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Brief Contents
Preface xxi
About the Authors xxv
Chapter 1 Data and Statistics 1
Chapter 2 Descriptive Statistics: Tabular and
Graphical Displays 33
Chapter 3 Descriptive Statistics: Numerical Measures 105
Chapter 4 Introduction to Probability 176
Chapter 5 Discrete Probability Distributions 222
Chapter 6 Continuous Probability Distributions 263
Chapter 7 Sampling and Sampling Distributions 296
Chapter 8 Interval Estimation 335
Chapter 9 Hypothesis Tests 375
Chapter 10 Comparisons Involving Means, Experimental Design, and
Analysis of Variance 424
Chapter 11 Comparisons Involving Proportions and a Test of
Independence 481
Chapter 12 Simple Linear Regression 520
Chapter 13 Multiple Regression 588
Appendix A References and Bibliography 639
Appendix B Tables 640
Appendix C Summation Notation online only
Appendix D Self-Test Solutions and Answers to Even-Numbered
Exercises 667
Appendix E Microsoft Excel 2013 and Tools for Statistical
Analysis 706
Appendix F Computing p-Values Using Minitab and Excel 718
Index 722
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Contents
Preface xxi
About the Authors xxv
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x Contents
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Contents xi
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xii Contents
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Contents xiii
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xiv Contents
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Contents xv
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xvi Contents
Chapter 11
Comparisons Involving Proportions and a Test of
Independence 481
Statistics in Practice: United Way 482
11.1 Inferences About the Difference Between Two Population
Proportions 483
Interval Estimation of p1 2 p2 483
Hypothesis Tests About p1 2 p2 485
11.2 Testing the Equality of Population Proportions for
Three or More Populations 489
A Multiple Comparison Procedure 495
11.3 Test of Independence 500
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Contents xvii
Summary 508
Glossary 508
Key Formulas 508
Supplementary Exercises 509
Case Problem 1 A Bipartisan Agenda for Change 514
Appendix 11.1 Inferences About Two Population Proportions Using
Minitab 515
Appendix 11.2 Chi-Square Tests Using Minitab 516
Appendix 11.3 Chi-Square Tests Using Excel 516
Appendix 11.4 Inferences About Two Population Proportions Using
StatTools 518
Appendix 11.5 Chi-Square Tests Using StatTools 519
Chapter 12
Simple Linear Regression 520
Statistics in Practice: Alliance Data Systems 521
12.1 Simple Linear Regression Model 522
Regression Model and Regression Equation 522
Estimated Regression Equation 523
12.2 Least Squares Method 525
12.3 Coefficient of Determination 536
Correlation Coefficient 539
12.4 Model Assumptions 543
12.5 Testing for Significance 544
Estimate of σ2 544
t Test 546
Confidence Interval for β1 548
F Test 548
Some Cautions About the Interpretation of Significance Tests 550
12.6 Using the Estimated Regression Equation for Estimation
and Prediction 554
Interval Estimation 555
Confidence Interval for the Mean Value of y 555
Prediction Interval for an Individual Value of y 556
12.7 Computer Solution 561
12.8 Residual Analysis: Validating Model Assumptions 565
Residual Plot Against x 566
Residual Plot Against y^ 569
Summary 571
Glossary 572
Key Formulas 572
Supplementary Exercises 574
Case Problem 1 Measuring Stock Market Risk 580
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xviii Contents
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Contents xix
Index 722
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Contents xxi
Preface
This text is the 7th edition of ESSENTIALS OF STATISTICS FOR BUSINESS AND
ECONOMICS. With this edition we welcome two eminent scholars to our author team:
Jeffrey D. Camm of the University of Cincinnati and James J. Cochran of Louisiana Tech
University. Both Jeff and Jim are accomplished teachers, researchers, and practitioners in
the fields of statistics and business analytics. Jim is a fellow of the American Statistical
Association. You can read more about their accomplishments in the About the Authors sec-
tion that follows this preface. We believe that the addition of Jeff and Jim as our coauthors
will both maintain and improve the effectiveness of Essentials of Statistics for Business
and Economics.
The purpose of Essentials of Statistics for Business and Economics is to give students,
primarily those in the fields of business administration and economics, a conceptual intro-
duction to the field of statistics and its many applications. The text is applications oriented
and written with the needs of the nonmathematician in mind; the mathematical prerequisite
is knowledge of algebra.
Applications of data analysis and statistical methodology are an integral part of the
organization and presentation of the text material. The discussion and development of each
technique is presented in an application setting, with the statistical results providing insights
to decisions and solutions to problems.
Although the book is applications oriented, we have taken care to provide sound meth-
odological development and to use notation that is generally accepted for the topic being
covered. Hence, students will find that this text provides good preparation for the study of
more advanced statistical material. A bibliography to guide further study is included as an
appendix.
The text introduces the student to the software packages of Minitab 16 and M icrosoft®
Office Excel 2013 and emphasizes the role of computer software in the application of statistical
analysis. Minitab is illustrated as it is one of the leading statistical software packages for both
education and statistical practice. Excel is not a statistical software package, but the wide avail-
ability and use of Excel make it important for students to understand the statistical c apabilities
of this package. Minitab and Excel procedures are provided in a ppendixes so that instructors
have the flexibility of using as much computer emphasis as desired for the course. StatTools,
a commercial Excel add-in developed by Palisade Corporation, extends the range of statisti-
cal options for Excel users. We show how to download and install StatTools in an appendix
to Chapter 1, and most chapters include a chapter appendix that shows the steps required to
accomplish a statistical procedure using StatTools. We have made the use of StatTools optional
so that instructors who want to teach using only the standard tools available in Excel can do so.
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xxii Preface
Content Revisions
Descriptive Statistics—Chapters 2 and 3. We have substantially revised these
chapters to incorporate new material on data visualization, best practices, and much
more. Chapter 2 has been reorganized to include new material on side-by-side and
stacked bar charts and a new section has been added on data visualization and best
practices in creating effective displays. Chapter 3 now includes coverage of the
geometric mean in the section on measures of location. The geometric mean has
many applications in the computation of growth rates for financial assets, annual
percentage rates, and so on. Chapter 3 also includes a new section on data dashboards
and how summary statistics can be incorporated to enhance their effectiveness.
Comparisons Involving Proportions and a Test of Independence—Chapter 11.
This chapter has undergone a major revision. We have replaced the section on good-
ness of fit tests with a new section on testing the equality of three or more population
proportions. This section includes a procedure for making multiple comparison tests
between all pairs of population proportions. The section on the test of independence
has been rewritten to clarify that the test concerns the independence of two categori-
cal variables. Revised appendices with step-by-step instructions for Minitab, Excel,
and StatTools are included.
New Case Problems. We have added 7 new case problems to this edition; the total
number of cases is 25. Three new descriptive statistics cases have been added to
Chapters 2 and 3. Four new case problems involving regression appear in Chapters 12
and 13. These case problems provide students with the opportunity to analyze larger
data sets and prepare managerial reports based on the results of their analysis.
New Statistics in Practice Applications. Each chapter begins with a Statistics in
Practice vignette that describes an application of the s tatistical methodology to be
covered in the chapter. New to this edition is a Statistics in Practice for Chapter 2
describing the use of data dashboards and data visualization at the Cincinnati Zoo.
We have also added a new Statistics in Practice to Chapter 4 describing how a NASA
team used probability to assist the rescue of 33 Chilean miners trapped by a cave-in.
New Examples and Exercises Based on Real Data. We continue to make a significant
effort to update our text examples and exercises with the most current real data and ref-
erenced sources of statistical information. In this edition, we have added approximately
200 new examples and exercises based on real data and referenced sources. U sing data
from sources also used by The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Barron’s, and others,
we have drawn from actual studies to develop explanations and to create exercises that
demonstrate the many uses of statistics in business and economics. We believe that the
use of real data helps generate more student interest in the material and enables the
student to learn about both the statistical methodology and its application. The seventh
edition contains over 300 examples and exercises based on real data.
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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
Preface xxiii
Acknowledgments
We would like to acknowledge the work of our reviewers, who provided comments and
suggestions of ways to continue to improve our text. Thanks to
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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
Exploring the Variety of Random
Documents with Different Content
The destruction of the League would have been useless unless
steps were taken to prevent its revival, and to destroy, if possible,
the League in Canada. Hence the adoption of the name, address,
trade mark, etc., under which to flood Canada with publications
tending to arouse great hostility among our people. This was the
condition in which I found affairs only about ten months after I had
been elected President. The outlook was most discouraging, and
caused a great deal of anxious discussion among the stalwarts in
Toronto. We decided to summon a meeting of our most influential
men to consider the situation, and decide whether we also should
dissolve, or whether we would continue the struggle.
The meeting was held on the 3rd January, 1894, and after full
discussion it was decided to fight on, and with the assistance of Sir
John Lubbock, who had sent a communication to us asking us to co-
operate with him, to endeavour to resuscitate the League in
England.
The ninth annual meeting of the Imperial Federation League in
Canada was held in the Parliament Buildings, Ottawa, on the 29th
May, 1894, and in the notices of motion printed in the circular calling
the meeting was one by Lt.-Col. Wm. O’Brien, M.P., as follows:
Resolved, that the first step towards arriving at a system of
preferential trade within the Empire should be for the Government of
Canada to lower the customs duties now imposed upon goods
imported from the United Kingdom.
And another to the same effect by Rev. Principal George M.
Grant:
Resolved, that this League is of opinion that as a first step
towards arriving at a system of preferential trade within the Empire,
the Government of Canada should lower the Customs duties now
imposed on goods manufactured in and imported from Great Britain.
These notices exactly foreshadowed the policy adopted by Sir
Wilfrid Laurier’s Government in 1897.
Another resolution was carried to the effect that a delegation
should be elected by the Executive Committee to confer personally
with the City of London Branch and similar organisations, and agree
upon a common course of future action. Accordingly on the 6th
June, 1894, the Executive Committee appointed “Colonel G. T.
Denison President, Larratt W. Smith, Esq., Q.C., LL.D., President
Toronto Branch, George E. Evans, Esq., Hon. Secretary of the League
in Canada, John T. Small, Esq., Hon. Treasurer, H. J. Wickham, Esq.,
Chairman of the Organising Committee, J. L. Hughes, Esq., J. M.
Clark, Esq., and Professor Weldon, M.P., to be the delegation, with
power to add to their number.” Messrs. Clark, Small, and Weldon
were unable to act, and Sir Charles Tupper, then High Commissioner,
Lord Strathcona, and Lt.-Col. Septimus Denison, Secretary and
Treasurer of the London Ontario Branch, were added to the
delegation.
This was the turning point of the movement, and led to the
organisation of the British Empire League and the continuance of the
struggle for Imperial consolidation. The account of this mission, its
work in England, and the subsequent proceedings of the new
League, and the progress of the movement for Imperial Unity during
the succeeding years, will be dealt with in the following chapters.
CHAPTER XIX
. . . . . . .
This poem pointed out to Great Britain that Canada had waited
long enough for the denunciation of treaties which never should
have been made, and which were an absolutely indefensible
restriction on the great colonies.
At a meeting of the council of the British Empire League in
Canada held in May a week or two after the Annual Meeting in
Ottawa, a resolution was passed:
That the President and those members of the Canadian Branch
who are members of the Council of the League in England be hereby
appointed a deputation (with power to add to their number) from
the League in Canada to the League in the United Kingdom; and
that they be instructed to lay before the members of the Parent
League the views of the Canadian Branch on matters of national
moment, such as the organisation of a Royal Naval Reserve in the
colonies, and also to express their opinion that, as a guarantee of
the general safety of the Empire, vigorous steps should at once be
taken to provide that the British food supply should be grown within
the Empire.
The deputation consisted of the following: The Hon. R. R. Dobell,
M.P., George R. Parkin, J. M. Clark, A. McNeill, M.P., Sir Charles
Tupper, Bart., John T. Small, Sir Sandford Fleming, K.C.M.G., Lieut.-
Colonel George T. Denison, D’Alton McCarthy, Q.C., M.P., Lord
Strathcona, H. H. Lyman and J. Herbert Mason.
CHAPTER XX
I left for England via Montreal on the 31st May, 1897, and
expected to arrive in Liverpool a day or two before Sir Wilfrid Laurier,
who was to sail some days later from New York on a fast ship. We
were delayed for some days by fogs, and did not arrive in Liverpool
till after Sir Wilfrid Laurier had left that place. He had arrived in the
old world for the first time of his life, and at once fell into the hands
of the Liverpool merchants and business men, at that time generally
free traders. He had not a colleague with him and naturally was
affected by the atmosphere in which he found himself, and in his
speech at the great banquet given by the British Empire League with
the Duke of Devonshire in the chair, he made a few remarks in
reference to preferential tariffs for which he was severely criticised at
home. I joined the party at Glasgow two days later, and Sir Wilfrid,
who seemed pleased to see me, had a long talk with me between
Glasgow and Liverpool on the special train which took the party
down. On the following morning the Liverpool papers had cables
from Canada giving an account of the discussion in the Canadian
House of Commons over the cabled reports of Sir Wilfrid’s speech.
He was attacked vehemently by Alexander McNeill, our champion in
the House, on one point of his speech at Liverpool, and Sir Richard
Cartwright and his colleagues, in defending Sir Wilfrid, did so on the
ground that the reports of what he said could not be taken as
correct, and asking the House to withhold comment until the full
reports should be received. This was a desirable course to adopt, for
cable despatches have so often conveyed inaccurate impressions.
The real secret of the trouble was that in the busy rush of his
work as leader of the opposition, and then as Premier, Sir Wilfrid had
not been able really to master the question, but he soon grasped the
subject, and his later speeches were very effective. His reception by
the British people was wonderfully favourable, and the impression he
made upon them was remarkable. He stood out from all the other
Premiers—and there were eleven in all—and he was everywhere the
central and striking figure.
On the 5th July, 1897, a meeting of the British Empire League
was held in the Merchant Taylors Hall. The Duke of Devonshire was
in the chair and made an able speech welcoming the Premiers from
the colonies. He was followed by Rt. Hon. R. J. Seddon, Premier of
New Zealand, Sir William Whiteway, Premier of Newfoundland, Mr. G.
H. Reid, Premier of New South Wales, and Sir Edward Braddon,
Premier of Tasmania. Sir Wilfred Laurier had not been able to attend,
and as President of the League in Canada I was called upon to
speak. As to the treaties, I said:
I have come here from Canada to make one or two suggestions.
In the first place in reference to preferential tariffs, we have shown
you that we wish to give you a preference in our markets. (Cheers).
But treaties interfere with us in the management of our own tariff,
and I wish to emphasise the fact that some steps should be taken to
place us in absolute freedom to give every advantage we wish to our
fellow-countrymen all over the world. (Cheers.) We wish to give that
advantage to our own people, and we do not wish to be forced to
give it to the foreigner. (Hear, hear.) . . .
Now my last point is this. In Canada we have viewed with
considerable alarm the fact that the wealthiest and most powerful
nation in all history is at this moment dependent for her daily food
for three out of every four of her population upon two foreign
nations, who are, I am thankful to say, friendly to her, and who, I
hope, will always be friendly, but who, it cannot be denied, might by
some possibility be engaged in war with us at some future time.
These two nations might then stop your food supply, and that harm
to you would spread great distress among the people of our country.
I have been deputed by the League in Canada to ask you to look
carefully into this question. If there is no real danger, relieve our
fears; but if you find there is any danger let me urge upon you as
strongly as I can to take some steps to meet that danger. Let the
method be what it may, great national granaries, a duty on food, a
bounty or what not, but let something be done.
A special meeting of the Council of the League was held on the
7th July, 1897, to meet the deputation of our League. In my address
I once more dealt with the question of the German and Belgian
treaties. I said, “The Canadian people have now offered, in
connection with their desire regarding these treaties, to give what
they propose to all nations, but with the express intention of giving
an advantage to our own people. I am deputed to ask you to use
what influence you can on the Government and people of this
country to give us that full control of our own tariff to which we
contend we are entitled.”
Lord Salisbury in 1890, although favourable to the idea, was not
able to secure the denunciation of the German and Belgian treaties,
although I knew from his conversation with me that personally he
felt that they should be denounced. In 1892 Lord Knutsford
peremptorily refused a request by Canada to denounce the treaties.
Lord Ripon was not quite so peremptory in 1894-’95 after the
Ottawa Conference, but he refused permission to Mr. Rhodes to
arrange a discriminating tariff in Matabeleland. We had been held off
for six years, but the action of the Canadian Government brought
matters to a head.
During June and July, 1897, in London the most profuse and
large-hearted hospitality was shown on every hand to the colonial
visitors, and I was fortunate enough to be invited to all the large
functions. I felt the importance of taking every opportunity to press
upon the leading men in England the necessity for the denunciation
of the treaties, and I knew Sir Wilfrid Laurier could not urge it with
the freedom or force that I could. Consequently in private
conversations I talked very freely on the subject, whenever and
wherever I had an opportunity.
I found that in meeting friends, almost the first remark would be
an approving comment on the friendliness of the Canadian
Parliament in giving the British people a preference in the markets of
Canada. My reply always was that it was no more than was right,
considering all that Great Britain had done for us. This was usually
followed by the remark that the Government were afraid, from the
first impression of the law officers of the Crown, that Great Britain
would not be able to accept the favour. My reply was very
confidently, “Oh yes! you will accept it.” Then the remark would be
made that the German and Belgian treaties would prevent it. “Then
denounce the treaties,” I would say. “That would be a very serious
thing, and would be hardly possible.” My reply was, “You have not
fully considered the question, we have.” Then I would be asked what
I meant, and would reply somewhat in these terms:
Consider the situation of affairs as they stand. To-day at every
port of entry in Canada from Sydney, Cape Breton, to Victoria in the
Island of Vancouver, along 3,500 miles of Canadian frontier, German
goods are charged one-eighth more duty than goods from Great
Britain, and goods from Great Britain one-eighth less duty than on
German goods. This was being done yesterday, is being done to-day,
and will be done to-morrow, and it is done by the Government of
Canada, backed by a unanimous Parliament, and behind it a
determined and united people. We have made up our minds and
have thought it out, and have our teeth set, and what are you going
to do about it?
This did not usually bring out any indication that any clear
decision had been arrived at by them, and then I would go on:
Of course we know that you can send a large fleet to our Atlantic
ports, and another to our Pacific ports, and blockade them, paralyse
our trade, and stop our commerce, until we yield, or you may go
farther and bombard our defenceless cities, and kill our women and
children. Well, go on and do it, and we will still hold out, for we
know that any British Government that would dare to send her fleets
to jamb German goods down our throats when we want to buy
British, would be turned out of office before the ships could get
across the Atlantic. The thing is absurd, the treaties are an outrage,
and the only course out of the difficulty is to denounce them.
These arguments carried weight with all to whom I spoke, and I
spoke to Ministers, Privy Councillors on the Government side, M.P.’s,
and others. Once only the head of one of the great daily newspapers
seemed to be annoyed at my aggressive attitude, and said, “You had
better not be too sure. We might send the fleet and be very ugly
with you.” My reply was, “Well, go on and send it. You lost the
southern half of North America by trying to cram tea down their
throats, and you may lose the northern half if you try to cram
German goods down our throats. I should have hoped you had
learned something from history.”
It will be seen that the plan which was, I understand, originated
by D’Alton McCarthy, worked out very successfully. There could only
be one result, and within a month the treaties were denounced, and
I felt that the first great step of our programme had been made. The
amusing feature, however, was, that this object for which we fought
so hard three years before at the meeting at Lord Avebury’s, when
the British Empire League was founded, and which was opposed by
nearly all our English friends, was no sooner announced as
accomplished, than men of all parties and views seemed to unite in
praising the act, and the Cobden Club even went so far as to present
the Cobden Medal to Sir Wilfrid Laurier.
Sir Wilfrid Laurier in all his speeches had upheld abstract theories
of free trade, and with considerable skill succeeded in allaying the
hostility of the free trade element. This, I think, helped to secure the
denunciation of the treaties, with the approval of all parties. On my
return to Canada I was interviewed in Montreal by the representative
of the Toronto Globe. Being asked by the reporter my opinion of the
probable effect of the denunciation of the German and Belgian
treaties, I said:
The denunciation of these treaties marks an epoch in the history
of the British Empire. The power of Canada has made itself felt not
only in British but in European diplomacy. It has affected Germany,
Belgium, and other countries, and every one of these countries
knows that it was Canada’s influence that produced the result.
Another point in connection with the denunciation of these treaties
is, that it is a tremendous step towards preferential trade within the
Empire. Great Britain was going along half asleep. Canada has
awakened her, and made her sit up and think. She has been jostled
out of the rut she has been following, and is now in a position to
proceed in the direction that may be in her own interest and in that
of the Empire.
Being then asked if I had any opinions to express in regard to the
Premier’s remarks in Great Britain on the question of free trade, I
said:
His remarks were general and theoretical. The great point of the
whole movement was to secure the denunciation of the treaties.
Nothing could be done while these treaties were in existence, and in
my opinion it would have been a most indiscreet thing for Sir Wilfrid
Laurier to have pursued any line of argument that would have
aroused the hostility of the great free trade party in Great Britain.
The great point was to secure the united influence of all parties in
favouring the denunciation of the treaties, which was an important
step in advance.
Being asked to account for the fact that Sir Howard Vincent, of
the United Empire Trade League, a strong protectionist, and the
Cobden Club both united in applauding the denunciation of the
treaties, I replied:
Sir Howard Vincent and his League saw plainly that this action
made for a preferential tariff. The Cobden Club are whistling to keep
up their courage.
In the Conference of Premiers, held in 1897, it was not possible
to secure an arrangement for mutual preferential tariffs. The other
colonies were not ready for it, the Imperial Government was not
ready for it, nor were the people, but as the German and Belgian
Treaties were denounced to take effect the following year, in August,
1898, the path was cleared, and from that date the Canadian
Preference came into force, and has since been in operation.
It will be remembered that the deputation of our British Empire
League to England, in 1897, was instructed to express the great
desire of the Canadian Branch that, as a guarantee of the general
safety of the Empire, vigorous steps should at once be taken to
provide that the British Food supply should be grown within the
Empire. As chairman of the deputation I did all in my power to stir
up inquiry on the subject. Being introduced to Principal Ward of
Owens College, Manchester, when at that city, I talked freely with
him on the point, and he suggested I should discuss it with Mr.
Spencer Wilkinson, the well-known author and journalist. He gave
me a letter introducing me to Mr. Wilkinson, and we had several
interviews. Shortly after reaching London I called to see my friend
Lord Wolseley, then Commander-in-Chief. He took me with him to his
house to lunch, and as we walked over, I at once broached the
subject of the food supply, principally wheat and flour, and he told
me that the Government had been urged to look into the matter
some two or three years before, and that there had been a careful
inquiry by the best experts, and the report was that the command of
the sea was a sine quâ non, but if we maintained that, and paid the
cost which would be much increased by war prices, the country
could get all the grain they would want.
I said suppose a war with Russia and the United States, what
would be done if they combined and put an embargo on bread-
stuffs? How would it be got then even with full command of the sea?
He did not seem himself to have understood the difficulty, or studied
the figures, and said, “I cannot explain the matter. All I can say is
that the Government obtained the advice of the best men in England
on the subject, and that is their report.” My reply was, “I wish you
would look into it yourself,” and I dropped the subject.
I met Lord Roberts shortly after and I pressed the matter upon
him. He had not known of the Government report, and consequently
listened to my arguments attentively and seemed impressed, for I
may say that 1897 was the worst year in all our history as to the
manner in which the supply of food was distributed among the
nations.
Mr. Spencer Wilkinson seemed to be much interested in my talks
with him, and one day he said, “I wish you could have a
conversation with some great authority on the other side of the
question, who would understand the matter and be able to answer
you.” I replied, “That is what I should like very much. Tell me the
best man you have and I will tackle him. If he throws me over in the
gutter in our discussion it will be a good thing, for then I shall learn
something.” Mr. Wilkinson laughed at my way of putting it, and said,
“If that is what you want, Sir Robert Giffen is the man for you to
see.” I said I would try and get a letter of introduction to him. Mr.
Wilkinson said he would give me one, and did so.
I called to see Sir Robert Giffen. He received me very kindly, and
we had an interesting interview of about an hour. The moment I
broached the subject of the food supply he said at once, “That
question came up some two or three years ago, and I was called
upon to inquire into the whole matter and report upon it, and my
report in a few words was, that we must have the command of the
sea, and that once that was secured, then, by paying the somewhat
enhanced war prices, we could get all the grain required.” My reply
was, “Then, as you have fully inquired into the question, you can tell
me what you could do under certain conditions. In case of a war
between Great Britain and Russia combined with the United States,
followed by an embargo on food products, where and how would
you get your supplies?” Sir Robert said, “We do not expect to go to
war with the United States and Russia at the same time.” I said,
“You were within an ace of war with the United States only a year
ago over the Venezuelan difficulty, and Great Britain and Russia have
been snarling at each other over the Indian Frontier for years, and if
you go to war with either, you must count on having the other on
your hands.”
Sir Robert then said, “But I said we must have the command of
the sea.” I replied, “I will give you the complete, undoubted,
absolute command of the sea, everywhere all the time, although you
are not likely to have it; and then in case of an embargo on wheat
and foodstuffs where are you to get your supplies?” He said, “We
would get some from Canada and other countries.” I pointed out
that all they sent was only a fraction. Sir Robert then said, “They
could not put on an embargo, for it would ruin their trade.” I told
him that I was talking about war and not about peace and trade,
and said that no desire for trade induced the Germans to sell wheat
to Paris during the siege of 1870. His idea had been that, in case of
war with Russia or the United States, or both, holding the command
of the sea, Great Britain would allow foodstuffs to be exported to
neutral countries such as Belgium or Holland, and then England
would import from those countries. My answer to that was, that if
England had the command of the sea, the United States or Russia
would have only one weapon, an embargo, and they would certainly
use it. He seemed cornered in the argument, and said, “Well, if we
cannot get bread we can eat meat. I eat very little bread.” I said,
“The British people use about 360 lbs. per head of wheat per
annum, and about 90 lbs. of meat, and a great deal of meat would
be stopped too”; and I said on leaving, “I wish you would investigate
this thoroughly again, and let the Government know, for I know they
are depending upon your report at the War Office”; and then I left
him.
When at Liverpool shortly after on my way back to Canada, I
asked the manager of the Bank of Liverpool, to whom I had a letter
of introduction, if he would introduce me to the highest authority on
the corn trade in Liverpool. He introduced me to the late Mr. Paul,
ex-President of the Corn Exchange, and I had a long conversation
with him on the question of the food supply. As soon as I mentioned
the subject he told me that the corn trade people in Liverpool had
been asked from London to make a report on the possibility of
supplying grain in case of war. Mr. Paul told me that they had
considered the matter (I suppose he meant the leading corn
merchants), and that their report was practically that they must have
the command of the sea, that was essential; but that secured, and
the enhanced war prices paid, they could supply all the corn
required in any contingency. I questioned him as I had Sir Robert
Giffen and found the same underlying belief. The law of supply and
demand would settle the question. The corn would be allowed to go
in neutral ships to neutral ports, and then be transhipped to
England. An embargo had not been considered or treated seriously
as a possibility, and when I cornered him so that he could not
answer my arguments, he said, “Well, if we could not get wheat we
could live on potatoes.” I told him potatoes could not be kept over a
year, that a large quantity was imported which would be stopped. I
said he had better make another report. The whole thing was very
disheartening to me, for I saw how the Government were depending
upon peaceful traders for information how to guard against war
dangers.
In 1902 when Sir Michael Hicks-Beach, then Chancellor of the
Exchequer, proposed a small tax on wheat and flour, I was pleased
to see that Sir Robert Giffen was the first prominent man to write to
the Press endorsing and approving of the bread tax, as it was called.
It showed me that Sir Robert had carefully considered the question,
and was manly enough to advocate what was not altogether a
popular idea.
After my return to Canada I prepared an article for the
Nineteenth Century on the “Situation in England,” and it appeared in
the December number, 1897. In this I pointed out the danger of the
condition of the food supply, and the article attracted a considerable
amount of attention in the British Press, in comments, notices,
letters, etc. Sir Michael Hicks-Beach in a speech at Bristol, in
January, 1898, referred to the question, and in a way contradicted
the points I had brought out in the Nineteenth Century article. My
conversations the summer before with Lord Wolseley, Sir Robert
Giffen, and Mr. Paul had so alarmed me at the false security in which
the Government were resting, that when I saw Sir Michael Hicks-
Beach relying on the same official reports, I determined, although I
had never met him, to write him direct, and on the 20th January,
1898, I wrote, drawing his attention to a remark which he was
reported to have made that “in any war England would have many
friends ready to supply corn,” and I said, “Our League sent a
deputation to England last summer to draw attention to the danger
of the food supply. I was chairman of it. Since my return I published
an article in the Nineteenth Century giving our views. I enclose a
reprint which I wish you could read. If you have not time please give
me one minute to examine the enclosed diagram (cut out of the
Chicago Tribune) showing the corn export of the world. This shows
that Russia and the United States control, not including the
Danubian ports, nearly 95 per cent. of the world’s needs, and if they
were to put an embargo on the export of food of all kinds, where
would be the ‘many friends ready to supply England with corn?’”
Sir Michael Hicks-Beach, now Lord St. Aldwyn, with great
courtesy wrote me a personal letter, in which he thanked me for my
letter, and went on to say:
I do not think that the sentence you quote “that in any war
England would have many friends ready to supply corn” quite
accurately represents what I said on that subject. The report was
necessarily much condensed. But it would be true if (say) we were
at war with the United States alone: or if we were at war with one or
more of the European Powers and the United States were neutral. In
either of such cases the interests of the neutral Powers in access to
our market would be so strong, that our enemy would not venture to
close it to them, in the only possible way, viz.: by declaring corn
contraband of war. And I think that if the United States were the
neutral party, self-interest would weigh more with them than their ill
feeling towards us, whatever the amount of that feeling may be.
It is possible, though most improbable, that the two great corn-
producing countries might be allied against us. If they were, I
believe that our navy would still keep the seas open for our supply
from other sources, though no doubt there would be comparative
scarcity and suffering. I am no believer in the enclosed diagram, the
production of corn is constantly increasing in new countries such as
the Argentine, and better communication is also increasing the total
amount available for export. Bad harvests in the United States and
Russia, and good ones in India and the Argentine, would show quite
another result to that shown in the enclosed, though, as I have said,
I do not believe it is true, even of the year which it professes to
represent.
On receipt of this letter I wrote to Mr. Geo. J. S. Broomhall, of
Liverpool, editor of the Corn Trade News, and author of the Corn
Trade Year Book, and received from him a certificate of the correct
figures of corn exports. I forwarded it to Sir Michael Hicks-Beach,
showing that in 1897 India and the Argentine only exported 200,000
qrs. and 740,000 qrs. respectively, and that the diagram I sent could
not have been a very great way out. In 1902 Sir Michael Hicks-Beach
put a tax of one shilling a quarter on imported wheat, and as I have
already said, Sir Robert Giffen wrote to the Times approving of it. I
was very glad to see this action on the part of both of them.
On the 4th December, 1897, the Hon. George W. Ross gave an
address before the British Empire League in St George’s Hall,
Toronto, in which he strongly favoured preferential tariffs and came
out squarely against reciprocity with the United States. This action
was a great encouragement to our cause and attracted considerable
attention all over Canada.
On the 8th December, 1897, the National Club gave a
complimentary banquet to his Excellency the Earl of Aberdeen,
Governor-General. I attended the banquet and sat second to the left
of the president of the club, Mr. McNaught. I was under the
impression that Mr. Blake, who had been a few years away from
Canada, and who had joined the Irish Nationalist party, would be
sure to speak in a strain not acceptable to our club. I mentioned this
to Dr. Parkin who sat next to me. When Mr. Blake began to speak he
very soon uttered sentiments strongly opposed to all that the
Canadians had been working for in the Imperial interest. I said to
Parkin that as an ex-president of the club, and president of the
British Empire League, I would not allow his remarks to pass without
comment. I leaned over and told the chairman I intended to speak a
few minutes when Mr. Blake finished. He raised some objection, but
I told him I must speak. He mentioned it to the Governor-General,
who said he would wait for fifteen minutes. I told Dr. Parkin I would
divide the time with him.
After Mr. Blake sat down, I said:
I have been a member of this club almost from its foundation. I
was for many years on the Board of Directors, and for some years its
President, and I feel that I should state that the speech of my friend
Mr. Blake does not represent the views nor the national aspirations
which have always been characteristic of the National Club. . . .
I agree with what Mr. Blake has said as to the importance of
preserving friendly relations with the United States. We hope to live
at peace with them, but because we do not wish to beg for
reciprocity or make humiliating concessions for the sake of greater
trade, it is no reason why we should be charged with wanting war.
We want peace, and no one can point to any instance where the
Canadian people or Government have been responsible for the
irritation. Mr. G. W. Ross pointed this out clearly in his admirable
speech of Saturday night. The great causes of irritation have come
from the United States. The invasion of 1775, the war of 1812, the
Trent affair, and the Venezuelan business were all matters in which
we were absolutely free from blame. Nor were we to blame some
thirty years ago when I had to turn out with my corps to help defend
the frontier of this province from the attacks of bands of Fenians,
organised, armed, and equipped, in the United States, who invaded
our country, and shot down some of my comrades, who died
defending Canada. These raids were maintained by contributions
from our worst enemies in the United States, but we drove them
out, and now I am glad to say that, while the contributions still go
on, the proceeds are devoted to troubling the Empire elsewhere, and
I hope they will continue to be expended in that direction rather
than against us.
I approve of Mr. Blake’s remarks about the defence of Canada,
and the expenditure of money to make our country safer, but I
object strongly to the hopeless view he takes. We are 6,000,000 of
northern men, and, fighting on our own soil for our rights and
freedom, I believe we could hold our own in spite of the odds
against us, as our fathers did in days gone by, when the outlook was
much more gloomy.
Dr. George R. Parkin followed with an eloquent and powerful
speech pointing out the various arguments which showed the
growth of the movement for Imperial unity.
It was thought at that time that Mr. Blake had some idea of
returning to Canadian politics, but the result of this meeting and the
Press comments must have put an end to any such idea if it ever
existed.
CHAPTER XXI
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