Equity Research

India | Equity Strategy August 30, 2023

India Politics - The Elections Playbook STRATEGY NOTE

Political continuity is the most likely outcome in the upcoming national

elections due May’24. This augurs well for our key thesis of a capex Exhibit 1 - National Elections and Nifty50
movement - Eventual market outcome and
and housing upcycle over current decade driving higher GDP growth and initial reaction may vary
attractive market returns. The key risk factors would be anti-incumbency, Election Election impact (%) - Next 3-yrs returns

small vote share swings causing large impact on outcomes and the 2004 year 10-calendar days (%)
May04 -17 180
example. Potential market volatility ahead of the elections should be used May09 19 13

to add domestic cyclicals. May14 8 32

. May19 6 36

Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies

Political continuity likely. Current PM Mr. Modi continues to be one of the most popular
political leaders India has seen thanks to a combination of various factors, including solid Exhibit 2 - Summary of 2 opinion polls so far
implementation of social schemes, jobs oriented growth focus, strong communication and for 2024 elections - Implying clear majority for
the BJP
appeal to emotional factors etc. For equity investors, his capex driven growth policies matter
Non-aligned &
the most. Voters vote differently at the state and national elections and, hence, recent /
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Independents
9%

potential setbacks at the state elections does not necessarily imply a setback at the national
Congress
elections. Some important allies of the party have left since 2019, but the party has been able allies
21% BJP
to forge a few new relationships as well which should be helpful. 53%

Congress Opinion poll

13% projected seats for

Opposition that is I.N.D.I.A. 26 opposition parties have formed a grand alliance – INDIA
2024 elections :
Total 543
BJP allies

(Indian National Democratic Inclusive Alliance) to create a strong contender for upcoming . 4%

Source: India Today-CVOTER, India TV - CNX, Jefferies

elections. These opposition parties run Governments in 11 states accounting for 40% of
population. In a hypothetical exercise, assuming only 1 candidate from all these parties in any
Exhibit 3 - Impact of vote share swing on
constituency and assuming 100% vote transfer amongst these parties' basis 2019 outcome, BJP's seats (Using 2019 as the base). 272
the alliance could win 20 more out of 543 national seats, taking total to 180. We also note seats needed for majority. BJP won 303 in
2019.
that 6 key parties (YSRCP, TDP, BJD, BSP, JDS & ADMK) are not a part of this coalition with
30 BJP seats
cumulative 49 seats (2019 election) and can possibly tilt towards BJP’s coalition (NDA) if need 20
18
12

be. 10 6

-10

The X factors. Given the demographics, every national election sees about 125m first time -20
-20
-30

voters. Their voting tendencies are untested at the national elections so far. 2024 elections -40
-31

-50 -42
will see 255m registered voters (25% of total) who were not eligible voters in the pre-Modi era. 2ppt 4ppt 6ppt

Also, certain emotive issues viz. cross border conflicts, Ram Temple issues etc. can have an .
Impact of share loss Impact of share gain

impact on the election outcome. Source: ECI, Jefferies

The market outlook. Out of the last 4 national elections, the previous two elections results
were more on the expected lines but yet the Indian market outperformed MSCI AxJ during
the election results period (10 days incl results impact) by 5-9ppts. In the previous 6 months
leading up to the election week India outperformed before 2014 elections but was inline for
2019 elections. We note that in Dec-18 (i.e. 4-5 months before the 2019 national elections),
the BJP had lost 3 key state elections in the state of MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, yet won
the final national election in style.

We believe that political continuity is the most likely outcome, though the margin of victory
could be narrower. We therefore OWT on capex recovery plays including banks, industrial and
property. Our top picks are Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI, L&T, Ultratech and property and select
industrial mid-caps including Thermax, KEI, Siemens & Kajaria. We also tactically OWT staples
running up to the elections in the expectations of favourable rural policies. We believe that the Mahesh Nandurkar * | Equity Analyst
housing cycle will play out irrespective of the election outcome but the broader capex cycle 91 224224 6120 | mnandurkar@jefferies.com
might slow down in the event that ruling party changes and freebie politics emerges. We note Abhinav Sinha * | Equity Analyst
that even in the 2004 type of scenario of an election upset, the economy & the stock market 91 22 4224 6121 | abhinav.sinha@jefferies.com
were both back on track recouping the initial losses in 6 months' time. Nishant Poddar, CFA * | Equity Associate
+91 22 42246165 | npoddar@jefferies.com

Please see analyst certifications, important disclosure information, and information regarding the status of non-US analysts on pages 54 - 59 of this report.
* Jefferies India Private Limited
 Equity Strategy
Equity Research
August 30, 2023

Table of Contents
Executive Summary 3
Opposition unity to have a limited impact 3
Market movement post Dec'18 losses - a quick reversal was seen 4
What if 2004 were to repeat? 4
Negatives for the BJP - Weak rural recovery post pandemic & rising inflation 5
Freebie politics on the rise 5
Young population seems to support Modi 5
Expect strong business cycle to continue 6
Section 1: Political Continuity Likely 7
Modi remains popular but 2024 mandate might not be as strong 7
Mr Modi riding high on the strong economic trend and outlook 9
Some political set backs recently 12
Ten states account for 80% of seats for the BJP 15
Swing analysis – More to lose for the BJP 18
Did You Know? 21
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Section 2: Opposition is gearing up 22

Opposition is fragmented 23
Congress has gained some ground at the state level 23
The INDIA opposition 24
Can opposition unity drive seat wins? 27
Upcoming state elections can drive momentum 29
Section 3 : The X factors 33
Growing importance of social media 33
National elections vs state election voting 35
Concentration of popularity matters 36
Emotional issues 38
Section 4: Market Impact 41
How does the market behave around elections? 41
Market not building in potential political risks 44
The 2024 scenario 45
A possible repeat of 2004 is the key risk. 46
Housing theme is politics proof 48
Chances of some pro poor announcement ahead of 2024 budget 50

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 Equity Strategy
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Executive Summary

Our base case estimate is for the BJP to win between 251-300 seats, reaching close to a majority on
its own or with help from its NDA partners. This, though, should be a decline vs. the 303 seats won
in the 2019 elections. Prime Minister Modi remains the most popular leader in India. While some anti-
incumbency is likely post a decade-long rule for the BJP, particularly with rising inflation and weak rural,
we believe Mr. Modi's popularity should help the BJP to tide over these challenges. Rising opposition
focus on defeating the BJP, as visible in the I.N.D.I.A. alliance formation, should only make a small
impact on the party's prospects.

Opposition unity to have a limited impact The INDIA alliance adds allies to the erstwhile
26 opposition parties have come together to form the INDIA alliance for taking on the BJP for the 2024 Congress led UPA alliance primarily in 5 states
national elections. The INDIA alliance is a souped up version of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA)
which has been anchored by the Congress since 2004 elections, with varying partners. The UPA won
91 seats (out of 543) in 2019, and the newer allies of the UPA won another 64 seats back then, two
of which - Shiv Sena and JD(U) were the allies of BJP then. But these seats are anyway outside the
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303 which BJP won itself in 2019. The impact of this alliance formation will be visible on BJP's 303
to the extent that the unified opposition fields only one candidate as against 2/3 earlier and hoping to
transfer votes from 2/3 different parties to one single candidate. The impact of this new alliance would
be limited to only 6 states viz. West Bengal, Maharashtra, Delhi, Punjab and Bihar.

Calculating the adverse impact in Maharashtra and Bihar is difficult due to the pre-poll seat sharing
agreement between the BJP & Shi Sena/JDU. In the other 3, theoretical impact comes to -11 seats. The
real impact will be lower as the votes are seldom fully transferable and some political leader viz. CPI(M)
leader - Mr Yechury have already made some adverse comments. In Maharashtra, due the party split
in Shiv Sena, the adverse impact on the BJP will be likely much lower. Bihar, can be a swing state.

Exhibit 4 - New major Congress allies under INDIA alliance Theoretical impact of direct vote transfer is 11
seats for the BJP; though changing alliances in
Party State Impact on BJP
Bihar and some other states can take the hit to
❑ Assuming full transfer of votes among allies, 15-25 seats
constituency wise analysis shows loss of 10 seats for
Trinamool
West Bengal the BJP
Congress
❑ However, CPIM leaders indicate alliance with
Trinamool may not be workable in West Bengal
❑ Shiv Sena’s 18 seat tally was boosted by support from
Shiv Sena the BJP in 2019 polls
Maharashtra
(UBT) ❑ However, 13 of Sena’s 18 MPs have rebelled to ally
with BJP
❑ JDU’s 16 seat tally was boosted by support from the
BJP in 2019 polls
JDU Bihar
❑ However, some smaller JDU allies like RLJD allying
again with BJP
❑ Assuming full transfer of votes among allies,
constituency wise analysis shows loss of 1 seat for the
BJP in Punjab and Nil in Delhi
AAP Delhi, Punjab
❑ However, AAP may fight upcoming state elections
against Congress, local Delhi Congress leadership
comments against tie-up
.
Source: ECI, Jefferies
Several large state parties such as BJD (Odisha), YSRCP (Andhra), BRS (Telangana), TDP (Andhra & Several large state parties are out of both NDA
Telangana), BSP (UP & others) etc. staying away from the INDIA alliance. Overall, we expect the INDIA and INDIA alliance
alliance to make a difference of ~20 seats (15-25) to the BJP's likely 2024 tally.

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 Equity Strategy
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Market movement post Dec'18 losses - a quick reversal was seen BJP lost state elections in Dec'18 and a tough
Ahead of the 2024 national elections, five state elections will be held in late '23 and will be seen as fight is envisaged again in Dec'23
an indicator of BJP performance in 2024, with all of these states (MP, RJ, Chattisgarh, Telangana and
Manipur) having a substantial BJP presence. In 2018, the BJP lost power in the three states of MP,
Rajasthan and Chattisgarh to the Congress and the results came as a negative surprise.

The MSCI India underperformed the regional benchmark by 4ppt during the election results period.
However, the subsequent period until the national elections, saw the Indian markets perform inline with
the regional markets. Partly, as the elections neared, it became clearer that the voting patterns in the
national and state polls may differ. Indeed, BJP did a near clean sweep of these three states in the
national polls.

Exhibit 5 - Performance of India vs. region around and after the Dec18 state elections Market reversed the Dec'18 post poll losses by
115 the time 2019 elections were out

110

105

100
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95

90

85

80
Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19

MSCI AxJ MSCI India

.
Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, Jefferies
* MSCI India and MSCI AxJ in US$
What if 2004 were to repeat? 2004 was an unanticipated loss for the BJP
BJP led coalition – NDA – was expected to win the 2004 national elections. The then BJP leader and government
the prime minister Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee was quite a popular political leader and had brought in
several reforms. In many ways, his policies led to the solid economic growth beyond 2004. The opinion
polls indicated that the incumbent BJP would claim victory with a repeat mandate. The market did not
anticipate NDA’s defeat in the 2004 elections.

Exhibit 6 - MSCI India vs MSCI AxJ 1 year post 2004 elections After Underperforming initially, post the 2004
Both indices rebased to 100 on 1st May 2004
elections, Indian markets ended the year inline
130 with the regional markets

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

MSCI AxJ MSCI India

.
Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies
* MSCI India and MSCI AxJ in US$

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 Equity Strategy
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Post the adverse election outcome, Indian indices dropped by 10 ppts but relative to MSCI AxJ, the Continued strong economic performance post
markets underperformed by only 3ppts in the election result week. Popular sentiment that the new 2004 elections helped recoup the losses
government, particularly with communist party support, would find it difficult to continue with broad
market reforms and infrastructure development initiated by the BJP weighed down on market initially.
Six months later, however, India's underperformance had been reversed.

Negatives for the BJP - Weak rural recovery post pandemic & rising
inflation
The relatively weak rural economy could become a campaign point for the opposition. The rural wage
growth over the last several years have trended close to or below inflation. Meanwhile, the government
has also given low hikes to the Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) for key crops which are procured by
the government such as wheat and rice. Another possible campaign issue seen recently is the relatively
high inflation, particularly post COVID. While the Modi-1 government had done well to bring inflation
down from 10% to 4%, the same has risen and is currently at 7.4% - which is seen hurting the urban
poor disproportionately.

Freebie politics on the rise Several state governments offering direct

State elections over the past couple of years and state budget by opposition parties show a trend transfers and subsidies to attract voters
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towards rising direct transfers / ‘freebies’ as the key election promise made such as free electricity,
unemployment dole, higher monthly rations and subsidized loans / grants etc. The weak rural economy
and the high inflation may see some counter policies, which will come in the form of direct transfers
and / or subsidies.

Exhibit 7 - Major welfare policies ahead of national elections Large welfare scheme launch may happen in
Election Party Policy Jan'24 budget
2009 Cong National farm-loan waiver scheme
Rural employment guarantee expansion
2014 Cong National food security Act
Land acquisition law changes
2019 BJP Farmer basic income scheme
Higher MSP increase

. 2024E BJP Not Yet Known/Announced

Source: Jefferies
It is not only smaller parties that do freebie politics, but also the Congress and even the BJP have Welfare schemes support our tactical OWT
boosted handouts. Also, we note that the last few pre-election budgets have seen large welfare policy staples call
announcements with, for example, the BJP starting the ~US$10bn/annum PM Kisan scheme (Rs6,000/
farm holding/annum) in Feb'19. This should support our tactical OWT on staples which could do well
running up to the elections.

Young population seems to support Modi

Exhibit 8 - X Corp(Twitter) followers of political leaders Modi enjoys a strong social media following
100 (m)
90 90.0

80
70
60
50
40 33.5
27.1 25.6
30 24.0 23.7
18.7
20 13.1 12.7 11.7 9.0 8.4 8.4 7.2 7.0
10
0
Singh…
Kejriwal

Kumar
Akhilesh
Amit Shah

Gandhi

Sambit
Shivraj

Tharoor
Narendra

Rajnath

Piyush
Adityanath

Gadkari

Smriti Irani

banerjee
Nitish
Goyal
Arvind

Rahul

Mamta

Patra
Singh

Yadav

Sashi
Nitin
Modi

Yogi

.
Source: X Corp, Jefferies

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 Equity Strategy
Equity Research
August 30, 2023

There will be ~125m (12.5%) young first time votes for this election. More than 50% of the voting
population is under the age of 40, suggesting the youth vote is important for the political parties. On
this parameter, Mr. Modi is relatively well positioned. His social media following indicates a lead of 3-4x
among competitors such as Rahul Gandhi and Arvind Kejriwal. The digital India program of the BJP,
promotion of sports tournaments and a strong border policy are seen to be resonating with the youth
this should be a strong point favour of the BJP.

Expect strong business cycle to continue Capex cycle turn is durable and we OWT
The Indian economic cycle is usually driven by capex cycle which has turned positive in the last 2 years, domestic cyclicals
after close to a decade long slowdown. Indeed, GFCF (Gross Fixed Capital Formation or Investments)
as % of GDP has risen over FY22 and FY23, and set to rise further. Assuming our base case of
political continuity, the investment cycle should continue to unfold over the next several years. We
OWT domestic cyclicals - banks, industrial and property in the anticipation of this. We believe that a
strong housing cycle will play out irrespective of the election outcome given the strong demand-supply
situation and typical cycles being 6-8 years long. Broader capex cycle should also unfold, but slowly,
if the political dispensation were to change.

Exhibit 9 - GFCF as a % of GDP Capex as % GDP bottomed couple of years back

40.0 (%) and should rise over next few years, driving
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GFCF as a % of GDP
faster economic growth
35.8
34.7 34.3
35.0 33.6 34.0 33.4
32.8 33.2
31.3
30.7
29.9 30.1
29.5 28.9 29.2
30.0 28.3 28.3 28.7 28.2 28.2 28.5
27.5 27.3
26.0
25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

.
Source: CMIE, Jefferies
Exhibit 10 - Market Impact on various 2024 election scenarios

2024: Scenario Market Outcome Stocks

- This is the base case for the markets. 70% probability. Property & Capex Cylce plays:
Modi-led BJP - Continued strength in capex cycle driving strong economic growth including Cement, Infra & Cap
Majority Govt and investor sentiments. goods, Large Banks, SMID caps

-20% probability; BJP falls short of the majority by 20-30 seats but Property, Select capex plays
Modi-Led forms the government with the help of its partners inclduing L&T, cement,
Coalition - The populist pressure may rise but Modi's priorities unlikely to Discretionary consumption,
change

- 10% probability. 'INDIA' opposition alliance forms a weak and Staples, IT, Pharma. Domestic
populist government. cyclicals can be bought after the
Weak Coalition - A steep 10%+ market correction possible. Investor sentiments to be initial fall
impacted.
.
Source: Jefferies

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 Equity Strategy
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Section 1: Political Continuity Likely

India has enjoyed the political stability provided by a single party (BJP) majority since 2014 with Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi in the lead. The last
time a party and PM were elected for a third successive term was in 1962. Current popularity trends of Mr. Modi place him as the favorite for the PM
candidate. The Indian economy seems to be finally embracing a full blown capex cycle, after a decade and completion of several marquee projects would
be a key deliverable ahead of the 2024 national polls. There have been some political setbacks too, as the anti-incumbency impact is felt at the local level.
Overall, our base case is for Modi / BJP to return to power, though with a somewhat reduced mandate.

Modi remains popular but 2024 mandate might not be as strong Crossing majority mark of 272 for the third time
2014 victory of the BJP marked a turning point for India politically as it saw a single party majority in a will not be as easy as the first two times
national election after a gap of 30 years. In 2019, BJP returned to power with an even larger mandate
with 303 of the 543 seats won. The ensuing political stability has been used by the BJP to usher in
several reforms, many of which have been politically difficult decisions and may not have been possible
under a coalition government. The majority mark of 272 though may not be easy for the BJP to cross
this time as the party faces a somewhat more united opposition than previously and recent state
election reversals indicate anti-incumbency building up in sections of the society.
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Exhibit 11 - No. of seats won by the single largest party BJP is the only party to win full majority in 2
450 414 National elections in the last 35 years
No. of seats won by the ruling party
400
350
303
300 272 seats required to form govt. 282
244
250 206
197 182 182
200 161
145
150
100
50
0
1984 1989 1991 1996 1998 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019

Seats of largest party

.
Source: ECI, Jefferies
Exhibit 12 - PM Modi's performance rating PM Modi remains quite popular with approval
% rate Modi's performance as PM Outstanding / Good ratings...

80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
Sep14
Apr15

Aug17

Aug19

Aug21

Aug23
Aug16

Aug18

Aug20

Aug22
Feb16

Jan17

Jan18

Jan19

Jan20

Jan21

Jan22

Jan23

.
Source: India Today, Jefferies

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 Equity Strategy
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For the BJP, the biggest positive continues to be that PM Modi enjoys strong popularity among Indian ... consistently above 60%
voters. Indeed, the opposition is perceived to lack a strong, consensus PM candidate to project. The
Mood-of-the-nation survey by the India Today group shows PM’s approval ratings at close to 70%.
Indeed, during the 2nd term, the PM has enjoyed average approval ratings of 69%, 10ppt above the
2014-19 term. Mr. Modi’s image as a hard worker from humble background, decisive leader and clean
track record, has burnished his appeal time.

A couple of early opinion polls (India TV-CNX, India Today-CVoter) suggests a somewhat stronger As per early opinion polls, NDA alliance - led by
outcome for the BJP; with the BJP’s coalition National Democratic Alliance (NDA) projected to win an BJP - expected to win 2024 elections...
average 312 seats. BJP itself is projected to win a majority 287-290 seats. The recently formed alliance
of opposition parties (INDIA) is projected to win ~185 seats, with 66-74 seats for the Congress; falling
significantly behind the 272 seat majority mark.

Exhibit 13 - Summary of opinion polls so far for 2024 elections ...with full majority again in 2024 elections
Non-aligned &
Independents
9%
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Congress
allies
21% BJP
53%

Congress Opinion poll

13% projected seats for
2024 elections :
Total 543
BJP allies
4%
.
Source: India Today-CVOTER, India TV - CNX, Jefferies

Same prime minister for 3 terms has happened in the past India's first PM Mr. Nehru won for three
A third successive term for Mr. Modi as PM would not be unprecedented; though quite rare. India’s first successive terms
Prime Minister, Mr. Jawaharlal Nehru, was the PM for four successive terms, spanning nearly 20-years;
with him being re-elected thrice consecutively. Ms. Indira Gandhi had also been elected to the PM’s post
thrice (1967, 71 and 80); although the third term wasn’t successive. Both were Congress party leaders.

Exhibit 14 - Party in power since Independence Jawaharlal Nehru (4) and Indira Gandhi (3) has
served as PM for more than 2 terms

1947 1952 1957 1962 1966 1971 1977 1980 1984 1989 1991 1996 1998 2004 2009 2014 2019

Party in power

Congress BJP coalition Congress coalition BJP

.
Source: Jefferies

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 Equity Strategy
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Mr Modi riding high on the strong economic trend and outlook A cyclical upturn, as evident in the rising capex
India is currently at the start of what can potentially be a multi-year economic upcycle; with the housing upcycle, got underway since late'21
upturn well underway since late ’20 and the private corporate capex seeing an uptick. When Mr. Modi
became the PM in May’14, India’s broader economic cycle, as defined by the capex cycle, had just
started a prolonged slump. There was a large housing and private corporate sector capex boom, which
ended in 2013, resulting in significant inventory overbuild with property developers and low capacity
utilization with the manufacturing sector. Also, several reforms like the bankruptcy Act, GST rollout,
RERA implementation etc. had disrupted the near term growth in his first term.

Exhibit 15 - A booming economy in India

Formalization/ digitalisation Housing upturn in place

India’s UPI, UID driving fast digital Residential upcycle started late’20; Has
payment adoption; Rising market 5+ year to run with inventories at 12-yr
share of organized players lows
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Manufacturing boost Broad-based capex upcycle

US$35bn Production Linked
Booming Housing & govt. capex strong;
Incentive scheme, China+1 strategy Economy Corporate in early stage of rise with
driving mfg uptick cap.util at decade highs

Corporate D/E at low NPL’s low, Banks well capitalized

0.6x debt/equity ratio near all-time Bank bad asset ratio at 4%, down from
lows, significant headroom to gear 11% in FY18; Banks Tier-I capital at 15% -
. up for capex record high levels
Source: Jefferies

Factors enabling the investment cycle are the strength of the corporate and banking sector balance Qualitative improvements such as digitisation,
sheet. Corporate sector has undergone a massive deleveraging cycle over FY15-FY23 and the current formalisation of economy, alongside low debt
D/E is at an all-time low of 0.6x. Clearly, the corporate sector has a capacity to borrow and invest. On levels for corporate and strong balance sheet
the other hand, the banking sector has gone through a massive NPL cycle when NPL’s peaked at 11% for banks are all visible now
in the year 2018. Since then NPL’s have come down to 4% and trending further down. Banks have also
beefed up the equity capital and now the tier I capital adequacy of the sector is at an all time high hinting
that the banks have the capacity to lend. The rising property cycle is acting as the bridge to improve
the risk appetite in the economy driving banks to lend and corporate to borrow.

The Indian economy has also seen a qualitative improvement as government policies drive higher
formalization. Government's promotion of the India public digital goods infrastructure (Aadhaar, UPI,
ONDC etc.), alongside policy changes such as rolling out the GST reform have helped quickened the
pace of formalization in the economy. The government has also rolled out schemes such as the
Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme to push manufacturing (e.g. in smartphones wherein India
is now assembling iPhones) - is helping to drive job creation and also improving the job conditions as
more of the economy becomes organized and rules driven.

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Exhibit 16 - Scorecard of Modi's two tenure Structural economic improvement is among

the key wins for the Modi government
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.
Source: Jefferies
Exhibit 17 - PM Modi inaugurating the 1st Vande Bharat train PM Modi himself associates with
transformative projects such as upgradation of
Indian railways

.
Source: PIB, Jefferies

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The fiscal tilt of the Modi-2 government has very much been on infrastructure development, with some Significant step up in infra investments by
visible progress. Mr. Modi, for example, has associated himself with the launch of the new European government done in 2019-24 term
styled 'Vande Bharat' passenger railway trains. There are several large projects in advanced stages of
completion touching multiple parts of the country, which are likely to see openings during 2023-2024,
in the run-up to the national elections. These include Delhi-Mumbai expressway, Mumbai Trans Harbor
Link, Mumbai coastal road, Navi Mumbai International Airport, Metro trains across several large cities
etc.

Exhibit 18 - Key infrastructure projects of Modi 2019-2024 tenure Key infrastructure projects under Modi
Key infrastructure projects of Modi 2019-2024 tenure government will be an important poll plank for
Introduction of 100 Vande Bharat passenger trains
the BJP
New metro lines in 20+ cities
Construction of new 1000Km+ Delhi-Mumbai expressway
New International Airports in Mumbai and Delhi (NOIDA)
Trans Harbor Sea Link (22Km) in Mumbai
Chenab River Railway bridge (world's highest)
Char Dham (pilgrimage) highway in Himalyan terrain
Mumbai-Nagpur 700Km Expressway
New parliament building and complex in Delhi

. Progress on Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed Rail project

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Source: Jefferies
Arguably, the second tenure of the Mr. Modi has seen somewhat lesser number of large new social Social schemes announcements were more
schemes announced. However, there are a few large ones which have again followed the saturation dominant in first term of Mr. Modi, but
strategy and are quite meaningful among the lower economic strata. These include, household water- execution has gathered pace on housing, water
connection (‘nal se jal’) scheme, expansion of health insurance programs (Ayushman Bharat & Jan and health insurance schemes during the
Aushadhi), the conclusion of Housing for all schemes, the successful delivery of COVID vaccines, extra second term
food rations during COVID years etc.

Exhibit 19 - Modi government's popular policies Saturation styled social schemes on basic but
Modi 1 (2014-19) Popular Policies Modi 2 (2019-24) Popular Policies tangible benefits has been Modi's policy goal
Financial Inclusion (PMJDY) Extra ration schemes during COVID
Ujjwala (free gas cylinder) scheme Free COVID vaccines (2bn doses)
Clean India (toilets in each home) Clean water (piped water in each home)
Housing for All Housing for All - Execution continued
Power for all India / Rural electrification Health insurance programs (Ayushman Bharat)
Small enterprenuer Loan scheme (Mudra)

. Farmer income transfer scheme

Source: Jefferies
Another aspect of Mr. Modi’s tenure has been the focus devoted to boosting India’s image abroad, PM Modi's international efforts seen to have
particularly through highly visible foreign tours of the PM where he has visited the major Western boosted India's image abroad
countries multiple times during his 2 tenures. Indeed, the 2023 visit to the USA received significant
publicity with India making a strong outreach amidst changing geo-political situations to align closer
with the USA and the Western block. The perceived warm welcome to the PM abroad by world leaders
is seen as boosting India’s image on the global stage. At home, the ongoing G20 presidency for India
has been used as a showcase event with various G20 events spread across 32 cities in the country.

Targeted completion of the Ram Temple at

Finally, the BJP is also likely to make a push to deliver on its campaign promise of construction of the Ayodhya in early'24 will act as emotional
Ram Temple at Ayodhya. This issue has been seen as core to the party since late 80s/early 90s and support to BJP's pitch
with the temple scheduled for completion in Mar-Apr’24; the event will be seen a significant deliverable
to the party’s core voter base, particularly in its stronghold of the Hindi heartland.

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PM Modi with Joe Biden in Washington Mr. Modi has made several high profile foreign
visits with positive outcome for India
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.
Source: PIB, Jefferies
Exhibit 20 - Nifty during Modi-2 and key events

21000

Petrol / Diesel Karnataka

prices cross Bihar ally / election loss
RBI starts
19000 Rs100/ltr power loss
hiking rates

17000
Second
COVID wave RBI ends
BJP regains
rate hike
15000 powers in
Vaccination BJP wins UP Maharashtra
broad-basing elections
COVID lockdowns
13000 Major capex
start expanding
push in budget FIIs sell US$20bn but
strong domestic flows
support market
11000
10 new PLI
Modi re- schemes added
Corporate
elected
tax cuts
9000
Mobile PLI
scheme
announced
7000
Govt / RBI
announce
COVID relief
5000
Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23

Nifty
.
Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies

Some political set backs recently BJP has lost a few state elections post 2019
Even as Mr. Modi’s popularity has stayed high, the BJP has seen a few political reversals at the state national elections
government level. The state elections are largely fought considering the local leadership and issues
most pertinent to that state. We also note that the outcomes for state and national elections from the
same constituency are often different. Nonetheless, a perception of BJP losing power at state levels
can develop into a larger national narrative for ‘change’. States where BJP / NDA has seen a political set-
back post May’19 include in North (Himachal Pradesh, Punjab), East (Jharkhand) and South (Karnataka,
Tamil Nadu).

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Exhibit 21 - BJP / NDA seat and vote share in state elections reversals since May19 BJP lost its seat share in some recent key state
* Change in alliance partners
elections, however was able to maintain vote
State Seat share (%) Vote share (%)
share in some of them
Pre-May19 Post-May19 Pre-May19 Post-May19
Jharkhand 45.7 30.1 31.3 33.4
Tamil Nadu (NDA) 58.1 33.3 40.9 40.1
Himachal Pradesh 64.7 36.8 48.8 43.0
Punjab (NDA)* 15.4 1.7 30.6 7.7
Karnataka 46.4 29.5 35.6 36.0
.
Source: ECI, Jefferies
An analysis of the political reversals for the BJP though does not suggest any significant decline in the Retaining vote shares amidst seat loss
party’s popularity. The states where the BJP was in direct contention against the opposition and lost indicates core voter base is still intact for the
power (Jharkhand and Karnataka); the party actually saw its vote share increase in the latter two states, BJP
indicating that the core voter base of party has not faded. Even in UP, the 2022 seat count was smaller
than the 2017 one by 12ppt, even as party vote share went up by nearly 4ppt to 45%. The reason for
the seat declines in such cases are then localized to state elections / local leadership & alliances etc.
The outcome for a national level can be much different.

Post 2019 general election NDA lost power to

Exhibit 22 - States that BJP lost post 2019 National election opposition in HP, Jharkhand, Karnataka and
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Maharashtra, However it regained government

in Maharashtra after a split in regional party

.
Source: ECI, Jefferies

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Turnover in political allies for the BJP Loss of a few long term allies limits the broader
Part of the political setback for the BJP has been a churn in its alliance partners. Three states where NDA alliance reach in 2024
BJP has seen a loss of its long term allies are Punjab (Shiromani Akali Dal or SAD), Maharashtra (Shiv
Sena) and Bihar (Janata Dal United). In the latter two states, the BJP had seen loss of the alliance
partner despite fighting the 2019 national elections as well as the ensuing state elections. In both these
states, the leader of the local partner formed a government in an alliance with the opposition, with the
party leader in the Chief Minister post.

Exhibit 23 - Major long-term allies which have left the BJP

Seats
Party Leader State Comment
(2019)

NDA member from 1998 but broke the alliance

Shiv Sena Maharashtra 18 in 2019 to form Maharashtra govt. with NCP &
Congress. Party split 2022. Part of India alliance

NDA member from 2003-13 and again from

Janata Dal
Bihar 16 2017-2022. Currently aligned with opposition
United (JDU)
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RLD & Congress. Part of INDIA alliance

Telugu Desam Andhra Pradesh, NDA member over 1998-2004 and 2014-2018.
3
Party (TDP) Telangana Not part of INDIA alliance

NDA member from 1998-2020. Split with the BJP

Shiromani
Punjab 2 for 2021 state polls and has been away since.
Akali Dal (SAD)
Not part of INDIA alliance
.
Source: Jefferies
The political realignments though have, fortunately for the BJP, not been a one-way street. BJP’s Room exists for the BJP to forge more political
biggest success in changing political alignments have come in Maharashtra (2nd largest state alliances under the NDA
politically) wherein it was able to ally with a breakaway faction of the Shiv Sena, and win back power in
the state. Indeed, in Maharashtra the BJP also succeeded in allying with a similar breakaway faction of
its long term opposition, the NCP. In Punjab, while BJP lost SAD, it has seen several leading Congress
leaders from the state (including Mr. Amarinder Singh, ex Chief Minister of Punjab), join the party.
Madhya Pradesh, where Congress had won power from the BJP in 2018, saw a breakaway faction of
the Congress led by Mr. Jyotiraditya Scindia, join the party and come back to power in the state. In
Bihar, a JDU leader Mr. Upendra Kushwaha has recently aligned with the BJP.

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Exhibit 24 - Significant existing and new alliance of the BJP

This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited.

.
Source: Election commission on India, Jefferies

Ten states account for 80% of seats for the BJP 10 states, predominantly in Northern
The BJP’s origination in the 80s and 90s has predominantly been from the ‘Hindi heartland’ states and Western India remain key to BJP's
of North and Central India. Significant attempts have been made over the last decade to attempts performance
to broaden its presence among the regions with relatively weaker presence viz. the South Indian and
Eastern Indian states. The party did see a modestly improved outcome in 2019 with the Top-10 states
accounting for 80.5% of its seats tally (244 out of 303) vs. an 85.0% proportion (240 out of 282) in
the 2014 elections. Nonetheless, concentration remains high and we evaluate party’s prospects in key
states below.

The key seat driver for the BJP remains the 'Hindi heartland' - essentially North West India, where the The core states could see ~10% or 20 seat
BJP party and Mr. Modi traditionally derive the highest cultural affinity. Uttar Pradesh (UP) remains key loss in 2024, partly due to anti-incumbency and
to political fortunes across India, but most so for the BJP. A joint opposition strategy last time did not partly on the joint INDIA alliance strategy of the
yield much results and with the same not being repeated (BSP staying out) in 2024, BJP should likely opposition
see 63-70 of the 80 seats here. Mr. Yogi, BJP's UP Chief Minister, is also quite popular.

The Yogi-Modi ticket helping shore up UP for the BJP

Uttar Pradesh continues to be the politically most important state for the BJP, and indeed for any
political outcome in India. The BJP is on a strong footing in the state thanks to the popularity of its
Chief Minister in the state Mr. Yogi Adityanath. Indeed, under Yogi, BJP became the first party to come
back to power in UP in 2022 after a gap of 37 years. Also, despite a decline in seats vs. prior elections
(though still retaining a majority in the state), BJP’s vote share increased by 4ppt to 45.0%.

Yogi’s image in the state has often drawn comparisons to Mr. Modi’s rise in Gujarat in the 90s/00s.
Crackdown on crime by the UP states administration has been a visible policy with actions such
as destruction of unauthorized property and capture / death of wanted criminals gaining national

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coverage. Mr. Yogi has also worked to enhance the investment climate of the state with, for example,
organizing ‘Invest UP’ summit akin to earlier ‘Vibrant Gujarat’ summit done by Mr. Modi.

Exhibit 25 - BJP seat estimate for 2024 election

BJP seat range

State/region No. of seats BJP (2014) BJP (2019) Comments
in 2024
Large states with strong BJP presence
Uttar Pradesh 80 71 62 63-70 Popularity of Modi, Yogi and Ram temple completion
Maharashtra 48 23 23 20-22 Shifting political alliances, but BJP remains strong
Bihar 40 22 17 10-15 Loss of alliance partner JDU to impact seats
Madhya Pradesh 29 27 28 22-25 Some anti-incumbency at local level
Karnataka 28 17 25 15-20 Heavy defeat in state poll, but central more optimistic
Gujarat 26 26 26 25-26 Modi's home ground
Rajasthan 25 25 24 20-22 Local leadership challenge, Modi remains popular
Segment total 276 211 205 175-200
Other states with strong / rising BJP presence
West Bengal 42 2 18 10-12 Stronger united opposition
Odisha 21 1 8 8-10 Differential voting between state and centre
Telangana 17 1 4 3-5 Rising BJP popularity but strong opposition from BRS
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Jharkhand 14 12 11 10-12 JMM and Congress alliance may have some impact
Assam 14 7 9 8-10 Popular local government of BJP
North East Ex-of Assam 11 1 5 3-5 Recent violence an issue
Chhattisgarh 11 10 9 6-8 Local Congress govt seen to do well
Haryana 10 7 10 6-8 Some moderation expected
Delhi 7 7 7 6-7 United opposition unlikely a challenge to Modi
J&K (pre-split basis) 6 3 3 3 Jammu and Ladakh strongholds
Uttarakhand 5 5 5 5 BJP won recent local elections
Himachal Pradesh 4 4 4 4 Reversal in local elections, pension an issue
Other UTs & Goa 8 6 3 3-5
Segment total 170 66 96 75-94
States with weak BJP presence
Tamil Nadu 39 1 0 0-1 Usually state sees reversal; limited presence
Andhra Pradesh 25 2 0 0-2 Alliance with TDP, JSP can help
Kerala 20 0 0 0-1 Limited presence
Punjab 13 2 2 1-2 Congress leader migration, but AAP-Congress tieup
Segment total 97 5 2 1-6
. Grand total 543 282 303 251-300
Source: Jefferies
Exhibit 26 - PM Modi and UP CM Yogi in Investor summit in UP

.
Source: https://invest.up.gov.in/wp-content/gallery/investor-summit/pgimg-14.jpg, Jefferies

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Among other major states for the BJP, we see limited losses in Bihar and Maharashtra despite the
political realignments, including loss of allies for the BJP. Gujarat will likely see a repeat of the sweep.
The joint I.N.D.I.A. opposition and anti-incumbency (where BJP does not have very popular local
leaders) could lead to some erosion of seats in the other heartland states. Overall, we still see limited
damage (~20 seats) in the 'core' region (vs. 226 in 2019); helping to keep BJP in sight of a strong No.
1 / near majority position.

Exhibit 27 - BJP's 2024 seat expecttaions for key states

State /
Comment BJP Seats
Region
80
❑ Seats dipped by 9 to 62 (out of 80) between 2014 and 2019 70
71
62
63-70

amidst a joint opposition strategy. 60

50
❑ For 2024, so far, the BSP has not joined the opposition 40
Uttar Pradesh coalition; although it remains in opposition to the BJP. 30
20
❑ Additionally, BJP’s Chief Minister Mr. Yogi Adityanath is quite 10
popular among core voters 0
2014 2019 2024E
❑ BJP’s UP tally to stay high at 63-70 seats.
Uttar Pradesh

❑ Alliance partner JDU broke the alliance post the 2019

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elections and joined forces with RJD & Congress.

❑ Together JDU, RJD, Congress to pose challenge as INDIA
Bihar alliance. JDU’s caste survey push a positive for the party.
❑ Some breakup of JDU/smaller allies pre-2024 possible. Also,
BJP losses partly limited by lower ‘own’ seats.
❑ BJP to get 10-15 (of 40) seats from Bihar.
25 23 23
❑ Post the 2019 elections, BJP’s ally Shiv Sena migrated to the 20-22
20
rival Congress and NCP alliance to form the government in the
15
state. Part of INDIA alliance.
10
Maharashtra ❑ In a reversal, both the SS and NCP have split during 2022-23
5
with rebels aligning with the BJP.
0
❑ BJP, alongside rival factions of SS and NCP is in power. 2014 2019 2024E
❑ BJP likely to post 20-22 seats (of 48) in 2024. Maharashtra

30
26 26 25-26
25
❑ Gujarat has been the home ground of Mr. Modi and a clean 20
sweep of 26 seats has happened here in both 2014 and 2019. 15

Gujarat ❑ With the state repeatedly sending the BJP back to power since 10
5
1999 (including in 2022), we believe BJP is unlikely to see any
0
seat loss here in 2024 elections. 2014 2019 2024E

Gujarat

120
❑ The other Hindi heartland states (105 seats) may see small 100
97 98
79-90
Other Hindi losses for the BJP on anti-incumbency and somewhat weaker 80
Heartland (RJ, local leadership. 60
MP, JH, CG, ❑ Ex-Delhi and Jharkhand, the BJP is largely in a direct contest 40

HY, DL, UA, with the Congress, wherein a joint opposition is unlikely to 20

HP) make a significant dent in its vote share. 0

2014 2019 2024E
❑ BJP’s tally to be 79-90 seats vs. 98 in 2019.
Other Hindi Heartland (RJ, MP JH, CG, HY, DL, UA, HP)
.
Source: ECI, Jefferies

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The gains for the BJP in 2019 had come from an improvement in its 'non-core' states in East and South Large gains made in East India in 2019 by the
India, with the seats in the Eastern region (West Bengal, Odisha, North East) rising from 11 to 40 by BJP; though South India remained a difficult
2019. Further gains are unlikely, though a joint alliance and recent North Eastern state violence can geography
reduce this tally by a few seats.

Presence in South India, outside Karnataka, is limited though some visible progress has happened in
Telangana. We think of the 109 seats in the South, BJP may find it tough to exceed the 29 peak seen
in 2019.

Overall, we project a range of 251-300 seats for the BJP, with the mid-point implying a small majority,
in line with 2014.

Exhibit 28 - BJP's 2024 seat expectations for non-core states

State /
Comment BJP Seats
Region
50
❑ Success in the Eastern states saw BJP’s tally rise from 11 to 40 40
40
between 2014 to 2019. 29-37
East India 30
❑ West Bengal likely to see Trinamool Congress fight in alliance
(West Bengal, 20
with the Congress and Communist parties. 11
North East,
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10
❑ In the North-East, significant infrastructure development
Odisha) 0
happened though recent violence in Manipur a negative 2014 2019 2024E
❑ BJP’s East India tally to decline somewhat. East India (WB, NE, OD)

35
South India ❑ Party’s significant presence is in Karnataka with 25/28 seats 30
29
18-29
(Karnataka, won. Recent large losses in local elections to Congress show 25 21
20
Telangana, some anti-incumbency. 15
Andhra ❑ BJP has seen some gains in the Telangana in 2019 (4/17) but 10

Pradesh, incremental gains tougher. 5

0
Tamil Nadu, ❑ Limited presence / improvement elsewhere in 2024. 2014 2019 2024E
Kerala) ❑ Overall South India seats could be in 18-29 range. South India (KA, TG, AP, TN, KL)

12 11
10
8 7-10
❑ In Punjab former Congress leader Amarinder Singh is in BJP. 8

Others Though Congress and AAP in tie-up now. 6

(Punjab, Goa, ❑ J&K impact of state split to be seen. BJP has traditionally done 4
2
J&K, Uts) well in 3/6, see no change to that.
0
❑ Overall, 7-10 seat range of 2014-19 to be largely retained. 2014 2019 2024E

Others (PB, Goa, JK, UTs)

.
Source: ECI, Jefferies

Swing analysis – More to lose for the BJP A high base in 2019 make the BJP susceptible
The BJP’s victory on 303 seats last time was a fairly strong outcome with the party winning 37% of to small vote share losses having big impact
the overall India vote. We did a swing analysis to gauge the impact of a reverse voter swing (anti- on seats
incumbency essentially) on the party’s 2024 prospects. If BJP's vote share dropped by 1ppt with the
second best candidate getting all the vote in the particular constituency, then the total seats will drop
by 20. We checked for every ppt drop in voting share in the same scenario. The analysis suggests that
a 4ppt swing away in vote share from the BJP will translate to a loss in its single party majority with
only 270 total seats. Major seats drop is seen in U.P. with approximately 13% seats drop with just 2ppt
vote loss. Party has a strong hold in 7 states/UT - Arunachal Pradesh, Daman and Diu, Gujrat, Himachal
Pradesh, Delhi, Tripura and Uttarakhand where even upto 8ppt share drop has little impact.

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Exhibit 29 - Sensitivity - Incremental seats for the BJP vs incremental vote share gain BJP will gain only 6 additional seats with 2ppt
X-axis: Vote Share gain, Y-axis: Estimated no.of additional seats win
additional voteshare
25
22
20
20 18

15 13
12
10
10
6
5

0
2ppt 3ppt 4ppt 5ppt 6ppt 7ppt 8ppt

BJP Gain
.
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Source: Jefferies
Exhibit 30 - Sensitivity - Incremental seat loss vs incremental vote share loss BJP can lose majority if they lose about 4ppt
X-axis: Vote share lost, Y-axis: Estimated no.of seat loss
of vote share
70
61
60
53
50
42
40 37
31
30 24
20
20

10

0
2ppt 3ppt 4ppt 5ppt 6ppt 7ppt 8ppt

BJP Loss
.
Source: Jefferies

Holding on to vote share in core states will be

On the other hand, we also check for the reverse impact i.e. if BJP gains vote from the winning critical to 2024 outcome
opposition candidate. The gains are much smaller here with a 2 % share gain for the BJP yielding only
6 additional seats. This analysis is in a way a reflection of BJP’s depth in various states. The 2019
elections had seen the BJP nearly max out in several of its well penetrated states; and the ones where
it has a small presence (e.g. South India); the gulf is too wide to bridge by smaller vote swings. Clearly,
BJP won more seats with a narrow margin than the ones it lost. As such, we view holding on to vote
share in relevant geographies remains very important for 2024 performance.

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Exhibit 31 - General Election 2019 Exhibit 32 - State government ruling party - Aug'23
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. .
Source: ECI, Jefferies Source: ECI, Jefferies

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Did You Know?

• In 2019's elections, 912m people (1/8th of world population) were • Banej, a small settlement in the Gir Forest, Gujarat, has just one voter.
Mahant Bharatdas (64) is the only resident; the district government
eligible to vote an increase of 78m from 2009; 615m voted.
sets up a special polling booth, with five staff, just for him.

• There were 1 mn polling stations, 3.9m electronic voting machines

• Chandrani Murmu of BJD from Keonjhar constituency became the
(EVMs) and 11m people working on the ground.
youngest member at the age of 25 years, 11 months and nine days and
Shafiqur Rahman Barq of SP from Sambhal constituency became the
oldest member at the age of 89.
• The 2019 Lok Sabha elections were spread out in 7 phases over 39
days. This is the longest election in India.

• The lowest margin of victory was with a BJP candidate when

Bholanath managed to win the Machhlishahr seat in Uttar Pradesh by
• India’s highest altitude polling station was at 15,256ft in elevation
only 181 votes.
above sea level in Tashigang a Buddhist settlement near the Chinese
border.

• The BJP's CR Patil came close to shattering the all-time record of

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victory margin in a parliamentary election when he defeated his

• After Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi, Narendra Modi is the third
Congress rival in Gujarat's Navsari Lok Sabha seat by a difference of
prime minister of the country who has been able to retain power for a
689k votes -- the highest in the 2019 polls.
second term with full majority in Lok Sabha.

• Mallikarjun Kharge, a veteran Congress leader Popularly known as • Of the 543 MPs elected, 78 were women. This is the highest number of
women elected. 27 of the sitting 41 female MPs retained their seats.
"solillada Saradara", (a leader without defeat) lost his 1st ever election
in 2019, after winning all elections since 1972, he was defeated by

•
BJP's Umesh Jadhav in Gulbarga constituency.
Malkajgiri (Telangana) was the largest Lok Sabha constituency
by number of electors with 3,150,303 (as against 1,679,558 per
constituency on an average) and highest number of valid votes polled
• Bihar saw about 0.8m voters opting for the None of The Above (NOTA)
(1,563,646).
option - the highest in the country.

• US$502 million, is the value of cash, drugs, alcohol and goods • Dhubri, in Assam, had the highest voter turnout in 2019, at 90.66% and
the seat was won by AIUDF.
confiscated from politicians attempting to bribe voters with gifts.

• Designated expenses for each candidate were capped at Rs7.0m per • Anantnag, in J&K had the lowest voter turnout in 2019, at 9%. The seat
was won by J&K National Conference.
constituency in bigger states and Rs5.4m in smaller ones.

• In a first, candidates with criminal antecedents had to publish • 881 candidates with declared assets worth INR 50m or more
contested.
information in this regard in newspapers and through TV channels on
three occasions during the campaign period.

• More than 16 candidates declared zero assets.

• For the first time ever, 12 EVMs were used at every single polling

•
booth, in the Nizamabad district of Telangana, because a total of 185
Ramesh Kumar Sharma, an Independent candidate from the Patliputra
candidates were competing.
Lok Sabha seat in Bihar was the richest candidate in the 2019
elections with declared assets over INR 1.1 bn.

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Section 2: Opposition is gearing up

After being out of power for nearly ten years, the political opposition to the BJP is trying to present a united front. Several state level dynamics imply
that a pan-India unity remains highly unlikely, though the recent parliament session shows rising collaboration among the opposition. Nonetheless, the
opposition has notched up a few poll victories in 2023 and a litmus test would arrive in late ’23 when 5 states are up for elections. Opposition will look to
capitalize on anti-incumbency factors, try a new mix of caste & religion combinations and likely promise large direct income transfers to shore up their
votes. Our analysis suggests that the current 26 party I.N.D.I.A. opposition alliance can cause a loss of 15-25 seats to the BJP in the base case, though
there is still time to put up an even stronger front.

Exhibit 33 - India's key regional parties and influential states Of the 20 parties shown in the map, 11 are a
part of INDIA alliance. The balance 9 parties
add up to 60 seats
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.
Source: ECI, Jefferies, *numbers in bracket represent seats won in the 2019 general elections

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Ex of Congress, no other party won more than

Opposition is fragmented 4% seats in the 2019 national elections
With the BJP in majority in the Lok Sabha (lower house) for a decade, the opposition is trying to get
its act together. However, this is not an easy task with the opposition split substantially. The primary
national opposition i.e. the Congress party has averaged less than 50 seats in the last two elections.
Most of the other parties are limited to primarily one state, being state specific parties, and often
in opposition to the Congress or aligned locally with the BJP. Some other parties with multi-state
presence, e.g. CPI, BSP, AAP and NCP, do not have substantial vote shares beyond 2-3 states and thus
not a significant opposition.

Exhibit 34 - Current Lok Shaba Compsition Exhibit 35 - Current Rajya Sabha Composition

SP Shiv Sena BSP AAP, TDP, SAD Left parties SP, SS, Others
Left AAP
1% 4% 2% Others 3% 8%
parties 4%
4%
1% BRS BRS
JDU JDU
3% 2% Trinamool 3%
BJP 2% BJP
Other Cong 4% 38%
56%
allies (DMK, Trinamool
RJD, NCP) 6%
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5%
Congress Other Cong
9% allies (DMK,
YSRCP
4% BJD RJD, NCP)
Other BJP allies 8% Other BJP
2%
(ADMK, RPI etc) allies (ADMK,
3% RPI etc)
. Congress
YSRCP BJD Nominated
Source: ECI, Jefferies 13% 5%
4% 4% 2%
.
Source: ECI, Jefferies

Alongside allies and on its own, Congress has

Congress has gained some ground at the state level wrested power from the BJP in a few states
BJP’s primary opposition the Congress has been trying to drive a revival in the own party, alongside post 2019
their efforts to get the like-minded / anti-BJP parties together. On its own, the Congress has seen some
improvement in its electoral prospects. Since 2019 national elections, the Congress has defeated BJP
to regain power in Himachal Pradesh (Dec22) and Karnataka (May23). Along with allies, the Congress
has won against the BJP alliance in the state of Tamil Nadu (2021). Ahead of the 2019 elections, the
Congress had also defeated BJP in states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh (BJP later gained power) and
Chattisgarh. These three states are up for elections later in Dec’23. Overall, state election patterns do
suggest some revival in Congress fortunes from the lows seen prior to 2019.

Exhibit 36 - Strong wins by Congressin party in state elections Congress' key victories over BJP post 2019
States Election Date Election Outcome elections have come in Karnataka and
Chhastisgarh Nov'18 Congress wins over BJP by a huge margin Himachal Pradesh on its own
Madhya Pradesh Nov'18 Close fight between Congress and BJP, Congress forms government but later broken

Rajasthan Nov'18 Congress wins over BJP with close to majority seats

Himachal Pradesh Dec'22 Congress wins by a strong margin

Karnataka May'23 Congress wins with a huge margin

Tamil Nadu Dec'21 Congress+ allies wins with a comfortable margin

.
Source: ECI, Jefferies

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From a leadership perspective, the Congress party has also seen some changes, though not far- Leadership is officially no longer with the
reaching ones since 2019. The party had fought the May19 elections with Mr. Rahul Gandhi as the Gandhi family in the Congress party
presumptive PM candidate and the main campaigner. Post the electoral losses; Rahul resigned from
the Congress party president post. Mrs. Sonia Gandhi stepped in as in ‘interim’ chief post that. Mrs.
Priyanka Gandhi has also taken a more active role in party activities over the last few years which
included being officially in charge of UP elections of 2022 and taking an active part in the 2022 Himachal
Pradesh state polls.

The lack of full time leadership in the party led to some senior leaders protesting for changes in the
party in 2020 which finally led to leadership elections in the party. Mr. Mallikarjun Kharge (earlier leader
of opposition) was appointed as the Congress party chief in Oct ’22. Mr. Kharge has continued to work
quite closely with the Gandhi family. An expansion of the Congress Working Committee was also carried
out in Aug 23, with several inductees part of the ‘rebel’ group including Mr. Shashi Tharoor and Mr.
Sachin Pilot. Mr. Rahul Gandhi, meanwhile, remains the key campaigner / leader for the Congress party
with a well publicized ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ (cross nation walk) being done by him in 2022 and planned
again in 2023.

Exhibit 37 - Key Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi remains the most visible
Constituency Congress leader
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Leader Comment
(2019)
❑ Rahul Gandhi resigned from the party
president post in 2019.
Waynad, Kerala
❑ He is the most visible campaign leader for
the party and likely PM candidate

❑ Sonia Gandhi was the interim president

from 2019-2022.
Rae bareli, UP
❑ Has adopted a restrained role post 2019,
partly due to health issues.

❑ Priyanka Gandhi formally adopted an

Not a Member
active role in politics from 2019,
of Parliament
particularly in the UP state 2022 elections

❑ Mallikarjun Kharge was elected as the

Rajya Sabha
party president in 2022.
(Upper House),
❑ He runs the party in close consultation
MP from
with the Gandhi family, among other
Karnataka
senior leaders
.
Source: Jefferies

The INDIA opposition 26 parties, including the Congress, have come

A strong challenge to the BJP is being made for the 2024 elections by the opposition through a large together to take on the BJP under the INDIA
26 party I.N.D.I.A. (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance). Congress had fought the 2019 alliance
elections as part of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA). However, this was largely limited to the long-
term Congress allies (such as DMK in Tamil Nadu and RJD in Bihar). Comparatively, the INDIA alliance
brings together some of Congress’ state level opposition parties as well, including the AAP (against
Congress in Delhi and Punjab), the Trinamool Congress (West Bengal) and the Communist Party of
India (West Bengal, Kerala) among the more prominent names.

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Exhibit 38 - I.N.D.I.A. (ex-Congress) alliance members

Seats
Party Leader State Comment
(2019)

DMK has been a Congress ally and part of UPA

DMK Tamil Nadu 24 for bulk of post 1999 period and currently in
alliance to rule Tamil Nadu

Trinamool has been in power in West Bengal

Trinamool
West Bengal 22 since 2011. BJP has assumed the principal
Congress
opposition role in WB since 2019

Shiv Sena NDA member from 1998 but broke the alliance
(Uddhav Maharashtra 18 in 2019 to form Maharashtra govt. with NCP &
faction) Congress. Party split 2022.

NDA member from 2003-13 and again from

Janata Dal
Bihar 16 2017-2022. Currently aligned with opposition
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United (JDU)
RLD & Congress. Part of INDIA alliance

Left Parties Left parties are anti-BJP for long though a seat
Kerala, West
(CPIM, CPI, 5 sharing alliance with Congress / Trinamool in
Bengal
AIFB) Kerala / WB will be a first

Opposed to the BJP; SP has fought the 2019

Samajwadi
Uttar Pradesh 5 national election in an alliance with the Congress
Party (SP)
in UP

Traditional Congress ally; a faction led by Ajit

NCP (Sharad
Maharashtra 5 Pawar joined the Shiv Sena (Shinde) and BJP’s
Pawar faction)
government in Maharashtra in 2023

Party has so far opposed Congress in Delhi,

Aam Aadmi
Delhi, Punjab 1 Punjab and other states; Upcoming state
Party (AAP)
elections will be a test of alliance

Others (RJD, Bihar, Jharkhand,

JMM, JKNC, Kerala, J&K, ~10 Limited new activity compared to 2019 elections
PDP, IUML etc) North East etc
.
Source: Election Commission of India, Jefferies

INDIA alliance was active in the recent

The alliance has seen some activity as a common platform when during the parliament session of Jul- parliament sessions in trying to oppose BJP
Aug23 the alliance partners (alongside few other BJP opposed parties) voted jointly against some bills driven bills
in the upper house of parliament. For example, the Delhi services bill garnered 102 votes (vs. 130 for
the BJP) – among the highest ever votes gathered by an opposition. Also, the opposition brought forth
a ‘no-confidence motion’ against the BJP government in the lower house, despite the defeat being a
forgone conclusion, as the INDIA alliance tries to build up momentum ahead of the 2024 polls.

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Exhibit 39 - 2019 BJP Manifesto Exhibit 40 - 2019 Congress Manifesto

• Infrastructure • Infrastructure
• Double the length of national highways. Improve fuel quality • Augment and rapid construction of national highways.
by mandating 10 percent ethanol in petrol. Scale renewable Modernise Indian railway infrastructure.
energy capacity to 175 GW.
• Electrify and convert to broad gauge all railway tracks.
• Economics
• Promote green energy. Manufacturing promotion.
• Economics
• Revise the national GST law from three tax tiers to a single
• Raise India's ranking further in "ease of doing business". moderate rate of tax. Reduce taxes on exported products to
Double exports, introduce single-window compliance zero. Exempt from the GST essential goods and services that
procedures for all businesses. are currently not exempt. Enact a new Direct Taxes Code.

• National Security • National Security

• Privatisation of defence, space and agriculture sector for • Amend the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, 1958. End the
development of India. Sedition law (Section 124A of the Indian Penal Code).
• Zero tolerance for terrorism, fund resources to strengthen • Increase defence spending.
national security, guarantee veterans, and soldier welfare,
modernise police forces.
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• Housing & Women Welfare

• Enact a Right to Homestead Act that will provide free land to
• Housing & Women Welfare
every household that does not own a home..
• Ensure a pucca (lit. brick-solid, modern) house, safe potable
water, toilet, LPG gas cylinder, electricity, and banking
account for every family. Reduce the percentage of families • Agriculture
living under the poverty line to a single digit by 2024. • Enact a permanent National Commission on Agricultural
Development and Planning and introduce a "Kisan Budget"
• Agriculture (Farmer Budget) in the parliament every year. Waive all
farmer loans in all states with any amounts outstanding.
• Double farmer incomes by 2022 by completing all major and
micro-irrigation infrastructure projects, opening adequate
markets and modern farm produce storage centres, • Identity and J&K
implement minimum price supports for farmer produce, • Preserve special status and special rights to natives of Jammu
farmer loans and all-weather rural roads. and Kashmir under Article 370 and 35A.

• Identity and J&K • Social Security

• Implementation of a nationwide NRC exercise to identify & • Introduce a Nyuntam Aay Yojana welfare program
deport undocumented immigrants wherein ₹72,000 (US$900) per year will be transferred
• End special status and special rights to natives of by directly to the bank account of a woman-member in each
abrogating Article 370 and Article 35A of the Constitution of family in the poorest 20 percent households.
India. • Enact a Right to Healthcare Act and guarantee every citizen
free diagnostics, free medicines, free hospitalisation, and free
• Social Security out-patient care. Double spending on healthcare to 3 percent
of its GDP by 2024.
• Introduce a pension bill for small and marginal farmers to
provide social security after 60 years of age.
• Establish 150k health & wellness centres. Start 75 new
medical colleges. Raise doctor-to-population ratio to 1:1400.
Achieve 100 percent immunisation of all babies.
.
Source: BJP Website, Jefferies .
Source: Congress Webiste, Jefferies

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INDIA alliance can impact the BJP in 15-25

Can opposition unity drive seat wins? seats as compared to the 2019 elections
Our analysis of the opposition unity does indicate some loss for the BJP, but likely limited to about
15-25 seats. We have assumed that the alliance partner members put up a unified candidate against
the BJP in the respective constituencies. The losses for the BJP could primarily come from the state of
West Bengal, where the BJP can lose ~10 seats of the 18 it won in 2019 as the opposition was relatively
fractured with the Congress /left parties in opposition to the ruling Trinamool. The other potential large
impact can come from two other major past BJP allies shifting viz. the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and the
JDU in Bihar. Real impact is tough to evaluate given the seat share agreements in 2019 and subsequent
splits / likely breakaway’s in these parties.

Exhibit 41 - Non-aligned parties

Seats
Party Leader State Comment
(2019)

YSRCP has consistently supported the NDA in

YSR Congress
Andhra Pradesh 22 parliament but is against the BJP at the state
Party
level
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Biju Janta Dal BJD remains consistent supporter of the NDA in

Odisha 12
(BJD) parliament but in opposition at the state

BSP fought 2019 national and 2022 UP state

Bahujan Samaj
Uttar Pradesh 10 election alongside Congress & SP but not
Party (BSP)
aligning with them for 2024

Bharat Rashtra Earlier in support of the NDA, the party has

Telangana 9
Samiti (BRS) started voted against the govt. recently

Janata Dal Opposed to both the BJP and Congress at state

Karnataka 1
Secular (JDS) level, JDS stance has stayed ambivalent
.
Source: Election commission of India, Jefferies

What can opposition contest on ? Rise of 'freebie' politics by state parties is an

The opposition parties to the BJP have traditionally been more socialist in their policies. State elections indicator
over the past couple of years and state budget by opposition parties show a trend towards rising direct
transfers / ‘freebies’ as the key election promise made such as free electricity, unemployment dole,
higher monthly rations and subsidized loans / grants etc. Recent years have also seen relatively high
inflation which may see some counter policies, particularly for the urban poor including promises of
higher minimum wages. Indeed, it is not only smaller parties such as AAP or TRS that make these
promises, but also the Congress and even the BJP has indulged in boosting handouts.

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Exhibit 42 - State election Poll promises Populist poll promises by state governments
State Party Policy implemented recently
Maharashtra BJP Rs6,000/farmer direct transfer scheme
MP BJP Rs1,000/mth income transfer to women
Rajasthan Cong Doubling free units of electricity to 100
Allocation to NPS cut to near zero
Chhattisgarh Cong Rs2,500/mth to educated unemployed
Rs6,000/annum to landless labourers
Karnataka Cong 200 units/mth free electricity
Rs2,000/mth to female head of family
Rs3,000/mth for unemployed grads for 2-years,
Rs1,500/mth for unemployed diploma holders for 2-
years
Transfer of Rs0.1m-1.0 to each backward household
Telangana BRS
as one time grant
Rs10,000/acre/annum subsidy to farmers
Punjab AAP 300/units/mth free electricity
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Rs1,500/acre sowing support for rice

.
Source: ECI, Jefferies
Also, the relatively weak rural economy could become a campaign point. The rural wage growth Specific schemes targeting farmers,
over the last several years have trended close to or below inflation. Meanwhile, the government has pensioners, government employees etc is a
also given low hikes to the Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) for key crops which are procured by possibility
the government such as wheat and rice. Another possible campaign issue, impacting mostly the
government employees, can be the return to the defined benefit pension scheme which may have
significant long term fiscal implications.

Exhibit 43 - A freebie scheme in Rajasthan Freebie politics can be a big campaign tool e.g.
Rajasthan state govt. (Congress run) ahead of
elections offering free smartphone, alongside
3-year free data connections, to 13.5m women
in a scheme worth ~US$0.8bn

.
Source: Government of Rajasthan, Jefferies

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Exhibit 44 - BJP Policies which saw strong opposition protests A few BJP policies have seen relatively large
BJP policies which have seen opposition protests scale protests post 2019

Return to old pension scheme for govt. employees

Minimum Support Price law for several crops
Reversion to permanent recruitement in Armed forces
No changes to Citizenship Act
Against the implementation of Common Civil Code
.
Source: Jefferies
Exhibit 45 - State Government map - Aug'19 Exhibit 46 - State Government map - Aug'23
This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited.

. .
Source: ECI, Jefferies Source: ECI, Jefferies

Upcoming state elections can drive momentum 5 state elections around Nov-Dec'23
A ‘semi-final’ for the 2024 elections will be played out in the Nov-Dec’23 when elections to five states
are held. These 5 states together account for 15% of the lower house seats and are thus significant. In 3
of the states viz. Chhattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan – the BJP is in a direct contest against the Congress.
The Telangana state will likely see a three cornered fight between ruling BRS and the oppositions
Congress and BJP. The Mizoram state, though small politically, will also be seen as a signal to BJP’s
North Eastern dominance given the recent spate of violence in neighboring Manipur.

Exhibit 47 - State Election calendar before 2019 National elections BJP is either in power or the number 2 party in
% Rajya Sabha all of the 5 upcoming state elections
State Likely election date % LS In-power / Election outcome
(Upper house)
Chhatisgarh Nov-Dec'23 2.0 2.0 Congress
Madhya Pradesh Nov-Dec'23 5.3 4.5 BJP
Mizoram Nov-Dec'23 0.2 0.4 BJP coalition govt
Rajasthan Nov-Dec'23 4.6 4.1 Congress
Telangana Nov-Dec'23 3.1 2.9 TRS

. Total upcoming 15.3 13.9

Source: ECI, Jefferies.

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Voters can vote differently between state and

We, however, wont lay too much importance on the state election results. Even in 2018, the BJP saw national elections
losses in the states of MP, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh but the subsequent national elections saw BJP
nearly sweeping all the seats in these states. Our analysis of the 7 state elections held in 2018/19
before national election reveals that national parties gain considerable vote share in national elections
vs state elections. A lot depends on which national party is able to win share from regional party. During
2018/19 – BJP was a massive beneficiary of the vote shift from local to national parties. Congress
party also had a higher vote share & seats won in 3 out of 7 state elections.

Exhibit 48 - Rajasthan - State Election vs National Election (Vote Share) Exhibit 49 - Rajasthan - State Election vs National Election (Seats Won)

70% 120%
59% Rajasthan Rajasthan
60% 96%
100%
50%
39% 40% 80%
40% 35%
60% 50%
30% 37%
15% 40%
20%
10% 2% 2% 4% 1% 3% 20% 9%
0% 2% 4% 3% 0% 0%
0% 0%
BJP INC RLP BSP Others BJP INC RLP BSP Others
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State Election - 2018 National Election - 2019 State Election - 2018 National Election - 2019
. .
Source: ECI, Jefferies Source: ECI, Jefferies
*BJP: Bhartiya Janata Party, INC: Indian National Congress *BJP: Bhartiya Janta Party, INC: Indian National Congress
Exhibit 50 - Chhatisgarh - State Election vs National Election (Vote Share) Exhibit 51 - Chhatisgarh - State Election vs National Election (Seats Won)

60% 100%
51% Chhatisgarh 82% Chhatisgarh
50% 44% 42% 76%
80%
40% 34%
60%
30%
40%
20%
11% 17% 18%
8% 20%
10% 4% 2% 5% 6%
0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0%
BJP INC BSP JCC(J) Others BJP INC BSP JCC(J) Others

State Election - 2018 National Election - 2019 State Election - 2018 National Election - 2019
. .
Source: ECI, Jefferies Source: ECI, Jefferies
*BJP: Bhartiya Janta Party, INC: Indian National Congress *BJP: Bhartiya Janata Party, INC: Indian National Congress
Exhibit 52 - Haryana - State Election vs National Election (Vote Share) Exhibit 53 - Haryana - State Election vs National Election (Seats Won)

70% 120%
58% Haryana 100% Haryana
60% 100%
50%
80%
37%
40%
28% 29% 60% 44%
30%
34%
15% 16% 40%
20%
10% 4% 4% 5% 5% 20% 11% 10%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0%
BJP INC BSP JJP Others BJP INC BSP JJP Others

State Election - 2019 National Election - 2019 State Election - 2019 National Election - 2019
. .
Source: ECI, Jefferies Source: ECI, Jefferies
*BJP: Bhartiya Janata Party, INC: Indian National Congress *BJP: Bhartiya Janata Party, INC: Indian National Congress

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Exhibit 54 - Karnataka - State Election vs National Election (Vote Share) Exhibit 55 - Karnataka - State Election vs National Election (Seats Won)

60% 100% 89%

52% Karnataka Karnataka
50% 80%
39%
40% 36%
32% 60%
46%
30% 36%
40%
18%
20% 17%
10% 20%
6% 5% 4% 4%
10% 0% 0% 1% 4%
0% 1%
0%
0%
BJP INC BSP JDS Others
BJP INC BSP JDS Others
State Election - 2018 National Election - 2019 State Election - 2018 National Election - 2019
. .
Source: ECI, Jefferies Source: ECI, Jefferies
*BJP: Bhartiya Janata Party, INC: Indian National Congress *BJP: Bhartiya Janata Party, INC: Indian National Congress
Exhibit 56 - Madhya Pradesh - State Election vs National Election (Vote Share) Exhibit 57 - Madhya Pradesh - State Election vs National Election (Seats Won)

70% 120%
59% Madhya Pradesh Madhya Pradesh
60% 97%
100%
50% 42% 42% 80%
35%
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40%
60% 47% 50%
30%
40%
20% 12%
10% 5% 2% 4% 20%
3% 1% 0% 2% 0%
0% 0%
BJP INC BSP Others BJP INC BSP Others

State Election - 2018 National Election - 2019 State Election - 2018 National Election - 2019
. .
Source: ECI, Jefferies Source: ECI, Jefferies
*BJP: Bhartiya Janata Party, INC: Indian National Congress *BJP: Bhartiya Janata Party, INC: Indian National Congress
Exhibit 58 - Orissa - State Election vs National Election (Vote Share) Exhibit 59 - Orissa - State Election vs National Election (Seats Won)

50% 45% 43% 100%

Orissa Orissa
39% 77%
40% 80%
33%
57%
30% 60%
38%
20% 16% 40%
14%
16%
10% 6% 4% 20%
6% 5% 1% 0%
0% 0%
BJP INC BJD Others BJP INC BJD Others

State Election - 2018 National Election - 2019 State Election - 2018 National Election - 2019
. .
Source: ECI, Jefferies Source: ECI, Jefferies
*BJP: Bhartiya Janata Party, INC: Indian National Congress *BJP: Bhartiya Janata Party, INC: Indian National Congress
Exhibit 60 - Telangana - State Election vs National Election (Vote Share) Exhibit 61 - Telangana - State Election vs National Election (Seats Won)

50% 47% 80% 74%

Telangana Telangana
42%
70%
40%
60% 53%
29% 30%
30% 50%
20% 40%
20% 17%
30% 24%
16% 18%
7% 9% 20%
10% 9% 6%
10% 1%
0% 0%
BJP INC TRS Others BJP INC TRS Others

State Election - 2018 National Election - 2019 State Election - 2018 National Election - 2019
. .
Source: ECI, Jefferies Source: ECI, Jefferies
*BJP: Bhartiya Janata Party, INC: Indian National Congress *BJP: Bhartiya Janata Party, INC: Indian National Congress

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Exhibit 62 - Maharashtra - State Election vs National Election (Vote Share) Exhibit 63 - Maharashtra - State Election vs National Election (Seats Won)

30% 28% 60%

26% Maharashtra Maharashtra
24% 24% 48%
25% 50%
36% 38%
20% 17% 17% 16% 16% 16% 17% 40%
15% 30%
19% 19%
10% 20% 15%
8% 10%
5% 10% 2% 4%
0% 0%
BJP SHS NCP INC Others BJP SHS NCP INC Others

State Election - 2019 National Election - 2019 State Election - 2019 National Election - 2019
. .
Source: ECI, Jefferies Source: ECI, Jefferies
* BJP: Bhartiya Janata Party, INC,: Indian National Congress * BJP: Bhartiya Janata Party, INC: Indian National Congress
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Section 3 : The X factors

The previous two sections discuss several political strategy factors that can determine the election outlook. Over and above, there are several more
nuanced factors that can tilt the election one way or the other as due to the Indian system of ‘first past the post’, outcomes for many seats is determined
by a narrow margin. Hence, many other factors like voter turnout, caste equation, social media presence etc matter. We also highlight the perils of reading
too much into the state election results as many a time, those are fought on local issues as against the national elections.

Given the demographics, every national election sees about 60-75m first time voters. Their voting tendencies are untested at the national elections so far.
2024 elections will see 65m registered voters (7% of total) who were not eligible voter in the pre-Modi era. Also certain emotive issues viz. cross border
conflicts, Ram Temple issues etc can have an impact on the election outcome.

Growing importance of social media Large social media usage makes it an

As per a recent report from Redseer Strategy Consultants, Indians spend almost 7.3 hours per day on important campaign tool
their smartphones which is the highest in the world. There are 833m internet users as of Dec’22 which
is nearly 80% of adult population (15+) and 40% higher than last general election. More importantly the
internet quality has improved significantly, with nearly 800m of these users with 3G/4G data access
compared to 540m in 2019, which can be used for data intensive purposes such as video streaming.
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Social Media usage is the highest in India with almost 585mn registered users of Whatsapp & 315m
users of Facebook.

This sudden surge of social media use in India is likely to have significant impact on next year’s election.
As any news/messages can travel swiftly over social media, it can be used for both positively or
negatively to influence the voters. On positive side, Social media can be a medium to provide right
information, empower the voters. On the negative side, it can also be used to spread fake news with
respect to any political party/Leader which could have an impact on how people vote.

Political leaders also try to engage with people using platforms like X (formerly Twitter). Prime Minister,
Narendra Modi with 90m followers has the highest followers on X among political leaders in India much
above second highest political leader (Amit Shah) with 34m followers also from BJP. Rahul Gandhi
from the opposition Indian National Congress party has about 24m followers on X . As a result, social
media marketing has become a critical component of political campaign, and political parties are hiring
the best talent to build their social media marketing campaigns which is likely play an important role
in how people vote in next election.

Exhibit 64 - X Corp(Twitter) followers of political leaders Large following of the PM Modi on social
100 (m) media; 7 out of the 10 most followed political
90 90.0
leaders are from BJP - shows the inclination of
80
India's youth
70
60
50
40 33.5
27.1 25.6
30 24.0 23.7
18.7
20 13.1 12.7 11.7 9.0 8.4 8.4 7.2 7.0
10
0
Singh…
Kejriwal

Kumar
Akhilesh
Amit Shah

Gandhi

Sambit
Shivraj

Tharoor
Narendra

Rajnath

Piyush
Adityanath

Gadkari

Smriti Irani

banerjee
Nitish
Goyal
Arvind

Rahul

Mamta

Patra
Singh

Yadav

Sashi
Nitin
Modi

Yogi

.
Source: X Corp, Jefferies

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Exhibit 65 - Regional party trying to gauge talent with "Reel" contest Smaller parties getting on with the influencer
game
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.
Source: Jefferies

How will the new voter vote? Nearly a quarter of voters in 2024 would not
Out of 912mn eligible voters in 2019, 615m voters actually cast their ballot. The election commission have been adults during the last Congress
recorded a total of 951mn registered voters in early 2023, which is likely to increase further as more government
people reach the voting age (18) and generally registration intensifies closer to national elections. We
estimate that for the 2024 elections, 991m voters would be eligible which would include ~128mn new
voters who did not vote in 2019 elections. Similarly, 126 m new eligible voters voted in 2019 who did
not vote in 2014. So overall, 254m or 26% of the eligible voters in 2024 have not been exposed to the
previous (Congress) Government era which creates a substantial scope for anti-incumbency.

Exhibit 66 - New voter addition >10% voter base increment happening over last
140 (mn) (%) 30 two elections

120 25
100
20
80
15
60
10
40

20 5

0 0

New Voters %change of New Voters (RHS)

.
Source: ECI, Jefferies

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The 20-39 old group, comprising of young working Indian is 48% of the electorate, putting this together
more than 50% of the voting population is under the age of 40, suggesting issues around job security
and economic prosperity will resonate more which the current incumbent government is banking on.

Exhibit 67 - Electorate demographics in 2024 (Est) Demographics are fairly young for the voter

Age Bracket Est no. of registered share is total base with nearly three fifths below the age of
42
voters in 2024 (mn) registered voters (%)
18-22 128 13%
23-27 119 12%
28-42 319 32%
43-62 288 29%
63+ 137 14%
Total 991 100%
.
Source: Jefferies estimates

National elections vs state election voting National parties do have an edge vs. state ones
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Local affairs tend to dominate India’s state elections, while general elections are contested over national during the national polls
issues. Voters perceive that local parties are less likely to have a major say at a national level. As a result
some fence sitters vote for national party in general election but for a local party for state elections. This
hypothesis is corroborated by our voting pattern analysis of different types of elections in key states
over the last 10 years. In states where regional factors are generally stronger, the voting percentage of
national parties like BJP and Congress is higher in national elections, compared to state elections.

The data for seven large states, which account for 50% of all Lok Sabha seats, indicates that BJP
vote share increased by over 5.7% on average in these states over last 3 general elections than in
corresponding state elections. Similarly, congress’ rose by 1.4%. On the other hand, regional parties like
DMK, AIADMK, JD(S), TMC, SP received lower vote share in national elections.

Exhibit 68 - Average vote share change in National vs State Elections BJP and Congress both gained vote share vs.
National Parties : BJP, Congress. Dominant Regional Parties: AIADMK, JDS, SP, TMC, DMK
regional parties during the national polls during
8.0% past two elections
5.7%

4.0% 1.4%
0.0%

-4.0%
-3.4%
-8.0% -6.6% -6.2%
-7.7%
-8.9%
-12.0%
AIADMK

TMC
SP

BJP
JD(S)

DMK

Congress

.
Source: ECI, Jefferies
Secondly, even within the national parties, voters vote differently in state vs national elections. Very National election outcome in the three states
recent example is the Dec 18 state elections in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh. In these states, where BJP lost in Dec'18 vs. May'19 was quite
Congress won the state elections but during the national elections 5-6 months later, the same voters different
voted in favour of the BJP

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Exhibit 69 - Seat Share change in National Election 2019 vs State Election 2018 Exhibit 70 - Vote Share change in National Election 2019 vs State Election
2018
80% BJP Congress
65%
59% 25%
60% 49% BJP Congress
19%
20% 17%
40% 16%

20% 15%

0% 10%

-20% 5%

-40% 0%

-60% -50% -46%

-57% -5% -3%
-80% -6%
-10% -7%
Chhattisgarh Rajasthan Madhya Pradesh
. Chhattisgarh Rajasthan Madhya Pradesh
Source: ECI, Jefferies .
Source: ECI, Jefferies

Concentration of popularity matters Conversion of votes to seats is dependent on

In India’s parliamentary system the candidate with the largest number of votes wins the elections in vote concentration as first past the post vote
a constituency. In constituencies where there are several candidates, the winner can have well below at constituency level is the electoral system
50% of the vote. Similarly, a spread-out share in several constituencies is of no significance without
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winning a majority vote. This also implies that concentrated vote share in a few constituencies is more
important to win seats than small vote shares in many constituencies.

BJP had 37% share of the vote across India in 2019 and won 55% of the seats, while congress, with
20% of the vote, won only 10% i.e. for every 1% vote share, BJP took 1.5% of the seats and congress
0.5% - a result of its stellar performance in a few states, despite Congress’ wider geographic spread.

Similarly, YSR and DMK with vote share of 2.5% and 2.3% won 4.1% and 4.4% of the seats respectively
due to the concentrated vote shares in their respected states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. While
BSP with 4th largest vote share of 3.6% managed only 1.8% of the seats due to spread-out votes.

In the 2004 and 2009 general election, BJP and Congress had a much closer seat share to vote share
ratio, but the gap was significant in 2014 and 2019 as BJP focused concentrating its votes in states
where they have strong hold which worked in their favor.

Exhibit 71 - Seat-share to vote-share ratio for parties in 2019 (with >1% vote) Successfull state parties like YSRCP and
Seat-share to vote-share ratio for parties in 2019 (with >1% vote) Trinamool enjoy high vote concentration levels
Party Seat Won Total Seats in National Vote Seat Share to
Parliament (%) Share(%) Vote Share

Bharatiya Janta Party 303 55.8 37.3 1.5

Indian National Congress 52 9.6 19.5 0.5
All India Trinamool Congress 22 4.1 4.1 1.0
Bahujan Samaj party 10 1.8 3.6 0.5
Independent 4 0.7 2.7 0.3
Samajwadi party 5 0.9 2.6 0.4
YSR Congress Party 22 4.1 2.5 1.6
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam 24 4.4 2.3 1.9
Shiv Sena 18 3.3 2.1 1.6
Telugu Desam Party 3 0.6 2.0 0.3
Communist Party of India (Marxist) 3 0.6 1.8 0.3
Biju Janata Dal 12 2.2 1.7 1.3
Janata Dal (United) 16 2.9 1.5 2.0
Nationalist Congress party 5 0.9 1.4 0.7
All India United Democratic Front 1 0.2 1.4 0.1

. Telangana Rashtra Samithi 9 1.7 1.3 1.3

Source: ECI, Jefferies

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Exhibit 72 - Seat-share to Vote share for BJP and Congress over last 4 elections BJP seat to vote ration was 3x that of Congress
1.8 (seats to votes) 1.7 in last two polls

1.6 1.5
BJP Congress
1.4 1.3

1.2 1.1 1.1

1.0
1.0

0.8

0.6 0.5
0.4
0.4

0.2

0.0
. 2004 2009 2014 2019
Source: Jefferies

Voter turnout Enticing voter turnout of the core base remains

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Higher voter turnout leads to more decisive mandates as it is seen as an indication of a "wave" for critical to party fortunes
or against a party. In 2004, BJP was expected to win or retain power, and was so confident it called
an early election, showcasing its work in “India Shining”. It lost, one of the reason being that its core
supporter didn’t turn up to vote. There was a 2% decline in voter turnout in that election compared to
the previous one in 1999.

Turnout in 2014 was 66.4%, +8% from previous election in 2009 which showed massive anti-
incumbency wave against the UPA-2 government, which was due to various corruption scandals
unfolding, high inflation and India being tagged as “Fragile 5” as Indian economy saw a major downturn.

Other instances of large increase in voter turnout includes 1984-85, when the prime minister Indira
Gandhi was assassinated and a strong pro-congress sympathy wave resulted in it winning more than
400 seats in the general elections highest ever by any single party.

In 2019, the turnout was 67.4% the highest ever also favored a BJP government as the party returned
with even higher number of seats than the 2014 regime change victory.

Exhibit 73 - Voter Turnout trend in past election Since 1998 (BJP victory), turnouts >60% have
80 (%) been generally positive for the party
66 67
70 64 62 62
61 60 60
57 56 58 58 58
60 55 55
46 48
50
40
30
20
10
0

Voter turnout
.
Source: ECI, Jefferies
The turnout of women voters in India was historically lower than overall voter turnout. The differential Tough to say if women vote differently than
between total and female voter was 9ppts in early years of independence. This number has been men...
reducing and in 2019 it was down to 0. While it is not clear if women favor any particular political party,
the rising women voter turnout has incentivized the government to launch women oriented policies.

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Exhibit 74 - Men vs Women voter turnout ...though gradually the women voter turnout

75 (%) has started matching that for men

68 67
70 67 66 66 66
64 6667 67
63 62 62 62 62 60
65 61
59
58 57 58
60 56 55 56
54
56
53
55 49
51 51
50 47
45 39
40
35
30

Women Voter turnout Men Voter turnout

.
Source: ECI, Jefferies
Exhibit 75 - Women oriented policies announced by Modi government Modi govt. has launched several schemes
Measure Benefit for Women targeting the women welfare
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100% coverage by 2019 on Household sanitation

Clean India
coverage important for women's health and safety

Improved cooking fuel - move to gas from polluting &

Ujjwala
less efficient wood or kerosene
Either the main or co-beneficiary under the scheme has
Housing for All
to be women
Triple Talaq Bill Ending Muslim practice of divorce by decree
Clean drinking water connections provided to 97m
Jal Jeevan Mission household in 4 years covering 67% of the household
from 17% before 2019
.
Source: PIB, Jefferies

Emotional issues
Indian voters have a very high emotional quotient which can have a significant impact on how they
vote. Empirical evidence has shown this time and again. Indira Gandhi, prime minister and daughter
of India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, was assassinated in 1984. The country was moved
emotionally and voted in her son, the inexperienced Rajiv, with super majority of 411 seats out of 542,
the highest ever by a single party. The 1970s saw Congress lose some national appeal after the more
authoritarian Indira has declared a state of emergency, protecting herself from a guilty verdict delivered
against her in a relation misusing state machinery in the 1971 election. The lost support seemed to be
recovered quickly as all Congress supporter came together in support of her son.

BJP’ Atal Bihari Vajpayee ran a fractured mandate for 13 months in 1998-99, before a re-election in
Mid-1999. His handling of the Kargil War (in May and June, when Pakistani troops, posing as militants,
occupied several border hilltops) and the swift military operation forced the enemy to withdraw. Atop a
wave a patriotic fervor that swept the nation, the BJP-led NDA-1 won a comfortable and stable majority.

More recently, before the 2019 general election, the Narendra Modi led government was facing some
anti-incumbency pressure as some bold economic reforms such as Demonetization, GST, Bankruptcy
code, inflation targeting led to near term economic cost hampering sentiments of the middle class
population, a strong vote bank of BJP.

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However, Narendra Modi led government’s swift response to Pulwama attack in Feb 2019, where 'Emotional' issues which have significantly
militants rammed explosive led vehicle into Indian Military convoy, by conducting airstrike in Balakot influenced the voters in the past include death
region of Pakistan destroying Militant training camps led to another patriotic wave helping BJP with a of leaders and wars
thumping majority of 303 seats in general election held in May 2019.

For 2024 election, BJP could benefit to an extent on emotional sentiment attached to Ram temple
inauguration in Ayodhaya city which is in the state of Uttar Pradesh (80 seats out of 543 seats in
the state). The land on which the Ram temple is being constructed has been long disputed between
the 2 major communities in India. The controversial case was taken up by supreme court in 2011
and the judgement was passed in 2019 in favor of constructing the Ram temple on the disputed site.
The Construction activity of this Ram temple started in Aug 2020 and the phase 1 is expected to be
inaugurated in Jan’24, few months before the general election which should swing some sentimental
votes in the favor of incumbent BJP.

Exhibit 76 - Ram Mandir demonstration in Repulic Day parade in Delhi Construction of a Ram Temple at Ayodhya has
been a key issue for the BJP and same can see
a fruition prior to the 2024 elections
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.
Source: PIB, Jefferies

Opposition parties promise to restore OPS

Poll Promise - Old Pension scheme (OPS) vs National Pension scheme could swing government employees' vote away
(NPS) from BJP
Debate over Old Pension scheme (OPS) and National Pension scheme (NPS) is getting louder as we are
getting closer to the national election. OPS which was an unfunded pension scheme financed on a pay-
as-you-go (PAYG) basis in which current revenues of the government funded the pension benefit for its
retired employees was replaced by National Pension Scheme (NPS) for central and state government
employees who joined after 1st Jan 2004 which was a defined contribution plan where central and state
government employees will contribute 10% of their salary in an NPS account with equal contribution
from the government.

A section of government employees says that by bringing in the NPS, the government is putting the
social security of workers at stake. NPS is not as attractive as OPS for them. Another issue with the new
scheme is the uncertain amount of the pension. Under NPS, the pay-out is market-linked and return-
based, unlike OPS, where it is predetermined. Under OPS, the employees need not contribute anything
to their pensions, so they have more cash as a monthly salary.

Though fiscally not prudent, opposition parties are promising to get OPS back at national level. Some
state governments like Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan restored OPS for state
government employees and recent loss of BJP in the state of Himachal Pradesh was attributed to OPS.

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Currently, there are about 2.8m Central Government and 5.6m State government employees under
NPS scheme, which including their family would imply 29.4m voters (3% of total voters) which could
potentially be influenced by opposition parties promise to bring back OPS.
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Section 4: Market Impact

Out of the last 4 national elections, the previous two elections results were more on the expected lines but yet the Indian market outperformed MSCI AxJ
during the election results period (10 days including results impact) by 5-9ppts. In the previous 6 months leading up to the election week India OPFed
before 2014 elections but was in line for 2019 elections. We note that in Dec-18 (i.e. 4-5 months before the 2019 national elections), the BJP had lost 3
key state elections in the state of MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, yet won the final national election in style.

We believe that political continuity as the most likely outcome, though, it might come with a lower margin of victory. We therefore advocate OWT on
domestic cyclicals / capex recovery plays including banks, industrial and property. Our top picks are Axis Banks, ICICI bank, SBI, L&T, Ultratech, Godrej
Properties, and Macrotech, and select industrial mid-caps including Thermax, Siemens, KEI & Kajaria. We also like the structural story in the hospital
sectors and our top picks include Max and Medanta. We believe that the housing cycle will play out irrespective of the election outcome due to strong
industry momentum but capex cycle might slow down in the event that ruling party changes in the Government. We note that even in 2004 type of scenario
of an election upset, the economy and stock market were both back on track recouping the initial post-election losses in 6 months time.

Opinion polls and election results can

How does the market behave around elections? significantly influence the markets
Our analysis of the past four general elections in 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2019 reveals to us the equity
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markets slowly begin to price in the expected election results over a period of 6 months prior to the
actual election date. Leading up to the elections, investors usually receive signals like the opinion polls
and state election results. Many investors and analysts also tend to speak to politicians, journalists
and gather qualitative information including pre-poll alliances, or politicians switching parties, etc.
Several valuable inputs after each round of voting (national elections usually take place across different
geographies at different point in time across 6-7 phases spread over a period of a month). After the
surprise election results of 2004 and 2009, investors have started paying more attention to these
political developments.

Exhibit 77 - Market Performance during last 4 elections

Six Months before Elections Election Result (10days) Six months after elections

Early election call led to a 5ppt 3ppt underperformance as NDA Reform friendly pairing of
2004: UPA outperformance as the market was loses power; UPDA needs Manmohan Singh/P chidambram
defeats NDA expecting NDA to retain power. communist support. drives 6ppt outperformance

The UPA expected to retain power 24ppt outperformance as UPA India underperformed MSCI AxJ
2009: UPA as per the opnion poll; India comes to power with a larger slightly by 3ppts, with no change
underperformed MSCI AxJ by 13ppt mandate and stable govt. in policies via-a-vis UPA 1.
retains power

Strong NDA performance in Dec-13 5ppt outperformance as BJP wins a Initial reform actions like fiscal
2014: NDA polls/subsequent opinion polls majority on its own; the most stable consolidation/inflation-targeting
raises hopes of a strong central govt in 30 years drive a 8ppt outperformance
defeats UPA coalition and leads to a 14 ppt
outperformance.

The NDA expected to retain power 9ppt outperformance as BJP wins India underperformed MSCI AxJ by
as anti-incumbency wave subsided with a much bigger mandate. 9ppt as no major change in policy
2019: NDA
after Pulwama. India perfomed vis-a-vis NDA 1
retains power inline with MSCI AxJ

.
Source: Jefferies,*Performance based on MSCI India ($) and MSCI AxJ($) index

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Significant market decline in 2004 post an

We believe equity markets like a stable government headed by a leader with a strong development/ unanticipated BJP loss and a sharp gain
reform agenda. Currently, under the decisive leadership of Mr Modi, India’s capex cycle is witnessing post the Congress' larger than expected 2009
an upcycle and strong growth trend which has helped investor sentiments. As can be seen from the victory happened
table above, when the elections results don't conform with market expectations, significant volatility is
seen during the result week. In the 2004 and 2009 elections, the respective NDA and UPA government
expected to come back to power and, as such, India's performance was in line with that of the region
before the election. In 2014, markets were expecting a change of the ruling coalition (from Congress
led UPA to the BJP led NDA) to a more decisive, stable and development-oriented government. With
incremental opinion polls/state election results, this belief was strengthened and the Indian market
outperformed. In 2019, the market was expecting political continuity, however, with lesser number of
seats for the BJP as it lost some key state elections. But the party won more seats than expected.

Voting for national elections are held over several phases (for the 2019 election first round of voting
was held on 11 April and the final round of voting took place on the 19 May spread over seven rounds of
voting). Exit polls are published after all the rounds of polling is over. The formal counting of votes and
election usually announced a few days later. For example the voting for 2019 elections was over on the
19 May and the exit polls (more reliable than opinion polls) were published on the same day evening
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and the final election results were announced on the 23 May. While the exit polls are published at the
end of all the rounds, whispers or results can possibly spread much earlier.

Exhibit 78 - Nifty price movement during 2019 Election Even in 2019, despite market anticipating a
12200 Modi victory, the gains were sharp when it
11th Apr: Polling starts 23rd May: result released
became clear a single party majority was being
12000 repeated
19th May: Polling
Ends; exit poll
released
11800

11600

11400

11200

11000
4/1/2019 4/16/2019 5/1/2019 5/16/2019 5/31/2019 6/15/2019 6/30/2019
.
Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies
After the election results, the policies of the elected government decide what happens, as it should. Post
elections, the next event for the market is the budget presented by the new government, usually, in July.

IT & RIL, key defensives / globals, did better

Sectoral performance ahead of 2019 elections ahead of the 2019 elections
In the run up to 2019 election, as expectation of an anti-incumbency wave building up coupled with BJP
losing some key state elections, we saw Large caps outperforming Mid and Small cap segment with
Financials, IT & RIL outperforming other sectors as investors started pricing in for a political risk. As BJP
won with a bigger mandate, reform driven Industrials and Materials outperformed during the election
result week. A confirmation of a more stable government also likely led to some buying into high beta
SMID cap names as well. However, due to absence of any new catalyst we saw both Industrials and
Materials giving up their gains.

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Exhibit 79 - Sectoral performance 6m before 2019 elections Mid-caps underperformed large caps in run-up
15.0 to 2019 elections, partly as a risk-off trade
12.0
10.3
10.0
6.2
5.0 3.4
0.1 0.0
0.0
-1.2 -1.7
-5.0 -2.2
-3.4 -4.0 -4.6
-10.0 -8.3

6m before election
.
Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies
Exhibit 80 - Sectoral performance during 2019 election results Industrials and financials, along with small
This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited.

12.0 10.8 caps, OPFed as it became clear Modi was being

9.6 relected with a large majority
10.0
8.0 6.3 5.9 5.7 5.7
6.0 4.8 4.5 4.0
4.0 2.5
1.8
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-1.5 -1.5
-4.0

Election result (10days)

.
Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies
Exhibit 81 - Sectoral performance 6m after 2019 elections Post election performance reverts to normal
15.0 market trends and / or government policy
9.4 direction
10.0 7.8 6.9
5.0
1.4 0.6
0.0
-1.0
-5.0
-4.5
-5.9 -6.5 -6.8
-10.0 -8.2 -9.0 -9.7
-15.0

6m After Election
.
Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies

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Nifty trades closer to +1sd levels

Market not building in potential political risks
We believe markets are currently pricing in for a political continuity and not building in any political risk
thus far. In absolute valuation terms, Nifty trades +1sd above 10-year average on a PE basis. The bond
yield gap at 1.9% is also close to high, however on a relative basis Nifty PE premium to MSCI EM is just
close to average which could act as a support for any possible political upset.

Exhibit 82 - Nifty 1-year forward consensus PE Some derating happened for the Nifty in 2H18
Nifty 1yr fwd consensus PE Average PE +1 sd -1 sd as slowing economic growth raised concerns
(X) on rising anti-incumbency
23
21
19
17
15
13
11
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9
7
Aug-13

Aug-14

Aug-15

Aug-16

Aug-17

Aug-18

Aug-19

Aug-20

Aug-21

Aug-22

Aug-23

.
Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies
Exhibit 83 - Bond-Equity yield gap Yield gap is much above average
3.0 (ppt)

2.0

1.0

0.0

-1.0

-2.0

-3.0
Aug-13

Aug-14

Aug-15

Aug-16

Aug-17

Aug-18

Aug-19

Aug-20

Aug-21

Aug-22

Aug-23

Bond yield - Equity earnings yield Average yield gap (ppt)

.
Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies

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Exhibit 84 - Nifty 1yr forward PE Premium/Discount over MSCI EM Indian market valuations close to long term
average vs EMs
100 (%) Current PE
90 premium 51%
80
70
60
50
40
30
20 Average PE premium: 48%
10
0
Aug-13

Aug-14

Aug-15

Aug-16

Aug-17

Aug-18

Aug-19

Aug-20

Aug-21

Aug-22

Aug-23
Nifty PE Premium/(Discount) over EMs Average
.
Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies
Exhibit 85 - Nifty 1yr forward PE Premium/Discount over MSCI AxJ India trading tad above average premium vs.
This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited.

90 (%) the AxJ index

80 Current PE premium 43%
70
60
50
40
30
20
Average PE premium: 37%
10
0
Aug-13

Aug-14

Aug-15

Aug-16

Aug-17

Aug-18

Aug-19

Aug-20

Aug-21

Aug-22

Aug-23

Nifty PE Premium/(Discount) over Asia ex-Japan Average

.
Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies

We believe BJP set to emerge as single largest

The 2024 scenario party but regaining majority not as clear yet
The set-up running up to 2024 (possibly in April-May, though dates not announced yet) elections
appears to be very similar to that in 2019. Mr Modi led Government formation appears to be the base
case. It’s no doubt that the BJP will emerge as the single largest party but whether the party will cross
the 50% mark of 272 seats can not be said with the same certainty.

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Exhibit 86 - Market Impact on various 2024 election scenarios

2024: Scenario Market Outcome Stocks

- This is the base case for the markets. 70% probability. Property & Capex Cylce plays:
Modi-led BJP - Continued strength in capex cycle driving strong economic including Cement, Infra & Cap
Majority Govt growth and investor sentiments. goods, Large Banks, SMID caps

-20% probability; BJP falls short of the majority by 20-30 seats but Property, Select capex plays
Modi-Led forms the government with the help of its partners inclduing L&T, cement,
- The populist pressure may rise but Modi's priorities unlikely to Discretionary consumption,
Coalition change

- 10% probability. 'INDIA' opposition alliance forms a weak and Staples, IT, Pharma. Domestic
populist government. cyclicals can be bought after
Weak Coalition - A steep 10%+ market correction possible. Investor sentiments to the initial fall
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be impacted.

.
Source: Jefferies

2004 election setup was similar to 2024 partly

A possible repeat of 2004 is the key risk. as the incumbent BJP govt was expected to
BJP led coalition – NDA – was expected to win the 2004 national elections. The then BJP leader win and a capex cycle was getting started after
and the prime minister Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee was quite a popular political leader and had brought a long dormant period; however the Congress
in several reforms viz. privatization, private sector participation in infrastructure, thrust on improving won
roads infrastructure, stock market friendly measures like reducing long-term capital gains tax on
equities to zero etc. In many ways, his policies led to the solid economic growth beyond 2004. The
market did not anticipate NDA’s defeat in the 2004 elections.

The opinion polls indicated that the incumbent BJP would claim victory with a repeat mandate. But
Congress party joined hands with left-wing partners to put together a comfortable majority of more
than 335 seats out of a total of 543 Loksabha seats. This completely caught the markets off-guard.

The markets underperformed by 3ppts in the election result week reflecting popular sentiment that
the new government, particularly with communist party support, would find it difficult to continue with
broad market reforms and infrastructure development initiated by the BJP.

Six months later, however, India's underperformance had been reversed. The newly formed government
was headed by Dr Manmohan Singh, viewed as the driver of India's 1991 reforms. Mr P Chidambaram
was the Finance Minister, who had earlier given a 'dream budget' (lower taxation, major capital markets
reform etc) in 1997. While the disinvestment program of NDA was shelved, the UPA government
continued the infrastructure development agenda, particularly with a high focus on the Public Private
Participation (PPP) model.

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Exhibit 87 - MSCI India vs MSCI AxJ during 2004 election year After an initial large dip in 2004, the Indian
Both indices rebased to 100 on 1st Jan 2004
markets caught up as the UPA govt continued
120.0 with the Infrastructure push and the capex /
115.0 housing cycle boomed
110.0
105.0
100.0
95.0
90.0
85.0
80.0
75.0
70.0

MSCI AxJ MSCI India

.
Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies
This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited.

*MSCI India and MSCI AxJ in US$

Exhibit 88 - MSCI India vs MSCI AxJ 1 year post 2004 elections
Both indices rebased to 100 on 1st May 2004

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

MSCI AxJ MSCI India

.
Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies
* MSCI India and MSCI AxJ in US$
Post 2019 outperformance barely lasted week
NDA's 2019 victory was bigger than predicted for India
Most opinion polls in 2019 predicted that a BJP-led NDA coalition would form government. However,
the margin of win was expected to be lower. Anticipating no change in regime or political environment,
Indian equities slightly underperformed the regional peers in the run up to the elections.

This time the markets were in for a positive surprise as BJP on its own won 303 seats the best result
by any party since 1984. The indices gave a "big thumbs up", registering a record 8% gain over next 3
days. However, this outperformance was only lasted for that week. The government policies in NDA-2
were more-or-less the same as before, ie, there was no perceived change in longer-run reform pace.
Over the next 6-12 months, India was inline vs MSCI AxJ.

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Exhibit 89 - MSCI India vs MSCI AxJ during 2019 election year Indian markets UPFed in 2019 despite BJP
Both indices rebased to100 on 1st Jan 2019
victory
120

115

110

105

100

95

90

MSCI AxJ MSCI India

.
Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies,
This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited.

* MSCI India and MSCI AxJ in US$

Exhibit 90 - MSCI India vs MSCI AxJ 1 year after 2019 elections Indian markets UPFed AxJ 1-yr post 2019
Both indices rebased to100 on 1st May 2019
victory for the BJP

115

105

95

85

75

65

55

MSCI AxJ MSCI India

.
Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies,
*MSCI India and MSCI AxJ in US$
Strong housing fundamentals and its mass
Housing theme is politics proof economic linkages should make the sector
Housing sector has generally been political party agnostic as a common theme across all government politics proof
policies has been around housing. Infact the largest bull market in Indian property was between
2004-2012 under the Congress tenure. Modi government has been instrumental in bringing a housing
reform in 2016 (RERA) under which home builders were restricted to move around capital across
capital safeguarding home buyers interest. To kickstart the affordable housing cycle, Modi’s ambitious
Housing for All scheme was launched in 2016. We have seen an uptick in housing cycle since FY21
onwards as inventories subsides, and we expect this to continue irrespective of political set-up beyond
2024. Hence, we continue to overweight property developers running up to the elections.

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The upturn in capex cycle has come after a

Capex theme should work in the long-run long time and we see it lasting for the next 5-7
Capex Cycle are long-term cycles and driven by structural reforms which are generally sticky across years, though govt. spends may change post
governments. The structural reform introduced by Atal Bihari Vajpayee – led NDA government between elections
1999-2004 under their “India Shining Campaign” continued to reap benefits further under Congress led
UPA-1 government post 2004 as well. This can be seen by GFCF as a % of GDP which rose sequentially
since FY00 to FY08 where it peaked and reversed only after FY08 when UPA-2 government came into
power. Similarly, the benefits from structural reforms introduced by NDA-1 government started reaping
benefits only from second half NDA-2 government. We believe that the capex cycle will also continue to
witness uptick over the next 5-7 years notwithstanding the political set-up, though there can be some
initial ups and downs for some infra projects if the political dispensation were to change. Hence, we
continue to like domestic cyclicals viz. industrials and banks.

Exhibit 91 - GFCF as a % of GDP GFCF as % of GDP can go much higher from

40.0 (%) current as capex & housing cycle rise
GFCF as a % of GDP
35.8
34.7 34.3
35.0 33.6 34.0 33.4
32.8 33.2
31.3
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30.7
29.9 30.1
29.5 28.9 29.2
30.0 28.3 28.3 28.7 28.2 28.2 28.5
27.5 27.3
26.0
25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

.
Source: CMIE, Jefferies

Karnataka State budget move towards populism Congress govt. cut the proposed capex and
The 2023 Karnataka state elections were fought by the Congress on the basis of several poll promises increased the non-capex expenditure, taxes
with significant fiscal implications. Adhering to poll promises made by the party, the Jul'23 budget for and deficit to implement its freebie program
the state post the elections showed a clear increase in allocation to revenue expenditure, +11.3% from worth ~2.0% of state GDP
pre-election budget. About Rs520bn (2.0% of state GDP) was allocated to the 5 guarantees that the
Congress party promised before election which are (i) free bus travel for women under Shakti scheme,
(ii) free electricity up to 200 units for domestic consumers under Gruha Jyoti scheme, (iii) Rs 2,000
monthly financial assistance to woman head of family under Gruha Lakshmi scheme, (iv) 5kg additional
foodgrains to eligible persons under Annabhagya scheme, and (v) monthly unemployment allowance
of Rs 3,000 for degree holders and Rs 1,500 for diploma holders under Yuvanidhi scheme. For delivery
personnel in e-commerce companies, life and health insurance of Rs.200k has been announced the
premium of which will be paid by the state government.

The capital expenditure for FY24 was reduced by 7% from pre-election budget announced by the BJP.
The total expenditure has increased by 7% from pre-election announcement to Rs.3.05Trn. On the
revenue side alcohol duties were raised by 10ppt-20ppt; nonetheless, absolute deficit was projected to
be 10% higher than proposed under the BJP budget.

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Exhibit 92 - Karnataka State Budget highlights Congress FY24 budget was much more
FY24e populist than BJP's FY24 budget. Rather
FY24BE (Pre FY24BE (Post FY24e (Cong) vs
Karnataka State Budget FY23 (Post) vs
Election) Election) FY24e (BJP) interestingly, Congress' GDP projection was
FY23
RS. bn RS. bn RS. bn (% change) (% change)
also higher by 10%!
Revenue 2,124 2,259 2,384 12.3 5.5
Total Expenditure 2,737 2,867 3,053 11.6 6.5
Capital Expenditure 528 583 544 3.0 (6.8)
Revenue Expenditure 2,184 2,255 2,509 14.9 11.3
Fiscal Deficit 611 606 666 9.0 10.0
GSDP 21,812 23,339 25,673 17.7 10.0
Fiscal deficit as % of GSDP 2.8% 2.6% 2.6%
.
Source: Finance department of Karnataka, Jefferies

Rural and urban poor segment has relatively

Chances of some pro poor announcement ahead of 2024 budget lagged post COVID and could see some
In the post pandemic period, economic recovery in India has been uneven popularly termed as ‘K’ targeted measures in the run-up to the election
shaped recovery. The top end of the economic strata was not impacted much due to COVID which
is visible in strong trends in urban housing, airline passenger growth, jewelery demand, luxury hotel
demand etc. But the bottom of the pyramid indicators like the consumer staple demand growth,
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two-wheeler growth has been weak. The latter (or rural demand) has now shown some signs of
improvement, but the recovery still remains patchy.

We believe that the Government might look to undertake some measures to prop up the bottom of the
pyramid. In each of the previous national elections – the respective Government has taken some pro-
poor / social measures as listed in the table below. We believe that the ongoing rural recovery may get
an upthrust if the Government were to take some explicit measures which is likely. Consumer staples,
Telecom and two-wheeler would be a good way to play this tactical near-term possibility.

Exhibit 93 - Certain populist options for the BJP govt. ahead of 2024 elections

Raise PM Kisan transfers

from Rs6k/annum

Women targeted schemes - Expand Ayushman

Income transfers, Bharat health insurance
subsidised cooking fuels etc scheme

Possible policy steps

ahead of 2024 elections

Bring back Interest subsidy

Double digit increases to
scheme for affordable
winter crop MSPs
housing

Abridge the gap between

New Pension and Old
pension scheme

.
Source: Jefferies

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Exhibit 94 - Major welfare policies ahead of national elections 2019 pre-election budget had seen the farmer
Election Party Policy basic income scheme being rolled out by the
2009 Cong National farm-loan waiver scheme BJP
Rural employment guarantee expansion
2014 Cong National food security Act
Land acquisition law changes
2019 BJP Farmer basic income scheme
Higher MSP increase

. 2024E BJP Not Yet Known/Announced

Source: Jefferies
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UPS and downs - The past 25 years under NDA and UPA rule*

Exhibit 95 - Real GDP growth rate

12.0 (%)
10.0 8.9 8.5 9.1
7.9 7.9 7.9 8.1 7.7 8.3
7.9 7.4 8.0 6.8 6.5 7.2
8.0 6.2 6.4 6.0
6.0 4.8 5.2 5.5
3.8 3.8 3.9
4.0 3.1
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0 -5.8
FY99
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24E
NDA UPA1 UPA2 NDA1 NDA2
.
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Source: Jefferies, * NDA is National Democratic Alliance, a BJP led Coalition. UPA is United Progressive Alliance, a Congress led coalition.
Exhibit 96 - Consumer Price Index (CPI)*

16.0(%)
14.0 13.1
12.4
12.0 10.5 10.1
10.0 9.1 9.4
8.4
8.0 6.7 6.2 6.7
5.8 6.2
5.5 5.4
6.0 4.9 4.5 4.8
4.3 4.0 3.9 3.8 4.4
4.0 3.4 3.8 3.6 3.4

2.0
0.0
FY99
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24E

NDA UPA1 UPA2 NDA1 NDA2

.
Source: Jefferies, *CPI-IW used as CPI proxy for years before FY12
Exhibit 97 - Central governments's fiscal deficit as a % of GDP

10.0 (%) 9.2

9.0
8.0
6.8 6.7 6.4
7.0 6.5 6.2 6.4 6.6
5.7 6.0 5.9 5.9
6.0
4.7 4.6 4.9 4.7
5.0 4.2 4.3 4.5
4.1 3.9
4.0 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4
2.8
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
FY99
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24E

NDA UPA1 UPA2 NDA1 NDA2

.
Source: Jefferies

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Exhibit 98 - Subsidies as a % of GDP

4.5 (%)
4.0 3.8

3.5
3.0 2.6
2.4 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.3
2.5 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
1.9
2.0 1.8
1.6 1.5
1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.3
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
FY99
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24E
NDA UPA1 UPA2 NDA1 NDA2
.
Source: Jefferies
Exhibit 99 - Current Account deficit as a % of GDP

6.0 (%)
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4.8
5.0 4.3
4.0
2.9 2.9
3.0 2.4
1.7 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.8
2.0 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.2
1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9
1.0 0.6 0.4 0.6

0.0
-1.0
-0.8 -0.9
-2.0 -1.3
-3.0 -2.4
FY99
FY00
FY01

FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18

FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY02

FY19

FY24E

NDA UPA1 UPA2 NDA1 NDA2

.
Source: Jefferies
Exhibit 100 - Net FDI as a % of GDP

2.0 (%) 1.9

1.8 1.7
1.6
1.5 1.6 1.5
1.6
1.4 1.4
1.4 1.2 1.2
1.2 1.1 1.1
1.2 1.1
1.0
1.0 0.9
0.8 0.8
0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
0.6 0.6
0.6 0.5
0.4 0.4
0.4
0.2
0.0
FY99
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24E

NDA UPA1 UPA2 NDA1 NDA2

.
Source: Jefferies

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Company Valuation/Risks
For Important Disclosure information on companies recommended in this report, please visit our website at https://javatar.bluematrix.com/
sellside/Disclosures.action or call 212.284.2300.

Analyst Certification:
I, Mahesh Nandurkar, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies)
and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations
or views expressed in this research report.
I, Abhinav Sinha, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and
subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or
views expressed in this research report.
I, Nishant Poddar, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies)
and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations
or views expressed in this research report.
Registration of non-US analysts: Mahesh Nandurkar is employed by Jefferies India Private Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/
qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may
not be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by
This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited.

a research analyst.
Registration of non-US analysts: Abhinav Sinha is employed by Jefferies India Private Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/
qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may
not be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by
a research analyst.
Registration of non-US analysts: Nishant Poddar, CFA is employed by Jefferies India Private Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not
registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and
therefore may not be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading
securities held by a research analyst.
As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receives
compensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate,
but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are
published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgement.

Investment Recommendation Record

(Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR)
Recommendation Published August 30, 2023 , 07:28 ET.
Recommendation Distributed August 30, 2023 , 07:28 ET.

Company Specific Disclosures

James Heaney has a long position in Facebook.
Jefferies Group LLC makes a market in the securities or ADRs of ICICI Bank.

Jefferies Group LLC, its affiliates or subsidiaries is acting as a manager or co-manager in the underwriting or placement of securities for ICICI Bank or
one of its affiliates.
Within the past 12 months, Jefferies Group LLC, its affiliates or subsidiaries has received compensation from investment banking services from Macrotech
Developers.
Within the past twelve months, Macrotech Developers has been a client of Jefferies LLC and investment banking services are being or have been provided.
Jefferies Group LLC, its affiliates or subsidiaries expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from Max Healthcare
Institute Ltd within the next three months.
Jefferies Group LLC, its affiliates or subsidiaries is acting as a manager or co-manager in the underwriting or placement of securities for Max Healthcare
Institute Ltd or one of its affiliates.
Jefferies International Ltd, its affiliates or subsidiaries has, or had, within the past 12 months an agreement to provide investment services to Max
Healthcare Institute Ltd.
Within the past 12 months, Jefferies Group LLC, its affiliates or subsidiaries has received compensation from investment banking services from Global
Health Limited.
Within the past twelve months, Global Health Limited has been a client of Jefferies LLC and investment banking services are being or have been provided.
Jefferies Group LLC, its affiliates or subsidiaries has acted as a manager or co-manager in the underwriting or placement of securities for Global Health
Limited or one of its affiliates within the past twelve months.
Jefferies International Ltd, its affiliates or subsidiaries has, or had, within the past 12 months an agreement to provide investment services to Global
Health Limited.

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For Important Disclosure information on companies recommended in this report, please visit our website at https://javatar.bluematrix.com/
sellside/Disclosures.action or call 212.284.2300.

Explanation of Jefferies Ratings

Buy - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of 15% or more within a 12-month period.
Hold - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of plus 15% or minus 10% within a 12-month period.
Underperform - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of minus 10% or less within a 12-month period.
The expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) for Buy rated securities with an average security price consistently below $10 is 20% or more
within a 12-month period as these companies are typically more volatile than the overall stock market. For Hold rated securities with an average security
price consistently below $10, the expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) is plus or minus 20% within a 12-month period. For Underperform
rated securities with an average security price consistently below $10, the expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) is minus 20% or less within
a 12-month period.
NR - The investment rating and price target have been temporarily suspended. Such suspensions are in compliance with applicable regulations and/or
Jefferies policies.
CS - Coverage Suspended. Jefferies has suspended coverage of this company.
NC - Not covered. Jefferies does not cover this company.
Restricted - Describes issuers where, in conjunction with Jefferies engagement in certain transactions, company policy or applicable securities regulations
prohibit certain types of communications, including investment recommendations.
Monitor - Describes securities whose company fundamentals and financials are being monitored, and for which no financial projections or opinions on
This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited.

the investment merits of the company are provided.

Valuation Methodology
Jefferies' methodology for assigning ratings may include the following: market capitalization, maturity, growth/value, volatility and expected total return
over the next 12 months. The price targets are based on several methodologies, which may include, but are not restricted to, analyses of market risk,
growth rate, revenue stream, discounted cash flow (DCF), EBITDA, EPS, cash flow (CF), free cash flow (FCF), EV/EBITDA, P/E, PE/growth, P/CF, P/FCF,
premium (discount)/average group EV/EBITDA, premium (discount)/average group P/E, sum of the parts, net asset value, dividend returns, and return on
equity (ROE) over the next 12 months.
Jefferies Franchise Picks
Jefferies Franchise Picks include stock selections from among the best stock ideas from our equity analysts over a 12 month period. Stock selection is
based on fundamental analysis and may take into account other factors such as analyst conviction, differentiated analysis, a favorable risk/reward ratio
and investment themes that Jefferies analysts are recommending. Jefferies Franchise Picks will include only Buy rated stocks and the number can vary
depending on analyst recommendations for inclusion. Stocks will be added as new opportunities arise and removed when the reason for inclusion changes,
the stock has met its desired return, if it is no longer rated Buy and/or if it triggers a stop loss. Stocks having 120 day volatility in the bottom quartile of
S&P stocks will continue to have a 15% stop loss, and the remainder will have a 20% stop. Franchise Picks are not intended to represent a recommended
portfolio of stocks and is not sector based, but we may note where we believe a Pick falls within an investment style such as growth or value.

Risks which may impede the achievement of our Price Target

This report was prepared for general circulation and does not provide investment recommendations specific to individual investors. As such, the financial
instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own investment decisions based upon their
specific investment objectives and financial situation utilizing their own financial advisors as they deem necessary. Past performance of the financial
instruments recommended in this report should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future results. The price, value of, and income from, any of
the financial instruments mentioned in this report can rise as well as fall and may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors. If
a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than the investor's home currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the price
of, value of, or income derived from the financial instrument described in this report. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, whose values are
affected by the currency of the underlying security, effectively assume currency risk.

Other Companies Mentioned in This Report

• Axis Bank (AXSB IN: INR982.55, BUY)
• Global Health Limited (MEDANTA IN: INR702.65, BUY)
• Godrej Properties Ltd (GPL IN: INR1,658.70, BUY)
• ICICI Bank (IBN: $23.35, BUY)
• ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN: INR958.40, BUY)
• Kajaria Ceramics Limited (KJC IN: INR1,440.10, BUY)
• KEI Industries Ltd (KEII IN: INR2,684.95, BUY)
• Larsen & Toubro (LT IN: INR2,708.80, BUY)
• Macrotech Developers (LODHA IN: INR668.85, BUY)
• Max Healthcare Institute Ltd (MAXHEALT IN: INR575.30, BUY)
• Meta Platforms, Inc. (META: $295.10, BUY)
• Siemens Limited (SIEM IN: INR3,868.50, BUY)
• State Bank of India (SBIN IN: INR567.65, BUY)

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• Thermax Limited (TMX IN: INR2,758.30, BUY)

• UltraTech Cement Ltd (UTCEM IN: INR8,260.60, BUY)

Distribution of Ratings IB Serv./Past12 Mos. JIL Mkt Serv./Past12 Mos.

Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent

BUY 1826 58.13% 310 16.98% 108 5.91%

HOLD 1164 37.06% 110 9.45% 13 1.12%

UNDERPERFORM 151 4.81% 5 3.31% 3 1.99%

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