India Strategy April 2025

India FY26 State Budgets: Analysis of Top 20 states

Capex and fiscal consolidation -
A great recipe for sustainable growth!

Pankaj Chhaochharia Dhirendra Tiwari

+91 22 6911 3340 +91 22 6911 3436
pankaj.chhaochharia@antiquelimited.com dhirendra.tiwari@antiquelimited.com
 INDEX
Slide No. Slide No.
Capex and fiscal consolidation—A great recipe for West Bengal ……………………….………..………………………………………... 39
sustainable growth! …………………………………………………………….……… 2 Rajasthan ……………………….………..…………………………………………….. 40
Aggregated States Fiscal Arithmetic .…………………..………………..…... 3 Telangana ………..……………………….………..………………………………….. 41
#1 – Are aggregate state budgets inflationary in nature? .............. 9 Andhra Pradesh ……………………….………..……………………….………….. 42
#2 – Are aggregated state budget numbers credible? ............…….. 12 Madhya Pradesh …………….………..……………………………………..…….. 43
#3 – Freebies vs. capex? ...................................................……….….. 18 Kerala ……………………….………..………………………………………………….. 44
#4 – How do states fare on multiple fiscal metrics? ............…..…… 26 Delhi ……………………….………..………………………………………………….... 45
#5 – Is there a possibility of a ratings upgrade? ………………..…….... 28 Haryana ……………………….………..…………………………………………..….. 46
#6 – A fine balance between capex and fiscal Odisha ……………………….………..………………………………………………... 47
consolidation….............................................................................. 30
Bihar ……………………….………..……………………………………………….….. 48
State-wise Fiscal Arithmetic
Maharashtra ……………………….………..…………………………………..…... 34 Punjab ……………………….………..………………………………………………... 49
Tamil Nadu ……………………….………..………………………………………….. 35 Assam ……………………….………..………………………………………..……….. 50
Uttar Pradesh ……………………….………..……………………………………... 36 Chhattisgarh ……………………….………..……………………………………….. 51
Karnataka ……………………….………..………………………………………….... 37 Jharkhand ……………………….………..…………………………………….…….. 52
Gujarat ……………………….………..………………………………………………... 38 Uttarakhand ……………………….………..……………………………………….. 53

1
Capex and fiscal consolidation—A great recipe for sustainable growth!
States budgets have been announced over the last three month. Key takeaways from our analysis of 20 states that account for 97% of GDP are: a)
The budgets are overall non-inflationary in nature given the relatively lower revenue expenditure, fiscal consolidation, and higher capex; b) State
Nominal GDP growth is assumed to be 11.6% YoY (higher than the Union Government’s estimate of 10.1% YoY); c) The quality of state expenditure
has improved given higher capex outlay of ~18% YoY or 2.7% of GDP (highest in the last decade); and d) Ratings upgrade may be postponed as the
combined fiscal deficit for FY26 is targeted at 7.1% of GDP (higher than S&P’s global criteria of below 7% GDP on structural basis). Overall, FY26
government budgets (center & states) provide i) Support to the overall capex cycle (FY26BE government capex growth is ~14% YoY); ii) Negative for
consumption demand thus helping keep inflation benign; and iii) Fiscal consolidation may also keep bond yields benign.
Key takeaways from our analysis of FY26 state budgets (20 states comprising ~97% of GDP) are:
 Non-inflationary in nature: Overall, states budgets are non-inflationary in nature given a) Reduction in disposable income as state revenue
growth is expected to be 14.7% YoY (against 14.4% YoY last year), while revenue expenditure (excl. interest) growth of 9.3% YoY (against 19.6%
YoY last year); b) Capacity creation given capital outlay increase from 2.5% to 2.7% of GDP; and c) Fiscal consolidation from 3.4% to 3.1% of GDP.
 Are budget numbers credible? States are expecting a revenue receipt of 12.6% YoY (against FY25RE of 16.2% YoY) due to slower growth in grants
and taxes from the center. The assumption about states own tax revenue growth of 14.2% YoY appears to be a mixed bag. Nominal GDP growth is
assumed to be higher at 11.6% YoY (against Center’s est. of 10.1% YoY), while tax buoyancy assumed realistically at 1.2 (similar to last 4-yr. avg.).
 Freebies vs. capex: States are targeting to improve the quality of expenditure given the relatively stronger growth of capital outlay (of 18.3% YoY
as against revenue expenditure growth of 9.7% YoY). Within capex, the focus lies on minority welfare, water supply & sanitation, education &
healthcare. Urban development may see de-growth while transportation is likely to see a single-digit growth. Within revenue expenditure, higher
growth is seen in non-development activities like (interest & pension) and minority welfare. However, energy (subsidy payment to discoms) and
urban development is likely to see de-growth and flat growth respectively.
 How do states fare on fiscal metrics? Based on the nine fiscal metrics (1: Development exp. as a % of total exp.; 2: Capital outlay as a % of GDSP;
3: States’ own revenue as a % of GSDP; 4: States’ own revenue as a % of total exp.; 5: Fiscal deficit as a % of GSDP; 6: Revenue deficit as a % of
GSDP; 7: Interest payment as a % of revenue receipts; 8: Outstanding liabilities as a % of GSDP; 9: Difference between GSDP growth & interest
growth rate), states that fare high are Jharkhand, Delhi, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana. However, states that fare poorly are Punjab, West
Bengal, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu.
 Is there a possibility of a ratings upgrade? We believe that a rating upgrade may get postponed as combined fiscal deficit for FY26 is targeted at
7.1% of GDP (higher than S&P Global criteria of a combined fiscal deficit below 7% of GDP on a structural basis) and global tariff related
uncertainty may have a negative bearing on domestic growth. However, benign inflation outlook poses an upside risk to our call.
 Government budget (center + state) provides great recipe for sustainable growth! Overall, FY26 government budgets (center & states) provide i)
Support to the overall capex cycle (FY26BE government capex growth is ~14% YoY); ii) Negative for consumption demand thus helping keep
inflation benign; and iii) Fiscal consolidation may also keep bond yields benign.
2
# Aggregated States Fiscal Arithmetic

3
Dual focus on fiscal consolidation & capex!

FY25RE % FY26BE % FY24 % of FY25BE % of FY25RE % of FY26BE % of

INR bn FY24 FY25BE FY25RE FY26BE
growth growth GDP GDP GDP GDP
Total Receipts 36,993 43,994 42,951 48,601 16.1 13.2 12.6 13.5 13.1 13.3
Revenue Receipts 36,760 43,549 42,714 48,106 16.2 12.6 12.5 13.4 13.1 13.2
Tax Revenue 29,525 34,097 33,710 38,045 14.2 12.9 10.0 10.5 10.3 10.4
State's Own tax revenue 18,981 22,675 21,697 24,785 14.3 14.2 6.5 7.0 6.6 6.8
Share in Central Taxes 10,544 11,422 12,013 13,260 13.9 10.4 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.6
Non-Tax Revenue 7,236 9,453 9,004 10,062 24.4 11.7 2.5 2.9 2.8 2.8
State’s Own Non-Tax revenue 3,008 3,674 3,458 4,063 15.0 17.5 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1
Grants from Center 4,228 5,779 5,546 5,999 31.2 8.2 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.6
Capital Receipts (excl borrowings) 232 444 237 495 2.1 108.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total Expenditure 45,418 53,981 53,995 59,852 18.9 10.8 15.4 16.6 16.5 16.4
Revenue Expenditure 37,822 44,686 44,809 49,158 18.5 9.7 12.9 13.8 13.7 13.5
Social service 14,910 18,462 18,780 20,538 26.0 9.4 5.1 5.7 5.7 5.6
Economic Services 8,768 9,740 10,074 10,547 14.9 4.7 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.9
Non-Development 12,959 15,122 14,597 16,562 12.6 13.5 4.4 4.7 4.5 4.5
Grant in Aid & Contribution 1,185 1,362 1,357 1,512 14.6 11.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Capital Expenditure (excl borrowings) 7,595 9,296 9,186 10,693 20.9 16.4 2.6 2.9 2.8 2.9
Capital Outlay 7,001 8,438 8,305 9,825 18.6 18.3 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.7
Social service 2,173 2,750 2,783 3,459 28.1 24.3 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9
Economic service 4,449 5,141 5,020 5,739 12.8 14.3 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6
General services 379 547 502 627 32.5 24.9 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
Loans & Advances given by state 595 858 878 868 47.6 -1.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2
Revenue deficit 1,062 1,136 2,095 1,052 97.3 -49.8 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.3
Fiscal Deficit 8,425 9,988 11,044 11,251 31.1 1.9 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.1
Primary Deficit 3,476 4,490 5,545 5,048 59.5 -9.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.4
GDP 2,94,258 3,24,684 3,27,304 3,65,388 11.2 11.6 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
State Total Debt 76,753 85,599 86,258 96,401 12.4 11.8 26.1 26.4 26.4 26.4

Source: Budget documents, Antique

Note: Actual data used till FY24; Revised estimates for FY25 & Budget estimates for FY26; State data includes 20 states contributing ~97% of GDP

4
FY26 state-wise fiscal arithmetic

Maha- Tamil Uttar West Andhra Madhya Other

INR bn Karnataka Gujarat Rajasthan Telangana Kerala Haryana Bihar Total
rashtra Nadu Pradesh Bengal Pradesh Pradesh States
Total Receipts 5,638 3,323 6,659 2,926 2,738 2,683 2,950 2,180 2,308 2,964 1,535 1,332 2,614 8,750 48,601
Revenue Receipts 5,610 3,316 6,627 2,925 2,516 2,661 2,945 2,180 2,297 2,909 1,524 1,278 2,608 8,712 48,106
Tax Revenue 4,774 2,789 5,502 2,600 2,079 2,195 2,285 1,666 1,753 2,208 1,201 1,077 1,980 5,935 38,045
State's Own tax revenue 3,877 2,209 2,950 2,082 1,585 1,125 1,427 1,090 1,454 1,093 915 921 595 3,461 24,785
Share in Central Taxes 897 580 2,552 518 494 1,070 857 576 299 1,115 286 155 1,385 2,475 13,260
Non-Tax Revenue 836 527 1,125 325 437 465 661 514 544 701 322 201 628 2,777 10,062
State’s Own Non-Tax revenue 331 288 246 165 237 94 269 191 316 214 191 103 82 1,336 4,063
Grants from Center 505 238 879 160 200 372 392 323 228 487 131 98 546 1,441 5,999
Capital Receipts (excl borrowings) 28 8 32 2 222 22 4 0 11 56 12 54 5 38 495
Total Expenditure 7,000 4,393 7,573 3,831 3,322 3,415 3,796 2,979 2,848 3,753 1,986 1,692 2,941 10,323 59,852
Revenue Expenditure 6,069 3,732 5,832 3,117 2,319 3,014 3,255 2,512 2,270 2,903 1,795 1,484 2,520 8,338 49,158
Social service 2,493 1,290 2,023 1,204 967 1,589 1,411 1,184 1,110 1,218 584 615 1,167 3,682 20,538
Economic Services 1,196 760 1,111 758 517 463 887 569 677 691 183 307 495 1,933 10,547
Non-Development 2,021 1,414 2,428 1,091 826 948 958 758 483 843 868 562 858 2,505 16,562
Grant in Aid & Contribution 358 269 270 64 9 14 0 0 0 150 160 0 0 218 1,512
Capital Expenditure (excl borrowings) 932 661 1,742 713 1,003 401 541 468 579 851 191 208 421 1,985 10,693
Capital Outlay 845 572 1,652 682 955 393 537 406 365 825 169 162 405 1,856 9,825
Social service 139 152 609 245 375 197 233 158 105 368 33 58 94 693 3,459
Economic service 626 400 927 381 546 182 289 242 241 433 134 88 253 997 5,739
General services 80 20 116 56 34 14 15 6 19 24 2 15 59 166 627
Loans & Advances given by state 87 89 89 32 48 7 4 61 214 26 22 46 15 128 868
Revenue deficit 459 416 -795 193 -197 353 310 332 -27 -6 271 206 -88 -374 1,052
Fiscal Deficit 1,362 1,070 914 904 584 732 846 799 540 789 450 360 327 1,573 11,251
Primary Deficit 666 361 143 448 272 242 431 449 346 503 132 95 77 882 5,048
GDP 49,394 35,678 30,775 30,701 29,820 20,318 19,898 18,250 18,003 16,945 14,271 13,475 10,973 56,886 3,65,388
State Total Debt 9,322 9,300 9,039 7,647 5,077 7,717 7,264 6,388 5,055 5,304 4,820 3,528 4,065 11,876 96,401

Source: Budget documents, Antique

Note: Actual data used till FY24; Revised estimates for FY25 & Budget estimates for FY26; State data includes 20 states contributing ~97% of GDP

5
FY26 state-wise growth rates

Maha- Tamil Uttar West Andhra Madhya Other

Growth YoY (%) Karnataka Gujarat Rajasthan Telangana Kerala Haryana Bihar Total
rashtra Nadu Pradesh Bengal Pradesh Pradesh States
Total Receipts 4.6 11.6 20.9 13.5 17.3 17.8 12.1 23.8 14.2 11.5 14.6 16.9 6.7 11.1 13.2
Revenue Receipts 4.6 12.8 21.0 13.5 8.6 16.9 12.2 23.8 13.7 11.0 14.6 13.5 6.7 11.2 12.6
Tax Revenue 6.4 13.7 25.1 14.4 8.1 12.1 15.4 13.3 12.1 12.0 12.1 12.2 7.8 10.7 12.9
State's Own tax revenue 5.5 14.6 41.2 15.4 7.3 12.7 18.5 14.8 12.4 13.5 12.1 12.4 9.6 10.4 14.2
Share in Central Taxes 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.6 11.4 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 12.0 10.5 7.0 11.2 10.4
Non-Tax Revenue -4.9 8.2 4.4 6.6 11.6 46.7 2.3 77.3 19.2 8.0 25.1 21.1 3.4 12.2 11.7
State's Own Non-Tax Revenue 9.7 2.5 83.5 13.8 16.5 184.8 -0.1 172.4 22.5 -2.3 6.9 17.8 12.2 11.0 17.5
Grants from Center -12.4 16.0 -6.9 0.0 6.2 30.7 4.0 47.0 14.9 13.2 66.6 24.8 2.2 13.3 8.2
Capital Receipts (excl borrowings) 4.8 -80.7 -1.7 13.3 1,133.3 899.2 -20.6 5.0 1,714.6 41.7 8.9 290.0 4.2 -6.4 108.7
Total Expenditure 4.2 9.9 17.3 12.4 17.0 13.5 13.9 19.4 14.4 14.3 11.1 15.5 -10.2 9.4 10.8
Revenue Expenditure 7.8 9.6 19.4 9.8 10.3 11.3 10.5 12.0 15.7 11.2 10.7 13.8 -10.4 7.7 9.7
Social service -1.7 11.4 18.4 4.6 7.4 14.9 10.3 23.6 36.8 10.4 11.9 19.8 -17.5 10.3 9.4
Economic Services 8.4 1.9 2.5 6.5 12.0 15.4 16.0 1.3 -5.1 5.1 51.7 11.3 -15.1 2.3 4.7
Non-Development 23.9 12.3 31.0 20.2 12.9 3.5 6.2 4.8 10.5 13.4 2.5 9.1 5.4 8.1 13.5
Grant in Aid & Contribution -0.2 11.4 12.5 -7.3 5.1 50.4 14.6 0.0 43.6 21.1 0.0 12.6 11.4
Capital Expenditure (excl borrowings) -14.6 11.7 10.9 25.2 36.0 33.7 39.7 86.5 9.8 26.3 14.8 29.3 -8.9 16.9 16.4
Capital Outlay -11.1 22.4 11.9 25.3 36.1 35.0 40.2 68.8 10.3 27.1 20.4 26.8 -7.2 18.7 18.3
Social service -30.0 -12.5 22.5 44.9 38.9 68.3 26.3 35.7 17.9 33.3 13.7 18.1 -1.4 33.8 24.3
Economic service -8.4 41.8 7.9 7.5 31.1 10.6 52.3 100.7 9.0 22.5 22.1 25.5 -10.3 9.1 14.3
General services 16.1 72.5 -4.1 170.6 121.8 43.5 71.4 64.8 -8.1 22.0 22.0 90.1 -1.9 26.2 24.9
Loans & Advances given by state -37.8 -26.6 -5.1 24.0 35.9 -9.9 -6.9 511.3 8.8 4.5 -15.8 39.0 -38.5 -4.5 -1.1
Revenue deficit 72.9 -10.4 34.8 -26.3 -7.8 -18.4 -2.9 -31.3 -53.5 -39.8 -7.1 15.4 -124.0 285.5 -49.8
Fiscal Deficit 2.5 5.2 -3.6 9.0 15.5 0.2 20.8 8.9 15.5 26.4 0.7 10.6 -60.3 0.8 1.9
Primary Deficit -12.6 -12.1 -60.8 -3.2 24.4 -7.6 47.9 5.9 19.3 41.4 -11.9 25.1 -87.2 1.0 -9.0
GSDP 9.0 14.5 11.9 7.3 11.6 11.9 16.8 13.6 11.6 12.7 11.9 11.0 12.4 11.8 11.6
State Total Debt 11.1 12.9 6.8 11.6 13.3 9.2 13.2 13.6 12.0 14.7 10.5 11.2 12.3 13.8 11.8

Source: Budget documents, Antique

Note: Actual data used till FY24; Revised estimates for FY25 & Budget estimates for FY26; State data includes 20 states contributing ~97% of GDP

6
FY26 state-wise fiscal arithmetic as % of GSDP

Maha- Tamil Uttar West Andhra Madhya Other

As a % of GSDP Karnataka Gujarat Rajasthan Telangana Kerala Haryana Bihar Total
rashtra Nadu Pradesh Bengal Pradesh Pradesh States
Total Receipts 11.4 9.3 21.6 9.5 9.2 13.2 14.8 11.9 12.8 17.5 10.8 9.9 23.8 15.4 13.3
Revenue Receipts 11.4 9.3 21.5 9.5 8.4 13.1 14.8 11.9 12.8 17.2 10.7 9.5 23.8 15.3 13.2
Tax Revenue 9.7 7.8 17.9 8.5 7.0 10.8 11.5 9.1 9.7 13.0 8.4 8.0 18.0 10.4 10.4
State's Own tax revenue 7.8 6.2 9.6 6.8 5.3 5.5 7.2 6.0 8.1 6.5 6.4 6.8 5.4 6.1 6.8
Share in Central Taxes 1.8 1.6 8.3 1.7 1.7 5.3 4.3 3.2 1.7 6.6 2.0 1.2 12.6 4.4 3.6
Non-Tax Revenue 1.7 1.5 3.7 1.1 1.5 2.3 3.3 2.8 3.0 4.1 2.3 1.5 5.7 4.9 2.8
State's Own Non-Tax Revenue 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.5 1.4 1.0 1.8 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.7 2.3 1.1
Grants from Center 1.0 0.7 2.9 0.5 0.7 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.3 2.9 0.9 0.7 5.0 2.5 1.6
Capital Receipts (excl borrowings) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1
Total Expenditure 14.2 12.3 24.6 12.5 11.1 16.8 19.1 16.3 15.8 22.2 13.9 12.6 26.8 18.1 16.4
Revenue Expenditure 12.3 10.5 18.9 10.2 7.8 14.8 16.4 13.8 12.6 17.1 12.6 11.0 23.0 14.7 13.5
Social service 5.0 3.6 6.6 3.9 3.2 7.8 7.1 6.5 6.2 7.2 4.1 4.6 10.6 6.5 5.6
Economic Services 2.4 2.1 3.6 2.5 1.7 2.3 4.5 3.1 3.8 4.1 1.3 2.3 4.5 3.4 2.9
Non-Development 4.1 4.0 7.9 3.6 2.8 4.7 4.8 4.2 2.7 5.0 6.1 4.2 7.8 4.4 4.5
Grant in Aid & Contribution 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4
Capital Expenditure (excl borrowings) 1.9 1.9 5.7 2.3 3.4 2.0 2.7 2.6 3.2 5.0 1.3 1.5 3.8 3.5 2.9
Capital Outlay 1.7 1.6 5.4 2.2 3.2 1.9 2.7 2.2 2.0 4.9 1.2 1.2 3.7 3.3 2.7
Social service 0.3 0.4 2.0 0.8 1.3 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.6 2.2 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.9
Economic service 1.3 1.1 3.0 1.2 1.8 0.9 1.5 1.3 1.3 2.6 0.9 0.7 2.3 1.8 1.6
General services 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.2
Loans & Advances given by state 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2
Revenue deficit 0.9 1.2 -2.6 0.6 -0.7 1.7 1.6 1.8 -0.2 0.0 1.9 1.5 -0.8 -0.7 0.3
Fiscal Deficit 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.0 3.6 4.3 4.4 3.0 4.7 3.2 2.7 3.0 2.8 3.1
Primary Deficit 1.3 1.0 0.5 1.5 0.9 1.2 2.2 2.5 1.9 3.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 1.6 1.4
GSDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
State Total Debt 18.9 26.1 29.4 24.9 17.0 38.0 36.5 35.0 28.1 31.3 33.8 26.2 37.0 20.9 26.4

Source: Budget documents, Antique

Note: Actual data used till FY24; Revised estimates for FY25 & Budget estimates for FY26; State data includes 20 states contributing ~97% of GDP

7
Expect a marginal miss in FY25RE

Implied Mar'25 as Avg of Mar as % of

INR bn 11MFY25 Mar'25 Implied FY25BE FY25RE
% of FY25RE Full Year

Total receipts 33,814 8,506 43,349 42,320 20.1 17.3

Revenue receipts 33,758 8,325 42,908 42,084 19.8 17.0
Tax revenue 28,590 4,528 33,509 33,118 13.7 15.2
Non-Tax revenue 5,173 2,032 9,399 7,205 28.2 22.0
Capital receipts excl borrowings 55 181 441 237 76.6 48.3
Recovery of loans and advances 55 173 389 227 75.9 49.6
Other receipts 1 9 52 9 92.6 18.6

Total Expenditure 40,721 12,628 53,271 53,349 23.7 20.0

Revenue expenditure 34,940 9,322 44,077 44,262 21.1 18.0
Interest payments 4,231 1,241 5,470 5,472 22.7 17.2
Capital expenditure 5,781 3,306 9,194 9,087 36.4 30.5
Capital expenditure (excl. Loans & advances) 5,271 2,989 8,379 8,260 36.2 30.0
Loans and advances 511 317 815 827 38.3 32.4

Fiscal Deficit 6,907 4,121 9,922 11,029 37.4 33.5

Fiscal Deficit as % of GSDP 2.2 1.3 3.2 3.5 1.3 0.9
Revenue Deficit (-ve=surplus) 1,181 997 1,169 2,178 45.8 172.3
Revenue Deficit as % of GSDP 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.2
GSDP 3,14,951 3,14,951 3,12,331 3,14,951

Note: Bihar Dec-Feb’25 data is not yet published so we have taken average % of respective month
Average and Max is of last 15 years FY10 – FY24 excluding FY20 (Covid-19 year)

Source: Budget documents, Antique

Note: Actual data used till FY24; Revised estimates for FY25 & Budget estimates for FY26; State data includes 19 states contributing ~93% of GDP

8
#1 – Are aggregate state budgets inflationary in nature?

9
Non-inflationary in nature (1)
Revenue exp as % of GDP likely to decline Focus is on capex
2.9 14.5 Break up of expenditure (%)
14.2 2.7 100%
2.7

12
14.0

13

14

14
14

14

14
15

16

16
16

17
2.5 2.5 90%
13.5
YoY %

2.3

YoY %
13.5 80%
2.1 13.0
70%

88
87

86

86
86

86

86
85

84

84
1.9

84

83
12.5
1.7 60%

1.5 12.0
50%

FY25RE

FY26BE
FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25RE

FY26BE
FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24
Capital Outlay as % of GDP Revenue Exp as % of GDP Revenue Exp Capital Outlay

Revenue deficit is likely to improve States like Odisha, Jharkhand & UP are having the highest revenue surplus
1.0 FY26 Revenue deficit as % of GSDP

2.7
0.9 3.0

1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
0.8

1.2
2.0

0.9
0.6
0.7 0.6

0.3
0.6 1.0

0.0
0.6
YoY %

0.5 0.0
0.5

0.0
0.5

-0.2
0.4 0.4 -1.0

-0.4
-0.6
0.4

-0.7
-0.7
0.3

-0.8
0.3 0.3
0.3 0.2 -2.0
0.2 0.1 -3.0

Uttar Pradesh -2.6

Jharkhand -2.6
Odisha-3.0
0.1 0.0 -4.0

Gujarat
Uttarakhand

Madhya Pradesh

Total
Karnataka
Maharashtra

Haryana
Rajasthan

Andhra Pradesh
Kerala
Punjab
Assam
Bihar
NCT of Delhi

Chhattisgarh
Telangana

Tamil Nadu

West Bengal
0.0
FY25RE

FY26BE
FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

Revenue Deficit as % of GSDP Average

Source: Budget documents, Antique
Note: Actual data used till FY24; Revised estimates for FY25 & Budget estimates for FY26; State data includes 20 states contributing ~97% of GDP

10
Non-inflationary in nature (2)
Primary deficit to improve but still above average 8 states have above average primary deficit
2.5 FY26 Primary deficit as % of GSDP
2.0 3.5

3.0
2.0

2.6
1.8 3.0

2.5
1.7

2.2
2.2
2.1
2.5

1.9
1.5 1.4 1.4
YoY %

1.2 2.0

1.5
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.0

1.2
1.5

1.0
1.0
0.9 0.9

0.9
0.9
1.0

0.8
0.8

0.8
0.7
0.7
1.0

0.5
0.6
0.5
0.5 0.5
0.0

Gujarat
Uttar Pradesh

Haryana

Kerala

Punjab

Uttarakhand
Maharashtra
Total
Karnataka

Rajasthan

Andhra Pradesh
Odisha
Madhya Pradesh
Assam
Bihar

Jharkhand
NCT of Delhi

Tamil Nadu

West Bengal

Telangana

Chhattisgarh
0.0

FY25RE

FY26BE
FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24
Primary Deficit as % of GSDP Average

Fiscal deficit likely to breach FRBM limit marginally 9 states are likely to breach 3.0% limit set under FRBM Act in FY26
4.5 FY26 Fiscal deficit as % of GSDP

4.7
5.0

4.4
4.0

4.3
4.0 4.5

3.8
3.8
3.7
3.6
4.0

3.2
3.2
3.5

3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.9
3.4 3.5

2.8
3.5

2.7
YoY %

3.0
3.1 3.1

2.0
2.0
2.5
3.0 2.9 2.0
2.7

1.0
2.6 2.6 1.5
2.5
2.4 2.4 1.0
2.5
0.5
0.0

Chhattisgarh
Gujarat

Haryana

Telangana

Odisha

Assam
Jharkhand

Uttarakhand

Uttar Pradesh

Tamil Nadu

Punjab
Rajasthan
Andhra Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
NCT of Delhi

Bihar

Total

West Bengal
Maharashtra

Karnataka

Kerala
2.0
FY26BE
FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25RE

Fiscal Deficit as % of GSDP Average

Source: Budget documents, Antique
Note: Actual data used till FY24; Revised estimates for FY25 & Budget estimates for FY26; State data includes 20 states contributing ~97% of GDP

11
#2 – Are aggregated state budget numbers credible?

12
Mixed bag!
Tax buoyancy assumption looks realistic Uttar Pradesh & Karnataka growth assumptions are too optimistic
2.0 FY26 Tax Buoyancy
1.8

3.5
4.0
1.6 1.5
1.4 3.5
1.4 1.2 1.3 1.2 3.0
1.1

2.1
1.2 2.5
1.0

1.5
2.0

1.4
0.8 0.8

1.2
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
0.8

1.0
1.0
1.5

0.9
0.8
0.6

0.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6 1.0

0.4
0.1
0.4 0.3 0.5
0.2 0.0

Uttar Pradesh
Karnataka

Total
Haryana
Rajasthan
Andhra Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh

Kerala

Punjab
Odisha

Uttarakhand
Maharashtra

Assam
Bihar
Gujarat
NCT of Delhi
Chhattisgarh

West Bengal
Telangana

Tamil Nadu

Jharkhand
0.0

FY25RE

FY26BE
FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24
Tax Buoyancy

Note: Tax Buoyancy is ratio of growth rate of State’s Own Tax Revenue to GSDP
GSDP growth assumptions look aggressive Especially for states like Rajasthan, Assam, Tamil Nadu
20.0 FY26 GSDP Growth

16.8
15.2
18.0

14.5
13.6
13.5
16.0

12.7
12.4
15.0

12.0
12.0
11.9
11.9
11.9
11.6
11.6
11.6
11.0
11.0
14.0

10.1
9.9
12.0

9.0
10.0
10.0

7.3
8.0
5.0 6.0
4.0
0.0 2.0
0.0
Assam

Bihar

Gujarat
Rajasthan

Andhra Pradesh
Uttarakhand
Madhya Pradesh

Odisha
Chhattisgarh
West Bengal
Kerala
Uttar Pradesh

Total

Haryana
NCT of Delhi
Punjab
Jharkhand
Maharashtra
Karnataka
Tamil Nadu

Telangana
-5.0
FY25RE

FY26BE
FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

Total GSDP Average

Source: Budget documents, Antique
Note: Actual data used till FY24; Revised estimates for FY25 & Budget estimates for FY26; State data includes 20 states contributing ~97% of GDP

13
States’ own tax revenue: Modest for Maharashtra; aggressive for UP
Taxes on property & Taxes on Sales, Trade Taxes and duties on
FY26 (All figures State's Own tax revenue capital transactions State Excise
etc.
Taxes on Vehicles
electricity
Goods and services tax
in % except All
States) State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY %
% share growth % share growth % share growth % share growth % share growth % share growth % share growth
All States 24,785 14.2 3,326 16.0 3,334 15.0 4,896 11.2 1,379 13.3 702 5.9 10,939 15.3
Maharashtra 15.6 5.5 20.7 6.2 9.8 6.8 14.4 4.5 11.3 4.9 22.8 12.9 16.1 4.9
Uttar Pradesh 11.9 41.2 11.7 25.4 18.9 29.2 9.3 43.8 10.2 21.0 5.0 16.2 11.9 56.8
Tamil Nadu 8.9 14.6 7.9 13.9 3.9 9.2 14.4 7.4 9.7 12.0 6.0 5.9 8.6 22.7
Karnataka 8.4 15.4 8.6 17.4 12.0 9.6 5.4 12.2 10.9 20.0 2.1 -26.6 8.4 15.0
Gujarat 6.4 7.3 7.5 21.8 0.1 25.0 6.7 -1.8 4.5 9.2 17.3 3.1 7.4 7.7
Telangana 5.9 12.4 5.7 29.9 8.3 7.8 7.7 12.0 6.2 0.7 1.1 8.4 4.7 11.9
Rajasthan 5.8 18.5 4.6 19.6 5.9 16.0 6.3 14.0 7.2 16.0 5.0 12.9 5.8 22.1
West Bengal 4.5 12.7 4.5 25.7 6.8 10.3 2.8 8.9 4.2 42.9 5.0 9.6 4.6 8.5
Madhya Pradesh 4.4 13.5 4.7 14.1 5.2 12.9 4.6 17.6 4.1 11.8 7.1 10.3 3.9 12.4
Andhra Pradesh 4.4 14.8 4.1 25.3 8.1 27.2 4.3 12.8 4.1 21.7 0.7 -83.0 3.7 12.2
Haryana 3.7 12.4 5.0 17.9 4.2 11.2 2.6 8.1 4.4 14.3 1.0 7.7 3.8 12.1
Kerala 3.7 12.1 2.5 10.6 0.9 6.8 6.9 10.3 5.4 8.0 1.6 996.5 3.5 12.5
NCT of Delhi 2.8 16.0 2.7 18.4 2.1 25.0 1.6 11.1 2.7 12.1 0.0 3.7 15.5
Odisha 2.7 10.0 1.1 6.3 2.9 12.4 3.3 12.4 2.2 12.4 6.6 9.0 2.6 8.1
Punjab 2.6 9.2 2.1 12.9 3.4 8.2 1.7 4.4 3.4 8.7 5.3 7.0 2.5 9.7
Bihar 2.4 9.6 2.7 10.5 0.0 2.3 11.9 3.0 10.0 1.4 35.5 3.1 7.7
Chhattisgarh 2.2 16.9 1.5 19.1 3.7 19.0 1.8 35.4 2.2 20.0 8.5 9.1 1.7 10.0
Jharkhand 1.4 4.1 1.0 3.1 0.9 7.1 1.9 3.4 1.7 4.8 2.3 10.3 1.4 3.3
Assam 1.4 2.0 0.4 -12.6 1.3 4.3 1.8 -1.4 1.5 14.0 0.3 164.9 1.6 2.2
Uttarakhand 1.0 8.5 0.9 4.3 1.5 12.4 0.5 -0.8 1.2 10.6 0.8 4.8 1.0 10.0

Source: Budget documents, Antique

Note: Actual data used till FY24; Revised estimates for FY25 & Budget estimates for FY26; State data includes 20 states contributing ~97% of GDP

14
State revenue receipt assumptions have been realistic in past
Budget Actual Actual as % of Budgeted
PEFA Scoring
States FY22 2022-2023 2023-2024 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024
All States 31,871 35,795 40,106 30,085 34,151 36,760 94.4 95.4 91.7 B
Andhra Pradesh 1,772 1,912 2,062 1,506 1,578 1,738 85.0 82.5 84.3 D
Assam 890 997 1,141 816 897 915 91.7 90.0 80.2 D
Bihar 1,863 1,967 2,123 1,588 1,727 1,933 85.3 87.8 91.1 D
Chhattisgarh 793 891 1,060 797 939 1,035 100.4 105.4 97.6 A
Gujarat 1,680 1,820 2,077 1,668 1,994 2,228 99.3 109.5 107.2 B
Haryana 877 1,064 1,091 781 892 1,013 89.0 83.8 92.8 D
Jharkhand 767 830 983 697 802 879 90.9 96.7 89.4 D
Karnataka 1,723 1,899 2,384 1,958 2,291 2,333 113.6 120.6 97.9 C
Kerala 1,310 1,341 1,354 1,166 1,327 1,245 89.1 99.0 91.9 D
Madhya Pradesh 1,647 1,952 2,257 1,859 2,040 2,340 112.9 104.5 103.7 A
Maharashtra 3,690 4,034 4,495 3,333 4,057 4,306 90.3 100.6 95.8 B
NCT Delhi 531 613 628 493 627 568 92.9 102.3 90.5 C
Odisha 1,256 1,640 1,845 1,531 1,505 1,796 121.9 91.8 97.3 D
Punjab 953 954 989 782 876 892 82.1 91.9 90.2 D
Rajasthan 1,843 2,150 2,340 1,839 1,950 2,033 99.8 90.7 86.9 D
Tamil Nadu 2,025 2,314 2,705 2,075 2,437 2,646 102.5 105.3 97.8 A
Telangana 1,761 1,930 2,166 1,275 1,594 1,693 72.4 82.6 78.2 D
Uttar Pradesh 4,183 4,992 5,709 3,710 4,172 4,658 88.7 83.6 81.6 D
Uttarakhand 442 515 571 431 491 506 97.5 95.4 88.7 B
West Bengal 1,867 1,980 2,126 1,782 1,955 2,003 95.4 98.7 94.2 B

Source: PEFA, Budget documents, Antique

Note: Actual data used till FY24; Revised estimates for FY25 & Budget estimates for FY26; State data includes 20 states contributing ~97% of GDP
Scoring Mechanism: A - Actual receipt falls within 97% to 106% of budget estimate in at least two of the last three years;
B - Actual receipt falls within 94% to 112% of budget estimate in at least two of the last three years
C - Actual receipt falls within 92% to 116% of budget estimate in at least two of the last three years
D - Performance is below the "C" level

15
The case is similar for revenue expenditure
Budget estimate Actual Actual as % of Budgeted
PEFA Scoring
States 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024
All States 33,401 36,975 40,764 31,235 34,894 37,822 93.5 94.4 92.8 B
Andhra Pradesh 1,822 2,083 2,285 1,592 2,013 2,124 87.4 96.6 93.0 B
Assam 844 964 1,113 825 1,018 942 97.8 105.7 84.6 B
Bihar 1,771 1,920 2,078 1,592 1,840 1,905 89.9 95.8 91.7 B
Chhattisgarh 830 884 1,025 750 853 1,147 90.3 96.5 111.9 B
Gujarat 1,668 1,810 1,987 1,604 1,795 1,893 96.2 99.2 95.3 A
Haryana 1,169 1,162 1,261 984 1,064 1,132 84.2 91.6 89.8 C
Jharkhand 758 763 847 628 667 767 82.9 87.4 90.6 C
Karnataka 1,874 2,046 2,509 2,094 2,156 2,426 111.8 105.4 96.7 B
Kerala 1,479 1,571 1,594 1,462 1,420 1,426 98.8 90.4 89.5 B
Madhya Pradesh 1,730 1,989 2,253 1,811 1,999 2,215 104.7 100.5 98.3 A
Maharashtra 3,792 4,278 4,656 3,497 4,076 4,444 92.2 95.3 95.4 A
NCT Delhi 518 537 570 460 482 503 88.9 89.9 88.3 C
Odisha 1,196 1,457 1,578 1,096 1,310 1,488 91.7 89.9 94.3 B
Punjab 1,039 1,079 1,234 966 1,137 1,174 93.0 105.3 95.1 B
Rajasthan 2,081 2,385 2,589 2,098 2,265 2,422 100.8 95.0 93.6 B
Tamil Nadu 2,612 2,842 3,081 2,540 2,800 3,097 97.3 98.5 100.5 A
Telangana 1,694 1,893 2,117 1,368 1,534 1,685 80.8 81.0 79.6 D
Uttar Pradesh 3,951 4,561 5,024 3,376 3,800 4,298 85.4 83.3 85.6 C
Uttarakhand 440 490 527 389 438 473 88.4 89.3 89.6 C
West Bengal 2,134 2,263 2,436 2,102 2,228 2,260 98.5 98.5 92.8 A

Source: PEFA, Budget documents, Antique

Note: Actual data used till FY24; Revised estimates for FY25 & Budget estimates for FY26; State data includes 20 states contributing ~97% of GDP
Scoring Mechanism: A - Actual expenditure falls within 95% to 105% of budget estimate in at least two of the last three years
B - Actual expenditure falls within 90% to 110% of budget estimate in at least two of the last three years
C - Actual expenditure falls within 85% to 115% of budget estimate in at least two of the last three years
D - Performance is below the "C" level

16
The miss in terms of capital outlay has been sharp in the past
Budget Actual Actual as % of Budgeted
PEFA Scoring
States 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024
All States 5,968 6,758 7,940 4,943 5,552 7,001 82.8 82.2 88.2 D
Andhra Pradesh 312 307 311 164 72 233 52.5 23.6 75.1 D
Assam 195 184 238 201 160 214 103.3 87.1 90.0 B
Bihar 308 297 293 237 315 365 76.9 106.0 124.6 D
Chhattisgarh 138 152 187 105 133 154 75.9 87.4 82.6 D
Gujarat 308 359 701 282 355 557 91.5 98.9 79.4 B
Haryana 93 223 185 110 117 159 118.5 52.2 86.2 D
Jharkhand 97 166 212 94 140 206 97.1 84.4 96.8 A
Karnataka 414 436 510 479 573 521 115.8 131.6 102.2 D
Kerala 126 149 146 142 140 136 112.7 94.0 93.0 B
Madhya Pradesh 407 457 541 407 444 565 100.2 97.3 104.6 A
Maharashtra 556 652 739 467 616 726 83.9 94.5 98.2 B
NCT Delhi 106 124 112 83 81 69 78.7 65.1 61.3 D
Odisha 258 387 517 227 333 433 88.1 86.1 83.7 C
Punjab 141 110 104 80 67 47 56.7 60.7 45.8 D
Rajasthan 242 348 381 242 198 266 99.7 56.9 70.0 D
Tamil Nadu 422 430 444 370 395 405 87.7 91.8 91.3 B
Telangana 290 297 375 289 179 439 99.4 60.1 117.0 D
Uttar Pradesh 1,138 1,239 1,475 714 930 1,106 62.8 75.1 75.0 D
Uttarakhand 90 108 131 75 82 110 84.0 75.6 83.6 D
West Bengal 328 331 340 175 220 290 53.3 66.4 85.1 D

Source: PEFA, Budget documents, Antique

Note: Actual data used till FY24; Revised estimates for FY25 & Budget estimates for FY26; State data includes 20 states contributing ~97% of GDP
Scoring Mechanism: A - Actual expenditure falls within 95% to 105% of budget estimate in at least two of the last three years
B - Actual expenditure falls within 90% to 110% of budget estimate in at least two of the last three years
C - Actual expenditure falls within 85% to 115% of budget estimate in at least two of the last three years
D - Performance is below the "C" level

17
#3 Freebies vs. capex?

18
Focus is on capex
Revenue expenditure to slightly decline as % of GDP Capital outlay seeing an uptick - highest among the last decade
15.0 2.9
2.7
2.7
14.0 13.7 2.5 2.5
13.5
2.5 2.4 2.4

YoY %
13.0 2.3 2.2 2.2
2.2 2.3
YoY %

2.1 2.1
2.1 2.0
12.0 2.0
1.9
11.0 1.7

1.5
10.0

FY25RE

FY26BE
FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24
FY25RE

FY26BE
FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24
Capital Outlay as % of GDP Average
Revenue Exp as % of GDP Average
Capex momentum to continue Capex share seeing a further uptick - highest in the last decade
35.0 Break up of expenditure (%)

30.0 100%

12
13
25.0

14

14
14

14

14
15

16

16
16

17
18.3 90%
20.0
YoY %

15.0 80%
9.7
10.0
5.0 70%

88
87

86

86
86

86

86
85

84

84
84

83
0.0
60%
-5.0
-10.0 50%
FY26BE
FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25RE

FY25RE

FY26BE
FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24
Capital Outlay Revenue Exp
Revenue Exp Capital Outlay
Source: Budget documents, Antique
Note: Actual data used till FY24; Revised estimates for FY25 & Budget estimates for FY26; State data includes 20 states contributing ~97% of GDP

19
Capital outlay to grow by 18% YoY
FY24 FY25 FY26
INR bn FY23 FY24 FY25RE FY26BE
% growth % growth % growth

Capital Outlay 5,552 7,001 8,305 9,825 26.1 18.6 18.3

Social service 1,652 2,173 2,783 3,459 31.5 28.1 24.3

Water supply & sanitation 460 930 1,059 1,432 102.0 13.9 35.3

Medical & public health 282 309 430 530 9.6 39.4 23.2

Education, sports, art & culture 220 329 383 501 49.4 16.5 30.9

Urban development 386 317 444 393 -17.7 40.0 -11.5

Welfare of SC,ST & OBC 102 113 186 274 11.3 63.6 47.6

Others 203 175 281 328 -13.9 60.6 16.8

Economic service 3,628 4,449 5,020 5,739 22.6 12.8 14.3

Rural related expenditure 1,555 1,988 2,047 2,404 27.8 3.0 17.4

Agriculture & allied services 248 309 300 315 24.7 -3.1 5.0

Rural development 358 375 458 549 4.9 21.9 19.9

Irrigation & flood control 949 1,303 1,290 1,540 37.3 -1.0 19.4

Transport 1,548 1,725 2,088 2,224 11.5 21.0 6.5

Energy 270 379 476 562 40.3 25.6 18.1

Others 255 358 409 549 40.0 14.3 34.3

General services 272 379 502 627 39.2 32.5 24.9

Source: Budget documents, Antique

Note: Actual data used till FY24; Revised estimates for FY25 & Budget estimates for FY26; State data includes 20 states contributing ~97% of GDP

20
Water supply, education & minorities are focus areas within social services
Water supply & Medical & Public Education, Sports, Welfare of SC, ST &
FY26 (All figures Capital Outlay Social Service Urban development
sanitation Health Arts & Culture OBC
in % except All
States) State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY %
% share growth % share growth % share growth % share growth % share growth % share growth % share growth
All States 9,825 18.3 3,459 24.3 1,432 35.3 530 23.2 501 30.9 393 -11.5 274 47.6
Uttar Pradesh 16.8 11.9 17.6 22.5 16.5 21.8 16.9 43.0 17.4 20.6 15.5 10.3 3.8 35.9
Gujarat 9.7 36.1 10.8 38.9 16.5 37.1 9.4 28.2 11.5 33.5 0.0 0.0
Maharashtra 8.6 -11.1 4.0 -30.0 0.0 50.0 7.1 -41.6 1.7 49.5 6.7 -71.0 16.9 163.4
Madhya Pradesh 8.4 27.1 10.7 33.3 12.9 47.2 7.5 42.8 10.8 4.9 13.9 10.0 9.5 53.4
Karnataka 6.9 25.3 7.1 44.9 8.7 46.1 4.0 60.6 3.3 1.9 6.1 172.9 18.8 37.8
Odisha 6.6 17.4 7.0 34.0 6.0 15.8 8.6 24.0 10.4 222.7 1.6 -71.7 5.4 24.6
Tamil Nadu 5.8 22.4 4.4 -12.5 3.0 -37.0 1.3 -12.3 4.1 2.2 15.2 24.1 3.5 -7.2
Rajasthan 5.5 40.2 6.7 26.3 9.5 22.3 10.7 47.6 5.2 11.3 0.0 0.0
Andhra Pradesh 4.1 68.8 4.6 35.7 2.0 186.3 5.1 23.2 5.6 66.2 18.0 11.2 0.8 36.0
Bihar 4.1 -7.2 2.7 -1.4 1.2 74.4 1.9 -60.4 9.2 23.3 0.0 1.6 36.9
West Bengal 4.0 35.0 5.7 68.3 9.4 68.3 5.1 68.3 2.3 68.3 0.0 7.9 68.3
Telangana 3.7 10.3 3.0 17.9 0.8 0.0 3.7 4.3 2.3 -6.3 0.0 20.9 38.6
Assam 3.0 -13.4 2.9 9.2 3.0 236.2 2.7 -13.6 3.0 -21.0 3.3 -46.8 2.8 -2.8
Chhattisgarh 2.7 14.6 3.5 16.6 3.4 28.1 3.1 103.8 2.1 57.9 8.1 -1.2 2.9 25.4
Jharkhand 2.3 18.5 2.4 64.5 2.9 124.5 1.9 114.0 2.3 40.9 1.9 -5.4 3.0 16.6
NCT of Delhi 1.8 254.6 1.8 161.0 0.0 6.5 369.5 3.2 295.2 2.2 -22.0 0.2 41.8
Kerala 1.7 20.4 1.0 13.7 0.8 -29.0 0.6 -11.9 0.9 25.7 0.0 0.0
Haryana 1.6 26.8 1.7 18.1 1.6 2.1 2.4 -1.6 1.6 54.9 2.1 48.7 0.0 0.0
Uttarakhand 1.5 25.4 1.4 51.5 1.4 362.5 0.4 3.3 1.7 11.7 2.2 27.0 1.0 53.2
Punjab 1.0 23.4 1.0 2.8 0.4 11.9 1.2 83.1 1.3 13.3 3.3 -30.2 1.0 121.2

Source: Budget documents, Antique

Note: Actual data used till FY24; Revised estimates for FY25 & Budget estimates for FY26; State data includes 20 states contributing ~97% of GDP

21
Rural, irrigation & energy are focus areas within economic services
Agriculture & allied Irrigation and flood Rural related
FY26 (All figures Economic Services Transport Energy
services
Rural development
control expenditure
in % except All
States) State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY %
% share growth % share growth % share growth % share growth % share growth % share growth % share growth
All States 5,739 14.3 2,224 6.5 562 18.1 315 5.0 549 19.9 1,540 19.4 2,404 17.4
Uttar Pradesh 16.2 7.9 18.9 11.3 39.4 -2.3 14.0 27.3 17.2 4.7 6.2 17.9 9.7 13.7
Maharashtra 10.9 -8.4 13.5 -18.4 0.4 22.7 26.9 3.5 7.2 59.2 12.0 -5.1 12.8 2.5
Gujarat 9.5 31.1 9.8 12.0 10.1 31.5 6.0 32.3 2.8 3.4 9.8 40.2 7.7 35.4
Madhya Pradesh 7.5 22.5 4.9 34.9 15.2 77.3 7.5 23.5 7.7 38.3 9.5 -1.3 8.9 7.2
Tamil Nadu 7.0 41.8 10.4 27.1 9.0 3973.1 7.1 6.8 8.7 20.2 2.8 22.8 4.7 18.3
Karnataka 6.6 7.5 3.1 -14.4 1.2 20.0 3.2 19.2 0.2 -55.6 13.4 21.4 9.0 20.3
Odisha 6.4 6.2 8.1 -7.2 3.7 -15.5 1.7 4.2 3.6 151.9 8.0 34.7 6.2 42.1
Rajasthan 5.0 52.3 6.3 46.2 5.8 1813.5 3.2 46.3 2.5 22.2 5.0 15.8 4.2 19.1
Bihar 4.4 -10.3 2.1 -38.2 3.4 -59.3 1.3 -36.3 17.1 10.1 5.0 47.4 7.2 21.6
Andhra Pradesh 4.2 100.7 1.2 38.4 0.0 2601.6 1.1 177.7 4.2 182.7 10.1 81.4 7.6 91.3
Telangana 4.2 9.0 1.5 9.6 0.0 1.1 18.3 7.0 13.9 8.2 9.1 7.0 10.3
West Bengal 3.2 10.6 3.0 31.3 3.9 4.3 12.1 -33.6 0.0 2.4 55.1 3.1 -7.6
Assam 2.7 -23.1 4.4 -12.2 3.7 -45.6 2.1 -29.9 0.0 -100.0 1.0 -45.8 0.9 -41.8
Kerala 2.3 22.1 1.6 22.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 9.2 0.0 0.9 9.2
Jharkhand 2.3 1.0 2.5 0.5 0.0 -100.0 3.0 5.2 8.7 -3.4 1.1 16.9 3.1 1.8
Chhattisgarh 2.2 12.0 3.3 11.5 1.6 21.2 1.4 14.6 1.3 7.9 1.9 35.2 1.7 27.0
NCT of Delhi 1.7 359.6 2.5 227.7 0.0 0.3 -5.0 1.8 485.3 0.2 203.9 0.6 272.7
Haryana 1.5 25.5 1.6 19.4 0.3 24.8 3.2 77.6 0.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 13.6
Uttarakhand 1.3 8.7 0.6 -8.7 2.3 50.9 3.9 7.3 5.1 6.4 0.0 -36.9 1.7 5.5
Punjab 1.0 28.8 0.8 10.5 0.2 277.9 1.0 391.6 0.9 -2.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 10.7

Source: Budget documents, Antique

Note: Actual data used till FY24; Revised estimates for FY25 & Budget estimates for FY26; State data includes 20 states contributing ~97% of GDP

22
Non-developmental revenue expenditure to grow by a healthy 13.5% YoY
INR bn FY23 FY24 FY25RE FY26BE FY24 % growth FY25 % growth FY26 % growth
Revenue Expenditure 34,894 37,822 44,809 49,158 8.4 18.5 9.7
Social service 14,014 14,910 18,780 20,538 6.4 26.0 9.4
Education, sports, art & culture 6,074 6,345 7,439 8,066 4.5 17.2 8.4
Social security & welfare 1,980 2,157 3,395 3,641 8.9 57.4 7.3
Medical & public health 1,706 2,013 2,557 2,772 18.0 27.1 8.4
Welfare of SC, ST & OBC 1,000 1,089 1,476 1,631 8.9 35.6 10.5
Urban development 1,008 852 1,014 1,020 -15.5 19.0 0.6
Others 2,247 2,455 2,898 3,408 9.2 18.1 17.6
Economic Services 7,785 8,768 10,074 10,547 12.6 14.9 4.7
Rural Related 4,003 4,563 5,464 5,789 14.0 19.7 5.9
Agriculture & allied services 2,097 2,684 3,127 3,221 28.0 16.5 3.0
Irrigation & flood control 347 387 454 496 11.5 17.3 9.2
Rural development 1,559 1,492 1,883 2,071 -4.3 26.2 10.0
Energy 2,176 2,315 2,465 2,350 6.4 6.5 -4.6
Transport & Communications 711 740 769 827 4.1 4.0 7.4
Others 895 1,151 1,376 1,581 28.6 19.6 14.9
Non-Development 12,013 12,959 14,597 16,562 7.9 12.6 13.5
Interest payments & servicing of debt 4,539 4,949 5,499 6,203 9.0 11.1 12.8
Pension 4,260 4,464 4,842 5,596 4.8 8.5 15.6
Others 3,215 3,546 4,256 4,763 10.3 20.0 11.9
Grant in Aid & Contribution 1,082 1,185 1,357 1,512 9.5 14.6 11.4

Source: Budget documents, Antique

Note: Actual data used till FY24; Revised estimates for FY25 & Budget estimates for FY26; State data includes 20 states contributing ~97% of GDP

23
Strong social spending likely in Delhi, Telangana, Jharkhand, AP & UP
Education, Sports, Social security & Medical & Public Welfare of SC, ST &
FY26 (All figures Revenue Exp Social Service Urban development
Arts & Culture welfare Health OBC
in % except All
States) State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY %
% share growth % share growth % share growth % share growth % share growth % share growth % share growth
All States 49,158 9.7 20,538 9.4 8,066 8.4 3,641 7.3 2,772 8.4 1,631 10.5 1,020 0.6
Maharashtra 12.3 7.8 12.1 -1.7 13.1 10.4 12.7 -2.9 9.2 -5.9 15.0 -16.0 18.9 -16.2
Uttar Pradesh 11.9 19.4 9.8 18.4 11.8 22.0 8.7 14.0 8.9 27.8 3.8 15.4 19.5 9.7
Tamil Nadu 7.6 9.6 6.3 11.4 6.9 16.7 8.1 2.4 6.0 6.4 2.9 1.1 1.9 148.4
Rajasthan 6.6 10.5 6.9 10.3 8.2 7.5 5.3 20.5 7.5 10.4 1.7 7.6 10.3 8.7
Karnataka 6.3 9.8 5.9 4.6 4.9 11.1 11.8 1.8 5.6 20.7 7.0 11.2 0.6 -56.2
West Bengal 6.1 11.3 7.7 14.9 6.1 14.9 0.0 6.9 14.9 32.8 14.9 0.0
Madhya Pradesh 5.9 11.2 5.9 10.4 5.7 14.6 8.0 0.5 6.8 10.5 4.5 3.1 3.9 0.3
Bihar 5.1 -10.4 5.7 -17.5 7.3 -22.9 2.1 -32.7 5.5 -0.9 2.3 -1.2 10.7 -19.2
Andhra Pradesh 5.1 12.0 5.8 23.6 4.1 8.1 1.2 38.9 6.0 11.8 0.0 4.6 -26.9
Gujarat 4.7 10.3 4.7 7.4 5.3 9.3 3.4 -9.4 6.4 6.9 4.3 12.9 0.0
Telangana 4.6 15.7 5.4 36.8 2.8 11.5 5.2 6.9 3.0 16.4 16.6 49.1 12.5 46.6
Odisha 4.1 7.6 4.6 1.9 4.0 3.1 6.7 3.6 6.3 -2.4 2.9 7.1 5.2 23.1
Kerala 3.7 10.7 2.8 11.9 3.2 11.6 4.2 4.5 3.8 14.4 1.4 27.1 0.0
Haryana 3.0 13.8 3.0 19.8 2.5 6.4 5.0 28.9 2.9 9.9 0.5 12.6 5.3 46.4
Chhattisgarh 2.8 7.6 2.9 8.8 3.2 13.3 2.5 6.6 3.3 -1.2 0.3 26.1 2.4 -14.2
Punjab 2.8 2.5 1.8 4.9 2.3 11.5 2.3 3.1 2.1 9.6 0.5 -19.4 0.2 -81.1
Assam 2.4 -0.3 2.6 1.8 3.1 4.5 2.6 9.9 2.5 -6.2 1.7 2.0 1.4 -32.3
Jharkhand 2.3 12.4 2.6 25.9 2.1 18.7 6.5 39.5 2.3 6.1 1.6 10.1 0.0
NCT of Delhi 1.5 31.4 2.2 45.5 2.2 12.4 2.8 134.8 3.3 21.0 0.1 -0.4 2.3 93.2
Uttarakhand 1.2 6.3 1.1 -1.0 1.4 4.0 0.8 3.1 1.6 8.8 0.2 -22.9 0.3 -48.4

Source: Budget documents, Antique

Note: Actual data used till FY24; Revised estimates for FY25 & Budget estimates for FY26; State data includes 20 states contributing ~97% of GDP

24
Expect strong spending on economic services by Kerala, Rajasthan & WB
Transport & Agriculture & allied Irrigation and flood Rural related
FY26 (All figures Economic Services Energy
Communications services
Rural development
control expenditure
in % except All
States) State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY % State-wise YoY %
% share growth % share growth % share growth % share growth % share growth % share growth % share growth
All States 10,547 4.7 2,350 -4.6 827 7.4 3,221 3.0 2,131 12.0 496 9.2 5,848 6.7
Maharashtra 11.3 8.4 11.0 27.5 16.0 15.3 10.0 -18.9 14.3 26.3 6.2 19.7 11.3 -1.0
Uttar Pradesh 10.5 2.5 11.9 -13.3 10.8 9.0 6.1 16.6 12.5 12.0 27.9 17.1 10.3 14.7
Tamil Nadu 7.2 1.9 6.5 -33.1 5.9 27.4 6.7 6.4 3.9 12.4 9.1 35.6 5.9 11.0
Rajasthan 8.4 16.0 15.7 12.4 5.9 20.0 4.8 16.5 11.1 19.7 6.6 12.9 7.3 17.9
Karnataka 7.2 6.5 11.1 16.3 10.1 4.5 6.8 -2.3 5.2 6.6 3.2 -8.9 5.9 0.0
West Bengal 4.4 15.4 0.8 -17.9 3.2 38.2 11.6 15.1 0.0 4.3 28.4 6.8 15.7
Madhya Pradesh 6.6 5.1 10.9 -0.4 2.5 5.9 6.7 18.4 5.1 -7.5 5.1 34.3 6.0 9.7
Bihar 4.7 -15.1 4.9 -29.2 5.5 -10.8 2.4 -12.6 9.7 -7.2 3.2 -0.1 5.1 -8.3
Andhra Pradesh 5.4 1.3 5.5 -29.6 7.8 -2.9 4.3 127.1 7.7 36.5 1.9 -57.1 5.3 53.2
Gujarat 4.9 12.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 29.9 0.0 6.8 -4.5 2.7 20.5
Telangana 6.4 -5.1 8.3 34.5 7.2 3.5 8.2 -35.4 3.2 3.0 1.7 1.9 5.8 -29.5
Odisha 5.2 13.3 0.5 299.2 6.8 10.2 6.4 12.7 8.2 7.9 7.9 0.5 7.2 9.4
Kerala 1.7 51.7 0.0 0.0 2.4 16.8 2.8 215.2 0.0 2.3 60.9
Haryana 2.9 11.3 2.6 -23.3 5.0 -10.1 2.7 39.6 3.1 33.7 6.0 17.5 3.1 33.4
Chhattisgarh 4.1 0.1 2.3 -29.7 1.9 43.5 8.2 4.2 3.2 -2.4 1.9 29.1 5.8 3.3
Punjab 2.8 -11.3 3.2 -33.1 0.7 6.7 4.4 0.3 0.7 39.5 2.5 6.0 2.9 3.2
Assam 1.6 -11.1 0.2 31.5 2.0 -8.8 1.7 -0.3 2.3 -30.3 2.7 -16.5 2.0 -17.1
Jharkhand 2.7 6.4 2.8 -5.5 0.9 4.6 1.6 9.5 5.5 9.3 1.0 9.9 3.0 9.3
NCT of Delhi 1.0 11.7 1.6 0.2 6.3 6.9 0.1 17.2 0.0 16.5 0.5 -8.2 0.1 2.1
Uttarakhand 0.9 8.6 0.0 112.5 1.5 -7.2 1.2 15.6 1.3 0.6 1.4 10.7 1.2 9.0

Source: Budget documents, Antique

Note: Actual data used till FY24; Revised estimates for FY25 & Budget estimates for FY26; State data includes 20 states contributing ~97% of GDP

25
#4 – How do states fare on multiple fiscal metrics?

26
Antique’s state ranking – Jharkhand, Delhi & Odisha top the charts
Debt
FY26BE Quality of expenditure Revenue mobilization Fiscal prudence Debt index
Sustainability

% growth of
Interest
State Own Outstanding GSDP - %
Developmental Capital State Own Fiscal Revenue payment/ FY26BE FY25RE
States Revenue/ Liabilities/ growth of
Exp /Total Exp Outlay/GDSP Revenue/GSDP deficit/GSDP deficit/GSDP Revenue Overall Rank* Overall Rank*
Total Exp GSDP Interest
Receipts
payments

Jharkhand 78.7 4.1 11.0 44.7 2.0 -2.6 5.6 27.0 19.6 1 2
Delhi 81.5 1.3 5.1 72.8 1.0 -0.7 2.8 0.0 26.7 2 4
Odisha 79.4 6.1 11.9 47.2 3.2 -3.0 2.8 12.7 -6.2 3 1
Chhattisgarh 77.7 4.1 12.0 46.1 3.8 -0.4 6.8 29.6 10.7 4 7
Telangana 82.4 2.0 9.8 62.2 3.0 -0.2 8.4 28.1 2.4 5 3
Gujarat 73.9 3.2 6.1 54.8 2.0 -0.7 12.4 17.0 2.9 6 5
Uttarakhand 59.8 3.4 6.6 37.8 2.9 -0.6 11.2 24.9 8.2 7 11
Uttar Pradesh 62.8 5.4 10.4 42.2 3.0 -2.6 11.6 29.4 -20.4 8 11
Maharashtra 64.9 1.7 8.5 60.1 2.8 0.9 12.4 18.9 -13.9 9 6
Madhya Pradesh 72.9 4.9 7.7 34.8 4.7 0.0 9.8 31.3 6.2 10 8
Assam 65.8 4.0 5.8 29.5 3.7 0.0 10.0 25.7 23.1 11 16
Karnataka 68.4 2.2 7.3 58.7 2.9 0.6 15.6 24.9 -17.2 11 9
Total 68.8 2.7 7.9 48.2 3.1 0.3 12.9 26.4 -1.2 11 9
Haryana 65.9 1.2 7.6 60.6 2.7 1.5 20.8 26.2 4.8 14 13
Rajasthan 74.4 2.7 8.5 44.7 4.3 1.6 14.1 36.5 15.3 15 15
Bihar 68.8 3.7 6.2 23.0 3.0 -0.8 9.6 37.0 -0.5 16 17
Tamil Nadu 61.3 1.6 7.0 56.8 3.0 1.2 21.4 26.1 -2.4 17 14
Andhra Pradesh 74.3 2.2 7.0 43.0 4.4 1.8 16.1 35.0 0.5 18 19
Kerala 48.1 1.2 7.8 55.7 3.2 1.9 20.9 33.8 4.9 19 18
West Bengal 71.4 1.9 6.0 35.7 3.6 1.7 18.4 38.0 7.3 20 21
Punjab 52.2 1.2 8.5 51.5 3.8 2.7 22.4 46.8 5.8 21 20

Source: Budget documents, Antique

*Note: Overall rank is based on simple average of Ranks of the above mentioned 9 ratios

27
#5 – Is there a possibility of a ratings upgrade?

28
Unlikely as FY26 combined fiscal deficit is likely to be >7% of GDP
Combined fiscal deficit to further consolidate to 7.1% of GDP Capex thrust by government continues (at 6.8% of GDP)
As % of GDP
As % of GDP 10.0
15.0
9.0
13.0 7.8
8.0 7.3
6.6 6.8
11.0 7.0 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.4
5.9 2.6 5.9 6.0
6.0 2.3 0.9 1.1 1.1
9.0 1.2
5.0 1.9 2.4 2.4 2.5 1.8
2.5
7.0 2.6 2.9
12.4 4.0 2.8
3.1 3.3 2.4
5.0 3.0 2.3
8.7 8.6 8.1 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.2
6.8 6.8 7.1 7.8 7.1
3.0 6.6 5.8 5.7 2.0
2.4 2.9 2.7 2.7
1.0 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.8
1.0
0.0
-1.0

FY25RE

FY26BE
FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY26BE
FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25RE
Center Capex State Capex IEBR (excl Food)

Inflation has subsided below 4% RBI MPC FY26 CPI forecast of 4% YoY
9.0 YoY % 4.6 YoY %
4.4
8.0 4.4
7.0
4.2
6.0 4.0
4.0 3.9
5.0
3.8
4.0 3.8
3.6
3.0 3.6
2.0
3.4
1.0
Mar-19

Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20

Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21

Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22

Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23

Sep-23
Dec-23
Mar-24

Sep-24
Dec-24
Mar-25
Jun-19

Jun-20

Jun-21

Jun-22

Jun-23

Jun-24

3.2

3.0
Q1FY26 Q2FY26 Q3FY26 Q4FY26 FY26
India CPI Core CPI CPI ex vegetable
Source: Budget documents, Antique
Note: Actual data used till FY24; Revised estimates for FY25 & Budget estimates for FY26; State data includes 20 states contributing ~97% of GDP. Center and IEBR calculated with India GDP & States data is with
Combined State GDP of 20 States contributing to 96% of total GDP

29
 #6 Government (Center + State) –
A fine balance between capex and fiscal consolidation

30
A fine balance between capex and fiscal consolidation

Center + State (INR bn) Growth (YoY %) As % of GDP

INR bn FY23 FY24 FY25RE FY26BE FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26

Total Receipts 53,275 60,653 68,874 77,566 12.9 13.8 13.6 12.6 19.6 20.5 21.3 21.7

Revenue Receipts 52,456 59,823 68,047 76,312 12.6 14.0 13.7 12.1 19.3 20.3 21.0 21.4

Tax Revenue 46,971 52,797 59,280 66,419 15.6 12.4 12.3 12.0 17.2 17.9 18.3 18.6

Non Tax Revenue (excl Grants) 5,484 7,026 8,768 9,893 -7.9 28.1 24.8 12.8 2.0 2.4 2.7 2.8

Capital Receipts excl borrowings 819 830 827 1,255 33.4 1.3 -0.3 51.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4

Total Expenditure 76,743 84,624 94,109 1,03,004 13.4 10.3 11.2 9.5 28.2 28.7 29.0 28.9

Revenue Expenditure 63,902 68,537 76,243 82,602 10.1 7.3 11.2 8.3 23.5 23.2 23.5 23.1

Interest Payments 13,824 15,588 16,878 18,966 12.3 12.8 8.3 12.4 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.3

Pensions 6,676 6,847 7,594 8,362 14.3 2.6 10.9 10.1 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3

Others 43,402 46,102 51,772 55,274 8.8 6.2 12.3 6.8 15.9 15.6 16.0 15.5

Capital Expenditure 12,841 16,087 17,866 20,402 33.7 25.3 11.1 14.2 4.7 5.4 5.5 5.7

Revenue Deficit 11,446 8,714 8,196 6,291 -0.2 -23.9 -5.9 -23.2 4.2 3.0 2.5 1.8

Fiscal Deficit 23,468 23,971 25,235 25,438 14.7 2.1 5.3 0.8 8.6 8.1 7.8 7.1

Primary Deficit 9,644 8,383 8,357 6,472 18.3 -13.1 -0.3 -22.6 3.5 2.8 2.6 1.8

GDP 2,72,407 2,95,357 3,24,114 3,56,979 16.1 8.4 9.7 10.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Outstanding Debt 2,24,948 2,45,479 2,68,001 2,93,189 11.7 9.1 9.2 9.4 82.6 83.1 82.7 82.1
Note: We have adjusted following for 20 sample states in our study
1. Grants from Center to State (FY26BE – INR 5,999 bn) is deducted from revenue receipts and revenue expenditure due to double counting.
2. Net Loans & Advances from Center to State (FY26BE – INR 1,502 bn) is deducted from Capital expenditure of Center as it is already a part of State Capex.
Source: Budget documents, Antique
Note: Actual data used till FY24; Revised estimates for FY25 & Budget estimates for FY26; State data includes 20 states contributing ~97% of GDP

31
Providing great recipe for sustainable growth
Combined (Center + State) Tax revenue expected to grow at 12% YoY However, Revenue expenditure to grow at relatively lower pace of 7% YoY

80 35.0 80 25.0

70 30.0 70
20.0
60 25.0 60
50 20.0 50 15.0

YoY %
INR trn

YoY %
INR trn
40 15.0
40
30 10.0 64 10.0
30 59
20 5.0 50 53
43 46
20
10 0.0 32 36 5.0
26 29
20 23 26 29 32 32 31 41 47 53 59 66 10 22 23
0 -5.0

FY25RE

FY26BE
FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24
0 0.0

FY25RE

FY26BE
FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24
Combined Tax Rev Combined Tax Rev YoY (%) - RHS Combined Rev exp (excl. Int.) Combined Rev exp (excl Int.) YoY (%) - RHS

Capital spending is likely to grow at a strong 14% YoY Expect fiscal consolidation to gain pace

25.0 40.0 As % of GDP

15.0
20.0 30.0
13.0
20.0
15.0 YoY % 11.0
10.0
INR trn

10.0 20.4 9.0

16.1 17.9 0.0
12.8 7.0
5.0 9.6 -10.0 12.4
6.6 7.7 6.6 7.5 7.6 7.2
4.8 5.0
0.0 -20.0 8.7 8.6 8.1
7.1 7.8 7.1
6.6 6.8 6.8
FY26BE
FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25RE

3.0 5.8 5.7

1.0

FY25RE

FY26BE
FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24
Combined Capex Combined Capex YoY (%) - RHS -1.0

Source: Budget documents, Antique

Note: Actual data used till FY24; Revised estimates for FY25 & Budget estimates for FY26; State data includes 20 states contributing ~97% of GDP

32
State-wise Fiscal Arithmetic

33
Maharashtra (13.3% of GDP)
Conservative tax assumptions; focus is on fiscal consolidation & revex
FY25RE % FY26BE % FY24 % of FY25BE % FY25RE % FY26BE % Deviation
INR bn FY24 FY25BE FY25RE FY26BE
growth growth GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP in FY25RE
Total Receipts 4,313 5,019 5,392 5,638 25.0 4.6 10.6 11.7 11.9 11.4 7.4
Revenue Receipts 4,306 4,995 5,365 5,610 24.6 4.6 10.6 11.7 11.8 11.4 7.4
Tax Revenue 3,737 4,200 4,486 4,774 20.1 6.4 9.2 9.8 9.9 9.7 6.8
State's Own tax revenue 3,024 3,430 3,675 3,877 21.5 5.5 7.5 8.0 8.1 7.8 7.1
Share in Central Taxes 713 769 812 897 13.9 10.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 5.5
Non-Tax Revenue 569 795 878 836 54.4 -4.9 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.7 10.5
State's Own Non-Tax Revenue 209 268 301 331 44.5 9.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 12.6
Grants from Center 360 527 577 505 60.1 -12.4 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.0 9.4
Capital Receipts 7 25 27 28 262.9 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 8.8
Recovery of loans & advances 7 25 27 28 262.9 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 8.8
Total Expenditure 5,219 6,123 6,720 7,000 28.8 4.2 12.9 14.3 14.8 14.2 9.8
Revenue Expenditure 4,444 5,195 5,630 6,069 26.7 7.8 11.0 12.1 12.4 12.3 8.4
Social service 1,892 2,167 2,537 2,493 34.1 -1.7 4.7 5.1 5.6 5.0 17.1
Economic Services 834 832 1,103 1,196 32.3 8.4 2.1 1.9 2.4 2.4 32.6
Non-Development 1,399 1,868 1,631 2,021 16.6 23.9 3.4 4.4 3.6 4.1 -12.7
Grant in Aid & Contribution 319 329 359 358 12.6 -0.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 9.3
Capital Expenditure 775 928 1,090 932 40.6 -14.6 1.9 2.2 2.4 1.9 17.5
Capital Outlay 726 853 950 845 30.9 -11.1 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.7 11.4
Social service 152 112 199 139 30.4 -30.0 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 78.0
Economic service 517 671 683 626 31.9 -8.4 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.8
General services 56 71 69 80 23.1 16.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 -2.6
Loans & Advances given by state 50 75 140 87 181.6 -37.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 87.1
Revenue deficit 138 201 265 459 92.9 72.9 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 32.3
Fiscal Deficit 906 1,104 1,329 1,362 46.7 2.5 2.2 2.6 2.9 2.8 20.4
Primary Deficit 419 496 762 666 81.8 -12.6 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.3 53.5
GSDP 40,558 42,797 45,315 49,394 11.7 9.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 5.9

Source: Budget documents, Antique

34
Tamil Nadu (8.9% of GDP)
Focus is on fiscal consolidation and capex, helped by strong GDP growth
FY25RE % FY26BE % FY24 % of FY25BE % FY25RE % FY26BE % Deviation
INR bn FY24 FY25BE FY25RE FY26BE
growth growth GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP in FY25RE
Total Receipts 2,686 3,038 2,979 3,323 10.9 11.6 9.9 9.6 9.6 9.3 -2.0
Revenue Receipts 2,646 2,990 2,939 3,316 11.1 12.8 9.7 9.5 9.4 9.3 -1.7
Tax Revenue 2,134 2,449 2,452 2,789 14.9 13.7 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.8 0.1
State's Own tax revenue 1,673 1,952 1,928 2,209 15.2 14.6 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 -1.2
Share in Central Taxes 461 498 525 580 13.9 10.5 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 5.5
Non-Tax Revenue 512 541 487 527 -5.0 8.2 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 -10.0
State's Own Non-Tax Revenue 259 307 281 288 8.6 2.5 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 -8.5
Grants from Center 253 234 205 238 -19.0 16.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 -12.1
Capital Receipts 40 48 39 8 -2.2 -80.7 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -17.8
Recovery of loans & advances 40 48 39 8 -2.1 -80.8 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -17.9
Total Expenditure 3,591 4,125 3,996 4,393 11.3 9.9 13.2 13.1 12.8 12.3 -3.1
Revenue Expenditure 3,097 3,483 3,404 3,732 9.9 9.6 11.4 11.0 10.9 10.5 -2.3
Social service 1,012 1,195 1,158 1,290 14.4 11.4 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.6 -3.1
Economic Services 716 747 746 760 4.2 1.9 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.1 -0.1
Non-Development 1,133 1,293 1,259 1,414 11.1 12.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 -2.7
Grant in Aid & Contribution 236 248 241 269 2.3 11.4 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 -2.9
Capital Expenditure 493 642 592 661 19.9 11.7 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.9 -7.8
Capital Outlay 405 477 468 572 15.5 22.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 -1.9
Social service 144 142 174 152 20.9 -12.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 22.4
Economic service 252 319 282 400 12.1 41.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.1 -11.6
General services 10 15 12 20 21.5 72.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -25.3
Loans & Advances given by state 88 165 121 89 36.4 -26.6 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 -27.0
Revenue deficit 451 493 465 416 3.0 -10.4 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.2 -5.7
Fiscal Deficit 904 1,087 1,017 1,070 12.5 5.2 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.0 -6.4
Primary Deficit 356 451 411 361 15.4 -12.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.0 -8.9
GSDP 27,216 31,596 31,160 35,678 14.5 14.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 -1.4

Source: Budget documents, Antique

35
Uttar Pradesh (8.4% of GDP)
Building in aggressive tax growth assumption!
FY25RE % FY26BE % FY24 % of FY25BE % FY25RE % FY26BE % Deviation
INR bn FY24 FY25BE FY25RE FY26BE
growth growth GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP in FY25RE
Total Receipts 4,676 6,101 5,509 6,659 17.8 20.9 18.4 24.4 20.0 21.6 -9.7
Revenue Receipts 4,658 6,068 5,476 6,627 17.6 21.0 18.3 24.3 19.9 21.5 -9.8
Tax Revenue 3,957 4,889 4,398 5,502 11.1 25.1 15.5 19.6 16.0 17.9 -10.0
State's Own tax revenue 1,931 2,701 2,090 2,950 8.2 41.2 7.6 10.8 7.6 9.6 -22.6
Share in Central Taxes 2,026 2,188 2,309 2,552 13.9 10.5 8.0 8.8 8.4 8.3 5.5
Non-Tax Revenue 701 1,179 1,078 1,125 53.9 4.4 2.7 4.7 3.9 3.7 -8.6
State's Own Non-Tax Revenue 142 244 134 246 -5.9 83.5 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.8 -45.1
Grants from Center 558 935 944 879 69.1 -6.9 2.2 3.7 3.4 2.9 1.0
Capital Receipts 18 33 33 32 79.8 -1.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Recovery of loans & advances 18 33 33 32 79.8 -1.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Total Expenditure 5,484 6,966 6,457 7,573 17.8 17.3 21.5 27.9 23.5 24.6 -7.3
Revenue Expenditure 4,298 5,327 4,886 5,832 13.7 19.4 16.9 21.3 17.8 18.9 -8.3
Social service 1,510 1,915 1,709 2,023 13.2 18.4 5.9 7.7 6.2 6.6 -10.8
Economic Services 1,003 1,087 1,084 1,111 8.1 2.5 3.9 4.4 3.9 3.6 -0.3
Non-Development 1,548 2,084 1,853 2,428 19.7 31.0 6.1 8.3 6.7 7.9 -11.1
Grant in Aid & Contribution 237 240 240 270 1.2 12.5 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.0
Capital Expenditure 1,186 1,640 1,571 1,742 32.5 10.9 4.7 6.6 5.7 5.7 -4.2
Capital Outlay 1,106 1,547 1,477 1,652 33.6 11.9 4.3 6.2 5.4 5.4 -4.5
Social service 394 572 497 609 25.9 22.5 1.5 2.3 1.8 2.0 -13.1
Economic service 643 841 859 927 33.6 7.9 2.5 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.1
General services 68 135 121 116 77.7 -4.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 -9.9
Loans & Advances given by state 80 92 94 89 17.2 -5.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 1.8
Revenue deficit -360 -741 -590 -795 63.9 34.8 -1.4 -3.0 -2.1 -2.6 -20.4
Fiscal Deficit 807 865 948 914 17.4 -3.6 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.0 9.6
Primary Deficit 319 303 365 143 14.3 -60.8 1.3 1.2 1.3 0.5 20.4
GSDP 25,479 24,991 27,514 30,775 8.0 11.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 10.1
Source: Budget documents, Antique

36
Karnataka (8.4% of GDP)
Aggressive tax revenue assumption to help fund higher revex and capex
FY25RE % FY26BE % FY24 % of FY25BE % FY25RE % FY26BE % Deviation
INR bn FY24 FY25BE FY25RE FY26BE
growth growth GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP in FY25RE
Total Receipts 2,337 2,634 2,580 2,926 10.4 13.5 9.1 9.2 9.0 9.5 -2.1
Revenue Receipts 2,333 2,632 2,578 2,925 10.5 13.5 9.1 9.2 9.0 9.5 -2.0
Tax Revenue 2,047 2,344 2,273 2,600 11.1 14.4 8.0 8.2 7.9 8.5 -3.0
State's Own tax revenue 1,636 1,900 1,805 2,082 10.3 15.4 6.4 6.6 6.3 6.8 -5.0
Share in Central Taxes 411 444 469 518 13.9 10.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 5.5
Non-Tax Revenue 286 288 305 325 6.5 6.6 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 5.9
State's Own Non-Tax Revenue 131 135 145 165 10.5 13.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 7.4
Grants from Center 155 153 160 160 3.0 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 4.6
Capital Receipts 3 3 2 2 -56.2 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -40.0
Recovery of loans & advances 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Expenditure 2,992 3,464 3,409 3,831 13.9 12.4 11.7 12.1 11.9 12.5 -1.6
Revenue Expenditure 2,426 2,905 2,839 3,117 17.0 9.8 9.5 10.2 9.9 10.2 -2.3
Social service 937 1,166 1,151 1,204 22.8 4.6 3.7 4.1 4.0 3.9 -1.3
Economic Services 670 712 712 758 6.3 6.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 0.0
Non-Development 757 959 907 1,091 19.9 20.2 2.9 3.3 3.2 3.6 -5.3
Grant in Aid & Contribution 62 68 69 64 10.5 -7.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8
Capital Expenditure 566 559 570 713 0.7 25.2 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.3 1.9
Capital Outlay 521 529 544 682 4.4 25.3 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.9
Social service 120 160 169 245 40.6 44.9 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 5.4
Economic service 371 349 354 381 -4.5 7.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.6
General services 30 20 21 56 -30.6 170.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 4.2
Loans & Advances given by state 45 30 26 32 -43.0 24.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -14.2
Revenue deficit 93 274 261 193 181.8 -26.3 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.6 -4.5
Fiscal Deficit 655 830 829 904 26.6 9.0 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 0.0
Primary Deficit 347 437 463 448 33.5 -3.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 5.9
GSDP 25,673 28,619 28,619 30,701 11.5 7.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0

Source: Budget documents, Antique

37
Gujarat (8.0% of GDP)
Focus on capex continues
FY25 % FY26 % FY24 % of FY25BE % FY25RE % FY26 % of Deviation
INR bn FY24 FY25BE FY25RE FY26BE
growth growth GDP of GDP of GDP GDP in FY25RE
Total Receipts 2,241 2,474 2,333 2,738 4.1 17.3 9.2 8.9 8.7 9.2 -5.7
Revenue Receipts 2,228 2,297 2,315 2,516 3.9 8.6 9.2 8.2 8.7 8.4 0.8
Tax Revenue 1,735 1,912 1,924 2,079 10.9 8.1 7.2 6.8 7.2 7.0 0.6
State's Own tax revenue 1,343 1,490 1,477 1,585 10.0 7.3 5.5 5.3 5.5 5.3 -0.9
Share in Central Taxes 392 422 447 494 13.9 10.6 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.7 5.9
Non-Tax Revenue 493 385 391 437 -20.5 11.6 2.0 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.8
State's Own Non-Tax Revenue 237 197 203 237 -14.3 16.5 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 3.2
Grants from Center 256 188 188 200 -26.3 6.2 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.3
Capital Receipts 14 178 18 222 30.9 1133.3 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.7 -89.9
Recovery of loans & advances 14 178 18 222 30.9 1133.3 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.7 -89.9
Total Expenditure 2,476 2,994 2,839 3,322 14.6 17.0 10.2 10.7 10.6 11.1 -5.2
Revenue Expenditure 1,893 2,198 2,102 2,319 11.0 10.3 7.8 7.9 7.9 7.8 -4.4
Social service 787 875 901 967 14.5 7.4 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.2 2.9
Economic Services 433 511 461 517 6.4 12.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 -9.7
Non-Development 667 806 732 826 9.7 12.9 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.8 -9.2
Grant in Aid & Contribution 6 7 8 9 46.0 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.4
Capital Expenditure 583 795 737 1,003 26.4 36.0 2.4 2.8 2.8 3.4 -7.3
Capital Outlay 557 757 702 955 26.0 36.1 2.3 2.7 2.6 3.2 -7.3
Social service 223 276 270 375 21.1 38.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.3 -2.2
Economic service 323 461 417 546 29.2 31.1 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.8 -9.5
General services 12 21 15 34 32.6 121.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -25.7
Loans & Advances given by state 27 38 35 48 33.1 35.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 -7.6
Revenue deficit -335 -98 -214 -197 -36.2 -7.8 -1.4 -0.4 -0.8 -0.7 117.4
Fiscal Deficit 235 519 506 584 115.3 15.5 1.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 -2.6
Primary Deficit -37 200 219 272 nm 24.4 -0.2 0.7 0.8 0.9 9.5
GSDP 24,258 27,925 26,721 29,820 10.2 11.6 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 -4.3
Source: Budget documents, Antique

38
West Bengal (5.4% of GDP)
Focus on fiscal consolidation and capex!
FY25 % FY26 % FY24 % FY25BE % FY25RE % FY26 % Deviation
INR bn FY24 FY25BE FY25RE FY26BE
growth growth of GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP in FY25RE
Total Receipts 2,017 2,364 2,278 2,683 12.9 17.8 12.2 12.6 12.6 13.2 -3.6
Revenue Receipts 2,003 2,363 2,276 2,661 13.6 16.9 12.1 12.6 12.5 13.1 -3.7
Tax Revenue 1,750 1,952 1,959 2,195 12.0 12.1 10.6 10.4 10.8 10.8 0.3
State's Own tax revenue 900 1,023 999 1,125 11.0 12.7 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 -2.4
Share in Central Taxes 850 929 960 1,070 13.0 11.4 5.1 4.9 5.3 5.3 3.3
Non-Tax Revenue 253 410 317 465 25.3 46.7 1.5 2.2 1.7 2.3 -22.6
State's Own Non-Tax Revenue 32 63 33 94 1.5 184.8 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 -48.0
Grants from Center 221 347 284 372 28.8 30.7 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.8 -18.0
Capital Receipts 15 2 2 22 -84.7 899.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 27.9
Recovery of loans & advances 15 2 2 22 -84.7 899.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 18.8
Total Expenditure 2,557 3,047 3,008 3,415 17.6 13.5 15.5 16.2 16.6 16.8 -1.3
Revenue Expenditure 2,260 2,682 2,709 3,014 19.9 11.3 13.7 14.3 14.9 14.8 1.0
Social service 1,030 1,328 1,382 1,589 34.2 14.9 6.2 7.1 7.6 7.8 4.1
Economic Services 379 456 401 463 5.7 15.4 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.3 -12.0
Non-Development 843 884 916 948 8.6 3.5 5.1 4.7 5.0 4.7 3.6
Grant in Aid & Contribution 7 14 10 14 33.1 50.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -33.8
Capital Expenditure 298 365 300 401 0.7 33.7 1.8 1.9 1.7 2.0 -17.8
Capital Outlay 290 359 291 393 0.6 35.0 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.9 -18.7
Social service 103 138 117 197 13.6 68.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.0 -15.2
Economic service 181 205 164 182 -9.1 10.6 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 -19.8
General services 6 16 10 14 74.2 43.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -36.1
Loans & Advances given by state 8 6 8 7 4.7 -9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 34.0
Revenue deficit 257 320 433 353 68.4 -18.4 1.6 1.7 2.4 1.7 35.4
Fiscal Deficit 540 683 730 732 35.2 0.2 3.3 3.6 4.0 3.6 7.0
Primary Deficit 112 228 262 242 134.5 -7.6 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.2 14.9
GSDP 16,514 18,795 18,150 20,318 9.9 11.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 -3.4

Source: Budget documents, Antique

39
Rajasthan (5.0% of GDP)
Fiscal slippage continues
FY25 % FY26 % FY24 % of FY25BE % FY25RE % FY26 % Deviation
INR bn FY24 FY25BE FY25RE FY26BE
growth growth GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP in FY25RE
Total Receipts 2,037 2,648 2,632 2,950 29.2 12.1 13.4 15.6 15.4 14.8 -0.6
Revenue Receipts 2,033 2,645 2,626 2,945 29.2 12.2 13.4 15.5 15.4 14.8 -0.7
Tax Revenue 1,621 2,051 1,980 2,285 22.1 15.4 10.7 12.0 11.6 11.5 -3.5
State's Own tax revenue 941 1,255 1,205 1,427 28.1 18.5 6.2 7.4 7.1 7.2 -4.0
Share in Central Taxes 681 796 775 857 13.9 10.5 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.3 -2.6
Non-Tax Revenue 411 593 646 661 57.0 2.3 2.7 3.5 3.8 3.3 8.8
State's Own Non-Tax Revenue 187 227 269 269 43.9 -0.1 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.4 18.8
Grants from Center 224 367 377 392 67.8 4.0 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.7
Capital Receipts 4 3 5 4 31.1 -20.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.8
Recovery of loans & advances 4 3 5 4 30.8 -21.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.3
Total Expenditure 2,693 3,347 3,333 3,796 23.8 13.9 17.7 19.7 19.6 19.1 -0.4
Revenue Expenditure 2,422 2,902 2,946 3,255 21.6 10.5 15.9 17.0 17.3 16.4 1.5
Social service 1,019 1,308 1,279 1,411 25.6 10.3 6.7 7.7 7.5 7.1 -2.2
Economic Services 627 722 764 887 22.0 16.0 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.5 5.8
Non-Development 777 872 902 958 16.1 6.2 5.1 5.1 5.3 4.8 3.4
Grant in Aid & Contribution 0 0 0 0 35.3 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Capital Expenditure 270 445 387 541 43.1 39.7 1.8 2.6 2.3 2.7 -13.0
Capital Outlay 266 442 383 537 43.7 40.2 1.8 2.6 2.2 2.7 -13.4
Social service 99 206 184 233 85.2 26.3 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.2 -10.4
Economic service 163 224 190 289 16.6 52.3 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.5 -15.1
General services 4 13 9 15 112.9 71.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -32.8
Loans & Advances given by state 4 3 4 4 3.7 -6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 52.4
Revenue deficit 390 258 319 310 -18.0 -2.9 2.6 1.5 1.9 1.6 24.0
Fiscal Deficit 656 699 701 846 6.9 20.8 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.3 0.2
Primary Deficit 315 345 291 431 -7.4 47.9 2.1 2.0 1.7 2.2 -15.6
GSDP 15,215 17,023 17,043 19,898 12.0 16.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.1

Source: Budget documents, Antique

40
Telangana (4.8% of GDP)
Focus is on revenue spending!
FY25RE % FY26BE % FY24 % of FY25BE % FY25RE % FY26BE % Deviation
INR bn FY24 FY25BE FY25RE FY26BE
growth growth GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP in FY25RE
Total Receipts 1,693 2,248 2,022 2,308 19.4 14.2 11.6 13.6 12.5 12.8 -10.1
Revenue Receipts 1,693 2,212 2,021 2,297 19.4 13.7 11.6 13.4 12.5 12.8 -8.6
Tax Revenue 1,355 1,644 1,565 1,753 15.4 12.1 9.3 10.0 9.7 9.7 -4.8
State's Own tax revenue 1,118 1,382 1,294 1,454 15.8 12.4 7.6 8.4 8.0 8.1 -6.4
Share in Central Taxes 237 262 271 299 13.9 10.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 3.2
Non-Tax Revenue 338 568 457 544 35.2 19.2 2.3 3.5 2.8 3.0 -19.7
State's Own Non-Tax Revenue 238 352 258 316 8.4 22.5 1.6 2.1 1.6 1.8 -26.7
Grants from Center 99 216 198 228 99.7 14.9 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.3 -8.3
Capital Receipts 0 36 1 11 69.6 1714.6 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 -98.3
Recovery of loans & advances 0 36 1 11 69.6 1714.6 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 -98.3
Total Expenditure 2,193 2,741 2,489 2,848 13.5 14.4 15.0 16.6 15.4 15.8 -9.2
Revenue Expenditure 1,685 2,209 1,962 2,270 16.4 15.7 11.5 13.4 12.2 12.6 -11.2
Social service 586 914 811 1,110 38.4 36.8 4.0 5.6 5.0 6.2 -11.3
Economic Services 543 857 714 677 31.6 -5.1 3.7 5.2 4.4 3.8 -16.7
Non-Development 556 438 437 483 -21.5 10.5 3.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 -0.2
Grant in Aid & Contribution 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Capital Expenditure 508 531 527 579 3.8 9.8 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.2 -0.8
Capital Outlay 439 335 331 365 -24.7 10.3 3.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 -1.2
Social service 91 93 89 105 -2.2 17.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -3.7
Economic service 339 221 221 241 -34.8 9.0 2.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.0
General services 9 21 21 19 137.7 -8.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -2.7
Loans & Advances given by state 69 196 196 214 186.1 8.8 0.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.0
Revenue deficit -8 -3 -59 -27 nm nm -0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 nm
Fiscal Deficit 500 493 468 540 -6.4 15.5 3.4 3.0 2.9 3.0 -5.1
Primary Deficit 256 315 290 346 13.3 19.3 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.9 -7.9
GSDP 14,644 16,473 16,126 18,003 10.1 11.6 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 -2.1
Source: Budget documents, Antique

41
Andhra Pradesh (4.7% of GDP)
Grants & continued fiscal driving capex growth
FY25RE % FY26BE % FY24 % of FY25BE % FY25RE % FY26BE % Deviation
INR bn FY24 FY25BE FY25RE FY26BE
growth growth GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP in FY25RE
Total Receipts 1,738 2,012 1,761 2,180 1.3 23.8 12.2 12.7 11.0 11.9 -12.5
Revenue Receipts 1,738 2,012 1,760 2,180 1.3 23.8 12.2 12.7 11.0 11.9 -12.5
Tax Revenue 1,316 1,603 1,470 1,666 11.7 13.3 9.3 10.1 9.2 9.1 -8.2
State's Own tax revenue 859 1,098 950 1,090 10.5 14.8 6.0 6.9 5.9 6.0 -13.5
Share in Central Taxes 457 505 521 576 13.9 10.5 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2
Non-Tax Revenue 421 409 290 514 -31.2 77.3 3.0 2.6 1.8 2.8 -29.2
State's Own Non-Tax Revenue 74 106 70 191 -5.6 172.4 0.5 0.7 0.4 1.0 -33.6
Grants from Center 347 303 220 323 -36.7 47.0 2.4 1.9 1.4 1.8 -27.6
Capital Receipts 0 0 0 0 2.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 104.3
Recovery of loans & advances 0 0 0 0 2.3 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 104.3
Total Expenditure 2,365 2,699 2,494 2,979 5.5 19.4 16.6 17.0 15.5 16.3 -7.6
Revenue Expenditure 2,124 2,359 2,243 2,512 5.6 12.0 14.9 14.9 14.0 13.8 -4.9
Social service 948 1,121 958 1,184 1.1 23.6 6.7 7.1 6.0 6.5 -14.5
Economic Services 487 504 562 569 15.4 1.3 3.4 3.2 3.5 3.1 11.5
Non-Development 690 735 723 758 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.2 -1.6
Grant in Aid & Contribution 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Capital Expenditure 241 340 251 468 4.2 86.5 1.7 2.1 1.6 2.6 -26.3
Capital Outlay 233 327 241 406 3.2 68.8 1.6 2.1 1.5 2.2 -26.4
Social service 122 109 116 158 -5.1 35.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 6.3
Economic service 104 211 121 242 16.0 100.7 0.7 1.3 0.8 1.3 -42.9
General services 7 7 4 6 -43.4 64.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -40.9
Loans & Advances given by state 7 13 10 61 37.3 511.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 -22.8
Revenue deficit 387 347 483 332 24.9 -31.3 2.7 2.2 3.0 1.8 39.1
Fiscal Deficit 627 687 734 799 17.0 8.9 4.4 4.3 4.6 4.4 6.7
Primary Deficit 332 399 424 449 27.6 5.9 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.5 6.2
GSDP 14,221 15,871 16,061 18,250 12.9 13.6 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.2

Source: Budget documents, Antique

42
Madhya Pradesh (4.5% of GDP)
Focus remains on capex despite elevated fiscal deficit
FY25RE % FY26BE % FY24 % FY25BE % FY25RE % FY26BE % Deviation
INR bn FY24 FY25BE FY25RE FY26BE
growth growth of GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP in FY25RE
Total Receipts 2,344 2,638 2,659 2,964 13.4 11.5 17.2 17.3 17.7 17.5 0.8
Revenue Receipts 2,340 2,633 2,620 2,909 12.0 11.0 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.2 -0.5
Tax Revenue 1,794 1,978 1,971 2,208 9.9 12.0 13.2 13.0 13.1 13.0 -0.4
State's Own tax revenue 908 1,022 963 1,093 6.0 13.5 6.7 6.7 6.4 6.5 -5.8
Share in Central Taxes 886 956 1,009 1,115 13.9 10.6 6.5 6.3 6.7 6.6 5.5
Non-Tax Revenue 546 655 649 701 18.7 8.0 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.1 -0.9
State's Own Non-Tax Revenue 199 206 219 214 9.9 -2.3 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.3 6.3
Grants from Center 347 449 430 487 23.8 13.2 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.9 -4.3
Capital Receipts 4 5 39 56 943.6 41.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 729.1
Recovery of loans & advances 4 5 39 56 953.2 41.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 758.7
Total Expenditure 2,789 3,264 3,284 3,753 17.7 14.3 20.5 21.4 21.8 22.2 0.6
Revenue Expenditure 2,215 2,616 2,610 2,903 17.8 11.2 16.2 17.2 17.4 17.1 -0.3
Social service 930 1,150 1,104 1,218 18.7 10.4 6.8 7.6 7.3 7.2 -4.0
Economic Services 572 590 658 691 15.1 5.1 4.2 3.9 4.4 4.1 11.6
Non-Development 628 758 744 843 18.4 13.4 4.6 5.0 4.9 5.0 -2.0
Grant in Aid & Contribution 85 118 105 150 22.8 43.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 -11.6
Capital Expenditure 573 647 674 851 17.5 26.3 4.2 4.3 4.5 5.0 4.1
Capital Outlay 565 616 649 825 14.8 27.1 4.1 4.0 4.3 4.9 5.3
Social service 216 243 276 368 27.9 33.3 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.2 13.6
Economic service 337 351 353 433 4.8 22.5 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.6 0.8
General services 12 22 20 24 62.6 22.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -12.3
Loans & Advances given by state 8 31 25 26 202.7 4.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 -21.0
Revenue deficit -125 -17 -10 -6 -91.8 -39.8 -0.9 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -39.7
Fiscal Deficit 445 626 624 789 40.4 26.4 3.3 4.1 4.2 4.7 -0.2
Primary Deficit 214 351 356 503 66.3 41.4 1.6 2.3 2.4 3.0 1.4
GSDP 13,633 15,222 15,034 16,945 10.3 12.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 -1.2
Source: Budget documents, Antique

43
Kerala (3.8% of GDP)
Well balanced!
FY25RE % FY26BE % FY24 % of FY25BE % FY25RE % FY26BE % Deviation
INR bn FY24 FY25BE FY25RE FY26BE
growth growth GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP in FY25RE
Total Receipts 1,252 1,398 1,340 1,535 7.0 14.6 10.9 10.7 10.5 10.8 -4.1
Revenue Receipts 1,245 1,387 1,329 1,524 6.8 14.6 10.9 10.6 10.4 10.7 -4.1
Tax Revenue 961 1,088 1,072 1,201 11.6 12.1 8.4 8.3 8.4 8.4 -1.5
State's Own tax revenue 743 849 816 915 9.8 12.1 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.4 -3.8
Share in Central Taxes 217 239 256 286 17.5 12.0 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.0 7.0
Non-Tax Revenue 284 299 258 322 -9.4 25.1 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.3 -13.8
State's Own Non-Tax Revenue 163 184 179 191 9.5 6.9 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 -2.5
Grants from Center 121 115 78 131 -35.0 66.6 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.9 -32.0
Capital Receipts 8 11 11 12 43.6 8.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -4.2
Recovery of loans & advances 7 11 10 11 46.9 7.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -2.5
Total Expenditure 1,595 1,843 1,788 1,986 12.1 11.1 13.9 14.1 14.0 13.9 -3.0
Revenue Expenditure 1,426 1,665 1,621 1,795 13.7 10.7 12.4 12.7 12.7 12.6 -2.6
Social service 440 528 522 584 18.7 11.9 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.1 -1.0
Economic Services 114 169 121 183 5.6 51.7 1.0 1.3 0.9 1.3 -28.6
Non-Development 782 817 846 868 8.3 2.5 6.8 6.2 6.6 6.1 3.7
Grant in Aid & Contribution 90 152 132 160 46.3 21.1 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.1 -13.2
Capital Expenditure 169 178 166 191 -1.4 14.8 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 -6.6
Capital Outlay 136 157 141 169 3.6 20.4 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 -10.2
Social service 29 30 29 33 -1.2 13.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 -1.6
Economic service 104 125 110 134 5.5 22.1 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 -12.2
General services 2 2 2 2 -22.1 22.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -9.2
Loans & Advances given by state 33 22 26 22 -21.8 -15.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 19.1
Revenue deficit 181 278 292 271 60.9 -7.1 1.6 2.1 2.3 1.9 4.8
Fiscal Deficit 343 445 447 450 30.6 0.7 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.2 0.5
Primary Deficit 73 158 150 132 106.4 -11.9 0.6 1.2 1.2 0.9 -5.2
GSDP 11,461 13,114 12,754 14,271 11.3 11.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 -2.7

Source: Budget documents, Antique

44
NCT of Delhi (3.7% of GDP)
Focus is on capex!
FY25 % FY26 % FY24 % of FY25BE % FY25RE % FY26 % Deviation
INR bn FY24 FY25BE FY25RE FY26BE
growth growth GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP in FY25RE
Total Receipts 569 645 631 817 10.8 29.5 5.1 5.2 5.1 6.0 -2.3
Revenue Receipts 568 641 630 815 11.0 29.4 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.9 -1.7
Tax Revenue 537 588 592 687 10.3 16.0 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.0 0.8
State's Own tax revenue 537 588 592 687 10.3 16.0 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.0 0.8
Share in Central Taxes 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Non-Tax Revenue 31 54 38 128 22.5 236.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.9 -29.2
State's Own Non-Tax Revenue 10 10 6 8 -41.4 25.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 -40.0
Grants from Center 21 44 32 121 53.8 275.7 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.9 -26.7
Capital Receipts 1 4 0 1 -56.7 157.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -88.8
Recovery of loans & advances 1 4 0 1 -57.0 159.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -88.9
Total Expenditure 608 711 646 954 6.2 47.6 5.5 5.8 5.2 7.0 -9.1
Revenue Expenditure 503 609 547 719 8.7 31.4 4.5 4.9 4.4 5.2 -10.2
Social service 282 372 311 453 10.5 45.5 2.5 3.0 2.5 3.3 -16.3
Economic Services 98 97 94 105 -3.5 11.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 -2.5
Non-Development 72 89 83 91 16.5 9.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 -5.9
Grant in Aid & Contribution 52 52 58 69 11.2 19.1 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 11.5
Capital Expenditure 105 102 99 235 -5.9 137.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.7 -2.9
Capital Outlay 69 59 49 172 -29.2 254.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 1.3 -18.0
Social service 27 27 24 62 -11.8 161.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 -11.5
Economic service 37 27 21 95 -44.2 359.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.7 -22.1
General services 5 6 4 16 -9.1 264.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -28.5
Loans & Advances given by state 36 43 50 62 38.0 24.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 18.0
Revenue deficit -65 -32 -83 -97 28.6 16.2 -0.6 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 157.3
Fiscal Deficit 39 66 15 137 -61.3 799.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 -76.8
Primary Deficit 8 39 -11 115 nm nm 0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.8 nm
GSDP 11,129 12,353 12,353 13,712 11.0 11.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0

Source: Budget documents, Antique, Note: GDP growth was not mentioned so we have assumed 11% growth for FY25 & FY26

45
Haryana (3.6% of GDP)
Well balanced!
FY25RE % FY26BE % FY24 % of FY25BE % FY25RE % FY26BE % Deviation
INR bn FY24 FY25BE FY25RE FY26BE
growth growth GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP in FY25RE
Total Receipts 1,017 1,222 1,140 1,332 12.1 16.9 9.4 10.1 9.4 9.9 -6.7
Revenue Receipts 1,013 1,166 1,126 1,278 11.2 13.5 9.3 9.6 9.3 9.5 -3.4
Tax Revenue 849 979 960 1,077 13.1 12.2 7.8 8.1 7.9 8.0 -1.9
State's Own tax revenue 725 846 819 921 13.0 12.4 6.7 7.0 6.8 6.8 -3.1
Share in Central Taxes 123 133 141 155 13.9 10.5 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 5.5
Non-Tax Revenue 165 188 166 201 0.9 21.1 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 -11.4
State's Own Non-Tax Revenue 81 92 88 103 8.3 17.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 -5.1
Grants from Center 84 95 78 98 -6.1 24.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 -17.5
Capital Receipts 4 56 14 54 233.9 290.0 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.4 -75.0
Recovery of loans & advances 3 7 7 8 128.8 18.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Total Expenditure 1,332 1,558 1,466 1,692 10.1 15.5 12.3 12.9 12.1 12.6 -5.9
Revenue Expenditure 1,132 1,345 1,305 1,484 15.3 13.8 10.4 11.1 10.7 11.0 -3.0
Social service 438 534 513 615 17.3 19.8 4.0 4.4 4.2 4.6 -3.9
Economic Services 240 292 276 307 14.9 11.3 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.3 -5.5
Non-Development 454 518 515 562 13.5 9.1 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.2 -0.6
Grant in Aid & Contribution 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Capital Expenditure 200 214 161 208 -19.4 29.3 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.5 -24.7
Capital Outlay 159 163 128 162 -19.9 26.8 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 -21.7
Social service 44 55 49 58 11.3 18.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 -10.6
Economic service 108 96 70 88 -35.4 25.5 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.7 -27.2
General services 6 11 8 15 26.9 90.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -28.8
Loans & Advances given by state 41 51 33 46 -17.5 39.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 -34.4
Revenue deficit 119 178 178 206 50.2 15.4 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.2
Fiscal Deficit 314 336 326 360 3.5 10.6 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 -3.2
Primary Deficit 95 82 76 95 -20.7 25.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 -7.7
GSDP 10,855 12,121 12,140 13,475 11.8 11.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.2
Source: Budget documents, Antique

46
Odisha (2.8% of GDP)
Focus on capex continues
FY25 % FY26 % FY24 % FY25BE % FY25RE % FY26 % Deviation
INR bn FY24 FY25BE FY25RE FY26BE
growth growth of GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP in FY25RE
Total Receipts 1,802 2,115 2,145 2,326 19.1 8.4 20.9 22.8 22.6 21.9 1.4
Revenue Receipts 1,796 2,110 2,140 2,320 19.2 8.4 20.8 22.7 22.5 21.8 1.4
Tax Revenue 1,056 1,152 1,183 1,304 12.0 10.3 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.3 2.6
State's Own tax revenue 544 601 600 660 10.2 10.0 6.3 6.5 6.3 6.2 -0.1
Share in Central Taxes 511 552 583 644 13.9 10.5 5.9 5.9 6.1 6.1 5.6
Non-Tax Revenue 740 958 957 1,016 29.3 6.1 8.6 10.3 10.1 9.6 0.0
State's Own Non-Tax Revenue 530 580 580 600 9.4 3.4 6.1 6.2 6.1 5.6 0.0
Grants from Center 210 378 377 416 79.6 10.2 2.4 4.1 4.0 3.9 -0.1
Capital Receipts 245 540 510 580 107.8 13.7 2.8 5.8 5.4 5.5 -5.6
Capital Receipts 6 5 5 6 -9.7 18.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Recovery of loans & advances 6 5 5 6 -9.7 18.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Total Expenditure 1,949 2,439 2,439 2,668 25.1 9.4 22.6 26.3 25.7 25.1 0.0
Revenue Expenditure 1,488 1,836 1,861 2,002 25.0 7.6 17.3 19.8 19.6 18.8 1.4
Social service 633 888 928 946 46.6 1.9 7.3 9.6 9.8 8.9 4.6
Economic Services 425 491 486 550 14.4 13.3 4.9 5.3 5.1 5.2 -1.1
Non-Development 415 439 428 488 3.3 13.8 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.6 -2.3
Grant in Aid & Contribution 15 18 18 18 17.2 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5
Capital Expenditure 461 603 578 666 25.6 15.1 5.3 6.5 6.1 6.3 -4.1
Capital Outlay 433 582 554 650 28.0 17.4 5.0 6.3 5.8 6.1 -4.8
Social service 96 200 180 241 87.3 34.0 1.1 2.2 1.9 2.3 -10.1
Economic service 316 350 345 366 9.2 6.2 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.4 -1.6
General services 21 32 29 43 39.3 46.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 -7.1
Loans & Advances given by state 28 22 25 16 -12.2 -35.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 14.0
Revenue deficit -308 -274 -279 -318 -9.2 13.8 -3.6 -3.0 -2.9 -3.0 1.8
Fiscal Deficit 147 324 294 342 99.4 16.3 1.7 3.5 3.1 3.2 -9.3
Primary Deficit 96 269 239 277 150.0 15.9 1.1 2.9 2.5 2.6 -11.1
GSDP 8,627 9,289 9,491 10,630 10.0 12.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 2.2

Source: Budget documents, Antique

47
Bihar (2.8% of GDP)
Focus is on fiscal consolidation
FY25RE % FY26BE % FY24 % of FY25BE % FY25RE % FY26BE % Deviation
INR bn FY24 FY25BE FY25RE FY26BE
growth growth GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP in FY25RE
Total Receipts 1,934 2,272 2,449 2,614 26.6 6.7 22.6 23.3 25.1 23.8 7.8
Revenue Receipts 1,933 2,268 2,444 2,608 26.4 6.7 22.6 23.2 25.0 23.8 7.8
Tax Revenue 1,620 1,673 1,837 1,980 13.4 7.8 19.0 17.1 18.8 18.0 9.8
State's Own tax revenue 484 543 543 595 12.3 9.6 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.4 0.0
Share in Central Taxes 1,136 1,130 1,294 1,385 13.9 7.0 13.3 11.6 13.3 12.6 14.5
Non-Tax Revenue 314 595 607 628 93.4 3.4 3.7 6.1 6.2 5.7 2.1
State's Own Non-Tax Revenue 53 73 73 82 39.4 12.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.0
Grants from Center 261 522 534 546 104.3 2.2 3.1 5.3 5.5 5.0 2.3
Capital Receipts 1 4 5 5 425.5 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.8
Recovery of loans & advances 1 4 5 5 425.5 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.8
Total Expenditure 2,291 2,563 3,274 2,941 42.9 -10.2 26.8 26.2 33.5 26.8 27.7
Revenue Expenditure 1,905 2,257 2,812 2,520 47.6 -10.4 22.3 23.1 28.8 23.0 24.6
Social service 832 1,023 1,416 1,167 70.1 -17.5 9.7 10.5 14.5 10.6 38.4
Economic Services 481 446 583 495 21.2 -15.1 5.6 4.6 6.0 4.5 30.6
Non-Development 592 788 814 858 37.5 5.4 6.9 8.1 8.3 7.8 3.4
Grant in Aid & Contribution 0 0 0 0 -5028.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Capital Expenditure 386 307 462 421 19.7 -8.9 4.5 3.1 4.7 3.8 50.7
Capital Outlay 365 294 437 405 19.8 -7.2 4.3 3.0 4.5 3.7 48.5
Social service 70 61 95 94 35.7 -1.4 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.9 56.3
Economic service 238 186 282 253 18.4 -10.3 2.8 1.9 2.9 2.3 51.4
General services 57 47 60 59 6.1 -1.9 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 27.1
Loans & Advances given by state 21 12 25 15 17.4 -38.5 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 102.3
Revenue deficit -28 -11 368 -88 nm nm -0.3 -0.1 3.8 -0.8 nm
Fiscal Deficit 357 291 825 327 131.3 -60.3 4.2 3.0 8.4 3.0 183.5
Primary Deficit 166 69 603 77 263.6 -87.2 1.9 0.7 6.2 0.7 771.1
GSDP 8,544 9,765 9,765 10,973 14.3 12.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0

Source: Budget documents, Antique. Note: FY25RE Deficit numbers are calculated as it was not mentioned in Budget document

48
Punjab (2.5% of GDP)
Focus is on fiscal consolidation and capex!
FY25 % FY26 % FY24 % FY25BE % FY25RE % FY26 % Deviation
INR bn FY24 FY25BE FY25RE FY26BE
growth growth of GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP in FY25RE
Total Receipts 892 1,046 1,044 1,124 17.0 7.7 12.0 13.0 12.9 12.6 -0.2
Revenue Receipts 892 1,039 1,037 1,117 16.3 7.7 12.0 12.9 12.8 12.5 -0.2
Tax Revenue 677 809 812 890 20.0 9.6 9.1 10.1 10.0 10.0 0.3
State's Own tax revenue 473 589 579 633 22.6 9.2 6.3 7.3 7.2 7.1 -1.7
Share in Central Taxes 204 220 233 257 13.9 10.5 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.9 5.5
Non-Tax Revenue 215 230 225 228 4.7 1.1 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.6 -1.9
State's Own Non-Tax Revenue 72 112 108 122 49.7 12.8 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.4 -3.7
Grants from Center 143 117 117 106 -18.0 -9.8 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.2 -0.2
Capital Receipts 0 7 7 7 1638.6 2.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.7
Recovery of loans & advances 0 7 7 7 1638.6 2.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.7
Total Expenditure 1,223 1,351 1,411 1,466 15.4 3.9 16.4 16.8 17.4 16.5 4.5
Revenue Expenditure 1,174 1,271 1,324 1,357 12.8 2.5 15.8 15.8 16.4 15.2 4.1
Social service 320 356 359 376 12.2 4.9 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.2 0.8
Economic Services 250 285 327 291 30.8 -11.3 3.4 3.6 4.0 3.3 14.8
Non-Development 571 575 579 623 1.4 7.5 7.7 7.2 7.2 7.0 0.7
Grant in Aid & Contribution 33 55 59 68 79.1 15.0 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 6.7
Capital Expenditure 49 79 87 109 77.0 25.1 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 10.4
Capital Outlay 47 74 83 103 76.0 23.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.2 12.1
Social service 22 38 35 36 59.2 2.8 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 -7.6
Economic service 23 31 44 56 92.5 28.8 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 42.5
General services 3 6 5 10 74.2 132.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -20.3
Loans & Advances given by state 2 5 4 6 100.5 61.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 -16.8
Revenue deficit 282 232 287 240 1.7 -16.5 3.8 2.9 3.5 2.7 23.7
Fiscal Deficit 331 305 367 342 11.0 -6.9 4.4 3.8 4.5 3.8 20.6
Primary Deficit 88 66 128 92 45.2 -28.1 1.2 0.8 1.6 1.0 94.9
GSDP 7,449 8,027 8,095 8,913 8.7 10.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.9

Source: Budget documents, Antique

49
Assam (1.9% of GDP)
Conservative tax assumption; focus is on fiscal consolidation
FY25RE % FY26BE % FY24 % FY25BE % FY25RE % FY26BE % Deviation
INR bn FY24 FY25BE FY25RE FY26BE
growth growth of GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP in FY25RE
Total Receipts 948 1,142 1,145 1,192 20.7 4.2 16.6 17.7 17.8 16.1 0.3
Revenue Receipts 915 1,119 1,122 1,172 22.6 4.5 16.0 17.4 17.4 15.8 0.2
Tax Revenue 635 741 744 793 17.2 6.6 11.1 11.5 11.6 10.7 0.3
State's Own tax revenue 282 342 342 349 21.2 2.0 4.9 5.3 5.3 4.7 0.0
Share in Central Taxes 353 399 402 444 13.9 10.6 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.0 0.6
Non-Tax Revenue 280 378 378 379 34.9 0.3 4.9 5.9 5.9 5.1 0.0
State's Own Non-Tax Revenue 59 89 89 84 50.0 -5.6 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.1 -0.2
Grants from Center 221 289 289 295 30.9 2.1 3.9 4.5 4.5 4.0 0.1
Capital Receipts 33 22 23 20 -30.8 -11.1 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 2.2
Recovery of loans & advances 33 22 23 20 -30.8 -11.1 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 2.2
Total Expenditure 1,157 1,367 1,515 1,466 31.0 -3.2 20.3 21.2 23.5 19.8 10.8
Revenue Expenditure 942 1,101 1,176 1,172 24.9 -0.3 16.5 17.1 18.3 15.8 6.8
Social service 435 481 531 541 22.1 1.8 7.6 7.5 8.3 7.3 10.4
Economic Services 122 183 192 170 57.1 -11.1 2.1 2.8 3.0 2.3 4.6
Non-Development 381 427 444 451 16.4 1.7 6.7 6.6 6.9 6.1 3.8
Grant in Aid & Contribution 3 9 9 10 167.4 9.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Capital Expenditure 215 266 339 294 57.6 -13.2 3.8 4.1 5.3 4.0 27.4
Capital Outlay 214 266 339 294 58.1 -13.4 3.8 4.1 5.3 4.0 27.5
Social service 46 70 92 101 100.6 9.2 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.4 32.7
Economic service 138 148 198 152 43.7 -23.1 2.4 2.3 3.1 2.1 33.6
General services 31 48 48 40 58.9 -16.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.0
Loans & Advances given by state 1 0 0 1 -82.2 349.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Revenue deficit 26 -19 54 0 104.2 -100.0 0.5 -0.3 0.8 0.0 nm
Fiscal Deficit 209 225 370 274 77.4 -26.0 3.7 3.5 5.7 3.7 64.2
Primary Deficit 105 105 243 157 132.4 -35.4 1.8 1.6 3.8 2.1 130.8
GSDP 5,709 6,437 6,437 7,416 12.7 15.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0

Source: Budget documents, Antique. FY25RE GSDP was not mentioned so we have assumed to be same as BE

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Chhattisgarh (1.7% of GDP)
Focus is on capex!
FY25RE % FY26BE % FY24 % FY25BE % FY25RE % FY26BE % Deviation
INR bn FY24 FY25BE FY25RE FY26BE
growth growth of GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP in FY25RE
Total Receipts 1,035 1,261 1,214 1,411 17.2 16.3 20.2 22.4 21.4 22.2 -3.7
Revenue Receipts 1,035 1,259 1,212 1,410 17.1 16.3 20.2 22.4 21.3 22.2 -3.7
Tax Revenue 773 937 902 1,040 16.7 15.3 15.1 16.7 15.9 16.4 -3.7
State's Own tax revenue 388 497 462 540 19.1 16.9 7.6 8.8 8.1 8.5 -7.0
Share in Central Taxes 385 440 440 500 14.3 13.6 7.5 7.8 7.7 7.9 0.0
Non-Tax Revenue 262 322 310 370 18.1 19.4 5.1 5.7 5.5 5.8 -3.7
State's Own Non-Tax Revenue 151 187 175 220 15.5 25.7 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.5 -6.4
Grants from Center 111 135 135 150 21.7 11.1 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.0
Capital Receipts 0 2 2 1 389.9 -33.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Recovery of loans & advances 0 2 2 1 485.7 -33.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Expenditure 1,305 1,474 1,517 1,650 16.3 8.8 25.5 26.2 26.7 25.9 2.9
Revenue Expenditure 1,147 1,248 1,284 1,382 11.9 7.6 22.4 22.2 22.6 21.7 2.9
Social service 394 556 545 593 38.3 8.8 7.7 9.9 9.6 9.3 -2.0
Economic Services 478 391 437 437 -8.5 0.1 9.3 7.0 7.7 6.9 11.9
Non-Development 262 288 288 338 9.9 17.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.3 0.2
Grant in Aid & Contribution 13 14 14 14 4.6 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
Capital Expenditure 157 226 233 268 48.1 15.1 3.1 4.0 4.1 4.2 3.0
Capital Outlay 154 223 230 263 49.1 14.6 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.1
Social service 71 99 104 121 46.4 16.6 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.9 4.1
Economic service 75 113 112 126 50.3 12.0 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 -0.8
General services 9 11 14 17 61.2 19.6 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 35.6
Loans & Advances given by state 3 3 3 5 -3.8 54.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -1.8
Revenue deficit 112 -11 72 -28 nm nm 2.2 -0.2 1.3 -0.4 nm
Fiscal Deficit 269 214 303 239 12.7 -21.3 5.3 3.8 5.3 3.8 41.9
Primary Deficit 197 130 209 143 5.8 -31.5 3.9 2.3 3.7 2.2 60.6
GSDP 5,121 5,617 5,679 6,359 10.9 12.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.1

Source: Budget documents, Antique

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Jharkhand (1.5% of GDP)
Focus is on capex and fiscal consolidation
FY25RE % FY26BE % FY24 % FY25BE % FY25RE % FY26BE % Deviation
INR bn FY24 FY25BE FY25RE FY26BE
growth growth of GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP in FY25RE
Total Receipts 952 1,109 1,107 1,254 16.3 13.3 20.6 23.6 21.9 22.5 -0.2
Revenue Receipts 879 1,108 1,103 1,252 25.5 13.4 19.0 23.6 21.8 22.5 -0.4
Tax Revenue 654 745 764 822 16.9 7.7 14.1 15.8 15.1 14.8 2.5
State's Own tax revenue 280 342 338 352 20.8 4.1 6.1 7.3 6.7 6.3 -1.1
Share in Central Taxes 374 403 426 470 13.9 10.5 8.1 8.6 8.4 8.5 5.5
Non-Tax Revenue 226 363 340 429 50.4 26.4 4.9 7.7 6.7 7.7 -6.4
State's Own Non-Tax Revenue 134 193 200 259 49.2 29.1 2.9 4.1 4.0 4.6 3.8
Grants from Center 91 170 139 171 52.3 22.5 2.0 3.6 2.8 3.1 -17.9
Capital Receipts 73 1 4 2 -94.8 -35.2 1.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 280.6
Recovery of loans & advances 73 1 4 2 -94.8 -35.2 1.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 280.6
Total Expenditure 1,015 1,204 1,222 1,367 20.4 11.8 22.0 25.6 24.1 24.6 1.5
Revenue Expenditure 767 918 985 1,106 28.4 12.4 16.6 19.5 19.4 19.9 7.2
Social service 287 365 432 544 50.4 25.9 6.2 7.8 8.5 9.8 18.4
Economic Services 224 280 266 283 18.7 6.4 4.8 6.0 5.2 5.1 -5.1
Non-Development 256 274 287 280 12.2 -2.5 5.5 5.8 5.7 5.0 5.0
Grant in Aid & Contribution 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Capital Expenditure 249 286 237 260 -4.6 9.7 5.4 6.1 4.7 4.7 -16.9
Capital Outlay 206 240 191 226 -7.2 18.5 4.5 5.1 3.8 4.1 -20.4
Social service 66 89 51 84 -22.4 64.5 1.4 1.9 1.0 1.5 -42.2
Economic service 130 138 129 130 -0.7 1.0 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.3 -6.8
General services 10 13 11 11 9.5 8.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 -16.4
Loans & Advances given by state 43 46 46 34 7.9 -26.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.6 1.1
Revenue deficit -113 -190 -119 -145 5.4 22.4 -2.4 -4.0 -2.3 -2.6 -37.5
Fiscal Deficit 63 95 115 113 81.4 -2.0 1.4 2.0 2.3 2.0 20.9
Primary Deficit -11 19 37 43 nm 14.0 -0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 101.7
GSDP 4,622 4,703 5,064 5,563 9.6 9.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 7.7

Source: Budget documents, Antique

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Uttarakhand (1.1% of GDP)
Focus is on capex!
FY25RE % FY26BE % FY24 % FY25BE % FY25RE % FY26BE % Deviation
INR bn FY24 FY25BE FY25RE FY26BE
growth growth of GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP in FY25RE
Total Receipts 506 607 593 626 17.0 5.6 15.2 15.4 15.7 14.6 -2.3
Revenue Receipts 506 606 592 625 17.0 5.6 15.2 15.3 15.7 14.6 -2.2
Tax Revenue 319 361 365 399 14.6 9.3 9.6 9.2 9.7 9.3 1.0
State's Own tax revenue 192 225 221 240 15.0 8.5 5.8 5.7 5.9 5.6 -1.7
Share in Central Taxes 126 136 144 159 13.9 10.5 3.8 3.5 3.8 3.7 5.5
Non-Tax Revenue 187 244 227 226 21.2 -0.4 5.6 6.2 6.0 5.3 -6.9
State's Own Non-Tax Revenue 44 49 46 44 3.6 -4.0 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.0 -6.1
Grants from Center 143 195 181 182 26.6 0.5 4.3 4.9 4.8 4.2 -7.1
Capital Receipts 0 1 0 0 53.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -80.5
Recovery of loans & advances 0 1 0 0 53.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -80.5
Total Expenditure 584 701 688 752 17.8 9.3 17.5 17.8 18.2 17.5 -1.9
Revenue Expenditure 473 558 564 600 19.3 6.3 14.2 14.1 14.9 14.0 1.0
Social service 197 221 232 229 17.9 -1.0 5.9 5.6 6.1 5.3 4.9
Economic Services 75 89 88 96 17.7 8.6 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 -1.0
Non-Development 176 211 208 235 18.2 12.9 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.5 -1.7
Grant in Aid & Contribution 26 37 36 40 41.2 9.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 -2.1
Capital Expenditure 111 143 124 152 11.7 22.7 3.3 3.6 3.3 3.5 -13.1
Capital Outlay 110 138 118 148 7.2 25.4 3.3 3.5 3.1 3.4 -14.6
Social service 35 31 32 48 -9.8 51.5 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.6
Economic service 51 75 66 72 28.9 8.7 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.7 -11.6
General services 24 32 20 28 -15.0 39.9 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.7 -37.4
Loans & Advances given by state 1 5 6 5 411.5 -28.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 27.4
Revenue deficit -33 -47 -29 -26 -14.6 -9.3 -1.0 -1.2 -0.8 -0.6 -39.8
Fiscal Deficit 77 94 95 126 22.9 32.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.9 1.2
Primary Deficit 26 28 29 56 13.0 94.3 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.3 4.0
GSDP 3,330 3,947 3,782 4,293 13.6 13.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 -4.2

Source: Budget documents, Antique

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