SLIDE 1:

FROM LEFT TO RIGHT : Picture of British Foreign Secretary William Hague,

German Minister of Foreign Affairs Guido Westerwelle, EU High
Commissioner Catherine Ashton, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif,
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, US Secretary of State John Kerry, Russian
Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov, and French Foreign Minister Laurent
Fabius at a news conference at the conclusion of the negotiations.
Nov 2013 in Geneva

SLIDE 3:

- The Islamic republic of Iran is located in the Middle East. It is surrounded by

Turkey, Iraq, Armenia and Azerbaijan on the west, and Afghanistan,
Pakistan and Turkmenistan on the east.

- Population : 82 millions of inhabitants

- Capital: Teheran
- 9% of global oil and gas reserves
- As you may know, the main religion in the country is Islam, and it affects
strongly the political side, as it is considered as a “Islamic republic”, this
influence isn’t accepted by all, a part of the population (especially the youth)
is disconnected from it, and want a more liberal state.

- Current president : Hassan Rohani

- Supreme chief : Ali Khamenei (he was designated by of “assembly of expert”

and with the support of the president of the Iranian assembly)

He is one of the richest man in the world, not officially, but behind the scene it is
reported that he has approximately 95 billions of dollars, he is considered as a tyrant,
last year he implemented a law that makes it illegal to criticize him.

- The supreme chief is above the president, he has the hand on the outlines of
the policy of the country, is military power is strong, he is the chief of army
and above all, he can remove the president.
- Regarding the president, he implements and put into practice the decision of
the supreme chief.

IRAN AND THE NUCLEAR POWER IN THE PAST

- Iran has a moderately advanced nuclear program, that began in the 50’s,
ironically, the Iranian nuclear program was initially supported by the US, who
provided them materials supports.

- Iran was initially into a good faith and signed with 100 other countries the
partial test ban treaty, which forbid all test of nuclear program except for
those underground.
 - Later they signed the “ Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons”
which prevent the spread of nuclear weapons to promote the cooperation in
the peaceful uses of nuclear energy”.

Si le prof demande ce que c’est : 3 pillars

1. non-proliferation,
2. disarmament, and
3. the right to peacefully use nuclear technology

- Following the Iranian Revolution of the middle-to-late 1970’s, the Iranian

nuclear program was temporarily ‘frozen’.

- The Iranian Revolution and the seizure of the U.S. embassy in Tehran result in
a severing of U.S.-Iranian ties and damages Iran’s relationship with the West.
Iranian nuclear projects are halted.

- At the beginning of the 80’s the nuclear program has been reestablished and
during the following two decades, Iran’s nuclear program came under strict
analysis by the United States.

- Since the mid-80’s, Iranian intention aren’t considered as they were

previsouly, they are frequently suspected of developing nuclear weapons as
reported by the National intelligence Council, these accusations are supported
by the CIA, and 10 years later U.s Intelligence report stated that if Iran receive
aid from foreign country, the country should be able to develop nuclear
weapons within the next years.

- During the 2000s, the revival of the Iranian nuclear program caused friction with
Western countries.
- But the deciding factor will be the election on June 14, 2013 of Hassan Rohani, who
said he was ready for "serious negotiations".

The Iranian agreement rests on three pillars:

Signed in Vienna on
The agreement costs 9.2 million euros annually

 limiting Iran's nuclear program for at least a decade;

 lifting of international sanctions against Iran;
 strengthening controls.
The principle is to limit the number of places to be inspected for controls, and, at the same
time, to limit the material to be inspected by imposing ceilings. This material is uranium and
plutonium; there is talk of limiting the enrichment of the former and the production of the
latter. To do this, the Arak heavy water plant will be modified so as not to have the capacity
to produce plutonium for military purposes.

In return, the economic sanctions against Iran are gradually being lifted, in particular the
assets frozen abroad which represent nearly 150 billion dollars (around 135 billion euros).
Iran directly benefited from the first lifting of sanctions in January 2016, for example seeing
its growth take off.

An important nuance compared to the negotiations of the 2003-2005 era: it is no longer a

question of dismantling the Iranian nuclear program, but rather of preventing the
clandestine development of a military nuclear program.

The four key points of the Iranian nuclear deal:

Two thirds less centrifuges

Iran has agreed to reduce by two thirds the number of its centrifuges, the machines used to
transform uranium which, enriched at 90%, is used to make a bomb. Tehran will thus keep
6,104 centrifuges in operation (compared to 19,000 currently). Of these 6,104, only 5,060
will have the right to produce enriched uranium for ten years. They will be first generation
centrifuges.

Tehran will also reduce its stock of low enriched uranium (LEU) from 10,000 kg to 300 kg
enriched to 3.67% for fifteen years and has agreed not to enrich uranium to more than
3.67% during less the same period. Surplus material will be stored under the supervision of
the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and may only be used for replacements.

No new enrichment sites

Tehran has agreed not to build new uranium enrichment facilities for fifteen years. With
regard to the existing sites, Iran has agreed to no longer enrich uranium for the same period
in the Fordo site, buried under the mountain and therefore impossible to destroy by military
action. The site will remain open but will not enrich uranium, while approximately two-thirds
of Fordo's centrifuges will be removed from the site.

Natanz, the main Iranian enrichment facility - with some 17,000 first-generation IR-1
centrifuges, a thousand faster IR-2Ms and a capacity to accommodate a total of 50,000 - will
be the only facility enrichment of the country, according to the parameters of the
agreement. It will require only 5,060 first generation IR-1 centrifuges for ten years. The IR-
2M centrifuges will be removed and placed under IAEA control.

The heart of the heavy water reactor, which could have produced plutonium, will be
destroyed or will be moved outside Iranian territory. The reactor will be rebuilt to limit itself
to research and production of medical radioisotopes, without production of plutonium with
military capacity. Finally, the fuel used will be sent abroad throughout the life of the reactor.
Tehran has committed not to build a new heavy water reactor for fifteen years.
Under IAEA control
The IAEA will be responsible for regularly monitoring all Iranian nuclear sites. Its inspectors
will be able to access uranium mines and the places where Iran produces yellowcake (a
concentrate of uranium) for twenty-five years.

Sanctions lifted if Iran delivers on its commitments

On the very delicate issue of the lifting of sanctions, the agreement provides that unilateral
American and European measures will be suspended as soon as the fulfillment of its
commitments by Iran has been certified by the IAEA. They will be reinstated if the
agreement is not applied.

Any final agreement will finally have to be endorsed by the UN Security Council, which has
itself voted several sets of sanctions against the country since 2006.

WHAT WILL BE THE FUTURE?

AND NOW WE’RE GOING TO SEE WHAT KIND OF FUTUR IS RESERVED FOR IRAN;

First of all after the signature of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, there has been
consequences and the main ones are economic and diplomatic consequences.

Economic:
- The lifting of sanctions has benefited the Iranian economy. Being a major oil producer
(member of OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and the world's
second largest gas reserve, was able to export its raw materials, particularly to the European
Union.
- There was also an increase of foreign investment in Iran, as well as trade partnerships. For
example, the PSA group announced in 2016 the creation of a joint venture with the car
manufacturer Iran Khodro to manufacture Peugeot cars in Iran. Since a lot of jobs were
created

Diplomatic:
- The agreement marks the improvement of Iran’s diplomatic relations with other big
countries.
- For example the United States, which had cut off all contact since the hostage crisis of 1979
during the Iranian revolution
- And another example, the British embassy in Tehran reopened almost four years after it was
closed after protesters attacked the embassy in 2011.

However, In may 2018, after criticizing the Nuclear deal during his presidency campaign, the
newest American President Donald Trump announced that the USA was withdrawing from
the Vienna Agreement and threatened Iran if the country decided to revive its nuclear
program.
A DECISION led to a numerous of consequences
- Obviously, the Iran and USA relationship has become worse
- The economy is not doing well -- many investors have withdrawn from iran they lost a lot of
jobs according to International Monetary fund, 30% of young people are unemployed.
- There were also a lot of store bankruptcies and closings of factories
- Many French, german and British companies have been obliged to close their businesses.FOR
EXAMPLE PSA

- After a few days of the announcement of the American withdrawal, Washington published
12 conditions that Iran must respect in order to resign the agreement. To enumerate a few
Thoses conditions includes the obligation of Iran to close its eavy water reactor, to release all
us citizens detained on spurious charges, to withdraw all forces in Syria and stop its threats
against Israel.

- Nonetheless, in disagreement with the USA France, Germany, UK, China, Russia and Iran
maintained the deal until today. And its future is really uncertain for various reasons
- Since the US withdrawal, both countries displayed a lot of demonstration of military power.
- The latest US response was to kill Iranian General Quassem Soleimani whose picture you can
see here
- Iran announced that the country will no longer limits its uranium enrichment and the
European response was to advise Iran to not retaliate but to open new negotiations
-
- Iran’s economy is doing even worse; their exportation of oil
- All of this shows that the agreement is at a very high risk.
- But there is still some hope since Iran is still cooperating with
IAEA inspectors
o