Federal Aviation

Administration

FAA Aerospace
Forecast
Fiscal Years
2010-2030

U.S. Department of Transportation

Federal Aviation Administration
Aviation Policy and Plans
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

MESSAGE FROM THE ADMINISTRATOR

This year’s forecast confirms what we already know: Aviation is a business subject to highly volatile and
unpredictable external influences. Whether it is the economy, the global political climate or environmental
concerns, our industry is affected at every level. The good news is that aviation has shown time and time
again that it can adapt and meet those challenges while continuing to provide safe, efficient transportation.
This year’s forecast anticipates that these challenges will remain for at least 20 more years. But it also
shows our confidence this industry will not only face these challenges head on, but will thrive.

Aviation has been especially hard hit by the turbulence that has rocked our economy. As the economy
dipped, airline demand fell sharply. Airlines have tightened their belts, passengers have modified
their traveling habits, and our airports have had to adapt. But, economic growth will return along with
passengers and increasing operations. We expect to see changes in the industry as it rebounds over the
next several years, with international markets growing faster than domestic markets, and large airports
growing faster than smaller ones. We also expect the trend toward larger regional jets to continue while
most of the smaller regional jets will be retired from the fleet.

For the remainder of 2010, we expect that last year’s trends will continue before the industry turns the
corner. But we do expect growth in the longer-term. For the short-term, we will continue to see declines
in both domestic and international capacity as carriers respond to the impacts of the economic downturn.
The airlines will continue to make adjustments to fleets and operations to match changing demand.

Although we find the industry dealing with issues no one would have predicted a decade ago, we also
know those issues are here to stay, along with possibly new, unknown challenges. All of us in the industry
must learn how to do business in this uncertain world. Factors such as oil price volatility, economic
uncertainty, congestion concerns, security demands, and environmental issues are not going away.

This forecast will help the FAA and the aviation industry prepare for the future. In spite of the uncertain
world in which we find ourselves, we know that a robust aviation industry is key to economic recovery and
future continued growth. We will be ready.

Randy Babbitt
Administrator

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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

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 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

TABLE OF CONTENTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . PAGE

Forecast Highlights. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Review of 2009. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
U.S. Economic Activity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
World Economic Activity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Commercial Aviation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
World Travel Demand. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
U.S. Travel Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Commercial Air Carriers - Passenger. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Commercial Air Carriers - Cargo. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2009 Financial Results. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2009 Aircraft Fleet. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
General Aviation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
FAA Workload. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010 - 2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Economic Forecasts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
World Economy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Aviation Traffic and Activity forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Commercial Aviation Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Domestic Markets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
International Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Air Cargo. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Commercial Aircraft Fleet. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
General Aviation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
FAA Workload Forecasts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
FAA and Contract Towers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
En Route Centers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
UNmanned Aircraft Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
Commercial Space Transportation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Risks to the Forecast. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
Appendix A: ALTERNATIVE FORECAST SCENARIOS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Appendix B: Forecast Accuracy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
Appendix C: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
Forecast Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69

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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

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 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

 ORECAST HIGHLIGHTS
F
2010-2030
Aviation will continue to grow over the long term, despite current global economic conditions. Since 2000,
U.S. airlines have dealt with the impacts of 9/11, the bankruptcy of four network carriers, record high fuel
prices, the most serious economic downturn since the Great Depression, and heightened concerns about a
pandemic that turned into reality in 2009. In spite of these challenges, the number of passengers traveling
continues to grow over the long term, demonstrating the value of air transportation to the public. There has
been a slowdown in air travel growth, and the FAA now calls for one billion passengers to be flown in 2023,
pushed back from last year’s 2021.

The 2010 forecast for commercial aviation calls for lackluster activity in the near term, with a return to
growth over the long term. The level of activity and demand in the long term, however, is not expected
to snap back to levels published in the previous FAA forecast. The most significant factor preventing
recovery to prior forecast levels is the blow to the economy from the Great Recession. The recession led
to an erosion of wealth, double-digit unemployment, declining corporate travel budgets, and close-fisted
consumers, all of which contributed to a softening of demand for air travel. A bright spot is on the horizon,
though. After four straight quarters of decline, the U.S. economy resumed growth in the fourth quarter of
2009, albeit driven by government stimulus packages that are winding down.

System capacity in available seat miles (ASMs) – the overall yardstick for how busy aviation is both
domestically and internationally – will drop 1.6 percent this year, after posting a 7.4 percent decrease
during 2009, and then grow at an average of 3.6 percent per year through 2030. In the domestic market,
capacity drops 1.1 percent in 2010, after posting the largest percentage decline in ASMs (down 8.9 percent
in FY 2009) since deregulation of the industry. Domestic mainline carrier capacity will decline 1.6 percent
(marking the third straight year of declines). For the regional carriers, domestic capacity will grow 1.9
percent from 2009 levels – resuming growth after shrinking in 2009 for the first time since deregulation.
Commercial air carrier domestic revenue passenger miles (RPMs) are forecast to grow 0.4 percent in
2010, and then grow at an average of 3.2 percent per year through 2030; enplanements in 2010 will grow
0.4 percent for the year, and then grow at an average annual rate of 2.5 percent for the remainder of the
forecast.

Following previous downturns (e.g. the recessions in 1991 and 2001) carriers stimulated passenger demand
by reducing fares sharply. The industry’s initial response to the current economic downturn was to modestly
cut fares and to better match supply (seats) and demand (passengers). It quickly became apparent that
dramatic (not modest) cuts in fares would be the only way to stimulate passenger demand, and carriers
responded with multiple sales throughout the year. In addition, to help minimize losses, carriers also reduced
flying to hold the line on costs. With no evidence of pent up demand, we do not anticipate a return to
previously forecasted passenger levels even when recovery takes hold.

The average size of domestic aircraft is expected to decline by 0.3 seats in FY 2010 to 121.6 seats.
Average seats per aircraft for mainline carriers are projected to fall by 0.8 seats as network carriers1

1 Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, Continental Airlines, Delta Airlines, Northwest Airlines, United Airlines, and US Airways (although Delta
Airlines and Northwest Airlines merged, the carriers continued to report separate operating results through 2009 since they held separate
operating certificates).

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 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

continue to reconfigure their domestic fleets. While demand for 70-90 seat aircraft continues to increase,
we expect the number of 50 seat regional jets in service to fall, increasing the average regional aircraft size
in 2010 by 1.2 seats to 56.2 seats per mile. Passenger trip length in domestic markets will remain relatively
flat, decreasing by 0.7 miles.

The downturn in the economy has dampened the near-term prospects for the general aviation industry, but
the long-term outlook remains favorable. We see growth in business aviation demand over the long term
driven by a growing U.S. and world economy. As the fleet grows, the number of general aviation hours
flown is projected to increase an average of 2.5 percent a year through 2030.

The shaky global economy that took hold in the latter part of 2008 is expected to continue its squeeze
on air travel demand through 2010. Profitability for U.S. carriers will hinge on the return of demand for
corporate air travel, the ability to pass along fare increases to leisure travelers, and a stable environment
for fuel prices. To navigate the volatile operating environment, mainline carriers will continue to drive
down their costs by better matching flight frequencies and/or aircraft gauge with demand, delaying
deliveries of newer aircraft and/or grounding older aircraft, and pressuring regional affiliates to accept
lower fees for contract flying. Over the long term, we see a competitive and profitable industry
characterized by increasing demand for air travel and air fares growing more slowly than inflation.

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 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

REVIEW OF 2009
Each passing month of 2009 saw the light on consumer confidence dim as housing foreclosures climbed,
credit tightened, and unemployment surged. This chain of events led to listless demand for air travel during
the year as corporate travel budgets were slashed and consumer spending dried up. In 20092 system
revenue passenger miles (RPMs) decreased 7.1 percent as enplanements fell 7.3 percent. Commercial
air carrier domestic enplanements were down 7.3 percent while international enplanements fell 6.6
percent. The system-wide load factor increased 0.2 points to 79.7 percent. Domestic enplanement market
share for low-cost and regional carriers grew in 2009 while network and “other” carrier share decreased.
Enplanement market share for the network carriers shrank 1.5 points to 47.6 percent while market share
for “other” carriers shrank 0.5 points to 1.4 percent. Low cost carrier3 share rose 0.9 points to 26.6 percent
and regional carrier market share rose 1.0 points to 24.4 percent.

System wide real yield dropped 9.8 percent during 2009 as the Great Recession led to reduction in demand
for premium travel and carriers executed fare sales throughout the year to stimulate demand for leisure
travel. In spite of the economic environment, the commercial air carrier industry posted an operating profit
in 2009. Carrier operating losses during the first half of the year were replaced by operating profits during
the second half for total operating profits of $755 million for the year (compared to a $2.0 billion operating
loss posted for 2008). The network carriers reported operating losses for the three of the four quarters to
total losses of $1.7 billion for the year. All six of the network carriers posted losses for the year, while eight
out of nine of the low cost carriers posted operating profits. The net loss for U.S. commercial air carriers
in 2009 was $8.1 billion, with the network, low cost, “other” and cargo carriers posting net losses of $7.6
billion, $145.6 million, $296.0 million, and $331.2 million, respectively. The regional carriers posted a net
profit of $202.3 million.

The market for general aviation products and services declined sharply in 2009. U.S. manufacturer
shipments declined for the 2nd year in a row, a whopping 48.5 percent decrease, while billings fell 32.1
percent compared to 2008. Single engine piston aircraft shipments fell 54.6 percent while turbine jet
aircraft shipments decreased by 46.2 percent. The decline in shipments and billings seen in the jet fleet
was a direct reflection of the downturn in the U.S. and world economy. Along with the fall in shipments and
billings, general aviation activity at FAA and contract tower airports fell 11.7 percent in 2009.

Total operations at FAA and contract towers fell 10.4 percent to their lowest levels since 1982 as activity
declined in all user categories. Although the number of flights fell, FAA’s workload didn’t. As the fleet
mix changes with increasing numbers of regional and business jets in the nation’s skies, and as carriers
consolidate operations in their large hubs, the complexity of activity in the airspace continues to grow,
increasing our workload.

2 All stated years and quarters for U.S. economic and U.S. air carrier traffic and financial data and forecasts are on a fiscal year (FY) basis
(October 1 through September 30). All stated years and quarters for international economic and world traffic and financial data are on a
calendar year (CY) basis, unless otherwise stated.
3 Allegiant Air, AirTran Airways, Frontier Airlines, JetBlue Airways, Southwest Airlines, Spirit Airlines, USA3000, and Virgin America Airlines.

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 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

U.S. Economic Activity

In FY 2009, the U.S. economy experienced the worst recession in the post war era. After growing 1.9
percent in FY 2008, U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted 2.9 percent in fiscal year 2009. The
story during the first part of the year was the sharp decline in output that accompanied the financial crisis
brought on by the Lehman Bros bankruptcy in September 2008. Real GDP contracted 5.4 percent in the
first quarter followed by an even steeper 6.4 percent contraction in the second quarter. As the economic
downturn gathered momentum, the new Administration and Congress passed the American Recovery and
Reinvestment Act (ARRA) in February 2009. The bill which included a combination of individual tax cuts,
investment incentives, aid to people directly hurt by the recession, state fiscal relief, and direct government
investment spending was estimated to have a total fiscal impact of $787 billion. While there has been
significant debate about the effectiveness of ARRA, data show that the freefall in economic activity
began to temper during the 3Q as output fell by just 0.7 percent. In the 4Q, buoyed by a variety of rebate
programs (most notably “cash for clunkers”) the U.S. economy grew for first time in five quarters, with
output increasing by 2.2 percent.

U.S. G R O SS DO M E ST IC PR O DUC T
SEASO NAL LY ADJ UST ED ANNUAL G RO W T H
FY 2008 AND 2009 BY Q UART E R
3 .0
2.1 2.2
2 .0 1.5
ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

1 .0

0 .0

-1 .0
(0 .7 ) (0.7 )
-2 .0

-3 .0
(2 .7)
-4 .0

-5 .0
(5.4 )
-6 .0
(6 .4)
-7 .0
20 07 -0 4 2 00 8-01 20 08 -0 2 2 00 8-03 20 08 -0 4 200 9- 0 1 2 009 -02 20 09- 0 3

F isca l Y ear 2 008 F iscal Y ear 200 9

One of the most obvious impacts of the recession was the rise in the nation’s unemployment rate. In
December 2007 when the recession began, the unemployment rate was 5.0 percent. As the recession
intensified the unemployment rate rose and reached 7.4 percent in December 2008. The rate continued
to rise throughout 2009 and stood at 9.8 percent in September 2009. All told from the beginning of the
recession through the end of FY 2009, approximately 6.9 million jobs have been lost.

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 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

11.0
10.0 9.4 9.5 9.4 9.7
9.8

9.0 8.9
8.6
8.2
8.0 7.4 7.7

PCT UNEMPLOYED
7.0 6.6 6.9
6.1 6.2
6.0 5.8
5.0 5.0 5.4 5.5
5.1 5.0
5.0 4.8

4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09

Another impact of the recession was the falling demand for oil and resulting lower oil prices. Oil prices,
as measured by the U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost, fell by 45.4 percent in FY 2009 to $55.46. But, as in
FY 2008, the average price for the year fails to tell the whole story. Oil prices, which averaged $98.91 in
September 2008, fell rapidly through January 2009, down to $37.45, then recovered back to $65.71 by June
and remained in the mid $60 range for the balance of the fiscal year, averaging $67.74 in September 2009.
U.S. REFINERS’ ACQUISITION COST

$140

$120

$100
$ PER BARREL

$80

$60

$40

$20

$0
2002-01 2003-01 2004-01 2005-01 2006-01 2007-01 2008-01 2009-01

The combination of falling demand and falling energy prices resulted in the consumer price index (CPI)
declining by 0.3 percent in FY 2009, the first decline in the CPI since 1955. The 0.3 percent fall in the CPI in
FY 2009 was 4.7 percentage points lower than in FY 2008.

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 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

World Economic Activity

As the world’s largest economy, the U.S continues to have a prominent role in world economic growth. The
slowdown that began in the U.S. in 2008 spread to all corners of the globe by the end of the year and led to
the worst performance in the global economy since the Great Depression. In calendar year 2009, the world
economy shrank by an estimated 2.4 percent as the advanced economies (U.S., Western Europe, Japan,
Australia, New Zealand, and Canada) contracted 3.3 percent. Most regions saw their economies shrink but
data coming out at the end of the year suggested that recovery had begun in most parts of the world with
China and the U.S. leading the way.

U.S. AND W ORLD GDP

CAL ENDAR YEARS 2002 - 2009
5.0
4.0 4.1 3.9
4.0
ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

3.6 3.6
2.7 3.1
3.0 2.7
2.5
2.1
1.8 2.0 1.8
2.0

1.0
0.4
0.0

-1.0

-2.0
(2.5)(2.4)
-3.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

U.S. World

On a calendar year basis, GDP in Canada contracted at the same rate of the U.S. in 2009, falling 2.5
percent. The combined economies of the Asian and Far East nations grew just 1.2 percent in 2009, down
from 3.5 percent a year earlier. This region includes the world’s second largest economy, Japan (down
5.3 percent), and the world’s most vibrant economy, China (up 8.5 percent). The combined economies
of Europe were hit particularly hard by the downturn with the economies of Western Europe shrinking 3.9
percent while the combined economies of Central Europe and the former Soviet Union contracted 6.1
percent. GDP in Latin America fell 2.1 percent with Brazil up just 0.2 percent while Mexico shrank by 7.5
percent as the U.S. recession resulted in sharp economic downturn in Mexico.

Commercial Aviation
Commercial aviation suffered through a terrible year in 2009. Despite falling jet fuel prices, the downturn
in passenger demand as a result of the global recession hurt the industry. Coming off of a year of record
losses in 2008, the U.S. industry posted a smaller net loss in 2009, with a similar outcome predicted for
foreign carriers. With the U.S., Europe and Japan in recession, global industry net losses for calendar year
2009 are expected to be $11.0 billion, with large losses in all global regions4. Although U.S. airlines had
implemented large capacity reductions at the end of 2008, the downturn in demand resulted in a loss of
pricing power and fares fell sharply in 2009.

4 IATA Financial Forecast, December 2009.

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 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

World Travel Demand

Based on data compiled by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), world air carriers recorded their
“worst-ever” performance in CY 2009, reflecting the first contraction of the global economy since the Great
Depression of 1929. Although traffic results are not available for full year 2009, ICAO estimates that worldwide
RPKs decreased 3.1 percent. In comparison world passenger traffic declined 2.9 percent during 20015.
WORLD PASSENGER DEM AND
CALENDAR YEARS 2002 - 2009
16.0 14 .1

1 1.7
ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

12.0
8.0
8.0 7 .1 6 .4 6.7
5 .9
5 .3
3.2
4.0
1 .8
1.8
0 .5
0.0
-0.1
-0.4

-4.0 -3 .1
-4 .1

-8.0
2 0 02 2 003 2 0 04 2 005 20 06 2 007 20 0 8 200 9E

Pas sengers R P Ks
Source: 2009 World Estimate – ICAO, December 2009

Statistics from the Association of European Airlines (AEA) show that passengers decreased 5.8 percent
and RPKs decreased 4.5 percent for CY 2009. Capacity, as measured by available seat kilometers (ASKs),
was down 4.2 percent during the same time period. Data available through CY 2009 show that AEA carrier
traffic was strongest in the Middle-East (up 6.1 percent), followed by the North Africa (up 4.5 percent), and
Sub Saharan Africa regions (up 1.2 percent). Traffic in the North Atlantic region was down 5.6 percent.

EUROPEAN CARRIERS CAPACITY AND TRAFFIC

CALENDAR YEAR 2009

2.0
% CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS YEAR

0.0

-2.0

-4.0

-6.0

-8.0

-10.0

-12.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
ASKS RPKS
Sour ce: Associa tion of E uropean Air lines (AEA)

5 ICAO News Release, December 18, 2009.

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 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported a decrease of 6.5 percent in RPKs on a 6.1 percent
decrease in ASKs in CY 2009. Passengers were down 5.7 percent during the same period.
ASIA PA CIFIC CARRIERS CAPACITY AND TRAFFIC
CALENDAR YEAR 2009
6.0

3.0
% CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS YEAR

0.0

-3.0

-6.0

-9.0

-12.0

-15.0

-18.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
ASKS RPKS
Sour ce: Association of Asia P acific Air lines (AAPA)

In CY 2009, U.S. and foreign flag carriers will transport an estimated 147.1 million passengers between the
United States and the rest of the world, a 4.7 percent decrease from 2008. Year-over-year growth declined
in all world markets with the Pacific market posting the largest decline (down 6.4 percent) followed by the
Canadian transborder market (down 5.9%), the Latin America market (down 4.3 percent), and the Atlantic
market (down 3.9 percent).
TOTAL PASSENGERS TO/FROM THE UNITED STATES
U.S. AND FOREIGN FLAG CARRIERS
CALENDAR YEARS 2002 – 2009

180
Atlantic L . Am eric a Pa cific C ana da
160
21.4
140 21.5 20.4
19.7 21.0
Millions of Passengers

18.5
120 26.3
25.8
24.1
1 7.6 16.9 25.6
23.8 25.1
100
2 2.3 20.2
80 49.8 47.6
48.6
42.7 44.2 47.1
3 6.9 39.1
60

40
53.3 57.1 54.9
4 3.4 44.6 48.9 49.9 49.8
20

0
2 002 2003 2 004 200 5 20 06 2007 20 08 2009

Worldwide air cargo demand plummeted in 2009 as world trade volumes fell due to the global
economic downturn.6 According to ICAO, worldwide freight tonne kilometers fell 15.0 percent in 2009
compared to a drop of 1.2 percent in 2008. AEA member carriers FTK’s were down 16.5 percent for
the year while AAPA member carriers FTKs were down 11.0 percent for the same period.

6 ICAO News Release, December 18, 2009.

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 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

WORLD AIR CARGO DEMAND

CA LENDAR YEARS 2002 – 2009
12.0
9.6 1 0.2
9.0

ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

8.0 7.2 6 .7
4.7 5.9 5.8
5.0 4.5
4.0
2.5 2.5

0.0
-1.2
-4.0 -3.1

-8.0

-12.0
-13.1
-16.0 -15.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Tonnes RTKS

Sou r ce: R T K s, T on nes – IC AO ; 2009 Tonn es est. IAT A, Dec 2009

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports world air carriers (including U.S. airlines) are
expected to register an operating loss of $3.7 billion for 2009. Falling yields due to reduced demand
combined with an upward trend in fuel prices led to deteriorating financial results for CY 2009, with
IATA estimating global airline industry net losses to be $11.0 billion for the year. Based on financial data
compiled by ICAO between 2001 and 2008 world airlines produced cumulative operating profits of $20.5
billion (with four years out of eight posting gains) and net losses of $41.8 billion (with two years out of eight
posting gains).7
WORLD AIR CARRIER PROFIT/LOSS
CALENDAR YEARS 2002 - 2009
$25
$ 19.7
$20
$15.0
BILLIONS OF U.S. DOLLARS

$15 $1 2.9
$10
$3 .3 $4 .3 $ 3.6
$5
$0
-$1 .4
-$5 -$4.1 -$3.8 -$3.7
-$4.8 -$5.6
-$ 7.5
-$10
-$ 11.3 -$11.0
-$15
-$16.8
-$20
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Operating Net
Source: 2009 World Estimate: IATA, December 2009; 2002-2008 IC AO

7 IATA Financial Forecast, December 2009.

13
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

U.S. Travel Demand

By year end FY 2009, the U.S. commercial aviation industry consisted of 18 scheduled mainline air carriers
that use large passenger jets (over 90 seats) and 66 regional carriers that use smaller piston, turboprop,
and regional jet aircraft (up to 90 seats) to provide connecting passengers to the larger carriers. Mainline
and regional carriers provide domestic and international passenger service between the U.S. and foreign
destinations, although regional carrier international service is confined to border markets in Canada,
Mexico, and the Caribbean. There were no carriers that either started or ceased operations during 2009;
however Republic airlines acquired Midwest Airlines in June 2009 and Frontier Airlines (and its wholly
owned subsidiary Lynx Aviation) during August 2009. Twenty-seven all-cargo carriers were providing
domestic and/or international air cargo service at the end 2009.

Three distinct trends have occurred over the past several years that are shaping today’s commercial air
carrier industry: (1) convergence of the network and low cost carrier business models; (2) consolidation
of activity at a small percentage of the nation’s airports, and (3) a delineation of markets served between
mainline and regional carriers.

The narrowing of the percentage share of domestic mainline capacity operated between network and low
cost carriers resumed in 2009, signaling a trend toward convergence of their respective business models.
After losing share in 2008, partially due to the cessation of operations by two low cost carriers during the
year (American Trans Air and Skybus Airlines), low cost carrier share grew 1.5 percentage points in 2009.
Since 2000, the share of capacity flown by the low cost carriers has more than doubled, going from 17.0
percent in 2000 to 35.8 percent in 2009.

Activity at over 400 airports offering commercial service in the 48 contiguous states is consolidated at a
small percentage of the airports. Analysis of Department of Transportation origin and destination data for
the period 2000 through 2008 shows the percent of originating passengers at the 35 Operational Evolution
Partnership (OEP) airports as a share of total domestic originating passengers to be stable. During this
period the OEP 35 share ranged from a low of 63.1 percent in 2001 to a high of 64.5 percent in 2006
(in 2008 the share was 63.9 percent). Taking a larger sample, looking at the top 100 airports ranked by
O&D passengers, these airports share of total domestic originating passengers has ranged from a low of
91.6 percent to a high of 92.1 percent in 2006 (with the share in 2008 at 91.9 percent), highlighting the
concentration of passengers in the system.

The number of city pairs less than 750 miles apart served by mainline carriers in the contiguous U.S.
is shrinking, indicating a concentration of flying by this group of carriers in markets greater than 750
miles. Overall, between 2003 and 2008 the number of city pairs served by mainline carriers increased by
218, going from 3,044 to 3,262. In markets greater than 750 miles apart, city pairs for this carrier group
increased by 268 and in markets less than 750 miles city pairs decreased by 50. In 2008, markets greater
than 750 miles apart were 59.0 percent of all markets served by mainline carriers, up from a share of 54.4
percent in 2003. In comparison, between 2003 and 2008 the number of city pairs served by regional
carriers increased in both distance categories. For distances less than 750 miles, regional carriers flew 182
more markets than in 2003, and for distances greater than 750 miles these carriers flew 380 more markets
than in 2003.

14
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

Commercial Air Carriers — Passengers

The contraction in growth that crept into the final months of fiscal year 2008, intensified in 2009 as U.S.
commercial air carriers posted sharp declines in capacity and traffic during the year. System (the sum of
domestic plus international) capacity dropped 7.4 percent to 965.5 billion ASMs while RPMs dropped 7.1
percent to 769.7 billion. During the same period system-wide passenger growth declined 7.3 percent.

Two factors attributed toward the decline in demand for air travel during FY 2009. The primary factor
reducing demand was the global economic meltdown. The meltdown strained corporate travel budgets
and led to double-digit unemployment. Secondary to the economic meltdown was the outbreak of H1N1
flu which resulted in drastically reduced demand to the Latin region (particularly Mexico) during the Spring.
In an attempt to stem financial losses, carriers quickly reduced capacity with yield preservation as the goal.
These actions were no match for a deepening recession, swelling unemployment lines, and consumer
confidence that plummeted to an all-time low in February 2009. For the year, mainline carrier passenger
growth contracted 8.2 percent while regional carrier growth dropped 3.9 percent. In the domestic market
mainline passengers fell 8.5 percent from 2008 levels (for the sixth time in nine years) while passengers in
international markets fell for the first time since 2002 (down 5.6 percent).

In 2009, system load factor, trip length and seats per aircraft mile climbed. Load factor grew 0.2 points to
79.7 percent, down 0.2 points from the all-time high posted in 2007. For the seventh consecutive year of
growth, trip length increased 1.8 miles to 1,093.2 miles. Seats per aircraft mile increased (up 2.0 seats) to
139.8 seats per aircraft mile. In a reversal from recent trends, mainline carriers shifted some larger aircraft
traditionally used to fly international routes over to domestic ones, while regional carriers phased out some
smaller regional jet (50 seats and below) operations.
U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS
SYSTEM ASMS & AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS
FISCAL YEARS 2002 - 2009
8.0 7 .0
ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

5 .3
6.0
3 .8 3 .6
4.0 2 .7
1 .4
2.0 0 .2
0 .0
0.0
(0 .4 ) (0 .2 )
-2.0
(2 .1 )
-4.0
(3 .3 )
-6.0
( 5 .5 )
-8.0 (7 .4 )
(8 .6 )
-10.0
(9 .9 )
-12.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
ASMS O P E R A TI ON S

Sou rce : AS Ms - D OT F orm s 41 & Form 298C ; O pe rations – FA A AT ADS/OP S NET Dat a

15
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

U.S. COM MERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

SYSTEM RPM S AND ENPLANEM ENTS
FISCAL YEARS 2002 - 2009
12.0 10.6
9.0 7.5 7.07.4
6.0
2.4 2.6 2.7 3.4 3.9
3.0
0.4 0.8
0.0
(0.8)
-3.0

-6.0

-9.0 (7.3)(7.1)
(8.2)
(8.6)
-12.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
ENPLANEMENTS RPMS
Sour ce: DO T Form 41 & F or m 298C

Domestic Passenger Markets

Domestic capacity (50 states, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands) was down 8.9 percent in 2009 for
the steepest decline since deregulation in 1978 (the second deepest decline occurred in 2002 after the
terror attacks of 9/11, down 6.9 percent). Departures decreased by 8.7 percent after falling 1.9 percent in
FY 2008. Year-over-year declines in capacity were posted each month of FY 2009. After hitting double-
digit declines in capacity during the first half of the year (down 11.0 in the first and second quarter of 2009)
capacity dropped 8.3 percent and 6.0 percent in the third quarter and fourth quarter, respectively. Mainline
carrier capacity was down 9.5 percent for the year, while regional carrier capacity was down 5.1 percent.
At the end of 2009, domestic ASMs were 5.9 percent below pre-9/11 levels while departures were 14.6
percent below.
U.S. COM M ERCIAL CARRIERS
DOM ESTIC CAPA CITY
FISCAL YEAR 2009
0.0

-2.0

-4.0
Year/Year % Change

-6.0

-8.0

-10.0

-12.0

-14.0
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
ASMs Departures
Sou r ce: D O T F o r m 41

Domestic passenger enplanements and RPMs fell at a slower rate than ASMs in 2009. The decline in
passenger growth accelerated from the first to the second quarter, going from down 8.1 percent to down

16
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

11.0 percent. During the last half of the year, the decline in growth slowed to down 5.0 percent, with
September 2009 posting a slight increase of 0.2 percent over the same 2008 period. Mainline carrier
enplanements were down 8.5 percent for the year, while regional passengers fell 3.4 percent, marking the
first decline in passenger growth for regional passengers during the post-deregulation era.

U.S. COM MERCIAL CARRIERS

DOMESTIC TRAFFIC
FISCAL YEAR 2009
3.0

0.0
Year/Year % Change

-3.0

-6.0

-9.0

-12.0

-15.0
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar A pr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep
R PMs Enpla ne m en ts
Sou r c e: D O T F o r m 41

Similar to passengers, domestic RPMs dropped faster than ASMs with domestic RPMs down 7.7 percent
in 2009. After falling dramatically during the first and second quarter of the year, down 9.9 percent and
11.8 percent, respectively, the last half of the year was only down 5.1 percent with September posting year-
over-year growth of 0.5 percent. For the year, mainline carrier RPM growth was down 8.2 percent, while
regional carrier growth was down 4.3 percent.

Domestic carrier load factor increased 1.0 points to 80.4 percent, setting an all-time high. Mainline carrier
load factor increased 1.1 points to an all time high of 81.3 percent, while regional carrier load factor
increased 0.6 points from 2008 to be 74.3 percent.

Since 2000, total domestic capacity has decreased by 5.9 percent. Mainline carriers have shrunk their
domestic capacity by 14.4 percent with cutbacks by network carriers more than offsetting the growth
of low-cost carriers. Making up the shortfall from network carrier capacity cuts during this time are
the regional carriers. This segment of the industry has greatly increased capacity since 2000 (up 146.3
percent). During the same period, mainline carrier RPMs have decreased 2.2 percent, while enplanements
have fallen by 14.9 percent. In comparison, regional carrier RPMs and enplanements have increased 207.5
and 93.04 percent, respectively. As a result, mainline carrier domestic capacity share has fallen from 94.7
percent in 2000 to 86.2 percent in 2009, while their share of RPMs has dropped from 95.5 percent to 87.2
percent during the same period. Regional carriers now carry 1 in every 4 passengers, up from 1 in every
7.8 in 2000.

17
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

U.S. COM MERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

DOMESTIC ENPLANEM ENTS BY CARRIER GROUP
FISCAL YEARS 2002 – 2009
700

600 146.4 156.2 159.1

152.2
125.9 153.8
88.6 105.0
500

MILLIONS
400

300
523.1 516.3 533.9 522.2
486.5 482.8 502.6 477.6
200

100

0
2 00 2 2 003 20 04 20 05 2 00 6 2 00 7 2 008 20 09

M ainline Regionals
Sou r ce: D O T F o r m 41 & F or m 298 C

International Passenger Markets

Reversing the recent trend of rapid growth by network carriers into international markets, U.S. carriers posted
losses in international capacity and traffic in 2009. U.S. carrier ASMs and departures were down 3.5 and 5.4
percent, respectively, in 2009. ASM growth fell slower in the first half of the year (down 2.9 percent) and then
accelerated a bit during the second half of the year (down 3.6 percent). ASMs decreased in all world travel
regions—down 2.0, 3.0, and 6.7 percent, respectively, in Atlantic, Latin American, and Asia/Pacific markets.
U.S. COMMERCIAL CARRIERS
INTERNATIONAL CAPACITY
FISCAL YEAR 2009
2 .0

0 .0

-2 .0
Year/Year % Change

-4 .0

-6 .0

-8 .0

- 10 .0

- 12 .0

- 14 .0
Oc t N ov Dec J an Feb M ar A pr M ay Jun J ul Aug Se p

ASM s D e p a rtures
Sou r ce: DO T For m 41

International RPMs were down 5.6 percent and passenger enplanements were down 6.6 percent in 2009,
with the growth declining faster in first half of the year (down 7.3 percent for the first half versus down 3.6
percent during the second half for RPMs; down 7.9 percent versus down 3.5 percent for enplanements).
The Atlantic market posted the smallest decline, with RPMs down 3.4 percent and enplanements down 4.9
percent. RPMs and enplanements fell 5.9 and 7.0 percent, respectively, in the Latin American market, while
RPMs dropped 9.4 percent as enplanements fell 8.7 percent in the Pacific market.

18
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

U.S. COMMERCIAL CARRIERS

INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC
FISCAL YEAR 2009
2 .0

0 .0

-2 .0
Year/Year % Change
-4 .0

-6 .0

-8 .0

-1 0 .0

-1 2 .0

-1 4 .0
O ct N ov D ec Jan F eb Mar A pr M ay J un Jul Aug S ep

Sou r ce : DO T F or m 41 RP Ms E np la ne m e n t s

The international load factor dropped 1.7 percentage points in 2009 to be 78.1 percent. Load factor fell
in the Latin America market (down 2.5 points to 76.8 percent), the Pacific market (down 2.3 points to 78.3
percent) and in the North Atlantic market (down 1.1 points to 78.9 percent).

In 2009, 47.6 percent of the passengers flying abroad on U.S. flag carriers traveled to the Latin America
market. The remaining 51.6 percent of international passengers was split between the Atlantic market (35.3
percent) and the Pacific market (17.1 percent).

Commercial Air Carriers—Cargo

Air cargo traffic contains both domestic and international revenue freight/express and mail. The demand
for air cargo is a derived demand resulting from economic activity. Cargo moves in the bellies of passenger
aircraft and in dedicated all-cargo aircraft, on both scheduled and nonscheduled service.

U.S. air carriers flew 30.8 billion revenue ton miles (RTMs) in 2009, down 21.0 percent from 2008, with
domestic cargo RTMs declining by 17.7 percent (11.9 billion) and international RTMs decreasing by 23.0
percent (19.0 billion). The deep declines in domestic and international RTMs reflect many factors including
the recession in the U.S. and other world regions, strong price competition from alternative shipping
modes, and the global financial crisis.

19
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

CARGO REVENUE TON MILES
FISCAL YEARS 2002 – 2009 *
40

30
23.1 24.0 24 .2
20.1 24.6
BILLIONS 18.5
19.0
20 1 4.8

10
15.0 16.3 16.1 15.7 15 .8 14.4
13.0 11.9

0
200 2 2003 2 004 2005 2006 2 00 7 2008 2009

D om es tic I n te rn ational
* Note: Fiscal year s 2003 and beyond include changes in repor ting requir ements

Air cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers was 72.3 percent of total RTMs in 2009, with passenger carriers
flying the rest, or 27.7 percent of the total. Total RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers declined 20.0 percent in
2009, from 27.8 billion to 22.3 billion. Total RTMs flown by passenger carriers were 8.5 billion in 2009, 23.5
percent lower than in 2008.

On August 3, 2007, “Recommendations of the 9/11 Commission Act of 2007” was signed into law. Section
1602 of this Act states that air cargo placed on passenger aircraft will receive the same level of screening
as passenger-checked baggage. The legislation calls for the establishment of a system by 2010 that will
require 100 percent inspection of cargo transported on passenger aircraft. The Transportation Security
Administration (TSA) is currently screening 50% of cargo that is transported by a passenger carrier. The
law requires screening at the piece level. Because this screening requirement is not supplemented
by congressional funding, it is the air cargo industry’s responsibility to bear all costs. Therefore, it is
anticipated the law will continue to lead to increased cost and time requirements for shipment of cargo on
passenger air carriers.

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2009 Financial Results

After posting a record net loss of $18.6 billion in FY 2008 (primarily due to $10.0 billion in losses at
Delta and Northwest stemming from a reduction in the value of the airlines due to high fuel prices), U.S.
commercial air carriers narrowed their losses to $8.1 billion in FY 2009.

20
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CAR RIERS

OPERATING AND NET PROFIT/LOSS
FISCAL YEARS 2002 - 2009
12.0 $ 10 .2
Operating Profit/Loss
8.0 Net Profit/Loss $5 .6 $5 .9

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4.0
$ 0.8
$0 .7
0.0 -$0.2
-$ 1.2
-$ 2.0
-4.0
-$ 4.6 -$5.7 -$ 4 .6
-8.0
-$8.1
-12.0 -$1 0.6
-$10.9 -$ 11.7

-16.0
-$ 18 .6
-20.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Sou r ce: DO T Fo r m 41 & F or m 298 C

Operating revenues (passenger and cargo) were down 16.1 percent in 2009. The reduction in passenger
revenues underscored the necessity of fare sales used to fill aircraft by inducing business and leisure
travelers to fly during the economic downturn. The demand for cargo services was adversely affected as
consumers and business used slower, less expensive shipping methods or delayed purchases altogether.

Operating expenses declined 17.4 percent from FY 2008. The reduction in operating expenses during FY
2009 was driven by a 31.8 percent reduction from the record high fuel prices posted for FY 2008, along
with savings from lower variables costs due to reduced demand for passenger and cargo services.

In 2009, passenger carriers reported operating losses of $298 million and net losses of $7.8 billion, while
air cargo carriers reported an operating profit of $1.1 billion and a net loss of $331.2 million. Passenger
carriers reversed course from FY 2008 to generate an operating profit ($180.3 million) in the domestic
market, while international operations posted their first operating loss since FY 2003 ($478.3 million). Net
losses were reported for passenger carriers in both the domestic ($5.6 billion) and international market
($2.2 billion). Cargo carriers had stronger financial results than the passenger carriers. Domestically,
cargo carriers posted an operating profit of $587.3 million and a net loss of $200.6 million. In international
markets, these carriers reported operating profits of $511.3 million and net losses of $130.6 million.

The industry’s financial deterioration is largely due to the financial performance of the network carriers,
which have reported two consecutive years of losses. After posting a net loss of $19.7 billion in FY 2008,
the seven network carriers reported an additional loss of $7.6 billion in FY 2009. Most of the downturn
occurred in domestic markets where the seven carriers accounted for 58.3 percent of capacity and 47.6
percent of passengers transported. Between 2000 and 2008, the domestic operations of these carriers
reported combined operating and net losses of $30.7 and $52.7 billion, respectively. These losses widened
in 2009, with the network carriers reporting operating losses of $1.7 billion and net losses of $5.3 billion.
The nine reporting low-cost carriers reported operating profits of $765.4 million and net losses of $183.0
million in FY 2009. During this period, the low cost carriers accounted for 26.3% and 26.6% of domestic
capacity and passengers, respectively. Falling demand hindered profits for both carrier groups.

Declining leisure and business travel demand due to the economic downturn and the outbreak of H1N1
virus were responsible for mainline carrier passenger yield eroding throughout the year. Although carriers

21
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

responded to the reduction in demand for air travel with drastic capacity cutbacks, heavily discounted fares
were necessary to fill aircraft. As a result, domestic mainline carrier passenger yield dropped 8.6 percent
in 2009.

U.S. COMM ERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

DOM ESTIC PASSENGER YIELDS
FISCAL YEARS 2002 – 2009
REVENUE PER RPM (CENTS) 30

25

20

15

10

0
2002 2 003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20 09

Mainline Regionals

In 2009, regional carriers reported operating profits of $915.6 million and net profits of $202.3 million.
The fortunes of regional carriers are closely tied to the success of the larger network carriers for whom
they provide feed at mainline air carrier hub airports. These carriers are feeling the pinch as their mainline
counterparts pass more financial risk for contract flying down to their regional partners. As a result,
regional carrier passenger yield fell sharply in FY 2009, down 11.2 percent as high-yield business travelers
were either tethered to the office due to limited travel budgets or could “buy down” to less restrictive and
less expensive fares when allowed to travel.

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2009 Aircraft Fleet

The commercial passenger carrier fleet is undergoing transformation. The mainline carriers are retiring
older, less fuel efficient aircraft (e.g. 737-300/400/500 and MD-80) and replacing them with more
technologically advanced 737-700/800/900 aircraft. The regional carriers are growing their fleet of 70 to 90
seat regional jet aircraft and reducing their fleet of 50-seat jet aircraft.

The total number of aircraft in the U.S. commercial fleet (including regional carriers) is estimated at 7,132
for 2009, a decrease of 323 aircraft from 2008. This includes 3,666 mainline air carrier passenger aircraft
(over 90 seats), 854 mainline air carrier cargo aircraft, and 2,612 regional carrier aircraft (jets, turboprops,
and pistons).

22
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

AIRCRAFT FLEET
CALENDAR YEARS 2002 – 2009
5,000

4,500 M ai nlin e-AC Cargo R egionals

4,118
4,022 4,024 3,983
3,906 3,898

NUMBER OF AIRCRAFT
4,000 3,795 3,666
3,500
2,83 0 2 ,787
3,000 2 ,7 47 2,78 4
2,54 9 2 ,7 00 2 ,612
2 ,4 99
2,500

2,000

1,500
1,056 993 993 1,001 1,012 974 960 854
1,000

500

0
20 02 2003 2004 20 05 2006 2007 2 008 2009

The mainline carriers’ passenger jet fleet decreased by 129 aircraft in 2009 as fuel inefficient aircraft
continued to be grounded. With the cuts to the fleet, the mainline carrier fleet now stands at 18.3 percent
below (822 aircraft) the level it was in 2000. Since reaching a peak of 2,830 aircraft in 2005, the regional
fleet has shrunk by 218 aircraft.

General Aviation
With the onset of the economic downturn, weakening of the general aviation industry became apparent
in 2008. In 2009 the deterioration was even more pronounced with record declines by several measures
of activity and double digit declines by most measures. According to numbers released by the General
Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), U.S. manufacturers of general aviation aircraft delivered
1587 aircraft in CY 2009, 48.5 percent fewer than in CY 2008. This translates into a second consecutive
year of decline in shipments that was preceded by four years of sustained growth. The turbine categories,
turbojets and turboprops, were down 46.2 and 19.2 percent, respectively. Overall piston deliveries declined
55.1 percent, with single-engine down 54.6 percent and the much smaller multi-engine category down
64.8 percent. Billings in CY 2009 totaled $9.1 billion, down 32.1 percent compared with 2008 and the first
reported decline since 2003.

23
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

GENERAL AVIATION
U.S. MANUFACTURERS SHIPMENTS AND BILLINGS
CALENDAR YEARS 2002 - 2009
3,500 14.0
S H IP M E N T S
B IL L I N G S
3,000 12.0

SHIPMENTS 2,500 10.0

2,000 8.0

1,500 6.0

1,000 4.0

500 2.0

0 0.0
2 00 2 200 3 20 04 20 05 2006 20 07 2 008 2 00 9

Sou rce: GA M A

General aviation activity at FAA air traffic facilities in 2009 fell dramatically. Operations at combined FAA
and contract towers declined 11.7 percent in 2009, one of the largest declines ever reported. General
aviation activity at consolidated traffic facilities (FAA TRACONs) fell 10.4 percent, while the number of
general aviation aircraft handled at FAA en route centers decreased by 17.7 percent.

The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours flown and utilization from the General Aviation and Part 135
Activity Survey (GA Survey) as baseline figures upon which assumed growth rates can be applied. This
survey has been conducted annually since 1977. Beginning with the CY 2004 Survey there were significant
improvements to the survey methodology. These improvements included conducting 100 percent samples
for turboprops and turbojets, all rotorcraft, all aircraft in Alaska and all aircraft operating on-demand
under Part 135. In addition, the sample design was revised to stratify by aircraft type (19 categories), FAA
region (9 categories), and whether the aircraft was owned by an entity certified to fly Part 135 operations
(2 categories). Furthermore, a large fleet reporting form was incorporated to allow owners/operators of
multiple aircraft to report aggregate data for their entire fleet on a single form. In 2005 an additional aircraft
category (light sport aircraft) was added. The result of these changes was the sample size nearly doubled.
Between 2003 and 2005 large changes in both the number of aircraft (turbojets up by 22.8 percent, total
rotorcraft up by 33.7 percent) and hours (single-engine piston down by 17.6 percent) in many categories
occurred. The results of the 2008 Survey, the latest one available, are consistent with the results of past
surveys since 2004. This reinforces our belief that methodological improvements have resulted in superior
estimates relative to those in the past and they are used as the basis for our forecast.

Based on the latest FAA assumptions about fleet attrition and aircraft utilization along with GAMA aircraft
shipment statistics, the active general aviation fleet is estimated to have increased 0.2 percent in 2009,
to 229,149. Despite the increase in the active fleet, general aviation flight hours are estimated to have
decreased 10.3 percent in 2009 to 23.3 million.

Student pilots are important to general aviation and the aviation industry as a whole. Although in decline for
many years now, the economic recession experienced in 2009 seems to have had an especially significant
impact on the number of student pilots. In 2009, according to statistics compiled by the FAA’s Mike
Monroney Aeronautical Center, the number of student pilots decreased by 10.8 percent. This is the fifth
consecutive year of decline in this category and the largest decline in recent history. The average age of a
U.S. pilot in 2009 was 45.3 years old.

24
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

FAA Workload
In 2009, FAA facilities experienced the sharpest decline in activity since 1982. Despite lower fuel prices, air
traffic activity fell in response to weak demand caused by the recession and the poor financial condition of
the industry.

Total activity at combined FAA and contract tower airports was 52.9 million operations in 2009, down 10.4
percent from 2008 and 23.0 percent below the peak activity level recorded in 2000. Commercial activity
(the sum of air carrier and commuter/air taxi) at combined FAA and contract towers declined by 9.9 percent
in 2009. Air carrier operations were down 6.9 percent while commuter/air taxi operations fell 13.8 percent.
Commercial operations in 2009 were 14.3 percent lower than their peak in 2005.

Non-commercial activity (the sum of general aviation and military) at combined FAA and contract towers fell
by 10.7 percent in 2009, with general aviation activity (28.0 million) down 11.7 percent and military activity
(2.6 million) up 1.1 percent. General aviation activity has declined nine of the past ten years since 1999.

At the end of 2009, non-commercial aircraft activity was 28.6 percent below the activity in 2000.
AIRCRAFT ACTIVITY AT
COMBINED FAA AND CONTRACT TOWERS
FISCAL YEARS 2002 - 2009
50.0

40.7
40.0 38.5 37.9
37.0 35.8 35.9 34.2
30.5
MILLIONS

30.0
25.2 26.1 25.2 25.3 24.8
24.2 24.2
22.3
20.0

10.0

0.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
NON-COMM ER CIAL COM M ERCIAL

The FAA pays close attention to the trends occurring at the 35 Operational Evolution Partnership (OEP)
airports. These airports represent the top 35 airports in the country in terms of passenger activity (except
CLE and PIT) and account for about 74 percent of commercial passengers. Although commercial activity
at the OEP airports exceeded pre-9/11 peak activity levels in 2005, subsequent industry restructuring has
resulted in a drop in combined commercial activity at these airports since. In 2009, commercial activity at
the OEP airports fell by 7.9 percent and was 11.2 percent below pre-9/11 activity levels. All of the OEP 35
airports recorded decreases in activity with the largest declines occurring at Cincinnati (down 23.8 percent)
and Tampa (down 17.9 percent). As a result, only 12 airports exceeded 2000 peak activity levels during
fiscal year 2009, down from 17 in the previous year.

25
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

12 OEP AIRPORTS EXCEEDED

PRE-SEPTEMBER 11TH LEVELS DURING FY 2009
FY 2009 VS. FY 2000 COMMERCIAL ACTIVITY
130

120

PERCENT OF FY 2000 OPS

110

100

90

80
JFK CLT LAS DEN IAH FLL SLC MSP ATL PHL DCA MEM

Since 2000 there has been a pronounced shift in demand to low-cost carriers which is reflected in the
relative growth of commercial operations across the OEP 35 airports. Commercial operations at New
York Kennedy (up 22.7 percent), Charlotte (up 22.3 percent), and Las Vegas (up 20.8 percent), are up the
greatest relative to their pre-September 11th activity levels. Commercial operations at Pittsburgh (down
69.5 percent) and St. Louis (down 55.5 percent) show the largest declines from pre-9/11 levels. These
activity level shifts reflect the impact of the restructuring of the airline industry. American’s acquisition
of TWA resulted in a consolidation of operations away from TWA’s St. Louis hub, while the merger of US
Airways and America West has led to a dramatic shrinking of US Airways’ operations in Pittsburgh.

23 OEP AIRPORTS
ARE BELOW PRE-SEPTEMBER 11TH LEVELS
FY 2009 VS. FY 2000 COMMERCIAL ACTIVITY
100

90
PERCENT OF FY 2000 OPS

80

70

60

50

40

30

20
N A D R L DW I O CO W X IA A W D X A S X E G L T
SA LG OR EW HN M BW SF M DT PH M TP DF IA PD SE BO LA CL CV ST PI

In 2009, total activity at FAA en route centers (40.1 million) fell 11.6 percent from the previous year.
Commercial activity declined 9.6 percent, with air carrier operations down 6.8 percent and commuter/air
taxi operations down 16.0 percent. Non-commercial activity was down 17.8 percent in 2009 as general
aviation and military activity fell 17.7 and 18.0 percent, respectively. In 2009, air carrier operations were
11.1 percent below their 2000 activity levels while operations for the general aviation and military user
groups were 27.9 and 28.6 percent below their 2000 activity levels, respectively.

26
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

AIRCRAFT HANDLED AT
FAA EN ROUTE CENTERS
FISCAL YEARS 2002 – 2009
40.0
35.1 33.8 34.7 34.0
33.8
35.0
31.6 31.9 30.8
30.0

MILLIONS 25.0

20.0

15.0 12.4
12.1 11.9 12.4 12.3 12.1
11.3
9.3
10.0

5.0

0.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

COMM ERCIAL NON-COMMERCIAL

27
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

 AA AEROSPACE FORECAST FISCAL YEARS

F
2010 – 2030
Developing forecasts of aviation demand and activity levels continues to be challenging as the aviation
industry evolves and prior relationships change. In times of amplified volatility, the process is filled with
uncertainty, particularly in the short-term. Even though the highly cyclical U.S. aviation industry went into
a downward spiral during 2009, history has shown the demand for air travel is resilient and growth will
return. With the start of 2010, the lingering questions are 1) how much economic recovery will be required
to jumpstart the industry back to a period of growth, and 2) when will the recovery occur?

By the end of FY 2009, carriers had executed 13 consecutive months of year over year reductions in
domestic capacity. The capacity cutbacks were necessary to control costs in the face of plummeting
demand for air travel. As the recession deepened carriers instituted fare sales to minimize financial losses.
These fare sales led to record high load factors and record declines in yield. The capacity cuts that
persisted through 2009 are expected to level off during 2010, with yields expected to turn positive by year
end.

Given the current instability in the global economy, there is much uncertainty as to the timing and strength
of a recovery in aviation demand. Nevertheless, the FAA has developed a set of assumptions and forecasts
consistent with the emerging trends and structural changes currently taking place within the aviation
industry. The FAA is confident that these forecasts accurately predict future aviation demand, however due
to the large uncertainty of the operating environment the variance around the forecasts is wider than in prior
years.

The commercial aviation forecasts and assumptions are developed from econometric models that explain
and incorporate emerging trends for the different segments of the industry. In addition the commercial
aviation forecasts are considered unconstrained in that they assume there will be sufficient infrastructure to
handle the projected levels of activity. These forecasts do not assume further contractions of the industry
through bankruptcy, consolidation, or liquidation.

The commercial aviation forecast methodology is a blended one. The starting point for developing the
commercial aviation forecasts (air carriers and regionals) is the future schedules published in the Official
Airline Guide (OAG). To generate the short-term forecast (two years out) current monthly trends are used
in conjunction with published monthly schedules to allow FAA forecasters to develop monthly capacity
and demand forecasts for both mainline and regional carriers for fiscal and calendar years 2010-2011. The
medium to long-term forecasts (2012-2030) are based on results of econometric models.

The general aviation forecasts rely heavily on discussions with industry experts and the results of the 2008
General Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey. The assumptions have been updated by FAA analysts to
reflect more recent data and developing trends, as well as further information from industry experts.

The FAA also presents the forecasts and assumptions to industry staff and aviation associations, who
are asked to comment on the reasonableness of the assumptions and forecasts. Their comments and/or
suggestions have been incorporated into the forecasts as appropriate.

28
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

Economic Forecasts
For this year’s Aerospace Forecast, the FAA is using economic forecasts developed by Global Insight, Inc.
to project domestic aviation demand. Furthermore, the FAA uses world and individual country economic
projections provided by Global Insight, Inc. to forecast the demand for international aviation services.
Annual historical data and economic forecasts are presented in tabular form in Tables 1 through 4. U.S.
economic forecasts are presented on a U.S. government fiscal year (October through September) basis.
International forecasts are presented on a calendar year basis.

Data suggest that the bottom of the recession was in June, 2009, and Global Insight expects the pace of
the recovery to be slow and not strong enough to halt the decline in jobs until later in 2010. The recovery is
not V-shaped, but instead is more W-shaped. It isn’t until 2011 that economic growth moves above 3% on
a sustained basis.

There are a number of key issues surrounding the economy that remain a concern and how these are
resolved will determine the future path of the recovery. Among these issues are the size of the federal
deficit and taxes, when will the Federal Reserve begin to raise interest rates, when will housing prices begin
to recover, and how long will households continue to rein in their spending. The forecast assumes that
there will be no additional fiscal stimulus and that the Federal Reserve will continue to keep interest rates at
or near zero for most of 2010. The forecast also assumes that the Fed will be able to successfully tighten
monetary policy without sending the economy back into recession and that tax rates on both personal
income and for corporations will gradually increase from current levels.

Global Insight’s economic forecast has the end of the U.S. recession in the 3Q of FY 2009. The recovery
that follows is a relatively weak recovery as credit remains tight and consumer spending is sluggish. On a
quarter-by-quarter basis for the next two years U.S. economic growth is projected to range from a low of
1.8 percent in 2Q FY 2010 to a high of 3.7 percent in 4Q FY 2011.

U.S. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL GROW TH
FY 2010 AND 2011 BY QUARTER
4.0 3.7
3.6
3.5
ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

3.0 2.8
2.6 2.7
2.5
2.2
2.0 1.8 1.8
1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
2 009-04 2010-01 2010-02 201 0-03 2010-04 20 11-01 2011-02 2011-03
Fiscal Y ear 2010 Fiscal Year 2011

29
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

Consumer spending is by far the largest component of the U.S. economy and one of the features of this
recession has been the decline in consumer spending. Burdened by high debt and rising unemployment,
consumer spending fell in 2009. The recovery in consumer spending is projected to be the weakest of the
postwar era, as households struggle to reduce debt burdens and rebuild retirement assets.

In the medium term, between 2011 and 2015, U.S. economic growth is projected to average 3.0 percent
per year with rates ranging between 2.6 and 3.6 percent. Consumption growth remains muted as
households continue to rebuild their balance sheets and taxes are increased. Beyond 2015 U.S. real
GDP growth slows to around 2.6 percent annually for the balance of the forecast period. The long-term
stability of the U.S. economic growth is dependent on continued growth in the workforce, the capital stock,
and improved productivity. Given the unprecedented amount of both fiscal and monetary support to the
economy, a major risk to continued U.S. economic growth is inflation. These inflationary pressures, if
unchecked, could force up inflation and bond yields and lessen domestic demand.

U.S. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

2009 - 2030
4.0
3.6
3.2
3.0
ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6

2.0
1.5
1.0

0.0

-1.0

-2.0

-3.0
(2.9)
-4.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015-30

Global Insight projects the price of oil, as measured by Refiners’ Acquisition Cost, to increase by 14.2
percent after declining by 46.6 percent in 2009. Oil prices are projected to increase steadily to just over
$90 per barrel by 2016 and then increase slightly less than inflation for the balance of the forecast period,
reaching $104.45 per barrel by 2030.

30
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

REFINERS’ ACQUISITION COST

PERCENT CHANGE FISCAL YEARS 2009 - 2030
20.0
14.2

10.0

ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

2.7
0.0

-10.0

-20.0

-30.0

-40.0

(46.6)
-50.0
2009 2010 2010-30

After falling 0.3 percent in FY 2009, the inflation rate (as measured by the CPI) is expected to rise 1.4
percent in 2010 and 1.9 percent in 2011 as the economy recovers and growth accelerates. After 2012
consumer price inflation is projected to remain in a narrow range between 1.7 and 2.0 percent percent a
year for the balance of the forecast.

To reflect the uncertainty in the projection of economic growth, the FAA Aerospace Forecast uses high
and low economic growth cases along with the base forecast. The high and low economic growth cases
are based on Global Insight’s September 2009 long range optimistic and pessimistic forecasts. The high
economic growth case incorporates higher population growth, capital spending, and productivity relative to
the base case. Due to the higher productivity, inflation is lower than in the base case. Real GDP growth in
the high case averages 3.2 percent annually compared to real GDP growth of 2.6 percent annually that is
contained in the base case. The low economic growth case incorporates lower population growth, capital
spending, and lower productivity than the base case. In contrast, in the low economic case, inflation is
higher than in the base case due to lower productivity growth. Real GDP growth in the low case averages
1.7 percent annually over the forecast horizon. Further details about the high and low scenarios can be
found in Appendix A.

World Economy

Worldwide economic activity is estimated by Global Insight to have declined by 2.4 percent in 2009,
marking the first contraction in global GDP since the Great Depression. The advanced economies (U.S.,
Canada, Europe, and Japan) posted declines in output ranging from -1.5 percent to -2.9 percent. The
emerging market economies grew 0.8 percent, 4.8 points below what they grew in 2008. Many emerging
market economies posted declines in real GDP including Mexico, Taiwan, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine.
In 2010, global economic growth is projected to resume (2.5 percent) as stimulus plans in the U.S. and
in China provide the basis for recovery. Recovery in Europe is projected to be more gradual than in the
U.S. as the housing market corrections have come later and policy actions are more cautious. Beyond
2010 through the balance of the forecast period, world real GDP is projected to increase an average of 3.2
percent per year.

31
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

GROSS DOM ESTIC PRODUCT

BY WORLD REGION
CALENDAR YEARS 2009 - 2030
6.0

4.6 4.6

ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

3.7
4.0
3 .2 3.2
2.4 2.3 2.4
2.0
2.0
1.2

0.0
(0.1)

-2.0

(2.6) ( 2.4)
(3.0)
(3.4)
-4.0
2009 20 10 201 0-30

Europe Latin America Pacific Canada World

The Asia/Pacific and Latin America regions will continue to have the world’s highest economic growth
rates. These regions are expected to see their economic activity grow at annual rates of 4.6 and 3.7 percent
a year, respectively, over the forecast period. In Asia, China, with a population of 1.3 billion, is forecast to
grow 7.4 percent a year, becoming the world’s second largest economy. India, with a population of 1.2
billion, is projected to see its GDP triple in size, growing at an average rate of 6.2 percent a year during
the forecast period. In contrast, Japan (currently the world’s second largest economy) grows at just 0.9
percent a year over the forecast period as structural impediments and an aging population limit growth.
Canadian and European GDP growth is anticipated to rise at more moderate rates of 2.4 and 1.7 percent a
year, respectively, over the forecast period.

Aviation Traffic and Activity Forecasts

Total traffic and activity forecasts for commercial air carriers (the sum of mainline and regional carriers) are
contained in Tables 5 through 9. These tables contain year-to-year historical data and forecasts.

Mainline air carrier traffic and activity forecasts and the forecast assumptions are contained in Tables 10
through 18, 20, and 22. These tables contain year-to-year historical data and forecasts.

Regional carrier forecasts and assumptions are found in Tables 23 through 26. These tables provide year-
to-year historical and forecast data.

Table 19 provides year-to-year historical and forecast data for cargo activity. Table 21 provides year-to-
year historical and forecast data for the cargo jet fleet.

General aviation forecasts are found in Tables 27 through 30. These tables provide year-to-year historical
data and forecasts.

Tables 31 through 33 provide forecasts of aircraft activity at FAA and contract facilities.

32
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

Commercial Aviation Forecasts

System capacity is projected to shrink 1.6 percent in 2010. In the domestic market, mainline carrier
capacity is forecast to shrink for the third consecutive year (down 1.6 percent) while capacity for the
regional carriers grows from 2009 levels (up 1.9 percent). In the international sector, capacity is forecast
to fall in the Atlantic and Pacific market as growth returns to the Latin market. Mainline carrier system
capacity drops 2.0 percent, while regional carrier capacity grows 2.0 percent.

Passenger demand shows slight growth in 2010 with system RPMs forecast to grow 0.3 percent (flat for
mainline carriers and up 4 percent for regional carriers) as passenger enplanements increase 0.5 percent
(down 0.7 percent for mainline carriers and up 4.6 percent for regional carriers). Growth is projected to
accelerate in 2011 with system RPMs and passengers increasing 2.6 and 2.1 percent, respectively, on a
capacity increase of 2.5 percent. For the overall forecast period, system capacity is projected to increase
an average of 3.4 percent a year. Supported by a growing U.S. economy and falling real yields, system
RPMs are projected to increase 3.5 percent a year, with regional carriers (4.2 percent a year) growing faster
than mainline carriers (3.4 percent a year). System passengers are projected to increase an average of
2.6 percent a year, with regional carriers growing faster than mainline carriers (3.0 versus 2.5 percent a
year). By 2030, U.S. commercial air carriers are projected to fly 1.9 trillion ASMs and transport 1.2 billion
enplaned passengers a total of 1.6 trillion passenger miles. Planes will remain crowded, with load factor
projected to grow moderately during the early years of the forecast period and then tapering during the
mid to latter years, growing by 2.7 points over the forecast period to 82.4 percent in 2030. Passenger trip
length is also forecast to increase by more than 221 miles over the forecast to 1,314.5 miles (up 10.5 miles
annually). The growth in passenger trip length reflects the faster growth in the relatively longer international
and domestic trips as compared to shorter-haul flights.

U.S. COMM ERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

SYSTEM ENPLANEM ENTS
FISCAL YEARS 2009 - 2030
1,250
MILLIONS of PASSENGERS

1,000

750

500

250

0
2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

MAINLINE REGIONALS

33
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

Domestic Markets

After a dramatic decline during FY 2009, domestic capacity in FY 2010 is projected to fall slightly, down
1.1 percent. Following a record reduction of 9.5 percent in 2009, mainline carrier capacity drops 1.6
percent as these carriers show reluctance to increase capacity in a continuing environment of uncertainty.
Regional carriers are slated to grow in FY 2010, up 1.9 percent, after posting their first decline in capacity
since deregulation during FY 2009. Domestic commercial carrier capacity recovers modestly in 2011 (up
1.6 percent) with mainline carriers growing slower than regional carriers, 1.4 percent versus 2.6 percent,
respectively, and then increases at an average annual rate of 3.2 percent for the balance of the forecast
(2011-2030). For the entire forecast period (2009–2030), domestic capacity is projected to increase at an
average annual rate of 2.9 percent, just slightly faster than economic growth, with mainline carriers growing
slower (2.7 percent per year) than the regional carriers (4.0 percent per year).

U.S. COM MERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

DOM ESTIC ASM S
2009 - 2030
8.0

4.1
3.0
Annual Percent Growth

4.0
1.9

0.0

(1.6)
-4.0

(5.1)
-8.0

(9.5)
-12.0
20 09 2010 2010-30
Mainline Regionals

The slow pace of the economic recovery in the U.S. inhibits RPM growth during the first year of the forecast
(up 0.4 percent), with traffic projected to grow faster in the second half of the year. Mainline carrier RPMs
are projected to contract 0.2 percent during 2010, while regional carrier RPMs grow 3.9 percent. By
2011, traffic growth improves with RPMs increasing 1.8 percent as consumer confidence improves and
corporate travel budgets increase. Driven by continued economic growth and falling real yields, domestic
RPM growth for the remainder of the forecast (2011-2030), averages 3.3 percent per year. For the overall
forecast period (2009-2030) domestic RPMs are projected to grow an average of 3.1 percent a year.
Mainline carriers are projected to grow more slowly than the regional carriers throughout the forecast period
(averaging 2.9 versus 4.2 percent a year, respectively).

Enplanements are forecast to grow 0.4 percent in 2010, following a 7.3 percent decline in 2009. Similar to
RPMs, passenger volume is expected to pick up in 2011 with the strengthening economy (up 1.8 percent),
and then grow at an average rate of 2.6 percent per year for the period 2011-2030. Over the entire forecast
period, domestic enplanements are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.4 percent with
mainline carriers growing more slowly than regional carriers (2.2 versus 3.0 percent a year, respectively).

34
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

U.S. COM MERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

DOMESTIC RPM S
2009-2030
8.0
4.2
3 .9 3.1

Annual Percent Growth

4.0

0.0
(0.2)
-4.0
(4.3)

-8.0
(8.2)

-12.0
2009 2010 2010-30
Mainline Regionals

In spite of record capacity cutbacks triggered by a steep drop in demand, carriers lost pricing power during
2009, with nominal yield falling 8.9 percent (down 8.6 percent in real terms). Despite continued capacity
reductions, lackluster demand will keep fares in check in 2010, resulting in a modest increase in nominal
yield of 3.9 percent (2.5 percent in real terms). For the entire forecast period, increases in nominal yields
are projected to grow at a rate of 1.1 percent a year, while in real terms they are projected to decline an
average of 0.8 percent a year. The decline in real yields over the forecast period assumes competition
between carriers and convergence of cost structures between network carriers and their low-cost
counterparts. The convergence arises from gains in productivity as network carriers retire fuel inefficient
aircraft and hold the line on labor costs while low-cost carriers contend with aging fleets, maturing work
forces, and unionization.

Domestic commercial carrier activity (departures) at FAA air traffic facilities is projected to grow more slowly
than passenger traffic over the forecast period (1.9 percent per year for departures versus 3.1 percent for
RPMs). This reflects increased carrier efficiencies in three operational measures—aircraft size, load factor,
and trip length.

Domestic aircraft size8 increased in 2009 by 1.3 seats to 121.9 seats. The increase was partly driven
by a large increase in aircraft size by the regional carriers (up 2.2 seats) and the grounding of older, fuel
inefficient aircraft (i.e. MD-80’s and 737-300/400/500) by the mainline carriers (up 1.4 seats). The increase
in regional aircraft size was caused by the retirement of 50-seat jet aircraft as larger 70-90 seat jet aircraft
entered the fleet. Domestic seats per aircraft falls in 2010 (down 0.3 seats) as mainline carriers continue
to cut capacity while their regional counterparts grow. Over the course of the forecast, domestic seats per
aircraft are projected to gradually increase to 123.6 seats by 2030, an average of 0.1 seats per year.

The FAA’s projection of domestic carrier average aircraft size is greatly influenced by carrier fleet plans,
publicly known aircraft order books and FAA’s expectations of the changing domestic competitive
landscape. In the near-term (through 2011), the forecast incorporates several carrier assumptions:
1) mainline carriers desire to constrain ASM capacity growth; 2) network carrier “own metal” service on
longer-haul routes; 3) the retirement of older inefficient aircraft (many of which are narrow-body);

8 Defined as seats per mile flown and computed by dividing ASMs by miles flown.

35
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

4) the shifting of wide-body and larger narrow-body aircraft to international services, and 5) growing use of
70-90 seat regional jet aircraft.

In the longer-term, network carriers will replace their wide-body and larger narrow-body aircraft in their
domestic route networks with smaller, next generation, narrow-body aircraft. In addition, some carriers,
such as JetBlue and US Airways, are turning to smaller aircraft, like the 100-seat Embraer 190, to
supplement their route structure. The use of smaller narrow-body aircraft allows mainline carriers to better
serve their customers by boosting frequency, as well as improve profitability by more closely matching
supply (the number of seats) with demand (the number of passengers).

Mainline carrier domestic aircraft size increased in 2009 by 1.4 seats to 151.4 seats, but is projected to fall
0.8 seats in 2010. Domestic aircraft size for mainline carriers is projected to fall to 150.4 seats in 2011
and then gradually increase thereafter for the balance of the forecast. Overall, average aircraft size for the
mainline group will increase by only 0.5 seats between 2009 and 2030, going from 151.4 to 151.9.

Regional carrier aircraft size flown domestically is projected to grow at a much faster pace than their
mainline counterparts. The faster growth in regional aircraft size is stimulated by the wave of 70-90 seat
regional jet aircraft that are entering the fleet as well as reductions in the 50 seat and under jet fleet.
Regional carriers are better equipped to support operations of their mainline partners by providing capacity
that complements market demand. The greater number of the larger 70- and 90-seat regional jets in
the fleet coupled with significant 50-seat jet retirements over the next few years increases the average
seating capacity of the regional fleet from 55.0 seats in 2009 to 56.8 seats by 2011. Over the course of the
forecast, average seats per aircraft for the regional carriers increases by 0.5 seats per year to 65.4 seats in
2030. The changing aircraft fleet mix is narrowing the gap between the size and aircraft types operated by
the mainline and regional carriers.

Commercial carrier domestic load factor increased 1.1 points during FY 2009 to an all-time high of 80.4
percent. Pushing load factors to record levels was the mainline carrier group which posted a load factor of
81.3 percent. Load factors for the regional carriers increased 0.6 points to 74.3 percent. In 2010, domestic
load factor is forecast to increase 1.2 points to 81.6 percent as mainline and regional carrier load factors
rise 1.2 and 1.5 points, respectively. Thereafter, commercial carrier domestic load factor gradually rises to
83.2 percent by 2030.

In 2009 domestic passenger trip length fell 3.4 miles to 870.5 miles, after increasing 3.7 miles in 2008.
Passenger trip length is forecast to decline by 0.7 miles in 2010 and by 0.3 miles in 2011 as carriers
continue to restructure their networks and realign capacity. After 2011, trip length is projected to steadily
increase for the balance of the forecast, reaching 997.2 miles by 2030. The increase in trip length reflects
increases in both mainline and regional carrier trip length. Mainline carrier trip length increases as thinner,
shorter haul markets are relinquished to regional partners and replaced with flying of longer domestic
trips. Regional carrier trip length increases as flying in shorter haul markets is abandoned and/or reduced
as more of the larger 70 and 90-seat regional jets penetrate thinner longer-haul markets previously only
accessible with mainline equipment.

Another key factor in predicting aviation activity relative to passenger demand is the level of connecting
versus non-stop (origin-destination) traffic. However, as the current cycle of U.S. airline industry
restructuring unfolds and hub structures change, the impact on local communities and airport activity levels
can vary significantly.

36
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

The FAA analyzes the ratio of passenger enplanements to origin-destination (O&D) passengers over time
to identify changes in connecting versus non-stop traffic. This ratio is an indicator of the tendency of the
average passenger to connect during a typical journey. The closer the ratio is to 1.0, the more passengers
fly on a point-to-point routing. As the chart below shows, the overall ratio for the U.S. domestic industry
varied within a narrow band between 1995 and 2002. After 2002, the ratio trailed downward until the end
of 2008. The decline in the ratio during this six year period is characterized by a drop in connectivity by the
network carriers and rising passenger share for the low-cost carriers. The uptick in the ratio during 2009
indicates an increase of hubbing by the carriers. The FAA’s forecast recognizes the changing pattern of
domestic traffic connectivity and these trends are captured in the forecast’s passenger enplanement totals.

U.S. COMMERCIAL CARRIERS

DOMESTIC ENPLANEMENTS PER OD PAX
1995-2009
1.45

1.40
1.38 1.38 1.38
1.37 1.37 1.38 1.37
1.36 1.36
1.35 1.34
1.35 1.34
1.32 1.32 1.32

1.30

1.25

1.20
95

96
97

98

99

00

01

02

03
04

05

06

07

08
09
19

19
19

19

19

20

20

20

20
20

20

20

20

20
20
Sou r ces: D O T T 100 an d O & D Sur vey

International Markets
U.S. and Foreign Flag Carriers

FAA provides forecasts of total international passenger demand (the sum of U.S. and foreign flag carriers)
for travel between the United States and three world travel areas--Atlantic, Latin America (including Mexico
and the Caribbean), and Asia/Pacific--as well as for U.S./Canadian transborder traffic. These forecasts are
based on historical passenger statistics from the United States Immigration and Naturalization Services
(INS) and Transport Canada, and on regional world historical data and economic projections from Global
Insight, Inc.

Total passenger traffic between the United States and the rest of the world is estimated to total 147.1
million in CY 2009, 4.7 percent lower than in 2008. As the worldwide economy begins to recover from the
recession of 2009, international passengers grow 3.3 percent in 2010. As the world economic recovery
gains solid footing in 2011, passenger growth is up 5.0 percent. For the balance of the forecast period,
stable worldwide economic growth leads international passenger growth to average 4.2 percent a year, and
totaling 347.9 million in 2030.

Over the entire forecast period (2009-2030), high economic growth in the Asia-Pacific market drives
passenger growth averaging 5.1 percent a year for this region. India, China, and Taiwan (passenger growth
of 8.0, 7.9, and 7.8 percent a year, respectively) are forecast to be the fastest growing markets in the region.
Growth in the Japan market (the largest and most mature in the region) is projected to be well below the

37
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

regional average at 2.4 percent a year.

In the Atlantic region, open skies between the European Union and the United States and increasing
non-stop service to Africa and the Middle East helps to fuel passenger growth of 3.9 percent a year over
the forecast period. Over the 21-year forecast horizon, average annual passenger growth in the top three
Atlantic markets-- the United Kingdom, Germany, and France, is 4.2, 3.6, and 4.1 percent, respectively.

In the Latin America region, passenger growth between 2009 and 2030 is forecast to average 4.3 percent
a year. The highest growth is projected for Brazil (average annual growth of 7.0 percent) while the largest
market in the region, Mexico, grows at an average of 4.1 percent a year. The slowest rates of growth are
projected to occur in the Bahamian and Jamaican markets (averaging growth of 0.5 and 2.6 percent a year,
respectively).

Growth in the Canadian transborder market is forecast to be higher than that of the domestic U.S. market
(2.4 percent), averaging 3.4 percent a year over the forecast period.

U.S. & FOREIGN FLAG CARRIERS

PASSENGERS TO/FROM THE U.S.
2009 - 2030
6.0
AVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

5.1

4.3
3.9
4.0
3.4

2.0

0.0
Atla ntic Latin America Asia/P acific Canada
Transborder

U.S. Flag Air Carriers

In 2009, international U.S. commercial air carrier capacity fell 3.5 percent from 2008 levels. Capacity falls
an additional 2.8 percent in 2010 as carriers further cut capacity due to reduced demand for air travel. In
the Atlantic and Pacific markets capacity decreases 5.5 and 2.2 percent, respectively, in 2010. Conversely,
capacity in the Latin region during the same period grows 1.8 percent reflecting a rebound from the
impact of H1N1 flu virus. With a strong economic recovery in the global economies expected for 2011,
international capacity grows modestly at 4.7 percent, and averages 4.6 percent a year for the remainder
of the forecast period. Strong growth in the medium to long-term portion of the forecast reflects favorable
U.S. and world economic activity.

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 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

INTERNATIONAL ASMS
2009 - 2030
9.0

5.5
6.0 5.0 4.6

Annual Percent Growth

3 .9
3.0
1.8

0.0

-3.0
(2.0) (2.2) (2.8)
(3.0 ) (3.5)
-6.0 (5.5)
(6.7)
-9.0
2009 2010 2010-30
Atlantic Latin Pacific Total

U.S. commercial air carrier international RPMs fell 5.6 percent in 2009 as enplanements decreased 6.6
percent. RPMs are projected to increase slightly in 2010 (up 0.3 percent), as increases in the Latin and
Pacific regions offset a modest decline in the Atlantic region. In 2011, U.S. carrier international RPMs
increase 4.7 percent led by growth in the Atlantic market (up 5.2 percent) and followed by growth in the
Latin (up 4.6 percent) and Pacific markets (up 3.7 percent). For the balance of the forecast, RPMs increase
an average 4.7 percent a year with the fastest growth in the Latin region. A similar pattern is forecast for
enplanement growth. International enplanements are projected to increase 0.9 percent in 2010, and then
grow 4.0 percent in 2011. Over the balance of the forecast period, enplanements are forecast to increase
an average of 4.1 percent a year with the fastest growth in Pacific and Latin markets (up 5.0 and 4.4
percent a year, respectively).

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

INTERNATIONAL RPMS
2009 - 2030
9.0
5 .6
ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

6.0 5 .1 4 .7
3 .7 4 .0

3.0
1 .2
0 .3
0.0

( 1 .9 )
-3.0
(3 .4 )

-6.0 (6 .0 ) (5 .6 )

-9.0
(9 .4 )

-12.0
2009 2010 2010-30
Atl antic Latin Pacific Total

39
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

The slower growth in U.S. carrier international passengers over the period 2009-2030 (4.0 percent a year)
compared to total international passengers (4.2 percent a year) reflects a small decline in market share
for U.S. airlines over the forecast period. Forecasts of international demand assume U.S. and foreign flag
carriers will benefit from the favorable economic activity in both the United States and world markets.

International load factor for U.S. commercial carriers was 78.1 percent in 2009. Load factor is expected
to increase 2.5 points to be 80.6 percent in 2010 as capacity growth lags traffic growth in all three world
markets. International load factor is projected to fall 0.1 points in 2011 and rise slowly for the remainder of
the forecast to be 81.1 percent in 2030.

International passenger real yields for mainline carriers were down 12.6 percent in 2009. The largest
decrease was in the Atlantic market (down 15.1 percent), followed by the Pacific (down 11.8 percent) and
Latin market (down 7.8 percent) reflecting a lack of pricing power by U.S. carriers and the significant fall in
demand resulting from the global recession. Buoyed by strengthening demand, international real yields are
projected to increase 3.1 percent in 2010 and then increase by 4.7 percent in 2011. For the remainder of
the forecast period, real yield decreases an average of 1.0 percent a year. In nominal terms, international
yields are forecast to increase 4.6 percent in 2010, increase 6.7 percent in 2011 and then grow at an annual
rate of 0.9 percent over the remainder of the forecast. The decline in real yields assumes competitive
pressures will hold the line on fare increases. In international markets, this takes the form of expanded
open sky agreements and global alliances.

Commercial Air Carriers — Air Cargo

Historically, air cargo activity tracks with GDP. Additional factors that have affected the growth in air cargo
traffic include the global financial crisis, declining real yields, and globalization. Significant structural
changes have occurred in the air cargo industry. Among these changes are the following: air cargo security
regulations by the FAA and TSA; market maturation of the domestic express market; modal shift from air
to other modes (especially truck); increases in air fuel surcharges; growth in international trade from open
skies agreements; use of all-cargo carriers (e.g., FedEx) by the U.S. Postal Service to transport mail; and
increased use of mail substitutes (e.g., e-mail).

The forecasts of Revenue Ton Miles (RTMs) are based on several assumptions specific to the cargo
industry. First, security restrictions on air cargo transportation will remain in place. Second, most of
the shift from air to ground transportation has occurred. Finally, long-term cargo activity will be tied to
economic growth.

The forecasts of RTMs were based mainly on models that link cargo activity to GDP. Forecasts of domestic
cargo RTMs were developed with real U.S. GDP as the primary driver. Projections of international cargo
RTMs were based on growth in world GDP, adjusted for inflation. The distribution of RTMs between
passenger carriers and all-cargo carriers was forecast based on an analysis of historic trends in shares,
changes in industry structure, and market assumptions.

Total RTMs are forecast to grow 3.4 percent in 2010 and again in 2011 by 4.9 percent. For the balance of
the forecast period, driven by steady economic growth, total RTMs are forecast to increase at an average

40
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

annual rate of 5.1 percent. The forecast of 86.6 billion RTMs in 2030 represents an average annual increase
of 5.0 percent over the entire forecast period.

Domestic cargo RTMs are forecast to grow 1.3 percent in 2010 and 2.0 percent in 2011, driven by a slow
recovery in the U.S. economy. Between 2011 and 2030, domestic cargo RTMs are forecast to increase
at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent. The forecast of 18.5 billion RTMs in 2030 represents an average
annual increase of 2.1 percent over the entire forecast period.

The freight/express segment of domestic air cargo is highly correlated with capital spending. Thus, the
growth of this segment in the future will be tied to growth in the economy. The mail segment of domestic
air cargo will be affected by price and substitution (electronic mail).

The all-cargo carriers have increased their share of domestic cargo RTMs flown from 65.4 percent in 1997
to 86.2 percent in 2009. This is because of significant growth in express service by FedEx and United
Parcel Service coupled with a lack of growth of domestic freight/express business for passenger carriers.
The all-cargo share is forecast to increase to 90.4 percent by 2030 based on increases in wide-body
capacity for all-cargo carriers and security considerations.

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS

RTMS 2009 - 2030
9.0
4.7 6.4
6.0
ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

2.2
3.0 1.3
0.0
-3.0
-6.0
-9.0
- 12.0
- 15.0
- 18.0
(17.7)
- 21.0
- 24.0
(23.0 )
- 27.0
2009 20 10 2010-30
Dom estic Inter na tio nal

International cargo RTMs are forecasted to rise 4.7 percent in 2010 reflecting a recovery from the global
economic downturn and grow 6.6 percent in 2011 as world economic growth rebounds and trade expands.
For the balance of the forecast period, international cargo RTMs are forecast to increase an average of 6.3
percent a year based on projected growth in world GDP. The forecast 68.1 billion RTMs in 2030 represents
an average annual increase of 6.3 percent over the entire forecast period.

The share of international cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers increased from 63.3 percent in 2008 to
63.6 percent in 2009. Beyond 2009, the all-cargo share of RTMs flown is forecast to increase modestly to
69.9 percent by 2030.

41
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

Commercial Aircraft Fleet

The number of commercial aircraft is forecast to grow from 7,132 in 2009 to 10,274 in 2030, an average
annual growth rate of 1.8 percent or 150 aircraft annually. The commercial fleet will shrink by a net 107
aircraft in 2010 after shrinking by 323 aircraft in 2009 as the dramatic fall off in demand and high fuel prices
compelled carriers to prune their fleets. In comparison, the US commercial fleet contracted by 262 aircraft
between 2000 and 2003, the last downturn in aviation.

U.S. COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT FLEET

CALENDAR YEARS 2009 – 2030

6.0
4.0
ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

2.7 2.8
1.9 1.6
2.0
0.0
(0.5)
-2.0
-4.0
(3.4) (3.3) (4.3)
-6.0
-8.0
- 10.0

- 12.0 (11.0)
2009 2010 2010-30
MAINLINE-AC CARGO REGIONAL

The number of passenger jets in the mainline carrier fleet decreased by 129 aircraft in 2009 and is expected
to fall another 17 aircraft in 2010 before increasing in 2011 by 40 aircraft. For the period 2010-2030, the
mainline air carrier passenger fleet increases an average of 85 aircraft a year, totaling 5,342 aircraft in 2030.
The narrow-body fleet (including E-190’s at JetBlue and US Airways) is projected to grow by 60 aircraft
annually over the period 2010-2030; the wide-body fleet grows by 25 aircraft a year as the Boeing 787 and
Airbus A350’s enter the fleet.

The regional carrier passenger fleet is forecast to decrease by 113 aircraft in 2010 as carriers remove large
numbers of 50 seat and smaller regional jets. After 2010, the regional carrier fleet is expected to increase
by an average of 45 aircraft (1.6 percent) over the remaining years of the forecast period, totaling 3,401
aircraft in 2030. The number of regional jets (90 seats or fewer) at regional carriers is projected to grow
from 1,710 in 2009 to 2,441 in 2030, an average annual increase of 1.7 percent. All the growth in regional
jets over the forecast period occurs in the larger 70 and 90-seat aircraft. During the forecast period, all
regional jets of 50 or less seats are removed from the fleet, reflecting the relaxation of scope clauses. The
turboprop/piston fleet is expected to grow from 902 units in 2009 to 960 in 2030. Turboprop/piston aircraft
are expected to account for just 28.2 percent of the regional carrier passenger fleet in 2030, down from a
42.4 percent share in 2009.

Cargo large jet aircraft are forecast to increase by 55 aircraft over the next 2 years (from 854 to 909 aircraft
in 2011), and total 1,531 aircraft in 2030. The narrow-body jet fleet is projected to increase by 10 aircraft a
year over the 21-year forecast period as older 757’s and 737’s are converted to cargo service. The wide-
body jet fleet is projected to increase by 22 aircraft yearly.

42
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

General Aviation

The FAA forecasts the fleet and hours flown for single-engine piston aircraft, multi-engine piston,
turboprops, turbojets, piston and turbine powered rotorcraft, light sport, experimental and other (which
consists of gliders and lighter than air vehicles). The FAA forecasts “active aircraft,”9 not total aircraft. The
FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours flown, and utilization from the General Aviation and Part 135 Activity
Survey (GA Survey) as baseline figures upon which assumed growth rates can be applied. Beginning with
the 2004 GA Survey there were significant improvements to the survey methodology. Coinciding with
the changed survey methodology, large changes in many categories were observed, both in the number
of aircraft and hours flown. The results of the 2008 GA Survey are consistent with the results of surveys
since 2004, reinforcing our belief that the methodological improvements have resulted in superior estimates
relative to those in the past. Thus, they are used as the basis for our forecast. Because results from the
GA Survey are not published until the following year, the 2008 statistics are the latest available. Figures
for 2009 are estimated based on other activity indicators, and the forecasts of activity begin in 2010 and
continue through 2030.

The demand for business jet aircraft has grown over the past several years. New product offerings, the
introduction of very light jets, and increasing foreign demand have helped to drive this growth. In addition,
corporate safety/security concerns for corporate staff, combined with increasing flight delays at some U.S.
airports have made fractional, corporate, and on-demand charter flights practical alternatives to travel on
commercial flights. Despite the hard impact of the recession felt in the business jet market, the forecast
calls for robust growth in the long term outlook and predicts business usage of general aviation aircraft will
expand at a faster pace than that for personal/recreational use.

The active general aviation fleet is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 0.9 percent over the
21-year forecast period, growing from an estimated 229,149 in 2009 to 278,723 aircraft by 2030. The more
expensive and sophisticated turbine-powered fleet (including rotorcraft) is projected to grow at an average
of 3.0 percent a year over the forecast period, with the turbine jet portion increasing at 4.2 percent a year.

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT

CALENDAR YEARS 2009 – 2030

4.0

3.0
ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

3.0
2.4 2.3

2.0

1.0
1.0

0.2 0.2
0.0
2009 2010 2010-30

TOTAL TUR B INE S

9 An active aircraft is one that flies at least one hour during the year.

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 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

With the advent of a relatively inexpensive twin-engine very light jet (VLJ), many questions have arisen as to
the future impact they may have. The lower acquisition and operating costs of VLJs were believed to have
the potential to revolutionize the business jet market, particularly by being able to sustain a true on-demand
air-taxi service. While initial forecasts called for over 400 aircraft to be delivered a year, events such as the
recession along with the bankruptcy of Eclipse and DayJet have led us to temper more recent forecasts.
The worldwide delivery of VLJs this year has held up relatively well compared to the turbine jet market as
a whole, helped in large part by the introduction of Embraer’s Phenom 100 to the market. Despite that, the
impacts of the recession have led to dampened expectations. The current forecast calls for 440 VLJs to
enter the US fleet over the next three years, with an average of 216 aircraft a year for the balance of the
forecast period.

The number of active piston-powered aircraft (including rotorcraft) is projected to decrease from the 2008
total of 166,514 through 2017, with declines in both single and multi-engine fixed wing aircraft, but with the
smaller category of piston-powered rotorcraft growing. Beyond 2017 active piston-powered aircraft are
forecast to increase to 172,613 by 2030. Over the forecast period, the average annual increase in piston-
powered aircraft is 0.2 percent. Although piston rotorcraft are projected to increase rapidly at 3.4 percent
a year, they are a relatively small part of this segment of general aviation aircraft. Single-engine fixed-wing
piston aircraft, which are much more numerous, are projected to grow at a much slower rate (0.2 percent
respectively) while multi-engine fixed wing piston aircraft are projected to decline 0.8 percent a year. In
addition, it is assumed that VLJs and new light sport aircraft could erode the replacement market for
traditional piston aircraft at the high and low ends of the market respectively.

Starting in 2005, a new category of aircraft (previously not included in the FAA’s aircraft registry counts) was
created: “light sport” aircraft. At the end of 2008 a total of 6,811 active aircraft were estimated to be in this
category while the forecast assumes the fleet will increase approximately 825 aircraft per year until 2013.
Thereafter the rate of increase in the fleet tapers considerably to about 335 per year. By 2030 a total of
16,311 light sport aircraft are projected to be in the fleet.

The number of general aviation hours flown is projected to increase by 2.5 percent yearly over the forecast
period. A large portion of this growth will occur in the short term post recession period, where record low
utilization rates experienced in 2009 will return to normal trends, particularly in the turbine jet category.
As with previous forecasts, much of the long term increase in hours flown reflects strong growth in the
rotorcraft and turbine jet category. Hours flown by turbine aircraft (including rotorcraft) are forecast to
increase 4.1 percent yearly over the forecast period, compared with 1.1 percent for piston-powered aircraft.
Jet aircraft are forecast to account for most of the increase, with hours flown increasing at an average
annual rate of 6.1 percent over the forecast period. The large increases in jet hours result mainly from the
increasing size of the business jet fleet, along with measured recovery in utilization rates from recession
induced record lows. Rotorcraft hours, relatively immune to the economic downturn when compared to
other categories, are projected to grow by 3.0 percent yearly. The light sport aircraft category is expected
to see increases in hours flown on average of 5.9 percent a year, which is primarily driven by growth in the
fleet.

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 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

HOURS FLOWN
IN GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT
CALENDAR YEARS 2009 - 2030
6.0
4.3
4.0

ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

2.7
2.0
0.6
0.0
-2.0 -1.8
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
-10.0
-10.3
-12.0
-12.1
-14.0
200 9 20 10 201 0- 30

TOTA L TUR B INE S

The number of active general aviation pilots (excluding air transport pilots) is projected to be 501,875 in
2030, an increase of over 52,000 (up 0.5 percent yearly) over the forecast period. Commercial pilots are
projected to increase from 125,738 in 2009 to 139,100 in 2030, an average annual increase of 0.5 percent.
The number of student pilots is forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 0.8 percent over the
forecast period, growing from 72,280 in 2009 to 86,050 in 2030. In addition, FAA is projecting that by the
end of the forecast period a total of 14,100 sport pilots will be certified. As of December 31, 2009, the
number of sport pilot certificates issued was 3,248 reflecting a steady increase in this new “entry level” pilot
certificate that was only created in 2005. The number of private pilots is projected to grow at an average
yearly rate of 0.2% over the forecast period to total 219,050 in 2030.

FAA Workload Forecasts

FAA and Contract Towers

Activity at the 508 FAA (264) and contract towers (244) totaled 52.9 million operations in 2009, down 10.4
percent from 2008. Activity is projected to decrease 2.7 percent in 2010, with declines in both commercial
and non-commercial operations. Growth in activity resumes in 2011 (0.8 percent) led by increases in non-
commercial activity (up 1.1 percent). For the balance of the forecast, activity grows at an average rate of
1.6 percent per year, reaching 69.6 million operations in 2030.

Most of the growth over the forecast period results from increased commercial aircraft activity (up 1.7
percent annually). Air carrier activity is projected to shrink 2.4 percent in 2010 as carriers continue to cut
capacity as the unemployment rate continues to rise. In 2011, air carrier activity is projected to increase
0.7 percent as airline capacity begins to rebound, and grows an average of 2.3 percent per year over the
forecast period. Commuter/air taxi operations are forecasted to fall 1.9 percent in 2010 then remain flat in
2011. For the balance of the forecast period, commuter/air taxi operations are projected to increase 1.6
percent per year.

General aviation activity fell 11.7 percent in 2009 with steep declines in both itinerant (down 11.2 percent)
and local (down 12.2 percent) activity. Activity is projected to fall again in 2010 (down 3.1 percent)
reflecting the residual impact of the 2009 recession and then rise modestly in 2011 and 2012 (up 1.2

45
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

percent both years) as falling unemployment promotes the growth of flight hours and operations despite
slightly higher oil prices. For the entire forecast period, general aviation activity at towered airports is
projected to increase an average of 1.1 percent a year, to 35.1 million operations in 2030. General aviation
activity at combined FAA/contract towers grows in line with the modest increase forecasted for general
aviation piston hours already cited. Most operations at the smaller towers are in piston aircraft, while those
at the largest airports tend to be turbine operations. Military activity rose 1.1 percent in 2009.

Operations10 at FAA TRACONs (Terminal Radar Approach Control) fell 9.7 percent in 2009, the fifth year
in a row. They are projected to decline again in 2010 (down 1.1 percent) as the effects of the recession
continue to be felt with decreases in both commercial and non-commercial activity. TRACON operations
are forecast to rise 1.0 percent in 2011 before increasing at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent for the
balance of the forecast. For the entire forecast period, TRACON operations grow an average of 1.5 percent
per year, totaling 54.4 million in 2030.

TRACON OPERATIONS
FISCAL YE ARS 2009 - 2030

3.0 2.1
1.7
ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

0.0
(1.1) (1.7)
-3.0

-6.0

-9.0
(9.7)
(10.1)
-12.0
2009 2010 2010-30

TOTAL COMMERCIAL

En Route Centers

The number of IFR aircraft handled at FAA en route traffic control centers decreased 11.6 percent to 40.1
million in 2009, with all user groups posting declines in activity. Activity at en route centers is forecast
to decrease by 1.6 percent in 2010 in the wake of decreased commercial and general aviation activity.
Growth in en-route activity resumes in 2011 (up 1.4 percent) led by increases in air carrier activity. After
2011, through the balance of the forecast period, en route activity increases 2.5 percent annually, reaching
64.1 million aircraft handled in 2030. Over the entire forecast period, commercial activity is projected to
increase at an average annual rate of 2.7 percent, reflecting increases in the commercial fleet and aircraft
stage lengths. During the same period, general aviation activity is projected to grow 0.7 percent per year,
reflecting modest growth in business aviation. Military activity is held constant at the 2009 activity level
throughout the forecast period.

10 T
 RACON operations consist of itinerant IFR and VFR arrivals and departures at all airports in the domain of the TRACON as well as IFR and
VFR overflights.

46
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

AT FA A E N ROUT E CENTE RS
FISCAL YEARS 2009-2030
4.0 2.9
2.5
2.0

ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

0.0
-2.0
(1.6) (1.6)
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
-10.0
(9.6)
-12.0
(11.7)
-14.0
2009 2010 2010-30
TOTAL COMMERCIAL

47
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

UNMANNED AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS

International industry development, growth, and investment over the past several years have allowed
Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) to evolve from remotely piloted vehicles with limited capabilities to
semi and fully autonomous systems for commercial applications. There are some 100 U.S. companies,
academic institutions, and government organizations developing over 300 UAS designs. Currently, the U.S.
government uses unmanned aircraft for military combat, surveillance, and reconnaissance.

The UAS term is used because it includes the entire system (aircraft, data links, control station and other
elements). UAS’s also vary widely in size, shape, and capabilities. Some unmanned aircraft weigh 1,900
pounds and can remain aloft for 30 hours or more, because there is no need for them to land to change
pilots. Some are 6 inches long. Others can perform dangerous missions without risking loss of life.

In its broadest context, there are three major market segments: military, civil government, and commercial.
While market drivers and dynamics among these segments differ significantly, they share common
objectives: to provide a service that cannot be accomplished by manned aircraft and/or to perform an
existing manned operation at a lower cost. Because of increased interest and activity, UAS have the
potential to become a major part of the commercial aerospace industry within the United States.

Federal agencies are planning to increase their use of UAS’s. State and local governments envision using
UAS’s to aid in law enforcement and firefighting. Potential commercial uses are also possible, for example,
in real estate photography or pipeline inspection. UAS’s could perform some manned aircraft missions with
less noise and fewer emissions.

Because the industry is in its infancy, forecasts of the number of units are relatively few and have
considerable variation. Recent work by RTCA, Inc., has identified the drivers and impediments to future
growth in the aforementioned three market segments and has included forecasts of the number of UAS
units by market segment. The forecasts generally assumed that 1)commercial activities would not begin
until 2018; 2) no significant technological or extraordinary demand would accelerate the introduction of
UAS’s; 3) costs of UAS systems would decline as the technology matures and as the scale of operations
increases. Currently, the majority of UAS systems are operated by the military and have little impact on
the NAS. However as the technology matures, increasing numbers of units will be operated by civil and
commercial users, and could have greater impacts on the NAS. However the volume of units is relatively
small – approximately 15,000 units by 2020 and 30,000 units by 2030.

48
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION

The Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Office of Commercial Space Transportation (AST) licenses and
regulates U.S. commercial space launch activity including launch vehicles and non-federal launch sites
authorized by Executive Order 12465 and 49 US Code, Subtitle IX, Chapter 701 (formerly the Commercial
Space Launch Act). Title 49 and the Executive Order also direct the Department of Transportation (carried
out by the FAA) to encourage, facilitate, and promote commercial launches. AST’s mission is to license and
regulate commercial launch and reentry operations and non-federal launch sites to protect public health
and safety, the safety of property, and the national security and foreign policy interests of the United States.

Overview
Commercial space transportation generally consists of the launch of satellites into orbit for either
commercial or government customers by private, non-government entities, called launch services
providers. Commercial space transportation also covers suborbital launches, where a payload or vehicle is
launched on a trajectory that briefly goes into space but returns to Earth rather than going into orbit, as well
as the reentry of objects from space to Earth.

The FAA licenses several expendable vehicles used for commercial orbital launches. The most active
include the Pegasus and Taurus, two small vehicles built and operated by Orbital Sciences Corporation
(OSC); the Delta IV, a heavy-class vehicle and the Delta II, a medium-class vehicle, both built by United
Launch Alliance (ULA), a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, and marketed by Boeing
Launch Services (BLS); the Zenit-3SL, a heavy-class vehicle built by the Ukrainian company KB Yuzhnoye
for the multinational Sea Launch venture; the Atlas V, a heavy-class vehicle built by ULA and marketed by
Lockheed Martin Commercial Launch Services (LMCLS), and the Falcon 1, a small launch vehicle built and
operated by SpaceX. Commercial vehicles under development include the heavy-class Falcon 9 vehicle
by SpaceX and the medium-class Taurus II by OSC. From 1989 through the end of 2009, DOT/FAA has
licensed 200 orbital and suborbital commercial launches.

Experimental Permits, for suborbital reusable vehicle development and test flights, were first granted
by FAA in 2006 to Blue Origin and Armadillo Aerospace. Some permits have been granted for vehicles
participating in the Lunar Lander Challenge, a competition to demonstrate technologies potentially
applicable to both future lunar spacecraft and commercial suborbital vehicles, with $2 million in prizes
offered by NASA’s Centennial Challenges program.

Six commercial spaceports, located in Alaska, California (Vandenberg Air Force Base and Mojave Air
and Space Port), New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Virginia, currently have FAA launch site operator licenses.
Several other commercial spaceports around the United States are under development.

Review of 2009
There were five FAA-licensed launches, all orbital, in 2009, down from 11 in 2008. BLS performed two
launches, one Delta II launch of the WorldView 2 earth observation satellite, and a Delta IV launch of a
meteorological satellite. Sea Launch conducted one Zenit-3SL launch of a commercial communications

49
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

satellite. There was one Falcon 1 launch which orbited a Malaysian earth observation satellite. LMCLS
performed one Atlas V launch of a commercial communications satellite. There were no suborbital permit
flights during 2009.

FAA Licensed and Permitted Launches, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010 Forecast
Licensed Launches 11 5 4-7
Permitted Launches 5 0 2-4

Worldwide there were 24 orbital commercial launches in 2009, compared to 28 in 2008. In addition to the
five FAA-licensed launches, Europe performed five commercial launches of its Ariane 5, Russia conducted
ten launches of various vehicles, and Land Launch, a joint venture of Sea Launch and Space International
Services, performed three launches of the Zenit-3SLB. There were 78 total worldwide commercial, civil, and
military launches in 2009, with commercial launches representing about 30 percent of the total. For more
details, see the Year in Review report available online at:
http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/reports_studies/year_review/.

Global Forecast
In May 2009, the FAA and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC)
published their annual global forecast for commercial launch demand, the 2009 Commercial Space
Transportation Forecasts. The report forecasts an average of 26.7 commercial orbital launches per year of
geosynchronous orbit (GSO) and non-geosynchronous orbit (NGSO) payloads through 2018. That annual
average includes 15.7 launches of medium-to-heavy vehicles to deploy GSO satellites, 8.3 launches of
medium-to-heavy vehicles to NGSO, and 2.7 launches to NGSO by small vehicles.

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 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

Commercial GSO launches are used for communications satellites with masses ranging from 2,000 to over
6,000 kilograms; satellite masses have tended to grow over time although there is still interest in smaller
satellites. Demand for commercial NGSO launches spans a number of markets, including commercial
remote sensing, science and technology demonstration missions (often for nations without an indigenous
launch capability), and the replenishment and replacement of low Earth orbit communications satellite
systems first launched in the late 1990s.

The GSO and NGSO forecasts are not a prediction of what will actually be launched but instead represent
the expected demand for launch services, based on a variety of inputs. The complete forecast report is
available at: http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/reports_studies/forecasts/.

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 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

RISKS TO THE FORECAST

The FAA is “cautiously optimistic” that its current outlook for aviation demand and activity can be achieved.
However, this year’s forecast is driven, at least in the short-term, by a number of factors including security
and pandemic illnesses, as well as the strength of the economic recovery and the weakened financial
health of the commercial aviation industry. As the attempted bombing of a Northwest airliner on Christmas
Day 2009 reminds us, terrorism remains among the greatest risks to achieving the forecast. Because
of aviation’s high visibility and global reach, concerns remain about international terrorism. Any terrorist
incident aimed at aviation would have an immediate and significant impact on the demand for aviation
services.

During 2009 there was much discussion about the possible impacts of the H1N1 or swine flu virus. As of
January 2010 there had not been a widespread serious outbreak of the virus in the U.S. However, events
in Mexico during the spring of 2009 provide some evidence of the damaging impacts that such an event
could inflict. When a severe outbreak of the H1N1 virus broke out in Mexico, authorities quickly moved to
place severe limits on aviation. Airlines responded by slashing capacity in the face of falling demand, and
not until well after the restrictions and warnings on travel were lifted did carriers begin to cautiously restore
service to the region.

Although oil prices were considerably lower in 2009 than they were for much of 2008, there is still
considerable uncertainty as to the level of oil prices once economic growth resumes. FAA’s baseline
forecast (based on Global Insight’s Oct 2009 forecast) calls for steady increases in oil prices after 2009.
The increases are relatively modest, with the price of oil only exceeding $100/barrel after 2025. Some
forecasters are calling for a much sharper increase in the price of oil. The U.S. Energy Information
Administration (EIA) in its 2010 Annual Energy Outlook is projecting oil prices to exceed $100/barrel by
2015-2016. While lower oil prices give consumers an impetus for additional spending, including air travel,
and increases the chances for industry profitability, higher oil prices could lead to further shifts in consumer
expenditures away from aviation, dampening a recovery in air transport demand. Furthermore, higher oil
prices, especially in the near term, could wipe out any chance of industry profitability, continue to pressure
airline costs, delay balance sheet improvement and discourage expansion plans or new orders for aircraft
as carriers focus on maintaining and increasing cash balances.

Recent data suggests that the global economy has begun to grow again, but the data also indicate that the
growth is concentrated in a relatively few countries. As a result, the ensuing economic recovery may not
be a balanced one and there is considerable doubt about the strength and sustainability of the expansion.
The baseline forecast assumes that growth in the U.S. and China will be significantly higher than in the
other large economies – Japan and the European Union. Doubts remain over the strength of demand in
both Japan and in the European Union as these areas continue to be constrained by structural economic
problems, institutional constraints, and the authorities’ reluctance to take decisive action. Furthermore the
steps that were taken to turn the global economy around may prove to be excessive, since the resulting
surge in liquidity growth seems to be inflating asset bubbles and exacerbate existing global imbalances.
Once the global economy recovers from the current downturn, there could be an increasing risk from
asset bubbles and macroeconomic imbalances, which could end up in a deeper, more prolonged, and less
manageable recession and financial crisis. The current forecasts assume strong passenger growth for
travel between the United States and other world regions. Any slowing of global economic activity could
seriously inhibit the growth in world passenger demand.

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 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

The outlook for further consolidation via mergers and acquisition (M&A) appears to be rather limited.
Although there is still talk in the industry about the benefits of consolidation, aside from Delta/Northwest
merger and the Continental/United alliance there appears to be little scope for further mergers in the US
airline industry. Continued tightness in the credit markets has reduced the ability of the industry to finance
additional mergers. However, US airlines are exploring other options including global alliances. Many of
the major carriers in the US are members of global alliances that operate with some measure of anti-trust
immunity from the US DOT. While anti-trust immunity may provide flexibility to airline operators across
borders, it may create an anti-competitive environment in the marketplace. These market consolidating
vehicles, particularly the anti-trust immunity provisions, may invite increased regulatory scrutiny. If such
oversights are launched in the future, this will complicate the evolving structure of the airline industry and
may impact demand via new regulations.

The forecast assumes the addition of sizable numbers of regional jets into the fleet of regional carriers.
However, the regional carriers’ future is closely linked to those of the larger network carriers. As
demand continues to slowly recover, increased financial pressures on regional operators have appeared.
Furthermore, if a large network carrier should cease to exist (because of financial difficulties or merger),
certain regional carriers could find themselves either saddled with excess capacity or lack of sufficient
capacity, or lack of feed traffic. The experience of the Delta and Northwest bankruptcies saw opportunities
for regional flying substantially reduced.

Business and corporate aviation witnessed a significant downturn in 2009. The length of the slow down
and the terms of a recovery are largely based upon the future prospects of economic growth and corporate
profits. Future uncertainty in these leading indicators could pose a risk to the forecast, but the risk is not
limited to these factors. Public perception of business and corporate aviation, potential environmental
regulations and taxes, along with increased security measures placed on business jets, will place
downward pressure on the forecast.

Other factors, such as new and more efficient product offerings and increased competition from new
entrant manufacturers, serve to broaden the potential of the industry. Estimates show that a record number
of new business jet deliveries are overseas and, with the potential of loosening regulations on the use of
airspace in foreign countries, the scenario for business jet manufacturers looks all the more promising.
Raising the amount of security restrictions, and subsequent travel hassles placed on airline passengers,
could make corporate jet travel increasingly appealing. A combination of some of these favorable factors
may reach a tipping point, leading to a large on-demand air taxi industry. Although acknowledging the
possibility of such an outcome, given recent trends and the large amount uncertainty, the FAA takes a more
conservative view on the future prospects of such an industry.

The mix of aircraft operating at most large hubs is also expected to become increasingly complex
over the forecast period. The expected increases in the numbers of regional jets and business jets will
increase the complexities of the national airspace system and make the FAA’s job more challenging. The
increased complexity of the mix of aircraft serves to compound the increases in workload strictly due to the
increasing demand for aviation services projected over the forecast period.

Although activity at most U.S. airports fell in 2009, delays remained at historically high levels at many U.S.
airports and at four airports (ATL, CLT, DEN, and PHL) delays reached record levels. As demand recovers
and workload increases, congestion and delays could become a critical limit to growth over the forecast
period. FAA’s forecasts of both demand and workload are unconstrained in that they assume that there
will be sufficient infrastructure to handle the projected levels of activity. Should the infrastructure be

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 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

inadequate and result in even more congestion and delays, it is likely that the forecasts of both demand
and workload would not be achieved. The Department of Transportation and the FAA are examining a
number of options to manage congestion, but the specific measures to be implemented and therefore their
impact are unknown at this time.

There are concerns that aviation’s impact on the environment could potentially restrict the ability of
the aviation sector to grow to meet national economic and mobility needs. Airport expansion or new
construction is often a contentious issue because of noise, air quality, and water quality concerns.
Concerns about the climate impacts of aviation emissions are also growing. Although aviation currently
accounts for 2 to 3 percent of climate change impacts, greenhouse emissions from the sector are expected
to grow unless aggressively mitigated with new technology, renewable fuels, operational improvements and
market measures. Market measures intended to control emissions, e.g., various emissions trading systems
and charges being discussed, would add significant costs to the aviation sector that could effectively
reduce available funds for needed investments in new technology. Energy concerns are also rising, driven
by spikes in fuel prices, supply and security issues, and the concerns about fossil fuel contributions to
global climate change. Lack of progress on improving the environmental and energy outlook for the future
fleet can drive more restrictions via standards or operating limitations on the fleet in service, which in turn
can depress growth By contrast, breakthroughs in quieter, cleaner aircraft technologies and renewable
fuels could reduce environmental and energy constraints on the forecast.

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 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

 PPENDIX A
A
ALTERNATIVE FORECAST SCENARIOS
Uncertainty abounds in all industries, but especially in the commercial air travel industry. Increasingly, the
FAA has been requested to provide alternative scenarios to their baseline forecasts. These requests come
from policy makers, private industry, associations, and consultants. This year, the FAA has responded to its
customers, fully understanding that more information, not less, will help stakeholders to better prepare for
the future.

To create the baseline forecast, economic assumptions for both U.S. and international regions from Global
Insight’s October 2009 forecast were used to generate enplanements, mainline real yield, and nominal
yield. The baseline forecast of passenger trip length (an input variable used to forecast mainline real yield)
was derived from recent historical trends and analyst judgment. To develop the alternative scenarios,
assumptions from the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios contained in the September 2009 edition of
Global Insight’s U.S. long range forecast were used. Inputs from these scenarios were substituted for the
baseline scenario inputs to create a “high” and “low” traffic, capacity, and yield forecast. The baseline
forecast trip length was adjusted in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios based on the movement of oil
prices in Global Insight’s alternative forecasts relative to the baseline forecast.

International passengers and traffic are primarily determined by GDP Thus, the baseline forecast of GDP
for both the U.S. and international regions is modified using the optimistic and pessimistic forecasts of
GDP described above in order to create a high and low case.

Scenario Assumptions
FAA’s baseline forecast assumes that the economy recovers from the current downturn and suffers no
major mishaps such as large oil price shocks, swings in macroeconomic policy, or financial meltdowns. In
the alternative scenarios, the economy is postulated to proceed smoothly as well, however at a different
pace than projected under the baseline forecast. Projections for economic growth in Global Insight’s
alternative scenarios are rooted in demographics. In Global Insight’s optimistic forecast scenario,
population grows more rapidly than in the baseline due to higher net immigration. The reverse is true
for the pessimistic forecast; population grows more slowly than the baseline forecast due to slower net
immigration.

FAA’s high case forecast uses Global Insight’s optimistic forecast. The optimistic forecast is characterized
by lower inflation and faster growth in the labor force and capital stock than in the baseline forecast. In
this scenario productivity growth is higher and potential output climbs more rapidly, with GDP (used as an
input variable to the FAA’s base, high and low forecasts of enplanements) growing about 0.7 percentage
points quicker per year than the baseline forecast. Conversely, FAA’s low case forecast is based on Global
Insight’s pessimistic scenario. In the low case forecast, inflation runs higher and the labor force and capital
stock growth run lower than in the baseline. As a result, the U.S. economy grows 0.7 percentage points
slower per year than in the baseline due to slower productivity and lower potential output growth.

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 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

FISCAL YEARS 2009 - 2030

4.0
3.3 3.5
3.3

ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

3.0
2.6 2.7 2.6

1.9 1.9 1.9

2.0

1.0

0.0
2009-2030 2009-2015 2015-2030

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

The level of oil prices are determinants in the supply of and demand for air travel and have a direct impact
on the profitability of the industry. In all three forecast scenarios prices remain high by historical standards.
In the baseline forecast, oil prices rise as the world economy recovers from the recession, but are kept in
check as technological improvements act as a counterbalance to rising prices. In the baseline, the refiners
acquisition cost (RAC) of oil almost doubles between 2009 and 2030, rising from $54 to $104 per barrel. In
the high case, RAC increases at a slower pace landing at $87 per barrel at the end of the forecast period.
The high case is characterized by availability of energy and gains in technology which help to temper prices
compared to the baseline. In the low case forecast, scarcity of oil and lower productivity gains create
upward pressure in oil prices. In this scenario, RAC rises to $141 by 2030.

U.S. REFINERS’ ACQUISITION COST

FISCAL YEARS 2009, 2015, 2030

150 140.6

125

93.9 104.4
100
86.9 86.6
$ Per Barrel

72.7
75
56.1 54.2
48.3
50

25

0
2009 2015 2030

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

The price of energy is one of the critical drivers in the growth of consumer prices over the forecast period.
In the high case forecast the consumer price index (CPI) grows at an average rate of 1.7 percent per year
(compared to growth of 1.9 percent annually in the baseline) as energy prices, wages, and import prices
grow more slowly than in the baseline. In the low case forecast the opposite assumptions hold with energy
prices, wages and import prices rising more rapidly compared to the baseline. In the low case, CPI grows
an average of 2.8 percent annually over the forecast period.

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 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – ALL URBAN CONSUMERS

FISCAL YEARS 2009-2030

4.0

ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

3.1
3.0 2.8

2.3
1.9
2.0 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.7
1.5

1.0

0.0
2009-2030 2009-2015 2015-2030

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

The baseline passenger trip length forecast is predicated upon analyst judgment and recent trip length
trends. Carrier behavior as a result of volatile fuel prices during 2008 was the basis for adjusting trip
length in the alternative forecasts. During 2008, high fuel costs made flying of some longer haul routes
cost prohibitive (thus unprofitable), resulting in lower trip length compared to prior years. Since the FAA’s
low case forecast is depicted by higher fuel prices relative to the baseline forecast, it is assumed that trip
length rises at a slower pace than in the baseline forecast. In FAA’s high forecast, fuel prices are lower than
projected in the baseline, pushing trip length up as lower fuel prices make flying longer-haul routes more
affordable.

Alternative Forecasts
Passengers

In the baseline forecast, system passengers are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 2.6 percent
per year over the forecast horizon (with domestic and international passengers up 2.4 and 4.0 percent,
respectively), notching one billion passengers in the year 2023. In the high case, passengers grow at a
quicker pace, averaging 3.3 percent per year (up 3.1 percent domestically and 4.8 percent internationally).
This scenario is marked by a more favorable business environment, lower inflation, and lower fuel prices
which make the price of flying more affordable to business and leisure travelers. In the high case, one
billion passengers are forecast for 2021, two years earlier than predicted in the baseline forecast. The low
case is characterized by increased costs of capital resulting from higher interest rates, weakened consumer
confidence brought on by rising unemployment, and higher inflation. In this scenario passengers grow an
average of 1.9 percent per year (domestic up 1.8 percent and international up 2.8 percent). In the low case,
one billion passengers are reached in 2028, five years behind the baseline forecast.

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 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

SYSTEM ENPLANEMENTS
FISCAL YEARS 2009 - 2030

4.0

ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

3.3 3.4
3.1
3.0 2.6 2.7
2.4
1.9 2.0
2.0
1.6

1.0

0.0
2009-2030 2009-2015 2015-2030

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Revenue Passenger Miles

The forecast of RPMs is produced by multiplying assumptions for trip length in each forecast scenario by
passengers from the same scenario. Thus, the assumptions used to create the trip length and passenger
forecasts drive RPM growth. In the baseline forecast, system RPMs grow at an average annual rate of
3.5 percent per year, with domestic RPMs up 3.1 percent annually and international RPMs up 4.4 percent
annually. In the high case, a more optimistic economic environment drives RPMs higher than the baseline,
with growth averaging 4.3 percent per year (domestic and international RPMs up 3.9 and 5.2 percent,
respectively). In the low case, a more pessimistic economic environment slows RPM growth to an average
of 2.5 percent annually (up 2.2 percent domestically and up 3.2 percent internationally).

SYSTEM REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

FISCAL YEARS 2009 - 2030

5.0
ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

4.3 4.4
3.9
4.0
3.5 3.6
3.2
3.0
2.4 2.6

2.0 1.7

1.0

0.0
2009-2030 2009-2015 2015-2030

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

58
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

Available Seat Miles

The available seat miles (capacity) forecast is developed by multiplying revenue passenger miles by
load factor. In the base case, system capacity is forecast to increase an average of 3.4 percent annually
over the 21-year forecast horizon (with average growth of 2.9 percent domestically and 4.3 percent
internationally). In the high case, capacity grows at a faster clip than in the baseline forecast, averaging
growth of 4.1 percent annually (up 3.7 percent domestically and up 5.0 percent internationally). Carriers
increase capacity compared to the baseline forecast to accommodate increased travel demand brought
about by a more favorable economic environment. In the low case, demand for air travel is lower than in
the baseline, thus system capacity grows at a slower pace of 2.4 percent annually (domestic up 2.1 percent
annually and international up 3.0 percent annually).

S Y S T E M A VA IL A B L E S E A T M IL E S
F IS C AL Y E A RS 2 00 9 - 20 30

5.0
ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

4.4
4.1
4.0
3.6
3.4 3.4

3.0 2.8
2.6
2.4

2.0 1.7

1.0

0.0
2009-2030 2009-2015 2015-2030

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Load Factor

System load factors over the 21-year forecast period are relatively the same for all three forecast scenarios,
rising from 79.7 percent in 2009 to 82.5 percent in 2030. In all three scenarios it is assumed that carriers
will keep load factors on the high side by actively managing capacity (seats) to more precisely meet
demand (passengers). The domestic load factor slowly grows from 80.4 percent to 83.2 percent over the
forecast horizon, while the international load factor grows from 78.1 to just over 81.0 percent during the
same period.

Yield

In the baseline forecast, nominal system yield increases 1.1 percent annually, going from 12.5 cents in 2009
to 15.9 cents in 2030. On a domestic basis, yield in the baseline forecast rises from 12.8 cents in 2009 to
16.1 cents in 2030, while international yield rises from 11.8 cents to 15.6 cents. System yield rises more

59
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

slowly in the high case, up 0.7 percent annually to be 14.5 cents at the end of the forecast period (domestic
and international yield increase to 14.7 cents and 13.9 cents, respectively). The slower growth in yield in
the high case is due to advancements in technology, gains in productivity, more favorable fuel prices, and
lower inflation. Increased competition is also assumed in this scenario. In the domestic market fares are
driven lower than baseline levels due to increased market overlap between low cost and legacy carriers.
In the international market, increased competition from growing liberalization puts downward pressure on
fares. In the low case, nominal yields rise more rapidly than in the baseline, growing an average of 2.3
percent annually, reaching 20.3 cents by 2030 (21.0 cents domestically and 19.0 cents internationally).
This scenario reflects higher inflation than in the baseline, forcing carriers to increase fares in order to cover
the higher costs of fuel, labor, and capital.

Passenger Trip Length

Over the 21-year forecast horizon, baseline system passenger trip length is assumed to grow an average of
10.5 miles per year. In the high case, passenger trip length grows 1.0 mile faster per year than in the base
case at 11.5 miles per year. In the high case, fuel prices are lower than in the baseline which allows carriers
to operate longer-haul routes more profitably. Conversely, the low forecast is characterized by fuel prices
that are higher than the baseline forecast. Higher fuel costs makes flying longer-haul routes less affordable
to the carriers; hence passenger trip length trails the baseline forecast by 3.0 miles per year, growing an
average of 7.5 miles per year.

60
 TABLE A-1
FAA FORECAST ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS*
FISCAL YEARS 2010-2030

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario
2009 2010 2015 2020 2030 09-10 09-15 10-20 09-30
Economic
Assumptions
Real Gross Domestic Product Pessimistic 12,972 12,936 14,511 16,206 19,298 -0.3% 1.9% 2.3% 1.9%
(BIL 05$) Baseline 12,996 13,189 15,233 17,392 22,382 1.5% 2.7% 2.8% 2.6%
Optimistic 13,003 13,386 15,936 18,655 25,886 2.9% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3%

Refiners Acquisition Cost - Pessimistic 56.1 67.5 93.9 103.7 140.6 20.4% 9.0% 4.4% 4.5%
Average - $ Per Barrel Baseline 54.2 61.9 86.9 92.8 104.4 14.2% 8.2% 4.1% 3.2%
Optimistic 48.3 40.6 72.7 89.0 86.6 -15.9% 7.0% 8.2% 2.8%

61
Real Personal Consumption Pessimistic 9,190 9,156 9,876 10,960 13,019 -0.4% 1.2% 1.8% 1.7%
Expenditures - (BIL 05$) Baseline 9,212 9,319 10,466 11,850 15,194 1.2% 2.1% 2.4% 2.4%
Optimistic 9,214 9,449 10,996 12,805 18,128 2.6% 3.0% 3.1% 3.3%

Consumer Price Index Pessimistic 2.14 2.16 2.45 2.80 3.84 1.2% 2.3% 2.6% 2.8%
All Urban, 1982-84 = 1.0 Baseline 2.14 2.17 2.39 2.62 3.16 1.4% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%
Optimistic 2.13 2.14 2.33 2.56 3.01 0.3% 1.5% 1.8% 1.7%

Real Disposable Income Pessimistic 9,923 9,807 10,719 12,470 15,216 -1.2% 1.3% 2.4% 2.1%
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

(BIL 05$) Baseline 9,949 10,002 11,292 13,162 16,942 0.5% 2.1% 2.8% 2.6%
Optimistic 9,978 10,207 11,827 14,111 19,616 2.3% 2.9% 3.3% 3.3%

Civilian Unemployment Rate Pessimistic 8.5 10.5 7.9 5.8 5.5 2.0 -0.1 -0.5 -0.1
(%) Baseline 8.5 10.0 7.4 5.6 5.2 1.5 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2
Optimistic 8.4 9.5 7.0 5.2 4.8 1.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2

* Source: Global Insight U.S. Macro Forecast

Baseline: Oct 2009; Optimistic: Sept 2009; Pessimistic: Sept 2009
 TABLE A-2
FAA FORECAST OF DOMESTIC AVIATION ACTIVITY
FISCAL YEARS 2010-2030

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario
2009 2010 2015 2020 2030 09-10 09-15 10-20 10-30
Domestic
Aviation Activity
Available Seat Miles Pessimistic 683.8 665.8 749.2 849.3 1,048.8 -2.6% 1.5% 2.5% 2.1%
(BIL) Baseline 683.8 676.2 788.5 926.5 1,253.6 -1.1% 2.4% 3.2% 2.9%
Optimistic 683.8 686.9 828.7 997.2 1,460.2 0.4% 3.3% 3.8% 3.7%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 549.5 543.0 617.8 703.7 872.2 -1.2% 2.0% 2.6% 2.2%
(BIL) Baseline 549.5 551.5 650.3 767.8 1,042.6 0.4% 2.8% 3.4% 3.1%

62
Optimistic 549.5 560.2 683.6 826.7 1,215.0 1.9% 3.7% 4.0% 3.9%

Enplanements Pessimistic 631.3 624.6 692.4 768.1 908.3 -1.1% 1.6% 2.1% 1.7%
(MIL) Baseline 631.3 634.1 723.1 821.4 1,045.6 0.4% 2.3% 2.6% 2.4%
Optimistic 631.3 642.6 753.9 876.0 1,195.8 1.8% 3.0% 3.1% 3.1%

Miles Flown Pessimistic 5,608.7 5,475.9 6,149.8 6,949.8 8,482.8 -2.4% 1.5% 2.4% 2.0%
(MIL) Baseline 5,608.7 5,562.7 6,476.1 7,581.2 10,139.4 -0.8% 2.4% 3.1% 2.9%
Optimistic 5,608.7 5,648.8 6,802.4 8,160.3 11,810.7 0.7% 3.3% 3.7% 3.6%
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

Departures Pessimistic 9,084.6 8,827.1 9,543.9 10,363.0 11,834.0 -2.8% 0.8% 1.6% 1.3%
(000s) Baseline 9,084.6 8,952.2 9,897.7 10,990.1 13,487.0 -1.5% 1.4% 2.1% 1.9%
Optimistic 9,084.6 9,091.5 10,385.3 11,795.5 15,512.7 0.1% 2.3% 2.6% 2.6%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 12.84 13.34 14.79 16.38 20.95 3.9% 2.4% 2.1% 2.4%
(cents) Baseline 12.84 13.34 14.18 14.73 16.08 3.9% 1.7% 1.0% 1.1%
Optimistic 12.84 13.10 13.52 13.99 14.72 2.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7%
 TABLE A-3
FAA FORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL AVIATION ACTIVITY
FISCAL YEARS 2010-2030

Historical FORECAST PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

Variable Scenario
2009 2010 2015 2020 2030 09-10 09-15 10-20 10-30
International
Aviation Activity
Available Seat Miles Pessimistic 281.7 269.1 316.1 380.2 523.6 -4.5% 1.9% 3.5% 3.0%
(BIL) Baseline 281.7 274.0 347.3 436.8 675.6 -2.8% 3.5% 4.8% 4.3%
Optimistic 281.7 275.1 353.0 456.1 787.6 -2.3% 3.8% 5.2% 5.0%

Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic 220.1 216.9 255.4 307.9 425.5 -1.5% 2.5% 3.6% 3.2%
(BIL) Baseline 220.1 220.7 280.5 353.2 547.9 0.3% 4.1% 4.8% 4.4%

63
Optimistic 220.1 221.7 285.3 369.3 639.8 0.7% 4.4% 5.2% 5.2%

Enplanements Pessimistic 72.7 72.2 82.8 97.4 129.4 -0.7% 2.2% 3.0% 2.8%
(MIL) Baseline 72.7 73.4 90.6 111.1 164.5 0.9% 3.7% 4.2% 4.0%
Optimistic 72.7 74.3 93.1 117.4 193.2 2.2% 4.2% 4.7% 4.8%

Miles Flown Pessimistic 1,298.7 1,244.0 1,443.4 1,715.9 2,317.8 -4.2% 1.8% 3.3% 2.8%
(MIL) Baseline 1,298.7 1,266.1 1,585.8 1,968.8 2,985.1 -2.5% 3.4% 4.5% 4.0%
Optimistic 1,298.7 1,271.7 1,611.2 2,056.4 3,479.2 -2.1% 3.7% 4.9% 4.8%
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

Departures Pessimistic 550.9 534.4 595.3 679.5 860.2 -3.0% 1.3% 2.4% 2.1%
(000s) Baseline 550.9 543.0 648.7 771.8 1,088.2 -1.4% 2.8% 3.6% 3.3%
Optimistic 550.9 549.7 666.9 814.9 1,274.2 -0.2% 3.2% 4.0% 4.1%

Nominal Passenger Yield Pessimistic 11.81 12.34 13.98 15.27 19.01 4.5% 2.9% 2.2% 2.3%
(cents) Baseline 11.81 12.34 13.66 14.27 15.55 4.5% 2.5% 1.5% 1.3%
Optimistic 11.81 11.40 12.47 13.01 13.93 -3.5% 0.9% 1.3% 0.8%
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

64
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

 PPENDIX B
A
FAA FORECAST ACCURACY
Forecasts, by their nature, have a degree of uncertainty incorporated in them. They involve not only
statistical analyses and various scientific methods, but also judgment, and reliance on industry knowledge
and the forecaster’s experience to incorporate industry trends not yet reflected in recent results. The FAA’s
annual Aerospace Forecast is no exception. Given the volatile nature of the U.S. airline industry, it is not
surprising that each year’s forecast would contain a certain degree of forecast variance. Therefore, FAA
forecasters have tried to build forecast models that give a consistent and predictable pattern of results.
Analysts relying on the forecasts produced by the models would then be able to adjust for the predictable
variance from actual results.

The table below presents an analysis of the variance from historical results for five key forecast metrics
during the FY 2003–FY 2009 forecast period. Although this brief period has experienced industry upheaval,
FAA’s forecast methodology remained consistent during this time. For these reasons, inclusion of prior
periods in an analysis of forecast variance might lead to inconclusive, or inaccurate, implications about the
accuracy of FAA’s current forecast methodology.

The table contains the mean absolute percent errors for the projected values versus the eventual results
for U.S. carriers’ domestic operations. Each metric has five values showing the relative forecast variance
by the number of years in advance the preparation of the forecast took place. For example, the 3 Years
column for ASM shows the mean absolute percent error was 8.9 percent for ASM forecasts prepared
3 years in advance. For the period under examination, preparation of the forecasts for FY 2006, FY 2007,
FY 2008 and FY 2009 occurred in FY 2004, FY 2005, FY 2006, and FY 2007 respectively.11

Presenting forecast variances from actual data in such a manner simplifies a review of longer-term trends.
Typically, one would expect the variances to decrease as the forecast year is closer to the year the forecast

11 It should be noted that the first forecasted year for each respective fiscal year is that very same year. Therefore, FY 2003’s first forecasted
year is FY 2003, and the third forecasted year is FY 2005. This also means that the 5 Years column in the table above consists of only two
observation points, while the 4 Years column is based upon three observations.

65
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

is prepared. Presenting forecast variances in this way allows an examination of changes in the relative
variances by time horizon, signaling when dramatic shifts in accuracy occur.

Examination of the forecast variances reveals several items. First, all the metrics examined, show declining
variances as the forecast time horizon decreases, as expected. The largest variances were found in
the forecasts of ASMs and Yield, the two variables most directly affected by carrier business decisions.
However, for both of these variables the largest declines in variance occur between Year 3 and Year 1.
Second, the FAA’s forecast model produces relatively small variances for both of the passenger traffic
metrics, Enplanements and RPMs, with none of the forecast variances exceeding 11.0 percent for any
forecast time horizon examined. Third, the relative divergence in forecast variances between RPMs and
ASMs suggests errors in forecasting load factor.

The examination of the forecast variances over time suggests two primary implications. First, added focus
on load factor might improve the model. Currently, load factor is calculated by dividing the forecast RPMs
by forecast ASMs. The large difference between the RPM forecast variance and ASM forecast variance
beyond Year 2, indicates a relatively large variance in the forecast of load factor, one of the critical elements
in converting passenger demand into aviation activity. However, the difference between the RPM forecast
variance and ASM forecast variance narrows as the time horizon shortens, suggesting that the near
term load factor forecasts are coming closer to the mark. All other things being equal, large variances in
forecasts of load factor will lead to large variances in the long-term forecasts of aviation activity, as can
been seen in the variances of the IFR aircraft handled forecasts.

Furthermore, ASMs are becoming increasingly difficult to forecast beyond a relatively short time horizon,
as carriers often react to changing market conditions. The relatively large variances in the ASM forecasts
suggest that carriers have reacted by permanently removing capacity. Such capacity reductions can be
identified in the short term by using advance schedule information. However, FAA’s longer-term forecasts
rely on anticipated aircraft deliveries and retirements as well as historic relationships between economic
activity and capacity deployed. Given the volatile nature of many of the factors that may influence longer
term ASM forecasts, a simpler approach, such as RPMs divided by load factor, may improve the long run
accuracy of the ASM forecasts.

66
 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

 PPENDIX C
A
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This document was prepared by the Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division (APO-100), Office of
Aviation Policy and Plans, under the direction of Mr. Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. The following individuals were
responsible for individual subject areas:

Economic Environment: Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. (202) 267-3306

Commercial Air Carriers:

– Passengers Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. (202) 267-3306
Cheryl L. Miner (202) 493-4236
– Cargo Andrea Schandler (202) 267-3323

General Aviation:
– Forecasts Fahad Ahmad (202) 267-3285
– Survey Data Fahad Ahmad (202) 267-3285

FAA Workload Measures:

– Forecasts Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. (202) 267-3306
– Data Information Systems Branch, APO-130

Unmanned Aircraft
Systems: Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. (202) 267-3306

Commercial Space: John Sloan, Commercial Space Transportation,

AST-100 (202) 267-7989

Text and Table Preparation: Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division Staff

Forecast Conference
Planner: Linda Baranovics (202) 267-7924

APO Websites:
– Forecasts/Statistical
Publications http://www.faa.gov/data_statistics
– APO Data System http://aspm.faa.gov

Email:
– APO staff first name.last name@faa.gov

67
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

68
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

FORECAST TABLES

69
 TABLE 1
U.S. SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS

ECONOMIC FISCAL YEAR 2010 FISCAL YEAR 2011

VARIABLE
1ST. QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR.
Real GDP
(Billions of 2005$) 13,097.9 13,155.3 13,214.5 13,286.6 13,374.6 13,466.7 13,585.4 13,708.8

70
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 2.6% 1.8% 1.8% 2.2% 2.7% 2.8% 3.6% 3.7%

Refiners’ Acquisition Cost - Average

(Dollars) 66.54 61.63 60.68 63.52 66.37 69.21 72.05 74.90
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 12.2% -26.4% -6.0% 20.1% 19.1% 18.3% 17.5% 16.7%

Consumer Price Index1

(1982-84 equals 100) 216.4 216.2 216.7 217.8 218.9 220.2 221.6 223.0
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 2.1% -0.3% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.6%

Source: Global Insight, October 2009.

 TABLE 2
U.S. LONG-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS

GROSS CONSUMER PRICE REFINERS’ ACQUISITION COST

FISCAL
DOMESTIC PRODUCT INDEX AVERAGE
YEAR
(Billions 2005$) (1982-84=100) (Dollars per barrel)
Historical
2000 11,145.9 170.74 26.70

2005 12,553.8 193.48 47.20

2006 12,898.3 200.62 59.94
2007 13,171.4 205.30 60.59
2008 13,374.5 214.42 101.52
2009E 12,995.9 213.78 54.22

Forecast
2010 13,188.6 216.75 61.92

2011 13,533.9 220.93 69.25

2012 14,024.1 225.74 76.47
2013 14,469.8 229.95 80.21

71
2014 14,852.6 234.38 83.34
2015 15,233.2 238.86 86.90

2016 15,612.1 243.61 90.75

2017 15,995.2 248.36 93.02
2018 16,414.8 253.16 94.74
2019 16,876.8 257.90 94.50
2020 17,391.6 262.39 92.82

2021 17,858.1 266.95 90.82

2022 18,318.4 271.60 89.58
2023 18,794.2 276.34 88.42
2024 19,272.8 281.42 89.70
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2025 19,783.0 286.72 91.79

2026 20,300.2 292.14 93.77

2027 20,802.1 297.76 95.70
2028 21,317.6 303.45 98.45
2029 21,832.4 309.45 101.47
2030 22,381.6 315.71 104.45

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 1.7% 2.5% 8.2%
2009-10 1.5% 1.4% 14.2%
2010-20 2.8% 1.9% 4.1%
2009-30 2.6% 1.9% 3.2%

Source: 2009-2030; Global Insight, US Economic Outlook, October 2009. Extrapolated to 2030.
 TABLE 3
INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS BY TRAVEL REGION

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

(In Billions of 2005 U.S. Dollars)
CALENDAR JAPAN/PACIFIC
YEAR EUROPE/
LATIN AMERICA/ BASIN/CHINA/OTHER
CANADA AFRICA/ WORLD
MEXICO ASIA/AUSTRALIA/
MIDDLE EAST
N. ZEALAND
Historical
2000 1,000.2 15,280.3 2,162.7 8,837.1 39,702.4

2005 1,134.1 17,061.5 2,454.0 10,743.3 45,612.1

2006 1,166.5 17,709.7 2,587.0 11,327.3 47,468.3
2007 1,196.0 18,291.9 2,726.9 12,014.0 49,310.9
2008 1,200.9 18,541.8 2,833.2 12,379.0 50,186.1
2009E 1,170.2 17,910.5 2,759.6 12,384.7 49,040.5

Forecast
2010 1,195.4 18,144.7 2,848.8 12,966.2 50,286.6

2011 1,236.6 18,513.8 2,972.2 13,579.7 51,897.7

2012 1,280.8 18,978.4 3,101.9 14,284.6 53,835.8
2013 1,321.7 19,492.9 3,229.3 15,069.3 55,806.2
2014 1,359.2 20,035.1 3,356.3 15,903.4 57,817.1

72
2015 1,393.7 20,550.8 3,482.3 16,760.8 59,821.8

2016 1,427.0 21,063.7 3,611.5 17,599.5 61,808.9

2017 1,459.8 21,576.6 3,744.7 18,425.1 63,793.8
2018 1,493.4 22,094.9 3,881.0 19,266.7 65,845.8
2019 1,527.5 22,623.6 4,022.4 20,130.3 67,986.4
2020 1,560.2 23,156.3 4,166.4 21,011.6 70,188.6

2021 1,593.1 23,690.7 4,315.1 21,923.0 72,376.5

2022 1,625.6 24,223.8 4,467.9 22,852.1 74,595.3
2023 1,659.7 24,762.8 4,625.8 23,812.9 76,877.7
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2024 1,693.7 25,314.7 4,788.1 24,819.3 79,236.8

2025 1,728.3 25,873.7 4,956.2 25,866.8 81,684.4

2026 1,764.3 26,442.0 5,130.1 26,938.7 84,164.7

2027 1,800.6 27,018.5 5,308.4 28,054.7 86,696.8
2028 1,839.7 27,604.9 5,491.8 29,192.3 89,281.2
2029 1,878.8 28,198.4 5,681.1 30,358.4 91,915.8
2030 1,918.4 28,803.2 5,876.3 31,551.9 94,639.4

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 1.8% 1.8% 2.7% 3.8% 2.4%
2009-10 2.1% 1.3% 3.2% 4.7% 2.5%
2010-20 2.7% 2.5% 3.9% 4.9% 3.4%
2009-30 2.4% 2.3% 3.7% 4.6% 3.2%

Source: Global Insight, October 2009.

 TABLE 4
INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS — SELECTED AREAS/COUNTRIES

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

(In Billions of 2005 U.S. Dollars)
CALENDAR
YEAR NORTH
UNITED
AMERICA EUROZONE JAPAN CHINA
KINGDOM
(NAFTA)
Historical
2000 13,001.7 9,380.0 2,014.8 4,272.2 1,420.5

2005 14,621.6 10,116.3 2,279.3 4,556.7 2,244.1

2006 15,035.4 10,430.9 2,344.3 4,649.4 2,504.4
2007 15,372.5 10,714.3 2,404.3 4,755.6 2,830.0
2008 15,448.2 10,773.6 2,417.5 4,722.6 3,083.5
2009E 15,019.7 10,346.0 2,311.5 4,447.7 3,333.3

Forecast
2010 15,346.5 10,435.1 2,335.1 4,495.9 3,669.5

2011 15,806.2 10,577.6 2,371.6 4,562.4 3,990.4

2012 16,383.8 10,758.7 2,428.1 4,655.2 4,332.9
2013 16,873.5 10,976.8 2,493.4 4,764.5 4,724.8

73
2014 17,326.1 11,208.4 2,564.5 4,878.3 5,156.6
2015 17,768.2 11,412.5 2,630.4 4,985.1 5,610.2

2016 18,211.5 11,615.6 2,693.8 5,060.6 6,069.7

2017 18,662.9 11,816.2 2,756.6 5,104.3 6,544.0
2018 19,155.6 12,014.4 2,820.8 5,139.8 7,043.3
2019 19,699.2 12,219.5 2,885.7 5,170.2 7,565.3
2020 20,272.8 12,420.7 2,951.4 5,196.5 8,109.7

2021 20,796.5 12,623.2 3,017.6 5,218.2 8,687.0

2022 21,325.7 12,823.3 3,082.1 5,238.1 9,279.0
2023 21,870.3 13,025.0 3,147.2 5,257.2 9,897.1
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2024 22,421.5 13,232.6 3,212.6 5,276.1 10,548.4

2025 23,008.1 13,440.8 3,277.8 5,294.4 11,228.2

2026 23,592.0 13,651.1 3,345.7 5,312.6 11,923.6

2027 24,167.7 13,862.1 3,416.0 5,331.6 12,652.0
2028 24,758.6 14,075.0 3,487.0 5,352.1 13,389.4
2029 25,353.7 14,287.4 3,558.1 5,372.2 14,142.8
2030 25,992.5 14,500.8 3,631.8 5,389.7 14,916.0

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 1.6% 1.1% 1.5% 0.4% 9.9%
2009-10 2.2% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 10.1%
2010-20 2.8% 1.8% 2.4% 1.5% 8.3%
2009-30 2.6% 1.6% 2.2% 0.9% 7.4%

Source: Global Insight, October 2009.

 TABLE 5
U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1
TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. PASSENGER TRAFFIC

FISCAL REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (Millions) REVENUE PASSENGER MILES (Billions)

YEAR
DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
Historical*
2000 641.2 56.4 697.6 512.8 181.8 694.6

2005 669.5 67.4 737.0 573.2 197.2 770.4

2006 668.4 71.6 740.0 582.4 208.5 790.9
2007 690.1 75.3 765.3 600.5 221.2 821.7
2008 681.3 77.8 759.1 595.3 233.1 828.5
2009E 631.3 72.7 704.0 549.5 220.1 769.7

Forecast
2010 634.1 73.4 707.4 551.5 220.7 772.2

2011 645.7 76.3 722.0 561.5 231.0 792.5

2012 667.7 79.7 747.3 585.5 242.7 828.2
2013 687.8 83.2 771.1 608.3 254.9 863.2
2014 705.5 86.9 792.4 629.1 267.6 896.7

74
2015 723.1 90.6 813.7 650.3 280.5 930.8

2016 740.6 94.3 834.9 671.1 293.8 964.9

2017 758.2 98.1 856.3 692.4 307.3 999.7
2018 777.4 102.2 879.6 715.4 321.6 1,037.0
2019 798.3 106.5 904.8 740.4 336.9 1,077.3
2020 821.4 111.1 932.6 767.8 353.2 1,120.9

2021 842.5 115.7 958.2 792.9 369.6 1,162.4

2022 863.3 120.5 983.7 818.1 386.4 1,204.4
2023 884.7 125.3 1,010.1 844.2 403.8 1,248.1
2024 906.4 130.3 1,036.7 870.8 422.0 1,292.8
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2025 929.3 135.6 1,064.9 899.0 441.2 1,340.2

2026 952.4 141.1 1,093.5 927.0 461.1 1,388.1

2027 974.9 146.7 1,121.5 954.7 481.6 1,436.2
2028 997.9 152.4 1,150.3 983.2 502.8 1,486.0
2029 1,021.0 158.3 1,179.3 1,012.1 524.8 1,536.8
2030 1,045.5 164.5 1,210.0 1,042.6 547.9 1,590.6

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 -0.2% 2.9% 0.1% 0.8% 2.1% 1.1%
2009-10 0.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%
2010-20 2.6% 4.2% 2.8% 3.4% 4.8% 3.8%
2009-30 2.4% 4.0% 2.6% 3.1% 4.4% 3.5%

* Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1 Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
 TABLE 6
U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1
SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL
ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD
YEAR
(BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR
Historical*
2000 726.6 512.8 70.6 239.3 181.8 76.0 965.9 694.6 71.9

2005 755.2 573.2 75.9 248.5 197.2 79.4 1,003.6 770.4 76.8
2006 740.2 582.4 78.7 261.3 208.5 79.8 1,001.5 790.9 79.0
2007 752.5 600.5 79.8 275.9 221.2 80.2 1,028.4 821.7 79.9
2008 750.5 595.3 79.3 291.9 233.1 79.9 1,042.4 828.5 79.5
2009E 683.8 549.5 80.4 281.7 220.1 78.1 965.5 769.7 79.7

Forecast
2010 676.2 551.5 81.6 274.0 220.7 80.6 950.2 772.2 81.3

2011 686.7 561.5 81.8 286.9 231.0 80.5 973.7 792.5 81.4
2012 714.1 585.5 82.0 301.2 242.7 80.6 1,015.2 828.2 81.6
2013 740.2 608.3 82.2 316.1 254.9 80.6 1,056.3 863.2 81.7
2014 764.0 629.1 82.3 331.7 267.6 80.7 1,095.8 896.7 81.8

75
2015 788.5 650.3 82.5 347.6 280.5 80.7 1,136.1 930.8 81.9

2016 812.7 671.1 82.6 363.9 293.8 80.7 1,176.6 964.9 82.0
2017 837.6 692.4 82.7 380.5 307.3 80.8 1,218.1 999.7 82.1
2018 864.6 715.4 82.7 398.0 321.6 80.8 1,262.6 1,037.0 82.1
2019 894.1 740.4 82.8 416.8 336.9 80.8 1,310.9 1,077.3 82.2
2020 926.5 767.8 82.9 436.8 353.2 80.9 1,363.3 1,120.9 82.2

2021 956.3 792.9 82.9 456.9 369.6 80.9 1,413.2 1,162.4 82.3
2022 986.1 818.1 83.0 477.6 386.4 80.9 1,463.7 1,204.4 82.3
2023 1,017.2 844.2 83.0 499.0 403.8 80.9 1,516.2 1,248.1 82.3
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2024 1,048.8 870.8 83.0 521.2 422.0 81.0 1,570.1 1,292.8 82.3
2025 1,082.5 899.0 83.1 544.7 441.2 81.0 1,627.2 1,340.2 82.4

2026 1,115.8 927.0 83.1 569.1 461.1 81.0 1,684.9 1,388.1 82.4
2027 1,148.7 954.7 83.1 594.3 481.6 81.0 1,743.0 1,436.2 82.4
2028 1,182.7 983.2 83.1 620.3 502.8 81.1 1,803.0 1,486.0 82.4
2029 1,217.1 1,012.1 83.2 647.2 524.8 81.1 1,864.3 1,536.8 82.4
2030 1,253.6 1,042.6 83.2 675.6 547.9 81.1 1,929.2 1,590.6 82.4

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 -0.7% 0.8% 1.8% 2.1% 0.0% 1.1%
2009-10 -1.1% 0.4% -2.8% 0.3% -1.6% 0.3%
2010-20 3.2% 3.4% 4.8% 4.8% 3.7% 3.8%
2009-30 2.9% 3.1% 4.3% 4.4% 3.4% 3.5%

* Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1 Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
 TABLE 7
U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1
TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC

REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

FISCAL LATIN TOTAL LATIN TOTAL
ATLANTIC PACIFIC ATLANTIC PACIFIC
YEAR AMERICA INTERNATIONAL AMERICA INTERNATIONAL
(Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Mil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil) (Bil)
Historical*
2000 20.9 24.3 11.2 56.4 87.1 36.3 58.4 181.8

2005 21.6 32.5 13.2 67.4 89.5 48.6 59.2 197.2

2006 22.5 35.2 13.9 71.6 93.9 53.6 61.1 208.5
2007 24.1 37.6 13.6 75.3 102.2 57.7 61.4 221.2
2008 26.0 38.7 13.2 77.8 112.7 60.0 60.4 233.1
2009E 24.7 35.9 12.0 72.7 108.9 56.5 54.7 220.1

Forecast
2010 24.1 37.1 12.1 73.4 106.8 58.5 55.4 220.7

2011 25.3 38.5 12.5 76.3 112.4 61.2 57.4 231.0

2012 26.3 40.2 13.2 79.7 117.7 64.6 60.3 242.7
2013 27.3 42.0 13.9 83.2 122.9 68.3 63.6 254.9

76
2014 28.3 43.9 14.6 86.9 128.1 72.3 67.3 267.6
2015 29.3 45.8 15.5 90.6 133.0 76.3 71.2 280.5

2016 30.2 47.7 16.3 94.3 138.0 80.5 75.2 293.8

2017 31.2 49.7 17.2 98.1 143.1 84.8 79.4 307.3
2018 32.3 51.8 18.1 102.2 148.6 89.3 83.6 321.6
2019 33.4 54.1 19.0 106.5 154.6 94.3 88.0 336.9
2020 34.6 56.6 19.9 111.1 160.9 99.8 92.4 353.2

2021 35.8 59.1 20.9 115.7 167.0 105.6 97.0 369.6

2022 36.9 61.7 21.9 120.5 173.2 111.5 101.7 386.4
2023 38.1 64.3 22.9 125.3 179.6 117.7 106.6 403.8
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2024 39.4 67.0 23.9 130.3 186.2 124.1 111.7 422.0

2025 40.7 69.9 25.1 135.6 193.1 130.9 117.1 441.2

2026 42.0 72.9 26.2 141.1 200.2 138.1 122.8 461.1

2027 43.3 75.9 27.5 146.7 207.4 145.5 128.7 481.6
2028 44.6 79.0 28.7 152.4 214.7 153.1 135.0 502.8
2029 46.0 82.2 30.1 158.3 222.2 161.1 141.4 524.8
2030 47.5 85.6 31.4 164.5 230.2 169.6 148.1 547.9

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 1.9% 4.4% 0.8% 2.9% 2.5% 5.0% -0.7% 2.1%
2009-10 -2.5% 3.3% 0.7% 0.9% -1.9% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3%
2010-20 3.7% 4.3% 5.1% 4.2% 4.2% 5.5% 5.3% 4.8%
2009-30 3.1% 4.2% 4.7% 4.0% 3.6% 5.4% 4.9% 4.4%

* Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1 Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
 TABLE 8
U.S. AND FOREIGN FLAG CARRIERS
TOTAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC TO/FROM THE UNITED STATES

TOTAL PASSENGERS BY WORLD TRAVEL AREA (Millions)

CALENDAR
YEAR U.S./CANADA
ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL
TRANSBORDER
Historical*
2000 53.0 40.8 26.0 20.8 140.6

2005 49.9 44.2 25.1 19.7 139.0

2006 49.8 47.1 25.6 21.0 143.5
2007 53.3 48.6 26.3 21.5 149.7
2008 57.1 49.8 25.8 21.4 154.1
2009E 54.9 47.6 24.1 20.4 147.1

Forecast
2010 56.8 49.2 25.1 21.0 152.0

2011 59.4 51.6 26.8 21.8 159.6

2012 62.6 54.3 28.9 22.8 168.6
2013 65.6 56.8 30.9 23.7 177.0
2014 68.6 59.3 32.9 24.6 185.4

77
2015 71.4 61.9 34.9 25.4 193.6

2016 74.2 64.5 36.8 26.2 201.8

2017 77.1 67.3 38.6 27.0 210.0
2018 80.2 70.2 40.5 27.9 218.8
2019 83.5 73.3 42.5 28.9 228.2
2020 86.9 76.6 44.5 29.9 238.0

2021 90.1 79.9 46.6 30.9 247.6

2022 93.4 83.3 48.7 31.9 257.3
2023 96.7 86.9 50.9 32.9 267.4
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2024 100.1 90.5 53.2 33.9 277.8

2025 103.7 94.5 55.6 35.0 288.7

2026 107.3 98.5 58.0 36.1 299.9

2027 110.9 102.6 60.6 37.2 311.3
2028 114.5 106.9 63.2 38.4 323.1
2029 118.3 111.4 65.9 39.6 335.1
2030 122.2 116.1 68.8 40.8 347.9

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 0.4% 1.7% -0.8% -0.2% 0.5%
2009-10 3.4% 3.4% 3.8% 2.8% 3.3%
2010-20 4.4% 4.5% 5.9% 3.6% 4.6%
2009-30 3.9% 4.3% 5.1% 3.4% 4.2%

* Sources: Atlantic, Pacific, and Latin America, INS Form I-92, U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S./Canada Transborder, Transport Canada.
 TABLE 9
U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS 1
SEATS PER AIRCRAFT AND PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

FISCAL
YEAR DOMESTIC INT’L. SYSTEM DOMESTIC INT’L. SYSTEM
(Seats) (Seats) (Seats) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles)
Historical*
2000 129.3 230.6 145.0 799.8 3,223.2 995.7

2005 120.4 217.1 135.3 856.2 2,924.6 1,045.4

2006 120.1 215.0 135.7 871.4 2,911.5 1,068.8
2007 120.4 215.9 136.6 870.2 2,939.3 1,073.7
2008 120.6 217.2 137.8 873.9 2,994.9 1,091.4
2009E 121.9 216.9 139.8 870.5 3,027.3 1,093.2

Forecast
2010 121.6 216.4 139.1 869.8 3,008.5 1,091.6

2011 121.6 217.0 139.7 869.5 3,028.7 1,097.7

78
2012 121.7 217.5 140.0 877.0 3,046.0 1,108.2
2013 121.7 218.1 140.3 884.4 3,062.9 1,119.5
2014 121.7 218.6 140.6 891.7 3,080.5 1,131.7
2015 121.8 219.2 140.9 899.3 3,097.9 1,144.0

2016 121.8 219.8 141.3 906.3 3,114.8 1,155.7

2017 121.9 220.4 141.6 913.2 3,131.3 1,167.4
2018 121.9 220.9 142.0 920.3 3,147.3 1,179.0
2019 122.1 221.4 142.4 927.4 3,163.0 1,190.6
2020 122.2 221.9 142.8 934.7 3,178.0 1,202.0

2021 122.4 222.3 143.2 941.1 3,192.9 1,213.1

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2022 122.5 222.7 143.6 947.6 3,207.6 1,224.4

2023 122.6 223.2 144.0 954.2 3,222.4 1,235.6
2024 122.8 223.6 144.4 960.8 3,237.4 1,247.0
2025 122.8 224.1 144.7 967.4 3,252.6 1,258.5

2026 123.0 224.5 145.2 973.4 3,267.9 1,269.4

2027 123.2 225.0 145.7 979.3 3,283.5 1,280.6
2028 123.3 225.4 146.1 985.2 3,299.3 1,291.8
2029 123.4 225.9 146.5 991.2 3,315.1 1,303.2
2030 123.6 226.3 147.0 997.2 3,330.9 1,314.5

* Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1 Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
 TABLE 10
U. S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS
SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC

FISCAL REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

YEAR (Millions) (Billions)
DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
Historical*
2000 561.5 53.3 614.8 490.0 181.0 670.9

2005 523.1 64.2 587.3 509.6 195.8 705.4

2006 516.2 68.1 584.4 513.9 206.8 720.7
2007 533.9 71.9 605.7 529.9 219.5 749.4
2008 522.2 74.3 596.5 522.0 231.3 753.3
2009E 477.6 70.2 547.7 479.4 218.8 698.2

Forecast
2010 473.3 70.7 544.0 478.6 219.4 697.9

2011 479.5 73.5 553.0 485.8 229.6 715.4

2012 495.7 76.8 572.5 505.9 241.2 747.1
2013 510.2 80.3 590.4 524.6 253.3 777.9
2014 522.6 83.8 606.4 541.4 266.0 807.4

79
2015 535.1 87.4 622.6 558.6 278.8 837.4

2016 547.6 91.1 638.7 575.6 292.0 867.6

2017 560.1 94.9 655.0 592.8 305.5 898.3
2018 573.7 98.8 672.5 611.5 319.7 931.2
2019 588.6 103.0 691.7 631.8 334.9 966.8
2020 605.1 107.5 712.7 654.1 351.1 1,005.2

2021 620.0 112.1 732.0 674.5 367.5 1,041.9

2022 634.6 116.7 751.2 694.8 384.2 1,079.0
2023 649.6 121.4 771.1 716.0 401.6 1,117.5
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2024 664.8 126.3 791.1 737.4 419.6 1,157.0

2025 680.7 131.5 812.2 760.0 438.7 1,198.7

2026 696.8 136.8 833.6 782.6 458.5 1,241.1

2027 712.3 142.3 854.6 804.9 478.9 1,283.8
2028 728.2 147.9 876.2 827.8 500.1 1,327.9
2029 744.1 153.7 897.8 850.9 522.0 1,372.9
2030 760.9 159.8 920.7 875.4 545.0 1,420.4

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 -1.8% 3.1% -1.3% -0.2% 2.1% 0.4%
2009-10 -0.9% 0.8% -0.7% -0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
2010-20 2.5% 4.3% 2.7% 3.2% 4.8% 3.7%
2009-30 2.2% 4.0% 2.5% 2.9% 4.4% 3.4%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

 TABLE 11
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS
SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL
YEAR ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD
(BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR
Historical*
2000 688.3 490.0 71.2 238.0 181.0 76.0 926.2 670.9 72.4

2005 665.1 509.6 76.6 246.3 195.8 79.5 911.4 705.4 77.4
2006 648.7 513.9 79.2 258.9 206.8 79.9 907.6 720.7 79.4
2007 659.0 529.9 80.4 273.4 219.5 80.3 932.4 749.4 80.4
2008 651.0 522.0 80.2 289.3 231.3 79.9 940.3 753.3 80.1
2009E 589.4 479.4 81.3 279.9 218.8 78.2 869.2 698.2 80.3

Forecast
2010 579.9 478.6 82.5 272.0 219.4 80.6 852.0 697.9 81.9

2011 588.0 485.8 82.6 284.9 229.6 80.6 872.9 715.4 82.0
2012 610.3 505.9 82.9 299.0 241.2 80.6 909.3 747.1 82.2
2013 631.1 524.6 83.1 314.0 253.3 80.7 945.0 777.9 82.3
2014 649.8 541.4 83.3 329.5 266.0 80.7 979.3 807.4 82.4

80
2015 669.1 558.6 83.5 345.3 278.8 80.8 1,014.4 837.4 82.6

2016 688.4 575.6 83.6 361.5 292.0 80.8 1,049.9 867.6 82.6
2017 708.1 592.8 83.7 378.0 305.5 80.8 1,086.2 898.3 82.7
2018 729.6 611.5 83.8 395.5 319.7 80.8 1,125.1 931.2 82.8
2019 753.1 631.8 83.9 414.2 334.9 80.9 1,167.3 966.8 82.8
2020 779.0 654.1 84.0 434.1 351.1 80.9 1,213.1 1,005.2 82.9

2021 802.6 674.5 84.0 454.1 367.5 80.9 1,256.8 1,041.9 82.9
2022 826.3 694.8 84.1 474.7 384.2 80.9 1,301.0 1,079.0 82.9
2023 851.0 716.0 84.1 496.0 401.6 81.0 1,347.0 1,117.5 83.0
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2024 875.9 737.4 84.2 518.2 419.6 81.0 1,394.1 1,157.0 83.0
2025 902.4 760.0 84.2 541.6 438.7 81.0 1,444.0 1,198.7 83.0

2026 928.8 782.6 84.3 565.9 458.5 81.0 1,494.7 1,241.1 83.0
2027 954.8 804.9 84.3 590.9 478.9 81.1 1,545.7 1,283.8 83.1
2028 981.6 827.8 84.3 616.9 500.1 81.1 1,598.5 1,327.9 83.1
2029 1,008.7 850.9 84.4 643.6 522.0 81.1 1,652.3 1,372.9 83.1
2030 1,037.3 875.4 84.4 671.9 545.0 81.1 1,709.2 1,420.4 83.1

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 -1.7% -0.2% 1.8% 2.1% -0.7% 0.4%
2009-10 -1.6% -0.2% -2.8% 0.2% -2.0% 0.0%
2010-20 3.0% 3.2% 4.8% 4.8% 3.6% 3.7%
2009-30 2.7% 2.9% 4.3% 4.4% 3.3% 3.4%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

 TABLE 12
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS
SCHEDULED INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS

FISCAL REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (MIL)

YEAR ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL
Historical*
2000 20.9 21.2 11.2 53.3

2005 21.6 29.3 13.2 64.2

2006 22.5 31.7 13.9 68.1
2007 24.1 34.2 13.6 71.9
2008 26.0 35.1 13.2 74.3
2009E 24.7 33.4 12.0 70.2

Forecast
2010 24.1 34.5 12.1 70.7

2011 25.3 35.7 12.5 73.5

2012 26.3 37.3 13.2 76.8
2013 27.3 39.1 13.9 80.3
2014 28.3 40.9 14.6 83.8
2015 29.3 42.7 15.5 87.4

81
2016 30.2 44.5 16.3 91.1
2017 31.2 46.4 17.2 94.9
2018 32.3 48.4 18.1 98.8
2019 33.4 50.6 19.0 103.0
2020 34.6 53.0 19.9 107.5

2021 35.8 55.4 20.9 112.1

2022 36.9 57.9 21.9 116.7
2023 38.1 60.4 22.9 121.4
2024 39.4 63.0 23.9 126.3
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2025 40.7 65.8 25.1 131.5

2026 42.0 68.6 26.2 136.8

2027 43.3 71.6 27.5 142.3
2028 44.6 74.6 28.7 147.9
2029 46.0 77.6 30.1 153.7
2030 47.5 80.9 31.4 159.8

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 1.9% 5.2% 0.8% 3.1%
2009-10 -2.5% 3.2% 0.7% 0.8%
2010-20 3.7% 4.4% 5.1% 4.3%
2009-30 3.1% 4.3% 4.7% 4.0%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

Note: Detail may not add to total because of rounding.
 TABLE 13
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS
SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS
BY INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL REGIONS

FISCAL ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL

ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD
YEAR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR (BIL) (BIL) FACTOR
Historical*
2000 109.9 87.1 79.2 51.4 35.5 69.0 76.6 58.4 76.2 238.0 181.0 76.0

2005 108.6 89.5 82.4 65.4 47.2 72.2 72.3 59.2 81.8 246.3 195.8 79.5
2006 115.8 93.9 81.1 69.4 51.9 74.9 73.7 61.1 82.8 258.9 206.8 79.9
2007 126.6 102.2 80.7 72.7 55.9 76.9 74.1 61.4 82.9 273.4 219.5 80.3
2008 141.0 112.7 80.0 73.4 58.2 79.3 74.9 60.4 80.6 289.3 231.3 79.9
2009E 138.2 108.9 78.9 71.8 55.2 76.8 69.9 54.7 78.3 279.9 218.8 78.2

Forecast
2010 130.6 106.8 81.8 73.1 57.2 78.2 68.3 55.4 81.0 272.0 219.4 80.6

2011 137.6 112.4 81.7 76.2 59.8 78.4 71.0 57.4 80.9 284.9 229.6 80.6
2012 144.1 117.7 81.7 80.4 63.1 78.5 74.6 60.3 80.9 299.0 241.2 80.6
2013 150.3 122.9 81.8 85.1 66.8 78.5 78.6 63.6 80.9 314.0 253.3 80.7

82
2014 156.5 128.1 81.8 89.9 70.6 78.6 83.0 67.3 81.0 329.5 266.0 80.7
2015 162.5 133.0 81.9 95.0 74.6 78.6 87.8 71.2 81.0 345.3 278.8 80.8

2016 168.5 138.0 81.9 100.2 78.7 78.6 92.8 75.2 81.1 361.5 292.0 80.8
2017 174.6 143.1 82.0 105.6 83.0 78.6 97.8 79.4 81.2 378.0 305.5 80.8
2018 181.2 148.6 82.0 111.3 87.5 78.6 103.0 83.6 81.2 395.5 319.7 80.8
2019 188.4 154.6 82.1 117.6 92.4 78.6 108.3 88.0 81.3 414.2 334.9 80.9
2020 196.0 160.9 82.1 124.5 97.8 78.6 113.7 92.4 81.3 434.1 351.1 80.9

2021 203.3 167.0 82.2 131.7 103.4 78.6 119.2 97.0 81.3 454.1 367.5 80.9
2022 210.7 173.2 82.2 139.1 109.3 78.6 124.9 101.7 81.4 474.7 384.2 80.9
2023 218.3 179.6 82.3 146.9 115.4 78.6 130.9 106.6 81.5 496.0 401.6 81.0
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2024 226.2 186.2 82.3 155.0 121.7 78.6 137.1 111.7 81.5 518.2 419.6 81.0
2025 234.5 193.1 82.4 163.5 128.5 78.6 143.6 117.1 81.6 541.6 438.7 81.0

2026 242.9 200.2 82.4 172.5 135.5 78.6 150.5 122.8 81.6 565.9 458.5 81.0
2027 251.4 207.4 82.5 181.8 142.8 78.6 157.7 128.7 81.7 590.9 478.9 81.1
2028 260.2 214.7 82.5 191.5 150.4 78.6 165.2 135.0 81.7 616.9 500.1 81.1
2029 269.1 222.2 82.6 201.5 158.3 78.6 173.0 141.4 81.8 643.6 522.0 81.1
2030 278.7 230.2 82.6 212.1 166.7 78.6 181.1 148.1 81.8 671.9 545.0 81.1

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 2.6% 2.5% 3.8% 5.0% -1.0% -0.7% 1.8% 2.1%
2009-10 -5.5% -1.9% 1.7% 3.6% -2.2% 1.2% -2.8% 0.2%
2010-20 4.1% 4.2% 5.5% 5.5% 5.2% 5.3% 4.8% 4.8%
2009-30 3.4% 3.6% 5.3% 5.4% 4.6% 4.9% 4.3% 4.4%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

 TABLE 14
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE

INTERNATIONAL
FISCAL DOMESTIC SYSTEM
ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL
YEAR
(Seats) (Seats) (Seats) (Seats) (Seats) (Seats)
Historical*
2000 148.8 233.7 179.5 307.8 236.6 164.5

2005 150.4 230.8 175.5 278.7 223.4 165.0

2006 150.5 229.4 175.2 274.4 221.4 165.7
2007 150.6 229.2 176.2 279.6 222.3 166.3
2008 150.0 229.2 177.8 280.6 223.4 166.9
2009E 151.4 230.0 172.0 285.4 221.5 168.6

Forecast
2010 150.6 230.5 172.5 286.2 221.3 167.7

2011 150.4 231.0 173.0 286.9 221.9 168.1

83
2012 150.5 231.5 173.5 287.7 222.3 168.4
2013 150.6 232.0 174.0 288.4 222.8 168.7
2014 150.7 232.5 174.5 289.2 223.3 169.2
2015 150.8 233.0 175.0 289.9 223.8 169.6

2016 150.9 233.5 175.5 290.7 224.3 170.0

2017 151.0 234.0 176.0 291.4 224.8 170.5
2018 151.0 234.5 176.5 292.2 225.2 170.8
2019 151.1 235.0 177.0 292.9 225.6 171.1
2020 151.1 235.5 177.5 293.7 226.0 171.4
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2021 151.2 236.0 178.0 294.4 226.4 171.9

2022 151.2 236.5 178.5 295.2 226.7 172.2
2023 151.3 237.0 179.0 295.9 227.1 172.5
2024 151.4 237.5 179.5 296.7 227.5 172.9
2025 151.4 238.0 180.0 297.4 227.9 173.2

2026 151.5 238.5 180.5 298.2 228.3 173.6

2027 151.6 239.0 181.0 298.9 228.7 174.0
2028 151.6 239.5 181.5 299.7 229.1 174.4
2029 151.7 240.0 182.0 300.4 229.5 174.8
2030 151.9 240.5 182.5 301.2 229.9 175.2

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

 TABLE 15
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH

INTERNATIONAL
FISCAL DOMESTIC SYSTEM
ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA PACIFIC TOTAL
YEAR
(Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles)
Historical*
2000 872.6 4,168.1 1,675.2 5,219.9 3,397.3 1,091.4

2005 974.1 4,133.1 1,611.1 4,466.1 3,051.2 1,201.1

2006 995.5 4,175.4 1,637.0 4,390.4 3,037.0 1,233.4
2007 992.7 4,247.8 1,634.3 4,515.1 3,054.2 1,237.3
2008 999.7 4,332.7 1,654.8 4,583.5 3,111.0 1,262.8
2009E 1,003.8 4,402.4 1,652.3 4,550.0 3,118.8 1,274.7

Forecast
2010 1,011.0 4,427.0 1,658.7 4,571.7 3,102.5 1,282.9

2011 1,013.1 4,448.5 1,673.9 4,579.0 3,122.8 1,293.6

84
2012 1,020.7 4,474.9 1,689.5 4,585.9 3,139.6 1,305.0
2013 1,028.3 4,499.4 1,708.1 4,592.2 3,155.8 1,317.5
2014 1,036.1 4,522.2 1,727.8 4,598.0 3,172.7 1,331.4
2015 1,043.8 4,544.1 1,747.7 4,603.7 3,189.1 1,345.1

2016 1,051.1 4,564.6 1,767.3 4,609.6 3,205.1 1,358.4

2017 1,058.5 4,584.6 1,786.7 4,615.8 3,220.7 1,371.6
2018 1,065.9 4,604.6 1,806.0 4,622.3 3,235.9 1,384.7
2019 1,073.3 4,625.4 1,825.6 4,629.1 3,250.8 1,397.7
2020 1,080.9 4,647.4 1,846.0 4,636.1 3,265.2 1,410.5
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2021 1,087.9 4,669.3 1,867.4 4,643.3 3,279.3 1,423.4

2022 1,095.0 4,689.9 1,888.9 4,650.6 3,293.2 1,436.3
2023 1,102.1 4,710.2 1,910.1 4,658.0 3,307.2 1,449.4
2024 1,109.2 4,730.6 1,931.4 4,665.4 3,321.6 1,462.5
2025 1,116.5 4,751.0 1,952.6 4,672.8 3,336.1 1,475.8

2026 1,123.2 4,771.7 1,974.2 4,680.2 3,350.8 1,488.9

2027 1,129.9 4,792.1 1,995.9 4,687.6 3,365.7 1,502.2
2028 1,136.7 4,812.1 2,017.5 4,695.0 3,380.7 1,515.6
2029 1,143.5 4,832.1 2,039.1 4,702.5 3,395.9 1,529.1
2030 1,150.4 4,852.1 2,060.6 4,710.1 3,411.1 1,542.7

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

 TABLE 16
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
PASSENGER YIELDS

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE

FISCAL DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
YEAR
CURRENT $ FY 2009 $ CURRENT $ FY 2009 $ CURRENT $ FY 2009 $
(Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents)
Historical*
2000 14.03 17.56 10.46 13.09 13.06 16.36

2005 11.45 12.65 10.87 12.01 11.29 12.47

2006 12.36 13.17 11.63 12.40 12.15 12.95
2007 12.45 12.96 12.45 12.97 12.45 12.96
2008 13.09 13.05 13.42 13.38 13.19 13.15
2009E 11.96 11.96 11.69 11.69 11.88 11.88

Forecast
2010 12.32 12.15 12.22 12.05 12.29 12.12

2011 12.69 12.27 13.04 12.62 12.80 12.38

85
2012 12.81 12.13 13.19 12.49 12.93 12.25
2013 12.89 11.99 13.30 12.37 13.03 12.11
2014 12.98 11.84 13.42 12.24 13.13 11.97
2015 13.07 11.70 13.55 12.12 13.23 11.84

2016 13.18 11.57 13.68 12.00 13.35 11.72

2017 13.29 11.44 13.80 11.88 13.47 11.59
2018 13.40 11.31 13.93 11.76 13.58 11.47
2019 13.50 11.19 14.05 11.65 13.69 11.35
2020 13.58 11.06 14.16 11.53 13.78 11.23

2021 13.67 10.95 14.26 11.42 13.88 11.11

FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2022 13.76 10.83 14.37 11.31 13.98 11.00

2023 13.86 10.72 14.47 11.20 14.08 10.89
2024 13.97 10.61 14.60 11.09 14.20 10.78
2025 14.08 10.50 14.73 10.98 14.32 10.68

2026 14.21 10.40 14.86 10.87 14.45 10.57

2027 14.35 10.30 14.99 10.76 14.59 10.47
2028 14.48 10.20 15.13 10.66 14.73 10.37
2029 14.63 10.10 15.28 10.55 14.87 10.28
2030 14.78 10.01 15.43 10.45 15.03 10.18

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 -1.8% -4.2% 1.2% -1.3% -1.1% -3.5%
2009-10 3.0% 1.6% 4.6% 3.1% 3.5% 2.1%
2010-20 1.0% -0.9% 1.5% -0.4% 1.1% -0.8%
2009-30 1.0% -0.8% 1.3% -0.5% 1.1% -0.7%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

 TABLE 17
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER YIELDS BY REGION

REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE

FISCAL ATLANTIC LATIN AMERICA1 PACIFIC TOTAL INTERNATIONAL
YEAR CURRENT $ FY 2009 $ CURRENT $ FY 2009 $ CURRENT $ FY 2009 $ CURRENT $ FY 2009 $
(Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents)
Historical*
2000 9.73 12.18 13.00 16.28 9.99 12.51 10.46 13.09

2005 10.75 11.88 12.16 13.44 10.04 11.09 10.87 12.01

2006 11.64 12.40 12.68 13.52 10.73 11.43 11.63 12.40
2007 12.46 12.97 13.37 13.92 11.61 12.09 12.45 12.97
2008 13.29 13.25 14.19 14.15 12.73 12.69 13.42 13.38
2009E 11.25 11.25 13.05 13.05 11.20 11.20 11.69 11.69

Forecast
2010 12.10 11.93 13.35 13.17 11.30 11.14 12.22 12.05

2011 12.95 12.53 14.03 13.57 12.18 11.79 13.04 12.62

2012 13.10 12.40 14.19 13.44 12.32 11.67 13.19 12.49
2013 13.21 12.28 14.31 13.30 12.43 11.55 13.30 12.37

86
2014 13.33 12.16 14.44 13.17 12.54 11.44 13.42 12.24
2015 13.45 12.04 14.57 13.04 12.65 11.32 13.55 12.12

2016 13.58 11.92 14.71 12.91 12.77 11.21 13.68 12.00

2017 13.70 11.80 14.85 12.78 12.89 11.10 13.80 11.88
2018 13.83 11.68 14.98 12.65 13.01 10.99 13.93 11.76
2019 13.95 11.56 15.11 12.53 13.12 10.88 14.05 11.65
2020 14.05 11.45 15.22 12.40 13.22 10.77 14.16 11.53

2021 14.15 11.33 15.33 12.28 13.31 10.66 14.26 11.42

2022 14.25 11.22 15.44 12.15 13.41 10.55 14.37 11.31
2023 14.36 11.11 15.55 12.03 13.51 10.45 14.47 11.20
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2024 14.47 11.00 15.68 11.91 13.62 10.34 14.60 11.09

2025 14.60 10.89 15.82 11.79 13.74 10.24 14.73 10.98

2026 14.73 10.78 15.95 11.67 13.85 10.14 14.86 10.87

2027 14.86 10.67 16.10 11.56 13.98 10.04 14.99 10.76
2028 14.99 10.56 16.24 11.44 14.10 9.94 15.13 10.66
2029 15.14 10.46 16.40 11.33 14.24 9.84 15.28 10.55
2030 15.29 10.35 16.56 11.21 14.38 9.74 15.43 10.45

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 1.6% -0.9% 0.0% -2.4% 1.3% -1.2% 1.2% -1.3%
2009-10 7.6% 6.1% 2.3% 0.9% 0.9% -0.5% 4.6% 3.1%
2010-20 1.5% -0.4% 1.3% -0.6% 1.6% -0.3% 1.5% -0.4%
2009-30 1.5% -0.4% 1.1% -0.7% 1.2% -0.7% 1.3% -0.5%

1 Mainline Air Carrier Only

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
 TABLE 18
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
JET FUEL PRICES

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL
CURRENT $ FY 2009 $ CURRENT $ FY 2009 $ CURRENT $ FY 2009 $
YEAR
(Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents)
Historical*
2000 71.49 89.51 79.35 99.35 73.57 92.11

2005 149.39 165.06 157.26 173.76 151.58 167.48

2006 194.69 207.46 204.69 218.12 197.72 210.70
2007 194.17 202.19 203.31 211.70 197.00 205.13
2008 292.56 291.69 314.57 313.64 299.67 298.78
2009E 202.31 202.31 208.41 208.41 204.44 204.44

Forecast
2010 212.19 209.28 228.15 225.02 217.35 214.36

2011 225.90 218.59 242.90 235.04 231.39 223.91

2012 247.43 234.32 266.05 251.95 253.45 240.02

87
2013 261.42 243.04 281.09 261.33 267.78 248.95
2014 272.36 248.42 292.85 267.11 278.98 254.46
2015 283.88 254.07 305.24 273.19 290.78 260.25

2016 296.30 260.02 318.59 279.58 303.50 266.34

2017 304.66 262.24 327.58 281.97 312.06 268.61
2018 310.81 262.46 334.20 282.21 318.37 268.84
2019 311.31 258.06 334.74 277.47 318.88 264.33
2020 306.96 250.09 330.05 268.90 314.42 256.17

2021 300.81 240.90 323.44 259.02 308.12 246.75

2022 296.35 233.27 318.65 250.81 303.55 238.93
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2023 292.44 226.24 314.45 243.26 299.55 231.74

2024 295.10 224.17 317.30 241.04 302.27 229.62
2025 301.17 224.55 323.82 241.44 308.49 230.01

2026 307.57 225.07 330.71 242.01 315.04 230.54

2027 313.89 225.36 337.50 242.32 321.51 230.84
2028 322.37 227.11 346.63 244.20 330.21 232.63
2029 332.00 229.36 356.97 246.61 340.06 234.93
2030 341.73 231.40 367.44 248.81 350.03 237.02

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 12.3% 9.5% 11.3% 8.6% 12.0% 9.3%
2009-10 4.9% 3.4% 9.5% 8.0% 6.3% 4.9%
2010-20 3.8% 1.8% 3.8% 1.8% 3.8% 1.8%
2009-30 2.5% 0.6% 2.7% 0.8% 2.6% 0.7%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

 TABLE 19
U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS
AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES1

ALL-CARGO CARRIER RTMS PASSENGER CARRIER RTMS TOTAL RTMS

FISCAL (Millions) (Millions) (Millions)
YEAR
DOMESTIC INT’L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT’L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT’L. TOTAL
Historical*
2000 10,283.5 7,573.1 17,856.6 4,415.2 7,784.6 12,199.9 14,698.7 15,357.8 30,056.5
2005 13,007.9 14,581.2 27,589.0 3,081.7 8,547.7 11,629.5 16,089.6 23,128.9 39,218.5
2006 12,481.2 15,475.2 27,956.4 3,229.4 8,483.5 11,712.8 15,710.5 23,958.7 39,669.2
2007 12,795.2 16,164.4 28,959.6 3,022.8 8,050.0 11,072.8 15,818.0 24,214.4 40,032.4
2008 12,257.7 15,587.4 27,845.1 2,152.9 9,027.0 11,179.9 14,410.5 24,614.4 39,025.0
2009E 10,219.7 12,058.1 22,277.8 1,640.2 6,907.1 8,547.4 11,860.0 18,965.3 30,825.2
Forecast
2010 10,372.1 12,688.8 23,060.9 1,636.8 7,174.7 8,811.5 12,008.9 19,863.5 31,872.4
2011 10,607.4 13,590.2 24,197.6 1,645.6 7,585.0 9,230.5 12,253.0 21,175.2 33,428.2
2012 10,932.6 14,635.0 25,567.5 1,666.9 8,062.0 9,728.9 12,599.5 22,696.9 35,296.4
2013 11,231.8 15,737.2 26,969.0 1,682.8 8,556.1 10,238.9 12,914.5 24,293.3 37,207.8
2014 11,493.4 16,910.6 28,404.0 1,691.6 9,073.7 10,765.3 13,185.1 25,984.3 39,169.3

88
2015 11,754.8 18,128.5 29,883.3 1,699.2 9,599.4 11,298.6 13,454.0 27,727.8 41,181.9
2016 12,016.2 19,390.3 31,406.5 1,705.6 10,132.1 11,837.7 13,721.8 29,522.3 43,244.2
2017 12,281.3 20,706.6 32,987.9 1,711.3 10,676.5 12,387.8 13,992.6 31,383.2 45,375.8
2018 12,570.2 22,118.8 34,689.0 1,719.0 11,252.9 12,971.9 14,289.2 33,371.7 47,660.9
2019 12,886.7 23,634.1 36,520.8 1,729.0 11,863.2 13,592.2 14,615.7 35,497.3 50,113.0
2020 13,237.5 25,270.6 38,508.0 1,742.1 12,514.4 14,256.5 14,979.6 37,785.0 52,764.5
2021 13,559.5 26,980.8 40,540.3 1,749.9 13,181.2 14,931.0 15,309.3 40,162.0 55,471.3
2022 13,878.9 28,769.2 42,648.1 1,755.8 13,864.4 15,620.2 15,634.7 42,633.6 58,268.3
2023 14,209.4 30,665.0 44,874.3 1,761.6 14,577.0 16,338.5 15,971.0 45,241.9 61,212.9
2024 14,542.9 32,693.0 47,235.9 1,766.3 15,328.4 17,094.7 16,309.2 48,021.4 64,330.6
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2025 14,897.8 34,865.8 49,763.6 1,772.0 16,122.5 17,894.5 16,669.8 50,988.3 67,658.1
2026 15,258.6 37,144.6 52,403.2 1,776.8 16,939.0 18,715.8 17,035.4 54,083.6 71,118.9
2027 15,611.1 39,559.2 55,170.3 1,779.0 17,789.6 19,568.6 17,390.1 57,348.8 74,738.9
2028 15,973.7 42,095.3 58,068.9 1,780.8 18,665.8 20,446.6 17,754.4 60,761.1 78,515.5
2029 16,337.3 44,775.2 61,112.5 1,781.0 19,575.5 21,356.5 18,118.3 64,350.7 82,469.0
2030 16,724.3 47,615.7 64,340.0 1,782.2 20,523.5 22,305.7 18,506.5 68,139.2 86,645.7
Avg Annual Growth
2000-09 -0.1% 5.3% 2.5% -10.4% -1.3% -3.9% -2.4% 2.4% 0.3%
2009-10 1.5% 5.2% 3.5% -0.2% 3.9% 3.1% 1.3% 4.7% 3.4%
2010-20 2.5% 7.1% 5.3% 0.6% 5.7% 4.9% 2.2% 6.6% 5.2%
2009-30 2.4% 6.8% 5.2% 0.4% 5.3% 4.7% 2.1% 6.3% 5.0%

* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

1 Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.
 TABLE 20
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS
PASSENGER JET AIRCRAFT

CALENDAR LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODY LARGE REGIONAL TOTAL

YEAR 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL JETS JETS JETS

Historical
2000 3,364 385 0 3,749 424 169 120 713 4,462 26 4,488

2005 3,308 37 0 3,345 466 29 54 549 3,894 12 3,906

2006 3,302 26 0 3,328 463 19 49 531 3,859 39 3,898
2007 3,354 29 0 3,383 477 12 47 536 3,919 64 3,983
2008 3,170 10 1 3,181 470 9 44 523 3,704 91 3,795
2009E 3,040 9 1 3,050 466 10 40 516 3,566 100 3,666

Forecast
2010 3,003 9 1 3,013 477 10 40 527 3,540 109 3,649

2011 3,022 8 1 3,031 484 10 40 534 3,565 124 3,689

2012 3,075 7 1 3,083 490 10 40 540 3,623 134 3,757
2013 3,160 6 1 3,167 517 8 40 565 3,732 146 3,878

89
2014 3,186 5 0 3,191 533 6 40 579 3,770 166 3,936
2015 3,259 4 0 3,263 564 4 38 606 3,869 182 4,051

2016 3,310 4 0 3,314 578 2 28 608 3,922 192 4,114

2017 3,372 3 0 3,375 604 0 18 622 3,997 196 4,193
2018 3,457 1 0 3,458 622 0 8 630 4,088 201 4,289
2019 3,537 1 0 3,538 648 0 6 654 4,192 206 4,398
2020 3,580 0 0 3,580 676 0 4 680 4,260 198 4,458

2021 3,589 0 0 3,589 705 0 2 707 4,296 198 4,494

2022 3,670 0 0 3,670 745 0 0 745 4,415 203 4,618
2023 3,706 0 0 3,706 773 0 0 773 4,479 203 4,682
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2024 3,798 0 0 3,798 804 0 0 804 4,602 208 4,810

2025 3,822 0 0 3,822 840 0 0 840 4,662 208 4,870

2026 3,858 0 0 3,858 873 0 0 873 4,731 213 4,944

2027 3,914 0 0 3,914 912 0 0 912 4,826 213 5,039
2028 3,972 0 0 3,972 945 0 0 945 4,917 218 5,135
2029 4,034 0 0 4,034 990 0 0 990 5,024 218 5,242
2030 4,093 0 0 4,093 1,026 0 0 1,026 5,119 223 5,342

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 -1.1% -34.1% NA -2.3% 1.1% -27.0% -11.5% -3.5% -2.5% 16.1% -2.2%
2009-10 -1.2% 0.0% 0.0% -1.2% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% -0.7% 9.0% -0.5%
2010-20 1.8% -100.0% -100.0% 1.7% 3.5% -100.0% -20.6% 2.6% 1.9% 6.2% 2.0%
2009-30 1.4% -100.0% -100.0% 1.4% 3.8% -100.0% -20.6% 3.3% 1.7% 3.9% 1.8%
 TABLE 21
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS
CARGO JET AIRCRAFT

CALENDAR LARGE NARROWBODY LARGE WIDEBODY

TOTAL
YEAR 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL
Historical
2000 166 332 176 674 164 158 68 390 1,064

2005 164 233 90 487 246 193 75 514 1,001

2006 162 220 78 460 264 208 80 552 1,012
2007 162 162 75 399 276 213 86 575 974
2008 161 143 68 372 276 215 97 588 960
2009E 158 107 33 298 259 206 91 556 854

Forecast
2010 164 107 32 303 279 207 88 574 877

2011 171 107 30 308 297 213 91 601 909

2012 180 104 28 312 311 218 93 622 934
2013 204 86 26 316 321 222 96 639 955

90
2014 236 62 21 319 337 226 96 659 978
2015 259 47 17 323 354 230 98 682 1,005

2016 279 36 7 322 377 234 100 711 1,033

2017 302 25 0 327 398 235 104 737 1,064
2018 323 15 0 338 413 235 107 755 1,093
2019 344 5 0 349 431 233 111 775 1,124
2020 361 0 0 361 447 233 114 794 1,155

2021 372 0 0 372 463 233 118 814 1,186

2022 383 0 0 383 485 227 121 833 1,216
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2023 395 0 0 395 512 217 125 854 1,249

2024 406 0 0 406 539 207 128 874 1,280
2025 422 0 0 422 571 197 132 900 1,322

2026 439 0 0 439 603 187 135 925 1,364

2027 455 0 0 455 635 177 139 951 1,406
2028 471 0 0 471 667 167 142 976 1,447
2029 488 0 0 488 699 157 146 1,002 1,490
2030 504 0 0 504 726 152 149 1,027 1,531

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 -0.5% -11.8% -17.0% -8.7% 5.2% 3.0% 3.3% 4.0% -2.4%
2009-10 3.8% 0.0% -3.0% 1.7% 7.7% 0.5% -3.3% 3.2% 2.7%
2010-20 8.2% -100.0% -100.0% 1.8% 4.8% 1.2% 2.6% 3.3% 2.8%
2009-30 5.7% -100.0% -100.0% 2.5% 5.0% -1.4% 2.4% 3.0% 2.8%
 TABLE 22
TOTAL JET FUEL AND AVIATION GASOLINE FUEL CONSUMPTION
U.S. CIVIL AVIATION AIRCRAFT
(Millions of Gallons)

JET FUEL AVIATION GASOLINE TOTAL

FISCAL 1
U.S. AIR CARRIERS GENERAL AIR GENERAL FUEL
YEAR TOTAL TOTAL
DOMESTIC INT’L. TOTAL AVIATION CARRIER AVIATION CONSUMED

Historical*
2000 14,746 5,297 20,043 972 21,015 2 333 335 21,350

2005 13,978 5,378 19,356 1,527 20,883 2 295 297 21,180

2006 13,461 5,851 19,313 1,643 20,955 2 283 285 21,241
2007 13,538 6,045 19,583 1,486 21,069 2 274 276 21,344
2008 13,179 6,289 19,468 1,706 21,174 2 248 250 21,424
2009E 11,478 5,767 17,244 1,364 18,609 2 225 227 18,836

Forecast
2010 11,182 5,525 16,707 1,356 18,063 2 220 222 18,286

2011 11,189 5,700 16,889 1,567 18,456 2 233 235 18,691

2012 11,462 5,895 17,357 1,807 19,164 2 235 237 19,401
2013 11,705 6,097 17,802 2,046 19,848 2 235 237 20,086

91
2014 11,904 6,303 18,207 2,120 20,327 2 233 235 20,562
2015 12,104 6,507 18,611 2,195 20,806 2 232 234 21,040

2016 12,291 6,711 19,002 2,270 21,272 2 231 233 21,504

2017 12,480 6,914 19,394 2,342 21,736 2 231 233 21,969
2018 12,693 7,125 19,818 2,407 22,225 2 232 234 22,458
2019 12,931 7,352 20,283 2,476 22,759 2 233 235 22,994
2020 13,202 7,590 20,792 2,548 23,341 2 235 237 23,578

2021 13,425 7,823 21,247 2,621 23,868 2 237 239 24,107

2022 13,639 8,055 21,694 2,693 24,387 2 238 240 24,627
2023 13,861 8,292 22,153 2,770 24,923 2 240 242 25,166
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2024 14,081 8,533 22,615 2,849 25,464 2 244 246 25,709

2025 14,318 8,786 23,104 2,928 26,032 2 248 250 26,282

2026 14,540 9,045 23,585 3,008 26,592 2 252 254 26,846

2027 14,748 9,304 24,053 3,090 27,143 2 256 258 27,401
2028 14,960 9,569 24,529 3,174 27,703 2 261 263 27,965
2029 15,168 9,836 25,004 3,263 28,268 2 265 267 28,535
2030 15,392 10,115 25,507 3,354 28,861 2 269 271 29,132

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 -2.7% 0.9% -1.7% 3.8% -1.3% 0.0% -4.2% -4.2% -1.4%
2009-10 -2.6% -4.2% -3.1% -0.6% -2.9% 0.0% -2.3% -2.2% -2.9%
2010-20 1.7% 3.2% 2.2% 6.5% 2.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 2.6%
2009-30 1.4% 2.7% 1.9% 4.4% 2.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.8% 2.1%

* Source: Air carrier jet fuel, Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation; all others, FAA APO estimates.
1 Includes both passenger (mainline and regional air carrier) and cargo carriers.
 TABLE 23
U.S. REGIONAL CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

REVENUE PER
AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH
FISCAL PASSENGER MILE**
YEAR DOMESTIC INT’L. SYSTEM DOMESTIC INT’L. SYSTEM CURRENT $ 2009$
(Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Miles) (Miles) (Miles) (Cents) (Cents)
Historical*
2000 38.4 41.8 38.5 286.5 260.0 285.5 30.28 37.92

2005 48.6 52.4 48.7 434.7 434.2 434.7 19.67 21.73

2006 49.3 52.2 49.4 450.4 467.2 450.7 19.88 21.18
2007 49.9 54.0 50.0 451.5 518.1 452.9 20.18 21.01
2008 52.8 53.4 52.9 460.8 532.7 462.3 21.44 21.38
2009E 55.0 52.8 55.0 456.5 511.3 457.4 19.04 19.04

Forecast
2010 56.2 53.1 56.2 453.8 516.3 454.8 20.23 19.95

2011 56.8 53.4 56.7 455.2 521.3 456.3 20.76 20.09

2012 57.3 53.7 57.2 462.9 526.3 463.9 20.90 19.79
2013 57.8 54.0 57.7 471.3 531.3 472.2 20.97 19.50
2014 58.2 54.3 58.1 479.5 536.3 480.4 21.05 19.20

92
2015 58.6 54.6 58.5 487.9 541.3 488.8 21.14 18.92

2016 58.9 54.9 58.9 495.2 546.3 496.0 21.25 18.65

2017 59.3 55.2 59.2 502.7 551.3 503.4 21.36 18.38
2018 59.7 55.5 59.7 510.2 556.3 510.9 21.46 18.12
2019 60.3 55.8 60.2 517.8 561.3 518.5 21.55 17.86
2020 60.8 56.1 60.7 525.6 566.3 526.3 21.62 17.61

2021 61.3 56.4 61.2 532.2 571.3 532.8 21.69 17.37

2022 61.8 56.7 61.7 538.8 576.3 539.4 21.78 17.14
2023 62.3 57.0 62.2 545.6 581.3 546.1 21.86 16.91
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2024 62.7 57.3 62.6 552.4 586.3 552.9 21.96 16.68

2025 63.1 57.6 63.0 559.3 591.3 559.8 22.07 16.46

2026 63.6 57.9 63.5 564.9 596.3 565.4 22.27 16.30

2027 64.0 58.2 63.9 570.5 601.3 571.0 22.48 16.14
2028 64.5 58.5 64.4 576.2 606.3 576.7 22.69 15.99
2029 64.9 58.8 64.8 582.0 611.3 582.5 22.92 15.83
2030 65.4 59.1 65.3 587.8 616.3 588.3 23.16 15.68

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 -5.0% -7.4%
2009-10 6.3% 4.8%
2010-20 0.7% -1.2%
2009-30 0.9% -0.9%

* Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

** Reporting carriers.
 TABLE 24
U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS
SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC
(In Millions)

FISCAL REVENUE PASSENGERS REVENUE PASSENGER MILES

YEAR DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
Historical*
2000 79.7 3.1 82.8 22,825 814 23,639

2005 146.4 3.3 149.7 63,654 1,417 65,071

2006 152.2 3.5 155.7 68,532 1,634 70,166
2007 156.2 3.4 159.6 70,528 1,772 72,300
2008 159.1 3.5 162.6 73,305 1,867 75,172
2009E 153.8 2.6 156.3 70,188 1,304 71,492

Forecast
2010 160.8 2.7 163.4 72,953 1,377 74,330

2011 166.2 2.8 168.9 75,641 1,437 77,078

2012 172.0 2.9 174.8 79,596 1,502 81,098
2013 177.7 2.9 180.6 83,732 1,566 85,298

93
2014 182.9 3.0 186.0 87,725 1,628 89,353
2015 188.0 3.1 191.1 91,717 1,688 93,406

2016 193.0 3.2 196.2 95,577 1,750 97,327

2017 198.1 3.3 201.4 99,578 1,812 101,390
2018 203.7 3.4 207.0 103,900 1,880 105,780
2019 209.7 3.5 213.1 108,574 1,953 110,527
2020 216.3 3.6 219.9 113,692 2,033 115,725

2021 222.5 3.7 226.2 118,417 2,109 120,526

2022 228.7 3.8 232.5 123,233 2,187 125,420
2023 235.1 3.9 239.0 128,266 2,268 130,534
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2024 241.6 4.0 245.6 133,462 2,351 135,812

2025 248.6 4.1 252.7 139,025 2,439 141,464

2026 255.6 4.2 259.9 144,398 2,529 146,928

2027 262.6 4.4 266.9 149,803 2,620 152,423
2028 269.7 4.5 274.2 155,417 2,713 158,130
2029 276.9 4.6 281.5 161,163 2,809 163,972
2030 284.6 4.7 289.3 167,265 2,910 170,175

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 7.6% -2.2% 7.3% 13.3% 5.4% 13.1%
2009-10 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 3.9% 5.6% 4.0%
2010-20 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.5% 4.0% 4.5%
2009-30 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.2% 3.9% 4.2%

* Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

 TABLE 25
U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS
SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

FISCAL
YEAR ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD ASMs RPMs % LOAD
(MIL) (MIL) FACTOR (MIL) (MIL) FACTOR (MIL) (MIL) FACTOR
Historical*
2000 38,332 22,825 59.5 1,338 814 60.8 39,670 23,639 59.6

2005 90,028 63,654 70.7 2,213 1,417 64.0 92,240 65,071 70.5
2006 91,458 68,532 74.9 2,387 1,634 68.5 93,845 70,166 74.8
2007 93,452 70,528 75.5 2,550 1,772 69.5 96,002 72,300 75.3
2008 99,469 73,305 73.7 2,632 1,867 70.9 102,101 75,172 73.6
2009E 94,421 70,188 74.3 1,873 1,304 69.6 96,294 71,492 74.2

Forecast
2010 96,258 72,953 75.8 1,964 1,377 70.1 98,222 74,330 75.7

2011 98,734 75,641 76.6 2,035 1,437 70.6 100,769 77,078 76.5
2012 103,810 79,596 76.7 2,111 1,502 71.1 105,922 81,098 76.6
2013 109,120 83,732 76.7 2,187 1,566 71.6 111,306 85,298 76.6
2014 114,242 87,725 76.8 2,257 1,628 72.1 116,499 89,353 76.7

94
2015 119,361 91,717 76.8 2,325 1,688 72.6 121,686 93,406 76.8

2016 124,307 95,577 76.9 2,392 1,750 73.1 126,699 97,327 76.8
2017 129,435 99,578 76.9 2,461 1,812 73.6 131,896 101,390 76.9
2018 134,979 103,900 77.0 2,536 1,880 74.1 137,515 105,780 76.9
2019 140,979 108,574 77.0 2,617 1,953 74.6 143,596 110,527 77.0
2020 147,553 113,692 77.1 2,705 2,033 75.1 150,259 115,725 77.0

2021 153,615 118,417 77.1 2,789 2,109 75.6 156,404 120,526 77.1
2022 159,793 123,233 77.1 2,873 2,187 76.1 162,666 125,420 77.1
2023 166,253 128,266 77.2 2,959 2,268 76.6 169,212 130,534 77.1
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2024 172,920 133,462 77.2 3,048 2,351 77.1 175,967 135,812 77.2
2025 180,062 139,025 77.2 3,142 2,439 77.6 183,204 141,464 77.2

2026 186,957 144,398 77.2 3,248 2,529 77.9 190,205 146,928 77.2
2027 193,890 149,803 77.3 3,353 2,620 78.1 197,243 152,423 77.3
2028 201,093 155,417 77.3 3,462 2,713 78.4 204,555 158,130 77.3
2029 208,466 161,163 77.3 3,572 2,809 78.6 212,038 163,972 77.3
2030 216,296 167,265 77.3 3,696 2,910 78.7 219,993 170,175 77.4

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 10.5% 13.3% 3.8% 5.4% 10.4% 13.1%
2009-10 1.9% 3.9% 4.8% 5.6% 2.0% 4.0%
2010-20 4.4% 4.5% 3.3% 4.0% 4.3% 4.5%
2009-30 4.0% 4.2% 3.3% 3.9% 4.0% 4.2%

* Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

 TABLE 26
U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS
PASSENGER AIRCRAFT

REGIONAL AIRCRAFT
AS OF LESS
10 TO 19 20 TO 30 31 TO 40 SEATS OVER 40 SEATS TOTAL FLEET
JANUARY 1 THAN
SEATS SEATS PROP JET TOTAL PROP JET** TOTAL NON JET JET TOTAL
9 SEATS
Historical*
2000 470 470 262 474 74 548 155 496 651 1,704 570 2,274

2005 449 449 99 253 98 351 81 1,630 1,711 1,102 1,728 2,830
2006 453 453 88 224 96 320 87 1,632 1,719 1,056 1,728 2,784
2007 453 453 79 228 98 326 101 1,656 1,757 1,033 1,754 2,787
2008 451 451 68 180 43 223 121 1,730 1,851 927 1,773 2,700
2009E 466 466 65 153 6 159 115 1,704 1,819 902 1,710 2,612

Forecast
2010 454 454 65 145 0 145 129 1,603 1,732 896 1,603 2,499

2011 444 444 65 138 0 138 143 1,669 1,812 893 1,669 2,562
2012 393 393 65 103 0 103 156 1,705 1,861 820 1,705 2,525
2013 418 418 65 121 0 121 169 1,743 1,912 875 1,743 2,618
2014 405 405 65 113 0 113 183 1,748 1,931 867 1,748 2,615

95
2015 391 391 64 104 0 104 197 1,723 1,920 857 1,723 2,580

2016 376 376 64 95 0 95 209 1,704 1,913 844 1,704 2,548

2017 363 363 64 87 0 87 222 1,708 1,930 835 1,708 2,543
2018 347 347 63 78 0 78 235 1,706 1,941 821 1,706 2,527
2019 346 346 63 77 0 77 250 1,722 1,972 834 1,722 2,556
2020 346 346 63 77 0 77 265 1,766 2,031 849 1,766 2,615

2021 343 343 62 77 0 77 276 1,787 2,063 855 1,787 2,642

2022 341 341 62 77 0 77 292 1,852 2,144 868 1,852 2,720
2023 341 341 62 77 0 77 306 1,912 2,218 882 1,912 2,794
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2024 338 338 61 77 0 77 320 1,976 2,296 891 1,976 2,867

2025 337 337 61 77 0 77 334 2,060 2,394 903 2,060 2,963

2026 334 334 60 77 0 77 345 2,125 2,470 909 2,125 3,034

2027 332 332 60 77 0 77 358 2,200 2,558 919 2,200 3,119
2028 331 331 59 77 0 77 373 2,280 2,653 932 2,280 3,212
2029 331 331 59 77 0 77 388 2,360 2,748 947 2,360 3,307
2030 330 330 58 77 0 77 403 2,441 2,844 960 2,441 3,401

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 -0.1% -0.1% -14.3% -11.8% -24.4% -12.8% -3.3% 14.7% 12.1% -6.8% 13.0% 1.6%
2009-10 -2.6% -2.6% 0.0% -5.2% N/A -8.8% 12.2% -5.9% -4.8% -0.7% -6.3% -4.3%
2010-20 -2.7% -2.7% -0.3% -6.1% N/A -6.1% 7.5% 1.0% 1.6% -0.5% 1.0% 0.5%
2009-30 -1.6% -1.6% -0.5% -3.2% -99.9% -3.4% 6.2% 1.7% 2.2% 0.3% 1.7% 1.3%

*Source: The Velocity Group for the Regional Airline Association.

**Independence Air A319 aircraft are included in Table 20 - U.S. Mainline Air Carriers Passenger Jet Aircraft.
 TABLE 27
ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI AIRCRAFT

FIXED WING
ROTORCRAFT TOTAL
AS OF PISTON TURBINE EXPERI- SPORT GENERAL TOTAL TOTAL
OTHER
DEC. 31 SINGLE MULTI- TURBO TURBO MENTAL AIRCRAFT AVIATION PISTONS TURBINES
TOTAL TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL FLEET
ENGINE ENGINE PROP JET
Historical*
2000 149,422 21,091 170,513 5,762 7,001 12,763 2,680 4,470 7,150 20,407 NA 6,700 217,533 173,193 17,233

2005 148,102 19,504 167,606 7,942 9,823 17,765 3,039 5,689 8,728 23,627 170 6,454 224,350 170,645 23,454
2006 145,033 18,708 163,741 8,063 10,379 18,442 3,264 5,895 9,159 23,047 1,273 6,277 221,939 167,005 24,337
2007 147,571 19,335 166,906 9,514 10,385 19,899 2,769 6,798 9,567 23,228 6,066 5,940 231,606 169,675 26,697
2008 145,497 17,519 163,016 8,907 11,042 19,949 3,498 6,378 9,876 23,364 6,811 5,652 228,668 166,514 26,327
2009E 144,745 17,351 162,096 9,010 11,418 20,428 3,666 6,540 10,206 23,435 7,311 5,673 229,149 165,762 26,968

Forecast
2010 144,104 17,177 161,281 9,100 11,779 20,879 3,830 6,715 10,545 23,605 7,711 5,679 229,699 165,111 27,594

2011 143,502 17,041 160,543 9,214 12,184 21,398 4,005 6,920 10,925 24,320 8,711 5,684 231,581 164,548 28,318
2012 142,996 16,916 159,912 9,349 12,657 22,006 4,180 7,125 11,305 25,030 9,711 5,677 233,642 164,092 29,131
2013 142,581 16,791 159,372 9,500 13,217 22,718 4,360 7,335 11,695 25,680 10,611 5,670 235,746 163,732 30,053
2014 142,240 16,656 158,896 9,650 13,827 23,477 4,550 7,555 12,105 26,325 11,111 5,663 237,577 163,446 31,032
2015 141,955 16,520 158,475 9,799 14,466 24,265 4,755 7,795 12,550 26,965 11,611 5,657 239,522 163,230 32,060

96
2016 141,748 16,384 158,132 9,943 15,122 25,065 4,945 8,015 12,960 27,550 12,011 5,650 241,369 163,077 33,080
2017 141,613 16,241 157,854 10,085 15,798 25,883 5,125 8,225 13,350 28,125 12,411 5,644 243,267 162,979 34,108
2018 141,594 16,098 157,692 10,227 16,486 26,713 5,290 8,415 13,705 28,695 12,711 5,637 245,153 162,982 35,128
2019 141,727 15,955 157,682 10,370 17,191 27,561 5,455 8,605 14,060 29,260 13,011 5,631 247,206 163,137 36,166
2020 142,052 15,815 157,867 10,516 17,925 28,442 5,625 8,800 14,425 29,770 13,311 5,625 249,440 163,492 37,242

2021 142,550 15,681 158,231 10,665 18,691 29,357 5,795 9,000 14,795 30,275 13,611 5,618 251,888 164,026 38,357
2022 143,084 15,552 158,636 10,812 19,487 30,299 5,970 9,200 15,170 30,775 13,911 5,612 254,404 164,606 39,499
2023 143,696 15,424 159,120 10,959 20,315 31,274 6,145 9,400 15,545 31,270 14,211 5,606 257,026 165,265 40,674
2024 144,438 15,299 159,737 11,108 21,175 32,283 6,320 9,600 15,920 31,760 14,511 5,600 259,812 166,057 41,883
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2025 145,323 15,176 160,499 11,259 22,069 33,328 6,495 9,800 16,295 32,245 14,811 5,594 262,772 166,994 43,128

2026 146,143 15,059 161,202 11,411 22,996 34,407 6,670 10,005 16,675 32,675 15,111 5,588 265,658 167,872 44,412
2027 147,078 14,941 162,019 11,564 23,957 35,520 6,845 10,210 17,055 33,100 15,411 5,582 268,688 168,864 45,730
2028 148,139 14,827 162,966 11,717 24,952 36,669 7,020 10,415 17,435 33,520 15,711 5,576 271,877 169,986 47,084
2029 149,319 14,711 164,030 11,870 25,979 37,849 7,195 10,620 17,815 33,935 16,011 5,571 275,210 171,225 48,469
2030 150,646 14,597 165,243 12,023 27,035 39,059 7,370 10,825 18,195 34,350 16,311 5,565 278,723 172,613 49,884

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 -0.4% -2.1% -0.6% 5.1% 5.6% 5.4% 3.5% 4.3% 4.0% 1.5% N/A -1.8% 0.6% -0.5% 5.1%
2009-10 -0.4% -1.0% -0.5% 1.0% 3.2% 2.2% 4.5% 2.7% 3.3% 0.7% 5.5% 0.1% 0.2% -0.4% 2.3%
2010-20 -0.1% -0.8% -0.2% 1.5% 4.3% 3.1% 3.9% 2.7% 3.2% 2.3% 5.6% -0.1% 0.8% -0.1% 3.0%
2009-30 0.2% -0.8% 0.1% 1.4% 4.2% 3.1% 3.4% 2.4% 2.8% 1.8% 3.9% -0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 3.0%

* Source: 2000-2008, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.
Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year.
 TABLE 28
ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI HOURS FLOWN
(In Thousands)

FIXED WING TOTAL

PISTON TURBINE ROTORCRAFT
CALENDAR EXPERI- SPORT GENERAL TOTAL TOTAL
OTHER
YEAR SINGLE MULTI- TURBO TURBO MENTAL AIRCRAFT AVIATION PISTONS TURBINES
TOTAL TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL
ENGINE ENGINE PROP JET HOURS
Historical*
2000 18,089 3,400 21,489 1,986 2,755 4,741 530 1,661 2,191 1,307 NA 374 30,102 22,019 6,402

2005 13,739 2,677 16,416 2,160 3,767 5,927 678 2,438 3,116 1,340 9 271 27,078 17,094 8,365
2006 13,976 2,550 16,525 2,162 4,077 6,240 918 2,528 3,446 1,218 66 211 27,705 17,443 8,767
2007 13,571 2,686 16,257 2,661 3,938 6,600 704 2,541 3,245 1,275 260 215 27,852 16,962 9,141
2008 12,746 2,328 15,074 2,457 3,600 6,057 751 2,470 3,222 1,155 293 209 26,009 15,825 8,527
2009E 11,436 2,132 13,568 2,241 2,902 5,143 709 2,356 3,065 1,031 314 208 23,330 14,277 7,499

Forecast
2010 11,004 2,105 13,109 2,272 2,904 5,176 726 2,371 3,096 1,000 332 208 22,921 13,835 7,547

2011 11,705 2,137 13,842 2,458 3,487 5,945 761 2,455 3,216 1,088 382 209 24,681 14,602 8,400
2012 11,856 2,122 13,978 2,537 4,196 6,733 796 2,541 3,336 1,198 435 210 25,889 14,774 9,273
2013 11,965 2,071 14,036 2,609 4,924 7,533 832 2,628 3,461 1,303 484 210 27,027 14,868 10,162
2014 11,855 2,019 13,875 2,650 5,170 7,821 871 2,721 3,591 1,403 517 211 27,418 14,745 10,541

97
2015 11,839 1,985 13,823 2,688 5,425 8,113 912 2,821 3,733 1,480 551 212 27,913 14,735 10,934

2016 11,747 1,946 13,692 2,714 5,697 8,411 951 2,915 3,866 1,520 582 213 28,284 14,643 11,326
2017 11,788 1,924 13,713 2,740 5,957 8,697 988 3,007 3,995 1,560 613 214 28,791 14,701 11,704
2018 11,868 1,911 13,779 2,776 6,197 8,973 1,022 3,092 4,114 1,599 641 214 29,320 14,802 12,064
2019 11,994 1,900 13,894 2,812 6,463 9,275 1,057 3,177 4,234 1,639 669 215 29,926 14,951 12,452
2020 12,127 1,887 14,014 2,842 6,739 9,581 1,093 3,265 4,358 1,676 698 216 30,543 15,107 12,846

2021 12,350 1,867 14,217 2,863 7,021 9,884 1,128 3,356 4,485 1,713 728 217 31,244 15,345 13,240
2022 12,459 1,862 14,321 2,898 7,311 10,209 1,165 3,448 4,614 1,750 759 218 31,870 15,486 13,657
2023 12,613 1,871 14,484 2,935 7,616 10,551 1,203 3,541 4,743 1,787 791 219 32,575 15,687 14,092
2024 12,842 1,883 14,725 2,963 7,933 10,896 1,240 3,634 4,874 1,824 824 219 33,362 15,965 14,530
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2025 13,134 1,900 15,034 2,986 8,257 11,243 1,277 3,728 5,006 1,862 857 220 34,222 16,312 14,971

2026 13,426 1,928 15,354 3,015 8,588 11,603 1,315 3,825 5,140 1,896 892 221 35,107 16,669 15,428
2027 13,739 1,953 15,693 3,054 8,930 11,984 1,353 3,923 5,276 1,930 928 222 36,034 17,046 15,907
2028 14,046 1,988 16,034 3,097 9,283 12,380 1,391 4,022 5,413 1,965 965 223 36,980 17,425 16,402
2029 14,320 2,027 16,347 3,138 9,662 12,800 1,429 4,122 5,551 1,999 1,003 224 37,925 17,776 16,922
2030 14,613 2,051 16,663 3,180 10,051 13,232 1,468 4,222 5,690 2,034 1,043 225 38,886 18,131 17,454

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 -5.0% -5.1% -5.0% 1.4% 0.6% 0.9% 3.3% 4.0% 3.8% -2.6% N/A -6.3% -2.8% -4.7% 1.8%
2009-10 -3.8% -1.3% -3.4% 1.4% 0.1% 0.7% 2.4% 0.6% 1.0% -3.0% 5.5% -0.4% -1.8% -3.1% 0.6%
2010-20 1.0% -1.1% 0.7% 2.3% 8.8% 6.4% 4.2% 3.3% 3.5% 5.3% 7.7% 0.4% 2.9% 0.9% 5.5%
2009-30 1.2% -0.2% 1.0% 1.7% 6.1% 4.6% 3.5% 2.8% 3.0% 3.3% 5.9% 0.4% 2.5% 1.1% 4.1%

* Source: 2000-2008, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Surveys.

Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the previous calendar year.
 TABLE 29
ACTIVE PILOTS BY TYPE OF CERTIFICATE

ROTOR- TOTAL INSTRUMENT

AS OF RECREA- SPORT AIRLINE GLIDER TOTAL
STUDENTS PRIVATE COMMERCIAL CRAFT LESS RATED
DEC. 31 TIONAL PILOT TRANSPORT ONLY PILOTS
ONLY AT PILOTS PILOTS1
Historical*
2000 93,064 340 NA 251,561 121,858 141,596 7,775 9,387 625,581 483,985 311,944

2005 87,213 278 134 228,619 120,614 141,992 9,518 21,369 609,737 467,745 311,500
2006 84,866 239 939 219,233 117,610 141,935 10,690 21,597 597,109 455,174 309,333
2007 84,339 239 2,031 211,096 115,127 143,953 12,290 21,274 590,349 446,396 309,865
2008 80,989 252 2,623 222,596 124,746 146,838 14,647 21,055 613,746 466,908 325,247
2009E 72,280 234 3,248 211,619 125,738 144,600 15,298 21,268 594,285 449,685 323,495

Forecast
2010 70,700 235 4,060 206,400 124,950 142,650 15,380 21,270 585,645 442,995 322,300

2011 69,050 235 4,872 202,000 125,150 142,750 15,540 21,350 580,947 438,197 321,100
2012 71,400 235 5,846 200,500 123,900 142,800 16,250 21,380 582,311 439,511 322,800
2013 73,150 235 6,150 200,550 119,850 143,750 17,010 21,410 582,105 438,355 324,500
2014 73,850 235 6,500 201,000 119,750 145,100 17,700 21,440 585,575 440,475 326,200
2015 74,300 235 6,850 201,600 119,650 145,750 18,300 21,470 588,155 442,405 327,900

18,860 21,510 592,705 446,005 329,600

98
2016 74,700 235 7,200 202,250 121,250 146,700
2017 74,950 235 7,600 202,850 122,650 147,300 19,420 21,540 596,545 449,245 332,100
2018 75,350 235 8,000 203,500 123,650 148,200 19,880 21,570 600,385 452,185 334,600
2019 75,500 235 8,400 204,050 124,550 149,100 20,240 21,600 603,675 454,575 337,200
2020 75,800 235 8,850 204,600 125,450 150,300 20,400 21,630 607,265 456,965 339,800

2021 76,200 235 9,250 205,200 126,300 151,250 20,390 21,670 610,495 459,245 343,200
2022 76,800 235 9,700 205,950 127,300 151,900 20,270 21,700 613,855 461,955 346,700
2023 77,400 235 10,150 206,800 128,400 153,450 20,140 21,730 618,305 464,855 350,200
2024 78,100 235 10,650 207,800 129,600 154,550 20,010 21,760 622,705 468,155 353,800
2025 79,000 235 11,150 209,000 130,900 156,050 20,060 21,800 628,195 472,145 357,400
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2026 80,100 235 11,700 210,450 132,350 157,350 20,210 21,830 634,225 476,875 361,000
2027 81,400 235 12,250 212,200 133,850 158,550 20,420 21,860 640,765 482,215 364,700
2028 82,850 235 12,850 214,250 135,450 160,000 20,670 21,890 648,195 488,195 368,400
2029 84,450 235 13,450 216,550 137,200 161,400 21,000 21,930 656,215 494,815 372,100
2030 86,050 235 14,100 219,050 139,100 162,900 21,380 21,960 664,775 501,875 375,900

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 -2.8% -4.1% N/A -1.9% 0.3% 0.2% 7.8% 9.5% -0.6% -0.8% 0.4%
2009-10 -2.2% 0.4% 25.0% -2.5% -0.6% -1.3% 0.5% 0.0% -1.5% -1.5% -0.4%
2010-20 0.7% 0.0% 8.1% -0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 2.9% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
2009-30 0.8% 0.0% 7.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 1.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7%

* Source: FAA U.S. Civil Airmen Statistics.

1 Instrument rated pilots should not be added to other categories in deriving total.
Note: An active pilot is a person with a pilot certificate and a valid medical certificate.
 TABLE 30
GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT FUEL CONSUMPTION
(In Millions of Gallons)

FIXED WING
ROTORCRAFT EXPERI- TOTAL FUEL CONSUMED
CALENDAR PISTON TURBINE
MENTAL/ SPORT
YEAR SINGLE MULTI- TURBO- TURBO-
ENGINE ENGINE PROP JET PISTON TURBINE OTHER AVGAS JET FUEL TOTAL

Historical
2000 200.8 108.4 176.3 736.7 8.4 59.0 15.2 NA 332.8 972.0 1,304.8

2005 173.1 89.7 196.1 1,181.3 14.6 149.2 17.7 0.0 295.0 1,526.7 1,821.7
2006 164.9 79.9 190.1 1,303.9 16.7 148.6 21.6 0.3 283.4 1,642.6 1,926.0
2007 157.6 83.0 205.2 1,148.0 9.3 132.4 22.6 1.2 273.6 1,485.6 1,759.2
2008 143.0 69.5 230.4 1,313.2 10.7 162.1 23.3 1.5 248.1 1,705.7 1,953.8
2009E 129.0 64.0 210.2 1,014.1 10.1 140.0 20.7 1.6 225.3 1,364.3 1,589.6

Forecast
2010 124.7 63.5 211.0 1,004.6 10.3 140.2 20.1 1.6 220.2 1,355.8 1,576.0

2011 133.3 64.8 228.2 1,194.4 10.8 144.4 21.9 1.9 232.6 1,567.1 1,799.7
2012 133.7 63.7 235.6 1,422.8 11.3 148.7 24.0 2.1 234.7 1,807.1 2,041.8
2013 133.6 61.5 239.8 1,653.2 11.8 153.1 26.1 2.3 235.2 2,046.1 2,281.3
2014 131.0 59.4 243.6 1,718.4 12.3 157.7 28.1 2.5 233.2 2,119.7 2,352.9

99
2015 129.5 57.8 247.2 1,784.9 12.8 162.7 29.4 2.6 232.2 2,194.8 2,427.0

2016 127.9 56.3 247.0 1,855.8 13.4 167.3 30.2 2.8 230.6 2,270.1 2,500.7
2017 127.7 55.5 249.4 1,920.9 13.9 171.7 31.0 2.9 231.0 2,342.0 2,573.0
2018 127.9 54.8 252.6 1,978.3 14.3 175.6 31.7 3.1 231.8 2,406.6 2,638.3
2019 128.6 54.2 253.3 2,042.8 14.8 179.6 32.5 3.1 233.2 2,475.7 2,708.9
2020 129.4 53.6 256.1 2,108.7 15.3 183.6 33.2 3.3 234.7 2,548.4 2,783.1

2021 131.1 52.7 258.0 2,174.9 15.8 187.8 33.9 3.4 237.0 2,620.6 2,857.6
2022 131.6 52.3 258.5 2,242.0 16.3 192.0 34.5 3.5 238.1 2,692.5 2,930.7
2023 132.6 52.3 261.8 2,312.2 16.8 196.1 35.2 3.6 240.5 2,770.2 3,010.7
2024 134.3 52.4 264.3 2,384.4 17.3 200.3 35.9 3.8 243.7 2,849.0 3,092.8
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2025 136.7 52.6 266.4 2,456.9 17.8 204.5 36.7 3.9 247.7 2,927.8 3,175.5

2026 139.0 53.1 268.9 2,530.0 18.3 208.8 37.4 4.1 251.9 3,007.7 3,259.6
2027 141.5 53.5 272.4 2,604.5 18.9 213.0 38.0 4.3 256.2 3,089.9 3,346.1
2028 144.0 54.2 276.3 2,680.1 19.4 217.3 38.7 4.4 260.7 3,173.7 3,434.4
2029 146.1 55.0 279.9 2,761.9 19.9 221.6 39.4 4.6 265.0 3,263.4 3,528.4
2030 148.3 55.4 283.7 2,844.3 20.5 225.8 40.1 4.8 269.0 3,353.8 3,622.8

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 -4.8% -5.7% 2.0% 3.6% 2.1% 10.1% 3.5% N/A -4.2% 3.8% 2.2%
2009-10 -3.3% -0.8% 0.4% -0.9% 2.4% 0.1% -3.0% 3.4% -2.3% -0.6% -0.9%
2010-20 0.4% -1.7% 2.0% 7.7% 4.0% 2.7% 5.1% 7.3% 0.6% 6.5% 5.9%
2009-30 0.7% -0.7% 1.4% 5.0% 3.4% 2.3% 3.2% 5.5% 0.8% 4.4% 4.0%

Source: FAA APO Estimates.

Note: Detail may not add to total because of independent rounding.
 TABLE 31
TOTAL COMBINED AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT AIRPORTS
WITH FAA AND CONTRACT TRAFFIC CONTROL SERVICE
(In Thousands)

FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL AVIATION MILITARY NUMBER OF TOWERS

YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL TOTAL FAA CONTRACT
Historical*
2000 15,158.7 10,760.5 22,844.1 17,034.4 39,878.5 1,439.8 1,448.2 2,888.0 68,685.7 266 192

2005 13,533.6 12,550.5 19,303.2 14,843.6 34,146.8 1,414.5 1,449.1 2,863.6 63,094.5 264 229
2006 13,256.3 11,967.6 18,707.1 14,365.4 33,072.5 1,358.4 1,417.4 2,775.8 61,072.2 263 231
2007 13,611.2 11,667.3 18,575.2 14,556.8 33,132.0 1,313.9 1,405.7 2,719.6 61,130.0 264 235
2008 13,779.1 11,028.9 17,521.3 14,146.7 31,668.0 1,283.7 1,217.7 2,501.4 58,977.4 264 239
2009E 12,831.3 9,510.4 15,554.5 12,419.9 27,974.4 1,294.0 1,262.5 2,556.5 52,872.6 264 244

Forecast
2010 12,519.5 9,326.0 14,982.3 12,114.9 27,097.2 1,278.0 1,238.6 2,516.6 51,459.3 264 244

2011 12,611.5 9,329.4 15,167.4 12,265.4 27,432.7 1,278.0 1,238.6 2,516.6 51,890.3 264 244
2012 12,915.9 9,441.2 15,356.1 12,418.3 27,774.5 1,278.0 1,238.6 2,516.6 52,648.2 264 244
2013 13,246.6 9,546.6 15,547.7 12,572.5 28,120.2 1,278.0 1,238.6 2,516.6 53,430.1 264 244
2014 13,552.9 9,643.0 15,741.7 12,727.3 28,469.1 1,278.0 1,238.6 2,516.6 54,181.6 264 244

100
2015 13,858.7 9,727.0 15,947.5 12,885.9 28,833.4 1,278.0 1,238.6 2,516.6 54,935.7 264 244

2016 14,162.6 9,831.9 16,155.6 13,046.7 29,202.3 1,278.0 1,238.6 2,516.6 55,713.4 264 244
2017 14,470.8 9,942.4 16,366.9 13,208.6 29,575.5 1,278.0 1,238.6 2,516.6 56,505.4 264 244
2018 14,803.6 10,059.4 16,581.9 13,372.5 29,954.4 1,278.0 1,238.6 2,516.6 57,334.0 264 244
2019 15,167.5 10,183.0 16,799.7 13,538.9 30,338.6 1,278.0 1,238.6 2,516.6 58,205.7 264 244
2020 15,562.9 10,327.8 17,020.9 13,708.0 30,728.9 1,278.0 1,238.6 2,516.6 59,136.2 264 244

2021 15,932.7 10,478.4 17,245.2 13,879.2 31,124.4 1,278.0 1,238.6 2,516.6 60,052.1 264 244
2022 16,303.5 10,638.9 17,473.1 14,052.6 31,525.7 1,278.0 1,238.6 2,516.6 60,984.7 264 244
2023 16,681.6 10,810.6 17,704.5 14,241.0 31,945.4 1,278.0 1,238.6 2,516.6 61,954.2 264 244
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2024 17,058.8 10,993.9 17,939.4 14,432.4 32,371.8 1,278.0 1,238.6 2,516.6 62,941.1 264 244
2025 17,457.8 11,202.2 18,177.9 14,627.1 32,805.0 1,278.0 1,238.6 2,516.6 63,981.6 264 244

2026 17,861.9 11,427.8 18,420.1 14,823.4 33,243.5 1,278.0 1,238.6 2,516.6 65,049.8 264 244
2027 18,252.7 11,670.4 18,666.1 15,023.1 33,689.1 1,278.0 1,238.6 2,516.6 66,128.8 264 244
2028 18,658.9 11,931.4 18,915.8 15,224.5 34,140.3 1,278.0 1,238.6 2,516.6 67,247.2 264 244
2029 19,063.3 12,212.3 19,169.5 15,429.3 34,598.8 1,278.0 1,238.6 2,516.6 68,390.9 264 244
2030 19,481.9 12,514.7 19,427.1 15,637.5 35,064.5 1,278.0 1,238.6 2,516.6 69,577.7 264 244

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 -1.8% -1.4% -4.2% -3.4% -3.9% -1.2% -1.5% -1.3% -2.9%
2009-10 -2.4% -1.9% -3.7% -2.5% -3.1% -1.2% -1.9% -1.6% -2.7%
2010-20 2.2% 1.0% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4%
2009-30 2.0% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% 1.3%

* Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.

 TABLE 32
TOTAL TRACON OPERATIONS
(In Thousands)

FISCAL AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL

MILITARY TOTAL
YEAR CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION
Historical*
2000 16,395.0 11,197.7 20,799.2 3,466.9 51,858.8

2005 14,123.4 12,751.1 17,388.9 2,798.7 47,062.1

2006 13,963.3 12,035.7 17,005.3 2,669.9 45,674.2
2007 14,366.0 11,675.8 16,747.4 2,498.7 45,288.0
2008 14,438.8 11,043.1 15,756.5 2,398.8 43,637.2
2009E 13,295.7 9,604.8 14,116.3 2,385.8 39,402.6

Forecast
2010 13,131.2 9,372.3 14,074.9 2,383.4 38,961.8

2011 13,366.0 9,375.7 14,230.3 2,383.4 39,355.4

2012 13,767.3 9,484.0 14,393.5 2,383.4 40,028.2
2013 14,160.4 9,586.1 14,559.0 2,383.4 40,688.9
2014 14,515.8 9,679.4 14,726.6 2,383.4 41,305.2
2015 14,876.9 9,760.8 14,901.7 2,383.4 41,922.8

101
2016 15,237.7 9,862.3 15,078.7 2,383.4 42,562.1
2017 15,605.8 9,969.2 15,258.3 2,383.4 43,216.7
2018 16,006.5 10,082.3 15,441.0 2,383.4 43,913.3
2019 16,447.2 10,201.9 15,626.1 2,383.4 44,658.5
2020 16,924.0 10,341.8 15,813.9 2,383.4 45,463.1

2021 17,361.2 10,487.2 16,004.3 2,383.4 46,236.0

2022 17,807.6 10,642.1 16,197.7 2,383.4 47,030.8
2023 18,263.3 10,807.7 16,393.9 2,383.4 47,848.3
2024 18,718.5 10,984.5 16,579.5 2,383.4 48,665.9
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2025 19,207.8 11,185.2 16,795.2 2,383.4 49,571.6

2026 19,699.6 11,402.4 17,000.3 2,383.4 50,485.7

2027 20,175.8 11,635.8 17,208.6 2,383.4 51,403.5
2028 20,676.3 11,886.7 17,420.0 2,383.4 52,366.4
2029 21,173.7 12,156.6 17,634.5 2,383.4 53,348.1
2030 21,692.7 12,446.8 17,852.3 2,383.4 54,375.3

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 -2.3% -1.7% -4.2% -4.1% -3.0%
2009-10 -1.2% -2.4% -0.3% -0.1% -1.1%
2010-20 2.6% 1.0% 1.2% 0.0% 1.6%
2009-30 2.4% 1.2% 1.1% 0.0% 1.5%

* Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.

 TABLE 33
IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED
AT FAA AIR ROUTE TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTERS
(In Thousands)

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED

FISCAL
YEAR AIR AIR TAXI/ GENERAL
MILITARY TOTAL
CARRIER COMMUTER AVIATION
Historical*
2000 24,987.0 8,100.9 8,744.3 4,192.5 46,024.8

2005 25,004.6 10,053.9 8,367.7 4,052.0 47,478.1

2006 24,394.5 9,436.7 8,197.0 4,149.7 46,177.8
2007 25,006.2 9,652.9 8,294.3 3,803.3 46,756.7
2008 23,847.3 10,174.1 7,664.7 3,648.8 45,334.9
2009E 22,216.7 8,543.9 6,305.8 2,991.7 40,058.1

Forecast
2010 22,051.3 8,222.7 6,138.2 2,991.1 39,403.2

2011 22,542.5 8,245.5 6,194.0 2,991.1 39,973.1

2012 23,400.4 8,360.0 6,251.2 2,991.1 41,002.6
2013 24,288.0 8,482.6 6,308.3 2,991.1 42,069.9
2014 25,135.6 8,601.3 6,365.1 2,991.1 43,093.1

102
2015 25,999.9 8,694.4 6,423.6 2,991.1 44,108.9

2016 26,867.2 8,802.1 6,481.9 2,991.1 45,142.3

2017 27,757.1 8,921.3 6,540.5 2,991.1 46,209.9
2018 28,721.5 9,038.2 6,599.5 2,991.1 47,350.2
2019 29,757.4 9,151.6 6,658.7 2,991.1 48,558.8
2020 30,855.7 9,270.4 6,718.3 2,991.1 49,835.4

2021 31,927.4 9,402.3 6,778.3 2,991.1 51,099.0

2022 33,014.8 9,543.8 6,838.8 2,991.1 52,388.4
2023 34,130.2 9,689.7 6,899.8 2,991.1 53,710.8
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030

2024 35,264.1 9,843.4 6,957.2 2,991.1 55,055.8

2025 36,482.2 10,009.2 7,023.4 2,991.1 56,505.8

2026 37,700.4 10,184.5 7,086.1 2,991.1 57,962.1

2027 38,918.5 10,370.3 7,149.4 2,991.1 59,429.2
2028 40,185.9 10,563.0 7,213.4 2,991.1 60,953.3
2029 41,476.3 10,767.3 7,278.0 2,991.1 62,512.6
2030 42,819.8 10,982.6 7,343.2 2,991.1 64,136.7

Avg Annual Growth

2000-09 -1.3% 0.6% -3.6% -3.7% -1.5%
2009-10 -0.7% -3.8% -2.7% 0.0% -1.6%
2010-20 3.4% 1.2% 0.9% 0.0% 2.4%
2009-30 3.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.0% 2.3%

* Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.

HQ-101076