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Voting Behaviour in Assembly Election of Varanasi: A Geographical Analysis

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Voting Behaviour in Assembly Election of Varanasi

A Geographical Analysis
1 Rohit Kumar and 2Arun K. Singh

Abstract
This study focuses on voting behaviour of the electorates in two consecutive assembly
elections of Varanasi district. Mapping the voting behaviour pattern is one of the great
significance for an electoral geographer as it depicts the level of political awareness,
consciousness and socio-economic development of that area. Voting behaviour is not
confined to the examination of voting statistics, records and computation of electoral shifts
and swings; it also involves an analysis of individual’s psychological processes (perception,
emotion and motivation) and their influence on political decision.
In this paper the main objective is to examine the voting behaviour pattern and to study the
factors responsible for the spatial changes in voting pattern as well as voting behaviour from
one constituency to another in the two consecutive assembly elections of 2012 and 2017.The
study is based on secondary data collected from the Election Commission of India and other
published and unpublished sources.
Keywords: electoral geography, voting behaviour, pattern, constituency, voters.

Introduction
Free and fair elections on regular interval are the lifeline of democracy. In India, which is one
of the largest democratic country, the elections are regularly held in every five years at three
level as national level (parliamentary elections), State level(assembly elections) and local
level (Panchayati Raj Institutions, self-governing bodies under State Governments).Voting is
very popular and important phenomena in electoral system. Voting is a means of expressing
the voters’ approval or disapproval of government decisions, policies and programmes, the
policies and programmes of various political parties and qualities of candidate who are
engaged in electoral process for being the representatives of people. In other words, Voting
refers to the function of electing representatives by casting votes in elections. Palmer (1976)

1
Research Scholar, Dept. of Geography, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi-221005,
rrohitkumar802@gmail.com
2
Supervisor and Professor of Geography (MMV), Dept. of Geography, Banaras Hindu
University, Varanasi-221005, aksingh.mmv@bhu.ac.in
 2

has pointed out that voting is the most common and the most widely discussed form of
political participation related to the electoral process. Singh and Sinha (2014) discuss the
situation which inspire and influence the voters to exercise their right to vote in favour or
against a particular candidate is called voting behaviour. Plano and Riggs (1973) had pointed
out that “Voting Behaviour, is a field of study concerned with the ways in which people tend
to vote in public elections and reasons why they vote as they do”. Voting behaviour is not
confined to the examination of voting statistics, records and computation of electoral shifts
and swings. It also involves an analysis of individual psychological processes (perception,
emotion and motivation) and their relation to political action as well as of institutional
patterns, such as the communication process and their impact. Identification of the spatial
patterns and trends of voter turnout can be used as effective tools to assess the level of
political awareness in the regions. Voting turnout is measured as the percentage of registered
voters in each constituency who actually exercise their voting right at the time of election.
The study of political participation is important because it can potentially lend insight into the
extent of citizen support for a political system (Dixit 1988). A higher voting turnout in the
elections held in recent years, indicate greater participation of people in assembly elections.
The increasing voting turnout is also an indicator of growing interest of people in politics
now compared to the past.
Varanasi district is divided into two parliamentary constituencies and eight assembly
constituencies of which three assembly constituencies’ fall in the municipal area. Whole city
constituencies have been dominated by Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) for a long time. The voting
turnout under the district varies from one constituency to another, and party wise vote share
also fluctuates from one constituency to another. Assembly election of 2012 had indicated the
variation of vote share and wining position of overall parties. There were five major parties;
Indian National Congress (INC), Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)
Samajwadi Party (SP) and Apna Dal (AD) and a large number of small parties contesting
against each other. Assembly election of 2017 illustrated the different pattern of party
performance, voting turnout and the vote share of the parties. During 2017 election, except
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the major parties have made alliance with each other;
Samajwadi Party (SP) – Indian National Congress (INC) and Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) –
Apna Dal (AD), Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP). The average voting turnout in the
district was 57.4 Per cent in 2012 assembly elections, 61.6 per cent in 2017. The increasing
voting turnout in 2017 assembly election, over the previous assembly election derived to
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conclusion that the people of the district are gradually being more aware about their
responsibility, rights and the value of their votes.

Objectives
This paper is being written keeping in mind the following objectives
 To examine the patterns of voting behaviour, for two consecutive assembly elections
(2012-2017) in Varanasi district.
 To identify the causes, which are responsible for rapidly increasing base of Bhartiya
Janta Party in Varanasi district in 2017.

Data base and methodology

The paper is based on secondary sources of data taken from the official reports of the
Election Commission of India, periodicals and magazines, journals and other government
and non-government sources. The Electoral data (voting data) have been taken from Election
Commission of India, Election Commission of Uttar Pradesh and other sources where the
data are available. Cartographic maps have been prepared using QGIS and Arc GIS software.
Newspapers have been referred for local issues in the district which are playing important
role in the assembly elections.

Study area
Varanasi is one of the eastern districts of Uttar Pradesh, which is political and cultural control
point of Purvanchal region, most diversified from socio-economic, cultural and geographical
point of view, which are determinants of political attitude and voting behaviour. Each group
has its own political perception, behaviour, identity and attitude. It falls in Middle Ganga
Plain and covers an area of 1535.0 sq. km. Located between 25015’ to 25034’ North Latitude
and 82050’to 83015’ East longitude, the region is bounded by Sant Ravidas Nagar (Bhadohi)
district in the west, Jaunpur in the north and west, Ghazipur in the north-east, Chandauli
district from the east and Mirzapur district from the south. The sacred river Ganga flows
across the district in semi-circular shape. The district comprises three tehsils Varanasi, Raja
Taalab and Pindara, 702 Gram Sabhas and 1295 villages in the district. In Census 2011 the
district covered 5 statutory Towns and 34 census towns. Though agriculture is the mainstay,
animal husbandry plays significant role as it supplements the income of farmers. The district
has a good industrial base with infrastructure. Varanasi has long been famous for Handicrafts
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works. Even in ancient time the art of weaving, elegant silk fibres with thread of Gold and
Silver was at its boom. Silk weaving industries, Jari and Jardozi works have great demand in
the international market.

Result and discussion

Analysis of voting pattern always focuses on the determinants of why people vote and how
do they arrive at the decision they make. During the time of election, generally it is a norm
that voters vote on the basis of their political loyalty and affinity. The local, regional and
national elections differ from the point of issues base, and the preference of voters differs
from one level to another level of elections. The voters tend to elect those candidates who
seem more capable to contribute in providing basic amenities and development.

Fig.2 (A)
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Fig.2 (B)
The winning position of the major parties in the district, reveals the constituency wise spatial
as well as temporal variation. In 2012, assembly election Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) had won
three seats Varanasi North, Varanasi South and Varanasi Cantt out of eight assembly seats.
Bhaujan Samaj Party (BSP) had won two assembly seats (Ajagara and Shivpur) in which one
seat was reserved for Schedule Caste and one seat each was won by Samajwadi party (SP),
Indian National Congress (INC) and Apna Dal (AD) (Fig.2A). The assembly election of
2017, showed the different result. All the major parties had contested election with pre poll
alliance excluding Bhaujan Samaj Party (BSP). Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) had made alliance
with Apna Dal (AD), Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP) and Samajwadi Party (SP) with
 6

Indian National Congress (INC). (Fig.2.B). The last parliamentary election (2014) result was
in favour of BJP and its alliance because it has clean sweep the entire rival parties and setup
the monopoly in all the constituencies of the district

Fig.3 (A,B)
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The number of contestants was varying from one constituency to other and one election to
other in the district. We find a decrease in the total number of contesting candidates for the
last two consecutive elections148 in 2012 and 127 in 2017 at the district level and the same is
true in the four constituency level. The main reason for declining contestants was pre-election
alliance of the major parties in the district. (Fig.3.A,B)
Table.1: Voter turnout in per cent in Varanasi district 2012-17

Election 2012 Election 2017 Swing from 2012 -2017

Voter Male Female Voter Male Female Voter Male Female

Name of Turnout Voter Voter Turnout Voter Voter Turnout Voter Voter
S.N.
constituency Turnout Turnout Turnout Turnout Turnout Turnout

1 Pindara 56.29 51.43 62.20 59.67 54.14 65.96 3.38 2.71 3.76
2 Ajagara 59.98 57.44 63.10 65.26 62.25 68.48 5.28 4.81 5.38
3 Shivpur 62.80 62.58 62.09 66.77 66.38 66.91 3.97 3.80 4.82
4 Rohaniya 60.24 61.19 59.10 61.64 61.60 61.28 1.40 0.41 2.18
5 Varanasi 52.17 55.88 47.54 59.20 60.63 57.12 7.09 4.75 9.58
North
6 Varanasi 55.38 61.96 47.14 63.58 66.42 59.82 8.20 4.46 12.68
South
7 Varanasi 51.65 55.11 47.29 55.20 54.79 53.91 3.55 -0.32 6.22
Cantt

8 Sevapuri 62.09 59.22 65.66 64.85 61.92 68.01 2.76 -0.17 3.23

9 Average 57.36 57.92 56.54 61.61 60.75 60.40 4.25 2.83 3.86
Source: www.eci.nic/ accessed on 21. 07. 2017
There is an increase of 4.25 per cent in the voter turnout at district level and the same is true
at constituency level in 2017. However a slight decrease of -0.17 per cent in male voter
turnout is reported in Varanasi Cantt as compared to 2012 election.. The possible reasons of
increased voter turnout are the outcome of Election Commission role which has conducted
various exercises and activities like cricket match, street plays, rallies and awareness
campaign for more than one month to increase the polling percentage. But due to pre poll
 8

alliance of the major parties, the turnout has slightly increased because cadre voters of the
parties had not enthused to use their franchised in the election. (Table: 1)
The high turnout in rural constituencies compares to urban counterparts and female to the
male has changed the traditional perception that ‘large number of urban people participates in
political activities comparison to rural one, and male are more active than female in political
activities. The possible reasons highly female participation in voting are, major contested
electoral parties had been raised a lot of woman related sensitive issues during the election
campaign, as woman insecurity, domestic violence and crime against women, and promised
to solve these major problems, and ensured them a range of women welfare, empowerment
and education related schemes and programmes would be launched after come into the
power. Bhartiya Janta Party had promised security for women and announced Anti-Romio
squad to rid girls from the bane eve testing, ruling Samajwadi party offered free bicycle for
school going girls as well as dedicated helpline rebate public transport for woman. Bahujan
Samaj Party made a pitch for providing better safety for woman through an improved and
assured law and order situation in the state (Economic Times, 09 March, 2017). The main
reason for high turnout in rural constituencies compare to urban counterparts about half
strength of urban voters preferred to stay indoors while rural folk enjoyed the voting. (Times
of India, 23 February, 2017)
Table.2: Vote margin, swing and secure vote in per cent between winning and leading
candidates from 2012 to 2017

Election 2012 Election 2017 Vote

Over
Winning Leading Vote Winner Leading Vote all
candidate candidate margin candidate candidate margin swing
Name of
S.N. vote vote vote vote 2012-
constituency
secured secured secured secured 17
1 Pindara 29.31 24.20 5.11 44.97 26.68 18.29 13.18
2 Ajagara 32.35 31.23 1.12 38.52 28.70 9.82 8.70
3 Shivpur 36.45 19.59 6.86 48.64 24.75 23.89 17.03
4 Rohaniya 30.22 21.03 9.19 51.77 26.91 24.86 15.67
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5 Varanasi 26.49 25.20 1.29 51.20 31.12 20.08 18.79

North
6 Varanasi 38.22 29.09 9.13 51.89 42.23 9.66 0.53
South
7 Varanasi 32.05 24.94 7.11 58.46 31.42 27.04 19.93
Cantt
8 Sevapuri 31.87 20.71 11.16 50.48 26.47 24.01 12.85
Source: www.eci.nic accessed on 21. 07. 2017
The margin of vote per cent between winning and leading candidates fluctuate from one
constituency to another as well as from one election to other. The margin of vote percentage
of winning candidates has increased over a period of time (2012 to 2017). Whereas in 2012
the highest margin of vote between winning and leading candidates was in Sevapuri
constituency 11.16 per cent, and the lowest was in Varanasi North 1.29 per cent, it has
rapidly increased in 2017 and was highest in Varanasi Cantt 27.04 per cent and the lowest
was recorded in Varanasi South 9.66 per cent. The highest total votes were secured by
winning candidates in Varanasi south 32.05 per cent and lowest in Shivpur 26.45 per cent in
2012 whereas in 2017 maximum votes have been secured by winner candidate in Varanasi
Cantt 58.46 percent and minimum was in Ajgara 38.52 per cent (Table: 2).
The performance of major parties has shown variation in two consecutive elections i.e. 2012
and 2017, from one constituency to other in Varanasi. The average vote share of major
parties during 2012 had varied from one political party to other. The average vote share of
Bahujan samaj Party (BSP), was 20.68 per cent, Samajwadi Party (SP) 20.18 per cent, Indian
National Congress (INC) 18.68 per cent, Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) 16.6 per cent and Apna
Dal (AD) 11.33 per cent in Varanasi. In 2012 assembly election, Bahujan Samaj Party had
secured maximum vote share in Ajagara constituency 32.35 per cent. This constituency is
reserved for Schedule Caste candidates and the lowest share of the party was in Varanasi
south 5.84 Per cent. In five constituencies the party had secured vote share more than
average, and rest of the three constituencies it has not secured equal to the average vote share
(20.68 per cent) in Varanasi. Samajwadi Party which had secured absolute majority in U.P.
election in 2012, the vote share performance was not much better than Bahujan samaj Party
(BSP) in the district. The average vote share of Samajwadi Party (SP) was 20.18 per cent
which was slightly (0.50 per cent) less than Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The highest vote
share of Samajwadi Party (SP) was in Sevapuri 31.87 per cent and lowest in Varanasi south
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9.67 per cent. In four constituencies the party vote share had crossed the average vote share
and remaining four constituencies it had not reached to the average (20.18 per cent) vote
share in the district.

Fig.4

Indian National Congress which is the oldest political party of India, the average vote share
of the party was 18.38 per cent in Varanasi district in 2012. The highest vote share of the
party was in Pindara constituency 29.31 per cent and lowest was in Ajagara constituency 5.94
per cent. In three constituencies the party had secured above the average vote share and rest
of five constituencies the vote share of the party could not reach equal to average 18.38 per
cent vote share in the district. (Table.5)The average vote share of Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP)
was 16.60 per cent in Varanasi district. The highest vote share of the party was in Varanasi
south constituency 38.22 per cent and lowest in Pindara constituency 1.84 per cent. In three
constituencies, which are urban dominant, the vote share of the party was high as the average
vote share, and remaining under five constituencies the party could not secure the average
vote share (16.60 per cent) in the district. Apna Dal which had emerged as the major party in
the district since 2012, contested only six assembly seats out of eight in the district, the
average vote share of the party in Varanasi was 11.33 per cent. The highest vote share of the
party was in Rohaniya constituency 30.22 per cent and lowest in Varanasi Cantt constituency
1.00 per cent. In three constituencies the party had secured vote share above the average, and
 11

rest of three constituencies the party had not reached to average 11.33 per cent vote share in
the district (The party had contested only in six assembly seats) Fig.4

Fig. 5
The strategy of contesting election of major parties, during 2017 assembly election has been
completely changed. Other than Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), all the major parties
(Samajwadi Party, Indian National Congress, Bhartiya Janta Party, and Apna Dal) have made
pre poll alliance on the basis of assembly seats agreement. Samajwadi party (SP) alliance
with Indian National Congress (INC), Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) has made partnership with
small regional parties, Apna Dal (AD) and Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP). The vote
share of Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) and its alliance (+) has rapidly increased as compared to
previous assembly election. The average vote share of Bhartiya Janta party (BJP+) has
reached 49.46 per cent in the Varanasi district. This figure shows about 7.00 per cent high if
compared with the state average vote share of the party. The party and its alliance, secured
highest vote share in the Varanasi city and its surrounding area. In city, all the three
constituencies Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) vote share was more than 50 per cent, and the share
declined as we move from urban areas to rural one. In reserved constituency, Ajagara, the
vote share of the party and its alliance is lowest. The maximum vote share of the party has
been found in Varanasi Cantt. 58.46 per cent, and minimum in Ajagara constituency 38.32
per cent. Under five constituencies Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP+) have secured above to
average vote share, and rest of three it has not secured equal to the average vote share 49.46
 12

percent in the district. The second pre poll alliance was made between Samajwadi party (SP)
and Indian National Congress (INC). Samajwadi party (SP) was in the power with absolute
majority in Uttar Pradesh for the last five years (2012-17), but the performance of Samajwadi
party (SP) was not as per expectation in Varanasi district in last election 2012. In 2017
assembly election, the average vote share of Samajwadi party (SP) and its alliance (+) was
(20.18 per cent) in the district which was less than half of Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP+) and its
alliance parties. The highest vote share of the Samajwadi Party (SP+) and its alliance was
31.87 per cent in sevapuri and lowest was in Varanasi south 9.67 per cent. The vote share in
four constituencies out of eight, was below and rest of four constituencies, it has reached
above the average vote share (20.18 per cent) in the district. Bahujan Samaj party (BSP)
which has fray in 2017 assembly election without alliance, the average vote share of the party
has recorded 15.73 per cent in the district, and it has declined 4.95 per cent comparison to
previous election. Bahujan Samaj party (BSP) which is known as Schedule Caste dominant
party, could not secured highest vote share in reserved constituency in 2017 assembly
election. The highest vote share of the party was in Pindara constituency 26.68 percent and
the lowest was in Varanasi south 3.32 per cent. Under four constituencies out of eight the
vote share of the party was above and remaining four constituencies the vote share was below
to the average 15.73 per cent vote share in the district. (Fig.5)
Reasons of increasing support base of Bhartiya Janta Party in Varanasi

Bhartiya Janta Party, the ruling party increased their influence in rural areas in 2017 assembly
election. During 2012 assembly election, the party had won only three seats out of eight that
too in the urban areas and the average vote share of the party was 1.43 per cent, while in 2017
the influence of Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) has rapidly expanded. The party vote share,
performance, seats and margin of votes between winner and leading candidates have
massively improved. There are several reasons why and how the party has succeeded to
expanse its influence in the rural areas.

Campaign Strategy The campaigning strategy of Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) was successful
in managing the votes in favour of party and their candidates. These strategies include door to
door campaign, roadshow and election rallies by top party leaders which has direct bearing
on the voting behaviour of the people.
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Modi Upsurge In Varanasi, a part of voters have not been in favour of representative or
party, most of them votes for Modi, the slogan was famous in the district, in 2014
parliamentary election and 2017 assembly election, Har Har Modi, Ghar Ghar Modi.

Social Engineering Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) has done some social engineering working on
caste line as is evident in selection of the candidates, state party leadership (party president)
and chose of rally spots and, the party has set target on the large vote banks from non-Yadav
Other Backword Class (OBC) to non- Jatav Dalit in the district. The party tried to attract
whole backward, Dalit, and marginalized people in its favour. The party expanded its base in
the rural areas and linked its affiliation with the farmers, labours, and other rural poor people.
To expand support among the Other Backword Class (OBC), the party alliance Suheldev
Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP) and Apna Dal (AD), and had selected party state President
Keshav Prasad Maurya during assembly election. These are the example of social
engineering of BJP and for this reason party succeeded to increase their influence in the
District.

Anti-incumbency wave, internal conflict amongst Samajwadi Party leaders and

leadership crisis of Indian National Congress Pre poll alliance has become a common
feature in contemporary Indian political system. However, in case of U.P. election 2017 the
alliance with Samajwadi Party (SP) and Indian National Congress (INC) proved to be fatal
because of anti – incumbency factor internal conflict in Samajwadi Party (SP) for power
politics and weak leadership and weakening party base of Indian National Congress (INC)
even grass root level workers of both the parties now each other with suspicious eyes. The
core voters of both parties, Samajwadi Party (SP) and Indian National Congress (INC) was
not comfortable with each other due to coalition. The core voters who were not satisfy with
the alliance, move to Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) and exercised votes against their core party
Samajwadi Party (SP) and Indian National Congress (INC) and in favour of Bhartiya Janta
Party (BJP)

Raising sentimental issues The leaders of Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) have raised some
emotive and sentimental issues like kabristan-saamsan, uncut power supply during festival
and triple talaqs are some of the fundamental issues which influenced non cadre-voters,

Nationalism The party has succeed to convince the voters in his favour on the basis of
nationalism and try to conveyed their contribution of nation building since 2014 and try to
link some issues with nation favours like Surgical strike, demonetization.
 14

None of the Above (NOTA)

One new option has been included during 2017 assembly election procedure - NOTA (none
of these above).This option has provided more liberal choice in exercising the vote of voters,
after mention this option, the rights of voters have been increased and if no candidates or
representative are favourable according to voters, they can pressed NOTA and neglect all
contestant under the constituency. The option has inspired the voters to use their right to
exercise the votes, which has playing the significance role to increasing the voting turnout.
Table.3: NOTA votes 2017

S.N Name of the constituency Number of NOTA NOTA Votes

Votes ( in per cent)
1 Pindara 2,889 1.43
2 Ajagara 2,350 1.08
3 Shivpur 812 0.36
4 Rohaniya 2,190 0.95
5 Varanasi North 1,114 0.49
6 Varanasi South 457 0.26
7 Varanasi Cantt 758 0.33
8 Sevapuri 1,626 0.79
9 Total 12,201 0.71

Source: www.eci.nic accessed on 21. 07. 2017

In Varanasi, 12201 voters have opted NOTA which was a very small proportion of total
voters whom have used their right to exercise vote, it was 0.71 per cent of total voting turnout
of the district. The amount of NOTA votes have been indicate spatial variation in the district,
but it has not reached more than 1.50 per cent in any constituency of the total voting turnout
in the constituency. The highest proportion of the NOTA was pressed in Pindara
constituency; in this constituency 2889 voters have chosen NOTA option which was 1.43
percent of total voting turnouts of the constituency. The lowest amount of NOTA users was
in Varanasi south constituency, in this constituency 457 voters have been pressed NOTA
button of the voting machine which was 0.26 per cent of total turnout of the constituency.
Conclusion
 15

Analysis of the electoral data reveals that voter turnout of Varanasi has slightly (4.25 Percent)
increased as compared to previous assembly election 2012, while constituency wise turnout
pattern illustrated different picture. Increased voting turnout is the outcome of Election
Commission role which has conducted various exercises and activities like cricket match,
street plays, rallies and awareness campaign for more than one month to increase the polling
percentage. Besides the Commission’s role, other agencies like Media, Street play, intense
Campaign and roadshow of the party leaders had played significant role in creating
awareness and motivating the voters to exercise their democratic right. The increasing voting
turnout in the election is the witness of people coming out of the four walls to use their voting
right on polling day to elect their representative. This type of zeal and zest leads to an
evolvement of a functional and real democracy and powerful country. The high voting
turnout in reserved constituency reveals that the people who belong to socially isolated
groups are also equally conscious to use their voting right. The high voting turnout in rural
constituencies as compared to the urban constituencies and female high voting turnout
comparison the male, further strengthens the view that the traditional perception, that ‘urban
people participate in political activities comparison the rural one, and male are more active
than female in political activities’ has changed and the present picture indicate contrary
condition of the tradition. During the parliamentary election 2014 and after that, the attitude
and behaviour of voters have been changed during use the right of exercising vote, through
passes of time. They are gradually inclined and exercised their votes in favour of
development, local issues, anti-incumbency, employment etc. instead of castes, communal,
class, neighbourhood, relatives etc. The voter away for emotionality, propaganda, gift(money,
liquor, clothes etc), now they are gradually become rational, and hope to forthcoming
government as such policies which are support to remove the problems, unemployment,
make strong unity of country and democracy ,make the easy life to live everyone. Increasing
voting turnout reveal that, not only the behaviour of voters has been changed but also they
were illustrated highly eager to use their franchised. 2017 assembly election is witnessed of
that thing and provides the adequate evidence to prove whole thing.
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