WOLAYTA SODO UNIVERSITY

COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS

DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

THE EFFECT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO- ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT (IN CASE

OF TOCHA WOREDA)

A RESEARCH PROPOSAL PAPER SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS IN

PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIRMENT FOR THE BACHLOR OF ARTS DEGREE IN
ECONOMICS

BY: AYELE DEGU

Eco/Sum/006/09

ADVISOR: LAMBOMA A (M.SC

AUGUST, 2022

WSU, ETHIOPIA

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II
 Acknowledgement

First and for most I will like to thanks the God for endowing with the staying power and courage of
going through up and down to reach the stage where I now. Next to that I would highly appreciate my
advisor, Mr. Lambamo AM (M.S)., for his strive going through each point by wasting his precious time
in reading the paper as well as for his supportive criticism.

Our social thanks go to our family for their intrinsic help and financial as well as moral support while
doing our work.

Finally I want to appreciate my family specially my father and brother Abera, you are the case for to be
happen you are my side in financial assistance and advisor.

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 ACRONYMS

CSA Central Statistical Agency

DC Developed Country

EC Ethiopian Calendar

EEA Ethiopian Economic Association

FDRE Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia

GDP Growth Domestic Production

ILO International Labor Organization

LDC Less Developed County

MOFED - Minister of Finance and Economic Development

NGO Non-governmental Organization

NPPE National Population Policy of Ethiopia

UN United Nation

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Acknowledgement………………………………………………………………………………………….

ACRONYMS………………………………………………………………………………………….

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CHAPTER ONE………………………………………………………………………………………….

1.
INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………………………………………….

1.1. Backgro

Contents

Acknowledgement………………………………………………………………………………………….

ACRONYMS………………………………………………………………………………………….

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III
CHAPTER ONE……………………………………………………………………………………

1. INTRODUCTION……………………………………………………………………………………….

1.1. Background of the study…………………………………………………………………………….

1.2 Statement of the Problem…………………………………………………………………………….

1.3 Objective of the study…………………………………………………………………………….

1.4 Significance of the study…………………………………………………………………………….

1.5. Limitation and Scope of the Study……………………………………………………………………

1.6 Limitation of the study…………………………………………………………………………….

1. 7 Organization of the Paper…………………………………………………………………………….

IV
CHAPTER TWO…………………………………………………………………………………………….

LITRACTURE REVIEW……………………………………………………………………………………

2.1 Theoretical Literature Review…………………………………………………………………………..

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2.1.1 Population Growth and Socio-economic
Development………………………………………………………………………………………………..

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2.1.2 Determinant of population
change…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
….

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2.1.3 Impact of rapid population
growth…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
…

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2.1.4 Population size and
Trends…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………….

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2.1.5 Impact of population growth on Dawuro ZoneTocha woreda town socio-economic
development……………………………..

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2.2 Empirical Literature……………………………………………………………………………………..

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CHAPTER THREE………………………………………………………………………………………….

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3. RESEARCHMETHODOLOGY………………………………………………………………………….

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3.1 Description of the Study Area…………………………………………………………………….......

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3.2 Types and Source of Data……………………………………………………………………………….

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3.3 Method of data collection…………………………………………………………………………..…

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3.4 Sampling design………………………………………………………………………………………..

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CHAPTER: FOUR…………………………………………………………………………………………...

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4. DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION…………………………………………………………

xv

4.1. Primary data analysis…………………………………………………………………………………..

xv
4.1.1. Background of respondent

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 xv
4.1.2 Population growth and socio- economic development of the town.

xvi

4.2, Secondary data analysis

xxi
4.2.1 Consequences of rapid population growth on the town Socio-economic development

xxi
4.2.2.1.3 Housing service

xxiii

4.3 Population growth and socio-economic development in the town

xxiii

CHAPTER FIVE

xxiv

5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATION

xxiv

5.1. Conclusion

xxiv

5.2. Recommendation

xxiv

REFERENCE

xxvi
VII
APPENDIX

xxvii

und of the study

1.2 Statement of the Problem

1.3 Objective of the study

1.4 Significance of the study

1.5. Limitation and Scope of the Study

1.6 Limitation of the study

1. 7 Organization of the Paper

CHAPTER TWO

LITRACTURE REVIEW

2.1 Theoretical Literature Review

2.1.1 Population Growth and Socio-economic Development
2.1.2 Determinant of population change
2.1.3 Impact of rapid population growth
2.1.4 Population size and Trends
2.1.5 Impact of population growth on Dawuro ZoneTocha woreda town socio-economic development

2.2 Empirical Literature

CHAPTER THREE

3. RESEARCHMETHODOLOGY

3.1 Description of the Study Area

3.2 Types and Source of Data

3.3 Method of data collection

3.4 Sampling design

VIII
CHAPTER: FOUR

4. DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

4.1. Primary data analysis

4.1.1. Background of respondent
4.1.2 Population growth and socio- economic development of the town.

4.2, Secondary data analysis

4.2.1 Consequences of rapid population growth on the town Socio-economic development
4.2.2.1.3 Housing service

4.3 Population growth and socio-economic development in the town

CHAPTER FIVE

5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATION

5.1. Conclusion

5.2. Recommendation

REFERENCE

APPENDIX

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 Abstract

This study focused on the effects of rapid population growth on socio- economic development in case of Tocha
town. The number of population are increasing from time to time which is shown by high fertilities and
migration and this has a greater impacts on increasing number of unemployed peoples, lack of job opportunity,
decrease in land share and infrastructure which directly affects the quality life of the society. The General
objective of this study is to assess the effect of rapid population growth on socio-economic development of
Tocha town municipality town. Moreover, the specific objective is to analyze the relationship and consequence
of rapid population growth on socio-economic development.

To get data from target population in the town questionnaires, interviews and secondary data from different
office of the town have been used. To analyze data obtained by questionnaire and interviews the researchers
used descriptive analysis, which includes tabulation, percentages, averages, and graphical. Sampling is also
used to get representative sample from household of population of the Town.

For the greatest causes of rapid population growth on socio-economic development, different policy
applications are needed. These policies are different measures to be taken by the government to avoid the effect
of rapid population growth on socio-economic development.

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 CHAPTER ONE

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1. Background of the study

A high population growth is a growing concern throughout the world and a challenge to countries’
economies. In the year 2010 the world’s population will 6.7 billion and is projected to rise to 9.2 billion by
2050 with almost all population growth will projected to occur in what are now considered less developed
regions the major shifts in population weights by continent will the result of changes in fertility and
mortality rather than large-scale migration (Cees 2008).

Ethiopia is one of the less developing countries (LDCs) and characterized by rapid population growth
which is not balanced with economic development of the country. The Ethiopia annual growth rate was
2.4% with the doubling time of population is about 24 years. Such rapid growth population change in fact
strains socio-economic development of our country seriously. In Ethiopia rapid population growth brought
a reduction in per capital income, social service provision, unemployment, dependency ratio, natural
resource and environment degradation, job opportunity, basic need self sufficient provision of good and
service and size of land available for farming and housing. The high concentration of population causes
environmental change such as land degradation, deforestation and soil erosion as well as change in rain fall
(EEA, 2008).

Southwestern Ethiopia people regional state is one of the largest regions in the Federal Democratic Republic
of Ethiopia (FDRE) that share boarder with other regions and highly populated with different unique
features. The region is rich in natural resource and have very good environment for investment and
agricultural production. The region is characterized by rapid population growth especially around urban
areas. SNNPRs ranked second in terms of population size with a population density of 140 people per
square kilometer. The fertility rate of the region was about5.3 children per women. The regional population
growth is not balanced with the economic development and this brought various impacts (Population
Annual Report of SNNPRs, 2011).

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1.2 Statement of the Problem
. In Ethiopia, population growth is a real problem of economic development because unrestricted population
will increase is seen as the major crisis causing low level of living, malnutrition, ill health, environmental
degradation and other social problem (Todaro, 2008.)

Tocha town is also one of the areas in Ethiopia, it will faces many problems from population growth; these
problems are on distribution of land, social service, job opportunity food security, and etc. Moreover,
rapidly growing population will exposes the town to serious problems like unemployment and
environmental ecological imbalance, this and other problems are put the town in vicious circle of poverty.
Consequently, the town has less accessibility of education and health sector facilities, to fill the need and
demand of the whole society and country: This problem will came from population growth (Tocha Woreda
Town).

Many research scholars for example martin is one of them showed that the rapid population growth has its
own consequences on socio-economic development in urban areas, and rural areas are low compared to this.
These unsolved and non-conclusive problems will include decrease in land holding, high rate of
unemployment, shortage of social service and housing issues and etc. Thus, by taking the above noted
problems into account this research paper assesses the effect of population growth on socio-economic
development of Tocha town. In line with this the following research questions will raised:

 What is the causal relationship between population growth and socio- economic development of
the town?
 How do socio-economic developments will respond due to dynamics in Population growth?
 Reduce the rapid population growth and bring its socio-economic improvement?

1.3 Objective of the study

The general objective of this study is to assess the effect of rapid population growth on socio-
economic development of Tocha town of Dawuro Zone of the South Western Region. In doing so,
the following are the specific objectives of the research:-
 Examining relationship between population growth and socio- economic development of the town.
 Analyzing the response of socio- economic development will due to shocks of population growth
of the town.
 Assessing the consequence of rapid population growth on socio-economic development.

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1.4 Significance of the study
The paper was aimed to provide recent and comprehensive information on the effect of rapid population
growth on socio-economic development of the town. It also tells the impact of rapid population in urban
areas that was resulted from population growth through high rural-urban migration. The study will provides
information’s on current condition of different data profiles and policy recommendations on the effect of
rapid population growth on economic development of Tocha town. It was also used for policy makers on
social services and economic development of the town. It was further contributes to the existing literature by
extending the works of others and helps in filling the knowledge gap in this area. 1.5 Scope and limitation of
the study

The studies were limited on the effect of population growth on socio-economic development. The research
was focus on the effects of rapid population growth on the town’s socio-economic development. The
research was covering 2012-2016 year data source of the town population status. The motivation to conduct
these analyses is to assess some consequence of population growth on socio-economic development of
Tocha town. The study is conduct on the kebele of the town. The collected data was analyzed using
descriptive analysis. But this paper analysis are limited by shortage of primary and secondary data source,
lack of available current data profiles, shortage of reference materials, time and budget.

1.5. Limitation and Scope of the Study

The studies limited on the effect of population growth on socio-economic development. The researcher would
focus on the effects of rapid population growth on the town’s socio-economic development. The research cover
2011-2015 year data source of the town population status. The motivation to conduct these analyses is to assess
some consequence of population growth on socio-economic development of Tocha town. The study is
conducted on the kebeles of the town.

1.6 Limitation of the study

The study of this paper analysis are limited by shortage of primary and secondary data source, lack of available
current data profiles, shortage of reference book, internet service, time and budget are some limitation of the
study that reduce expected finding of research paper analysis.

1. 7 Organization of the Paper

The paper organized into five main chapters with the first chapter including background, the statement of
problem, research question, objectives, and the scope of the study, and significance of the study. The second
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chapter mainly focuses on review of related literatures. The third chapter is the research methodology. Such as
types and sources of data. The fourth chapter contains data analysis and interpretation and the fifth chapter is
conclusion and recommendation

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 CHAPTER TWO

LITRACTURE REVIEW

2.1 Theoretical Literature Review

Populations the productive live and health of individuals, couples, community and all the people in the
country.

Population is the group of people living in a definite geographic area. Population concerned in the term of
size, growth rate, structure, demographic and distribution of people in the area human population is the main
productive force and maker of spiritual and material. It includes gender equality and equity, as well as,
participation of community in matter related to their wellbeing. Population dynamics refers to variable that
determine the level of population growth and thus function are fertility, mortality and migration in changing
the size and structure of population of an area. While fertility and mortality are biological factor, migration
is purely non-biological in nature. The stage of social and economic and demographic development
determines the level of each of these factors. Population dynamics is an increase or decrease in population
size due to birth rate, death rate and migration (Encyclopedia of population, 2000).

Economic and social development is a process of improving the quality of all human lives aspects of
development are raising peoples level of living in their income and consumption level, creating condition
conducive to growth of people self-esteem and increasing people freedom enlarging range of their choice.

It is also include change in social service, economic transformation, job opportunity and infrastructure
facilities development in the society (MOFED, 2009).

2.1.1 Population Growth and Socio-economic Development

The world most growth center of population is the LDCs. In the world, LDCs have very high birth rates,
while developed country has birth rate below replacement rate. Population growth rate in LDCs is 2% per
annual, compared to 1.1% in middle income countries and 0.7% per annual in DCs. According to UN of
population report, LDCs are not in position of lowering their population growth rate that hinders their
economic progress. Such large of people living in the world have no sufficient resource to feed such large
people living in the world. Natural resource is naturally limited but being and need and wants are not
limited. In LDCs, due to high birth rate children under age 15 are 32% of total population, while 17% in

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 DCs, this refers dependence burden on active labor force to support financially more children and older
(UN, 2006).

In most developing countries rapid population growth has various consequences on socio-economic
development. According to UN ,in LDCs 80% of population engaged in agriculture production, However,
land holding diminishing that decrease production of agriculture result in short age of food securities. As
population rises the demand for natural resource and social service increase and capital per worker ratio
decrease lowering standard of living. Population have a major barrier to alleviate poverty cycle, inequality
and under development of economic absorbing capacities of economy increases unemployment and
migration of labor force. Population growth dampens economic growth and social transformation through
capital shadowing effect that is reduction in capital per worker ratio, age dependence of young resulting in
high consumption of food production, depleting saving and investment activity in the country (EEA, 2008).

In Ethiopia as EEA states that the relationships between rapid population growth and socio-economic
development have a negative effect due to the imbalance between population growth and economic
development. The strong relationship between population and economic development is the area of food
production and supply, sustainable economic growth, poverty alleviation, PCI, job opportunity distribution
of social service, standard of living and land share that will be mismatch with present Ethiopian population
growth and economic development. The size of population in relation to economic growth and development
and standard of living is negatively related, this shows under development of economy and rapid population
growth. (EEA, 2010)

2.1.2 Determinant of population change

Determinant of population change are kwon as component or dynamic of population change. It determines
the level of population growth /change/ in size and structure of the population of an area. Determinants
population change brings about difference in size and characteristics of population of a given social
environment. The basic determinants of population change include fertility, mortality and migration. The
total population of any are at the end of a given year equals to the population size at the beginning of the
year plus all the births, minus all the death ,plus all the in migrant /immigrants and minus all the out
migrants /emigrants. This refers to the concept of population growth rate (Girma, 2003).

While Dyson (2010) contends that mortality decline is the chief cause of economic development, McKeon
(1976) argues that the direction of causality should be reversed, i.e., it is the improvement in the standard of
living that results in lower death rates. On the other hand, evidence from contemporary developing
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 economies tends to show that it is mortality decline that leads to economic growth, as it increases
investment in both physical and human capital via increased savings rates and education (Bloom and
Canning, 2008).

The experience of fertility decline in developing countries in Asia and Latin America has reduced a
country’s dependency ratio, which then raised the potential for faster economic growth through higher
saving and investment levels in both physical capital such as roads, production facilities and human capital
such as higher educational attainment and training for each young worker, particularly for an extended
period over which the labor force increases at a faster rate than the pool of dependent people ( Bloom and
Canning, 2001).

Due to this decline, however, eventually this region will experience an increase in its old-age dependency
ratio as is the case for both Europe and Japan (Bloom et al. 2009).

Population ageing thus may be exercising a negative impact on economic growth. While many problems
such as congestion, pollution, and slum settlements are caused by urban growth in contemporary developing
countries, cities are often described as ‘engines’ of growth (Beal, 2009).

Cities also provide large and concentrated markets, allowing for economies of scale in the production of
manufactured goods as well as low transportation costs. It is in urban areas that firms can better match their
labor demands with the supply of skills, while the returns to infrastructure such as roads, port facilities, and
electricity grids are greater due to the concentration of industries and firms. By analyzing for the period
since 1975 and find that urban growth has been positively associated international data with per capita GDP
growth. Hypothesize that per capita GDP growth in a developing country is a function of the following
factors: the level of urbanization, urban growth, population growth, and population growth squared, young
and old dependency ratios, the mortality rate, the total fertility rate ( Dyson et al, 2008).

2.1.3 Impact of rapid population growth

2.1.3.1 Economic problems

A) Natural resource depletion and environment degradation

Rapid population growth in developing countries especially in Ethiopia in the context of low technological
advancement is exerting heavy pressure on natural resource and environment condition. The rising demand

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for food supply result from rapid population growth had lead to the expansion of cultivation in to land,
generally, unsuitable for crop production and animal husbandry (kapur R 2016).

In Ethiopia, the impacts of rapid population growth on social and economic development have degradation
of natural resource, change in climate, decline in land for housing rise in urban center to constraint /
building home, and soil erosion are the result of population. The traditional means of exploiting natural
resource have to be environmentally harmed full and economically unproductive.

As population rapidly increase in Ethiopia its impact on environment and resource is significant. These
are :deforestation is cut down trees for agriculture land ,wood and construction purpose, erosion and land
degradation by water and wind and land fragmentation that is majority farm house holds ,average land size
is now less than one hector per households. The link between population and natural environment are highly
related. The resource and environment is linked with the survival of the society and inevitably with
development. High population growth can bring environmental changes that have affect on change in social
organization and the change in social organization has consequences on poverty cycle (NPPE, 2006).

B) Agricultural Land share

Ethiopians cultivating system is mostly by traditional which leads to shortening of fallow periods and crop
rotation that helped maintain soil fertility. This traditional means of cultivation have lead to increase rate of
erosion, but decrease agricultural production. High demand for new farm lands, for age for livestock and
fuel wood and charcoal for cooking have contributed significantly to the massive reduction and destruction
of forest and woodland resources (Befekadu, 2000).

Population growth is related to agricultural development through a chain of reaction that includes decrease
land share and crop productivity. In the north and central high land of Ethiopia were residential patterns are
dense, natural land scopes are significantly changed in contrast to the south west area were the population
density are relatively low. Thus, means large land mass of Ethiopian high land constituted by Oromiya
region high land is severely degraded by human factor. The Ethiopia economy is highly influenced by
agricultural production and land holding, because of according to CSA, 80% of population live in rural areas
and economically based on agriculture. This is why Ethiopian economy is characterized by agrarian
economy. Agriculture is supply of food grain, cash crop, milk, dairy and meat product are known not
satisfies rapid population growth food need (Samson, 2010).

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C) Unemployment and Migration

The measurement of the level national employment or unemployment rate requires clarification of the
concept like; labor force, working age and productive activity .Unemployment are the working age who are
available for work and have actively sought work for employed, but unable to get job at the existing wage.
The working age ranks from 15-59 year (ILO, 2008).

The rapid population growth increase working age group or new labor force to labor market. Young full age
structure in impacts on employment resource as a large number of people enter in to labor force every year.
In our country due to low economic level the economically active labor force absorbed capacity of the
economy is limited .The majority of young people entering the labor force market work in traditional
agricultural sector and this puts a heavy burden on natural resource, environment condition, social security’s
and political issues. The problem of unemployment is high in urban area, which results due to migration of
people from rural to urban to search better job, good living standard and better per capital income.

Migration is the movement of people in space, often involving change in usual place of residence .Specially,
migration have a number of various effect of reliving population resource in crowd area ,spending cultures
from one area to another and bringing group into contact and there by conflict. Similarly, many studies have
proved that rural-urban migration strongly affects the agricultural sector in rural area by removing labor
force from the area to urban (Herbert J. Gens, 2001).

Internal migration has the main effect of redistributing the population size between rural and urban areas,
and between rural areas of low potential to those of higher agricultural potential. Therefore, internal
migration is an important element of population dynamics in agricultural countries like Ethiopia, where
internal migration is insignificant by volume. The overall inter regional flows have been from the northern
region to the south west and south east regions, as well as Fin fine city .This indicates that the migrant
have been moving out of the densely populated eroded northern and central high lands to area with
available land of agriculture and better job opportunity(Girma,2003).

D) Job Opportunity and Investment

In LDCs, like Ethiopia which have rapid population growth, it is difficult to create sustainable job
opportunity, because of a number of economic establishment are too few to absolve the large proportion of
the economically active labor forces. As projection indicates the size of working age (15-64) population is
higher than the investment job opportunity in the country. Several new job have to be created every year to
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 satisfy the growing working age population, but the job opportunity of socio-economic investment in
different sector are failed to satisfy the rapid growing population. In Ethiopia, with weak economic capacity
is un able to create sufficient new job, it implies low job opportunity and investment, that increase
unemployment people, resulting in increasing the number of people living below poverty line having rapid
population growth in an environment of weak economic structure. In addition in Ethiopia, the
government ,NGO and private investment is grow at low rate, that create low job opportunity for rapid
population growth ,special at urban area .due to short age of budget and technology ,government investment
in social service is low, which create more job opportunity for currently unemployed labor force (Girma,
2003) .

2.1.3.2 Social problems

A) Dependence ratio

Dependence ratio is a measure of the degree of burden created by the unproductive population over the
productive population. Dependency ratio is expressed in percentage. The population of Ethiopia is pre
dominantly young. This is a direct result of high fertility rate. Ethiopia has large non-productive
population, with large dependent population, expenditure for education, health, shelter, food and basic
service become very high. Rapid population growth produces a youthful population dominated by children
those who are almost unproductive economically, highly consuming rather than effectively producing
product (EEA, 2009).

B) Social service provision

In fact, the effects of rapid population growth on social and economic development of public service are
complex and adverse in their nature. Obviously rapid population growth entrants with public education,
health, housing, food supply, employment opportunity, investment and the quality of the environment at
large. As population of Ethiopia growth rapidly, the demand for social service increase simultaneously but
the economic capacity of country failed to satisfies the demand of all societies (EEA, 2009).

Effects on health: Ethiopia has registered a poor health statutes and high rate of population growth with
weak economic development. The poor health status is largely attributable to prevent table infection disease
and nutritional deficiencies. Poverty cycle, low level of education, inadequate access to clean water,
shortage of sanitary facilities and poor access modern health facilities have contributed to the poor health
situation or status in Ethiopia.

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 Effects on education: the rapid population growth has resulted in growing demand for education. Now days
though school are being built, total number of students has increased enormously. Thus there are still large
number of children who do not get chance to go school especially in rural areas. In many urban centers
school have overcrowded class rooms. to improve this situation a large sum of money on building
schools ,purchasing educational facilities and printing books as well as training the teachers being invested
but failed to satisfies rapid population growth of children population.

Effects on Housing: Ethiopia is currently facing a serious problem of housing due to limited supply. The
short age is aggravated by the high rate of growing of population and by the stagnation in the construction
of residential houses. Rapid population growth leads to high demand for housing shelter and other social
service. Homelessness is already a major part of the housing problem, mainly around urban center. The
number of homeless person or squatter who live in bus station, pavement and in any open spaces has
increased. In Ethiopia housing sector lack comprehensive policy, which create favorable condition for
housing market? Thus at present there is little change in construction of housing (Berhanu, 2008).

2.1.3.3 Political Problem

In addition to economic and social factor, there are also a series of political factors which are contributed to
the under development of the country’s economy. Political factor may include: crime, robbery and conflict.

In Ethiopia the number of population grow highly, without showing population growth, that result in
unemployment, migration, homeless, population density, low food supply and agricultural production could
fuel political instability and under development of the economy. The rapid rate of urban population growth
which Ethiopia has been experiencing since last decade couples of year has reached level where posses
serious problem to national development and promotion of social welfare (Berhanu, 2008).

2.1.4 Population size and Trends

By 1900, the population of Ethiopia was 11.8 million. It had annual growth rate of 0.2 percent. After 1900,
the population growth very fast, then between 1960 and1990 that is within short time, the population once
again doubled. After 1970, populations reach 29.5 million with 26 year of doubling time. In 2000, it reaches
63.4 million and 2.9 annual growth rates. This indicates Ethiopia population has been growing rapidly.
Obviously, rapid population change is a common demographic feature of LDCs (CSA, 2008).

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 2.1.5 Impact of population growth on Dawuro ZoneTocha woreda town socio-economic
development
Tocha Woreda town is affected by population growth in terms of the lack of land, unemployment, and other
social services. According to information taken from Tocha Woreda town administration and small micro
enterprise office, there is unemployment of 2909 and employed of 1543 in Tocha Woreda town. This
implies that there is the effect of population growth over the towns’ economy. Also there is the lack of
supply in terms of land, material, and money because of increasing number of people that unbalanced with
the yearly budget of the town (Tocha woreda town municipality office, 2015).

2.2 Empirical Literature

Evidences on Ethiopia economy showed that rapid population growth in the country has seriously affected
the development of the economy. The growth rate of GDP and perception GDP have been declining with
growth of population for instance. The GDP growth rate in 1978 was four times higher than that of the 1990
while per capita GDP declined to almost zero in 1990 from 2.6 in 1978 (Berhanu and Befekadu,
2007/2008).

Experiences over the last couple of decades in Ethiopia have shown that when human numbers increased
the population carrying capacity of the environment decreased.

“…. High population growth rate included in increased demand for resources and the rate all which these
resources are exploited. In Ethiopia where technology has not kept pace with the demands for greater
productivity, environmentally harmful and economic country productive methods or exploiting land
associated resources are resorted in order to meet immediate needs. As a consequence; climatic condition
became erratic and soil quality declined at an alarming rate” (national population policy of Ethiopia 2005).

Empirical evidence on Ethiopia agriculture and population growth shows as that there is a wide gap between
population growth and the corresponding in food production. “Declining per capital production, low caloric
consumption and increasing food insecurity and resource exploitations are the likely consequence of
population pressure in Ethiopia (NPPOE, 2005).

In an Africa context in general and Ethiopia in particularly the growth in food production has failed to keep
pace with population growth. In sub-Saharan Africa, for example the growth of per capital food production
is 2% while the population is growing at 3% per annum” (Abbi, 2011).

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Rapid population growth in Ethiopia aggravated the existing gap of unmet need for social services. The
quality of health and education services in the country have been and continued being deteriorated by the
rapid growth of population. A report presented to the office of prime minister of the transitional government
of Ethiopia in 2001 put the effect of population growth on the service sector as “In spite of the facts that
during the last several decades, environment figures in absolute terms, at various levels of education have
significantly increased, large proportions of the school age population still remained outside the school
system of the more rapid rate at which enrolment increased relative to facilities. The quality of education
has seriously deteriorated.” (National population policy of Ethiopia, 2009)

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 CHAPTER THREE

3. RESEARCHMETHODOLOGY

3.1 Description of the Study Area

Tocha Woreda town is one of the town of Dawuro Zones of South Nation, Nationalities and people Region of
Ethiopia. Which is located at a distance of 220km from Addis Ababa it is found in the south west part of
Ethiopia in Dawuro Zone in majority of economic activity of Tocha town under take in to informal sector and
the rest of population engaged on formal economic activity was the total population of Dawuro Zone according
to census , 2020G.C 652,531 from this male population 88,933 and female population 88,874 for
administrative simplicity the town has 5 kebeles administrative ( Tocha woreda town municipality
office,2009).The physical location of the town is situated between 6.73-7.01 latitude and 35.37-36.7 longitudes.
Its average temperature and rain fall are 15.1-25 and 1800-2000Mm respectively.

3.2 Types and Source of Data

The study was used both primary and secondary data. The primary data was collected through questionnaire
from selected residents of two kebeles by purposive techniques. Officers of kebeles and town administration
are included to get more detail information. Secondary data was obtained from annual population report data
of Tocha town labor and social affair, Annual population report data of kebeles of Ediget and Gibra.

3.3 Method of data collection

Both primary and secondary data's were collected for analyzing the Effect of population growth on socio
economic development. The primary data was collected from the respondent through interview and
questionnaires; secondary data was collected from the documentented materials which were found from statics
office and kebele administrative. From the respondent through conducted from kebeles.

3.4 Sampling design

The sample designed to conduct is random selection. The sample size of respondent for 73 questionnaires
respondents from 3641 household of the town. The respondent is resident of kebeles, officer of kebeles and
town administration.

14
The issues precision (how close the estimate is to the true population characteristics) and confidence (How
certain the researcher is that the estimate will really hold true for the population) are addressed by calculating
the sample size. The sample size is also influenced by time available, the budget and the necessary degree of
precision .The sample size needed is a function of confidence interval of ± 5%, confidence level of 95%, and
the population size of three thousand six hundred forty one (3641) and 361 sample size of the total population.
According to Kothari (2004) the sample size is determined using the formula of

Description

N=number of house holds

n=required sample size

z=confidence level at 95% (standard value of 1.96)

E=margin of error at 5% (standard value of 0.05)

P= population proportion at which the sample size is maximum (at p=0.5 and q=0.5, p*q=0.25) where q=1-p

Name of town Number of Total population of the Number of Sample size of

kebeles in the town households respondents
No

town
1 Tocha town 10 652,531 3,641 73
The descriptive way of data analysis includes statistical tools such as tabulation, percentage, ratio, average and
diagram representation are applied to explain the impact of rapid population growth on social and economic
development of the town in clear qualitative and quantitative ways. And also data will be analyzed by
descriptive statics.

15
 CHAPTER: FOUR

. DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

This chapter tries to analyze and interpret the data by employing different mechanisms. The researchers
collected the data from 73 households of tow (2) kebeles of the town. These are daily laborers, business persons
and government employees. To all of the 73 respondents are taken by using random sampling.

4.1. Primary data analysis

4.1.1. Background of respondent

This section presents the information collected from 73 residents of the town. This information is collected
through interview and structured questionnaire of 73 respondents.

Table 4 1: Age distribution of respondents.

Age( in year) Frequency Percents Mean age

<20 8 11 2
20-35 32 44 8
36-65 21 29 5
>65 12 16 3
Total 73 100 18

Source: Own survey, 2017

As the above table shows the high percentage of respondent’s age is between 20-35 ages that is 44 percent. It
can also be seen that more of the town’s household’s age is found to be between 20-35 years and 36-65 years.
The result shows that more of the societies are economically active in productive activity. And also 12 of
respondents are elder person who cannot contribution to economy, this increase dependence ratio of the town.

Table 4.2: Sex distribution of the respondent.

16
 This table explains about marital status of the household of the town.

Sex Frequency Percent (%) Average

Male 47 64 32
Female 26 36 18
Total 73 100 50
Source: Own survey, 2017

The above table shows that from 73 respondent 26 females are those lives alone with children without husband.
It also implies that these families come to this town to search better job opportunity and for education purpose.
This shows us that children without father but only mother cannot gain the education opportunity. This will
make in particular this family to fail under poverty and in general hindrance country’s development.

4.1.2 Population growth and socio- economic development of the town.

4.1.2.1, Family size of the respondent.

Family size is one of the important determinants of population growth in a given area. Increase in family size
makes the local area densely populated.

Table 4.3 Family size distribution of respondent:

Family size Frequency percent(%)

1-4 29 39.7
5-9 37 50.6
>9 7 9.5
Total 73 100

Source: own survey, 2017

Table 4.3 shows that, majority of the households have family members of 5-9.households with family size of 1-4 are
39.7 percent and with family size greater than 9 is 9.5 percent. The study has an implication that high fertility rate lead
to rapid population growth.

17
Population growth and economy of the town.

Frequency

250

200

150
frequency
economy
100

50

0
<4 >5&<9 >9

Family size

Fig: 4.1, family size & economy of the town.

This graph shows that population growth affect economic development. When family size is increase over the
economy. This implies that when population growth over economy there is no economic development rather
than subsistence food only. This is start from <4 family - >5&<9 family the economy increase and after that
decrease, this shows as family size increase economic development decrease. Then there is adverse relationship
between economic development and population growth.

4.1.2.2 Education level of the respondent.

Education level is one indicator of economic development that makes improve people’s social live. In Tocha
town people’s level of education is from 1-8. There are also illiterate group accounting for 15 percent that
affects the socio-economic development adversely.

18
 Table 4.4: Education level of the respondent.

Education level Frequency Percent Average

illiterate 11 15 1.5
1-8 22 30 3.1
9-10 15 21 2.1
11-12 8 11 1.1
Diploma 10 14 1.4
High education(BA) 4 5 0.5
MA/MCS 3 4 0.4
Total 73 100 10.5
Source: own survey, 2017

Majority of the households attained 1-8(30%), Diploma(14%) and BA (5%). This shows more or less shortage
of social service by side of education. This is one problem that rise from the rapidly increase of population
growth.

4.1.2.3, work condition and income of the respondent

Table 4.5: work condition, kind of work and monthly income

Are you currently employed Frequency Percent Average

Yes 28 38 14
No 45 62 22.5
Total 73 100 36.5
Monthly income(Birr)
<500 14 19 3.5
500-1000 21 30 5.2
1000-2000 28 38 7
>2000 10 13 2.5
Total 73 100 18
Source: own survey, 2017

The above table shows that majority of the respondent are currently unemployed that is 62 percent or 22 .5 on
average and those who did employ are 38 percent or 14 on average. Majority of respondent monthly income is
income of 1000-2000 that accounts 28(38 % or 7 on average), 500-1000 and >2000 are about 30 percent or 5.2
19
on average, and 13 percent on average 2.5 respectively and income less than 500 is 19 percent or 3.5 on
average.

Also it shows that majority of society have no job; earn low monthly income means when we compare with
currently living cost condition, many people earn monthly income b/n 1000-2000 this not survive there living
standard and day work that account for 28 (38% or 7 on average). So that this shows the mismatch of economy
and population growth.

4.1.2.4. Analyzing income of respondent, how it surviving and contribute to economy

Income growth led to economic development. But, the area is densely populated in general and large families in
particular have no any contribution to economic development rather than surviving life if more. On another
hand in other area there is no self-surviving than subsistent consumption.

Table 4.6: Income analysis.

Is your income surviving you? Frequency percent(%) Average

Yes 27 40 13.5
No 46 60 23
Total 73 100 36.5
Saving
Yes 20 27 10
No 53 73 26.5
Total 73 100 36.5
Source: own survey, 2017

The above table shows that although most of respondent can’t survive by their income this is 53(73%), there is
no saving by them from income because respondent who no saving (33) is greater than who have saving (20)
and 27(40%) can survive their life. This implies there is no contribution to economic development rather than
subsistence consumption. This shows what population growth makes on economic development adversely.

4.1.2.5 Housing condition of the respondent.

Another economic development explained by condition of house. House is one of social basic need to human
being fulfillment or lack of house shows the level of economic development.

Table 4.7: Housing condition.

20
House owner ship Frequency Percent (%) Average
Owner 22 30 7
Government 5 7 1.7
Rented 46 63 15
Other 0 24
Total 73 100 48
House built materials
Wood and mud 62 85 31
Metal and brick 11 15 5.5
Other 0 0 0
Total 73 100 36.5
Source: own survey, 2017

As the above table shows about the house ownership of respondent have their own house that is 22 (%) 30% 5(7
% is government house, 46 (63%t) is rented house. Most of the respondents home building materials are wood
with mud that is 62(85 %), the remaining 11(15%) build from metal& brick. Many people live in rented house
that were built from wood & mud. This shows the inverse relation between population and their economy.

Table 4.8: migrant, dweller and for work identification.

Frequency Percent Average

Dweller 25 34 8
Migrant 36 49 12
For work 12 16 4
Total 73 100 24
Source: own survey, 2017

As the above table shows about the migrant, dweller and for work implication the migrant to the town is
36(49%), 25(34%) is the dweller of the town and the 12(16%) for government worker. This implies that (49%)
or 12 average migrate to the town and added to the dwellers this makes increase the town’s population and
affect the town socio- economic development.

21
4.2, Secondary data analysis

4.2.1 Consequences of rapid population growth on the town Socio-economic development

The impact of rapid population growth of the town on social and economic development is complex and
adverse in its nature. The situation of population adversely affects the process of development. This is true in
developing urban area like Tocha town, where rapid population growth puts serious threat to development
efforts. Rapid population growth highly interacts with land share, social service, food production, employment
opportunity, per capital income, quality of natural resource and environment at large.

4.2.1.1 The towns Land share capacity and its population.

In the town, land share and its population are inversely related. As population of town growth rapidly their
demands for land share increase that diminish land share in the societies. See the following table and graph:

50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15 percent
10
5
0
us
e e e rt
y in rt bo
o tr
ad r vic us m po ga
h se d do ns
ial in co
n
t ra
c
so
Types of services

Fig: 4.2 land share of Tocha town.

The above graph shows in Tocha town the land shares for house is larger that is 47%. Land for transport (17%),
land for social service (12%), land for trade (9%), land for industry (5%), land for condominium house (5%),
and land for Gabo (for agricultural service) (5%). This show because of population growth large share of land
can be for household house. And also the land for industry, for social service, land for transport and for trade is
very important for economic development but they are less in percent that is 5%, 12%, 17%, 9% respectively.
This implies that population growth affect the land share capacity of the town in development of industry,
transport, trade and social service. This makes the deterioration of economic development.

22
Table 4.9: Tocha town’s populations by kebeles.

Kebeles Male Female Total Percent

Ediget 5206 5412 10,624 15
Gibra 3536 3680 10,025 41
Total 25,762 27,015 52,777 19
Percent 49 51 100 100s
Source: Tocha town labor and social affair and Own survey, 2017

The above table shows that yearly population growth of the town is about 3.4%. Out of the 4 kebeles of the
town, majority of the populations are found in kebele 02. Compared to other kebeles, 01 kebele has few
populations. This is because of lack of family planning program. This may result in an increase of
unemployment.

Number of population

25000

20000

15000

population
10000

5000

0
1 2 3 4
Kebele

Fig: 4.3 population of Tocha town by kebeles.

This grate 150 person.

23
 4.2.2.1.3 Housing service
House is one of the basic needs of human being. Types of houses of the town are major indicator of the level of
its development. It is not only the number matters but also the quality of constructional materials. Tocha town
is currently facing a serious problem of housing due to limited supply of its service. The shortage is aggravated
by the high rate of growth of the urban population and by the stagnation in the construction of residential
houses. Generally, as population grows rapidly, the proportion or ratio of houses decreases.

In T0cha town there are about 84% houses that provide different function. The common features of housing
units in Tocha town Kebeles are as follows:

 Most of housing units are built from materials likes timber, mud, and corrugated iron sheet.
 Most of the housing units are attached to one another.
 Most of the housing units have floor with tiles made from mud.
 Most of the housing units lack the essential services.
 There are great disparities in the standard of the quality of the houses.
Because of these problems majority of urban housing condition are relatively remained poor but the
town population growth rapidly that create more demand for housing than supply of housing services.

4.3 Population growth and socio-economic development in the town

In developing urban area like Tocha town, the relationship between rapid population growth and socio-
economic development have indirect relationship due to imbalance between population growth and economic
development.

The influence on population operates through population dynamic (fertility, mortality, migration), while that of
population on development of economy can be explained in terms of size, structure, age, and growth of
population. According to Tocha town since population size and growth are high, it is difficult to improve over
all social and economic development of the town. As the population of the town is dominated by economic
group inactive groups and which are totally dependent on their parents.

24
 CHAPTER FIVE

5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATION

5.1. Conclusion
The main determinants of population growth of the town emanate from large family size because of high
fertility rate, and increase urban migration over the study period. In this respect, the study provide that rapid
population growth in the town is the result of high birth rate and rise in migration of people from surrounding
rural area in to the town. The stage of socio-economic and demographic development factor (social, cultural,
economic and political) of the town societies in turn determines the level of fertility and urban migration.
Fertility rate and immigration increases the population growth, while mortality and emigration decrease
population of the town.

Moreover, the study confirmed that the impact of rapid population growth is the outcome of unbalanced growth
between population and socio-economic activities of the town. Rapid population growth of the town resulted in:
diminishing land share, increase in unemployment; high urban migration and inadequate creation of job
opportunity, rise in less than 15 age population, dependence ratio, and shortage of social service provision are
the main impacts of population that adversely affect the process of social and economic development in the
town. In the town high growth of population with limited supply of goods and services, result in low
development of social and economic transformation of the societies.

Regarding to this as the study proved in the Tocha town the relationship between population growth and
economic development of the town were negatively related. This is because of the mismatch between rapid
population growth and economic development. The strong relationship between population growth and socio-
economic development is the area of food production, per capital income, investment and production of goods,
distribution of social service, land share , basic need, infrastructure facilities, natural resources and sustainable
economic development that unbalanced with the present population growth of kebeles of society.

5.2. Recommendation
Government should reduce rapid population growth through well conducted population policy. Because the
Imbalance between population growth and economic development are a great headache of most developing
countries today. That population growth can address the main problem such as; lacks of job opportunity, lack of

25
social service distribution, improper utilization or immobilization of land, wastages of environment and rapid
urban migration.

To reduce unemployment for living population, Government should motivate the participation of private and
NGOs investment by creating better conducive environment for investment to expand more job opportunity, to
increase production of goods and services, to reduce dependence ratio, to increase per capital income and
improving living standard of the society.

The regional and federal government should improve living condition of societies through, better provision of
social service, expansion of investment and increase in production, rising per capital income, improving
provision of contraceptive method, increasing social awareness on impact of population growth on economic
development and enabling family control of their fertility.

The Tocha town administration should reduce rapid population growth and its effect on social and economic
development of town by taking some measurements as follows:-

1 Expanding modern health center, provision of better community based family planning.
2 Raising economic opportunity, educational status and empowerment of women because women have
more responsibility of rearing or bearing of children than man.
3 Increasing social awareness on low demand for children and impact of rapid population growth on the
town socio-economic development.
4 Maintain and improving the carrying capacity of the environment by taking appropriate environmental
protection and conservation measures to achieve sustainable development in the town.
5 Government should facilitate education opportunity to children who have no family, facilitate the
modern family planning program to reduce the family size, enhance job opportunity, guiding active
participation ratio and reducing unemployment to ensure economic development.
6 Town administration must be adopting market plan to stable the relation between land share and this
rapid population growth of the town.

26
 REFERENCE

…….. (2015)Annual population report of Tocha town, Tocha town communication office….. Befkadu and
Birehanu,N,(2007/2008),Annual report on the Ethiopian Economy, 2000E.c, Ethiopian Economic Association
press, Addis Ababa Ethiopia.

…… Beal and Fox, National Journal Academic of research science (2009).population growth and economic
development: policy question. Washington Dc, national academic press.

…… Bloom D.E canning D.E 2006 Booms Busts and echoes: how the biggest demographic upheaval in history
is affecting global development. Finance Dev.43, 8-13.

…….. Dyson T.cassen R. and L.visaria (Ends) (2008) Twenty-first century India population, Economy, human
development and the environment, oxford, Oxford University press.

…….. Easterlin Richard ….. “An economic Framework for Fertility analysis”. ´studies in Family
planning….Girma, K,(2011) population, labour force and unemployment in the primitive city of Ethiopia,
volume 25,Artistic printer press, Addis Ababa Ethiopia

…….Martin P. (2009), “Demographic Economic trends: implication for international mobility” United Nations
development program, human development reports.

Michael p.T. and Stephens’s, economic development tenth edition, 2009, New York University, USA.

…… Ministry of Finance and Economic development (MOFED), population and reproductive healthy, 2008.
Master printing press, Addis Ababa Ethiopia.

……. National population policy of Ethiopia :( 2007) Addis Ababa Spiegel Hennery William (1960).the rise of
American Economic thought: Philadelphia Chilton Book division.

…….. (2010) population annual report oromiya, (oromiya labor and social affa…. “World book Wikipedia,
Free Encyclopedia of Demography and population growth”volme3.

27
 APPENDIX

WOLAITA SODO UNIVERSITY

COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS

DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

Subject: questuonaire

Dear respondent:

The researchers prepare this questionnaire. The main purpose of this questionnaire is to prepare the research
paper on the topic of “the effect of population growth on socio-economic development in case study of
Tocha town”. Therefore, you are highly requested that to fill each questions truly and sensitively to give
acceptability for this paper since your responses quality determine the accuracy of the paper.

NB: filling more than one impossible.

Specifying is more important

For choice part mark ’X”

 Demographic information
1. Gender A) Male B) Female
2. Age A) below 20 B) 20-35 C) 36-50 D) above 50
3. Marital status: A)Single B)Married C) Divorce D) widow

4. Education level A) Illiterate B)1-8 C)9-10 D)11-12

E) Certificate F) Diploma G) BA degree H) MA/MSC I) PHD

5) Family size________________________________________________

6) How many children have you educated? ___________________________________________________

28
 7) How did you come here? A) Migrant B) dweller C) for work

If the answer number 7 is ‘A’ answer the following

8) Why because you migrate to here? Specify___________________________________________________

B) Economic information

9) Job status: Are you A) Employed B) unemployed

If the answer number 9 is ‘A’ answer the following 10-12

10) What is your job? A) Own worker B) day worker C) government worker D) Other

11) How many is your monthly income? A) < 500 B) 500-1000 C) 1000-2000 D) >2000

12) Is your income surviving your life? A) Yes B) No

If ‘No’ Specify___________________________________________________________________________

If the answer on question number 9 is ‘B’, answer the following:

13) What is your source of income? Specify_________________________________________________

14) Housing condition: specify _____________________________________

15) From what does your house have built? Specify ____________________________________________

16) How many rooms it has? A) 1-3 B) 3-5 C) >5

If your answer on question number’5’ is other than ’A ’then fill the following 17-19

17) Can your yearly income surviving your family life on basic need, education, and health and so on?

A) Yes B) No

18) If the answer on question number 17 is No (B) why?

Specify_________________________________________________________________________________

19) If your answer for question No. 17 is “Yes” Do you have saving from your income?
29
A) Yes B) No

20) If No specify___________________________________________________________________________

If your answer on question number ’5’ is especially ‘C’, answer the following

21) What is the effect of large number of family size on your economy?

A) Positive B) Negative

Specify for both_________________________________________________________________________

22) What other things that affect your income negatively? Specify _______________________________

The following questions are expected to be filled by town administrator

23) Is there high population growth in the town?

A) Yes B) B) No

If you answer question no”23” A, answer the following question 24-25

24) As population increase in the town what effect have you observe on environment?

A) Positive B) negative

Specify__________________________________________________________________________

25) How you are minimizing that effect?

Explain__________________________________________________________________________

26) Have you ever thought society of the town about the effect of population growth on economy?

A) Yes B) No

If you answer question no “26” A, answer for the question no “27”

27) What the society gain advantage from this?

_______________________________________________________________________________
30
 28) Is there any effect on public expenditure if population increases in the town?

A) Yes B) No

Specify________________________________________________________________________

29) Is there any negative impact on fulfillment of infrastructure to society?

A) Yes B) No

Identify__________________________________________________________________________________

30) Is there land share for private sector who contributes development for town?

A) Yes B) No

31