CLIMATE MODELLING

06/05/2025
5/6/2025 Climate Modelling 11
06/05/2025 FOOTER GOES HERE 2
 Introduction to Climate Modelling
• What is Climate Modeling?
Climate modeling is the use of
mathematical and computational
models to simulate the Earth's
climate system. These models help
predict future climate conditions
based on various environmental
inputs, such as greenhouse gas
concentrations, solar radiation, and
ocean currents.

06/05/2025 Climate Modelling 3

06/05/2025 FOOTER GOES HERE 4
 A Simplified Climate Model

06/05/2025 FOOTER GOES HERE 5

06/05/2025 FOOTER GOES HERE 6
06/05/2025 FOOTER GOES HERE 7
06/05/2025 FOOTER GOES HERE 8
06/05/2025 FOOTER GOES HERE 9
06/05/2025 FOOTER GOES HERE 10
06/05/2025 FOOTER GOES HERE 11
06/05/2025 FOOTER GOES HERE 12
06/05/2025 FOOTER GOES HERE 13
06/05/2025 FOOTER GOES HERE 14
06/05/2025 FOOTER GOES HERE 15
06/05/2025 FOOTER GOES HERE 16
 Introduction to Climate Modelling
Purpose of Climate Models
• To understand and predict long-
term climate patterns.
• To assess the impact of human
activities (e.g., carbon
emissions) on the climate.
• To inform policy-making and
guide climate adaptation
strategies.

06/05/2025 Climate Modelling 17

 Introduction to Climate Modelling
Why Climate Modeling Matters
• Predicts climate change
impacts (e.g., temperature
rise, sea level change).
• Helps prepare for extreme
weather events and shifts in
ecosystems.
• Guides global climate policies
and sustainable development
efforts.

06/05/2025 Climate Modelling 18

 Introduction to Climate Modelling
Components of Climate Models
• Atmospheric Models: Simulate air
movement, temperature, precipitation,
and other atmospheric processes.
• Ocean Models: Model ocean currents,
sea surface temperatures, and their
interactions with the atmosphere.
• Land Surface Models: Represent
vegetation, soil moisture, and land use.
• Cryosphere Models: Simulate the
behavior of ice sheets, glaciers, and sea
ice.
06/05/2025 Climate Modelling 19
 Introduction to Climate Modelling
Types of Climate Models
• Global Climate Models (GCMs):
Simulate climate over the entire
globe.
• Regional Climate Models (RCMs):
Focus on specific regions, providing
more detailed predictions.

06/05/2025 Climate Modelling 20

 Introduction to Climate Modelling

06/05/2025 Climate Modelling 21

 Introduction to Climate Modelling

06/05/2025 Climate Modelling 22

 Introduction to Climate Modelling

06/05/2025 Climate Modelling 23

 Climate Modelling Tools
• 1. General Circulation Models (GCMs) Tools
• These are the primary tools for simulating global climate systems:
• Community Earth System Model (CESM)
– Developed by the National Center for Atmospheric
Research (NCAR), CESM is one of the most widely used
coupled climate models. It simulates interactions
between the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and sea
ice.
• Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM)
– Developed by the UK Met Office, HadGEM is used for
simulating climate processes at various spatial scales,
including global, regional, and local.
• NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model (GISS ModelE)
– A GCM used for understanding global warming and
climate sensitivity, developed by NASA GISS. It's used for
long-term climate projections.

06/05/2025 Climate Modelling 24

 Climate Modelling Tools

•ECHAM
•Developed by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, ECHAM
is used for simulating the atmospheric part of the climate system,
with several versions designed for different applications.
•MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate)
•A collaborative climate model used by Japan’s Meteorological
Research Institute, MIROC simulates global climate dynamics,
with applications in assessing climate impacts on ecosystems and
society.

06/05/2025 Climate Modelling 25

 Climate Modelling Tools
• 2. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) Tools
• RCMs are more specialized tools used for regional climate
projections:
• RegCM (Regional Climate Model)
– Developed by the International Centre for Theoretical
Physics (ICTP), RegCM is used for high-resolution
simulations of regional climate patterns, especially
useful for analyzing localized climate change impacts.
• WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model)
– WRF is a popular tool for weather and climate
simulations at both regional and global scales. It's
often used for short-term weather forecasting but can
also be applied for long-term climate scenarios.
• ALADIN (Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique
Développement International)
– A regional climate model used primarily in Europe for
medium-range weather prediction and long-term
06/05/2025 Climate Modelling
climate simulation. 26
 Climate Modelling Tools
3. Earth System Models (ESMs)
• ESMs combine GCMs with
biogeochemical processes to simulate
the entire Earth system, including the
atmosphere, oceans, and biosphere.
• NorESM (Norwegian Earth System
Model)
– A model developed by the
University of Oslo, which simulates
the interactions between the
atmosphere, oceans, sea ice, and
ecosystems.

06/05/2025 Climate Modelling 27

 ArcGIS and QGIS: Common Tools of Climate Analysis
•Developer: Esri (Environmental Systems
Research Institute)
•Type: Proprietary (Commercial Software)
•Features:
•Comprehensive suite of tools for mapping,
analysis, and data management.
•Advanced tools for spatial analysis,
geoprocessing, and geostatistics.
•Integration with enterprise-level solutions
(ArcGIS Online, ArcGIS Server).
•Licensing: Requires a paid license (various
pricing tiers).

06/05/2025 Climate Modelling 28

 ArcGIS and QGIS: Common Tools of Climate Analysis

ArcGIS
•Developer: Esri (Environmental Systems
QGIS Research Institute)
•Developer: Open Source Community •Type: Proprietary (Commercial Software)
•Type: Open-source (Free Software) •Features:
•Features: •Comprehensive suite of tools for mapping,
•Extensive set of tools for vector, raster, and spatial analysis, and data management.
analysis. •Advanced tools for spatial analysis,
•User-friendly interface and customizable plugins. geoprocessing, and geostatistics.
•Strong community support with constant updates. •Integration with enterprise-level solutions
•Licensing: Free and open-source under the GPL (ArcGIS Online, ArcGIS Server).
license. •Licensing: Requires a paid license (various
pricing tiers).

06/05/2025 Climate Modelling 29

 ArcGIS and QGIS: Common Tools of Climate Analysis

QGIS ArcGIS
•Offers a broad range of analysis tools, including • Extensive suite of spatial analysis tools (e.g.,
geospatial processing and basic statistical analysis. Network Analyst, Spatial Analyst, 3D Analyst).
•Some advanced tools are available through third- • Specialized tools for specific industries like
party plugins (e.g., GRASS, SAGA). urban planning, environmental management, and
•Lacks some of the advanced proprietary tools that geology.
ArcGIS offers.

06/05/2025 Climate Modelling 30

 ArcGIS and QGIS: Common Tools of Climate Analysis

06/05/2025 Climate Modelling 31

 ArcGIS and QGIS: Common Tools of Climate Analysis

Feature ArcGIS QGIS

Licensing Commercial (Paid) Open-source (Free)
User Interface Professional, advanced Simple, customizable

Tools & Analysis Extensive (Advanced) Broad range, some plugins required

Data Formats Extensive, enterprise integration Supports multiple formats

Performance Resource-intensive Lightweight, suitable for smaller tasks

Extensibility Extensions (Paid) Plugins (Mostly free)

Community & Support Paid support, user community Open-source community, forums

06/05/2025 Climate Modelling 32

 AERMOD: An Air Dispersion Regulatory Model

• A more accurate and complex version of Industrial

Sources Complex Short-Term Model (ISCST3)
• Incorporates PBL (Planetary Boundary Layer) and
complex algorithms to apply Gaussian Plume Model
(GPM) of Dispersion of pollutants
The equation for the Gaussian plume model is:

06/05/2025 Climate Modelling 33

 AERMOD: An Air Dispersion Regulatory Model
• GPM states that the pollutants are dispersed through
normal distribution Gaussian distribution
Assumes that:
• plume spread results primarily by molecular
diffusion
• horizontal and vertical pollutant concentrations in
the plume are normally distributed (double Gaussian
distribution)

06/05/2025 Climate Modelling 34

 AERMOD: An Air Dispersion Regulatory Model
• GPM states that the pollutants are dispersed through
normal distribution Gaussian distribution
Assumes that:
• plume spread results primarily by molecular
diffusion
• horizontal and vertical pollutant concentrations in
the plume are normally distributed (double Gaussian
distribution)

06/05/2025 Climate Modelling 35

 AERMOD: An Air Dispersion Regulatory Model
• To set up AERMOD Dispersion model in context of Pakistan, the model was set up in two phase

Phase I → Setting up the

preprocessor AERMET

Phase II → AERMOD
AERMAP
06/05/2025 Climate Modelling 36
 AERMOD: An Air Dispersion Regulatory Model

06/05/2025 Climate Modelling 37

 AERMOD: An Air Dispersion Regulatory Model

06/05/2025 Climate Modelling 38

 AERMOD: An Air Dispersion Regulatory Model
Phase I : Setting up the preprocessor
AERMET

AERMET PREPROCESSOR
The Minimum Input Data
• Hourly Surface Data
• Upper Air Data
• Location of the pertinent
site, sectors, and surface
data

Interface of AERMET View for preprocessing of

meteorological data
5/6/2025 39
 AERMOD
Phase I : Setting up the preprocessor
AERMET

AERMET PREPROCESSOR
• Hourly Surface data
• Wind Direction (deg)
• Cloud cover (tenth)
• Wind speed (m/s)
• Dry bulb temperature (℃)
• Ceiling height (m)
• Relative humidity (%)
• Precipitation amount (hundredths
• Station pressure (mb)
of inches)
• Global horizontal radiation
(wh/m2)
5/6/2025 40
 AERMOD Phase I : Setting up the preprocessor
AERMET

Dialogue box showing met data input

5/6/2025 41
 AERMOD Phase I : Setting up the
preprocessor AERMET

Dialogue box showing input sector identification and wind rose

options
5/6/2025 42
 AERMOD Phase I : Setting up the preprocessor
AERMET

Wind rose outputs from AERMET

5/6/2025 43
 AERMOD

Phase II : Setting up AERMOD

Once the meteorological input is run through AERMET, it is

incorporated in AERMOD Interface. AERMAP is set up within
this interface to determine the terrain profile of the area.

AERMET Preprocessed Data

AERMOD Dispersion Model

AERMAP Preprocessed Data

5/6/2025 44
 AERMOD

Phase II : Setting up AERMOD

1. The raster image of the study area is extracted form google Earth
2. Georeferencing in ArcGIS for the accurate positioning of the selected brick kiln.
3. As AERMOD determine the concentration profile within the diameter of 50 km, the center point of the circle is
set at the geographical position of the brick kiln and the raster image is cropped accordingly keeping the radius of
25 km at each side.
LATITUDE: 33.578085°
LONGITUDE: 72.899699°

Georeferenced raster
images of the study
area

5/6/2025 45
 AERMOD

Phase II : Setting up AERMOD

DATA INPUT FOR AERMOD

Control data
1. Dispersion options
2. Pollutant time averaging
3. Terrain options

5/6/2025 46
 AERMOD

Phase II : Setting up AERMOD

DATA INPUT FOR AERMOD

Source data SOURCE PARAMETERS VALUES

1. Type of source (Point, line etc.) Base Elevation 511.67 m
2. Base elevation (m)
3. Source height (m) Release Height 17.831 m
4. Gas exit temperature (k0)
Emission Rate 0.386 g/s
5. Emission rate (g/s)
6. Stack inside diameter (m) Gas Exit Temperature 63.2 C
7. Gas exit velocity
8. Stack height (m) Stack Inside Diameter 0.95 m
9. Stack width (m) Gas Exit Velocity 19442.121 m/s
Gas Exit Flow Rate 13781.0
5/6/2025
Source input data 47
 AERMOD

Phase II : Setting up AERMOD

DATA INPUT FOR AERMOD

Dialogue box showing source input

data

5/6/2025 48
 AERMOD

Phase II : Setting up AERMOD

DATA INPUT FOR AERMOD

Receptor data X-AXIS Y-AXIS
1. Grid type (UTM) (UTM)
2. Number of points
3. Spacing options Center 305071.00 m 3717353.00 m
Meteorological data coordinates
1. SFC file
2. PFL file No. of points 25 25
(Obtained in AERMET
Output)
Spacing 500 m 500 m

5/6/2025 49
Receptor Data
 AERMOD

Phase II : Setting up AERMOD

DATA INPUT FOR AERMOD

Displaying Unifrm Cartesian Grid on

Google Earth
5/6/2025 50
 AERMOD

SETTING UP AERMAP

• AERMAP is a terrain elevation preprocessor that is used in conjunction with

AERMET to generate accurate meteorological data for air quality modeling.

• It uses digital elevation models (DEMs) and other input data to calculate
terrain elevations and other topographical features.

• AERMAP can account for local-scale meteorological effects, such as land-use

changes and urban heat islands, which can significantly impact air quality
predictions.

5/6/2025 51
 AERMOD

SETTING UP AERMAP

Displaying AERMAP result in AERMOD

interface
5/6/2025 52
AERMAP Dialogue Box
 AERMOD

SETTING UP AERMAP

Data Visualization through 3D View

Data Visualization through Google

Earth
5/6/2025 53
 FLOOR IS OPEN FOR
QUESTIONS!

06/05/2025 Climate Modelling 54