Climate Change Issues

Dr.Chirashree Ghosh
Department of Environmental Studies
University of Delhi
EFFECT OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE ON AIR QUALITY:

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT ?

Temperature 

Precipitation 

+ - Cloudiness  - ?
+ +
Ozone Wind speed ? PM

likely increase Relative humidity ?

unclear

Mixing depths??

Frontal passages,
circulation??
 Air pollutant
Gas, particle, aerosol, solute
Stomatal
Non-stomatal
flux/uptake/deposition
flux/uptake/deposition

External plant
surfaces

Soil
 • The location and structure of chloroplasts
Chloroplast
LEAF CROSS SECTION MESOPHYLL CELL
LEAF

Mesophyll

CHLOROPLAST Intermembrane space

Outer
membrane

Granum Inner
membrane
Grana Stroma Thylakoid
Stroma Thylakoid
Figure 7.2 compartment
 Plants produce O2 gas by splitting water

• The O2 liberated by photosynthesis is made

from the oxygen in water

Figure 7.3A
Climate change and agriculture:
Can the farmers beat the heat?
 Future Temperature Projections

Temperature is projected to increase by 1.4

to 5.8 oC by 2100
Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture

Production: Reduced crop yield, particularly in

south Asia
Soil: Drier, reduced productivity
Irrigation: Increased demand, reduced supply
Pests: Increased ranges and populations
Livestock: Increased diseases and heat stress
Fishery: Affected abundance and spawning
Economic impact: Reduced agricultural output
Increase in CO2 and temperature per
se has not been a problem
Impact on wheat production in India
• Production increased due to CO2 = 5.0
million tons in 2008

• Production decreased due to temperature

increase = 2.5 – 4.3 million tons

• Net impact of climate change: Almost

negligible or some advantage
Aggarwal et al. (2009)
Climatic risks are common in Indian
agriculture

• Drought: 2/3 land is rainfed; even irrigated

system is monsoon dependent especially in
eastern India
• Frost: common in north-western India
• Heat: frequent episodes
• Cyclones: in eastern coast
 Problem is increasing climatic risks

• Increasing No. of hot days, hot nights and

heat waves
• Increasing frequency of heavy precipitation
events
• More droughts and floods
• Increased snow melt
• Sea level rise
Climate change will aggravate
water scarcity
 Agriculture and poor farmers are
worst affected

Agriculture will be affected,

though it contributes only
13.5% to total global
warming

Poor farmers are especially

vulnerable, though they
contribute least to climate
change
So, what to do?

Mitigation?
Not easy
Not sufficient

Adaptation?

Both?
 Greenhouse gas inventory for Indian
agriculture
Source CH4 N2O CO2 eq.
(Tg) (Gg) (Tg)
Ruminants 10.1 - 252.0
Rice cultivation 3.5 - 87.3
Manure management 0.1 0.1 2.5
Crop residue 0.2 4.0 4.9
Soil - 132.3 39.4

Total 14.7 137.3 386.1

Pathak et al. (2009)

 Relative GWP of various sub-sectors of
agriculture

Residue Soil
Manure 1% 10% Ruminant
1% 65%
Rice fields
23%
 Nitrous oxide emission from soil

Total emission Emission per

for the state unit agril. area

Legend Total emission (Gg) Emission (kg ha-1)

<1 <0.3
1-3 0.3-0.8
3-7 0.8-1.3
7-14 1.3-1.8
>14 >1.8
 Rationalization of methane emission
from Indian rice fields

40.0 37.8
Methane (Tg)

30.0

20.0
20.0

10.0
5.3 4.1 3.5

0.0
1990 1995 1998 2003 2009
(EPA) (IPCC) (MAC) (IARI) (IARI)
 Emission of N 2O-N (Gg)
Methane emission (Tg)

0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0

20
40
60
80
100
120
140

0
1980-81
1980-81 1981-82
1981-82 1982-83
1982-83 1983-84
1983-84 1984-85
1984-85
1985-86
1985-86
1986-87
1986-87
1987-88
1987-88
1988-89 1988-89
1989-90 1989-90
1990-91 1990-91
1991-92 1991-92
1992-93 1992-93
1993-94 1993-94
1994-95 1994-95
Methane

1995-96 1995-96
1996-97 1996-97
1997-98 1997-98
1998-99 1998-99
1999-
1999-00
Indian agricultural soil

2000-01
2000-01
Nitrous oxide

2001-02
2002-03
2001-02
2003-04 2002-03
2004-05 2003-04
2005-06 2004-05
2006-07 2005-06
Methane and nitrous oxide emission from

2006-07
 Contribution of Indian agriculture towards
global methane emission

Ruminants
World
India
97%
Rice fields

Manure
Residue

Indian agriculture contributes only 3% of the

global methane emission
• Centre for environment & climate resilient
agriculture (CECRA), IARI
 Climate change and agriculture:
Needs new research facilities

Impact assessment of climate change:

Characterizing crop response to CO2
Characterizing crop response to increase in
temperature

Temperature Gradient
Tunnels

Open Top Chambers

 GWP (g CO2 eq./100 g)

0
100
200
300
400
Chapati

Bread

Paratha

Burger

Rice (Ordinary)

Rice (Basmati)

Dosa

Idli

Dal

Sambar

Potato sabzi

Cauliflower sabzi

Chiken

Mutton

Beef

Fish

Egg

Omlette

Milk

Butter

Curd
Carbon footprint of Indian food

Lassi

Apple

Banana
Pathak and Aggarwal (2009)
Carbon footprint of vegetarian and non-
vegetarian meals
1000

900

800

700
Global warming potential

600
(g CO2 eq.)

500

400

300

200

100

0
Vegetarian Vegetarian Non- Non- Non-
(without milk) (with milk) vegetarian vegetarian vegetarian
(chicken) (egg) (mutton)
Adaptation strategies to climate change

Changing land-use management

Developing climate-ready crops
Crop diversification
Improving pest management
Harnessing indigenous technical knowledge
Developing insurance and forecast systems
 For implementing mitigation and
adaptation plans: Reorient agriculture

Do things differently
Do different things
Undo the wrong doings
Conventional way of growing rice
Land preparation and rice transplanting

1 3

2 4
Land preparation for wheat
Modify rice-wheat system with resource
conserving technologies (RCTs)

No-till happy seeder

The machine directly drills seed into a

harvested field (without straw
removal/burning) in a single pass
Organic C (%) 0.8

0.7
No-tillage is a win-
0.6 Tilled win technology
No till

0.5
Wheat 2002-03

Wheat 2003-04

Wheat 2004-05

Wheat 2005-06
Initial 2002

Rice 2003

Rice 2005

Saves water, labor and energy Rice 2007

Helps early sowing

Improves soil organic C
Reduces soil compaction
Increases fertilizer use efficiency
Reduced soil erosion
 Options of modification

Change one crop of the system:

Rice-wheat to Maize-wheat
Rice-mustard
Change both the crops of the system:
Rice-wheat to Maize-mustard
Soybean-chickpea
Diversify the management:
Grow rice differently
Grow wheat differently
Grow both crops differently
 Growing rice differently

Puddled, transplanted,
continuously submerged
Aerobic rice

Direct seeded rice

More water
More labour
More methane
 Growing rice differently

Bed planting Drum Seeding Brown manuring

Growing rice differently

Paddy transplanter
Direct Seeded Rice Transplanted Rice
Wheat on Beds
on Beds on Beds

Saves 30-50% of the total irrigation time

with same or enhanced productivity
 IARI-PepsiCo project on direct-
seeded rice at Jalandhar, Punjab
1500
GWP (kg CO2 eq./ha)

Nitrous oxide
Methane
1000

500

0
Transplanted rice Direct-seeded rice

Pathak et al. (2009)

Direct dry-seeded rice is more tolerant to
water stress: Climate change adaptation

Direct dry- Puddled

seeded transplanted
 Grow different rice varieties

Waterproof rice provides flood (up Drought resilient rice out-

to 17 days) relief for farmers yield traditional varieties
Mega-varieties like A submergence tolerant
“Swarna”, grown on version of Swarna
millions of hectares, lack
submergence tolerance
Zero till wheat is more tolerant to abrupt
temperature change

Conventional Zero till

 Mitigation of nitrous oxide emission

Leaf colour chart

Urea tablet/
Nitrification inhibitor

Smart Nitrogen Management

Ladha and Pathak (2005)
 Water Saving Technologies
Laser land leveling -
A Precursor technology

Raised bed
planting

Irrigate when water is 15

cm below surface
Diversification to New Crops
New crop geometry
Guiding principal for future soil research

‘Carbon’ is the centre of the problem and

also of the solution
• Carbon in pedosphere (soil) and
biosphere (plant, animal) is excellent

• In atmosphere it is a greenhouse gas

Most oxidized form: CO2

Most reduced form: CH4

j2_ch4

Both are greenhouse gases

What is the problem?
Removal of C from fields
How to manage soil carbon?

Conservation agriculture
Conservation agriculture (CA) for climate change
mitigation and adaptation
Conventional CA
1. No-tillage

2. Laser land leveling

3. Direct seeding of rice

4. Leaf colour chart for N

5. Crop diversification
 A good tillage technology alone does not work

Soil
Weather
Weather texture,
Land use
Land use
Rainfall, salinity, sodicity, Area under
temperature, solar fertility agriculture and
radiation other activities

PlantPlant
& pests Animals
Animals
Crops/ varieties,
Crops/
crop x pest
Agricultural Cows/
Cows/
buffaloes/
varieties, buffaloes/
interactions
GxE
GxE
Production hybrids
hybrids

Socio-
Socio- Production
Production
Agronomic
Agronomic
economic
economic technology
technology
labour, machinery,
inputs
inputs irrigated, rainfed,
seeds,FYM,
seeds, FYM,
capital, markets, mechanized/
costs and returns irrigation, organic
fertilizers, biocides

The whole production system needs upgradation

 Rural Livlihoods - Resources
The livelihoods of the rural poor are directly
dependent on environmental resources.

land Water Forests Energy

Are vulnerable to weather and climate

variability
groundwater forest
water stress soil fertility
levels habitats
increases declines
recede disappear.
 Rural Poor Paying
the most
Climate change will
only exacerbate the
vulnerabilities of the
rural poor. As
climate-sensitive,
natural ecosystems
deteriorate,
subsistence will slip
further out of reach.
 Climate Change /
Variability in Semi-arid
regions

Precipitation is less than

potential evapo-
transpiration.

Low annual rainfall of 25 to

60 centimeters and having
scrubby vegetation with
short, coarse grasses; not
completely arid.
Field level interventions
ACTIVITY

CAPACITY
DEVELOPMENT

FACILITATION RESEARCH
GSBC PROJECT
INTEGRATED APPROACH
 Biocharculture
Biocharculture is the process of using Biochar,
including cultivation of crops
• Biochar is the charcoal produced from carbonaceous
source material. Sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide in
terrestrial ecosystems
• Biocharculture is one of the means to integrate for
sustainable cultivation and carbon sequestration.
• Biochar is usually produced at around temperatures 300
to 600 degrees centigrade for example as found in the
common biomass cook stoves.
• Because of its macromolecular structure dominated by
aromatic C, Biochar is more recalcitrant to microbial
decomposition than uncharred organic matter
 Biocharculture Adaptation
benefits
Lessen the impact of
Securing the crop hazardous pesticides
Reclaim the water and complex chemicals
from drought and
degraded soils, conservation, & to reduce plant
climate variabiiity
uptake.

reducing Conversion of
emissions and crop residue into
increases in C, N,
increasing the Biochar an option Increase in crop
pH, and available
sequestration of and address yield
P to the plants
greenhouse carbon
gases sequestration

Increase in the
Reduction in
Impacts of Temperature soil microbes /
leaching of the bio
Biochar last more regulation in the worms at the
/ chem fertilizers
than 1000 years. soil biochar and soil
applied
interface
CONTROL AND BIOCHAR -
OKRA
Farmers focus
80% ON CROP
20% ON SOIL
BIOCHAR COMPOST
MAGH SERIES BIOCHAR PRODUCING
STOVES
WAT E R – L E S S
PLANTS
 Strategies to be followed in designing adaptations
Adaptation Initiatives Requirement
Objective
1 Better ➢ SMC conservation - Support for
management of ➢ Addition of OM (compost, Labor Cost
soil moisture manures)
➢ Cover crop, mulching, - Biomass
residue incorporation availability

2 Efficient use of ➢ Minimising the ground - Credit support

Ground water water usage for critical
irrigation. - Community
➢ Social regulations to support
control competitive
digging of bore wells

Increasing ➢borewell and tanks - Comm.support

efficiency of - Technical
water use support
➢Micro-irrigation methods - Credit/financial
(drips, spriklers) support
 Adaptation Initiatives Requirement
Objectives
3 Diversify ➢ Crop diversification from - Drought , stress r
resistant varieties
crop / farm wheat, paddy to
millets, Maize, Sorghum
systems - Timely availability of
➢ Mono cropping to seeds, contingency
intercropping, mixed seeds
cropping
- Credit for seeds
➢ Soil fertility improvement
through cropping systems - CB on technology

➢Encouraging horticulture - Good planting material

➢Biomass improvement/ - Timely availability of

integration of Multi-Purpose Trees implements
➢Improved implements
- Timely availability of
➢Easing bullock constraint drought power
- Marketing support
 Adaptation Initiatives Requirement
Objectivr
4 Strengthening ➢ Health care system for - Support for man
preventive diseases power
livestock
➢ Strengthening sheep
production and goat systems - Technical
system Strengthening support
Fisheries production
5 Promoting ➢ Promoting back yard - Credit support
poultry
alternate
➢ lamb rearing - Technical
livelihood actvity support
activities for
income
6 Creating ➢ Community managed - Infrastructure
fodder banks
Buffers
➢ Seed Banks to maintain - Capacity
buffer seed and seeds of Building
contingent crops - Manpower
 International Response to Climate Change
– The international political response to Climate Change began at the Rio
Earth Summit in 1992, where the ‘Rio Convention’ included the
adoption of the UN Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
– This convention set out a framework for action aimed at stabilising
atmospheric concentrations of GHGs to avoid “dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system.” The UNFCCC which entered into
force on 21 March 1994, now has a near-universal membership of 195
parties.
– The main objective of the annual Conference of Parties (COP) is to review
the Convention’s implementation. The first COP took place in Berlin in
1995 and significant meetings since then have included;
o COP3 where the Kyoto Protocol was adopted,
o COP11 where the Montreal Action Plan was produced,
o COP15 in Copenhagen where an agreement to succeed Kyoto
Protocol not realised,
o COP17 in Durban where the Green Climate Fund was created.

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 The 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21)
• In 2015 COP21, also known as the 2015 Paris Climate Conference, for the first
time in over 20 years of UN negotiations, the 195 countries met to achieve a legally
binding and universal agreement on climate, with the aim of keeping global warming
below 2°C.
• France played a leading international role in hosting this seminar
conference, and COP21 was one of the largest international
conferences ever held in the country.
• The conference attracted close to 50,000 participants including
25,000 official delegates from government, intergovernmental
organisations, UN agencies, NGOs and civil society.
• This was also the largest number of Heads of State and
Government ever hosted in the history of France: over 150
Heads of State and Government from around the world
(including Barack Obama from the U.S., Xi Jinping from China,
Narendra Modi from India and Vladimir Putin from Russia).
• 117 Ministers responsible for international climate
negotiations attended the High-Level Segment at the start of the
second week.
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 Demand by Farmers Constituency for Inclusion of ‘Agriculture’ in
the Paris Agreement
– At COP21 Farmers Constituency and other stakeholders wanted to
ensure that ‘agriculture’ was part of the agreed text.
– These included; the World Farmers’ Organization (WFO), Southern
Africa Confederation of Agricultural Unions (SACAU), Pan African
Farmers’ Organization (PAFO), Food Agriculture and Natural
Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN) as well as NGOs,
CSOs and other stakeholders in the Climate Smart Agriculture
Alliance, who were supporting, promoting and driving the campaign.
– Their take was that the risks posed by Climate Change threaten the
ability of farmers to feed a growing global population.
– Achieving food security is part of the UN’s Sustainable Development
Goals (SDGs) which requires physical and economic access to
sufficient, safe and nutritious food.
– The risks posed by a changing climate also threaten the
development of the economies of our rural areas.
– In many cases, those who have contributed the least to global
warming are the ones set to suffer the most from its harmful
effects. 90
 Outcomes of COP21

• To the disappointment of the Farmers Constituency ‘agriculture’

did not make it into the final Paris Agreement.
• It only refers indirectly to agriculture. In the non-binding part of
the Agreement ‘food security and production’ were mentioned
in the COP21 Chair’s summing-up and the terms ‘food
security’ and ‘food production.’
• In the preamble, the Agreement “recognises the fundamental
priority of safeguarding food security and ending hunger, and
the particular vulnerabilities of food production systems to
the adverse impacts of climate change”
• The purpose of the Agreement, states an aim to strengthen
the global response to the threat of climate change by
“increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of
climate change and foster climate resilience and low
greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that
does not threaten food production”

91
The measures agreed include:
• To peak greenhouse gas emissions as soon as
possible and achieve a balance between sources and
sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this
century.
• To keep global temperature increase "well below" 2°C
and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C (2.7°
Fahrenheit) over pre-industrial levels by the end of the
21st century.
• To review progress every five years.

92
The Paris Agreement implications for Smallholders
• According to Thomson Reuters Foundation, reactions on how the Pairs
Agreement relates to farmers there have varied from the negative, hopeful
to the optimistic. Here are some examples:
• The FAO welcomed the Paris Agreement, noting that for the first time
ever, food security features in a global climate change accord.
• Kanayo F. Nwanze, President of the International Fund for
Agricultural Development (IFAD), said ‘‘this was a good springboard for
approaching top decision makers in developing countries about protecting
their farmers from climate change.
• "Climate finance needs to include agriculture as a key sector, and support
countries to implement the plans they have laid out," said CCAFS Director
Bruce Campbell.
• Giza Gaspar Martins, Chair of the group of 48 Least Developed
Countries at the two-week talks, said the Paris deal would "move the
world to a 1.5 degrees goal, while aiming to leave no-one behind".
• "This deal offers a frayed lifeline to the world's poorest and most
vulnerable people," said Helen Szoke, Chief Executive of aid agency
Oxfam Australia.

93
• In Malawi Climate Change is real and impacts on the lives of
more than 90% of the population which depends on agriculture,
forestry and fishing for their livelihoods.
• Malawi is particularly vulnerable to Climate Change and
variability because we have rain-fed agriculture which drives the
economy.
• Irrigation is practiced on less than 10% of the land.
• Observed changes in climate include a shift in the rainfall
season, with later onset and early cessation, as well as increases
in the length of the dry season and reductions in the length of the
growing season.
• Expected increases in the frequency and severity of extreme
events such as floods and storms will increase the hazards faced
by not only farmers, foresters and fishermen but the general
population.
• In 2015/2016 season the country faced intensive flooding
followed by drought which affected more than 1.1 million people,
displaced 336,000 and killed 104 people.
• This led to declaration of disaster for 15 Districts as up to
2.8million people are food insecure..
94
• Malawi has just received approval for a grant
programme of USD 12 million over 6 years from
the Green Climate Fund through the United Nations
Development Programme (UNDP).
• The programme is ‘‘Scaling Up the Use of
Modernised Climate Information and Early
Warning Systems in Malawi’’ and is targeting
about 2 million beneficiaries.
• The Malawi government will co-finance USD2m and
UNDP in Malawi will add another USD 2 million
with the objective of saving lives at risk from
climate-related disasters and enhance resilience
of vulnerable populations reliant on agricultural-
based livelihoods, many of whom are women.

95
 Conclusion
• Despite the pronouncements of doubters and naysayers, Climate
Change is real and affects not only the producers of our food
by the general population of the world.
• The ability of smallholder farmers in Least Developed
Countries to produce enough food that is safe and nutritious
is being affected by extreme weather events.
• The Paris Agreement, which takes over from the Kyoto Protocol,
provides hope for farmers to be assisted in adaptation and
mitigation against the effects of Climate Change.
• We should all do our part in our spheres of influence to ensure
that the signatories of the Paris Agreement and other
stakeholders are providing enough funding for a less fossil
fuel green economy which is more sustainable.
• Climate Change should be the concern of all not just
farmers.

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