This week:

In this week’s newsletter we discuss Bitcoin/Dollar’s $20000 breakdown.

We also discuss Ethereum/Dollar’s retest of its $1100 range low.

For altcoins, we look at contagion-stricken Solana/Dollar and the narratively-

favoured dYdX/Dollar.

We conclude with an overview of legacy markets as the Dollar is nearing support as

the S&P 500 is moving towards resistance.

https://coinmarketcap.com/coins/views/all/
Table of Contents
1. Bitcoin Breaks Down from $20000 Range

2. Ethereum Holds $1100 Range Low

3. Solana Sinks to $15

4. dYdX Reaches Range High

5. Legacy Strength Softens Crypto Weakness - Now at Crossroads

Dear reader,

Thank you for subscribing to TechnicalRoundup. We are grateful for your readership
and hope that you stay with us for many future issues.

The premise behind this newsletter is simple: you get all your high time frame charts
for the most important digital assets in one place. Same place, same time, every
week.

Whether you are a short-term trader looking for a bias heading into the week, or a
cautious investor trying to get a sense for this new asset class, we are confident that
there is something you will find valuable in the coming pages.

We are not a signals service. That much is obvious. What we can offer you, however,
is something better: a logical framework, a consistent method, and robust analysis.
Every week.

We are not perfect. We will get things wrong. When we do, you will know because we
will discuss them thoroughly. If the markets are unclear or uninteresting, we will not
force out analysis that we do not believe to be compelling. Whilst we can not promise
perfection, we will do our utmost to be honest and transparent.

Enough text, you must want to see some charts at this point!

We hope you enjoy TechnicalRoundup.

If for any reason you do not, or have feedback for us of any kind, it will be graciously
received via email at letters@technicalroundup.com.
1. Bitcoin Breaks Down from
$20000 Range

https://www.tradingview.com/x/EcuWXol2/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/JL3VnNC0/
Bitcoin/Dollar broke down from its multi-month range at $20000 following the
news of FTX’s insolvency.

The extent of the fallout is still unclear. We simply do not know the degree of
contagion and the longer-term ramifications of this meltdown. Aside from the
short-term liquidity impact, there are medium and long-term regulatory and
investigative implications to this event. As we’ve argued before, the
CeFi/OTC/lending/private pools of capital section of crypto is very opaque, so it’s
difficult to weigh the impact of this fallout for the time being.

We’re left with technicals, which are thankfully more clear.

The market was ranging at $20000 for months. The range broke down. That’s
bearish.

When a large range breaks down, there are two main options available if looking to
position for strength.

First, if the breakdown gets invalidated, the likelihood of reversal is high.

Technically, this would mean high time frame acceptance (daily and/or weekly) back
above $19000.

Second, if the breakdown doesn’t get invalidated and follows through, this creates
the opportunity to do business at more distant and fresh levels of support. In this
case, the levels would be in the range of $12000-$13900, which is a combination of
monthly and weekly structure.

In other words, the market just broke down from a level that really matters, and the
clearer opportunities are a bit higher, or a bit lower.
2. Ethereum Holds $1100 Range
Low

https://www.tradingview.com/x/zAewCyRY/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/hlr1tC4j/
Ethereum/Dollar did not break down from its $1100 range low.

Structurally speaking, Ethereum/Dollar pulled back to weekly support at

$1130-$1200.

The case for swing trading that structure is less clear given there is resistance
immediately overhead at $1280-$1330.

This makes for a rather narrow trading range between weekly levels.

It also doesn’t help that structurally-speaking, Bitcoin/Dollar is somewhat in

freefall.

In terms of positioning for strength, a couple of options come to mind.

First, a momentum trade through $1280-$1330 weekly resistance may have some
upside, even if it’s just a counter-trend bounce.

Second, given its sporadic bouts of relative strength, buying Ethereum/Dollar when
Bitcoin/Dollar meets one of our bullish criteria (thus having confluence between the
two) is not the worst idea.

Needless to say, if the arse falls out of this thing and the $1100 range low folds, we’ll
have to zoom out a bit and map triple digit levels of support.

For the time being, broadly speaking, a narrow $1200-$1400 range in

Ethereum/Dollar is the name of the game as the market waits with bated breath for
clarity from Bitcoin/Dollar (and all the headlines).
3. Solana Sinks to $15

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Vs5W5zeq/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/bABYNfrk/
Solana has reached weekly structure in the $15 area.

Like the rest of the market, the multi-month range around the $30 handle was lost,
and the market halved pretty quickly.

Solana is also a contagion coin.

Specifically, it was one of the largest holdings of the now bankrupt Alameda
Research.

This adds an additional supply overhang as well as selling pressure to the ecosystem
more broadly as speculators may not want association with the SBF empire.

While it is true that Chapter 11 bankruptcy confers a freeze on all claims by creditors
so that the existing assets can be sorted in the most orderly fashion possible, there’s
additional speculation that funds and market participants with exposure to this
ecosystem and money stuck in FTX (large crossover between those two) have sold
their liquid assets to offset that exposure.

Or, put colloquially, SBF stuff is rekt, and for a lot of people, Solana falls under the
category of SBF stuff.

For these reasons, Solana isn’t terribly high on our list of stuff to buy if we want
exposure to crypto upside.

Purely technically speaking, if there’s strength above $15 on a high time frame basis,
a larger mean reversion higher may be available. But that would be a short-term
technical trade at most.

$15 is the pivot worth watching for this week.

Technicals aside, we like a good comeback story. We hope that Solana can shake off
its reputation as a venture capital playground and build something cool.
4. dYdX Reaches Range High

https://www.tradingview.com/x/QWVIeW11/

dYdX has reached its weekly range high at $2.5.

Winners this week have been far and few between, but given that a large centralised
exchange failed, projects that allow self-custodial trading and holding (including
tokens associated with wallets) have been doing well.

Despite a PR blunder a few months ago, dYdX caught a bid among all the centralised
exchange outflows.

The premise here is simple: if the market isn’t going to shit itself, this thing will
likely break out and head towards the next level of resistance at $3.6-$3.9.

There’s some decent space there for a momentum trade.

At the time of writing, the market is at resistance, so that setup is unavailable.

But it’s one to have on your watchlist should we see a recovery in the coming weeks.

In general, in terms of future cycle narratives, we expect projects that offer

centralised exchange functionality without the custody issues to perform well as
participants become forcibly acquainted with trading on-chain.
5. Legacy Strength Softens Crypto
Weakness - Now at Crossroads

https://www.tradingview.com/x/lfnf05LT/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/NOaZPIhz/
Risk assets in the legacy world have been doing well.

Shame we can’t join them given our industry imploded.

The strength is bittersweet. Under normal circumstances, Bitcoin/Dollar would

probably be around its $25000 range high. Alas, we have no such luxury.

But that doesn’t mean legacy strength is irrelevant.

As DonAlt speculated on Twitter earlier, the S&P 500 strength might be one of the
reasons that crypto prices aren’t a lot lower than they are at the time of writing.

Perhaps there are a few surviving correlation bots and macro traders putting on
those trades.

In any case, legacy strength has been enough to prop us up a bit, but it’s equally
likely that legacy weakness spills over into crypto.

The big risk proxies are now at an important juncture.

Much of the upside was led by USD weakness amid soft inflation prints, which
translated to S&P 500 strength.

Now, at the time of writing, USD is reaching support and S&P 500 is approaching an
area of resistance.

The former has pulled back to an area of support around the 106 handle, while the
latter is reaching its range midpoint around the 4000 handle.

For crypto to stay afloat, the preferred view is USD downside continuation towards
100-102 and S&P 500 continuation through 4000.

If the opposite is true, crypto will likely be adversely affected.

We don’t have a clear legacy read at this juncture, but it’s still worth paying
attention to macro given that relative strength and weakness still appear to affect
our markets.