Economics Development - Topic 4 6.
2 Population Growth: Past, Present,
Population Growth and Economic and Future
Development: Causes,
Consequences, and Controversies ● More than 75 million people are
added to the world's population
6.1: The Basic Issue: Population each year, with 97% of this
Growth and the Quality of Life increase occurring in developing
countries.
● The central question is whether
population growth in developing ● Population growth is a problem of
countries helps or hinders their human welfare and development,
development goals for current not just numbers.
and future generations.
● In 2013, the world's population A. World Population Growth
was approximately 7.2 billion. Throughout History
The UN Population Division
projected it to reach about 8.1 ● It took nearly 36,000 years (about
billion by 2025 and 9.6 billion by 1,400 generations) for the world
2050. population to double before 1650.
● The text explores the debate on ● Around 12,000 years ago, when
whether rapid population growth people started cultivating food,
is a major problem or a symptom the population was less than 5
of deeper issues like million.
underdevelopment and unequal
● By 2,000 years ago, it had grown
resource distribution between rich
to nearly 250 million.
and poor nations.
● From 1 AD to the Industrial
● Key points include examining the
Revolution, the population
link between poverty and family
reached 728 million.
size, the drivers of high
population growth in developing ● Between 1750 and 1950, it
countries, and why population increased by an additional 1.7
growth tends to decrease as billion, and from 1950 to 1990, by
countries develop. 5.3 billion.
● At the start of the 21st century,
the world population was 6 billion.
● Currently, at the present growth
rate, it would take about 58 years
(two generations) for the world rate is still very high at 2.3% per
population to double. year.
● Historically, population changes ● Doubling time refers to the
resulted from the combined relationship between the annual
effects of disease, famine, percentage increase and the time
malnutrition, plague, and war. it takes for a population to
double.
● The 20th century saw
technological and economic
advancements that controlled
these conditions, leading to lower B. Structure of the World's
human mortality rates. Population
● This decline in mortality, due to ● More than three-quarters of the
advances in medicine and world's population lives in
technology, has caused developing countries, while only
unprecedented population one in four lives in an
growth, especially in developing economically developed nation.
countries.
● Today's population growth is C. Fertility and Mortality Trends
mainly due to the transition from
high birth and death rates to ● The rate of population increase is
lower death rates, with birth rates measured by the yearly net
decreasing more slowly, relative increase (or decrease) in
particularly in less developed population size, considering
countries. natural increase and net
international migration.
● The population of the least
developed countries is projected ● Natural increase is the difference
to increase tenfold (from 200 between births and deaths
million to 2 billion). (fertility minus mortality).
● In contrast, the population of ● Net international migration is the
developed countries is expected difference between the number of
to grow very little between now people immigrating into a country
and 2050, even with immigration. and those emigrating from it,
which is currently limited but
● The world population growth rate growing.
remains high at nearly 1.2% per
year but is slowing down. Africa's
● Population increases in ● The under-5 mortality rate is the
developing countries largely number of deaths among children
depend on the difference between birth and 5 years old per
between crude birth rates and 1,000 live births.
death rates.
● In 2009, Sub-Saharan Africa had
● Crude birth rates are the number the lowest life expectancy (51
of children born alive each year years) due to the AIDS epidemic
per 1,000 people. and high under-5 mortality rates.
● Death rates are the number of ● Older people have a biological
deaths per year per 1,000 susceptibility to higher death
people. rates due to aging. However,
younger people in developing
● Crude birth rates range from 15 countries with rapid population
to 45 per 1,000 in developing growth also have higher average
countries and are less than 15 death rates.
per 1,000 in developed countries.
● The total fertility rate, which is the
average number of children a D. Age Structure and Dependency
woman would have, has fallen Burdens
significantly in many countries
since 1970. ● The population in the developing
world is relatively youthful, with
● Factors like vaccination children under 15 making up
campaigns, public health more than 40% of the total
facilities, clean water, improved population in low-income
nutrition, and education have countries.
lowered death rates by up to 50%
in parts of Asia and Latin America ● The youth dependency ratio is
and by over 30% in much of the proportion of young people
Africa and the Middle East. under 15 to the working
population aged 16 to 64.
● Life expectancy at birth is the
number of years a newborn child ● A high youth dependency ratio
is expected to live based on means the workforce has to
current mortality risks. support a larger number of
children.
● In 1950, life expectancy in
developing countries was 35-40 ● Rapid population growth
years, compared to 62-65 years increases the proportion of
in developed countries. dependent children, making it
harder for the working population 6.3 The Demographic Transition
to support them.
● The demographic transition is the
● The hidden momentum of process of population growth
population growth is the rates changing from a stagnant
phenomenon where population stage with high birth and death
continues to increase even after rates, through a rapid-growth
a fall in birth rates because of the stage with high birth rates and
large existing youthful population. low death rates, to a stable,
low-growth stage with low birth
● This occurs because high birth and death rates. It also involves
rates take time to change, and fertility rates declining to low and
the age structure of many stable levels.
developing countries means a
large base of potential parents. ● This transition explains how
developed nations went through
● Population pyramids are graphic three stages of population
representations of the age history:
structure, showing age cohorts
on the vertical axis and ➔ Stage 1: Before economic
population shares or numbers of modernization, countries had
males and females on the stable or very slow-growing
horizontal axis. populations due to high birth
rates and equally high death
● In contrast, in situations where rates.
the fraction of people of working
age is falling as a result of ➔ Stage 2: Modernization brought
population aging, the resources better public health, diets,
needed for old-age support are incomes, and other
increasing, which is already a improvements, leading to a
challenge for most high-income reduction in mortality and
countries. marking the beginning of the
demographic transition (from
● This transition requires a higher stable or slow-growing
savings rate and can be helped populations to rapidly increasing
by increased immigration. numbers and then declining
● The transition poses an even rates).
greater challenge for some ➔ Stage 3: Modernization and
middle-income countries, development caused a decline in
particularly those like China, fertility, with falling birth rates
which are experiencing big drops converging with lower death
in fertility.
rates, resulting in little or no 6.4 The Causes of High Fertility in
population growth. Developing Countries: The
Malthusian and Household Models
● This implies a movement from a
high number of births per woman A. The Malthusian Population Trap
to a replacement fertility level.
Replacement fertility is the ● Proposed by Reverend Thomas
number of births per woman that Malthus in his 1798 "Essay on
would maintain stable population the Principle of Population," it
levels. explores the relationship between
population growth and economic
● Birth rates in many developing development.
countries today are higher than
those in pre-industrial Western ● Malthus argued that population
Europe, with women tending to has a universal tendency to grow
marry at an earlier age. at a geometric rate (doubling
every 30 to 40 years), while
● Stage 2 of the demographic resources expand at an
transition occurred throughout arithmetic rate.
most of the developing world by
the 1950s and 1960s. ● This imbalance would lead to per
capita incomes falling to
● The application of modern subsistence levels, checked by
medical and public health "Malthusian positive checks" like
technologies caused death rates diseases, starvation, and wars.
in developing countries to fall
more rapidly than in 19th-century ● The only way to avoid this is
Europe. through "moral restraint" to limit
the number of offspring.
● The text raises the question of
when and under what conditions ● The Malthusian population trap is
developing nations are likely to the point at which population
experience falling birth rates and increase stops because
slower population growth and resources, growing arithmetically,
emphasizes the importance of can't support the geometrically
understanding the determinants increasing population.
or causes of high fertility rates. ● Modern-day neo-Malthusians
believe that poor nations can only
rise above subsistence levels by
initiating preventive checks on
population growth.
● Countries can escape this trap ● Focus on per capita income
through technological progress instead of the microeconomics of
that increases income growth or family size decisions, where
changes in economic institutions individual living standards are key
and culture (social progress) that to decisions about having
reduce population growth. This children.
shifts the income growth curve up
or the population growth curve
down, allowing for self-sustaining C. The Microeconomic Household
growth. Theory of Fertility
● This theory uses neoclassical
B. Criticisms of the Malthusian household and consumer
Model behavior to explain family-size
decisions, viewing family
● Criticisms focus on its simplistic formation as a balance of costs
assumptions that don't hold up and benefits.
empirically.
● It applies the conventional theory
● It ignores the significant impact of of consumer behavior, where
technological progress in individuals maximize satisfaction
offsetting growth-inhibiting forces. (utility) from consuming goods,
subject to income and prices.
● It assumes a direct relationship
between national population ● In this context, the demand for
growth rates and per capita children in developing countries
income, which research doesn't is analyzed considering children
support. as both:
● In summary, Malthusian and ● Consumer goods: The first two or
neo-Malthusian theories have three children may be seen as
limited relevance to consumer goods with demand
contemporary developing nations that is not very responsive to
because they: price changes.
● Do not adequately account for ● Investment goods: Children are
technological progress. also seen as economic
investment goods, providing child
● Are based on a flawed macro labor and old-age support.
relationship between population
growth and per capita income. ● The demand for surviving
children (Cd) is a function of
household income (Y), the net
price of children (Pc), the prices
of other goods (Px), and tastes D. Implications for Development and
for goods relative to children (tx): Fertility
Cd=f(Y,Pc,Px,tx), x=1,...,n The text outlines several factors
● The relationship between these that influence fertility:
variables and the demand for ● Increased education of women
children can be summarized as: and their improved role and
➔ ∂Cd/∂Y>0: Higher household status.
income increases the demand for ● Increased female nonagricultural
children. wage employment, raising the
➔ ∂Cd/∂Pc<0: Higher net price of cost of child-rearing.
children decreases the quantity
demanded. ● Increased family income through
➔ ∂Cd/Px>0: Higher prices of other employment or income
goods relative to children redistribution.
increase the quantity of children
● Reduced infant mortality through
demanded.
better public health, nutrition, and
➔ ∂Cd/∂tx<0: Stronger tastes for
medical care.
goods relative to children
decrease the number of children ● Development of old-age social
demanded. security systems to lessen
economic dependence on
● The theory concludes that raising
offspring.
the price or cost of children (e.g.,
through increased education and ● Expanded schooling
employment opportunities for opportunities, allowing parents to
women, higher school fees, child substitute child "quality" for large
labor laws, or social security numbers of children.
schemes) will lead parents to
demand fewer children,
substituting child "quality" for
quantity.
● This implies that providing
greater educational opportunities
and higher-paying jobs for young
women can induce families to
desire fewer children.
6.5 The Consequences of High B. World Resource Depletion and
Fertility: Some Conflicting Environmental Destruction:
Perspectives
● Population is only an economic
The text presents conflicting views on problem in relation to the
the consequences of population growth. availability and use of scarce
natural resources.
A. Population Growth - "Not a Real
Problem" C. Population Distribution:
Arguments include: ● The issue is not just the number
of people, but their spatial
● The problem is not population distribution.
growth itself but other issues.
● Some regions are
● Population growth is a false issue underpopulated relative to
created by rich countries to resources (e.g., parts of
maintain their dominance over sub-Saharan Africa, Amazon).
developing countries.
● Governments should aim for a
● Population growth is desirable for more balanced population
many developing countries and distribution.
regions.
● Underdevelopment is the real
issue; with better strategies E. Subordination of Women:
leading to improved living
standards, self-esteem, and ● Women often face poverty,
freedom, population growth will limited education, and restricted
resolve itself, as it has in social mobility.
developed nations. ● This can result in high fertility
● Poverty, lack of education, poor rates.
health, and weak social safety ● Improving women's health,
nets drive large family sizes in education, economic well-being,
developing countries, as children and status can lead to smaller
are seen as a source of social families and lower population
security. growth.
D. Other Empirical Arguments: 7 A. What Developing Countries Can
Negative Consequences Do Persuasion through education
Population Growth. Family planning programs
1. Economic Growth ● Address incentives and
2. Poverty and Inequality disincentives for having children
3. Education through the principal variables
4. Health influencing the demand for
5. Food children
6. Environment
7. International Migration ● Coercion is not a good option
● Raise the socioeconomic status
6.2 Some Policy Approaches of women
● General and specific policies that ● Increase employment status for
developing country governments women (increases opportunity
can initiate to influence and cost of having more children, as
perhaps even control their in microeconomic household
population growth and distribution theory)
● General and specific policies that
developed-country governments B. What Developed Countries Can
can initiate in their own countries Do Generally
to lessen their disproportionate
consumption of limited world ● Address resources use inequities
resources and promote a more
● More open migration policies
equitable distribution of the
benefits of global economic
progress
C. How Developed Countries Can
● General and specific policies that Help Developing Countries with
developed-country governments Their Population Programs
and international assistance
agencies can initiate to help ● Research into technology of
developing countries achieve fertility control
their population objectives
● Financial assistance for family
planning programs
❖ Review Guide: T4 Mind Map
