Game Theory
Mohammad Hossein Manshaei
   manshaei@gmail.com
          1402
Contents
1.   Formal Definitions/Notations
2.   Strict versus Weak Dominance
3.   Iterative Deletion of Dominated Strategy
4.   Median Voter Theorem
5.   Model Simplification for Engineering
     Application: Examples
                                                2
        Pick a Number Game
  Without showing your neighbor what you’re doing, write down an
  integer number between 1 and 100. I will calculate the average
  number chosen in the class.The winner in this game is the person
  whose number is closest to two-thirds (2/3) of the average in the
  class.The winner will win 10 $ minus the difference in cents
  between her choice and that two-thirds of the average.
Example: 3 students                                       1-10: 3
Numbers: 25, 5, 60                                        11-20: 4
Total: 90, Average: 30, 2/3*average: 20                   21-30: 12
                                                          31-40: 13
                                                          41-50: 6
25 wins: 10 $ –.01 * 5 = 9.95 $                           51-60: 1
                                                          61-70: 0
                                                          71-80: 1
                                                          81-90: ?
                                                          91-100: 0   3
                          Notations
              Notation                                Pick a Number Game
Players       i, j, …                                 You all
Strategy      si: a particular strategy of player i   S4=12, s8=22
              s-i: the strategy of everybody else
              except player i
Strategy Set Si: the set of possible strategies of {1, 2, …, 100}
             player i
Strategy      s: a particular play of the game        The collection of your pieces of
Profile       “strategy profile”                      paper
              (vector, or list)
Payoffs       ui(s1,…, si,…, sN) = ui(s)                        $10 - .01*Δ if you win
                                                      ui(s) =
                                                                0           otherwise
                                                                                         4
                Assumptions
• We assume all the ingredients of the game to be
  known
 – Everybody knows the possible strategies everyone else
   could choose
 – Everybody knows everyone else’s payoffs
     Complete Information Game
• This is not very realistic, but we start from this class
  of games
                                                             5
               Classification of games
 Non-cooperative                       Cooperative
 Static                                Dynamic (repeated)
 Strategic-form                        Extensive-form
 Perfect information                   Imperfect information
 Complete information                  Incomplete information
Perfect information: each player can observe the action of each other player.
Complete information: each player knows the identity of other players and,
for each of them, the payoff resulting of each strategy.
                                                                                6
                      Example
                                 Player 2
                  L                  C      R
           T      5, -1           11, 3     0,0
Player 1
           B      6, 4             0, 2     2,0
 Players                  1, 2
 Strategy sets            S1={T,B}           S2={L,C,R}
 Payoffs                  U1(T,C) = 11       U2(T,C) = 3
                 NOTE: This game is not symmetric
                                                           7
           Game Analysis
• How is the game going to be played?
• Does player 1 have a dominated strategy?
• Does player 2 have a dominated strategy?
• For a strategy to be dominated, we need
  another strategy for the same player that does
  always better (in terms of payoffs)
                                                   8
Contents
1.   Formal Definitions/Notations
2.   Strict versus Weak Dominance
3.   Iterative Deletion of Dominated Strategy
4.   Median Voter Theorem
5.   Model Simplification for Engineering
     Application: Examples
                                                9
Definition: Strict dominance
We say player i’s strategy si’ is strictly dominated by
player i’s strategy si if:
                ui(si, s-i) > ui(si’, s-i) for all s-i
No matter what other people do, by choosing si instead of
si’, player i will always obtain a higher payoff.
                                                          10
                   “Hannibal” game
• An invader is thinking about invading a country, and there are 2 ways
  through which he can lead his army.
• You are the defender of this country and you have to decide which of
  these ways you choose to defend: you can only defend one of these
  routes.
• One route is a hard pass: if the invader chooses this route he will lose
  one battalion of his army (over the mountains).
• If the invader meets your army, whatever route he chooses, he will lose
  a battalion
                                                             11
                          “Hannibal” game
                                      Attacker
                                  e              h
                             E   1, 1        1, 1
                    Defender H   0, 2        2, 0
Strategies
1.   e, E = Easy Path ;
2.   h,H = Hard Path
Payoffs:
1. Attacker: Number of battalions in your country
2. Defender: Number of attacker’s lost battalions
                                                     12
                 “Hannibal” game
• You’re the defender: what would you do?
• Is it true that defending the easy route dominates defending
  the hard one?
• You’re the attacker: what would you do?
• Now, what the defender should do, if he would put himself in
  the attacker shoes?
                                                        13
     Definition: Weak dominance
     We say player i’s strategy si’ is weakly dominated by player
     i’s strategy si if:
                        ui(si, s-i) ≥ ui(si’, s-i) for all s-i
                      ui(si, s-i) > ui(si’, s-i) for some s-i
No matter what other people do, by choosing si instead of si’,
player i will always do at least as well, and in some cases
she does strictly better.
It turns out that, historically, Hannibal chose H!
                                                                 14
Contents
1.   Formal Definitions/Notations
2.   Strict versus Weak Dominance
3.   Iterative Deletion of Dominated Strategy
4.   Median Voter Theorem
5.   Model Simplification for Engineering
     Application: Examples
                                                15
        Pick a Number Game
  Without showing your neighbor what you’re doing, write down an
  integer number between 1 and 100. I will calculate the average
  number chosen in the class.The winner in this game is the person
  whose number is closest to two-thirds (2/3) of the average in the
  class.The winner will win 10 $ minus the difference in cents
  between her choice and that two-thirds of the average.
Example: 3 students                               1-10: 3
                                                  11-20: 4
Numbers: 25, 5, 60                                21-30: 12
Total: 90, Average: 30, 2/3*average: 20           31-40: 14
                                                  41-50: 6
25 wins: 10 $ –.01 * 5 = 9.95 $                   51-60: 1
                                                  61-70: 0
                                                  71-80: 1
                                                  81-90: 0
                                                  91-100: 0
                                                                      16
        What did you do?
• What we know:
 – Do not choose a strictly dominated strategy
 – Also, do not choose a weakly dominated strategy
 – You should put yourself in others’ shoes, try to
   figure out what they are going to play, and respond
   appropriately
                                                         17
                First Clue!
• A possible assumption:
 – People chose numbers uniformly at random
 ➔The average is 50
 ➔2/3 * average = 33.3
• What’s wrong with this reasoning?
         IUT students are not rand()!
                                              18
         Dominated Strategy?
• Let’s try to find out whether there are dominated
  strategies
• If everyone would chose 100, then the winning number
  would be 67
➔ Numbers bigger than 67 are weakly dominated by 67
➔ Rationality tells not to choose numbers bigger than 67
                                                      19
                   New Game!
• So now we’ve eliminated dominated strategies, it’s like a
  new game played over the set [1, …, 67]
• Once you figured out that nobody is going to choose a
  number above 67, the conclusion is
Also strategies above 45 are ruled out
• This means:
 1.   Rationality
 2.   Knowledge that others are rational as well
• Note:
They are weakly dominated, only once we delete 68-100
                                                          20
         Iterative Deletion
• Eventually, we can show that also strategies
  above 30 are weakly dominated, once we
  delete previously dominated strategies
• We can go on with this line of reasoning and
  end up with the conclusion that:
• 1 was the winning strategy!
                                                 21
       Common Knowledge
• Common knowledge: you know that
  others know that others know … and so on
  that rationality is underlying all players’ choices
                                                    22
       Theory vs. Practice
• Q: Why was it that 1 wasn’t the winning
  answer?
• A: We need a strong assumption, that is that
  all players are rational and they know that
  everybody else’s rational as well
                                                 23
               Common Knowledge
                                          Rationality
                       Rationality and Knowledge of Other’s Rationality
Rationality, Knowledge of Other’s Rationality, and Knowledge of Knowledge of Rationality (know
                                that you know that I know …. )
   Rationality, Knowledge of Other’s Rationality, Knowledge of Knowledge of Rationality, and
                     Knowledge of knowledge of knowledge of Rationality
                                               .
                                               .
                                               .
                                               .
                                                                                         24
      How did you play?
– 40 Players
–Average number was: 30.85
–Winning number is closest to the
 2/3 X Average = 20.56
– Winner= 21: No one
–Then 20: only one person
                                    25
                 Summary
• We’ve explored a bit the idea of deleting
  dominated strategies
 – Look at a game
 – Figure out which strategies are dominated
 – Delete them
 – Look at the game again
 – Look at which strategies are dominated now
 – … and so on …
                                                26
                Summary
• Iterative deletion of dominated
  strategies seems a powerful idea, but it’s
  also dangerous if you take it literally
• In some games, iterative deletion converges to
  a single choice, in others it may not (we’ll see
  shortly an example)
• HINT: try to identify all dominated strategies
  at once before you delete, this may save you
  some rounds…
                                                     27
      Let us play
the same Game, again!
                    28
Contents
1.   Formal Definitions/Notations
2.   Strict versus Weak Dominance
3.   Iterative Deletion of Dominated Strategy
4.   Median Voter Theorem
5.   Model Simplification for Engineering
     Application: Examples
                                                29
       Election Game Model
• 2 candidates
• Choosing their political positions on a
  spectrum
• Assume the spectrum has 10 positions
       1       2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9      10
   LEFT WING                                   RIGHT WING
                                                            30
          Election Game Model
• There are 10% of the voters at each of these
  positions:
 – Voters are uniformly distributed
• Voters will eventually vote for the closest
  candidate (i.e., for the candidate whose
  position is closest to their own)
• We break ties by splitting votes equally
 Votes:   10% 10%     10% 10%   10%   10%   10% 10%   10% 10%
          1       2   3   4     5     6     7   8     9      10
      LEFT WING                                           RIGHT WING
                                                                       31
  Election Game Strategies
• We assume payoffs follow the idea that the
  candidates aim to maximize their share of
  vote (Win the Election)
• Are there any dominated strategies here?
                                               32
              Election Game
     Analysis of Dominated Strategy
• Is position 1 dominated? If so, what dominates it? Let’s test, e.g.
  how is 1 vs. 2
        s-i       1’s Payoff for si=1           1’s Payoff for si=2
       Vs. 1        u1(1,1) = 50 %      <         u1(2,1) = 90%
       Vs. 2        u1(1,2) = 10 %      <         u1(2,2) = 50%
       Vs. 3        u1(1,3) = 15 %      <         u1(2,3) = 20%
       Vs. 4        u1(1,4) = 20 %      <         u1(2,4) = 25%
        …                 …             …               ….
• Do you see a pattern coming up here?
➔We conclude that 2 strictly dominates 1
• We’re not saying that 2 wins over 1
                                                                      33
           Election Game
  Analysis of Dominated Strategy
• Using a similar argument, we have that:
➔9 strictly dominates 10
• Is there anything else dominated here?
• What about 2 being dominated by 3?
     Vs. 1    U1(2,1) = 90 %   >      U1(3,1) = 85%
                                                      34
           Election Game
  Analysis of Dominated Strategy
• Even though 2 is not a dominated strategy, if
  we do the process of iterative deletion and
  delete dominated strategies (1 and 9)…
• Would 3 dominate 2?
     Vs. 2    u1(2,2) = 50 %   <      u1(3,2) = 80%
     Vs. 3    u1(2,3) = 20 %   <      u1(3,3) = 50%
     Vs. 4    u1(2,4) = 25 %   <      u1(3,4) = 30%
     Vs. 5    U1(2,5) = 30 %   <      u1(3,5) = 35%
      …             …          …            ….
                                                      35
           Election Game
  Analysis of Dominated Strategy
• Strategies 2 and 8 are not dominated
➔They are dominated once we realize that
  strategies 1 and 10 won’t be chosen
• If we continued the exercise, where would we
  get?
                                                 36
      Election Game Result
• It turns out that 5 and 6 are not dominated
• What’s the prediction that game theory suggests
  here?
➔ Candidates will be squeezed towards the center,
  they’re going to choose positions very close to each
  other
     In political science this is called the
        Median Voter Theorem
                                                     37
Election Game: Similar Examples
• The same model has applications in economics as
  well (and computer science): product
  placement
• Example: Placing Gas Stations (abroad)
  or banks (here!)
 – Spread themselves evenly out over the town
 – On every road
• As we all know, this doesn’t happen:
  All gas stations tend to crowd into the same
  corners, all the fast foods crowd as well, … you
  name it
                                                     38
Contents
1.   Formal Definitions/Notations
2.   Strict versus Weak Dominance
3.   Iterative Deletion of Dominated Strategy
4.   Median Voter Theorem
5.   Model Simplification for Engineering
     Application: Examples
                                                39
      Model Simplification
• We have been using a model of a real-world
  situation, and tried to predict the outcome
  using game theory
• What is missing? Is there anything wrong with
  the model?
                                                  40
Simplification in Median Voter
•   Voters are not evenly distributed
•   Some people do not vote
•   There may be more than 2 candidates
•   There may be higher “dimensions” to the
    problem
                                              41
        Model Simplification
• So if we’re missing so many things, our model is
  useless, and in general modeling (as an abstraction
  effort) is useless!!
• No: first, analyze a problem with simplifying
  assumptions, then relax them and see what happens
• E.g.: would a different voters distribution change the
  result?
                                                        42
         Model Simplification:
         Engineering Approach
• We basically make lots of abstractions in make
  game theoretical models for our engineering
  problems
• Not a bad idea to start with abstraction, but
  you must be careful about what you design
                                                   43
     George Edward Pelham Box
            (1919-2013)
• Remember that all models are wrong; the
  practical question is how wrong do they have
  to be to not be useful.
• Essentially, all models are wrong, but
  some are useful.
                                                 44
The Joint Packet Forwarding Game
                                          ?                ?
     Source                    Blue            Green               Dest
                                         Green
• Reward for packet reaching          Blue     Forward         Drop
the destination: 1
• Cost of packet forwarding:
  c (0 < c << 1)
                                 Forward      (1-c, 1-c)       (-c, 0)
                                  Drop          (0, 0)         (0, 0)
                    No strictly dominated strategies !
                                                                          45
                          Weak dominance
Weak dominance: strictly better strategy for at least one opponent strategy
          Strategy si is weakly dominates strategy s’i if:
                      ui ( si , s− i ) ≥ ui ( si' , s− i ), ∀s− i ∈ S − i
          with strict inequality for at least one s-i
                                              ?                         ?
     Source                  Blue                       Green                   Dest
                                         Green
                                     Blue             Forward               Drop
Iterative weak dominance         Forward             (1-c, 1-c)             (-c, 0)
 BUT                                Drop               (0, 0)               (0, 0)
 The result of the iterative weak dominance
 is not unique in general !
                                                                                       46
                     Weak Dominance in
                   Threshold Cryptography
S = f (0) is the secret, and each Si is calculated   Each party should receive the other two secret
           using a polynomial function                       shares to calculate the secret.
       J. Halpern and V. Teague, ”Rational secret sharing and multiparty computation”
       In Proceedings of the 36th Annual ACM Symposium on Theory of Computing, 2004
                                                                                            47
           Weak Dominance in
         Threshold Cryptography
• The parties are rational and that they cooperate if it is
  in their interest to share a part of the secret (it
  increases its payoff)
• Given the rationality assumption:
      “Rational parties will not broadcast their shares”
• Not sending the share (Defect) is a weakly dominating
  strategy in the game between the parties
• Results make sense if we consider that the parties have
  common knowledge about the running time of the
  protocol
                                                      48