Public Disclosure Authorized

SWP-619
The Contribution of Agriculture
to Economic Growth
Some Empirical Evidence
Erh-Cheng Hwa FILE
Public Disclosure Authorized

WORLD BANK STAFF WORKING PAPERS

Number 619
Public Disclosure Authorized
Public Disclosure Authorized
 WORLD BANK STAFF WORKING PAPERS
Number 619

The Contribution of Agriculture

to Economic Growth
Some Empirical Evidence

Erh-Cheng Hwa

The World Bank

Washington, D.C., U.S.A.
Copyright © 1983
The International Bank for Reconstruction
and Development / THE WORLD BANK
1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A.

First printing November 1983

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Erh-Cheng Hwa is a senior economist in the Economic Analysis and

Projections Department of the World Bank.

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data

Hwa, Erh-Cheng.
The contribution of agriculture to economic growth.

(The World Bank staff working papers ; no. 619)

Bibliography: p.
1. Agriculture--Economic aspects. 2. Economic
development. 3. Agricultural productivity. 4. Indus-
trial productivity. I. Title. II. Series.
HD1433.H87 1983 338.1 83-21760
ISBN 0-8213-0265-5
 ABSTRACT

The paper analyzes the contribution of agriculture to economic

growth. By employing cross-sectiondata for the developing and developed

countries during 1960-1970 and 1970-1979,it is found that in the context of

Mr. Chenery-Syrquin'smodel intercountry variation in agricultural growth

explains a significant portion of intercountryvariation in the industrial

growth. Further, in the context of an aggregateproduction

(non-agricultural)

function agricultural growth is found to contribute significantly to

productivity increases and thus to overall economic growth. For the

developingcountries sample of the 1970-1979period, the results show that a

one percent increase in agriculturalgrowth leads to approximatelyfour-tenths

of a percentagepoint increase in productivity. It is also found that export

growth contributespositively to productivitygrowth while the inflationrate

contributesnegatively.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The author is grateful to Messrs. Guy Pfeffermann,Allan Gelb, John

D. Shilling,and F. Desmond McCarthy for their commentson an earlier draft of

this paper and to Mr. Soonwon Kwon for his assistancein the preparation of

this paper. The author is, however, solely responsible for any remaining

errors.
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

1. Introduction .................................................. 1

II. The ReLationship Between Agriculture

aindIndustrial Growth ....................................
2

III. Agricu:Ltureand Overall Economic Growth --

A Production Function Approach........................... 7

Other VlariablesAffecting Productivity Change.................8

The Moclel..........................................................
10

IV. Summary and Conclusion .. 20

References .. .............................................
...22

Annex ....
,.23

LIST OF TABLES

Page

Table 1 Estimated Regression Coefficients for Equation (5)......... 5

Table 2 Expected Disparity Between the Rates of Industrial

and Agricultural Growth .. . 7

Table 3 Country Sample: 1960-70 .. 13

Table 4 Country Sample: 1970-79 ................................ . 14

Table 5 Estimated Regression Coefficients

for Annual Growth in GDP: 1960-1970.................15

Table 6 Estimated Regression Coefficient for Annual

Unexplained Growth in GDP ............................ 16

Table 7 Estimated Regression Coefficients

for Annual Growth in GDP: 1970-1979.................17

Table 8 Sources of Economic Growth: 1970-1979....... 20

I. INTRODUCTION

Despite the dominant positionoccupiedby the agriculturalsector in

a traditional economy, many parts of the developingworld have continuously

denied agriculturaland rural developmentadequate attention. This has often

led to a stagnantagriculture that, in turn, has resulted in large shortfalls

of domestic food production, balance of payment crises, and political

instability.1/ For a primitive agrarian economy, it is doubtful that

industrializationcan succeed without the prior or concurrentemergence of a

productiveagriculturalsector.

This paper undertakesa statisticalanalysis of the significanceof

the contributionof agricultureto economicgrowth by the use of cross section

data. The major conclusion of the analysis is that agriculturalgrowth is a

significantdeterminant of both industrialand overall economic growth. The

empirical evidence thus reinforces the argument that agriculture and rural

developmentshould be given priority and be properly supported in an overall

development strategy. The paper also shows that the rate of growth of export

is positivelycorrelatedwith the rate of economicgrowth. The inflationrate

rate, however,has a negative correlation.

1/ For evidence, see Accelerated Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: An

Agenda for Action (Washington,D.C.: The World Bank, 1981).
 - 2-

The paper contains three main sections. Section II analyzes the

relationship between agriculture and industry during the development

process. Section III examines the contributionof agriculture to economic

growth in the frameworkof a productionfunction. The summary and conclusions

are given in the last section.

II. The RelationshipBetween Agricultureand IndustrialGrowth

The transition from a traditional agrarian economy to an

industrializedeconomy is a dynamic process that inevitablyinvolves complex

interactions among many economic as well as social factors. The role of

agriculture in the transitional process varies from country to country,

conditioned by factor endowment, institutional arrangements, cultural

background, historical factors, policy choices, etc. Nevertheless,drawing

from the experience of both developing and developed countries, one can

identify several important roles played by agriculture in the transition

process [e.g. Johnston and Mellor (1961), Johnston and Kilby (1975)]: (1)

agriculture generates markets for industrial products, especially light

industrialproducts which have ready markets in the agriculturalsector; (2)

agriculture provides food and agricultural raw materials for industrial

processing; (3) agriculturebuilds adequate food supplies which are a crucial

factor in sustainingprice stability;(4) agricultureprovides exports to earn

foreign exchangie;(5) agriculture supplies the non-agriculturalsector with

capital and labor; and (6) in the case of a market-oriented agriculture,

through the gradual accumulation of entrepreneurship and marketing

capabilities in the agricultural sector, eases the process of

industrialization.In sum, the agriculturalsector supportsindustrialization

 - 3-

by providing a source of labor, capital and raw materials to the non-

agriculturesector and by generatingdemand for industrialproducts.

The relationship between agriculture and industry may be one of

interdependenceand complementarity. For example, while providing inputs to

industry, agriculture receives from Industry modern farm inputs, advanced

technologies, and consumption goods to increase agricultural productivity.

The statistical significance of this relationship may be tested by the

following non-linear model of the Chenery-Syrquin(1975) type which relates

the rate of industrial growth (I) to per capita income (YN) and to the rate

of agriculturalgrowth (A):

I = 2 ) + u,
f (A,lnYN, (lnYN) (1)

where u is a randomly distributederror term.

The model is derived in the following way. First, assume that the

rate of growth of industry and of agricultureare both non-linearfunctions of

per capita income variables:

I = a ln YN + (lnYN) + c (2)

and

A = aA InYN + A(lnYN) +eA, (3)

where eI and eA are random errors.

 - 4-

These are simplified reduced form models for the determinationof

industrialand agriculturalgrowth. The per capita income variables are used

as a summary measure of the stage of economic developmentin addition to being

a measure of final demand. Chenery and Taylor (1968) have used similar models

to study patterns of economic development. Alternatively,these regressions

can be thought:of as establishing"norms" for the rates of growth of industry

and agriculture with reference to the stage of economic development as

measured by the level of per capita income. It is possible to test the

hypothesis of whether countries with higher industrial growth in relation to

the "normal"industrialgrowth also are those with higher agriculturalgrowth

with reference to its norm. This can be done by regressing the residuals in

equation (2) on the residuals in equation (3).

S I = ye A+ u, y>o, (4)

where u is a randomly distributederror term.

Substituting(2) and (3) into (4) and rearrangingterms yield

.+ ~~~~~~~~~~~~2
I = Y (a ya) lnYN - (y - 8) (InYN) + u * (5)

This is the explicit form of equation 1. This equationalso implies that the

disparity between industrial and agricultural growth, I - A, is a second

order non-linearfunctionof per capita income.

The estimation of equation (5) is based on two cross-country

samples: one consists of 63 countries for the decade of the 1960s and the

other has 87 countries for the decade of the 1970s. Both samples include
developing as well as developed countries. The data sources are provided in

the Annex. The estimation results are contained below in Table 1.

Table 1: ESTIMATEDREGRESSIONCOEFFICIENTS FOR ANNUALINDUSTRIALGROWTH

Equation Period lnYN (lnYN) 2 A Constant R2

1 19 60-7 0 9.277* -0.658* - -24.331* 0.12

(2.7) (2.8) (2.1)

2 1970-79 13.068** -0.904** - -40.594** 0.13

(3.4) (3.4) (3.1)

3 1960-70 6.548 -0.458 0.491* -16.730 0.18

(1.8) (1.8) (2.1) (2.1)

4 1970-79 9.477** -0.649* 0.722** -29.873* 0.28

(2.6) (2.6) (4.1) (2.4)

Note: This table is based on equation (5) in the text.

Numbers underneath respective coefficients in parenthesis are t-statistics.

Coefficients with significance level above 5% are indicated by "*" and those
above 1% are designated by **'.

The notations have the following meanings:

I - the average annual rate of growth of industry that comprises

mining, manufacturing, construction, and electricity, water and
gas.

YN = GNP per capita in 1970 and 1979, respectively, for the 1960-70
sample and the 1970-79 sample.

A = the average annual rate of growth of agriculture.

First, note that the regressions with the per capita income

variables alone (equations 1 and 2) depict a parabolic curve, indicating that

 - 6-

at a relative low income level industrial growth will increase as per capita

income increases and when per capita income reaches a certain level, the rate

of industrial growth will reach a maximum and then taper off.

The tihird and fourth equations show that the growth rate of

agriculture is a statistically significant variable in explaining industrial

growth and it has the power to raise the R2 significantly, especially for the

1970-79 sample. The introduction of the agriculture variable does not alter

the signs of the per capita income variables but does reduce their statistical

significance. The estimated regressions indicate that the disparity between

industrial and agricultural growth is a second-order non-linear function in

per capita income. Based on the 1970-79 cross section data of 87 countries,

this disparity is illustrated in Table 2 for a selected number of income

levels. As the itableshows, the expected value of the disparity rises quickly

over the low- an<lmiddle-income range (US $100 to US $1,500) and slowly tapers

off after the middle income range.

The empirical evidence thus indicates that over the course of

economic development, agricultural growth is a significant determinant of

industrial growth. As reasoned earlier, the relationship between agriculture

and industry, however, is more likely to be interdependent rather than causal.

 - 7-

Table 2: EXPECTED DISPARITY BETWEEN THE RATES OF INDUSTRIALAND AGRICULTURAL

GROWTH
(in per cent)

Per Capita Income

(in US Dollars)

100 0.5
200 1.8
250 2.4
500 3.7
1,000 4.3
1,500 4.4
2,500 4.2
3,000 4.1
4,000 3.8
8,000 2.6
10,000 2.0

III. Agricultureand Overall EconomicGrowth - A ProductionFunction Approach

The empirical evidence presented in the previous section suggests

that the linkage between agriculture and industry may be strong and

significant during economic development. In this section I will examine the

contribution of agriculture to economic growth from the perspective of an

aggregate production function. The hypothesis formulatedand tested here is

that agriculturecontributesto economic growth through its impact on the rate

of increasein productivity.

There are at least two reasons why agricultural performance is

closely related to the overall productivity of an economy. First,

industrializationand the accompaniedurbanizationgeneratea growing need for

food and raw materials, which can only be met with adequate agricultural

supplies. A poorly performed agriculturalsector often results in a terms of

trade that is against industry, in a loss of foreign exchange, or in an

 - 8 -

inadequate demand for industrial output that restricts industrialexpansion.

These conditions would hamper the transfer of resources from agriculture to

industry or make it very costly to do so. On the other hand, rapid

agricultural growth makes feasible more per capita domestic consumption,

higher exports of agricultural products, and greater absorption of

agricultural labor force by the industrial sector. It would, therefore,

increase the efficiency of the resource transfers. As Robinson (1971) has

shown, transfers of capital and labour from a low productivity sector

(agriculture)to a high productivitysector (manufacturing)could be a source

of economic growth.

Second, high agriculturalgrowth largely reflects high average labor

productivityin agriculture which, in turn, is supported by the high quality

of human resources and physical capital inputs into the rural sector. For

instance, comparing the agricultural productivity differences between

developing and developed countris, Hayami and Ruttan (1970) have found that

about two-thirdsof the differences can be accounted for by the differencein

technology,as embodied in fixed working capital and in human capital, broadly

conceived to include the education, skills, knowledge and capacity present in

a country-s population. These considerationssuggest the inclusion of the

rate of agriculituralgrowth as an additional variable in an aggregate

production function to measure both the effect of the efficiencyof resource

transfers between agricultureand industry and of the changes of agricultural

productivityon economic growth.

Other VariablesAffecting ProductivityChange

It might be useful to consider other variables that might influence

productivity changes to minimize misspecificationof the production function

 - 9 -

to be estimated below. Here, I will consider two variables - the rate of

2!
exports growth and the rate of inflation.

The contribution of the former to economic growth is usually

rationalizedon such grounds as: (1) exports provide for the economy of scale

operations,and (2) higher export growth enhancescompetitionwhich is brought

from international markets. These factors would promote efficiency and

therefore raise economic growth. The positive correlation between export

growth rates and GNP growth rates for the LDCs has been found in a number of

studies, i.e., Michalopoulos and Tay (1973), Michaely (1977), and Krueger

(1977). Recently, in the context of an aggregate productionfunction,Balassa

(1978), Tyler (1981) and Feder (1982) have all found that the growth in

exports contributessignificantlyto the intercountrydifferencesin the rates

of economic growth. These studies differed from earlier ones in that besides

exports, they had simultaneouslyconsidered the contributionsmade by factor

inputs, i.e., by capital and labor. They are, therefore, able to delineate

more robustly the effects of exports on economic growth.

The rate of inflation, however, affects economic growth negatively

for at least the following reasons (Tsiang, 1983). First, inflation by

increasing the variance of relative prices may make efficient planning of

productiondifficult and as a result productivitysuffers. Second, inflation

accompanied by government controls would lead to very low real interest

rates. This would lead to a false sense of cheapness of capital and to

unproductiveuses of such capital. Thirdly, below equilibriuminterest rates

accompanied by high inflation would turn the flow of savings away from

1/ Exports and inflation, however, are not the only factors that influence
productivity. Education could be another factor but is omitted here
(Selowsky,1969).
 - 10 -

financial institutions and force them into unproductiveinvestments such as

hoardingsof previousmetals and investmentson housing.

The Model

To test the hypothesis formulated above, I will use the following

Cobb-Douglasproductionfunction:

Y = C KaLoelog R (6)

where Y is gross domestic product; C is a scale parameter;K is capital stock,

L is labor force; elog R indicates the rate of technologicalchange over time

which is taken l:obe synonymouswith productivitychange.

Rewriting the variables in equation (6) in terms of the rate of

change over time yields

Y = aK + SL + R. (7)

In the literature of production function analysis the productivity

change (R) in the production function (7) is frequently treated as a

"residual"and the production functionis estimatedaccordingly. The argument

presentedhere assumes that the rate of productivitychange will be positively

influenced by both the rates of agricultural growth (A) and export growth

(X) but negativelyrelated to the rate of inflation (P)

R = yA + OX + nP + c, Y, 0 >0, n<O, (8)

 - 11 -

where e is a residual, assumed to be randomly distributed. Combining (7) and

(8) yields

Y = aK + $L + yA + OX + nP + c (9)

where Y = the average annual rate of growth in GDP

K = the average annual rate of growth in capital, proxied

by the average investmentrate

L the average annual rate of growth in labor force

L = the average annual rate of growth in exports

P = the average annual rate of inflation

Since agriculture is a part of total output, to test whether

agricultural growth contributes significantlyto productivity increases, we

first regress the part of economic growth that cannot be explainedby growth

in factor inputs (capitaland labor) and factors influencingthe productivity

change (export growth and inflation) on agricultural growth - that is, we

regress the unexplained residuals of the production function on agricultural

growth as the following:./

Y - aK - L - OX - nP = yA + e, (10)

where a, 8, A, and n are the estimates of a, 8, 0 and n , respectively,when

agriculturalgrowth (A) is omitted from equation (9).

1/ This should provide a robust test because, unlike total economic growth
itself, the residualsof the productionfunctionas indicatedby the left
hand side of equation (10) need not bear any systematicrelationshipwithi
agriculturalgrowth, a priori.
 - 12 -

The hypothesis is tested with cross-country samples from two

periods: 1960--1970and 1970-1979. For the first period, the sample includes

56 countries of which 41 are developing countries (Table 3). For the second

period, because of the greater availability of country data, the sample is

increased to 81 countries of which 68 are developing countries (Table 4).

For both time periods, empirical results are obtained for the developing

country sample as well as for the whole sample.

First, turn to the developing country sample results for the 1960-

1970 period, and note that capital and labor contribute to slightly less than

one third of the variations in total output (Table 5, equation 1). When the

rate of export growth (X) and inflation (P) are added to the regression, this

increases the explained variations in total output from one third to slightly

less than one-half (equation 2) and reduces the labor elasticity from 1.6 to

1.2. All the variables are significant at above the 5 percent level, except

for the inflation rate. The estimated coefficients obtained for the all-

country sample that includes the developed countries are very similar to those

obtained for the developing country sample -- compare equation 2 with equation

6, for example -- and they are more efficient as evidenced by higher t-values

which reflects a larger sample. Table 6 contains the empirical results of the

contribution of agricultural growth to the portion of economic growth that is

not explained by capital and labor inputs and by productivity changes due to

export growth and inflation. It is shown that the marginal contribution of

agriculture to economic growth is statistically significant at above the one

percent level (equations 1 and 2). It indicates that agricultural growth

accounted for an additional 18 percent of the increase in total productivity

for the developing countries during 1960-70 and 16 percent for the
 - 13 -

Table 3: COUNTRYSAMPLE: 1960-70

Average Annual Rates of Growth (in percent)in

Labor
Country GDP Capital Force Exports Prices Agriculture

(Y) (K) (L) (X) (P) (A)

Bangladesh 3.6 11.3 2.1 6.5 3.7 2.7

Ethiopia 4.4 5.7 2.0 3.6 2.1 2.2
Somalia 1.0 4.3 1.7 2.3 4.5 -1.5
Burma 2.6 3.6 1.1 -11.6 2.7 4.1
India 3.4 5.5 1.5 3.0 7.1 1.9
Sri Lanka 4.6 6.6 2.1 4.7 1.8 3.0
Mozambique 4.6 8.3 1.9 6.0 2.8 2.1
Pakistan 6.7 6.9 1.9 8.2 3.3 4.9
Niger 2.9 3.0 3.0 6.0 2.1 3.3
Central African Rep. 1.9 1.3 1.7 8.1 4.1 0.8
Senegal 2.5 1.1 1.9 1.2 1.7 2.9
Angola 4.8 9.7 1.0 9.0 3.3 4.0
Egypt 4.2 3.1 1.9 3.2 2.7 2.9
Honduras 5.3 10.2 2.5 11.1 2.9 5.7
Bolivia 5.2 9.6 1.7 9.8 3.5 3.0
Thailand 8.2 15.8 2.0 5.2 1.8 5.5
Philippines 5.1 8.2 2.2 2.2 5.8 4.3
Congo, PR 2.7 2.9 1.5 5.1 5.4 1.0
Nicaragua 7.2 10.7 2.6 9.7 1.9 6.7
El Salvador 5.9 3.5 2.6 5.4 0.5 3.0
Nigeria 3.1 7.4 1.8 6.6 2.6 -0.4
Peru 4.9 1.0 2.0 2.0 10.4 3.7
Morocco 4.2 8.0 1.6 2.5 2.0 4.7
DominicanRepublic 4.5 11.4 2.3 -2.3 2.1 2.1
Colombia 5.1 4.5 3.0 2.2 11.9 3.5
Guatemala 5.6 7.9 2.5 9.1 0.1 4.3
Ivory Coast 8.0 12.7 3.6 8.8 2.8 4.2
Tunisia 4.7 4.2 0.7 4.2 3.7 2.0
Jamaica 4.5 7.8 0.4 4.7 3.9 1.5
Panama 7.8 12.4 3.4 10.5 1.6 5.7
Korea 8.6 23.6 3.0 34.1 17.5 4.4
Algeria 4.6 1.9 1.0 4.5 2.3 0.4
Mexico 7.2 9.6 2.8 2.8 3.6 3.8
Chile 4.5 3.7 1.4 0.6 32.9 2.6
Costa Rica 6.5 7.1 3.5 9.6 1.9 5.7
Uruguay 1.2 -1.8 0.9 2.2 51.1 1.9
Iran 11.3 12.2 2.5 12.6 -0.5 4.4
Argentina 4.2 4.1 1.3 3.4 21.7 2.2
Yugoslavia 5.8 4.7 0.6 7.7 12.6 3.3
Venezuela 6.0 7.6 2.8 1.6 1.3 5.8
Singapore 8.8 20.5 2.8 4.2 1.1 5.0
Italy 5.3 3.8 -0.1 13.6 4.4 2.8
UK 2.9 5.0 0.6 4.8 4.1 2.3
Finland 4.6 4.3 0.4 6.8 5.6 0.6
Austria 4.5 5.6 -0.6 9.6 3.7 1.2
Japan 10.5 14.0 1.9 17.2 4.9 4.0
Australia 5.5 6.2 2.6 6.5 3.1 2.7
Canada 5.6 5.8 2.6 10.0 3.1 2.5
France 5.7 7.3 0.6 8.2 4.2 1.8
Netherlands 5.5 6.8 1.6 9.9 5.4 2.9
USA 4.3 4.8 1.8 6.0 2.8 0.3
Norway 4.9 5.1 0.5 9.1 4.3 0.1
Belgium 4.8 6.0 0.3 10.9 3.6 -0.5
Germany,FR 4.4 4.1 0.2 10.1 3.2 1.5
Denmark 4.7 6.7 1.1 7.1 5.5 0.2
Sweden 4.4 5.0 1.0 7.7 4.4 0.6

Source: World DevelopmentReport 1981 (see also Annex).

 Table 4: COUNTRYSAMPLE: 1970-79

Average Annual Rates of Growth (in percent) in

labor
Country GDP Capital Force Exports Prices Agriculture

(Y) ) ( (L) (X) (P) (A)

Bangladesh 3.3 14.0 3.3 -4.1 15.8 1.9

Chad -0.2 12.1 1.8 -3.4 7.9 0.7
Ethiopia 1.9 9.9 1.7 -2.7 4.3 0.4
Somalla 3.1 15.6 2.2 5.6 11.3 2.7
Kali 5.0 11.5 2.2 6.7 9.7 4.2
Burma 4.3 8.0 1.5 -0.3 12.1 3.9
Upper Volts -0.1 20.4 1.2 3.1 9.8 -3.3
India 3.4 21.0 1.7 4.6 7.8 2.1
Malawi 6.3 14.8 2.2 4.6 9.1 4.1
Sri Lanka 3.8 17.3 2.0 -3.0 12.3 2.6
Mozambique -2.9 9.7 1.7 -16.6 11.0 -1.8
Sierra Leone 1.6 14.6 1.8 -6.5 11.3 2.3
Pakistan 4.5 13.4 2.6 -0.9 13.9 2.1
Zaire -0.7 33.3 2.1 -1.1 31.4 1.2
Niger 3.7 26.4 2.6 11.7 10.8 -1.5
Central African Rep. 3.3 15.9 1.7 -0.5 9.1 2.4
Yadagascar 0.3 16.9 2.0 -1.0 10.1 0.1
Uganda -0.4 8.0 2.5 -7.0 28.3 0.8
Mauritania 1.8 44.8 2.4 -1.1 10.1 -1.4
Togo 3.6 29.6 1.7 -2.5 10.3 0.3
Indonesia 7.6 20.6 2.5 6.5 20.1 3.6
Sudan 4.3 15.4 2.4 -4.4 6.8 2.7
Kenya 6.5 19.7 2.8 -0.5 11.1 5.4
Ghana -0.1 10.7 2.4 -7.2 32.4 -0.2
Senegal 2.5 16.7 1.9 -0.8 7.6 3.6
Angola -9.2 12.3 1.9 -7.9 21.6 -10.2
Egypt 7.6 22.8 2.0 -2.1 8.0 2.2
Liberia 1.8 20.8 2.6 2.3 9.4 5.0
Zambia 1.5 24.9 2.4 -0.7 6.8 2.3
honduras 3.5 19.4 3.1 4.3 8.4 1.3
Bolivia 5.2 19.0 2.3 -1.6 32.4 3.1
Cameroon 5.4 21.1 1.3 0.5 10.3 3.5
Thailand 7.7 24.8 2.7 12.0 9.5 5.4
Philippines 6.2 25.0 2.4 6.2 13.3 4.9
Congo, PR 2.9 22.2 2.0 8.2 10.9 0.1
Nicaralgua 2.6 15.7 3.3 4.5 12.2 4.2
El Salvador 4.9 23.0 2.8 4.2 10.8 3.2
Nigeria 7.5 32.8 1.7 -0.3 19.0 -0.3
Peru 3.1 15.0 3.0 1.7 26.8 0.1
Morocco) 6.1 19.2 3.0 1.3 7.3 -0.3
Dominican Rep. 7.5 23.7 3.4 5.6 8.4 3.3
Colombia 6.0 19.9 3.6 0.9 21.5 4.8
Guatemala 5.9 13.7 3.0 4.5 10.6 5.1
Syrian AR 9.0 27.0 3.3 7.4 12.7 6.4
Ivory Coast 6.7 21.1 5.0 5.2 13.5 3.4
Ecuadoir 8.3 24.8 3.3 8.2 14.7 0.7
Paraguay 8.3 21.1 3.1 8.4 9.3 6.8
Tunisia 7.6 29.0 3.0 4.8 7.5 5.1
Jamaicai -0.9 21.1 2.2 -6.8 17.4 1.3
Turkey 6.6 23.6 2.2 1.7 24.6 3.7
Malaysia 7.9 22.6 2.6 6.5 7.3 5.0
Panama 3.4 26.4 2.4 0.6 7.4 2.2
Korea 10.3 30.7 2.8 25.7 19.5 4.8
Algeriai 5.8 44.0 3.4 0.0 13.3 0.6
Mexico 5.1 22.2 3.0 10.9 18.3 2.2
Chile 1.9 18.5 1.9 10.7 242.6 3.5
Brazil 8.7 24.2 2.2 7.0 32.4 5.0
Costa Rica 6.0 23.8 3.6 4.4 15.4 2.6
Romania 10.6 35.0 0.6 4.7 0.8 6.2
Uruguay 2.5 16.0 0.1 4.3 64.0 0.2
PortugiLl 4.5 19.7 1.1 -0.3 16.1 -1.5
Argentina 2.5 24.0 1.4 10.7 128.2 2.5
Yugoslavia 5.9 30.8 0.6 4.7 17.8 3.0
Venezuela 5.5 35.2 4.0 -10.3 10.4 3.8
Hong Kong 9.4 22.0 3.8 8.3 7.9 -11.0
Singapore 8.4 34.3 2.7 11.0 5.5 1.7
Greece 4.9 26.6 0.5 12.3 14.1 1.4
Spain 4.4 23.9 1.1 10.8 15.9 2.5
Italy 2.9 19.7 0.7 7.3 15.6 0.8
UK 2.1 18.2 0.3 8.2 13.9 0.8
Finland 2.8 25.5 1.1 3.9 12.9 -0.9
Austria 3.7 28.3 0.8 7.2 6.5 2.0
Japan 5.2 35.0 1.3 9.1 8.2 1.1
Canada 4.2 22.9 1.8 4.6 9.1 2.2
France 3.7 24.4 2.0 7.1 9.6 0.1
Netherlands 3.1 23.5 1.0 5.7 8.3 3.7
USA 3.1 17.4 1.3 6.9 6.9 0.9
Norway 4.8 29.0 0.7 7.2 8.2 2.1
Belgium 3.2 21.7 0.7 5.2 8.1 -0.7
Germany, FR 2.6 24.5 0.7 6.0 5.3 1.5
Sweden 2.0 21.7 0.3 2.6 9.8 -1.3

Source: World Development Report 1981 (see also Annex).

 - 15 -

Table 5: ESTIMATED REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS FOR ANNUAL GRDWTH IN GDP, 1960-70

Equation Country K L X P A Constant R2

1 Developing 0.103** 1.649** 0.32

(3.0) (5.835)

2 0.121** 1.201** 0.135** -0.039 0.48

(3.6) (4.27) (3.4) (1.4)

3 0.082** 0.492 0.130** -0.030 0.632** 0.65

(2.7) (1.7) (3.8) (1.2) (4.2)

4 0.054 0.304 0.132** -0.035 0.628** 0.938 0.66

(1.3) (0.8) (3.9) (1.4) (4.2) (0.9)

5 All 0.148** 1.287** 0.29

(7.8) (6.7)

6 0.122** 1.104** 0.151** -0.038 0.50

(6.1) (6.5) (4.4) (1.6)

7 0.105 0.418 0.146 -0.038 0.556 0.65

(6.2) (2.1) (5.0) (1.8) (4.8)

8 0.083* 0.315 0.145** -0.041 0.547** 0.681 0.66

(2.7) (1.3) (5.1) (2.0) (4.7) (0.8)

Note: This table is based on equation (9) in the text.

Numbers underneath respective coefficients in parenthesis are t-statistics.

Coefficients with significance level above 5% are indicated by "*" and above
1% by a

all-country samples and that a one percentage increase in agricultural growth

yielded a 0.4 percent increase of the "unexplained" growth for the developing

country sample and a 0.3 percent increase for the all country sample,

respectively.
 - 16 -

Table 6: ESTIMATED REGRESSION COEFFICIENT FOR ANNUALUNEXPLAINEDGROWIHIN GDP

2 No. of
Equation Period Country A Constant R2 Countries

1 1960-1970 Developing 0.402** -1.223 0.18 42

(3.0) (2.4)
2 All 0.322** -0.880 0.16 57
(3.0) (2.6)

3 1970-1979 Developing 0.348** -0.693 0.20 69

(4.1) (2.2)
4 All 0.353** -0.693 0.21 82
(4.6) (2.9)

Note: This table is based on equation (10) in the text.

Numbers underneath respective coefficients in parenthesis are t-statistics.

Coefficients with significance level above 5% are indicated by "*" and above
1% by a

Likewise, the empirical estimates obtained for the period 1970-1979

support the general patterns observed for the earlier period 1960-1970 (Table

7). In addition, the estimates for 1970-79 are statistically more efficient

compared with the previous sample. For instance, the inflation rate is found

to be significant at above the five-percent significance level, even though

its negative impact on economic growth in absolute terms becomes smaller. The

estimated coefficients of export growth are nearly twice as large as those

obtained for the 1960-1970 sample, indicating that the marginal contribution

of exports to economic growth appears to be greater in the 1970s. The

contribution of agriculture to the increase in productivity is again found to

be significant and accounts for 20 percent of the "unexplained" variations in

economic growth (Table 6, equations 3 and 4), which is somewhat higher than

the 18 percent estimated for the 1960-1970 period. A one percent increase in
 - 17 -

Table 7: ESTIMATEDREGRESSIONCOEFFICIENTSFOR ANNUALGROWTH

IN CDP, 1970-1979

Equations Country K L X P A Constant R

1 Developing 0.141** 0.626 0.14

(4.0) (1.9)

2 0.103** 0.790** 0.279** -0.022 0.51

(3.4) (3.0) (5.8) (2.4)

3 0.09 5** 0.600** 0.236** -0.023* 0.379** 0.60

(3.2) (2.5) (5.4) (2.9) (4.3)

4 0.098** 0.625* 0.235 -0.022* 0.380** -0.139 0.61

(2.7) (2.0) (5.1) (2.6) (4.2) (0.1)

5 All 0.129** 0.714** 0.14

(5.0) (2.7)

6 0.079** 0.961** 0.263** -0.020* 0.46

(3.3) (4.4) (6.0) (2.5)

7 0.076** 0.730** 0.224** -0.021* 0.378** 0.60

(3.6) (3.6) (5.6) (2.8) (4.6)

8 0.096** 0.829** 0.219** -0.020* 0.380** -0.697 0.61

(2.9) (3.4) (5.3) (2.5) (4.6) (0.8)

Note: This table is based on equation (9) in the text.

Numbers underneath respective coefficients in parenthesis are t-statistics.

Coefficients with significance level above 5% are indicated by "*" and above
1% by a "**".

agricultural growth is estimated to increase productivity by 0.35 percent

during the 197 0s.

When the rate of agricultural growth is introduced as an additional

variable in the production function in a multiple regression context, its

additional contribution to economic growth in terms of the R2 s is reduced

 - 18 -

because of multicollinearity. Furthermore, for the 1960-1970 period, there is

a significant correlation between agricultural growth and labor force growth,

so much so that the marginal contribution of agriculture to economic growth as

measured by the coefficients of agricultural growth are increased

significantly while those of labor force growth are correspondingly reduced.

For the developing country sample, the coefficient of agricultural growth is

increased from 0.40 (equation 1, Table 6) to 0.63 (equation 4, Table 5), while

that of labor force growth is reduced from 1.20 to 0.49 after the introduction

of agricultural growth (A) . But for the 1970-1979 period, however, the

regression coefficients remain largely the same (0.79 to 0.60) after the

addition of A. The estimated elasticity of agricultural growth is increased

only slightly from 0.35 to 0.38 for the developing country sample and shows

little change for the all country sample (Table 7). Thus the marginal

contribution of agriculture to productivity growth can be more confidently

delineated from other influences during this period. The estimated equation

for the developJing country sample is then used for a "sources" of economic

growth analysis discussed below.

Using the estimated regressions on economic growth, the average rate

of economic growth during a period can be decomposed according to the

"sources" of economic growth. To estimate the contributions made by each

source of growth, a constant term should be inserted into the equation, which

has so far been suppressed, in order to capture the composite effect on

productivity changes of all other factors omitted from the equation. The

empirical evidence obtained here, however, does not suggest that the constant

term is statistically significant (compare equation 3 with equation 4 in Table

7, for instance). Thus the effect of the excluded variables -- such as

 - 19 -

education, health, and nutrition level of the work force, etc. -- on

productivitychanges may have already been captured by the variables, i.e.,

exports, agriculture, and inflation included in the regression. For the

developing countries sample of the 1970-1979period, during which the average

rate of growth is 4.4 percent, the sources-of-growthdecompositionindicates

that capital and labor jointly contributeto about 81 percent of the growth in

total output with the former contributing 48 percent and the latter 33

percent. The remaining 19 percent of the output growth is explained by the

productivity change which in turn is contributed by agricultural growth,

export growth, and inflation (Table 8)1/

It is worth noting that for the developing countries, the

contributionof agricultural growth to productivitygrowth (0.8 percent) is

greater than that of export growth (0.6 percent). Agriculture'scontributing

share in total productivitygrowth (17 percent) is also greater than that of

export growth (14 percent). Finally, one percentageincreasein the inflation

rate is estimated to have reduced output growth by 0.4 percent due to its

detrimentaleffect on productivitygrowth.

1/ Since it is the property of the ordinary least squares method that the
average value of the dependent variable in the sample period is exactly
equal to the average of the predicted value of the dependentvariable, the
sample average of the dependent variable can be exactly decomposed
according to the contributingvariables includedin the regression. As the
R2 indicates, the unexplained variation in the dependent variable is
large. Therefore, the chances are high that some variables with
explanatorypower might have been excluded. Hence, this decompositionis
meaningful only insofar as it evaluates the relative contributionmade by
each includedexplanatoryvariable.
 - 20 -

Table 8: SOURCES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH, 1970-1979

Rate of Growth (%) Share (%) Mean Value (%)

Factors of production:
of which: 3.5 81

Capital 2.1 48 21.6 b/

Labor 1.4 33 2.3

Productivitychange:
of which: 0.9 19

Export 0.6 14 2.7

Inflation -0.4 -9 19.1
Agriculture 0.8 17 2.0
Other a/ -0.1 -3

Total (GDP) 4.4 100

Calculationis based on equation 4 in Table 7.

a/ Reflectingthe constant term.

b/ Investmentas a proportionof GDP.

IV. Summary and Conclusion

Using cross section data of the 1960s and the 1970s, this paper has

shown that intercountry variation in agricultural growth is a significant

determinant of intercountry variation in industrial growth. It has also

demonstrated empirically that agricultural growth induces productivity

increases and, therefore, facilitiatesoverall economic growth. As argued in

the paper, this result may stem from the fact that rapid agriculturalgrowth

raises the efficiency of resource (capital and labor) transfers between the

agricultural and the non-agricultural sectors resulting in an increase in

overall productivity. Also rapid agriculturalgrowth itself may reflect high

 - 21 -

agriculturalproductivity. The paper also confirms earlier findings on the

positive contributionof export growth to the increase of productivity. In

addition, it shows that inflationhas the oppositeeffect on productivity.

The implication of the main thrust of this paper for the long term

development strategyof low income LDCs is clear: an appropriateagricultural

development strategy should be formulated to accelerate their agricultural

growth rates. While agricultureis inevitablya "decliningindustry" from the

point of view of its share in total output in the course of long-term

development,it should not be excessively squeezed for resources to support

non-agricultural
activitiesand therefore prematurely"abandoned".

While cross section analysis serves to uncover the common variables

that determine the complex growth processes underlying individual countries

and to summarize their "average" or "normal" experienceand thus a point of

reference for analyzing individual country performance, it should be

supplemented by detailed country studies to examine country specific

factors. Given the often unique conditions surrounding developing country

agriculture, the examination of the contributionof agriculture to economic

growth through the use of cross section data as was done in this paper should

clearly not be exempted from these remarks.

 - 22 -

REFERENCES

Balassa, Bela, "Exports and Economic Growth: Further Evidence," Journal of

Development Economics, Vol. 5, No. 2, June 1978, pp. 181-189.

Chenery, H. and L. Taylor, "Development Patterns: Among Countries and Over

Time", Rev. Econ. Statistics, 50:391-416, November 1968.

Chenery, H. and M. Syrquin, Patterns of Development, 1950-1970, Oxford

University Press, 1975.

Hayami, Y. and V. W. Rutton, Agricultural Development: An International

Perspective, Johns Hopkins Press, 1971.

Johnston, Bruce F and Peter Kilby, Agriculture and Structural

Transformation: Strategies for Late Developing Countries, New York,
Oxford University Press, 1975.

Johnston, Bruce F. and J. W. Mellor, "The Role of Agriculture in Economic

Development", American Economic Review, 51(4), (September 1961), 566-
593.

Krueger, Anne 0., Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development:

Liberalization Attempts and Consequences (Ballinger, Cambridge, MA.,
1975.

Michaely, Michael. "Exports and Growth: An Empirical Investigation," Journal

of Development Economics, Vol. 4, No. 1, March 1977, pp. 49-53.

Michalopoulos, Constantine and Keith Jay. Growth of Exports and Income in the
Developing World: A Neoclassical View, A.I.D. Discussion Paper No. 28,
Washington, D.C., November 1973.

Robinson, Sherman. "Sources of Growth in Less Developed Countries," Quarterly

Journal of Economics, Vol. 85, No. 3, August 1971, pp. 391-408.

Selowsky, Marcelo, "On the Measurement of Education-s Contribution to Growth,"

Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. LXXXIII, August 1969, pp. 449-63.

Tsing, S.C., "Theories of Inflation in Less Developed Countries", paper

prepared for the conference on Inflation in East Asian Countries,
Taipei, Ta:Lwan, 20-22 May 1983.

World Bank, Accelerated Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Agenda for

Action, Washington, D.C., 1981.

World Bank, World Development Report 1982.

 - 23 -

ANNEX

DATA SOURCES

The data used in the paper are mostly obtained from world development

indicators annex of the World Development Report 1981 published by the World

Bank: 1979 GNP per capita in dollars (YN), average annual rate of inflation

(P) are from Table 1 of the annex (pp. 134-135); the average annual growth

rate of GDP (Y) , agriculture (A) , industry (I) are from Table 2 (pp. 136-

137); the average annual growth rate of merchandise export is from Table 8

(pp. 148-149). The average investment rate (K) for the period and the 1970

GNP per capita are obtained from Economic and Social Data Division of the

World Bank. The average annual growth rate of labor force (L) , is derived

from Social Indicators Data Sheets for individual countries compiled by the

Economic and Social Data Division as of May 1982.

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World Bank Staff Working Paper No. and discusses the implications for rural: I'exp&ience Africaine.
386. April 1980.72pages(including donor support of other small-scale Economica.1977.
3 annexes). more
irrigation programs andinvolving ISBN2- 7178-0006-9, 39 francs.
J annexes). generally for programs
StockNo. WP-0386.$3.00. village-level work.
WorldBank Staff WorkingPaper
No. 528.July,1982.v + 69 pages
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ISBN0-8213-0051-2. $3.00.
Land Reform and they involve a variety of invest- Rethinking Artisanal Fish-
Examines the characteristics of land ments. The need for monitoring and eries Development: Western
reform, its implications for thie evaluatingthem during implementa- Concepts, Asian Experiences
economies of developing countries, but effective systems have not Donald K.Emmerson
and the major policy options open to btefciesseshv o
the World Bank in this oield t heretofore been formulated. The con- World Bank Staff Working Paper No.
cepts of monitoring and evaluation 423. October 1980. x - 97 pages
A World Bank Paper. May1975. 73 are differentiated and issues that includingreferences).
pages (including 2 annexes). need to be considered in designing
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specific projects are outlined,
Stock
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management. Elaborates on such Discusses strategy designed to extend
technical issues as selection of indica- the benefits of development to the
Land Tenure Systems and tors, selection of survey methodology rural poor and outlines the World
Social Implications of data analysis, and presentation. It is Eiank'splans for increasing its assis-
Forestry Developmenlt directed primarily to those working tance in this sector.
Programs with specific projects and will be use- Sector Policy Paper. February 1975, 89
Michael M.Cernea ful to projecft apprang and evaaua- pages (including 14 annexes). English,
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(f.0 aebc.Problems
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Rural Development: Lessons paperback. robert
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Guido Deboeck and Bill Kinsey Monitoring Rural Develop- World 8ank Staff Working Paper io.
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WorldBankStaff WorkingPaperIYo. and Assessment style rural development projects,
taff orkin Pape No.
WorldBank Approaches includJingsome of the things that hap-
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of Agriculture and Rural Prices, Taxes, and Subsidies ISBN0-8213-0028-8. $3.00.

Development Projects in Pakistan Agriculture,
Dennis J. Casley 1960-1976 Sociocultural Aspects of
and Denis A. Lury Carl Gotsch and Gilbert Brown Developing Small-Scale
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h o oe Poor
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 Some Aspects of Wheat and Credit and Sharecropping in Agrarian
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REPRINTS J. Price Gittinger
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 The Design of Development Economic Development Pro-
Jan Tinbergen Jects and Their Appraisal:
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policy to further development objec- the Experience of the
tives and ouUines methods to World Bank
stimulate private Investments. John A. iKing
The Johns Hlopkins Uniuersity Press, The English-language edition is
1958; 6th printing, 1966. 108 pages out of print.
(Including 4 annexes, index). french: Projets de developpement
LC 58-9458. ISBN 0-8018-0633-X, &onomique et leur evaluation. Dunod
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An Agenda for Action Development Strategies In 99 francs.
In the fall of 1979, the Afrfcan Gover- Semi-Industrial Economies Spanish:La evaluacion de proyectors de
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memorandum to the Bank's president 1970. 545 pages (including indexes).
expressing their alarm at the dim Provides an analysis of development 800 pesetas.
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theeconomic developmene problems applied in six semi-industrial develop- Human Resources
f thepr cuntgram
helping thm .roThis ing economies-Argentina, Norman iicks, assisted by
te Lagos
repot, onuilingon
report building the Plan of
LgosPla of Colombia,
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indicate the Jahangir Boroumand
Action, is the response to that effects of these systems on the alloca- World Bank Staff Working Paper Nlo.
request. tion of resources. intemational trade, 408. July 1980. iu + 36 pages (includ-
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Africa should double in real terms to
bring about renewed African develop- Eastern and Southern The Extent of Poverty in
ment and growth in the 1980s. The Latin America
report's agenda for action is general; Africa: Past Trends and Oscar Altimir
it indicates broad policy and program Future Prospects This work originated in a research
directions, overall priorities for Ravi Gulhati project for the measurement and
action, and key areas for donor atten-
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1981; 2nd printing 1982.198 pages absolute poverty for'ten Latin
(including statistical annex, bibliogra- American countries and for the region
phy). as a whole in the 1970s.
French: Le d6veloppement accelere en World Bank Staff Working PaperNo.
afrique au sud du Sahara: programme 522. 1982. 117 pages.
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First Things First: Meeting The lungarian Economic Levels of Poverty: Policy
Basic Human Needs in the Reform, 1968-81 and Change
Developing Countries Bela Balassa Amartya Sen
Paul Streeten, with Reviews the Hungarian experience WorldBankStaff WorkingPaperNo.
Shahid Javed Burki, with the economic reform introduced 401.July 1980.91pages(including
Mahbub ul iiaq, In 1968 and provides a short descrip- references).
Norman Hicks, tion of the antecedents of the reform.
and Frances Stewart Analyzes specific reform measures Stock Nlo. WP-0401.$3.00.
conceming agriculture. decisionmak-
The basic needs approach to ing by industrial filrms, price
economic development Is one way of determination, the exchange rate. Models of Growth and
helping the poor emerge from their export subsidies, import protection, Distribution for Brazil
poverty. It enables them to eam or and Investment decisions and Indi- Lance Taylor, Edmar L. Bacha,
obtain the necessities for life-nutri- cates their effects on the economy. Eliana Cardoso,
tion, housing, water and sanitation, Also examines the economic effects
education, and health-and thus to of tendencies toward recentralization and Frank J. Lysy
Increase their productivity. In the 1970s, as well as recent policy Explores the Brazilian experience
This book answers the critics of the measures aimed at reversing these from the point of view of political
basic needs approach, views this tendencies. economy and computable general
approach as a logical step in the WorldBankStaff WorkingPaperNo. equilibrium Income distribution
evolution of economic analysis and Stf okn ae omodels.
development policy, and presents a 506. February1982. 31 pages (includ-
clearsighted interpretation of the ing references). OxfordUniversityPress,1980.
issues. Based on the actual StockMo. WP-0506.$3.00. 368 pages(including references,
experience of various countrIes- appendIxes,index).
their successes and failures-the LC 80-13786. ISBN 0-19-520206-6,
book Is a distillation of World Bank Implementing Programs of $27.50hardcover;15BN0-19-520207-4,
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tlons of meeting basic needs. It also
discusses the presumed conflict be- Edited by Peter T. Knight,
tween economic growth and basic prepared by Nat J. Colletta,
needs, the relation between the Nlew Jacob Meerrnan, and others.
International Economic Order and
basic needs, and the relation be- World Bank Staff Working PaperNo.
tween human rights and basic needs. 403. July 1980. iv + 372 pages
OxfordUniversityPress,1981;2nd (including references).
paperbackprinting, 1982.224 pages StockNo. WP-0403.$15.00.
(including appendix,bibliography,
index). International Technology
LC81-16836,ISBN0-19-520-368-2. Transfer: Issues and
$18.95hardcoverISBN0-19-520-369-0, Policy Options
$7.95paperback. Frances Stewart
WorldBank Staff WorkingPaperNo.
344. July 1979.xii + 166pages
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 Four chapters provide an overview of Structural Change and NEW
alternative strategies; a detailed look Development Policy
at health, education, nutrition, and Hollis Chenery Tribal Peoplesand
fertility; lessons from existing pro-
grams; and an examination of A retrospective look at Chenerys Economic Development:
broader issues In planning. thought and writing over the past two Human Ecologic
OxfordUnidersityPress.1982.96 pages decades and an extensionof his work Considerations
Oxforudin stniestityl apress.198.
96pgs In Redistributionwith Growth and Robert Goodland
(including statisticalappendix). Patternsof Development Developsa
LC82-2153.ISBN0-19-520389-5, $7.95 set of techniquesfor analyzingstruc. At the current time, approximately
paperback. tural changesand applies them to 200 million tribal people live in all
some major problems of developing regions of the world and number
countries today. among the poorest of the poor.This
paper describesthe problems associ-
NEW OxfordUniversityPress,1979;2nd ated with the developmentprocessas
paperbackprinting, 1982.544 pages it affects tribal peoples;it outlines the
Reforming the Neew (Including references,
index), requisitesfor meeting the human
Economic Mechanism LC79-18026.ISBN0-19-520094-2, ecologic needsof tribal peoples;and
in Hungary $34.50hardcover;ISBN0-19-520095-0 presentsgeneral principles that are
Bela Balassa Bela Balassa $12-95paperback.
$12.95paperback.
~~~~~~designed
to assist the Banks staff and
project designersin incorporating
Evaluatesthe reform measurestaken French:Changement desstructureset appropriate proceduresto ensure the
in 1980and 1981(pricesetting, the politique de d6veloppement. survival of tribal peoplesand to assist
exchangerate and protectlon, wage Economica,1981. with their development.
determination and personalincomes, ISBN2-7178-0404-8,80francs. May1982,vii + 111pages(including 7
Investmentdecisions,and the
organizationalstructure) that aim at Spanish:Cambioestructuraly politica annexes,bibliography).
the further developmentof the de desarrollo.EditorialTecnos,1980. ISBN0-8213-0010-5.$5.00.
HungarianlNewEconomicMecha- ISBN84-309-0845-51000pesetas.
nism, introduced on January 1, 1968.
Tourism-Passport The Tropics and Economic
WorldBankStaff WorkingPaperNo. to Development: A Provocative
ISBI 0-8213-0048-2.$3.00. Development? Perspectives Inquiry into the Poverty
on the Social and Cultural of Nations
Effects of Tourism in Andrew M. Kamarck
NEW Developing Countries Examinesmajor characteristicsof the
Emanuel de Kadt, editor tropical climates that are significant
Social Infrastructu[re and The flrst serious effort at dealing with to economic development.
Services in Zimbabwe the effects of tourism developmentin TheJohns HopkinsUniversityPress,
Rashid Faruqee a broad sense, concentratingon 1976:2nd printing. 1979.128 pages
The black
majority goveruqeent of social and cultural questions. (including maps,bibliography,index).
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Zimbabwe,coming to powerafter a A joint WorldBank-Unescostudy. LC76-17242. ISBN0-8018-1891-5,
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Twenty-flve Years of
Economic Development,
1950 to 1975
David Morawetz
A broad assessment of development
efforts shows that, although the
developing countries have been
Patterns of Development, Malnourished People: Shelter
1950-1970 A Policy View Anthony A. Churchill
Hollis Chenery Alan Berg Defines the elements that constitute
and Moises Syrquin Discusses the importance of ade- shelter; discussesthe difficulties
A comprehensiveinterpretationof the quate nutrition as an objective,as encounteredin developing shelter
structural changesthat accompany well as a means of economicdevelop- programs for the poor; estimatesor-
the growth of developing countries, ment. Outlines the many facetsof the ders of magnitude of shelter needs
using cross-sectionand time-series nutrition problem and shows how for the next twentyyears;and pro-
analysisto study the stability of efforts to improve nutrition can help posesa strategy for meeting those
observedpatternsand the nature alleviate much of the human and needs.
of time trends. economicwaste in the developing September 1980.39 pages.English,
OxfordUniversityPress,1975;3rd world. French,and Spanish.
paperback printing, 1980. 250 pages June 1981. 108 pages (including StockNlos.BN1-8002-E, BN-8002-F,
(including technical appendix, statisti- 6 appendixes, notes).English. French BN-8002-S. $3.00paperback.
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LC74-29172. 1SBN 0-19-920075-0, Stock IYos.BN-8104-E,BN-8104-f, Water Supply and
$19.95 hardcover;ISBN 0-19-920076-9, Bll-8104-5. $5.00. Wate Sppl
$8.95 paperback. Waste Disposal
Spanish. Laestructuradel crecimiento Meeting Basic Needs: Discusseisthesneedsin water supply

1950-1970.
EdItorial
ditria Teconos,
195-190. Teono, 1978.
178. An Overiew
Mahbub ul H-aq and and
cancewaste disposal andinitsthe
to development signift-
context
ISBN 615pesetas.
84-309-0741-6, Shahid Javed Burki of the InternationalDrinking Water
Supplyand Sanitation Decade.-
Presentsa summary of the main flnd- Examinesthe Bank'spast role in
Poverty and Basic rNeeds Ings of studies undertaken in the improving water supply and waste
WorldBankas part of a program for disposal facilities in developing
Series reducingabsolute povertyand meet- countries and drawsconclusions
A series of booklets preparedby the Ing basic needs. for the future.
staff of the World Bankon the subject
of basic needs.The series includes September1980. 28 pages (Including September1980. 46 pages. English,
generalstudies that explorethe con- 2 annexes).English,French,Spanish, French,Spanish,and Arabic.
cept of basic needs,country case Japanese,and Arabic. StockIYos. BNl-8003-E,
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Brazil $3.00 paperback.
Peter T. night and Poverty and the Develop-
Ricardo J. Moran ment of Hluman Resources:
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more detailed publication, Brazil: Willem BussinK David Davies,
HumanResources Special Report (see
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December1981. 98 pages (including WorldBank Staff WorkingPaperNIo.
statistical appendix, map). English. 406. July 1980. ill + 197 pages
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MEW

Poverty and Human

Development
Paul Isenman and others
Sinceeconomic growth alone has not
reducedabsolute poverty,It has been
necessaryto consider other
strategies. The strategy examined In
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epitomizesthe idea that poor people
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remarkably successful in achieving World DevelopmentReport 1982 RzmERI
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LC 77-17243. ISBNt0-8018-2134-7, World Develcpment Report 1980 BrazilianSocioeconomicDevelopment:
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ISBN12- 7178-0038-7, 26 francs. change, and country deuelopment IndigenousAnthropologistsand
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