FMCG Sector
FMCG Sector
Rapid urbanization, rising literacy, and rising per capita income have all resulted
110 in rapid development and shifts in demand patterns, resulting in an abundance of
83.3 new opportunities.
68.4
52.8
43.1 49
31.6 33.3 35.7 38.8 Industry Description
The FMCG sector is the fourth largest sector in India as per FY 2020 and
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 contributes significantly to India's GDP with the market of worth $110 billion. This
business is expected to develop at a 14 percent compound annual growth rate
Sector Composition (CAGR) until it reaches a market size of $220 billion by 2025. In India, multiple
players in both unorganized as well as organized segments operate in the FMCG
sector. Here, each product category has several brands and varieties which has
19% low consumer switching costs which leads to intense competition among players
operating in this sector.
Sector Composition
50%
FMCG Industry
31%
Household and Personal Care Products (50%) HealthCare (31%) Food & Beverages (19%)
Oral Care, Skin Care Over the Counter (OTC) products Dairy Products
Soaps & Detergents Ethicals Tea/Coffee
Household & Personal Care Products Tooth Powder Sugar
Hair Shampoo Vegetable Oils
Health Care Hair Oil Bakery Products
Food and Beverages Creams & lotions Confectionary
Toothpastes Processed Foods
Agarbattis, Fragrances & Essential Oils Banded flour
FMCG Revenue Breakup- Region wise
Geographical Composition:
In India, more than 65 percent of the population lives in rural areas, and these
people spend more than 50% of their total income on products of FMCG. The
urban segment accounts for around 55 percent of revenue, while the rural
segment accounts for 45 percent.
45%
Rural 55%
The FMCG sector, India's fourth-largest industry, employs about three million
Urban
people. While the urban segment accounts for about 55% of total FMCG
revenues, the rural market is likely to develop at a higher rate. As India's semi-
urban and rural economies expand at a rapid pace, FMCG products now account
for half of all spending in rural areas.
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Key Trends
b. Favourable Demographics
Fashion and Beauty 39.50% In 2020, India's anticipated median age will be 28.7 years. When compared to
the predicted median age in other leading economies throughout the world like
USA and China, this is the lowest where it is 38.5 and 38.4 years respectively.
The dependence ratio (the ratio of dependent persons to working-age people, 15
to 64 years old) has decreased from 64 percent in FY2000 to 50 percent in FY19,
Consumer spending (in INR billion)
owing to the country's growing young population. This could result in more
25000 discretionary spending being allocated, as well as increased demand for
consumer items.
20000
15000
Also, the share of persons in the 15-64 age range, which is the high consumption
class, has increased from 36% in FY2000 to 50% in FY2019. All of the
10000 aforementioned factors have aided the expansion of the food service business,
home and personal care products as young people are known to be more open
5000 and adaptable to exploring new trends and embracing the advancements in
technologies. Furthermore, because the age group under 25 is one of the largest
0
spending, the current age dynamics are predicted to improve consumer goods
May-20
May-17
May-18
May-19
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
sales.
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2018
2019
2020
Food processing accounted for 56.8% share of the total FDI inflows as shown in
the figure below.
9% g. Other drivers
Global economic growth will accelerate to 6.0 percent in 2021, largely due to a
low base in 2020, Vaccination and medical infrastructure
The Union Budget 2021 is projected to give additional impetus to improve India's
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 competitiveness and promote inclusive growth. Increased capex, as well as
increased spending on agriculture and rural infrastructure development, bode
good for the economy and will help to fuel a virtuous consumption-investment-
Growth in Online Users (in million) employment cycle.
200
Trend 1: Demand in Demographics
Currently, India's FMCG industry is divided into two demographic groups: urban
and rural. The increase of FMCG revenues in India has always been dominated
90 by metropolitan areas. Semi-urban and rural consumption, on the other hand, has
recently increased significantly, with the rural FMCG market expected to reach
220 billion USD by 2025.
While per-capita food consumption has been increasing in the rural sector,
demand for instant meals has surged in the urban market. Ready to Cook (RTC),
Ready to Eat (RTE) are some of the latest trends influencing consumer
preferences. Furthermore, following the COVID crisis, consumers' attitudes about
cleanliness and health have altered, resulting in increased demand for sanitizers,
hand soap, disinfectants, wipes, and house cleaning goods, establishing a new
trend in the FMCG sector.
Strategies
a. Strengthen rural network
• Dabur increase its rural market from 44k villages in March 2019 to around
52k villages in March 2020. The company has set target up to 60k for
FY20-21.
• Marico introduced bottom-of-the-pyramid products to its portfolio of value-
added hair oil which le d the company to reach rural markets.
• Godrej Consumer Goods Ltd planning to extend its rural presence in key
states to 80k villages
b. Mobile apps
• Companies like Dabur India and Marico Ltd. have introduced retail
telephone services and a dedicated app for online orders by kiranas.
Strategies adopted for FMCG by companies • CavinKare in Chennai introduced an app for its top retailers which was
used by 75k+ shopkeepers to get the company’s products in India.
India Advantage
Growing demand:
• Packaged food is expected to double to $70bn by FY2025
• India share in global consumption expected to rise more than double to
5.8% by FY 2020
• Increase in quality products by rural India supported by upgraded
distribution channels
Higher Investments:
• Investment by RP-Sanjiv Goenka Group of capital fund of $ 14.74 million
in FMCG startups
• Roots Ventures has invested in Supa Star Foods Pvt Ltd., a packaged food
and beverage company, for the second time, to help the company expand its
distribution network and add new products
Union Budget 2019-20: Full tax rebate provided by Indian government on income
up to Rs. 5 lakh (US$ 6,930) will boost disposable income in the hands of
common people and create opportunities in FMCG Sector
Farm debt exemptions, spending on rural infrastructure, and the direct benefit
transfer (DBT) system have all aided in the last few years.
Target Name
\ Acquirer Name Merger/Acquisition Year
Eveready Industries Dabur's Burman family Acquisition (19%) 2020
GlaxoSMithKline Consumer Healthcare Limited Hindustan Unilever Ltd.(HUL) Merger 2020
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd;s Vwash Brand Hindustan Unilever Ltd.(HUL) Acquisition 2020
Eastern Condiment Orkla Acquisition (68%) 2020
Beardo Marico Acquisition (100%) 2020
Sunrise Food Private Limited ITC Ltd. Acquisition 2020
CMP Market Capitalization EPS ROCE ROE P/E Price to book FII DII
Nestle India 19,000 1,83,191 232 139 106 82 82 12 8
Britannia Inds. 3,676 88,537 71 45 47 52 25 18 12
HUL 2,393 5,62,292 36 39 29 67 12 15 10
ITC 223 2,75,018 12 29 21 19 5 11 44
Dabur 586 1,03,570 10 27 24 58 14 21 3
Godrej 957 97,825 17 20 20 55 10 26 5
We looked at the above ratios of the top six FMCG companies by market
capitalization: Nestle India, Britannia Industries, HUL, ITC, Dabur and Godrej.
Ratio Analysis These peer firms' performance will give us a good indication of how the FMCG
industry as a whole is doing.
Nestle
India The price-to-earnings ratio remains the highest for Nestle India, followed by HUL.
100
80 It shows that investor confidence is high for these companies. In contrast, ITC
60 Britannia has the lowest P/E ratio of 19.27 among its competitors.
Godrej
40 Inds.
20 The return on the capital employed ratio, which allows investors to compare
0 several companies and shows how companies use their money most efficiently
to generate profits, is highest for Nestle India with 139.29 and lowest for Godrej
Dabur HUL with 19.74 among the peer companies.
Return on equity signifies how well the company is using the stakeholder's money
ITC to generate profits. Nestle India tops this chart again pertaining to its strong
fundamentals. But, the price to book ratio, which helps in understanding how
P/E Price to book many times the stock is trading over and above the company's book value, is
highest again for Nestle India, which tells us how much the company is
overvalued compared to its peers.
3% Challenges
34%
1%
1% Managing availability in the complex distribution Size
The Indian FMCG sector comprises of a complex distribution chain that has
7% multiple layers of numerous small retailers between the company and the end
customer. With the exponential growth of SKUs (Stock Keeping Units), simply
3% ensuring availability at the final stage of distribution has become a nightmare for
businesses. Standard solutions that work in industrialised countries do not work
3%
in developing countries like India that works with smaller pack sizes. In developed
6% countries, larger pack sizes are sold which leads to lower cost of production
whereas in a country like India, smaller pack sizes are sold to penetrate the
4% markets which increases the distribution costs that cannot be passed on to
4% 19%
consumers completely in order to create demand and make products affordable.
Companies will eventually have to come up with new solutions to balance market
penetration and logistics costs.
ITC Hindustan Unilever(HUL)
Nestle Britannia Inadequate Infrastructure
Patanjali Ayurved Dabur
Lack of proper transport system and road infrastructure especially in rural areas
leads to increase in cost of production for FMCG players. Similarly, lack of
Godrej Group Marico adequate chilling infrastructure and power shortage can significantly affect
GlaxoSmithKline Colgate-Palmolive distribution and sale of varied products like milk, ice cream etc. During the
Emami Amul summer, most Indian cities experience power outages, and ice cream
manufacturers must deal with these issues in their distribution networks. In
Parle Products general, FMCG companies must factor these concerns into their supply chain
planning.
1. Product
Master Data Highly competitive industry
The FMCG industry consists of domestic players with PAN India and regional
2. Customer
presence as well as MNCs which leads to intense competition amongst the
6. Supply chain
in a digital world
(Sales and players. The companies spend aggressively on marketing and promotional
consumer) data
activities as the switching costs for the consumer is very low.
Data Challenges for
FMCG & Retail Dealing with counterfeit goods
Counterfeit goods damage the brand reputation and also leads to loss of sales
3. Empowered
for the companies. According to a recent study conducted, counterfeit goods lead
5. Data Security
customer to sales loss of more than Rs 300 billion every year in the FMCG industry. To
prevent such losses, the industry players need to exercise greater control over
4. Government
regulation and
their distribution channels instead of just leaving to the market forces.
public
responsibilities
Risks
Maintaining quality and safety standards, counterfeit products, not beating the
market and generating negative or almost identical returns to the market during
Consumer Spending Pattern
the last 5-10 years
(Region Wise)
FMCG firms' advertisement costs are rising: FMCG companies in India have
54.70% Rural India increased their sales promotion and advertisement costs by 10-20%.
Urban India Every year, these businesses increase their advertising spending in order to build
a strong client base and to lessen market competition.
34.80%
Impact of COVID-19
FMCG Porters Five Forces • Reduced discretionary advertising and other costs
• Increased visibility on e-commerce platforms
• Drove rural distribution aggressively as a major proportion of the urban
10
population has migrated to rural, which is projected to upsurge rural demand
8
in the near future
6 4
• Introduced new items in the ‘health' and ‘hygiene' categories to fulfil the
9 4
8 growing consumer needs, etc.
2
• Made significant use of E-commerce as a distribution channel, as it is one of
0 the most upcoming and most preferred among consumers
4 During June 2021, the relaxation of Covid restrictions resulted in a 15-20 percent
increase in FMCG sales across grocery stores in general trade and a 25-30
8 percent increase in supermarkets.
Future Implications
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10
We may witness a special delivery system for customers in the future, and to be
more specific, we may see the use of drones for product delivery, which, once
adopted, would bring a significant change to the way the sector operates and also
increases efficiency.
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60 Despite having one of the world's lowest per capita consumption of FMCG
products, the market in India is one of the fastest expanding in the world. As a
50 result, there are several potential opportunities in the industry. On the strength of
40 development in the e-commerce business, favourable demographics, and an
increase in disposable income, among other factors, the sector's long-term
30 outlook remains good. The share of unorganised players is likely to decrease
following higher demand for branded products from smaller towns and cities
20
through online portals. Despite the relaxing of limits, ecommerce contribution at
10 FMCG firms will surpass the double-digit mark within a year, indicating altered
buying patterns for daily-use items previously offered mostly by either large-
0 format supermarkets or tiny mom-and-pop neighbourhood stores.
India e-retail market over the next five years, expanding at 30% and reach $120-
140 billion by 2026. The noticeable change in buying behaviour is leading the
likes of Nestle, ITC, Britannia, Dabur, Emami, Marico and Tata Consumer, among
others, to push exclusive packs through ecommerce channels and increase
FII DII consumer promotion spends. Even traditional businesses are launching their own
online sales platforms to attract customers, while ecommerce corporations are
pushing for record-breaking delivery times.
Rural Consumption in India (in $ billion)
Further, a change in perception of health and hygiene following the pandemic will
ensure that the demand for immunity-boosting and hygiene products sustains
100
even after the pandemic.
Conclusion
We can infer that the FMCG business in India is one of the most stable and
growing sectors. Due to well-established distribution systems and networks in
place for many years, the FMCG sector did not plummet as other industries did
due to COVID-19's influence. Multiple market drivers, including rising
29.4
disposable incomes, increased urbanization, digitally influenced spending,
18.92 government reforms, and the growing rural market, will all contribute to the
12.3 12.1 14.8
9 10.4 FMCG sector's future growth in India.
Even though it has not provided as high returns as the NIFTY 50, this sector
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2025 can be considered by investors seeking safe and consistent returns. They are
often low-growth investments, but they are safe bets with predictable
margins, steady returns, and consistent dividends.
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Analysts:
Srishti: srishti1.21@iimranchi.ac.in
Disclaimer: This report is only for educational purposes neither IIM Ranchi nor Arthanaya capital should be held
responsible for any profit/loss incurred.