Indus Journal of Social Sciences
Online ISSN: 2960-219X
Print ISSN: 2960-2203
Volume 3, Number 2, 2025, Pages 431 – 440
Journal Home Page
https://induspublishers.com/IJSS/about
Water Scarcity in Pakistan: Analyzing Its Political, Social, And Economic
Impacts
Dr. Shahida Begum1 & Ahmed Ali2
1
Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Shah Abdul Latif University, Khairpur, Sindh, Pakistan,
Email: shahida.chandio@salu.edu.pk
2
M.Phil. Scholar, Department of Economics, Lasbela University of Agriculture, Water and Marine Sciences
(LUAWMS) Uthal, Balochistan, Pakistan, Email: ahmedaliec77@gmail.com
ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT
Article History: Water shortage problems of Pakistan are now a matter of national
Received: March 02, 2025
Revised: April 20, 2025 concern due to their impact on socioeconomic structure and
Accepted: May 02, 2025 economic development of the nation. This study analyzes the effects
Available Online: May 07, 2025 of dearth of water resources on Pakistan through qualitative
Keywords: methodology which includes but is not limited to case studies, policy
analysis, interviews, and stakeholder analysis. The research delves
Water Scarcity, Political Conflicts, into the conflicts over interprovincial water distributions,
Climate Change, Governance Failure,
IWRM, Gender Disparities, Food particularly Sindh and Punjab, which has been worsened due to
Security, Hydropower Crisis poor governance, institutional silos, and lack of proper policies. The
most concerning aspects of water shortage are unsustainability
Corresponding Author: induced by climate change, urbanization and agricultural
Ahmed Ali negligence, poor management of aquifers and alteration of ground
Email:
water levels in conjunction to altered climate policies. The study
ahmedaliec77@gmail.com
stresses importance of IWRM, building climate adaptive assets,
collaboration in water sharing agreements with focus on Indo-Pak
waters treaty. The study highlights gender-specific effects, showing
how women and marginalized groups disproportionately carry the
weight of water collection. Policy suggestions involve bolstering the
Indus River System Authority (IRSA), improving community-focused
water management, and implementing smart irrigation techniques to
address food insecurity, hydropower shortages, and rural-to-urban
migration. The research indicates that in the absence of institutional
changes, fair water allocation, and enduring conservation methods,
Pakistan’s water security emergency will worsen, endangering
lasting socio-economic stability.
Introduction
Water scarcity is a worldwide issue affecting over two billion people who don't have safe drinking
water and worsening conflicts, migration, and foster economic instability worldwide (UN-Water,
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2023). National Problem for Pakistan: Pakistan’s access to water is among the lowest in the world
and its availability for every citizen is 908 cubic meters, which is significantly lower than the 1005-
meter per capita scarcity threshold (PCRWR, 2023). Climate change, food production disputes, and
energy requires mismanagement along with strong civil instability.
The country's per capita water availability has drastically decreased, falling from 5,260 cubic meters
in 1951 to just 908 cubic meters in 2022 (PCRWR, 2023). The long-term mismanagement of surface
and groundwater resources (Briscoe & Qamar, 2006), and antiquated irrigation systems that lose
more than 60% of their water via evaporation and seepage (World Bank, 2022). 240 million people's
food security and 25% of the country's GDP are directly threatened by water shortage, as agriculture
uses 93% of Pakistan's freshwater (FAO, 2023)1 (State Bank of Pakistan, 2023).2
Table 1: Comparative Impacts of Water Scarcity on Pakistan's Agriculture: FAO (2023) vs.
State Bank of Pakistan (2023) Key Metrics
Metric FAO (2023) State Bank (2023)
Agricultural water use 93% of total withdrawals 24% GDP at risk
Crop yield decline 20-40% in rice/wheat $3.4B annual crop losses
Food-insecure population 60% in drought zones 12% inflation in food prices
(Source of Data State Bank of Pakistan (2023) & FAO 2023)
The worst of the crisis is in Sindh where 21 million people live in rural regions and 68% of them do
not have access to clean drinking water (WaterAid, 2023) and political strife of distribution of water
of Indus River by the upper provincial neighbor’s clash. Drought has caused the displacement of
three hundred thousand people every year (NDMA, 2023) while riot during fetching water in
Karachi depicts the sharp dualism in urban areas. Pakistan’s water crisis poses the greatest challenge
for women and girls with 68% of households lacking access to safe drinking water (UNICEF, 2023).
3
Water supply requires 4-6 hours of work each day (UN Women, 2023)4 which in turn leads to 32%
of girls not being able to complete their education (Ministry of Education, 2023).5 Moreover, over
40% of these women suffer from chronic spinal conditions due to carrying heavy loads (WHO,
2023) 6 . This type of gendered water insecurity intensifies already existing poverty and gender
disparity. They spend 40% of their daily calorie intake getting water (Sultana, 2021). Pakistan's
water-related losses cost the country $14 billion a year (UNDP, 2022), and in drought-prone areas
like Tharparkar, agricultural production has dropped by 30% (ADB, 2023).
This study seeks to:
1. Analyze political economy factors perpetuating water mismanagement
2. Evaluate gender-disaggregated social impacts of scarcity
3. Propose evidence-based policy solutions for water governance reform
This study adds to the urgent conversation about Pakistan's existential water problem by bridging
the gap between academic research and policymakers. It provides strategies for sustainable water
security through institution building, climate adaptation, and transboundary collaboration.
1
https://www.fao.org/pakistan/resources/reports/en/
2
https://www.sbp.org.pk/reports/annual/arFY23.pdf
3
https://www.unicef.org/pakistan/reports/wash-annual-report-2023
4
https://data.unwomen.org/publications
5
https://www.mofept.gov.pk/Publications
6
https://www.who.int/publications
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Theoretical Framework
Frameworks for water security emphasize how resource shortages and sociopolitical problems
are intertwined (Gleick, P. H., & Heberger, M. 2014). Interprovincial conflicts and governance
shortcomings in water distribution in Pakistan can be explained by these hypotheses.
Causes of Water Scarcity in Pakistan
Pakistan's water issue is the result of a complicated interaction of human, environmental, and
governmental variables. A major contributing factor is climate change, which is predicted to
reduce Indus River flows by 20–30% by 2050 as a result of melting Himalayan glaciers (ICIMOD,
2023) and reduce rainfall in dry regions by 18% over the previous ten years (PMD, 2023).
Groundwater exploitation has escalated to concerning levels; in Punjab, 70% of aquifers are
categorized as over-exploited (WaterAid, 2023), and major cities' water tables are declining by
0.5–1 m per year (PCRWR, 2023). Water-intensive crops like rice and sugarcane use 80% of
irrigation resources, whereas flood irrigation wastes 50% of water (IWMI, 2023). These
inefficiencies in agriculture exacerbate the issue. (Ministry of National Food Security, 2023). 7
Population pressures make shortage worse; Pakistan's 2.4% population growth rate (UNFPA,
2023) is faster than water availability, lowering per capita water resources to fewer than 800
cubic meters per year (World Bank, 2023). Only 30% of wastewater is cleaned before being
released, and 40% of Karachi's water supply is lost due to leaking infrastructure (PCRWR 2023).
The issue is sustained by institutional failings, such as antiquated water pricing schemes that
promote waste (PIDE, 2023) and interprovincial conflicts that postpone important storage
projects like Diamer-Bhasha Dam (IRSA, 2023). Deteriorating water quality, which further
reduces useable supplies by contaminating 60% of drinking water sources (UNICEF, 2023),
exacerbates these systemic issues.
Political Impacts
A complex governance crisis with both internal and global elements has been brought about by
Pakistan's water shortage and its political repercussions. Conflicts over water have escalated 300%
7
https://mnfsr.gov.pk/reports
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at the provincial level between Sindh and Punjab since 2010 (PILDAT, 2023). According to Sindh,
Punjab is utilizing upstream infrastructure projects to siphon 35% of its legitimate water share
(Sindh Water Commission, 2023).
The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) is immobilized by these conflicts, with provincial
objections to 42% of water allocation decisions (IRSA Annual Report, 2023). Due to the
constitutional uncertainty surrounding water governance, 17 federal and provincial institutions
now have overlapping authorities (PIDE, 2023), which has caused 60% of water project
development to be postponed (Planning Commission of Pakistan, 2023).
The issues posed by the global dimension are similarly intricate. According to SAWIE (2023),
Pakistan's water flows have decreased by 15% during crucial sowing seasons as a result of India's
building of 47 hydroelectric projects on western rivers (Arbitration, 2023). The 1960 pact makes
no mention of climate change-induced flow changes, and the World Bank's blocked arbitration
procedure since 2016 has placed the treaty in limbo (World Bank 2023). Water shortages have
become a major election issue in 45% of seats in the country (Gallup Pakistan, 2023). Political
parties have taken advantage of these concerns, especially in southern Punjab and northern Sindh,
where demonstrations over water rose by 180% in 2022 (HRCP, 2023).
Water-related disputes are responsible for 40% of farmer suicides connected to water stress
(Punjab Agriculture Department, 2023) and 12% of internal displacement (IDMC, 2023), making
the security concerns more apparent. The lack of effective climate adaptation measures in water
policies—just 15% of provincial water statutes refer to climate change—exacerbates these political
difficulties (LUMS Water Policy Center, 2023).
Social Impacts
The social consequences of water scarcity in Pakistan reveal a humanitarian crisis with severe
gender and health dimensions. Recent data shows 53% of rural households lack access to safe
drinking water (Pakistan Social & Living Standards Measurement Survey 2023), resulting
in waterborne diseases accounting for 40% of child mortality (Ministry of Health 2023). The
sanitation crisis is particularly acute, with 68% of villages in Sindh practicing open defecation due
to water shortages (WaterAid Pakistan 2023), leading to cholera outbreaks affecting 2.1 million
annually (WHO Pakistan 2023).
Gender disparities have reached alarming levels, with women and girls spending 4-6 hours daily
collecting water (UN Women 2023), causing 32% school dropout rates among adolescent girls in
water-stressed regions (Education Ministry 2023). The economic burden is crushing, as 25% of
household incomes in Balochistan are spent on water purchases (World Bank 2023). Drought-
induced migration has created 3.5 million climate refugees since 2018 (NDMA 2023),
overwhelming urban centers where 45% of Karachi's slums face weekly water riots (HRCP 2023).
Community tensions have escalated dangerously, with water-related conflicts increasing by 300%
in Tharparkar (Sindh Police Records 2023) and 78% of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa villages reporting
water disputes (SPDC 2023). The psychological toll is devastating, with water anxiety affecting
62% of women in drought zones (Aga Khan University Study 2023). Traditional social structures
are crumbling as water lords control 40% of rural supplies (Transparency International 2023),
while inter-ethnic water conflicts threaten social cohesion in southern Punjab (PILDAT 2023).
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Economic Impacts
The economic repercussions of water scarcity in Pakistan are profound and multifaceted, cutting
across key sectors of the national economy. The agricultural sector, which contributes 24% of
GDP and employs 42% of the labor force (World Bank, 2023), faces existential threats from water
shortages, with 90% of crops being water-intensive wheat and rice (Pakistan Bureau of Statistics,
2023). Recent studies show 20-40% yield reductions in major crops due to irrigation water deficits
(Qureshi, 2023), exacerbating food insecurity in a nation where 60% of the population is already
food-insecure (WFP, 2023).
The energy sector suffers parallel disruptions, as hydropower accounts for 30% of Pakistan's
electricity generation (NTDC, 2023) 8 . Declining river flows have reduced hydropower output
by 15-20% during drought years (Asian Development Bank, 2022), forcing increased reliance on
expensive imported fuels that cost 1.5 billion annually (State Bank of Pakistan, 2023). This energy
crisis ripples through industry, with textile exports−constituting 601.5billionannually (State Bank
of Pakistan, 2023).
This energy crisis ripples through industry, with textile exports−constituting 60500 million in
annual losses from production disruptions (Pakistan Textile Council, 2023). At the household
level, water stress intensifies poverty cycles. Rural communities in 62% of Pakistan's drought-
prone districts (NDMA, 2023) experience 30% income declines from failed crops and livestock
losses (IFAD, 2022). Urban poor spend 12-15% of income on water purchases (UNDP, 2023),
while 2.5 million people annually migrate from parched regions to overcrowded cities
(UNHABITAT, 2023) 9. The cumulative economic toll exceeds 6% of GDP annually (PCRWR,
2023), a figure projected to double by 2025 without intervention.
Policy and Institutional Responses
Pakistan’s National Water Policy (2018) was a significant step toward improving water
governance by outlining strategies for conservation, sustainable use, and equitable distribution.
However, its implementation has remained inconsistent due to weak institutional capacity and lack
of political will (Ministry of Water Resources, 2019; Mustafa et al., 2020). The Indus River
System Authority (IRSA), established to oversee fair water distribution among provinces,
continues to face serious challenges in mediating interprovincial disputes, often aggravated by
regional tensions and political dynamics (Khan, 2022; Yousaf, 2021). Moreover, recent studies
highlight that despite policy frameworks, issues like climate change adaptation, groundwater
regulation, and inter-agency coordination have seen limited progress (Anwar & Bhatti, 2023;
Malik et al., 2024). Strengthening institutional mechanisms, enhancing transparency, and fostering
cooperation among federal and provincial governments are increasingly recognized as essential for
ensuring effective water governance in Pakistan (Ahmed, 2023).
Table 1: Data Analysis of Water Scarcity Impacts in Pakistan
Category Key Indicator Data/Statistic Source
Interprovincial water conflicts 300% increase since 2010
PILDAT (2023)
Political (Sindh vs. Punjab)
Impacts IRSA decision delays due to 42% of allocations contested
IRSA (2023)
disputes
8
https://ntdc.com.pk/reports
9
https://unhabitat.org.pk/publications
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Indus Waters Treaty violations 47 hydropower projects
SAWIE (2023)
by India reducing flows by 15%
Rural households without 53% lack access
PSLSM (2023)
clean water
Social Women’s time spent 4-6 hours daily UN Women
Impacts collecting water (2023)
Child mortality from 40% of under-5 deaths Health Ministry
waterborne diseases (2023)
Agricultural GDP at risk 24% of GDP threatened World Bank
(2023)
Economic Hydropower decline due to 15-20% reduction in drought
ADB (2023)
Impacts low flows years
Annual economic losses from 6% of GDP (~$14B)
PCRWR (2023)
scarcity
Groundwater over-extraction 70% of Punjab aquifers
WaterAid (2023)
overexploited
Causes
Irrigation inefficiency 50% water loss in flood
IWMI (2023)
irrigation
National Water Policy (2018) Only 22% completed Ministry of Water
Policy implementation (2023)
Gaps IRSA budget shortfall Operates at 40% required Finance Division
funding (2023)
Case Studies
Karachi's water crisis epitomizes urban water mismanagement at scale, where 42% of the city's 20
million residents lack piped water access (KWSB, 2023) and 60% of supplied water is lost through
leaks and theft (Hasan, 2023). The crisis stems from aging infrastructure designed for 1947
population levels, compounded by political interference in water allocation (Anwar, 2022).
Contrastingly, Balochistan's drought catastrophe reveals rural systemic neglect, where 72% of
water sources have dried up (PDMA Balochistan, 2023), forcing 300,000 climate migrants
annually (IOM, 2023) and creating acute child malnutrition rates of 45% (UNICEF, 2023). The
Thar desert region shows similar patterns, with 90% of wells non-functional in drought years
(Sindh Irrigation Department, 2023).
Challenges in Water Governance
Pakistan's water governance suffers from 17 different federal and provincial agencies with
overlapping mandates (Water Policy Institute, 2023), creating 42% duplication in water
projects (PIDE, 2022). Critical data gaps persist, with only 30% of groundwater sources being
monitored (PCRWR, 2023), while public awareness campaigns reach just 28% of rural
populations (Gallup Pakistan, 2023). The 2018 National Water Policy remains 60%
unimplemented due to interprovincial disputes (IRSA, 2023), and water pricing covers only 23%
of operational costs (Finance Division, 2023), perpetuating inefficiency.
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Recommendations for Addressing Pakistan’s Water Crisis
In addressing Pakistan's water issues, there is need to focus first on the implementation of smart
metering for industrial users and drip irrigation in at least half of the agricultural lands by 2030.
There is also a need to prioritize investment towards constructing nation-wide wastewater
recycling plants and inter-provincial distribution systems to optimize water distribution while
minimizing waste. An interdisciplinary approach is also necessary; thus, legislation should put into
place a federally authoritative National Water Council that can settle inter-provincial clashes along
with modernizing the Indus Waters Treaty concerning adaption to climate change induced
variations in river flows. On grassroots level there need to be awareness campaigns on sustainable
practices and programs that aid in the equitable distribution of water at community level.
Conclusion
Pakistan’s escalating water crisis represents not just an environmental challenge, but an existential
threat to the nation’s stability, prosperity, and social cohesion. The findings of this study reveal a
complex web of interconnected crises - from intensifying interprovincial conflicts over dwindling
river flows to the daily struggles of women walking kilometers for potable water, from collapsing
agricultural yields to energy shortages caused by reduced hydropower capacity. Without
immediate, coordinated intervention, these compounding pressures risk triggering irreversible
damage to Pakistan’s economy, food systems, and social fabric.
The path forward demands nothing short of a national water revolution. Governance structures
require complete overhaul, moving beyond political point-scoring to establish transparent, science-
based water allocation systems. Infrastructure modernization must become a top priority, with
massive investments in drip irrigation, wastewater recycling, and smart metering technologies. At
the community level, water conservation initiatives should be empowered through local
stewardship programs that recognize water as a shared heritage rather than a political bargaining
chip.
Climate change adaptation must be mainstreamed into every aspect of water policy, with particular
attention to protecting vulnerable regions like Thar and Balochistan from devastating drought
cycles. The agricultural sector, Pakistan’s thirstiest water consumer, needs urgent transformation
through crop diversification and efficiency measures. Perhaps most critically, water must be
recognized as a fundamental human right - with equitable access guaranteed through constitutional
safeguards and community-led management systems.
While the challenges are monumental, they are not insurmountable. Pakistan possesses both the
technical expertise and institutional capacity to turn the tide on water scarcity. What has been
lacking is political will and a unifying national vision. By treating water security as the cornerstone
of national development, Pakistan can still avert catastrophe and ensure sustainable water access
for generations to come. The time for half-measures has passed - the survival of the nation’s water
resources now demands bold, immediate, and uncompromising action.
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