OU eto Economist BUC leet oe CRN Lalo Prem Utep tate face tistics rtd PY Waconia fo mero toes toe tented Wil?“The Economist Apl 12th 2025 Contents Onthe cover Itis too late to undo the damage from Donald Trumps chaotic trade palcy: leader, page 1. The trade war between America and China intensifies, page 63. Explaining the Ucturn, page 68. How chaotic markets took the financial system ‘othe brink, page 62 Americas tariffs are the most disruptive policy shockin trade history: Free exchange, page 69 ‘The assault on America’s Universities Donald Trumis plan toremake universities threatens America’s prosperity and freedom: leader, page 2 He is batting the elite universties—and winning, page 20. Why rich hies depend on federal funding, page 22 Iran and America: nuclear options The world should welcome America’s nuclear talks with ran: leader, page 3. Donald Trump is gambling onan ran deal, page 31 How at can be good for the climate Maximising A's green potential leader, page 4 Assessing A's environmental footprint, page 7 From mining to steelmaking, heavy industies ae cleaning up with Al, page 73 Oh, grow up! “Adulting’ courses ate onthe rise in America, page 76 The digital element ofyour subscription means that you can search our archive, read all of eur daily journalism, listen to podcasts and watch videos on ‘our app or website. The world this week 9 Asammary of political and business news Leaders 11 Global trade The age of chaos 12 Higher education The campus counter-revolution 13 Arms for Ukraine Give them the money 43 Talking to Iran Asensible move 14 Artificial intelligence Friend, not foe Letters 36 On Marine Le Pen, poor high earners, at safety, ‘names, supethumans, Bartleby By Invitation 48 Martin Chavez on regulating At like finance United States 23 Deporting foreign seudents 24 Republicans and trade a5 Tarifsin court 26 Government on tape 27 School vouchers in Texas 28 Lexington The art of the delay ‘The Americas 29 Mexico's tariffled edge 30 Achaotic COP to.come 32 I's amass gas passin Colombia Asi 33 Will China pounce? 34 Rice shortages 35 South Korea's democracy 36 Banyan Trump and Kim Briefing 20 The war on universities Besieging the ivory tower 22 University finances Cash poor Banyan What's next for the bromance berween Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un? Page 36 China 37 Reweaving the Silk Road 38 Chinese mercenaries in Ukraine 40 Shoemakers and tariffs Middle East & Africa 41 America and Iran to talk 42 Destroying Gaza 43 Israel v Turkey in Syria 44 Burkina Faso’s young, leader »» Contents continues overleaf8 ‘The Economist Apl 21h 2025 Contents Europe Finance & economics 45 Germany's government 63 America v China 46 Fighting back on tariffs 65 Rare earths 47 Ukraine holds the line 48 Ukraine's arms industry 49 Turkish protests (66 Trump's U-turn 67 What does America want? 67 Markets onthe edge of 49 Spain's unidentified meltdown migrants 69 Free exchange A historic 50 Charlemagne The thing blow about Europe ee SN TEETER Science & technology Britain 71 Ars energy usage 73 Greening industry with At 74 atand green electricity 75 Data centres in space 1 Britain and tariffs 52 Government communications 53 Bagehot Zombie politics _, Culture International 76 How tobe an adult 4 ATshidden workforce 77 The Fick’ reopening 36 The Telegram Dreaded 78 Back Story Fictional q ane the peacemakers presidents 79 Problematic pronouns 79 An argument for belief 80 The rise of Nvidia Business Economic & financial indicators 57 Bruised Apple 81 Statistics on 42 economies 58 Hermés on ahigh eee SSS 59 TikTok forsale Obituary 60 Prices and tariffs 82 Betty Webb, a voice for Bletchley Park 60 Amazon in space 61 Bartleby Workforce wellness 6z Schumpeter Is cash king? Temirae ce en pee it aad as Ciieyde oa ao es oO = See os Sasa er coe 1205s pp in ip Na pn ey ol“The Economist Anil 12th 2025 The world t! week Poli S Donald Trump pulled back from his latest and biggest round of punitive tariffs by announcing a 0-day pause for countries that did not impose retaliatory trade duties, taking them down toa 10% tariff. The ‘American president said more than 75 countries were willing tonegotiate. He did not offer any relief for China, however, instead raising the tariff rate on Chinese imports. China had eatlier vowed to “fight to the end” asitimposed counter: tariffs on American imports. It described the extra duties as “a mistake on top of amistake’ Mr Trump and his defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, sug- ‘gested that America’s defence budget forthe next fiscal year will top Sut for the frst time when itis published next month Congress authorised sound $899n fortis year Rasputinin the White House MrTramp sacked General ‘Timothy Haugh as director of the National Security Agency. General Haugh was eportedly ousted by Mr Trump on the advice of Laura Loomer,a 31-year-old conspiracy cheorist ‘who has been banned from ‘most social-media sites. She is stillon X, where she wrote that General Haugh had been disloyal to Mr Trump. She provided no evidence. Mr Heegseth became the fist American defence secretary in decades tovisit the Panama Canal, where he reiterated ‘Amerials intention to wrest the waterway away from what he described as Chinese influ- ence. Adealto sel the canal’s ports operated by Ck Hutchi- Son, company in Hong Kong, toBlackRock,an American investment frm, looks increas- ingly shaky; the Trump-friend- lyPanamanian government is opening an investigation into (ck Hutchison's port contracts ‘The legal battle over deporting alleged Venezuelan gang mem: bers to El Salvadortook anoth- ertwist. The Supreme Court decided that the deportations could continue, bur that the migrants could challenge their removal in the legal jurisdic~ tions where chey are being held. That caused two judges in New Yorkand Texas todelay the deportation of migrants until they received a hearing. ‘The 1t¢ announced a prelimi- nary deal with Argentina fora fanding programme worth $2obn, President Javier Mili, ‘who has radically cut spending and reduced inflation, celebrat edthe announcement Itis expected to herald the begin- ning of adificulr bur much- needed shift toa more flexible exchange rate. ‘The death tol from the col lapse of aroof.ata nightclub in the Dominican Republic rose toalmost 200. The club was hosting a concert by Rubby Pérez, popular singer, who waskilled. Politicians, sports- men and celebrities were also atthe venue During avisitby Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, to the White House Donald Trump announced that ‘America would start “direct” talks with Tran about itsnuc- learprogramme. MrNetanyahu hhad hoped to persuade the American president tharit was time instead to bomb Iran's, ruclearsites Avideo was published of Israeli troops killing 15 Palestinian medics near Rafah last month, ‘The Israeli army claimed the ‘medics’ convoy wasdriving suspiciously, without lights or sirens, But the footage, obtained from the phone of a dead medic, showed that the ambulances had thei lights and signals on. The Israeli army now says the episode is "under thorough examination’ Israel strucka number of military targets in Syria, escalating tensions with ‘Turkey. Relations between the two regional powers have worsened since the war in Gaza began. They re now compet- ing forinfluence in Syria, Amnesty Intemational recond- ed more than 4,500 executions around the wold in 2024, the highest level fora decade. Iran, lraqand Saudi Arabia account- ed for1.380of them. The fg- uresdonotcovera number of countries including China, believed tobe the world's biggest executioner. Planned peace talks between Congo's government and M23, arebel group backed by Rwanda, were postponed indefinitely, shattering the latest hope of easing the brutal conflictineastern Congo. ‘Thousands of people have been killed and tensof thou- sands displacedin the fighting. Nigeria received im doses of vaccine tohelp containa ‘meningitis outbreak tharhas killed atleast sso people, and probably many more, in the poornoith. The country suffers Fegular outbreaks ofthe disease which its underfunded health-care system struggles tocontro, Friedrich Merz, Germany's all-but-guaranteed next chan- cellos unveiled a coalition deat ‘between his Christian Demo- cratsand the Social Democrats (SeD).IfseD members approve theagreement MrMerz should besworn into office in May. His popularity has fallen since he decided to increase state borrowing, after campaigning against doing so. ‘Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine had captured two Chinese nationals fighting forRussia in eastern Ukraine and thatat least ss others were onthe battlefield. China's foreign ministry said it was verifying the claims, and that it does not support Chinese nationals'involvement “inany party’smilitary oper- ations’. North Korea has sent troops o aid Russia, bur they fought in Russia's Kurskre- ‘gion, not on Ukrainian territo- 1. Ukraine has been mostly pushed outof Kursk, chough MrZelensky has confirmed ‘that his forces are now fighting inBelgorod, ‘The British government dropped plans for official inquiries in five towns where sexgrooming gangs had abused young girls, The ities had been announced in january amid a furore over the gangs, which largely consisted of perpetrators from Pakistan or with Pakistani heritage. The government will instead make funds available to local authoritiesand allow themto decide where indepen: dent local inquiries are appro- priate. Thedecision wasmet by claims that the victims of abuse hhad been betrayed. Goodbye, Mr Yoon South Korea isto hold apresi- dential election on June 3d. ‘The announcement came after the Constitutional Court e- ‘moved Yoon Suk Yeo! from office, following his impeach- ment by the legislature in mid-December. Mr Yoon had briefly imposed martial awin early December, apolitical shock that revived memories of the country’s military dictator ships from the 1960s the 4980s. lleight judges onthe court voted to remove MrYoon, sharply criticising him for violating “the principles of the rule of lawand democracy”‘The Economist Apl 12th 2025 week Business sePso0 1941430 000 eae Stockmarkets rebounded on April gthafter Donald Trump announced a90-day pause on his far-reaching punitive tariffs, clawing back some of their earlier losses. The S&P 500 jumped by9 5%, adding about $4.2tm toitsvalue-Earlierin the week global marketshad ‘gone into meltdown; $5tra was Wiped off the se so0 in two days. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite also soared, having its best day since 2001. had hitbearteritory earlier, having plunged by 23% from its most recent peak. Markets in Europe and Asia also recovered. Asian stocks had endured their worst sessions in decades, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index plunging by 13% in a day. ‘The prices of America's gov- emmentbonds were battered inthe market turmoil. Usually ‘Treasuries do wellinastock- market rout, utinvestors such ashedge funds were said tobe cashing outof them under duress. The yield on ten-year “Treasuries had jumped overa few days from 3.985 10 4.5%, increasing the cost tothe gov- emnmentof servicingitsalready mighty debe. Wall Street and business titans voiced thei criticisms of MrTrump’strade policy, which may have been a factorin push- ing him to pause his tariffs. Bill ‘Ackman, an investor who once described the administration asthe *most pro-growth” he'd seen, said he'd assumed that “economicrationality would be paramount. My bad” (He then said he was “totally supportive of MrTrump" and described himas “tough, but fair) Larry Fink warned ofa “real down- turn’. The share price of Black- Rock, the frm he leads, is down bysai this year. Jamie Dimon, the boss of P Morgan Chase, said America Fist risked turn- ing into Americaalone. Even Elon Musk was eitical, calling Peter Navarro, MrTrump's trade guru,a “moron Earlierin the week the dollar fell amid fears ofa recession, Speculation swirled about how farChina would goin allowing the yuanto weaken inorder to boostits exports, The Chinese central bank, which manages the exchange rate at which che currencyis traded, hadlecthe yuan fall 07.20 che dollar, its supposed soft redline. In Japan the yen rallied against the dollaras investors piled into safe-haven assets, though the greenback rebounded on Mr ‘Trump'stariff reversal, How the mighty fell Companies that are most exposed to tariffs saw their market value lump. Among them, Apple's share price dived by 23% overfive daysbefore bouncing back. The iPhone is assembled mostly in China and subject tothe extra trade levies, , wich makes its sports shoesin Vietnam, saw an.8% decline inits stock. Its share price surged when Mr Trump suspended his tariffs and the Vietnamese government an: nounced that it would hold trade talks with America. Reports emerged about the immediate effect of tariffson the carindustry, which remain inplace atas%. Jaguar Land Rover, acarmakerbased in Britain, suspendedits exports to America. American ports were filing up with cars as ‘manufacturers held their vehi- cles there to stop them from becoming subjectto the levy. InBritain the government slightly softened is rules sur- rounding he phasing-out of petrol cars. It said the ban on sales of new petrol and diesel carsales would still come into effectin 2030, butthat new hybrid vehiles could continue tobe sold until 2035. And small manufacturers, such as Aston Martinand McLaren, will now be exempt. The carindustry's association responded that given America’s car tariff, Which were not included in Mr ‘Trump's wider pause, more action would beneeded. Oil prices sanktotheirlowese point in nearly fouryears,as tradersbet that demand would fallamid apossibe global recession. Brent crude sagged below $60 barrelbefore snapping back to$6s.Itstarted the yearat $7s. India's central bank cuits ‘benchmarkinterest rate by another quarter ofa percentage Point, 106%. te also indicated it would be more open to further cutsto maintain growth amid economic turmol ‘The share price of global drugs companies fellsharply after MrTrump hinted that the pharmaceutical industry would behis next target for tariffs. ‘They were not included in his recentbroadside. Stocks in European and Indian drug- makers were particularly hard- hit Abouta third of India's exports of generic versions of popular drugs go to America, Deluded ‘MrTrump signed another ‘say extension to finda way toallow TikTok o continue operating in America. The president suggested a deal had been close but fell apart over China’ objections to tariff He claimed thatifhe had cut CChina’s trade duties it “would have approved that deal in1s minutes, which shows the power of tariffs"“The Economist Api 12th 2025 Pee Leaders 1 The age of chaos Itis too late to undo the damage from Donald Trump's incoherent trade policy A TTER-Ti er, the euphoria When, on Api th Presi dent Donald Trump postponed for 9o days the most illog- ical and destructive of his tariffs, after a meltdown in financial markets, the S&P 500 index of American stocks rose by 9.5%, its fastest daily rise in nearly 17 years. The darkest scenarios for the world economy that had been envisaged by investors until that moment are now unlikely. It seems there is some limit to the market falls the president will tolerate om his watch. After the chaos that had followed Mr Trump's announcement of “re- ciprocal” tariffs a week earlier, that is no small source of com- fort for the world, But do not mistake the consolation of having avoided disa ter for good fortune. The scale of the shock to global trade set off by Mr Trump is still, even now, unlike anything seen in hi tory (see Free exchange). He has replaced the stable trading re- lations which America spent over half a century building with whimsical and arbitrary policymaking, in which decisions are posted on social media and not even his advisers know what is coming next, And he is still in an extraordinary trade confron- tation with China, the world’s second-biggest economy. Investors and companies everywhere have been put through the wringer. Global markets crashed in response to Mr ‘Trump's first tariff announcement. The S&P 500 fell by about 415%. Long-dated Treasuries sold off, as hedge funds were forced to unwind their leveraged positions. The dollar, which is supposed to be a safe haven, fell. After the tariffs were de- layed, stockmarkets enjoyed a vertiginous climb. Between its low and high on the day, Nvidia's value fluctuated by over $43obn. Even after the tariff pause, however, Trea- sury yields remain elevated. Global stocks are 11% below their highs in February—and justifiably so. Mr ‘Trump has still raised America’s average tariff rate to over 25% since January, with the promise of more levies, including on pharmaceuticals imports, to come. The president's advisers display a jaw-dropping insouciance about the damage tariffs cando to the economy. In their view, foreigners foot the bill for tariffs and market declines hurt only rich investors. Yet the dollar's fall all but guarantees that tariffs will cause American consumer prices to surge, hurting houscholds’ real in- comes. The knock-on hit to consumer spending, including on ‘goods made in America, is likely to be substantial, compound- ed by the blow to confidence from volatile stocks. Assimilar blow will be dealt to capital spending. More than the precise level of tariffs, firms crave certainty that the rules of global trade will remain stable, so that they can plan their long-term investments. For example, although China's acces- sion to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001 led to an explosion of trade, it did not involve materially lower trade bar- riers with America. Instead, businesses gained the confidence that there would not be a trade war, an effect that economists later estimated as being worth a staggering 13:percentage- point reduction in duties. ‘Mr Trump has now put that confidence effect into reverse, forboth America and its trading partners—especially since his tariffs have disregarded America’s past trade deals, including those he signed in his first term, It is still unclear what Mr ‘Trump really wants to achieve in his 90-day holding period: his apparent goals of extracting concessions from other nations and teshoring manufacturing jobs contradict one another. If tariffs are lowered, reshoring will not happen. Yet if trading partners suspect he is committed to protectionism, why would they offer concessions? And even if all the tariffs are rolled back, the memory of “Liberation Day” will linger in the minds of any company building a supply chain. In any case, Mr Trump remains in an open stand-off with China from which it could be hard to back down. As we pub- lished this leader, America’s new tariff on Chinese imports had reached 125%; China's levies, including in retaliation, came to 84%. These tariffs are high enough to devastate goods trade between the world’s two largest economies, which have hither- to been deeply intertwined even as tensions have ratcheted up between the superpowers. Mr Trump says that “China wants to make a deal”. But, as with America's allies, only he knows what such a deal might be. Formore than a decade there hasbeen no shortage of Wester complaints against China's approach to trade. The country has Jong violated atleast the spirit of the WTO. Its model of state capitalism, in which its export- ers are supported by an opaque system of sub- sidies and state-backed finance, can be hard to square with a transparent, rules-based order. And China's manufacturing surpluses have been so large in part because its own con- sumption is too low. None of this makes America poorer in aggregate, but it does mean that trade with China is not perceived to be fair—especially by those workers who have been displaced by it. Superpower showdown Yet a destructive and unpredictable tariff war was never the right way to approach these problems (which were in any case poised to improve as China stimulates its economy). Both sides’ tariffs are causing deep economic harm; they may also raise the risk of a military showdown. A more promising route for America was to marshal its allies into a free-trade bloc large enough to force China to change its trade practices asthe price of admission. This was the strategy behind the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade deal that Mr Trump binned in bis first term. Scott Bessent, the treasury secretary, talks of doing a trade deal with allies and approaching China “as a group’. But now that it has bullied its allies and reneged on its past deals, ‘America will ind they are less willing to co-operate. Such is the short-sightedness of Mr Trumpss reckless agen- da. Ina mere ten days the president has encled the old certain- ties that underpinned the world economy, replacing them with extraordinary levels of volatility and confusion. Some of the chaos may have abated for now. Buti will take a very long time to rebuild what has been lost. a‘The Economist Apl 12th 2025 Higher education The campus counter-revolution Donald Trump's plan to remake universities threatens America’s prosperity and freedom 64 [1255 economic elation and we wil win® Donald ‘Trumps line on tariffs sounds like something from Robespierre or Engels. And as any revolutionary knows, to sweep away the old order it is not enough just to raise import duties. You also have to seize and refashion the institutions that control the culture. In America that means wresting con- trol of Ivy League universities which play an outsize role in forming the elite (including Mr Trump's cabinet). The MAGA plan to remake the Ivies could have terrible consequences for higher education, for innovation, for economic growth and even for what sort of country America is (see Briefing). And it is only just beginning. “The target has been exquisitely chosen. Over the past de- cade elite universities have lost the bipartisan support they used to enjoy. This was partly their own fault. In too many cas es they succumbed to faddish groupthink about oppression, became scared of their student-customers and turned away speakers in the name of safety. At the same time, American politics became more polarised by educational achievement. Kamala Haris lost the popular vote in the 2024 presidential election. But she won Americans with post-graduate degrees ‘by 20 points. This combination left the academy vulnerable. But the most substantive change has been within the Republican Party. Conservatives considered elite universities to be hostile territory even before William F Buckley published "God and ‘Man at Yale” in 19st, Yet they also respected the basic compact that exists between univer- sities and the federal government: that taxpay- ers fund scientific research and provide grants for students from poor families, and in return, universities do world-changing research. Some of the researchers may have views that irk the White House of the day. Many are foreigners. But their work ends up ‘benefiting America. That is why, in1962, the government fund eda particle accelerator, even though some people who would use it had long hair and hated American foreign policy. And why, later that decade, researchers at American universities in- vented the internet, with military funding. ‘This deal has been the source of military as well as econom- ic power. It has contributed to almost every technological leap that has boosted output, from the internet to mRNA vaccines and GLP- agonists to artificial intelligence. It has made Amer- ica a magnet for talented, ambitious people from around the world. It is this compact—not bringing car factories back to the rust belt—that is the key to America's prosperity. And now the Trump administration wants to tear it up. His government has used federal grants to take revenge on universities: the presidents of Princeton and Cornell criticised the government and promptly had over $ibn in grants can- celled or frozen. Ithas arrested foreign students who have crit icised the conduct of Israel's war in Gaza. It has threatened to increase the tax on endowments: |.D. Vance (Yale Law School) hhas proposed raising it on large endowments from 1.4% to 35%. ‘What it wants in return varies. Sometimes it is to eradicate the woke-mind virus. Sometimes it is to eradicate antisemi- tism, It always involves a double standard on free speech, ac- cording to which you can complain about cancel culture and then cheer on the deportation of a foreign student for publish- ing an op-ed in a college newspaper. This suggests that, as with any revolution, it is about who has power and control. So far, universities have tried to lie flat and hope Mr Trump leaves them alone, just like many of the big law firms that the president has targeted, The Ivy presidents meet every month or so, but have yet to come up with 2 common approach. Meanwhile, Harvard is changing the leadership of its Middle East studies department and Columbia is on its third presi- dentin a year. This strategy is unlikely to work. The MAGA van- guard cannot believe how quickly the Ivies have capitulated. ‘The Ivies also underestimate the fervour of the revolutionaries they are up against. Some of them don't just want to tax Har- vard—they want to burn it down. Resisting the administration's assault requires courage. Harvard's endowment is about the same size as the sovereign- wealth fund of the oil-rich sultanate of Oman, which should buy some bravery. But that mooted tax could shrink it quickly. Harvard receives over $ibn in grants each year. Columbia's an- nual budget is $6bn; it receives $13bn in grants. Other elite universities are less fortunate. If even the Ivies cannot stand up to bullying, there is not much hope for elite public universities, which are just as dependent on research funding and do not have vast endowments to absorb govern- ‘ment pressure. How, then, should universities respond? Some things that their presidents want to do anyway, such as adopting codes protecting free speech on campus, cutting administrative staff, banning the use of “diversity” statements in hiring and ensuring more diverse viewpoints among academics, accord with the views of many Republicans (and this newspaper). But the universities should draw a clear line: even if it means losing government funding, what they teach and research is for them to decide. Like Tke This principle is one reason why America became the world’s ‘most innovative economy over the past 70 years, and why Rus- sia and China did not. Yet even that undersells its value. Free inquiry is one of the comerstones of American liberty, along with the freedom to criticise the president without fear of ret- ribution. True conservatives have always known this. “The free university”, said Dwight Eisenhower in his farewell presiden- tial address in 1961, has been “the fountainhead of free ideas and scientific discovery”, Eisenhower, who was president of Columbia before he was president of the United States, warned that when universities become dependent on government grants, the government can control scholarship. For along time that warning seemed a bit hysterical. America never had a president willing to exert such authority over colleges, Now it does.“The Economist Anil 12th 2025 Leaders 13 ‘Arms for Ukraine Give them the money Europe should buy from Ukraine's You Ba wel thnk tha thse ae paca fica times in Ukraine. Last year’s American aid package is near- lyused up, and no one expects another. Russia is launching an other spring offensive and pummelling Ukraine's cities from the sky. Donald Trump's efforts to secure a peace deal have not yielded even a proposed 30-day ceasefire. In fact, the mood in Kyivis arguably more confident than it was when last year's spring offensive loomed. One big reason is that Ukraine is much less reliant on foreign kit (see Europe section). The country’s defence industry, largely abandoned after the collapse of the Soviet Union, is once again firing on all cylinders. This year production is expected to amount to around $isbn-worth of armaments, up from just $ibn in 2022, the year Russia's full-scale invasion began. Hundreds of tech startups have joined older state-run firms in manufac~ turing artillery, ammunition, armoured vehi- cles and—above all—drones and missiles. ‘The drones have transformed the battle- field. Churned out in their millions by newly formed Ukrainian companies, they are cheap- er and ofien better than Western versions. Short-range drones can spot anything that moves, swooping in to take out a tank or an exposed Russian soldier. Longer-range drones and mis- siles can hit command centres, ammunition dumps, barracks and industrial targets. Being home-made, they are not subject to foreigners’ restrictions on what can be hit. Ukrainian officials claim their troops are now killing be- tween seven and ten Russians for every soldier they lose. So al- though Ukraine is still heavily outnumbered, the imbalance in manpower matters less than it did. That is why Russia has been battling for almost nine months, at gruesome cost, to take the small city of Pokrovsk (with a pre-war population of defence industry, and invest in it 60,000). Russia occupies around 19% of Ukraine, almost exact- ly the same proportion asit did at the end of 2022. No one now talks, as they used to, of an imminent Ukrainian collapse. Yet the improvement in Ukraine's battlefield fortunes would be even more striking if European governments, and the EU itself, stepped up. One way to meet Ukraine’s defence needs is to send it more Europe-made kit, but that is hard be- cause most defence companies are loth to scale up production without long-term contracts (an exception is Rheinmetall). Instead, the Europeans should spend their military-assis- tance money to buttress Ukraine's own defence industry. Offi- cials say it has the capacity to produce around $3sbn-worth of, equipment this year, if only the government could afford to place more contracts. One option is for European governments to supply Ukraine with weapons that they buy directly from Ukrainian companies. That would allow domestic defence production to expand to the level of existing capacity, and beyond. FU governments could also encour- age, with contracts or even co-investment, joint ventures between European and Ukrainian firms. That could help the country develop faster and more accurate offen- sive missiles, and ideally redress Ukraine's biggest remaining ‘weakness: its desperate shortage of air-defence missile sys- tems that can knock out incoming Russian missiles. It would also mean that Ukrainian expertise in drone warfare is shared Contracting with Ukraine and setting up joint ventures with its firms would be a cost-effective way to mitigate the end of American assistance. Individual European countries, led by Denmark, have already started down this path. These efforts need to be built on. Give Ukrainian defence firms more money, and they will make their own tools to keep Russia at bay. Talking t ‘olan Asensible move from Donald Trump ‘The world should welcome America's nuclear talks with Iran, even if the results are modest F STARTED HIS second term vowing to be a peacemaker, to be judged by the wars he ends and the ones “we never {get into’. Thus farhe has not ended the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. But Donald ‘Trump's unorthodox ways may yet help avert a looming conflict with Iran. Steve Witkoff, his envoy to everywhere—Russia, Gaza and now Iran—is due to begin talks in Oman with Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister, on April sath, America wants direct talks; Iran says they should be in direct, via the Omanis, at least initially. Whatever the format, the stakes could not be higher. Iranis closer than ever to developing a nuclear bomb. Israel wants to take military action to stop it—with America if pos sible, alone if necessary. American B-2 bombers have massed in Diego Garcia; a second aircraft-carrier group has deployed to the Middle East. America is already bombing the Houthis, Iran'sallies in Yemen. If the talks fil, Mr Trump warns, “I think Iran is going to be in great danger” Any use of force, counters Tran, would lead to a “catastrophic war” that would “quickly ex- tend across the region’. Bette, surely, for the old foes to talk. ‘The Trump administration faces obstacles. ran distrusts an erratic president who, in his first term, tore up Barack Obama's nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, which largely froze Tran’s nnuclear-weapons programme in exchange for the lifting of many sanctions. Iran will not unlearn the technology it has mastered since then, and has amassed enough near-bomb- ‘grade uranium for several nuclear devices (see Middle East & »14 Leaders ‘The Economist Apl 12th 2025 » Aftica section). Moreover, the international co-operation Mr ‘Obama enjoyed has evaporated amid great-power rivalry. Still, Mr Trump enjoys advantages, too. The Iranian regime is weaker than in the past. Many Iranians are sick of the op- pressive mullahs, and the economy is reeling. The “axis of resistance’, Iran's network of allies and proxies in the Middle East, has crumbled under an Israeli military onslaught; so have Iran's own air defences. Congressional Republicans are in thrall to Mr Trump, and will not assail him over Israel as they did Mr Obama and Joe Biden, “The president wants to show he can do better than the JCPOA. Buthe is ina hurry, setting a two-month deadline foran agreement, partly because the ability to “snap back” the UN sanctions lifted under the JCPOA expites in October. A hasty deal may be a bad one. Mr Trump's national-security team is skeletal, inexperienced and ideologically divided. Tt seems tom between seeking the total dismantling of Iran's nuclear sites (a tall order) or limiting enrichment with outside veri tion (@ more feasible aim). Mr Trump may seek restraints on Iran's ballistic missiles and other weapons, and on its support for proxies, both of which will be difficult. As a businessman, he might add an economic dimension, which Iran is encourag- ing. Arab states, once dismayed by the JCPOA, cheer him on. Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, demands a “Libya solution’, the decision by Muammar Qaddafi, to give up his nuclear programme in 2003. He knows the mullahs will not accept it; they recall how Qaddafi was subsequently over- thrown and killed. Instead, Israel thinks it has an opportunity to strike at Iran's nuclear facilities, which may even hasten the fall of the regime. Israel has shown in Lebanon that military ac- tion can reset politics. But America knows from Iraq and Af- aghanistan that seemingly easy wars can also lead to disaster. If the talks collapse, Mr Trump faces bleak choices: risk a nuclear Iran; let Israel bomb Iran; or have America itself lead the strikes to ensure a more thorough job. Like his predeces- sors, he may opt fora flawed deal—perhaps even a worse one than the JcPOA—that leaves Iran as a latent nuclear power. But that would almost certainly be better than war. For all its fury at Mr Trump's trade madness, the world should wish him well in dealing with Iran, i Artificial intelligence Friend, not foe How Al could help the climate ‘VEN IF YOU don’t worry that artificial intelligence (AD) will destroy the human race, you might fret that its fearsome appetite for electricity will destroy the environment. Asking Chater a question means using ten times more energy than an old-fashioned search query. Google's greenhouse-gas emis- sions rose by nearly half between 2019 and 2023, as the AI boom took off; Microsoft's are up by almost 30% since 2020. With huge investments in new data centres planned, more ris- es seem baked in, But the doom-mongering is misplaced. In absolute terms, At may be less energy-hungry than many peo- ple assume. Better still, At can help decarbonise the industries that have proved hardest to clean up. Consider A1’s appetite for energy first. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reckons that electricity consumption by data centres could as much as treble in the next five years. Even if energy usage soars, though, the base is still ow. Data centres today account for about 15% of the world’s electricity consumption— and the vast majority of that is due to stream- ing, social media and online shopping, not Al. ‘Moreover, some of as electricity use will help with green- ing the economy. As we explain in this week's Science & tech: nology section, at excels at identifying complex patterns, crunching giant data sets and optimising systems, all of which can help slash emissions. aris already helping improve the ef ficiency of electrical grids, cut fuel use in shipping and spot otherwise invisible leaks of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. ‘The task for policymakers and industry bosses is to maxi- mise such benefits while minimising the climate impacts. The most elegant solution would be for governments to impose a proper price on carbon and leave the market to do its work. But because a global carbon price remains a distant dream, it is more realistic to focus on three other measures. ‘The fist is greater transparency. Working out exactly how much power AI models use i frustratingly hard, From August 2026 the EU will require some Al developers to report their en- ergy use in detail. That approach should be copied elsewhere. ‘A second is to rethink how data centres operate. The TEA notes that being able to shift workloads between different data centres at different times could reduce strain and help balance energy grids. More flexible data centres would also be aabetter match for the intermittent power produced by renew- ables such as wind and solar. ‘Third, tech firms should hold themselves to their own envi- ronmental promises. Microsoft, for instance, aims to become “carbon negative” by 2030. Some firms, such as Amazon, rely heavily on buying renewable-energy credits, which allow dirty electricity consumed in one place to be offset by paying for clean energy elsewhere. Such credits have their uses. But they are rife with creative accounting and conceptually fragile—much of the renewable energy might have been generated anyway, for instance. ‘A better approach would be for the tech firms to use the clout that their large demand for energy gives them to acceler- ate the decarbonisation of grids. They are already the largest buyers of clean electricity under long-term deals with inde- pendent generators in America. They could build and fund ‘more capacity themselves, help unbiock the deployment of clean energy more widely by pushing for planning reform, and .g0 further in supporting the development and expansion of al- ternative sources such as geothermal and nuclear power. Dou- bling down on such approaches would help transform Al from climate suspect to climate hero. i6 ‘The Economist Apl 12th 2025 Letters ‘ML LorTmserconoMiprcoM MoRELET Tne AVAABLE AF EEONOMISTCOM UETTERS Itis right to ban Ms Le Pen I disagree with yourleader arguing why Marine Le Pen shouldbe allowed to run for presidentin France ("Il-suited sentence’, April sth). The Economist isthe iastnewspaper that genuinely represents the classical liberal tradition. Sol have difficulty understanding your position that the judicial ecision to ban Ms Le Pen from the elections limiting the choice of citizens, who you say are capable of “judging for themselves who should get theiryote” ‘The constitutional democ racy that classical liberalism has historically promoted is precisely based on the idea that political legitimacy shouldbe distinguished from the popular will. Its opposite is populist democracy, where every issue islefeto the people todecide bby theirvote.In MsLe Pen's case there are solid reasons to think that people are unable or ‘unwilling to judge the matterin anon-partisan way. How can we trustthe judg. ment of citizens when itis obvious that theirview about whethera candidate should be barred from running iscom- pletely determined by partisan- ship? Itis exactly this kind of situation where the separat of powersand the rule of law are relevant. CYRIL HEDOIN Professorof economics Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenn Horrible for Henrys Bagehot’scolumn on the plight of those who are High Eamers, Not Rich Yet, or Henrys, fo- cusedon incomes and taxes (March 29th), But income is not ‘wealth, Plenty of people on high incomes are nt rich and the cost-of living crisis makes, itharder foreveryone toget rich, Conversely, there are plenty of extremely rich people with low incomes. These folk are assetrich and have become alotmore prosperous since the financial crisis of 2008, yer the tax system has not caught up. Westilltax earned income far ‘more than wealth orincome derived from capital. Thisisa disincentive to work and exac- erbates the unfairness of things like inheritances. So the ich aetricherand those who have towork tobecome richnever do.PoorHenry. RICHARD BAUM Burnham-on-Sea, Somerset ar ‘The By Invitation fromDan Hendeycks on why the devel- opment of artificial intel enceis different from the Manhattan Project that worked om the atom bomb raised im- portant questions (March 28th), However, his argument rested on assumptions that are far removed from today’s tech: nological reality Weare still working with systems that recognise pat ternsand generate plausible responses, not entities that think, reason oract indepen- dently. Framing today’s devel- opmentsin terms of apotential superinteligence, and warning, against a Manhattan Project on that bass, risks confusing fiction with fact. ‘The real testisn't hypotheti calbreakthroughs. It’s howwe govern the use of existing, technologies by people. The potential for damage hasal- ways depended on physical control over resources. Since the developmentof nuclear weapons, humanity has lived withthe potential forcarastro phe. What has kept ussafe are systems of restraint, account: ability and deterrence, not the absence of intelligence. DRHENNINGSTEIN Finance fellow Judge Business School Cambridge University Naming traditions ‘There is plenty of room for scepticism about the word- association methods you used toinfer what parents looked for ina baby's name over the past centuryanda half ("The impor- tance of being Ernest’, March 2and), Butone striking effect ‘you found for America shows increases in names with the connotations “strength, “in- telligence’ and possibly “reli gion” and decreasesin those associated with “beaut “benevolence” and "joy", be- tween about iz anda9is. This isunlikely tobe acoincidence, and suggests.a degree of valid- ityinyourfindings. What could have triggered it? The firse world war? The sinking of the Titanic? Or something routine lke a change inrecord- keeping practices? BOBLADD Edinburgh Who wants to live forever? Re-engineering people to live longer and healthier lives opens the way for otherbio- engineering applications (Cyborgs, superhumansand cranks’, March 22nd). For example, the objective of the ‘global space community isto colonise oursolarsystem. But even the most ardent enthusi astsbegrudgingly admit there's abig problem. Space is simply no country for humans. ‘The lethal effects of gamma radiation on fragile flesh the lack of breathable airand the dite impact of zero gravity on vision, muscles and bones are justafewofanendless list of physical problems that make space adeath trap, Even worse, there isno proof that humans can procreate inspace, which makes the prospect of living there less enjoyable and erodes the goal of establishing multi- ‘generational colonies. But Pioneers pushing back both space and ageing frontiers, should proceed cautiously. Abetterand longer life here on Earth, orbeyond, will breed ahostof social, political and legal questions. For example, will these bespoke next-gener- ation supervariants of our- selvesbe accepted asequals by those who choose to remain unmodified? Will ournew re-engineered cousins have the same legal rights asthe others? Will the“old" and the “new” humans become alien to each other? Would you want your daughter or son to marry one? And those ae the easy questions. DRJACK GREGG Witter California ‘Thereisanirony atthe heart of the longevity movement often championed by tech vision- aries. Although billionsare invested in futuristic interven- tions, basichealthin the devel- oped world is deteriorating. Obesityisrising, ultra-pro- cessed food dominates dits, physical inactivity the norm and chronic stress undermines well-being. Before turning to molecular fixes, we might frst rediscover stairsover elevators, real food over synthetic snacks and time outdoors over digital screens. The path to longer, healthier lives begins notin the Jab but in ourkitchens, side- walks and daily routines, DROLE FROBERT Aarhus, Denmark ‘Wanting tobe superhuman is the peak of arrogance. What if Stalin did not dieand remained inpower forever? Or}. Edgar Hoover? Ifthe old did not die their ideas and way of life ‘would govern us forever. We would foday be livingas people did millennia ago. No, forthe sake of humanity, itisbestthat the old die off including me, ‘butnotyet),so the young can bring about change. DRJOHN HODGE Boston Concerns aboutlongevity must betaken seriously. Otherwise Donald Trump could be with us forever. JAMES GIBSON ‘Quorn, Leicestershire Ifyourstriking cover, based on the Vitruvian Man, is correct oursuccessors will be devoid of genitalia. Seemslike everlast- ing life won't be much fun, DAVID WATKINS Bournemouth ‘And Tsay itagain Barleby'stake on the impor- tance of repetition in the work place Marchasth) isthe best column I've read in The Econo- mmistin years. Hard to put my Enger on wy, bu certainly the bestcolumn Ive readin The Economistinyeas. MAXCAPRONI Chicago‘The Economist Apl 12th 2025 BY INVITATION Martin Chavez To keep on top of at, learn from how finance and railways are policed, says the Alphabet board member [Aiiitptcis: nerzutzoence advances relents, presenting both immense potential and profound risks. How do we pro- mote AI innovation while effectively managing those risks? Current thinking on how to regulate at largely emphasises go- veming the models themselves. California's now-vetoed t Safety Bill, for example, would have held developers liable for system misuse and requited a “kill switch’. Developing safe, ethical and efficient at systems inevitably demands standards and testing, AS with any tool, we need guidelines for what qualifies as acceptable. But as Alen Turing proved mathematically nearly a century ago, no approach guarantees the correctness of any sufficiently complex program, Furthermore, the advent of DeepSeek, from China, suggests the world has arrived at a tipping point where open-source models proliferate beyond any governance. Governance must begin with a practical approach that ad- dresses the junctions where these models interact with—and in fluence—the outside world. History offers lessons. Consider the i9th-century railway boom. Society achieved safety not by regulating each train, but by ‘managing track junctions where accidents most often occurred. Financial markets adopted this approach more recently. The Securities and Exchange Commission's Market Access Rule doesn’t constrain the internal workings of traders. Instead, regula tors emphasise the points of contact with the market, mandating capital-adequacy checks before algorithms enter each order into the stockmarket. Similary, the Federal Reserve doesn’t micro ‘manage banks. Rather, it requires them to simulate their cashflow, income statement and balance-sheet nine quarters into the future, demonstrating sufficient capital to lend and make markets in se- verely adverse scenarios ofthe regulator's choosing. In each case, _governing the points of interaction proved more effective than at= tempting to control the intemal complexity of each system. ‘Apply the same logic to At, Policymakers and regulators must shift their attention to the interfaces through which at systems and agents connect with critical infrastructure, financial markets, health care and other sensitive domains. They should design and set clear, testable standards for how at systems interact with the real world, including stress tests, audit trails, attestations and cer- tifications. We want as little regulation as possible, and no less. OF course, with so many potential uses, no single approach handles al risk, Forexample, a chatbot might manipulate humans, or an AT system might create a novel bioweapon. Governance at the system-interface level alone cannot manage such risks. We ‘must also build resilience through simulation and scenario plan- ning, like the stress tests for monitoring banks. Standards must sit ona continuum to meet the complexity and risk of at systems, Rather than set rules with arbitrary thresholds, move those thresholds dynamically to reflect the probability and severity of negative interactions with the outside world. “To truly hamess the power of al, governance must also align corporate incentives with public safety. Collaborative governance and open communication can build trust and pave a way that pro- motes safety and innovation—using fines, penalties and other ‘mechanisms to encourage developers to prioritise safety ‘The European Union's Artificial Intelligence Act offers some ideas for interface-level standards by implementing governance ‘based om the level of risk. But the act also leaves important ques- tions unanswered and at the same time overreaches. Whereas high-risk systems face outright bans or strict obligations, those deemed low-risk—generaly systems meant for personal use—re- ‘main minimally regulated, despite thei very teal influence. {As the demand for AI tools outstrips supply, America has the opportunity to lead in establishing global At standards that pro- mise security without stifling innovation. But it must act quickly and decisively if itis to remain competitive. ‘Adopting standards at the system-interface level constitutes an important first step. Over-regulation remains a big concern— but the inconsistent approach America has taken thus farhas only served asan obstacle for developers and users alike, slowing down creation with incompatible state-by-state rules. With clear, con- sistent and comprehensive governance, however, America could accelerate domestic innovation and become the giobal hub for A. ‘A public-private partnership will be necessary to build a flex- ible, forward-thinking and resilient framework. This partnership can develop system-interface standards for AI systems and guar antee that foreign-