Youth Employment 2024 Outlook
Youth Employment 2024 Outlook
2024 Outlook
Glossary Contents
Youth Employment 2024 Outlook
Economic inactivity rate: the ONS: the Office for National Statistics, The politics of youth
proportion of the population (aged the UK’s largest producer of official employment 14
16 and over) who are not in work and statistics and the recognised national
have not been actively seeking work statistical institute of the UK. The ONS Young people’s outlook on
in the past four weeks and/or are not is responsible for collecting, analysing
the labour market in 2024 16
available for work in the next two and disseminating statistics about the
weeks. This can include people who UK’s economy, society and population.
Moving to better solutions
are retired, people who are out of work Unemployment rate: the proportion of for young people 19
due to long term sick, and students. the economically active population
NEET rate: the proportion of the (those in employment plus those who Methodology 22
population of young people not are unemployed) who are without a
enrolled on an education or training job, have been actively seeking work in
course, working or studying towards the past four weeks and are available
a qualification, or have not had job- to start work in the next two weeks.
related training or education in the What Works Centres: independent
last four weeks. Age ranges reported organisations that aim to improve the
for NEET data vary by source, so it is way the Government and other public
important to clarify the age group sector organisations create, share and
for any quoted NEET rate and, as far use high-quality evidence in decision-
as possible, to compare like with like. making. The What Works Network is
Through this report, unless specifically made up of nine full, independent
stated, we define NEET young people What Works Centres and three affiliate
as aged 16-24. network members.
2 3
Foreword
Youth Employment 2024 Outlook
Employment, we term youth unemployment, to persistent across government on the issues and The new Government has an
inequalities in the labour market, action policies that can help reduce opportunity to make reducing the
understand the to improve opportunities could not be the number of young people not in number of young people who are not
importance of all more important. education, employment or training
(NEET). At Youth Futures, we are
in education, employment or training a
key priority at the heart of their
young people in our This report brings together the latest building up the evidence base on the ambition for national renewal.
data and evidence on the youth most effective solutions to tackle high
country benefiting employment landscape in 2024, rates of youth unemployment and
We shouldn’t pretend there are any
easy fixes. The problem is stubborn,
from a decent including experiences of both
unemployment and economic
inactivity, but more needs to be done
persistent and complex. It requires work
to put that evidence into practice.
education, the inactivity among young people. This
While NEET rates in the UK have been
across many different parts of
government, civil society, and the
evidence spans the most up-to-date
chance to build analysis of official statistics, new data on
stubbornly high for 20 years, there is business community.
reason for optimism about what
their skills and better how the UK is performing internationally,
policymakers, businesses and
But the prize is great. Getting this
alongside recent research into voter right will not just improve the UK’s
opportunities to enter perspectives and young people’s
educational institutions can do.
competitiveness and prosperity, it will
into and thrive in own reflections on the barriers and
opportunities that exist for them to
From increasing the number of
apprenticeship opportunities that
help thousands more young people find
the pathway in life that is right for them.
4 good jobs. progress into the world of work. young people can access, and 5
Executive summary • Voters across the UK back policies to Moving to better solutions
Youth Employment 2024 Outlook
30%
Over the past three years, the percentage of young people who are NEET has been growing.
25%
People aged 16 to 24 years who are NEET as a percentage of all young people, seasonally
20%
adjusted, UK, October to December 2006 to April to June 2024
15%
18% 10%
16% 5%
0%
14%
Black African
Other Asian
background
White British
Indian
White and Black
Caribbean
Black Caribbean
Pakistani
Other White
12%
10%
8%
6%
Source: Annual Population Survey 3-year pooled data from the Office for National Statistics
4% Note: Estimates of the following ethnicities have been removed due to small sample counts of between 3 and 25 persons:
White Irish, White and Black African, Bangladeshi, Other Mixed, White and Asian, Chinese, Other Black background.
2%
0%
The data in 2024 shows that the England has the highest rate
Oct-Dec 2021
Apr-Jun 2021
Apr-Jun 2011
Oct-Dec 2011
Apr-Jun 2008
Apr-Jun 2016
Oct-Dec 2006
Oct-Dec 2008
Oct-Dec 2016
Oct-Dec 2018
Oct-Dec 2019
Apr-Jun 2007
Apr-Jun 2009
Apr-Jun 2010
Apr-Jun 2012
Apr-Jun 2013
Apr-Jun 2014
Apr-Jun 2015
Apr-Jun 2017
Apr-Jun 2018
Apr-Jun 2019
Apr-Jun 2022
Oct-Dec 2007
Oct-Dec 2009
Oct-Dec 2010
Oct-Dec 2012
Oct-Dec 2013
Oct-Dec 2014
Oct-Dec 2015
Oct-Dec 2017
Oct-Dec 2020
Jun-Sep 2023
Jan-March 2024
Apr-Jun 2020
Jan-Mar 2023
Apr-Jun 2024
NEET rate for young men is 13.5%, (15.0%), followed by the East of
compared with 10.8% for young England (13.1%), the West Midlands
women.3 Young people from (12.5%), and London (11.6%).
certain ethnic minority backgrounds
Source: Labour Force Survey from the Office for National Statistics also experience higher NEET rates in
Note: Reweighting of the Labour Force Survey from July to September 2022 caused a stepwise jump in the data
England.
1. https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/bulletins/ 3. https://data.youthfuturesfoundation.org/dashboard/neet/
8 youngpeoplenotineducationemploymentortrainingneet/august2024
2. https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/data-tables/fast-track/57739194-75a4-4ab4-be91-08dc3901786a
4. https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/participation-in-education-and-training-and-employment
9
that the odds of a young person with Toolkit, shows that apprenticeships are
Youth Employment 2024 Outlook
West Midlands
North West
Yorkshire &
The Humber
South East
North East
London
East Midlands
South West
aged 24 and under in 2017/18.
increasing numbers of young people
are experiencing mental ill health.11
From the mid-2010s to 2021, there has
Source: Annual Population Survey from the Office for National Statistics been a 42% rise in the number of young NEET rates:
people (18-24-year-olds) crossing the
looking ahead
threshold at which they are considered
The areas of England with the lowest the care system were three and a half to have a ’common mental health “With NEET rates rising over the last
proportion of NEET young people times more likely than all other children disorder’ (such as depression or few years, the data paints a worrying
are the South West (9.4%), the South to be NEET5, with the latest figures picture with the outlook for young
anxiety), with over a third (34%) of
East (9.7%), Yorkshire and the Humber indicating a NEET rate of 38%.6 people looking uncertain at best.
young people now affected.12
(9.7%), and the North West (11.2%). The Office for Budget Responsibility
Young people with special educational The Resolution Foundation and Health forecasts little improvement in
needs and disabilities (SEND) are also
Marginalised young people Foundation research suggests the unemployment rates over the next
much more likely to be out of work. impact of poor mental health on four years. The National Institute
face significant barriers to Data from the Office for National employment is significant. The analysis of Economic and Social Research
employment Statistics show that 23.9% of young found that as the share of young forecast slowly rising unemployment
people with a disability are NEET.7,8 people struggling with their mental and inactivity in a looser labour
Region, ethnicity, and gender are
market. These wider labour market
not the only factors contributing to Analysis of the Longitudinal Education health has increased over the last
conditions, alongside entrenched
fluctuation in NEET rates. Many other Outcomes (LEO) dataset shows lower decade, the number who are out of
and high levels of economic inactivity
groups of young people who face rates of employment or engagement work due to ill health has doubled (which for young people are
significant barriers in their lives are more in education and training for young - increasing from 93,000 in 2013 to connected with increasing rates of
likely to experience worklessness and people who were identified as having 190,000 in 2023. mental health issues), look set to make
fall out of education. The more barriers special educational needs while in the UK’s high NEET levels a persistent
a young person faces, the more likely school.9 This disparity is seen both
Themes in youth employment and important challenge that we
this is to be the case. shortly after young people leave in 2024: apprenticeships simply cannot ignore.”
The Independent Review of Children’s compulsory education, and over the Youth Futures’ review of the available Andrea Barry, Principal Economist,
Youth Futures Foundation
Social Care in 2022, commissioned by subsequent decade. evidence from high income countries,
the last Government, shows that young Research carried out with NatCen and published in the Youth Employment
people aged 19-21 with experiences of Youth Futures supports this, showing
10. https://youthfuturesfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/OVERLA2.pdf
5. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/640a17f28fa8f5560820da4b/Independent_review_of_children_s_social_care_- 11. https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2024/02/Weve-only-just-begun.pdf
_Final_report.pdf 12. Respondents are classified as having a ‘Common mental disorder’ if they have a General Health Questionnaire-12 score of three or
6. https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/children-looked-after-in-england-including-adoptions more.
7. https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/ 13. https://youthfuturesfoundation.org/toolkit/apprenticeships/.
adhocs/15006youngpeoplenotineducationemploymentortrainingneetbydisabilitystatusuk2018to2021 This finding is based on a meta-analysis of comparison group studies that meet the criteria for inclusion in the Youth Employment
8. https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-neet Toolkit. Unfortunately only a small number of studies examining apprenticeships fall into this category.
context
Many OECD countries have improved
their NEET rates in recent years. The large-scale technical and vocational
average NEET rate across the OECD education systems. For example,
fell from 19% in 2002, to 14.3% in 2022. Germany’s ‘dual system’ of
Over the same period the UK rate fell vocational education and training
from 15.3% to 12.5% - a slower rate of is often cited as a significant driver
The UK’s NEET rate does not exist The countries with the highest NEET
improvement. of low youth unemployment rates.18
in isolation, and understanding rates in the OECD dataset are Similarly Switzerland, which has
Turkey (33.3%), Columbia (27.8%), During the last 20 years, the main historically one of the lowest NEET
how the UK compares to others international success stories among
and Italy (26.4%). The countries rates in the OECD, has a strong
in the OECD is important for with the lowest rates, with more more comparable economies to technical education system.
policymakers. young people employed or the UK have been the Netherlands The country’s ‘Vocational and
engaged in learning, are the and Germany. The Netherlands has Professional Education and Training’
The UK sits in the middle of Netherlands (4.4%), Iceland (6.2%), reduced its NEET rate from 6.3% to system (VPET) sees heavy investment
the OECD for NEET rates Slovenia (7%), Norway (7.7%), and 4.4%, a 30% decrease. in apprenticeships from employers
The UK’s NEET rate in 2022 stood at Germany (8.9%). In Germany, the same period has seen and is a pathway for two-thirds of all
12.5%, slightly lower than the OECD the proportion of young people not young people leaving compulsory
average of 14.3%.15,16 in education, training or the labour education in Switzerland.19
market decrease by over two-fifths
(44%), from a high of 15.9% to a current
The UK’s NEET rate is slightly lower than the average of other countries in the OECD dataset
rate of 8.9%.
People aged 20 to 24 years, OECD, 2022 or latest available data Over the long term, UK GDP could
be increased by £69bn if NEET rates
60%
were reduced to the levels seen in the
50% Netherlands.17
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
United States
Greece
New Zealand
Iceland
Bulgaria
Czechia
Slovak Republic
Netherlands
Mexico
Australia
France
Austria
Switzerland
Canada
Poland
Russia
Brazil
Germany
Sweden
OECD - Average
Estonia
Ireland
Chile
United Kingdom
Colombia
Spain
Belgium
Portugal
Israel
Costa Rica
Türkiye
Denmark
Romania
Lithuania
South Africa
Latvia
Italy
Finland
Hungary
Norway
Slovenia
Source: OECD
15. Note on international comparisons: UK figures relate to the age group 16-24 unless otherwise stated. OECD figures relate to the age 17. https://impetus-org.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/publications/Young-Persons-Guarantee.pdf
12 group 20-24, so UK figures quoted in the context of the OECD may differ from domestic figures.
16 https://data.oecd.org/youthinac/youth-not-in-employment-education-or-training-neet.htm
18. https://www.pwc.co.uk/economic-services/YWI/youth-employment-index-2022.pdf
19. https://www.pwc.co.uk/economic-services/YWI/youth-employment-index-2022.pdf 13
The politics of youth Cutting youth
Youth Employment 2024 Outlook
14 20. 2,200 UK adults were interviewed by YouGov for the Youth Employment Group.
21. 2,510 young people aged 16 to 25 were interviewed by Stack Data Strategy for Youth Futures Foundation. 15
Young people’s outlook on (57%), followed by employment those who are working or studying.
Youth Employment 2024 Outlook
16 22. 2,510 young people aged 16 to 25 were interviewed by Stack Data Strategy for Youth Futures Foundation. 17
Moving to better solutions
NEET young people vs 67% of EET young a mental health condition, rising to
Youth Employment 2024 Outlook
20 21
Methodology Helping understand data
Youth Employment 2024 Outlook
22 23
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