2.

India-Pakistan: History of a
Confrontational Normality
Date @February 3, 2025

Readings
Nasr, Vali, “National identities and the India-Pakistan conflict”, in The India-Pakistan Conflict: An
Enduring Rivalry, edited by T.V. Paul, 3–20. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005, pp.
178-201.

Paul, T.V. “Causes of the India-Pakistan Enduring Rivalry.” In The India-Pakistan Conflict: An
Enduring Rivalry, edited by T.V. Paul, 3–20. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005, pp. 3-
24.

Notes

Introduction — the Partition

Conflicting relations between India and Pakistan — legacy of the Partition of August 1947.

1 million people killed between 1947-1948.

10 million people displaced between countries.

First modern instance of ethnic cleansing.

The affected regions were mostly Bengal and
Punjab.

1/ Three wars

2. India-Pakistan: History of a Confrontational Normality 1

 1.1. The first Kashmir war
Kashmir — a Muslim majority princely state with a Hindu maharajah, who decided to accede to
India.
Hence the Pakistan-government supported attack by militias on Jammu and Kashmir in October
1947.

The Pakistani army went into Kashmir officially in May 1948.

2. India-Pakistan: History of a Confrontational Normality 2

 A non-resolved issue
Ceasefire was officially declared on January 1st, 1949 under the auspices of the UN, where India
had lodged a complaint exactly a year before.

On August 13th, the UN had passed a resolution saying that Pakistan should withdraw.
But the January 9th, 1949 resolution said that India should organise a plebiscite in the province.

Hence the stalemate: the ceasefire line became a de facto border.

Wagah — the only road international border crossing between India and Pakistan.
The Siachen Issue

Location: Siachen Glacier, in the eastern Karakoram range of the Himalayas, is the world's highest
battlefield, situated at an altitude of 5,400 to 7,600 meters (18,000–25,000 feet).
Dispute Origin: The conflict arises from different interpretations of the 1949 and 1972 ceasefire
agreements, which did not specify the boundary beyond point NJ9842, leading to territorial
ambiguity.
India’s Preemptive Occupation (1984): India launched Operation Meghdoot on April 13, 1984, and
occupied key strategic positions on the glacier, preventing Pakistan from establishing control.
Pakistan’s Response: Pakistan attempted to counter India's move by deploying forces, leading to
frequent skirmishes, but failed to dislodge Indian troops.

Strategic Importance: Siachen overlooks the Saltoro Ridge, giving India a tactical advantage over
Pakistan-controlled areas and access to key routes near China.
Human & Financial Costs: Harsh weather conditions (temperatures below -50°C) cause more
casualties than combat, and both nations spend billions maintaining their forces.
Attempts at Resolution: Multiple rounds of negotiations and ceasefire agreements (including in
2003) have reduced active conflict, but no final settlement has been reached.

Current Status: India maintains control over the glacier, and both nations continue to deploy troops,
making it a symbol of their broader rivalry.

The Chinese dimension

In 1962, China conquered Aksai Chin.

In 1963, Pakistan gave China part of the territory that had been conquered in 1948 in order to help
China to connect Tibet and Xinjiang.

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 1.2. The 1965 war?
Nehru dies in 1964, and Lal Bahadur Shastri seemed to be weak

India had been weakened by the 1962 wafr

Pakistan thought that the Indian Kashmiris were ready for an insurrection after Sheikh Abdullah
is arrested again

Hence the Operation Gibraltar which turned out to be a fiasco

The 1965 war: attacks by Pakistan and India’s response

The Tashkent Declaration

The Soviet mediators invited both parties to Tashkent (Uzbekistan) to peace talks in January
1966.

According to the final declaration said:

the Indian military and the Pakistani military would pull back to their pre-August lines, no
later than 25 February 1966;

neither nation would interfere in each other's internal affairs;

2. India-Pakistan: History of a Confrontational Normality 4

 there would be an orderly transfer of prisoners of war.

Indian concessions

In 1965 war, Indian Army had captured the strategic Haji Pir Pass, which dominated Kargil.
During the Tashkent talks between India and Pakistan, held through the good offices of Soviet
Union, India agreed to return Haji Pir Pass, town and many other tactically important areas.

To add mystery to the whole process, Prime Minister Shastri died on 10th January, 1966 after
signing the Tashkent Declaration with President Ayub Khan of Pakistan.

In India the Tashkent agreement was criticised because it did not contain a no-war pact or any
renunciation of guerrilla warfare.

1.3. The 1971 war

A civil war begins in Pakistan after the Bengal-based
Awami League won the 1970 elections

Almost 100 000 soldiers are sent from West Pakistan to

East Pakistan

The repression is massive but the Bengali guerilla is

resilient – and supported by India where millions of
refugees migrate

Finally, the Indian army intervenes, wins in a few days

and captures 95 000 war prisoners.

Bangladesh becomes independent

The Simla agreement (July 1972)

Art. 1: India and Pakistan pledge themselves “to settle their differences by peaceful means
through bilateral negotiations…”

India sees as a victory the fact that no mention is made to UN resolutions (incl. the one
regarding a plebiscite in Kashmir).

The Line of Cease Fire becomes a Line of Control (LoC), a step in the right direction for the
Indians who wanted it to become an international border

Conclusion 1
Partition has given birth to two hostile neighbours.

Kashmir is a bone of contention with an existential quality on both sides.

Pakistan has failed to get what it looked at as its due and has been defeated in 1971, when the
creation of Bangladesh has weakened the country further.

Hence a shift from conventional to non-conventional forms of conflict.

2. From the 1970s onwards: two non-conventional forms of conflict

The quest of parity via the nuclear and balistic programmes

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 After the 1971 defeat, Z.A. Bhutto launched a nuclear programme with the support of countries
from the Middle East (incl. Saudi Arabia) and China.

This programme gains momentum after the first Indian nuclear test in 1974

The Lahore OIC (1974)

Pakistan gets the bomb

In 1979, the US imposes sanctions on Pakistan because of its proliferation attitude, but after the
Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Washington needs Islamabad

In the 1980s, Pakistan got the bomb thanks to the A.Q. Khan network and Chinese support.

In 1998, India tested four times; in response, Pakistan tested five times – for the sake of parity.

Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan — Father of Pakistan’s Nuclear Program

The ballistic missile programme

Nuclear weapons are meaningful only if supported by a

delivery system

Since India has Mirages and missiles, Pakistan acquired

F-16s and developed its own missiles with the help of
North Korea (and China, indirectly) during the 1990s.

What deterrence?

Nuclearisation is supposed to be good for peace because it results in deterrence (balance of

power).

But in the case of the India-Pakistan relations, it made a different impact: Pakistanis though they
could now attack without fearing consequences. How could India take the risk of any
escalation?

The Siachen glacier battle (1984)

The Indo-Pakistani relations deteriorated again in 1984 after the Indian army took control of the
Siachen glacier (which took Pakistan by surprise).

Troops are deployed by -60° C, at 4000 - 7000 m: thousands of casulaties, not because of
warfare.

Peace talks

In 1988 Rajiv Gandhi and Benazir Bhutto started to talk — to no avail

In 1999 A.B. Vajpayee and Nawaz Sharif did the same

2.2. Islamist terrorism. How to “bleed India”?

Several jihadi groups have taken shape in the 1980s during the anti-Soviet jihad in Afghanistan.

Mujahideens in Afghanistan, Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda, etc.

Terrorism in India: the army-jihadi joint venture

2. India-Pakistan: History of a Confrontational Normality 6

 Lashar-e-Taiba — most famous Pakistani terrorist group in India (Kashmir)

After the Soviets left Afghanistan in 1988, the Pakistani jihadis started to shift their attention to
Jammu and Kashmir where the Indian government had alienated the Muslim population.

Hafiz Saeed and Zaki-ur Rehman Lakhvi

From Kashmir to Mumbai

In 1989 the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front launched an insurgency and boycotted the
general election (the turn-out was very low in Srinagar, 6%).

Fedayin attacks multiplied in the 1990s in Jammu and Kashmir

Suicide bombers of Jaish-e-Mohammed infiltrated Jammu and Kashmir in the 2000s, when LeT
started to target symbolic sites out of J&K, like the Delhi Red Fort in Dec. 1999, the Indian
Parliament in Dec. 2001 or Mumbai in Nov. 2008 – 175 people killed.

How to make peace talks derail?

Terrorist attacks by Pakistan-based groups have taken place in response to the peace talks that
the governments of Islamabad and New Delhi have initiated.

In December 2015, Narendra Modi paid a surprise visit to Nawaz Sharif in Lahore to resurrect
negotiations. Few days later, the military base of Patankot was taken by storm, revealing the
presence of dormant cells of JeM in Punjab.

2016: a turning point?

In January, Jihadists from Pakistan infiltrated a military air base in Pathankot (Punjab) and
killed 7 army men after a manhunt of three days.

In September, a fedayin attack on the military base of Uri (J&K) killed 19 Indian soldiers.

The government of India, which attributed the attack to the same Pakistan-based group as the
Pathankot one, Jaish-e-Mohammed, reacted by unleashing “surgical strikes” on 28th of
September.

While such retaliations had already been secretly implemented by the previous government,
these ones were publicised.

Cross-border shellings continued till the end of the year, resulting in casualties among soldiers
on both sides and displacement of civilians.

From Puwalma to Balakot

Pulwama 14/2/2019: a convoy of the CRPF is attacked by a suicide bomber – 40 soldiers killed.

Retaliations on 26/2/2019: Indian jets strike a jihadi camp in Balakot – beyond contested
territory

Main theme of the 2019 Indian elections, great contribution to Modi’s victory.

Is India doing to Pakistan in Baluchistan what Pakistan is doing to India in

Jammu and Kashmir?
In March, the Pakistan army had released the video of a man named Kulbhushan Jadhav who
was presented as a RAW agent who had been allegedly captured after infiltrating Baluchistan
for financing the separatist movement.

Narendra Modi himself is mentioning Baluchistan in some of his speeches.

2. India-Pakistan: History of a Confrontational Normality 7

 Conclusion
Conflict has been inherent in the Indo-Pakistani relations — a consequence of the conditions in
which these two countries were born.

This conflict found expression in conventional wars till the 1970s and took a non-conventional
turn in the 1980s.

Today, Pakistan is probably the only country India is not trying to engage with.

India tries to relate to many others in the framework of plurilateralism.

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