0188 4999 Rica 34 01 007121
0188 4999 Rica 34 01 007121
https://doi.org/10.20937/ATM.52664
Analysis and selection of optimal sites for wind farms: case study,
region north of Mexico
1
Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Circuito de la investigación Científica s/n, Ciudad
Universitaria, 04510 Ciudad de México, México
*Corresponding author: tglez@geofisica.unam.mx
RESUMEN
El proceso de análisis jerárquico permitió establecer un modelo jerárquico de función objetivo con un con-
junto de criterios, con la finalidad de seleccionar los mejores sitios para la instalación de un parque eólico en
la región norte de México. En este estudio se utilizó un gran número de criterios conocidos y estimados de
distintos tipos (técnicos, económicos, ambientales y sociales) basados en estudios e información preliminar.
Dichos criterios permitieron identificar las variables de mayor importancia. El proceso simplifica un problema
complejo dividiéndolo en procesos más simples que pueden analizarse de forma independiente, facilitando así
la labor de los encargados de la toma de decisiones, ya que permiten contemplar alternativas viables. Obte-
nidas las variables de mayor peso e importancia para el estudio se transformó cada una de ellas en mapas de
factibilidad. Luego, mediante la técnica de algebra de mapas acoplada a un sistema de información geográfica
se evaluaron los sitios (en porcentajes de factibilidad) en un mapa general que cumple con el conjunto de las
variables impuestas. Los mejores escenarios para la ubicación de un parque eólico se localizaron en la parte
sur del estado de Coahuila. Los análisis de criterios múltiples enfocados a la toma de decisiones en el proceso
de planeación y caracterización de sitios factibles de un parque eólico, son herramientas que optimizan la
selección de distintas variables favoreciendo las más importantes del proyecto, al permitir que se tomen en
cuenta elementos de decisión difíciles de evaluar o cuantificar.
ABSTRACT
The analytic hierarchy analysis process allowed establishing a hierarchical model of a target function under a
set of criteria aimed at choosing the best sites for the installation of wind farms in the north of Mexico. In this
study, a large number of known and estimated criteria of diverse types (technical, economic, environmental,
and social) were used, based on preliminary studies and information that allowed for the identification of the
most relevant variables. The process simplifies a complex problem into simpler ones that can be analyzed
independently, facilitating the efforts of decision takers since it allows envisaging the feasible alternatives.
Once the most weighty and relevant variables were obtained, each variable was transformed into feasibility
maps, and through the technique of map algebra coupled to a geographic information system, the sites were
assessed in feasibility percentages in a general map fulfilling the set of imposed variables. The best scenarios
for the location of a wind farm corresponded to the southern part of the state of Coahuila. The multicriteria
analyses focused on decision-making within the planning process and characterization of feasible sites for
a wind farm, are tools that optimize the selection of different variables, favoring the most relevant for the
project by considering decision elements that are difficult to assess or quantify.
Keywords: hierarchical analysis, multicriteria analysis, optimization, wind farm, geographic information
system.
border (Baja California Norte, Sonora, Chihuahua, 2.1. Selection of the study area
Coahuila, Durango, Nuevo León, and Tamaulipas). Although in Mexico the development of wind farms
Traditionally, the development of eolic installations has been mainly carried out in the south (as in the
has been concentrated in central and southern re- aforementioned case of Oaxaca) due to the strength
gions of the country, mainly in the state of Oaxaca. of winds in the region, in recent years the federal
Over the last years, due to its characterization as government has decided to explore the potential of
an exploitable region, northern Mexico has been other non-coastal states of the northern border to take
taken into account to explore its possibilities for the advantage of their wind power resources (SENER,
development of eolic energy, with the expectation 2016). For this, a series of criteria and restrictions
of generating large economic and environmental were applied (Table I) using digital cartography
benefits (SENER, 2016). and applying maps algebra with GIS. Maps algebra
allowed combining different layers of territorial
conditions aimed at obtaining alternative information
2. Methodology maps connected to aptitudes and/or concrete aspects
The process to select optimal sites for the installation of the studied area.
of eolic parks was developed in four stages (Fig. 1): According to the characteristics of the study, a grid
(1) selection of the study zone, (2) statement of vari- was designed to subdivide the region and incorporate
ables with their specific weights, (3) analytic hierar- in each of them the information on the considered
chy process to obtain the variables with the greatest variables. The size of the mesh must be according to
relevance, and (4) use of GIS to visualize results. the information and obtained criteria, and, above all,
The methodology requires to determine the study on the dimensions of the wind farm project. Each cell
zone based on the digital cartographic information. In of this mesh represents a matrix of the possible sites
addition, a larger period than normal was considered for the installation of wind farms, which eased the
for the measurement of the wind factor, By means interpretation and localization of the data proposed
of the meteorological model Weather Research in the study.
and Forecasting (WRF) daily data on direction and
amount were analyzed for a period of five years, from 2.2 Proposed variables
2008 to 2012 (CCA, 2016). Both qualitative and quantitative criteria that can
To analyze the variables proposed in this influence an eolic project—site variables—were
study, we used multiple-criteria decision analysis named. In this study, a total of 28 variables divided in
(MCDA), which helps to make decisions on a posed four groups were considered (Table II). The proposed
issue for choosing, classifying, and organizing the criteria for the selection of the most feasible sites
proposed elements. Specifically, we applied the were grouped in technical, economic, environmental,
analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a powerful and and social variables, posing seven conditions for each
flexible tool for MCDA which is used for issues that group. Saaty (2003) establishes this as a necessary
require assessing both quantitative and qualitative condition to avoid confusion and inconsistence in
aspects through a common scale, performing pair- the information by including more than this number
wise comparisons between criteria and alternatives. of variables.
Results were coupled in a GIS, aimed at obtaining a The proposed variables must allow taking into ac-
feasibility map of the best sites for the localization count the most important aspects of an eolic project,
of wind farms. considering its impact on the economy, environment,
124 A. Ruvalcaba García and T. González Morán
NPA: natural protected area; Ramsar site: designated wetland of international importance under the Ramsar
Convention.
Table II. Proposal of the 28 variables for the study, classified in four groups.
Table II. Proposal of the 28 variables for the study, classified in four groups.
and society of a specific region. In addition, depend- in converting objective and subjective judgments into
ing on its relevance each proposed variable was as- relative weights according to the relevance of the
signed a relative weight, which was obtained through variables. This structured method optimizes complex
consulting papers on planning and constructing wind decision making when there are multiple criteria
farms with multicriteria considerations and the use or attributes, by means of breaking up the problem
of optimization methods (Moragues and Rapallini, into a hierarchical structure, easing the handling of
2004; Álvarez, 2006; Castillo, 2011; Caballero and the problem by dividing it into a set of individual
García, 2012; ERM, 2014; Artillo, 2017; Obando, problems. We used this technique because it allows
2017). to understand the problem since it can be analyzed
independently, leading to a solution that involves a
2.3 Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) large number of combinations and alternatives with
The AHP proposed by Saaty (1977) is a multicriteria the help of objective and subjective judgements.
decision-making technique that simplifies a problem There are many tools based on AHP, being one of
and assesses the relative relevance of criteria and the most used an open code software called Priority
alternatives. The main benefit of using AHP consists Estimation Tool (PriEsT). It is an interactive tool to
126 A. Ruvalcaba García and T. González Morán
support the analysis of decision making aimed at and a scale of three colors was determined according
estimating priorities based on pairwise comparison to the obtained numerical values, namely: optimal
judgments. It helps decision makers to estimate (green = 9), mid-optimal (yellow = 5), and not op-
their preferences for classifying options and adopt timal (red = 1). With this classification, eight maps
judgments for each criterion and reach a final clas- were obtained with vector information, to which a
sification. It offers a wide range of optimal solutions weighted overlapping process of layers in the GIS
based on multi-objective optimization, in contrast to was performed. The weighted overlapping allowed
other techniques that offer only one solution (Siraj for multicriteria evaluations to resolve the deci-
et al., 2015). sion-making problem in which numerous factors with
In the used methodology, 28 variables were con- different assessments participate (Castellanos, 2017).
sidered that were assigned weighting values, depend-
ing on their relevance (Table III). The assignment of 3. Results
each variable in this study was based on an extensive Table I shows that the states of Baja California Norte,
review of literature on eolic projects. Sonora, and Tamaulipas are excluded as they do not
comply with criterion 3. In this way, the analyzed area
considered information on the sites in Chihuahua,
Table III. Assignment scale of the pairwise comparative Coahuila, Durango, and Nuevo León. Figure 2 shows
relevance (Saaty and Vargas, 1991).
the area that complies with the set of established
Weighting values Score criteria (area of active cells).
The proposed area encompasses an extension of
Extremely more important 9 approximately 34 900 km2 with maximal distances of
Very strongly more important 7
Strongly more important 5 310 × 160 km. The whole area is divided in grids of
Moderately more important 3 100 km2, which is a mid-detail and regional measure.
Equally important 1 It includes important municipalities like Torreón,
Matamoros, Viesca, Parras, San Pedro, General Cepe-
da, Carmen, Ramos Arizpe, Saltillo, García, Mina,
Hidalgo, Abasolo, and General Escobedo.
The AHP was applied to each group of variables
with the PriEst software, which analyzed the matrix 3.1 Analytic hierarchy process applied to variables
hierarchical patterns by making a pairwise compari- Table IV presents the results of the priorities esti-
son of the constituents in each level with their prior- mation analysis using PriEsT. In this way, it was
ities, calculating the contribution of each alternative. possible to choose the two highest values of each
From each analyzed group, the two variables with group obtained from the eight most relevant variables
the highest weighting were chosen, considering them for the project. As a result of the process, the most
as the most relevant for the project. Then a similar fundamental variables for the study were:
procedure was performed with PriEsT to the eight
resulting variables in order to prioritize them and • Technical: construction details and viability of
their incorporation into GIS, which allowed their the wind farm.
utilization in information layers. • Economic: estimated cost and investment recov-
ery time.
2.4 Geographical Information System (GIS) • Environmental: amount of wind and animal bio-
Once the eight most important variables were obtained diversity.
from the AHP, they were transformed from their nu- • Social: acceptation of the project by social groups,
merical values into spatial (maps of variables) and and level of insecurity in the area.
then vector maps, aimed at obtaining raster-type maps
for each variable (a requisite for applying map alge- Table V shows the analysis made to estimate the
bra). Optimization values were assigned (Table III) most relevant priorities using PriEsT for the eight vari-
to each grid of the study area for each raster map, ables. Results point out that variables with the highest
Selection of optimal sites for wind farms, north of Mexico 127
103˚0'0''W 101˚0'0''W
26˚0'0''N
25˚0'0''N
0 185 370 740
Active cells
km
Inactive cells
Table IV. Results of the PriEsT software for the 28 variables and their specific weight.
Table V. Summary of the eight best variables analyzed with the PriEsT software.
weight for the project are: insecurity and winds, which The wind farms feasibility map is the result of
correspond to the social and environmental groups, another map algebra process, which used the previ-
respectively. The recovery variable appears as a third ous four maps. Algebra map allows the generation
relevant option for the project, although with a similar of a feasibility map in a colored chart (Fig. 3), which
relevance as biodiversity and construction. served to identify the most adequate areas to develop
a wind farm. The percentage of feasibility varies
3.2 Feasibility map for wind farms according to the colors in the chart of optimal sites.
Firstly, with the vector information in Table V Figure 3 shows the north and northwest regions
and the distribution of active cells in Figure 2, we with the best feasibility for the development of
calculated the initial optimal maps of variables in wind farms. Light-green cells indicate a 70 to 80%
Table V. Thereafter, the specific weight value of each feasibility, and the yellow cells correspond to a 60
cell in these maps was assigned, in order to transform to 69% feasibility. This map favors environmental
them into raster-type maps. features, with a good amount of wind and low impact
The eight raster-type maps grouped in pairs and on the fauna. Regarding the social aspects, it does
types of variables (technical, economic, environ- not present organized social groups and corresponds
mental, and social) were subjected to a map algebra to a secure zone. These two subsections received
process, obtaining four maps for each of the proposed weights slightly higher than the technical and eco-
types. nomic variables.
103˚0'0''W 101˚0'0''W
26˚0'0''N
Simbology
Cartographic limits
Inactive cells
Cells of 10 x 10 km
Feasibility
10-40%
40-50%
50-60%
25˚0'0''N
60-70%
70-80%
80-90%
25 50
km
Fig. 3. Map of optimal sites with feasibility values associated with a table of values
to install a wind farm.
Selection of optimal sites for wind farms, north of Mexico 129
Regarding the worst sites, they are located in In most eolic projects, technical and economic
the central and northeast regions, where feasibility criteria are considered as the most relevant. However,
is below 50%. According to our data, these regions in this study, environmental and social variables were
have social perturbations like robbery and criminality given a greater importance, fundamentally with the
and the required amount of wind is minimal, so they idea of causing minimal disturbance to the flora and
would pose technical risks for the project. fauna of the region and providing benefits to the local
Finally, there are six dark-green cells in the north- populations by generating employments, activating
west region which comply with the best feasibility the economy, and diminishing the consumption of
conditions (80-90%). At the municipal level (INEGI, traditional energy.
2015), they would correspond to the southwest of Co- The use of a hierarchical process in this study al-
ahuila, specifically to the municipalities of San Pedro lowed obtaining results that incorporate a large num-
(106 142 inhabitants), Matamoros (108 950 inhabi- ber of criteria for the decision makers, by organizing
tants), Torreón (679 288 inhabitants), and Viesca (21 efficiently and graphically the information regarding
549 inhabitants). Thus, these are considered the most the decision-making process. The construction of
adequate zones for the development of a wind farm. maps of variables eases the handling and interpreta-
tion of data (Xu et al., 2012).
The proposed methodology allows resolving
4. Discussion problems that include multidisciplinary aspects,
The north of Mexico has a considerable number re- and offers the involved groups a solution that can be
gions adequate for the development of wind farms, easily understood and accepted (Janke, 2010, Kang
as can be observed from the followed methodology et al., 2011; Díaz et al., 2017), in contrast with some
using only digital cartographic information (Table I). studies on the feasibility of sites for wind farms where
This technique is useful to roughly locate sites for only techno-economic aspects (knowing where to
exploitation. In addition, if meteorological informa- place the wind turbines, calculating economic losses,
tion from the WRF is implemented, allowing for a increasing the efficiency of the wind farm, etc.) are
lengthier temporal measurement of the wind factor taken into account (EWEA, 2009).
(5 years), the uncertainty for estimating possible sites
is reduced. This contrasts with yearly measurements
to obtain information on the wind factor, which in 5. Conclusions
some cases are only intermittent and scarcely reliable The process of choosing a location for installing
(ERM, 2014). and developing wind farms is a complex task due to
The southern part of the state of Coahuila presents compulsory regulations and requirements; hence, this
the best options for wind farms, as it has industrial type of study is a good option for Mexico.
infrastructure and a territory with few environmental The use of multicriteria computational hierarchical
conflicts (in relation to the limits of natural protected algorithms eases the task of decision makers to select
zones). These conditions strengthen the possibility to the location of a wind farm. The advantage of this
support this type of projects. methodology is its great usefulness when decision ele-
The use of hierarchical algorithm was proposed ments are scarcely known and difficult to quantify and
to ease and optimize the decision-making process assess, as it permits calculating the contribution of each
when gathering results that contemplate the largest alternative with respect to the others. This methodology
number of criteria and conditions, in order to obtain can be applied in other regions of the country, as long as
the best alternatives for this complex project. The the variables of interest are well defined and evaluated.
posed criteria were divided in four groups covering The AHP, using the PriEsT software, is a useful
the most important aspects in the technical, economic, tool for selecting the most relevant variables for the
environmental, and social areas (Table II). Based on project. AHP allows estimating priorities based on
the literature and prior contributions to this type of pairwise comparison judgments. It offers a wide
projects, representative values were assigned to the range of optimal solutions based on multi-objective
variables (Table IV). optimization.
130 A. Ruvalcaba García and T. González Morán
The use of GIS to couple the analysis of the best Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Na-
variables yields visual results of the feasible sites. cional Autónoma de México, Mexico.
The resulting optimal sites map reveals numerous CONABIO. 2014. Portal de geoinformación. Comisión
sites with values from 10 to 40% and 80 to 90% for Nacional para el Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversi-
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