Syria Peace Talks

in Geneva: A Road
to Nowhere

Radwan Ziadeh
March 27, 2017
Syria Peace Talks in Geneva: A Road to Nowhere Radwan Ziadeh

On March 3, 2017, the United Nations’ Special Istanbul. The anti-government protests
Envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, concluded intensified but were not under the opposition’s
the last round of Syria peace negotiations in control. At the same time, the international
Geneva by saying that it was a step forward community was focused elsewhere—on the fall
because it succeeded in securing a final agenda of the Qadhafi regime and its aftermath.
for another round of talks.
The UN Security Council was united enough to
It is interesting to note that the new measure of pass Resolution 1973 to “protect the civilians” of
progress in peace talks, according to the United Libya by all necessary means. However, the
Nations, is to create an agenda for the next council later became divided and polarized on
round of talks! This reflects exactly how the Syria when Russia and China began to veto
negotiations in Geneva have become: a goal statements critical of the Syrian regime. In 2011
unto themselves, instead of providing a bridge and 2012, the council could not issue any
to end the Syrian crisis, now entering its seventh condemnations of the continued violence by the
year. Syrian government against its own people
because Russia used its veto twice.
Prelude to the Geneva Communiqué of 2012
The Syrian opposition realized the need for
After the eruption of the Syrian uprising in building an international coalition outside the
2011, the Syrian opposition faced the mammoth security council which could develop some
task of building and structuring itself quickly. options to protect the Syrian people. Thus, a
Due to the nature of Syrian authoritarianism, “Friends of the Syrian People” group of nations
and the leaderless and ideology-less Syrian was established and it held its first meeting in
revolution at the time, the opposition had to be Tunisia in February 2012. Nothing came of that
created as a fully representative body in a few meeting, however, and another was arranged to
months’ time, which was virtually impossible. be held in Istanbul. At that time, Turkey started
talking about the need for safe zones and no-fly
The first attempt at organizing the opposition zones as a means to protect the Free Syrian
was the September 2011 establishment of the Army and encourage more defections within
Syrian National Council (SNC), a loose alliance President Bashar al-Asad's army.
that emerged as a political umbrella for
different Syrian opposition groups. The SNC Here started the gap between the high
used Istanbul as a base for all its activities. expectation of the Syrian opposition and
Peaceful protests continued in most of the regional powers like Turkey and Saudi Arabia,
Syrian cities without any ability to build a on the one hand, and the international
strong connection between the protesters on the community and especially the United States, on
ground and the leadership of the SNC in the other. The Obama Administration was not
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Arab Center Washington DC March 2017

ready to move from political rhetoric to military the statement, requiring full Syrian regime
action. The Syrian opposition realized that this cooperation, outlined the "release of
makes the idea of “Friends of the Syrian People” arbitrarily detained persons, especially
useless, and the newly appointed Joint Special persons involved in peaceful political
Envoy of the United Nations and the League of activities” and “respecting freedom of
Arab States for Syria, Kofi Annan, discovered association and the right to demonstrate
that he had very limited power over the parties peacefully as legally guaranteed.”
involved in the conflict. Annan learned that the
Security Council would not grant him the As a result, the Syrian government realized
support he needed for his mission, so he that the transition would be inevitable if the
decided to move in a different direction and the Geneva Communiqué were implemented.
Geneva process started. Instead, the government decided to execute a
large-scale detention campaign against the
The Geneva Process peaceful protesters while, at the same time,
trying with all possible means to suppress the
The Geneva Communiqué was announced by protests. They became larger in size, especially
Kofi Annan on June 30, 2012 in Geneva, under in Hama and Homs, and took place in more
the umbrella of the “Action Group for Syria.” targeted locations in the heart of the big cities
However, neither the Syrian regime nor the like Hama and Aleppo.
opposition attended the meeting that
formulated the plan. Embedded in the The Joint Special Envoy, Kofi Annan, decided
communiqué was the idea of “power sharing,” to resign in August 2012. He stated later in an
which had worked very well in Kenya interview that the Security Council had not
according to Annan, who was the UN secretary backed his efforts. Annan was criticized from
general at that time. The Geneva almost everyone in the Syrian government
Communiqué states that any political solution and the opposition, both of whom were
must be accepted by both parties, who have displeased because the former did not want
“mutual vetoes,” referring here to the Syrian any implementation of the plan, and the latter
government and the opposition. At the same because he was not doing enough to
time, it mentioned that the transfer of power implement it.
should be done through what is called a
“transitional governing body with full Annan’s replacement was the Algerian
authorities.” veteran diplomat Lakhdar Brahimi, who
stated he would continue to work on carrying
The Syrian government rejected the Geneva out the principles of the Geneva Communiqué
Communiqué and never said it would by convening a new meeting in Geneva of the
implement it. The six-point plan mentioned in two parties—the Syrian government and

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Syria Peace Talks in Geneva: A Road to Nowhere Radwan Ziadeh

opposition— to start direct negotiations to negotiate as well as to enforce any deal on the
agree on the six-point plan. domestic players. This is why he insisted on
including Iran, despite the Islamic Republic’s
The Syrian opposition formed a new body rejection of the Geneva Communiqué.
called the National Coalition for Syrian
Revolutionary and Opposition Forces in After the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and the
Doha, after criticism that the Syrian National Levant (ISIL) in Syria, the Obama
Council was not representative of the Syrian Administration decided to conduct strikes
opposition. It agreed to attend the first direct against it in Raqqa without conferring with the
talks with representatives from the Asad Syrian government. Obama stated that to be
government in January 2014. Brahimi able to eliminate ISIL from Syria, there needed
discovered that the gap between the two to be a political transition that enabled the
groups was huge. In addition, Russia did little Syrian people to form a legitimate government
to persuade the Syrian government to accept that can unify them against terrorism. He
the Geneva Communiqué, which became part instructed Secretary of State John Kerry to
of the two Security Council resolutions 2042 convince Russia to support his new approach
and 2043. Brahimi, however, felt powerless toward Syria—fighting ISIL as a priority but, at
and resigned in May 2014. the same time, supporting negotiations to forge
a political settlement in the country.
The war in Syria entered a new stage after the
Ghouta chemical attack in August 2013, which Kerry and Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs
killed at least 1,400 civilians on the outskirts of Sergei Lavrov agreed to form two international
Damascus, among them 400 children. The tracks to deal with the Syria crisis, one to
ensuing deal between the United States and respond to the humanitarian crisis and
Russia asserted that the Syrian government implement Security Council resolution 2268,
give up its chemical weapons in order to avoid and another to convene a meeting in Vienna
any military strikes by the Obama called the International Syria Support Group
Administration. (ISSG), which was held on November 14, 2015.
Again, representatives of neither the Syrian
The Vienna and Astana Tracks government nor the opposition attended the
meeting. The new group issued a statement
Two months after the resignation of Joint acknowledging “the close linkage between a
Special Envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, UN Secretary- ceasefire and a parallel political process under
General Ban Ki-moon appointed the Italian the 2012 Geneva Communiqué, and that both
diplomat Staffan de Mistura to take his place. initiatives should move ahead expeditiously.”
De Mistura had a new approach, one that This agreement generated Security Council
brought all regional actors to the table to resolution 2254 in December 2015, which was

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Arab Center Washington DC March 2017

adopted unanimously and laid the foundation had become more frustrated by the United
for the current Syrian negotiations in Geneva to States because of its continued support of the
end the conflict. Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD, or the
Syrian version of the PKK), sponsored the
Since his appointment in January 2016, Joint “Astana track” with participation of the Syrian
Special Envoy de Mistura convened two rounds armed opposition for the first time. The focus
of talks in Geneva between the newly was exclusively on the implementation of the
constituted opposition group, called the High ceasefire agreed to after the battles in Aleppo,
Negotiation Committee (HNC), and the Syrian but neither the Syrian government nor Russia
government. Like previous talks, there were no had respected the ceasefire. The opposition
immediate results. The battle on the ground had discovered that the “Astana track” was a cover
started to shift in favor of the Syrian for the government to control more areas like
government after the Russian military the rebel-held al-Waer neighborhood in Homs.
intervention in September 2015. The second This is why the Syrian opposition decided not
round of negotiations, in February 2017, to participate in the second round of the
formulated the agenda for the next round—this “Astana track” earlier this month; for many of
without any agreement on any of the issues them, it signaled the end of the Astana talks.
discussed and mentioned in Security Council
resolution 2254 regarding the constitution, Why the Geneva Talks Will Lead Nowhere
governance, elections, and other pressing
matters. The Syrian government insisted on At present, the international community views
adding terrorism to the list, but the opposition the Syrian crisis as three separate crises, namely:
insisted on prioritizing the issue of transition as
a key to discussing other issues. 1. Terrorism: the emergence of terrorist
groups in Syria like ISIL and Al-Qaeda,
The United States was almost absent in Syria and the push to eliminate these
during the last year of the Obama organizations from Syria. This is a
Administration. This led to the collapse of the priority for the United States.
ceasefire and an increase in the number of 2. Refugees: the flight of a large number of
besieged areas as the Syrian government Syrian refugees to neighboring countries
eliminated the opposition in Daraya and then, under difficult conditions, their
Aleppo, which created a vacuum filled by attempts to transit into Europe. This is a
Russia. Moscow then started another initiative, priority for the European Union.
called the “Astana track,” after the Syrian 3. Political transition: the need for political
government recaptured the areas of Eastern stability, stemming from the importance
Aleppo that had been under Syrian opposition of achieving a political transition that
control since 2012. Russia and Turkey, which allows Syrians to choose their president

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Syria Peace Talks in Geneva: A Road to Nowhere Radwan Ziadeh

and their political system. This is a players, like Turkey and Iran, which all make it
priority for the Syrian opposition. nearly impossible to reach any agreement or to
have meaningful talks that can lead to a
Unfortunately, the international community workable solution.
today is focused only on the first and second
crises, showing no intention to back the political The priority of the Syrian government and
transition. Indeed, the negotiations held in Russia continues to be returning Syria to its
Geneva did not make any political progress status before 2011—that is, under the full
whatsoever after four rounds in four years. control of Asad’s authoritarian governance. The
United States, on the other hand, has put all its
Today, six years after the beginning of the efforts toward getting rid of ISIL from Syria
peaceful protests in Syria, the need to have a without any linkage to the importance of having
political transition is more important than ever. a democratic transition in the country.
It behooves the international community to Therefore, the new round of talks in Geneva will
develop a strategic plan to address these three continue to lead nowhere.
crises together since they are interconnected. It
is not possible to eliminate terrorism in Syria The last six years have shown that employing
and return millions of refugees to their homes the carrot-and-stick approach in Syria does not
without forming a political and inclusive work because the Syrian regime knows the stick
settlement that can put pressure on the Asad will not be used. From experience, Bashar al-
regime to achieve such a transition. Asad understands that the international
community will not back its strong words with
If the goal of such a transition is to put an end to actions; this is why he still believes that he will
the authoritarian regime in Damascus and build be able to return Syria to its status quo ante. At
a new democratic, pluralistic, and non-sectarian the same time, Barack Obama realized that
system based on the principles of citizenship military force was needed to push the political
and equality of all citizens before the law, then solution he talked about many times; however,
all terrorist organizations and sectarian such a scenario would have involved a long-
militias— like Iranian-backed groups, term commitment of the US military, which
Hezbollah, and other Shiite militias—also made him decide to devote all US resources to
should leave Syria. However, it is clear that all the fight against ISIL in Syria—thus leaving the
these rounds of negotiations did not lead to this political transition to be addressed by
goal. Reasons include the huge gap between the negotiations that have not led to any tangible
parties and their backers and disunity outcome.
regarding an agenda, the conflicting agenda of
the international players in Syria, like the Syria has become the tragedy of our time. The
United States and Russia, and the regional international community has exhausted all the

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Arab Center Washington DC March 2017

options, including sanctions, diplomatic proposed may be an effective way to force the
envoys, and political negotiations. None of Asad government to take negotiations seriously
them has worked. It may now be time to use the and accept the reality of the need for a transition
carrot-and-stick approach with Asad, this time in Syria. This could be a way to save what is left
following through to effect change. The safe of Syria.
zones that President Donald Trump has

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