This spending aims to help develop
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Geoengineering involves manipulating the Earth’s environment in ways that counteract the current trends of climate change.
Source: University of Leeds
New Sources of Energy stall efforts at change and protect the status quo. Such
If humanity is going to reduce its greenhouse gas arguments might emphasize things like the coal energy
emissions and burning of fossil fuels, we will need plants that are used to power an electric vehicle, the
to either stop those practices that use fossil fuels or environmental impacts of mining the resources used
find ways to continue them albeit without fossil fuels. to create batteries, or the risks wind turbines pose to
Since the second of these options is more appealing wildlife. When one comes across an argument of this
to most individuals and governments, alternative kind, it is important to carefully scrutinize the source
sources of energy that reduce carbon emissions offer of the argument and consider what motivations might
a promising path forward. Hydrogen, solar power, be behind it. At the same time, it is true that addressing
wind power, and biofuels are directions that people climate change is complex and will inevitably involve
are actively exploring or already using as sources of choosing between competing interests. Focusing
power. Wind and solar generated a record amount of exclusively on keeping global warming to a certain
clean energy in 2022, producing 12 percent of global level is only part of the broader picture. The next
energy.167 Additionally, the use of electric energy and section examines the people who remind us that it does
developments in batteries for storing electric energy not just matter if we address the climate crisis. How we
may be on the cusp of transforming humans’ use of address it matters, too.
fossil fuels for powering the machines that we operate.
CLIMATE ACTIVISM
As scientists and business industries work together There has been a third response to the ongoing climate
to create new sources of energy, it is important to crisis that deserves separate consideration. Some people
keep in mind that scientists understand that new have denied the crisis, or aspects of our scientific
inventions might have unintended consequences knowledge about it. Some have tried to take action to
and will need to be refined over time. When hiccups mitigate the crisis. Others have thought about what the
occur, climate skeptics sometimes argue that climate climate crisis might mean for humanity and nature—
solutions are worse than climate problems in order to what the climate crisis’ moral significance is—and they
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have spoken out about these issues. Their perspective on to pollute water and local ecosystems in under-
climate change and willingness to raise their voices on resourced communities.168 Advocates for climate
behalf of themselves and others is the third response to justice acknowledge that climate change is impacting
the climate crisis that we will consider here. poor populations around the globe more severely than
wealthy populations and maintain that this reality does
The people who have done these things, and the not give a free pass for climate action that also comes
communities that have formed around them, are at the expense of vulnerable communities. Raising
commonly labeled climate activists. Their actions and these issues, as in the Louisiana example, complicates
their messages are sometimes so widely celebrated our view of the situation and complicates the question
that it seems everyone in the world has taken notice. of what actions we should be taking to limit climate
Other times, their actions have been criticized or change.
ignored. Moreover, they can seemingly be as critical
of the people who are doing something about climate Rather than viewing a concern for justice as a roadblock
change as those who are doing nothing, depending on to quick and effective action against climate change,
what is being done. Their voices have helped people advocates for climate justice maintain a hopeful
to understand that climate change interacts with outlook. They argue that a shared concern for justice
human societies in a variety of ways, and they have actually opens a path to global climate solutions that
emphasized the view that in addition to slowing the work, unlike the measures that have been taken by
pace of climate change, our actions should be just and governments so far, which promise more than they
respectful of the dignity of humans everywhere. deliver. Philosopher Olúfẹ́mi O. Táíwò argues that
climate justice should entail an awareness of the
Speaking Out for “Climate Justice” historical legacies that have created today’s global
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Sometimes it may seem that the world can be divided wealth and power disparities. He warned that the Green
into two groups: those who support climate action and New Deal, if it were enacted, could problematically
those who oppose it. Climate activists can be seen as bolster what he calls “climate colonialism”—practices
people who very enthusiastically want to do something of extracting resources or producing clean energy
about climate and try to get as many people as possible in less-powerful countries and utilizing the benefits
to cross over to their side as well. This picture might in wealthier nations.169 In essence, the same types of
describe some climate activists very accurately, but for practices from the past—remember the extraction of
many climate activists it is an incomplete picture. oil by Western nations from the Middle East in the
twentieth century—could be reduplicated as part of the
Often, climate activists are not merely trying to get
new global infrastructure for combating climate change,
people to act on climate change; they are engaged in
and inequalities could be exacerbated through the very
the work of considering what actions we should take
process of taking climate action.
in the first place. And their concern is not merely to
stop climate change, but more broadly to promote Arguably, if the primary concern is for justice and
justice across the globe as humanity potentially faces global equality, climate solutions could come much
a monumental disruption to our societies as a result more easily. Some climate activists note that if wealthy
of climate change. These individuals point out that Western countries were to view the strength they hold
not all actions that might slow climate change are in wealth and power as something they achieved as a
just. To take one example, funding for climate action result of the natural resources of the globe, they might
provided through the IRA created the opportunity to be more willing to use that money to give back to
build carbon capture infrastructure in Louisiana, and countries who are vulnerable to climate change, but do
the state is poised to move forward with this endeavor not have as many financial resources for transitioning
that could play a role in lowering greenhouse gas to new forms of energy and infrastructure. Climate
concentrations in the atmosphere. activists such as Táíwò invite citizens to imagine a
world where different priorities guide the actions of the
However, local climate activists are raising the issue
world’s most powerful governments, many of which
of where the captured carbon is going to be stored
are democracies.
underground and if there are adequate safeguards
in place to ensure that stored carbon is not going In the United States, the Biden administration has
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Map of the Standing Rock protests and the proposed Dakota Access oil pipeline.
Source: NPR
attempted to incorporate a concern for justice into on any one person to solve the world’s problems,
policy with the Justice40 Initiative. This initiative climate activists who focus on climate justice are more
set the goal that 40 percent of overall benefits likely to encourage anyone who is concerned to find a
from Federal investment in certain categories flow community—or even one other person—who feels the
to underserved communities. The categories of same way and work together to spread the word about
investment to which the initiative applies are climate climate change. Some of the most inspiring, powerful,
change, clean energy and energy efficiency, clean and controversial climate activist movements, which
transit, affordable and sustainable housing, training are discussed below, achieved recognition and success
and workforce development, remediation and reduction precisely because they galvanized cooperation between
of legacy pollution,170 and the development of critical people.
clean water and wastewater infrastructure.171
Standing Rock and Indigenous Voices
While climate activists try to inspire the public to think In 2016 and 2017, protests led by the Standing Rock
creatively about justice on massive, global scales, they Sioux Tribe in North Dakota halted construction
can also provide a sense of community and belonging of the Dakota Access Pipeline, a portion of the
on a personal level and give concerned citizens Keystone Pipeline System that transports oil from
opportunities to make a difference in their own lives. Alberta, Canada, to the shores of the Gulf of Mexico
Climate scientist Katherine Hayhoe has contributed to in the U.S. state of Texas. Those supporting the
IPCC reports, but also works on communicating the pipeline contended that it would create new jobs and
science of climate change in a way that resonates with contribute significantly to the U.S. economy. Others
her own faith community: Evangelical Christians.172 In opposed the pipeline, as they were concerned about
a TED Talk that has been viewed over 4 million times, its environmental impact and its impact on the local
Hayhoe offers a very simple way to fight climate change, community. For several months, protesters camped
just talk about it.173 Rather than putting the pressure near the construction site and waged a legal battle
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Lauren Howland (Jicarilla Apache) protests the Dakota Alessandra Korap Munduruku.
Access Pipeline and is met by law enforcement. Source: The Goldman Environmental Prize
Source: PBS NewsHour
series of arguments in numerous courts. But on a more
to stop the proposed construction. The issues at immediate level, the protests reminded some of many
stake were multifaceted and included the matter of historical events from U.S. history when the government
sovereignty. At the local level, the route of the pipeline wanted to use land for purposes that Native Americans
passed under the Missouri River at a location that was oppose and used violence and the threat of violence to
vital for protecting the drinking water of the Standing achieve their aims. In this case, law enforcement made
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Rock Sioux Reservation. Intertwined with the local hundreds of arrests over the course of the protests and
environmental and ecological impacts were the eventually used force to end the protests when newly
cultural and religious sites damaged by construction elected President Donald Trump ordered that the
and threatened by future oil leaks.174 Attention to the construction continue in early 2017.
local threats to people’s physical and spiritual health
Similar struggles to that which took place at Standing
became a way for people to consider the human impact
Rock are happening around the globe. In Brazil,
of global issues.
Alessandra Korap Munduruku, a member of the
The Standing Rock protests seemed to meet at the Munduruku Indigenous group of Sawré Muybu, took
intersection of many global justice concerns. The action when her home was threatened by one of the
protesters targeted a pipeline that was transporting fossil world’s largest mining companies. The British company
fuels from underground in Canada to Texas, where it Anglo American planned to expand mining operations
would be prepared for use that would release greenhouse in Munduruku regions of the Amazon rainforest, where
gases out of the ground and into the atmosphere. In illegal mining was already polluting the water. During
addition to the environmental harm of that process, the the Brazilian presidency of Jair Bolsonaro, when rates
infrastructure for transporting the oil was damaging of deforestation in Brazilian rainforests were rising,
local ecosystems and sites of cultural significance across Alessandra Korap Munduruku organized a coalition of
Canada and the U.S. The protesters raised the question Indigenous communities and publicly demanded that
of who should be allowed to have the final say over what Anglo American withdraw from their land.
humanity does to the Earth’s land. Law enforcement
After initially denying that they had plans to mine
and government representatives who favored shutting
in the area, Anglo American decided to withdraw its
down the protests contended that the protesters were
twenty-seven applications to mine inside Indigenous
trespassing on, and in some cases vandalizing, private
territories, formally notifying the Brazilian
property and argued that public roadways were not
government of its decision in May 2021. Alessandra
appropriate locations for acts of civil disobedience.175
Korap Munduruku’s victory has helped protect
On one level, the battle was a legal one, in which various more than 400,000 acres of rainforest located in
advocates for and against the pipeline waged a long Sawré Muybu Indigenous Territory.176 Indigenous
leaders from around the world offer a vision for the
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Greta Thunberg, shown participating in a school strike for
climate. Ugandan climate activist Vanessa Nakate.
Source: PBS Source: New York Times
relationship between nature and human societies in with unwavering clarity before increasingly large and
which local needs take priority over global profits.177 powerful bodies of policymakers at various European
governments and international organizations,
Fridays for Future and Youth Voices including the European Union and the United
The global youth has also raised its voice on climate, Nations. Thunberg’s message was clear: politicians
capturing the attention of the world. The Fridays for should listen to scientists and act accordingly. She
Future movement, which claims 14 million participants presented governmental inaction on climate change
in 7,500 cities across all the continents, began as inexcusable and highlighted the irony of children
ingloriously in 2018.178 Greta Thunberg of Sweden, taking action when adults would not. At a speech in
then just fifteen years old, sat for weeks in front of Vienna in 2019, she characteristically stated, “For
the Swedish Parliament to protest her government’s too long the people in power have gotten away with
inaction on climate instead of attending school. Her basically not doing anything to stop climate and
“school strike” called attention to the fact that climate ecological breakdown. They have gotten away with
change was threatening her generation’s future—the stealing our future and selling it for profit. But we
same future which is often given as the rationale for the young people are waking up. And we promise we will
importance of going to school. Thunberg’s actions soon not let you get away with it anymore.”179
inspired other young people to do the same and then
The Fridays for Future movement spread organically
quickly garnered the attention of the press.
as young people around the world were inspired to
When Thunberg was given a larger platform, she spoke organize action in their own communities. These
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young activists inject the movement with their views on the climate while continuing to make
own personalities and local cultural contexts. For enormous profits.
instance, Luisa Neubauer, a young German climate Big business, politicians, and news media have
6
activist, preached a sermon in Berlin’s majestic Berlin occasionally combined to advance messaging
Cathedral. In the sermon, she drew on the often that casts doubt on scientific views about the
neglected teaching of Jesus Christ admonishing that climate.
one should not store up treasures on Earth, casting a
moral vision for choosing to prioritize global justice 6 Today in the United States, many people’s
over the protection of accumulated wealth in a few views about climate change and climate
powerful nations.180 Ugandan climate activist Vanessa science align with their identification as a
Nakate combines local action in her home country Democrat or a Republican.
with an international message that Africans are not 6 Governments around the globe have set targets
only impacted by climate change, but are also engaged for actions that would limit global warming to
in finding climate solutions.181 1.5°C by the end of the twenty-first century, but
they are not on pace to reach those goals.
SECTION IV SUMMARY 6 Investment in revolutionizing current
6 From the late 1950s through the late 1980s, industries and creating new ones could lead
scientists developed a robust understanding to novel methods of reducing greenhouse
that greenhouse gas emissions were causing gas concentrations in the atmosphere or
global warming and established the World counteracting their impact on the climate.
Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme 6 Climate activists have raised awareness that not
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(IGBP) to study the phenomenon. all actions that combat climate change are just
and that how we fight climate change matters.
6 In the 1980s, climate scientists realized
that government officials needed to know 6 Indigenous communities around the world are
about warming caused by greenhouse gases advocating for environmental practices that
and take action on the matter. To better value local populations over the profits of large
facilitate cooperation between scientists and companies; and those practices also may help
governments, the Intergovernmental Panel on address global climate problems.
Climate Change (IPCC) was formed in 1988. 6 Over the past decade, young people have raised
The oil industry has felt threatened by their voices and spoken with clarity about
6
government action to slow climate change, and the failure of adults in positions of power to
it has funded misinformation about scientific address the climate crisis.
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Conclusion
Those living today have a unique opportunity to we now live in an era in which we as a species are
reflect upon the relationship between humanity and significantly impacting the Earth System, an era often
the Earth’s climate. Never before have humans known referred to as the Anthropocene. Already, people have
about the Earth’s climate history as extensively as we reacted in different ways. Some deny it is happening.
do now. We can see that our climate has always been Others advocate for changing the behaviors that are
changing, but we can also see that the speed at which altering our climate by reducing greenhouse gas
it is currently changing is abnormal in human history. emissions. Still others are thinking broadly about
The last time humans lived through a shift in a climate taking this moment as an opportunity to correct global
epoch, from the Pleistocene to the Holocene around inequalities that have developed over the past few
11,700 years ago, the shift was followed by some stark centuries. A basic scientific knowledge of climate
changes in the global human population. The social change and an awareness of the historical relationship
world that humanity lives in today was built during between human societies and climate are important
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and for the environmental conditions of Holocene. resources for considering our priorities for life in the
Anthropocene.
It is difficult to predict how humans will respond as
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Timeline
c. 2.6 million YA
(YA=Years Ago, with Start of the Pleistocene
2000 ce as Present)
c. 300,000 YA Date of oldest known fossil record of Homo sapiens
c. 20,000 YA Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)
c. 12,900–11,700 YA Younger Dryas period
c. 11,700 YA Start of the Holocene
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c. 11,700–8,236 YA Early Holocene Subseries/Subepoch or the Greenlandian Stage/Age
c. 8,236 YA Final collapse of the glacial Laurentide Ice Sheet
c. 8,236–4,250 YA Middle Holocene Subseries/Subepoch or the Northgrippian Stage/Age
c. 5,500 YA/3500 bce Emergence of the Mesopotamian civilization
c. 3200 bce Writing used in Egypt
c. 3200–2600 bce Early Harappan phase of the Indus Civilization
c. 2700–2200 bce Old Kingdom in Egypt
c. 2600–1900 bce Mature Harappan phase of the Indus Civilization
c. 2334–2218 bce Akkadian Empire in Mesopotamia
c. 4,250 YA/2250 bce Severe climate event, possibly resulting in Eurasian megadrought
c. 4,250 YA–present Late Holocene Subseries/Subepoch or the Meghalayan Stage/Age
c. 1900–1000 bce Late Harappan phase of Indus Civilization
c. 1600–1050 bce Shang Dynasty in China
c. 1200–400 bce Olmec rule in Mesoamerica
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c.1046–256 bce Zhou Dynasty in China
c. 900–200 bce Chavín Andean civilization
356–323 bce Lifespan of Alexander the Great
c. 150 bce –250 ce Peak of the Roman Empire
c. 476 ce Collapse of the Western Roman Empire
536 ce A cold year in Europe regarded by some historians as the worst year to be alive
c. 1280–1350 Wolf solar minimum
c. 1300–1850 The Little Ice Age (LIA)
c. 1400s The Inca Empire consolidates control in the Andean region.
c. 1500s European states establish colonies around the globe.
c. 1645–1715 ce Maunder solar minimum
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1714 Invention of the mercury thermometer
c. 1780s Start of the Industrial Revolution
c. 1790–1820 Dalton solar minimum
1812–70 Lifespan of Charles Dickens
1931 Founding of the International Council for Science (ICSU)
c. 1946–91 The Cold War
Start of the Anthropocene according to a proposal by the Anthropocene Working
1950 Group (AWG); start of the “Great Acceleration”; the World Meteorological Association
is founded.
1957–58 International GeoPhysical Year (IGY)
1957 The Soviet Union launches the Sputnik satellite into orbit.
1958 The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is founded.
Bert Bolin alerts the National Academy of Sciences to rising CO2 concentrations in
1959
the atmosphere.
c. 1960s Earth System Science emerges as way to study the natural world.
Charles David Keeling releases measurements of the CO2 concentration in the
1961
atmosphere.
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1962 Rachel Carson publishes Silent Spring.
1967 The Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP) is founded.
The International Council for Science and the United Nations Environment Programme
1978
(UNEP) organize an International Workshop on Climate Issues in Austria.
The World Climate Programme, including the successor to GARP, the World Climate
1979
Research Programme (WCRP), is founded.
A conference titled “Assessment of the Role of Carbon Dioxide and of Other Greenhouse
1985
Gases in Climate Variations and Associated Impacts” is held in Villach, Austria.
The Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases (AGGG) is founded by the International
1986 Council of Scientific Unions, the UNEP, and the World Meteorological Organization
to follow up on the recommendations of the 1985 conference.
1987 The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) is founded.
A conference titled “The Changing Atmosphere: Implications for Global Security:
1988 Founding of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)” is held in Toronto,
Canada.
1989 The fall of the Berlin Wall
The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development is held in Rio
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1992 de Janeiro, Brazil; the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) is established.
The U.S. Senate passes the Byrd-Hagel resolution 95–0, signaling the Senate’s
July 25, 1997 unwillingness to ratify the proposed Kyoto Protocol. The resolution is passed several
months before negotiations on the Protocol conclude on December 11, 1997.
Paul J. Crutzen and Eugene F. Stoermer coin the term “Anthropocene”; the U.S.
2000
presidential election is held between candidates George W. Bush and Al Gore.
The Paris Agreement is adopted by 196 nations, including United States, at the UN
2015
Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, France.
2016–17 The Standing Rock Sioux Tribe protests the construction of the Dakota Access Pipeline.
Greta Thunberg begins school strikes for climate, leading to the creation of Fridays for
2018
Future.
2020 The United States withdraws from the Paris Agreement during the Trump presidency.
The United States rejoins the Paris Agreement during the Biden presidency;
2021 Alessandra Korap Munduruku leads a successful protest to block mining expansion in
part of the Brazilian rainforests.
2022 Hurricane Ian; The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is signed into law by President Biden.
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Glossary
1.5°C – a goal for limiting the amount of global warming Atmosphere – one of the subsystems in the Earth
above the pre-industrial average to 1.5°C by the end System; the layers of gases encircling the Earth
of the century
Biosphere – one of the subsystems in the Earth System;
536 ce – an abnormally cold year in Europe as a result all living organisms in and on the Earth
of volcanic eruptions; historian Michael McCormick
Black gold – a popular term that references oil, its
recently named it the worst year to be alive.
immense value, and the fact that it, like gold, must be
4,250 Years Ago/2250 bce – the starting date of the extracted from the earth
Late Holocene and the date of a severe climate event
Bolin, Bert (1925−2007) – a Swedish meteorologist
that may have included droughts that strained early
who led numerous scientific communities
human civilizations across Eurasia
studying climate and was the first Chair of the
Akkadian Empire – an early Mesopotamian empire
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
that lasted from around 2334 to 2218 bce
“Carbon footprint” – a term that references a person or
Alexander the Great (356−323 bce) – Greek king from organization’s personal contribution to global carbon
Macedonia whose vast conquests created cultural emissions
links throughout the Mediterranean region and east
Carbon sequestration – also known as carbon
as far as the Indus Valley
capture; the act of taking carbon dioxide out of the
Andes Mountains – a long mountain range that atmosphere and storing it
stretches from north to south along the Pacific Rim
Causal mechanism – something that causes something
in South America that was home to early agrarian
else to occur
societies
Climate crisis – a term summarizing the dangerous
Anthropocene – according to the IPCC, “a proposed
impacts of climate change
new geological epoch resulting from significant
human-driven changes to the structure and Climate determinism – a method of telling historical
functioning of the Earth System, including narratives in which climate drives social and
the climate system”182; in March of 2024, the environmental changes over time
International Union of Geological Sciences rejected
a proposal to formally name the Anthropocene as Climate history – an academic field that uses the
a new geological epoch, but noted that the term methods of historians and studies sources produced
will “continue to be used not only by Earth and by human societies to reconstruct past climatic
environmental scientists but also by social scientists, conditions
politicians and economists as well as by the public at Cold War – the global political conflict between the
large” and “will remain an invaluable descriptor of United States and the Soviet Union, and their allied
human impact on the Earth system.”183 nations, from around 1946 to 1991
Archive – traditionally a storehouse of historical Colonialism – a political system in which states or
documents, but now also a figurative way of naming companies establish control over natural resources
something as containing information about the past, and people in distant lands
such as the archives of nature
Crutzen, Paul J. (1933−2021) – a Dutch meteorologist
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who helped found the IPCC in 1988, won the Nobel would involve government investment in building
Prize in Chemistry in 1995, and coined the term infrastructure and incentivizing industries to help
“Anthropocene” in 2000 address the climate crisis
Cryosphere – a part of the hydrosphere subsystem; all Greenhouse gas effect – a term that describes how
the ice in the Earth System higher concentrations of carbon dioxide and
certain other gases in the atmosphere are warming
Early Holocene Subseries/Subepoch or the
temperatures in the lower levels of the atmosphere by
Greenlandian Stage/Age – the first of three stages
trapping heat
of the Holocene that lasted from around 11,700 to
8,236 years ago and was characterized by warmer Historical climatology – also known as
conditions paleoclimatology; this field reconstructs past climates
utilizing methods for studying sources in nature,
Earth System Science (ESS) – a relatively new
such as ice core sampling and dendrochronology.
approach to studying the natural world as a
connected whole with a focus on the interactions History of climate and society (HCS) – a new
between the Earth System’s subsystems: the interdisciplinary field, suggested by environmental
geosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere, and biosphere historian Dagomar Degroot, focused on the history of
the relationship between climate and human societies
Foote, Eunice Newton (1819−1888) – an American
scientist and women’s rights advocate who Holocene – a geological interglacial period that began
recognized in the mid-nineteenth century that around 11,700 years ago, at the end of the last ice age
changing amounts of carbon dioxide in the
Hydrosphere – one of the subsystems in the Earth
atmosphere could impact the climate
System; all the water in, on, and around the Earth in
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Forcings – factors that are external to a climate system various forms
and influence climate change, such as volcanic
Indus Valley – a valley in present-day Pakistan that is
activity, solar variations, and greenhouse gases
home to the Indus River, was the location of some of
Fossil fuels – matter—including coal, oil, and natural the world’s earliest agrarian societies, and marks the
gas—left behind from formerly living organisms eastern extent of Alexander the Great’s conquests
that can be burned to create energy but when burned,
Industrial Revolution – a development starting in the
releases carbon into the atmosphere
late eighteenth century that expanded manufacturing
Fridays for Future – a youth climate activism by using machines
movement that was inspired by Greta Thunberg’s
Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) – a law passed in the
school strikes for climate in 2018 and spread
United States in 2022 during the presidency of Joe
organically across the world
Biden that provides unprecedented government
Geological time scale – a measure of time based on funding for addressing the challenges posed by
the record of rocks in which change is sometimes climate change
measured at the pace of millions or billions of years
Interglacial – a geological period of warmer conditions
Geosphere (Lithosphere) – one of the subsystems in the between ice ages
Earth System; the earth and rock that comprise the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Earth
– a body of the United Nations (UN) that was
“Great Acceleration” – a term coined by environmental formed in 1988 to offer an independent assessment of
historian J. R. McNeill and Peter Engelke that climate science and mediate between scientists and
identifies 1950 as a date when, partly due to a rapid policymakers
growth in the human population, humanity’s impact
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
on the natural world rapidly increased, including a
(IGBP) – established in 1987 to study global change
steep rise in fossil fuel emissions
in the context of Earth System Science
Green New Deal – a policy proposal championed by
Justice40 Initiative – a policy commitment from the
U.S. Congressional Representative Alexandria
Biden administration that aims for 40 percent of
Ocasio-Cortez, Senator Ed Markey, and others that
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overall benefits from Federal investments related Middle Holocene Subseries/Subepoch or the
to climate change and other categories to flow to Northgrippian Stage/Age – the second of three
underserved communities stages of the Holocene that began around 8,236 years
ago and ended 4,250 years ago and saw cooling
Keeling, Charles David (1928−2005) – an
conditions compared to the Early Holocene
American scientist who in 1958 began systematic
record keeping of atmospheric carbon dioxide Milankovitch cycles – patterns of the Earth’s movement
concentrations from the Mauna Loa Observatory in in relation to the Sun that influence the Sun’s impact
Hawaii on climate over time
“Keeling Curve”– a graph that represents atmospheric Modernization – a narrative of the process by which
carbon dioxide concentrations based on the records humanity or a specific group of people move from
originally compiled by Charles David Keeling at the pre-modern conditions to modern conditions
Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii
Munduruku, Alessandra Korap (b. 1985) – a
Kyoto Protocol – a non-binding international agreement, Brazilian environmental activist and member of
which was adopted in 1997 and entered into force in the Munduruku people of the Tapajós River Middle
2005, extending the 1992 United Nations Framework Course who has defended portions of the Brazilian
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) rainforest in various ways
Late Holocene Subseries/Subepoch or the Meghalayan National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Stage/Age – the third of three stages of the Holocene (NASA) – an agency of the United States
that began around 4,250 years ago and continues to government founded in 1958 that is a global leader in
the present space exploration and the study of the Earth System
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Laurentide Ice Sheet – a vast ice sheet that covered Negative feedback – in the context of Earth System
much of North America during ice ages throughout Science, a phenomenon where climate change
the Pleistocene and which advanced most recently causes a natural reaction that acts against the initial
from c. 95,000 to c. 20,000 years ago direction of climate change
Lithosphere – see geosphere Nile Delta – a delta spreading over hundreds of miles
in the region where the Nile River reaches the
Little Ice Age (LIA) – a period from around 1300
Mediterranean Sea that was home to early Egyptian
to 1850 during which cooler temperatures at
agrarian societies
various places and times resulted in cooler global
temperatures on average Paleoclimatology – see historical climatology
Mandate of heaven – an idea originating in ancient Paris Agreement – a 2015 intergovernmental agreement
China that suggests an emperor has a mandate to with the goal of limiting the increase in global
rule, which is evidenced by order in the universe temperatures to well below 2°C above pre-industrial
levels
McNeill, J. R. (b. 1954) – an American scholar and
pioneering environmental historian who popularized Pleistocene – a geological epoch that started around 2.58
the idea of the “Great Acceleration” million years ago and was characterized by cycles of
ice ages and interglacials
Mesoamerica – a region spanning North and Central
America that was home to early agrarian societies, Positive feedback – in the context of Earth System
including the Olmec, and later societies, including Science, a phenomenon where climate change causes
the Maya and the Aztec a natural reaction that amplifies the initial direction
of climate change
Mesopotamia – a region in present-day Iraq that was
home to some of the earliest agrarian societies, Precipitation – water released from clouds, including
including the Akkadian Empire rain, snow, sleet, and hail
Middle Ages – a period in Europe from the collapse of Proxy – something observable in nature that gives an
the western part of the Roman Empire in the fifth indication of past climate conditions, such as tree
century ce until around 1500 ce rings, ice cores, or human-made records
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Scale – the scope of an investigation; it can be large or Thunberg, Greta (b. 2003) – a Swedish climate activist
small, either geographically or chronologically. who started a school strike for climate in 2018 at the
age of fifteen and sparked a global youth climate
Scholarly field – a group of scholars who generally
movement known as Fridays for Future
share an object of study, the type of evidence used to
study the object, and methods used for analyzing that Tipping point – a point of no return when changes in a
evidence climate system become irreversible
Solar minima – periods of decreased sunspot activity Triple planetary crisis – the ongoing and looming
that follow an eleven-year cycle, but can also fall over global risks related to climate change, air pollution,
longer stretches of time, such as occurred during and biodiversity loss
certain phases of the Little Ice Age
United Nations (UN) – an intergovernmental
Space Race – a competition of space exploration and organization founded in 1945 in the wake of World
technology between the United States and the Soviet War II with a continued aim of promoting peace,
Union during the Cold War dignity, equality, and a healthy planet
Standing Rock Sioux Tribe – a nation whose members United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
led a protest that delayed the construction of an oil Change (UNFCCC, also known as UN Climate
pipeline in North America Change) – established in 1992 as a foundation for
intergovernmental action on climate change that led
Stoermer, Eugene F. (1934–2012) – a biologist
to the Kyoto Protocol (1997) and the Paris Agreement
who, along with Paul J. Crutzen, coined the term
(2015)
“Anthropocene”
World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) – a
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Subsystems – a classification within Earth System
program established in 1979 for the study of the
Science consisting of the geosphere, hydrosphere,
Earth System and climate change
atmosphere, and biosphere
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Notes
1 im Lenton, Earth System Science: A Very Short Introduction (Oxford:
T anthropocene/.
Oxford University Press, 2016), 1−6. 15 “ Planetary dashboard shows ‘Great Acceleration’ in
2 NOAA, “What is the carbon cycle?” National Ocean Service website, human activity since 1950,” International Geosphere-
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/carbon-cycle.html#transcript. Biosphere Programme, accessed September 2, 2023,
3 Sam White, “North American Climate History (1500−1800),” in The http://www.igbp.net/news/pressreleases/pressreleases/
Palgrave Handbook of Climate History, ed. Sam White, Christian planetarydashboardshowsgreataccelerationinhumanactivitysince1950.
Pfister, and Franz Mauelshagen (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2018), 5.950c2fa1495db7081eb42.html#:~:text=We%20can%20say%20that%20
303. around,to%20the%20global%20economic%20system.
4 Alan Buis, “Milankovitch (Orbital) Cycles and Their Role in 16 Bas J. P. van Bavel, Daniel R. Curtis, Matthew J. Hannaford, Michail
Earth’s Climate,” NASA website, https://climate.nasa.gov/ Moatsos, Joris Roosen, and Tim Soens, “Climate and Society in Long-
news/2948/milankovitch-orbital-cycles-and-their-role-in- Term Perspectives: Opportunities and Pitfalls in the Use of Historical
Earths-climate/#:~:text=The%20Milankovitch%20cycles%20 Datasets,” Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 10 (2019):
include%3A,is%20pointed%2C%20known%20as%20precession. Article e611, 13.
5 Eduardo Zorita, Sebastian Wagner, and Fredrik Schenk, “The Global 17 Sky Michael Johnston, “Accounting for a Fruitful Little Ice Age:
Climate System,” in The Palgrave Handbook of Climate History, Overlapping Scales of Climate and Culture in Württemberg, 1560-
1590,” Environmental History 27 no. 4 (2022): 722−746.
Klein High School - Klein, TX
ed. Sam White, Christian Pfister, and Franz Mauelshagen (London:
Palgrave Macmillan, 2018), 21−26. 18 Dipesh Chakrabarty, The Climate of History in a Planetary Age
6 Christian Pfister, Sam White, and Franz Mauelshagen, “General (University of Chicago Press, 2021).
Introduction: Weather, Climate, and Human History,” in The Palgrave 19 Mike Walker, Martin J. Head, John Lowe, Max Berkelhammer, Svante
Handbook of Climate History, ed. Sam White, Christian Pfister, and Björck, et al, “Subdividing the Holocene Series/Epoch: formalization
Franz Mauelshagen (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2018), 2−3. of stages/ages and subseries/subepochs, and designation of GSSPs
7 Stefan Brönnimann, Christian Pfister, and Sam White, “Archives and auxiliary stratotypes,” Journal of Quaternary Science 34 (2019):
of Nature and Archives of Societies,” in The Palgrave Handbook 173−186.
of Climate History, ed. Sam White, Christian Pfister, and Franz 20 D enise Su, “A Reader’s Question About Surviving the Ice Age,” Sapiens
Mauelshagen (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2018), 30−34. Magazine website, https://www.sapiens.org/archaeology/ice-age-
8 “Ice Core 101,” Climate Change Institute, University of Maine website, survival-homo-sapiens/.
accessed September 2, 2023, https://climatechange.umaine.edu/icecores/ 21 Franz Mauelshagen, “Migration and Climate in World History,” in
Ice_Core_101.html. The Palgrave Handbook of Climate History, ed. Sam White, Christian
9 “2022 Climate Year in Review for Phoenix, Yuma, and El Centro,” Pfister, and Franz Mauelshagen (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2018),
NOAA, https://www.weather.gov/psr/yearinreview2022. 418.
10 Raphael Neukom, Nathan Steiger, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, Jianghao 22 “ Population,” United Nations, Accessed 29 March 2024, https://
Wang, and Johannes P. Werner, “No Evidence for Globally Coherent www.un.org/en/global-issues/population#:~:text=The%20world's%20
Warm and Cold Periods over the Preindustrial Common Era,” Nature population%20is%20more,and%202%20billion%20since%201998.
571 (2019): 550−72. 23 Siying He, Meiying Jia, Yinping Xiang, Biao Song, Weiping Xiong, et
11 Dagomar Degroot, Kevin Anchukaitis, Martin Bauch, Jakob Burnham, al, “Biofilm on microplastics in aqueous environment: Physicochemical
Fred Carnegy, Jianxin Cui, et al., “Towards a Rigorous Understanding properties and environmental implications,” Journal of Hazardous
of Societal Responses to Climate Change,” Nature 591 (2021): 542. Materials 424 (2022): 127286.
12 I PCC, 2018: Annex I: Glossary [Matthews, J.B.R. (ed.)]. In: Global 24 A melie Lindgren, Gustaf Hugelius, Peter Kuhry, Torben R. Christensen,
Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global and Jef Vandenberghe, “GIS-based Maps and Area Estimates of
warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global Northern Hemisphere Permafrost Extent during the Last Glacial
greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening Maximum,” Permafrost and Periglacial Processes 27 (2015): 6−16.
the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable 25 S. A. Elias, “The Quaternary,” in Reference Module in Earth Systems
development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte, V., and Environmental Sciences, Elsevier (2013), 1−3.
P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. 26 John L. Brooke, “The Holocene,” in The Palgrave Handbook of Climate
Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, History, ed. Sam White, Christian Pfister, and Franz Mauelshagen
Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2018), 175−176.
T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and
27 Mike Walker, et al, “Subdividing the Holocene Series/Epoch,” 173−186.
New York, NY, USA, pp. 541−562, doi:10.1017/9781009157940.008.
28 Franz Mauelshagen, “Migration and Climate in World History,” 415.
13 Jonathan Amos, “Anthropocene Unit of Geological Time is Rejected,”
BBC, 21 March 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environ- 29 T. Rowan McLaughlin, Magdalena Gómez-Puche, João Cascalheira,
ment-68632086. Nuno Bicho and Javier Fernández-López de Pablo, “Late Glacial
14 Working Group on the ‘Anthropocene,’ “Results of binding vote and Early Holocene human demographic responses to climatic and
by AWG Released 21st May 2019,” Subcommission on Quaternary environmental change in Atlantic Iberia,” Philosophical Transactions
Stratigraphy website, http://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/working-groups/ of the Royal Society B 376 (2021): 20190724; James Hansford, Patricia
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R. Godfrey, et al, “Early Holocene human presence in Madagascar 52 iaolin Ren, Junjie Xu, Hui Wang, Michael Storozum, Peng Lu, et al,
X
evidenced by exploitation of avian megafauna,” Science Advances 4 “Holocene fluctuations in vegetation and human population demonstrate
(2018): eaat6925. social resilience in the prehistory of the Central Plains of China,”
30 David J. Meltzer, “Overkill, glacial history, and the extinction of North Environmental Research Letters 16 (2021): 055030.
America’s Ice Age megafauna,” PNAS 117 (2020): 28555-28563. 53 Chaochao Gao, Francis Ludlow, John A. Matthews, Alexander R. Stine,
31 “The Development of Agriculture,” National Geographic, https:// Alan Robock, et al, “Volcanic climate impacts can act as ultimate and
education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/development-agriculture/. proximate causes of Chinese dynastic collapse,” Communications Earth
32 John L. Brooke, “The Holocene,” 178. & Environment 2 (2021).
33 Dániel Kondor, James S. Bennett, Detlef Gronenborn, Nicolas Antunes, 54 Boris V. Schmid et al., “Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death
Daniel Hoyer, et al, “Explaining population booms and busts in Mid- and successive plague reintroductions into Europe,” PNAS 112 (2015):
Holocene Europe,” Scientific Reports 13 (2023): 9310. 3020−25.
34 Mike Walker, et al, “Subdividing the Holocene Series/Epoch,” 178−180. 55 Christian Pfister, Rudolf Brázdil, Jürg Luterbacher, Astrid E. J. Ogilvie,
and Sam White, “Early Modern Europe,” in The Palgrave Handbook
35 Mike Walker, et al, “Subdividing the Holocene Series/Epoch,” 182−183.
of Climate History, ed. Sam White, Christian Pfister, and Franz
36 A ndrew H. Knoll, A Brief History of Earth: Four Billion Years in Eight Mauelshagen (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2018), 268.
Chapters (New York: Mariner Books, 2021).
56 Sam White, A Cold Welcome: The Little Ice Age and Europe’s
37 Christian Pfister, “Weeping in the Snow: The Second Period of Little Ice Encounter with North America (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University
Age Type Impacts, 1570–1630,” in Cultural Consequences of the “Little Press, 2017), 9–27.
Ice Age,” ed. Wolfgang Behringer, Hartmut Lehmann, and Christian
57 Patricia Seed, Ceremonies of Possession: Europe’s Conquest of the New
Pfister (Göttingen: Vandenhoeck & Ruprecht, 2005).
World 1492-1640 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995).
38 Gideon Lewis-Kraus, “Early Civilizations Had It All Figured Out,”
58 Sam White, A Cold Welcome, 76−85.
The New Yorker, November 1, 2021, https://www.newyorker.com/
magazine/2021/11/08/early-civilizations-had-it-all-figured-out-the- 59 Dagomar Degroot, The Frigid Golden Age: Climate Change, the Little
dawn-of-everything. Ice Age, and the Dutch Republic, 1560–1720 (Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press, 2018).
39 Dagomar Degroot, et al, “Towards a Rigorous Understanding of Societal
Responses to Climate Change,” 539. 60 Sam White, John Brooke, and Christian Pfister, “Climate, Weather,
Agriculture, and Food,” in The Palgrave Handbook of Climate History,
40 Min Ran and Liang Chen, “The 4.2 ka BP climatic event and its cultural
ed. Sam White, Christian Pfister, and Franz Mauelshagen (London:
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Palgrave Macmillan, 2018), 343.
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41 Harvey Weiss, “Global megadrought, societal collapse and resilience
61 Sam White, A Cold Welcome, 50−69.
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Magazine 24 (2016): 62−63. 62 Sky Michael Johnston, “Accounting for a Fruitful Little Ice Age.”
42 Jason Ur, “Urban Adaptions to Climate Change in Northern 63 Peter J. Thuesen, Tornado God: American Religion and Violent Weather
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43 Fabian Welc and Leszek Marks, “Climate change at the end of the Old journal of culture/theory/politics 107 (2022): 171−190.
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Quaternary International 324 (2014): 124−133. Törnquist, Håkan Pettersson, and Mats Eriksson, “Plutonium Signatures
44 Som Dutt, Anil K. Gupta, Manjeet Singh, Sonu Jaglan, P. Saravanan, in a Dated Sediment Core as a Tool to Reveal Nuclear Sources in the
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Quaternary International (2018). 66 Duncan Cook, “Plastic rocks, plutonium, and chicken bones: the
45 Oscar Agesandro García-Arriola, Priyadarsi D. Roy, Irma Gabriela markers we’re laying down in deep time,” The Conversation,
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Central Mesoamerica (Southwest Mexico) Over the Holocene and time-209788.
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46 Peregrine Horden, “Mediterranean Antiquity,” in The Palgrave 68 Crutzen and Stoermer, “The ‘Anthropocene,’” 17.
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Franz Mauelshagen (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2018), 183−188. AWG.”
47 Seb Falk, The Light Ages: The Surprising Story of Medieval Science 70 IPCC, 2018: Annex I: Glossary, italics in original.
(New York: W. W. Norton, 2020).
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48 Timothy P. Newfield, “The Climate Downturn of 536-550,” in The AWG.”
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Pfister, and Franz Mauelshagen (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2018),
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447−493.
73 P. C. Tzedakis, J. E. T. Channell, D. A. Hodell, H. F. Kleiven and L. C.
49 A nn Gibbons, “Why 536 Was the ‘Worst Year to Be Alive,’” Science,
Skinner “Determining the natural length of the current interglacial,”
November 15, 2018, https://www.science.org/content/article/why-536-
Nature Geoscience 5, 138–141 (2012).
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74 Alister Doyle, “Global warming could stave off next ice age for 100,000
50 F iona Williamson, “The ‘Cultural Turn’ of Climate History:
years,” Reuters, January 13, 2016.
An Emerging Field for Studies of China and East Asia,” Wiley
Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 11 (2020): art. e635, 6–7. 75 PAGES 2k Consortium, “Consistent multidecadal variability in global
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