Likely Outcomes of the Trade War Between the

United States of America and China

I. Executive Summary

The trade relationship between the United States and China has deteriorated
significantly in 2024 and 2025, marked by escalating tariffs imposed by both
nations.1 The Trump administration increased tariffs on Chinese goods to
145% by April 2025, prompting China to retaliate with tariffs reaching 125%
on American products.1 This trade war is expected to have profound and
multifaceted impacts on the economies of both countries, global supply
chains, technological competition, and the geopolitical landscape. Economic
institutions and think tanks predict negative consequences, including
reduced trade, slower growth, and increased inflation. Potential future
scenarios range from continued escalation and decoupling to a protracted
stalemate, with a negotiated settlement appearing less likely in the current
environment. Overall, the likely results of this trade war point towards
significant economic pain and global disruption.

II. The Current Landscape of US-China Trade Relations: Tariffs,

Agreements, and Tensions
● Escalation of Tariffs in 2025: The trade conflict between the United
States and China witnessed a sharp intensification in 2025. By April, the
Trump administration had raised tariffs on goods imported from China to
a substantial 145%.1 This dramatic increase followed earlier increments,
building upon the tariffs initially imposed during the previous Trump
administration.1 In response to these escalating measures, China
implemented its own series of retaliatory tariffs on American goods. By
April 2025, these tariffs had reached 125% 1, mirroring the rate imposed
by the US. Notably, China announced that given the current tariff levels,
importing goods from the US was no longer economically viable, and
therefore, it would cease to respond to any further tariff hikes from the
US.2 The timeline of this escalation included a 10% tariff increase by the
Trump administration in February 2025, followed by another 10% in
March.1 China countered with a 15% tariff on American goods in March,
and by April, the US had brought the total import tariff on China to 54%. 1
This tit-for-tat cycle culminated in the US imposing a 145% tariff and
China responding with a 125% tariff by mid-April. 1 This rapid and
significant escalation in tariffs signifies a breakdown in diplomatic efforts
and a firm entrenchment of protectionist stances by both nations,

1
 suggesting a prolonged and intensified trade conflict is underway. The
fact that China has declared US imports unviable at these levels
underscores the severity of the situation and the potential for a
significant disruption in bilateral trade. 2
● Existing Trade Imbalances: Despite the imposition of tariffs in
previous years, the United States continued to experience a substantial
trade deficit with China, amounting to $295.4 billion in 2024. 3 This figure
represented a 5.8% increase from the previous year, indicating that
tariffs alone had not effectively rebalanced the trade relationship. 5
Conversely, China maintained a significant global trade surplus, including
a notable surplus with the United States. 1 In 2024, China's total trade
surplus surged to a record $992.2 billion, with exports climbing by 5.4%. 3
The composition of trade between the two nations in 2024 saw the US
exporting approximately $199 billion in goods and services to China,
while importing $463 billion.4 Top US exports included soybeans, aircraft,
pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, while major imports from China
comprised mobile phones, computers, toys, and clothing. 4 The
persistence of this trade deficit despite the ongoing trade war suggests
that tariffs may not be the sole determinant of trade balances.
Underlying macroeconomic factors, such as differing savings and
investment rates in the two countries, and the deeply embedded nature
of global supply chains likely play a significant role. 7 As one expert noted,
even eliminating the trade deficit with China would not resolve the
overall US trade deficit, pointing to broader economic issues at play. 7
This indicates that the trade war's stated objectives of significantly
reducing the trade deficit may not be fully realized through tariffs alone.
● Breakdown of Negotiations: The prospects for a swift resolution to the
trade war through renewed negotiations appear dim. According to a
former US trade official, there is "no easy path" to restarting talks, with
both the US and China "doubling down" on their positions and bilateral
engagement at a "virtual standstill".4 China has publicly stated that if the
US genuinely desires to resolve issues through dialogue, it must adopt an
attitude of equality, respect, and mutual benefit. 4 This stance reflects
China's unwillingness to negotiate under perceived pressure or from a
position of disadvantage. Furthermore, China has accused the Trump
administration of engaging in "nationalist protectionism" 1, while the US
government has expressed concerns about China's state-led, market-
distorting economic practices.1 These mutual accusations highlight the
deep-seated disagreements that extend beyond specific trade figures
and encompass fundamental differences in economic philosophies and

2
 approaches to international trade. The lack of willingness from either
side to engage in meaningful negotiations suggests that the trade war is
likely to persist for the foreseeable future without a clear resolution. The
breakdown in communication and the hardening of positions indicate a
prolonged period of economic disruption and strained bilateral relations.

III. Economic Impact on the United States: Sector-Specific Analysis

● Agriculture: The agricultural sector in the United States has been a
primary target of China's retaliatory tariffs in the ongoing trade war. 2
China has imposed tariffs on a wide range of US agricultural products,
including soybeans, pork, beef, corn, wheat, cotton, chicken, fruits,
vegetables, and dairy.2 These tariffs have led to a significant reduction in
US agricultural exports to China, echoing the challenges faced by
American farmers during the 2018-2020 trade tensions. 8 Notably, China
accounts for a substantial portion of US agricultural exports; for instance,
it was the largest export destination for US soybeans, purchasing over
$15 billion in 2023.10 Overall, China represents approximately 17% of US
agricultural exports.8 The imposition of tariffs makes US agricultural
products more expensive for Chinese buyers, leading them to seek
alternative suppliers. Countries like Brazil and Argentina have stepped in
to fill the demand previously met by US farmers, resulting in a shift in
global agricultural supply chains.8 During the previous trade war, US
agricultural export losses totaled $27.2 billion, and similar losses are
anticipated if the current situation persists. 8 While the US government
provided financial assistance to farmers during the earlier trade dispute,
allocating nearly $28 billion in direct payments, these funds are now
largely depleted.8 This lack of available emergency funding raises
concerns about the ability of the US government to support farmers
through the current trade war. The significant reliance of US agriculture
on the Chinese market and the potential for long-term market share
losses to competitors present substantial challenges for the sector.
● Manufacturing: The manufacturing sector in the United States faces a
complex set of challenges and potential opportunities as a result of the
trade war with China. US tariffs on Chinese goods have increased the
cost of inputs for many American manufacturers who rely on components
and raw materials sourced from China.7 This rise in input costs has led to
a loss of sales for US manufacturing companies, not only domestically
but also in China and in third countries, as their products become less
competitive due to higher prices.7 The policy uncertainty surrounding the
trade war has also prompted US multinational companies to slow down

3
 their capital expenditure, hindering investment in expansion and
innovation.7 Experts have suggested that if the high tariffs are sustained
for an extended period, it could lead to a real "effective decoupling"
between the American and Chinese economies.11 However, the Trump
administration has notably excluded electronics such as smartphones
and laptops from the highest tariff rates (145%), likely reflecting the
significant challenges and potential consumer backlash associated with
rapidly shifting the manufacturing of these goods out of China. 11 Despite
the difficulties, the trade war has created an opportunity for US
companies to re-evaluate their supply chain strategies. Some firms are
exploring the possibility of shifting manufacturing away from China to
other low-wage countries like India and Vietnam, aiming to build more
resilient supply chains and access high-growth markets. 13 On the other
hand, certain segments of US manufacturing, such as steel and
aluminum producers, may benefit from the tariff protection, potentially
leading to increased domestic production and sales at higher prices. 14
Overall, the US manufacturing sector is navigating a period of increased
costs and uncertainty, with some potential for supply chain
diversification and benefits in specific protected industries, but a broad-
scale return of manufacturing to the US remains a long-term and
complex undertaking.
● Technology: The technology sector in the United States is significantly
impacted by the ongoing trade war with China, facing increased costs
and potential long-term competitive disadvantages. Tariffs imposed by
the US on Chinese technology imports have led to higher expenses for
American tech firms.15 This additional financial burden has strained
research and development budgets, potentially slowing down the pace of
innovation within the sector.15 Consumers may also see price increases
for popular electronics; for example, some analysts predicted potential
price hikes of up to $350 on certain iPhone models due to tariffs. 15 In
response to these challenges, some US tech companies are diversifying
their supply chains, exploring manufacturing locations in countries like
India and Vietnam to mitigate the impact of tariffs. 13 However, the trade
war also poses a broader risk to the US's technological competitiveness.
The instability and uncertainty created by the conflict could weaken the
US's ability to compete on critical and emerging technologies, such as
artificial intelligence, leading-edge semiconductor design, and quantum
computing.17 While the US currently holds an edge in some of these
areas, China is rapidly catching up and already leads in other key
technologies like cryptocurrency, small drones, and electric vehicles. 17

4
 The technology value chain is inherently global, relying on complex
networks of suppliers and manufacturers across different countries. 17
Tariffs disrupt these established networks and increase costs, potentially
leading the US to lose its first-mover advantage in pivotal technologies if
access to key components is limited or becomes more expensive. 17 The
decision by the Trump administration to exempt certain electronics,
including smartphones, from the highest tariffs acknowledges the deeply
interconnected nature of the tech sector and the potential for significant
economic disruption if these tariffs were fully applied. 12

IV. Economic Impact on China: Sector-Specific Analysis

● Manufacturing: China's manufacturing sector, a cornerstone of its
economy, is experiencing considerable pressure as a result of the trade
war with the United States.5 The imposition of high US tariffs has raised
concerns about a decrease in export demand to the US, a historically
significant market for Chinese manufactured goods. 5 In response to these
challenges, China has been actively diversifying its export markets,
seeking to reduce its dependence on the US by focusing on regions like
Southeast Asia, Africa, and other emerging economies. 3 Furthermore, the
trade war has spurred China to increase its investments in high-
technology industries, such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and
advanced manufacturing, as part of a broader strategy to achieve
technological self-reliance and counter US pressure. 13 To circumvent US
tariffs, some Chinese manufacturers are exploring the possibility of
relocating production facilities to other countries, including Vietnam and
Mexico, contributing to shifts in global manufacturing hubs. 21 Despite the
pressures, China retains significant competitive advantages in
manufacturing, including a well-developed logistics and infrastructure
network that has been built over decades, as well as considerably lower
labor costs compared to the United States. 5 While the trade war presents
substantial challenges for China's manufacturing sector, its large
domestic market and ongoing efforts to diversify and upgrade its
industrial capabilities provide a degree of resilience. The long-term
strategic focus on technological self-sufficiency could ultimately reshape
global competition, potentially diminishing the United States' economic
leverage in key industries.
● Exports: The trade war has led to a notable shift in the destination of
China's exports. The proportion of Chinese exports destined for the
United States has significantly decreased, falling from 19% in 2018 to
under 15% in 2024.19 Simultaneously, China has witnessed an increase in

5
 its exports to Southeast Asian neighbors, as well as to markets in Africa
and India, indicating a proactive strategy of market diversification. 3 To
further mitigate the impact of US tariffs, some Chinese exporters have
resorted to rerouting their goods through third countries, such as
Vietnam, before they reach the United States. This practice is evidenced
by increased exports from Vietnam to the US and a corresponding rise in
imports from China to Vietnam.24 Despite these efforts, the US tariffs are
projected to have a negative impact on China's overall economic growth,
with economists estimating a potential reduction of one to two
percentage points in annual GDP growth.20 In response to the tariffs,
China has also employed currency devaluation, allowing the yuan to
weaken against the US dollar. This deliberate weakening of the currency
makes Chinese exports more appealing to foreign buyers, partially
offsetting the increased cost due to tariffs.20 While China is actively
adapting its export strategy to the trade war, the loss of a major market
like the US and the economic costs associated with these adjustments
present significant challenges.
● Domestic Consumption: The ongoing trade war and the associated
global economic slowdown pose potential headwinds for domestic
consumption within China.23 Recognizing this, the Chinese government
has emphasized the importance of boosting household consumption as a
long-term strategy to reduce the economy's reliance on exports and
enhance its resilience to external shocks. 23 One potential consequence of
the high US tariffs is an increase in the domestic consumption of goods
that are no longer being exported to the US due to their reduced
competitiveness in that market.6 To further support domestic demand
and mitigate the negative impacts of the trade war, the Chinese
government is likely to implement various stimulus measures, including
the potential issuance of additional government bonds to fund
infrastructure projects and provide financial support to households and
businesses.23 However, despite these efforts, the uncertainty created by
the trade war and the weaker global economic outlook could still dampen
consumer confidence and spending within China, presenting a challenge
to its growth objectives. The effectiveness of government stimulus
measures in fully offsetting these negative pressures remains to be seen.

V. Disruption of Global Supply Chains and International Trade Flows

The trade war between the United States and China has triggered a
significant restructuring of global supply chains and a noticeable shift in
international trade flows.21 Companies worldwide are actively diversifying

6
their supplier bases and relocating production away from China to countries
such as Vietnam, Thailand, and India to mitigate the risks and increased
costs associated with US tariffs.15 This diversification effort is a direct
response to the higher costs of raw materials and finished goods resulting
from the tariffs imposed by both the US and China. 21 The trade war has also
led to operational delays in logistics and customs clearance due to new trade
restrictions and regulatory changes.21 Furthermore, businesses are
undergoing a technological realignment, reassessing their partnerships, and
placing a greater emphasis on intellectual property protection in the face of
heightened trade tensions.21 Experts predict a sharp contraction in the
bilateral trade volume between the US and China, with some projections
suggesting a decrease of as much as 80%.5 This reduction in direct trade has
created opportunities for "bystander" countries, particularly those with
existing free trade agreements, to potentially benefit from increased exports
of tariff-exposed products to both the US and China. 19 The uncertainty and
instability caused by the trade war have also accelerated a trend towards
stronger regional trade agreements, as countries seek more predictable and
stable trade relationships within their respective regions. 22 Ultimately, the
ongoing trade conflict carries an increased risk of global economic
fragmentation, potentially leading to the rise of competing trade blocs
centered around the US and China, resulting in a less interconnected global
economy.22

Company/ Original Location New Location(s) Primary Driver

Industry (Primarily) for Shift

Apple China India, Vietnam US Tariffs on

Electronics,
Diversification

Lego China Vietnam US Tariffs,

Diversification

General Trend China Vietnam, Thailand, US Tariffs, Reduced

India, Mexico Reliance on China

Automotive (EV China South Korea, Japan, Potential US Tariffs,

Components) Canada Reshoring/Friendsh
oring Incentives

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 Semiconductor Taiwan, South Arizona, New York, US Government
Manufacturing Korea Ohio (Potential) Incentives (CHIPS
Act), Tariff Threats

VI. Long-Term Consequences for Technological Competition and

Innovation

The trade war between the US and China has significantly escalated the
already intense competition for global technological leadership. 1 This conflict
carries substantial long-term consequences for the technological landscape
in both nations and globally. One of the primary risks for the United States is
the potential weakening of its ability to innovate and scale critical and
emerging technologies due to the instability, increased costs, and disrupted
supply chains resulting from the trade war.17 China, on the other hand, has a
clear strategic objective to achieve technological self-sufficiency, as
evidenced by initiatives like "Made in China 2025," aiming to reduce its
reliance on foreign technologies and become a dominant force in key
sectors.1 The US currently holds a lead in several crucial technologies,
including artificial intelligence and semiconductor design, but China is rapidly
closing the gap and has already surpassed the US in areas such as 5G
technology and mobile device manufacturing. 17 The global nature of
technology value chains is a critical factor in this competition. Both US and
Chinese tech companies rely on intricate international networks for
components, manufacturing, and research.17 Tariffs and retaliations disrupt
these established networks, increasing costs and creating uncertainty, which
can hinder innovation in both countries. There is a growing concern that the
US could lose its first-mover advantage in pivotal technologies like quantum
computing if tariffs on essential inputs or retaliatory measures limit access to
key components.17 The trade war may also lead to a more fragmented global
technology industry, with the potential for the development of regional
supply chains and diverging technology standards as companies and nations
seek to minimize their exposure to the conflict. 15 In the long term, this
technological competition, intensified by the trade war, could lead to a
significant decoupling in the technology sector, with the US and China
developing increasingly separate and potentially incompatible technology
ecosystems.

VII. Geopolitical Ramifications: Impact on International Relations

and Alliances

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The trade war between the US and China extends far beyond economic
considerations, carrying significant geopolitical ramifications that are
reshaping international relations and alliances. 22 The US's approach to the
trade war, characterized by unilateral tariff impositions, has strained its
relationships with traditional allies such as the European Union and Canada. 6
These allies, also targeted by US tariffs, are now exploring closer economic
ties with China, signaling a potential shift in traditional alliances. 35 China, on
the other hand, is actively seeking to strengthen its relationships with other
major trading partners, including the EU and Japan, presenting itself as a
more stable and reliable partner in the face of US trade policy volatility. 20 In
East Asia, the trade war is contributing to a potential realignment of strategic
relationships. Key US allies like South Korea and Japan are increasingly
drawn towards China due to its significant economic size and geographic
proximity, potentially impacting the traditional US-led security architecture in
the region.31 As China pursues self-sufficiency in critical industries and global
supply chains are disrupted, the US's leverage in international affairs could
be weakened.22 The uncertainty created by the trade war has also spurred
greater interest in regional trade agreements like the CPTPP and RCEP,
suggesting a move towards regionalization as a means of ensuring more
stable trade relationships.22 There is a growing risk of economic decoupling,
particularly in strategic sectors, which could lead to the emergence of
competing economic spheres centered around the US and its allies versus
China and its partners, fundamentally altering global trade and investment
flows.22 Furthermore, China is strategically leveraging its trade relations and
initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative to expand its political and
economic influence globally, potentially challenging the existing US-led
international order.18

VIII. Expert Analyses and Predictions from Economic Institutions and

Think Tanks

Reputable economic institutions and think tanks have offered various

analyses and predictions regarding the likely future outcomes of the trade
war between the United States and China. The Director-General of the World
Trade Organization (WTO) has cautioned about a significant risk of a sharp
contraction in bilateral trade between the two nations, potentially by as
much as 80%.5 The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD) has revised its global GDP growth forecasts downward,
citing the US-China trade war as a key factor contributing to this reduced
outlook.31 J.P. Morgan Research anticipates a US recession as a likely
consequence of the escalating trade tensions and has also lowered its

9
growth forecast for China in 2025 due to the reciprocal tariffs and a
weakening global economic environment.26 Several analyses project a
notable increase in consumer prices and a decrease in the average
household disposable income in the US as a direct result of the tariffs
imposed on Chinese goods.6 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has
estimated that the US-China trade war could cost the global economy
approximately $700 billion and significantly dampen overall global economic
growth.42 Experts at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
have expressed strong concerns about the potential damage to both the US
and global economies stemming from the tariffs, also anticipating retaliatory
measures from other affected trading partners.39 Overall, these expert
analyses converge on the expectation of a substantial decrease in US-China
bilateral trade volumes as tariffs reach levels that make trade economically
unviable. Concerns about rising inflation and the possibility of stagflation
have also been highlighted by several economic forecasters. 16

IX. Potential Future Scenarios and Their Consequences for the US

and China

The future of the trade relationship between the US and China remains
uncertain, with several potential scenarios that could unfold, each carrying
distinct consequences for both nations.
● Scenario 1: Continued Escalation and Decoupling: This scenario
involves a further increase in tariff rates by both the US and China,
accompanied by the implementation of more non-tariff barriers such as
export controls and investment restrictions. It could also entail an
intensified push for technological decoupling, with both countries actively
seeking to reduce their reliance on the other for critical technologies and
components, potentially leading to a significant and potentially
unmanaged decoupling of the US and Chinese economies across various
sectors.11 The consequences of this scenario would likely include higher
costs for consumers and businesses in both countries due to increased
tariffs and disrupted supply chains, slower overall economic growth,
intensified technological competition leading to potential inefficiencies
and duplicated efforts, and heightened geopolitical tensions with an
increased risk of conflict.
● Scenario 2: Negotiated Settlement and Partial De-escalation: This
scenario envisions a resumption of high-level trade talks leading to a
mutually agreed-upon partial rollback of the most damaging tariffs. It
might also involve agreements on specific issues such as intellectual

10
 property protection, market access for certain goods and services, and
perhaps some commitments on trade imbalances. 45 This would result in a
limited easing of trade tensions, although the underlying strategic
competition and mistrust would likely persist. The consequences could
include reduced uncertainty for businesses and investors, some relief for
heavily affected sectors like agriculture and manufacturing, but the
fundamental structural issues driving the trade conflict would likely
remain unresolved, leading to continued vigilance and potential for
future flare-ups.
● Scenario 3: Protracted Stalemate: In this scenario, the current high
levels of tariffs remain in place without any significant further escalation
or meaningful de-escalation.1 Businesses in both countries would adapt
to the new trade environment by diversifying supply chains, finding
alternative markets, and adjusting pricing strategies. Ongoing trade
tensions and a persistent climate of uncertainty would continue to weigh
on business investment and long-term planning. The consequences of a
protracted stalemate could include persistent negative impacts on
bilateral trade flows and overall economic growth in both countries,
continued gradual adjustments in global supply chains, and a slow but
steady shift in global economic power dynamics as other regions
potentially benefit from the US-China trade friction.

X. Conclusion

The trade war between the United States and China in 2024-2025 is poised
to yield significant and largely negative outcomes across various dimensions.
Economically, both nations are likely to experience reduced trade, slower
growth, and increased costs for businesses and consumers. The US
agricultural sector faces substantial export losses due to retaliatory tariffs,
while its manufacturing sector grapples with higher input costs and
uncertainty. The technology sector in the US risks losing its competitive edge
and facing hindered innovation. China's manufacturing and export sectors
are also under pressure, although diversification efforts and a focus on
domestic consumption offer some mitigation. Globally, supply chains are
being disrupted and reconfigured, leading to increased costs and potential
inefficiencies. The long-term consequences for technological competition
point towards a potential decoupling and the development of separate
technology ecosystems. Geopolitically, the trade war has strained
international relations, weakened US alliances, and potentially accelerated
China's rise in global influence. Expert analyses from reputable institutions
largely concur on the negative economic impacts for both countries and the

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world. Looking ahead, the most likely scenarios involve either a continued
stalemate with persistent high tariffs or further escalation of trade tensions,
both of which portend significant economic pain and global disruption. A
comprehensive negotiated settlement appears less probable in the current
climate. Ultimately, the trade war is likely to result in a less efficient global
trade order and a continued state of tension between the world's two largest
economies.

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