Emkay Envi Oct 24
Emkay Envi Oct 24
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Investment Philosophy
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E-Qual Framework : Scoring Governance from an ESG perspective
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E-Qual Model: Management Integrity
7.50%
7.50%
40%
15%
30%
2.50%
Promoter Holding 7.50% 2.50% 7.50%
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Red Flags
If promoter No
holding pledged investor
above 70% communication Investment in
non-related
businesses, which is
more than 50% of
net worth
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Risk-Reward Matrix based on the E-Qual module
Base
BASE I BASE II BASE III BASE IV BASE V
E-QUAL 70%-85%
SCORE BASE III + BASE IV + BASE V +
BASE I + Quality Risk BASE II + Quality
50% - 70% Premium Risk Premium
Quality Risk Quality Risk Quality Risk
Premium Premium Premium
Below
DO NOT INVEST DO NOT INVEST DO NOT INVEST DO NOT INVEST DO NOT INVEST
50%
BASE IV = BASE V =
BASE I = BASE II = BASE III = Base III + Base IV +
Risk Free Rate + Equity Base I + Smaller Base II + Smaller Smaller Size Smaller Size
Risk Premium Size Premium Size Premium Premium Premium
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India’s emergence as a manufacturing powerhouse
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Some quotes for global or large Indian company CEOs about India manufacturing
C&W global mfg risk index 2022 India top 10 manufacturing FDI sectors
70 63 18.5%
60 17.9% 18.0%
17.5%
50 17.3%
17.0%
40 35 34 16.5%
30 16.0%
15.5%
20
15.0%
10 14.6% 14.5%
0 14.0%
2007-12 2012-17 2017-22
So, India Is an important market with The company is expanding all its India has many opportunities to offer,
investments in infrastructure, and businesses, including glass, and our growth along with an increase
Siemens is also investing. it’s one of construction chemicals and ceramics. in supplier partnerships demonstrates
our largest set-ups. In the past five Saint-Gobain will be inaugurating its our efforts to progress towards an
years, we spent €1 billion on capex in world’s biggest flat glass factory at Aatmanirbhar Bharat.
India. And this is investing for the Bhiwadi in Rajasthan. DavidSchulte, Boeing's Managing
future. B Santhanam, CEO, Asia Pacific and Director of Marketing for India, South
Matthias Rebellius, Member of the India region, Saint-Gobain East Asia, and Asia Pacific.
Managing Board at Siemens AG
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Source: C&W – Cushman and Wakefiled, RBI
Nurturing the nucleus of industrial revival and growth
2 Sense of déjà vu
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Nursing back to health – THE MANUFACTURER
• FY21-22 most attractive in terms of cash return on capital employed
» Over past few years, due to various events like Demonetisation, GST and COVID, reported
ROCEs have suffered a lot
» However, cash ROCEs have improved to almost 20%+ driven by tighter working capital cycles
» The difference between Cash ROCE and comparable investment at one of the highest
» Attractiveness of cash returns coupled with robust capacity utilisation (CU) has put
manufacturers on front foot
Best cash returns vs bank deposits Capacity utilisation reaching previous peak
18.0% 12.0% 90.0
CROCI Difference >1 year avg deposit rate CU reported Seasonally adjusted CU
16.0% 11.0% 85.0
14.0% 80.0
10.0%
12.0% 75.0
9.0%
10.0% 70.0
8.0%
8.0% 65.0
7.0% 60.0
6.0%
4.0% 6.0% 55.0
Q4F19
Q2F09
Q4F09
Q4F10
Q2F11
Q4F11
Q2F12
Q4F12
Q2F13
Q4F13
Q2F14
Q4F14
Q2F15
Q4F15
Q2F16
Q4F16
Q2F17
Q4F17
Q2F18
Q4F18
Q2F19
Q2F20
Q4F20
Q2F21
Q4F21
Q2F22
Q4F22
Q2F23
Q4F23
Q2F24
Q4F24
2006/07
2013/14
2020/21
2005/06
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2021/22
2022/23
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Source: RBI, EIML, Ace Equity
Improvement in balance sheet and lower tax outgo
Debt/Equity (BSE500*)
• Tax outgo at cash flow level lowest in years 1.90
1.70
• Effective balance sheet management 1.50
1.30
» Working capital change as % of EBIDTA
1.10
turned positive in FY21
0.90
» Debt/Equity ratios lowest in many years 0.70
0.50
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23
30.0% 5.0%
28.95%
0.0%
28.0%
26.51%
-5.0%
26.0%
-10.0%
24.0% 23.14%
22.10% -15.0%
22.0% 20.60% -20.0%
20.0%
-25.0%
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23
-30.0%
BSE500 Ex BFSI
-35.0%
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Source: EIML, Ace Equity *Ex BFSI ** EX BFSI and Crude oil
Resulting in buoyancy and adding capacities
» The spends on Capex by 328 companies involved in manufacturing sector in BSE500 Index has
been rising consistently
» As per the project sanctions data by RBI, total capex is now at all time high, surpassing FY10 peak
Half yearly spends on Capex (Rs bn) Project funding sanctioned (Rs bn)
3,500 6,000
3,300
5,000
3,100
2,900 4,000
2,700
2,500 3,000
2,300
2,000
2,100
1,900 1,000
1,700
1,500 0
FY07
FY23
FY06
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY24
H1FY21 H2FY21 H1FY22 H2FY22 H1FY23 H2FY23 H1FY24 H2FY24
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Source: RBI, Ministries, EIML
China + 1 = Is it here to stay?
Industries
Electronics
Machinery
Ancillaries
Fluorine
India total
Navin
exports
6.30
Aarti
Auto
60.00 6.20
CY18 CY19 CY20 CY21 CY22 CY23*
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Source: Bloomberg, CMIE, Ace Equity
From course correction to supporting role – THE Government
1 Sense of deja vu
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Sense of Déjà vu – 2003-06
• Structural changes in 2018-21 reminiscent of lot of things that happened prior to
2003-06 boom
Viz. Corporate tax rate, clean up of balance sheets, declining cost of borrowing
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Source: EIML
Policy support from THE GOVERNMENT
30000
White Goods,
25000
2.6% Asset turnover = 3.3x
Solar PV, 1.9%
20000
Telecom, 5.1%
EV Battery, 7.5%
15000
Textile, 4.4% Food, 4.5%
Speciality Steel, 10000
IT Hardware, Auto & Comp,
2.6% 2.1% 10.8%
5000 2410
39600
0
Capex Incremental Revenues over 5-Years
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Source: Ministry Notifications, EIML
Return of the prodigal son-THE CONSUMER
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Return of the prodigal son – THE CONSUMER
• Indian consumer missing in action for almost 5 years for multiple reasons
» Demonetisation, GST, COVID
» Lack of inflation
• Growth in per capita GDP picked up in FY22
» Per capital GDP higher than F20 after a dip
• BY FY27, lot of discretionary goods may be within reach of lot more Indians
3-year rolling CAGR (%) BSE500 Companies salary cost growth (%)
16.0% 20.0%
Per capita GDP Per capita PFCE 18.0%
14.0% 16.0%
14.0%
12.0% 12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
10.0%
6.0%
4.0%
8.0%
2.0%
0.0%
6.0%
4.0%
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
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Source: CMIE, EIML, PFCE: Private Final Consumption Expenditure
Assuming 12% growth in Per Capita GDP and 4% annual inflation
Coming within the reach
X times per capita income
4x % of per capita income
55%
39%
2x
1x 25%
27%
F22 FY27
FY22 FY27
Assuming 12% growth in Per Capita GDP and 4% annual inflation. Current PCGDP ~$2100, growing to ~$3700 in 5 yrs
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Source: CMIE, EIML, PFCE: Private Final Consumption Expenditure
Key Risks
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Risk Mitigation
» Tightening of balance sheets by global central banks » Invest in companies which are low D/E or net
may pose risk to liquidity also cash
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NDTL – Net Demand And Time Liabilities, CRR – cash reserve ratio *53 cos till date
About ENVI
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About Emkay New Vitalised India (ENVI) Strategy
• Export opportunities
• Growth in services allied to industrial activities
• Flexicap strategy
• Market cap focus – across all categories, large, mid and small
• Stock weights to be flexible
• Number of stocks in portfolio – 15-20
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Why should services have all the fun?
• Broad indices are largely services oriented Nifty 50 weights Nifty 500 weights
3.00%
• India saw very low inflation at WPI level between FY15- 1.00%
21 impacting value sales
-1.00% FY07-12 FY12-17 FY17-22 FY23
Emkay Wealth India Manufacturing Smallcase Live Data Comparison (based to 100 as on 16-Mar-21
160
India Manufacturing Smallcase S&P BSE India Manufacturing Index NIFTY 500
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
Jul/21
Apr/21
Jun/21
Nov/21
Apr/22
Aug/21
Mar/21
Dec/21
Feb/22
Mar/22
Oct/21
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Disclaimer: Data pertain to product of Emkay Wealth Managers (group company) and not EIML
Source: Smallcase factsheet * As on April 29, 2022
ENVI stock picking record in Industrial sector
5000.0
4000.0
3500.0
3000.0
2500.0 2.4x
2000.0
1779.8
1661.0
1500.0
3.4x
1000.0
574.7
490.2 2.5x 496.8 4.5x
500.0
199.7
127.7
Jul 22 Jun 22 Jun 22 Jun 22
0.0
KIRLOSKAR PNEUMATIC CIE AUTOMOTIVE INDIA LIMITED THE SUPREME INDUSTRIES ELECON ENGINEERING COMPANY
COMPANY LIMITED LIMITED LIMITED
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*Buy price for Elecon Eng. is on ex-split basis
Portfolio details
4.3%
5.0%
5.6%
27.6% Top Holdings Weight
5.9%
KIRLOSKAR PNEUMATIC CO.LTD 8.2%
Auto & Auto Ancillaries Capital Goods IGARASHI MOTORS INDIA LTD 6.3%
Pharmaceuticals Cement
Infrastructure Specialty Chemicals
Plastic products
5.1%
16.5%
Particulars ENVI
Company Size Flexi - Cap
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*As on 31st Oct 2024
Performance as on 31st Oct 2024
Emkay ENVI TWRR BSE 500 TRI
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y Since Inception Total Returns
-20.0 (CAGR)
Since
Total
ENVI 1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y Inception
Returns
(CAGR)
BSE 500 TRI -6.4 -3.6 8.7 35.9 22.1 25.7 72.5
EMKAY ENVI 3.09 9.33 4.30 -3.31 25.25 6.87 7.13 -0.84 19.61 6.19 -2.07 34.01
S&P BSE 500
India TRI -0.11 11.32 4.27 -5.66 13.18 5.49 12.35 4.49 11.66 7.65 -6.45 25.68
* In terms of Q-o-Q returns since inception, ENVI has outperformed the benchmark 7 out of 11 times
• 1 Crore invested in ENVI strategy since inception has grown to 2.01 Crores by 31st Oct 2024.
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8 LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD. 23% 33% 24.0% 3,624 489,526 0.0%
10 ELECON ENG. CO. LTD 31% 70% 13.4% 575 12,983 59.3%
11 CCL PRODUCTS (I) LTD 10% 15% 32.2% 678 8,912 46.1%
13 IGARASHI MOTORS INDIA LTD 26% 36% 193.2% 725 2,308 75.0%
19 SYRMA SGS TECHNOLOGY LTD. -1% 33% 48.7% 518 8,987 46.9%
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Strategy Fund Manager and Business Team
Kashyap Javeri is a fund manager with more than a decade of experience in company and sector research. He brings exceptional
insights into stocks and economy. Prior to joining Emkay Investment Managers, he was a rated BFSI analyst in Emkay Institutional
Equities for eight years and also worked with Sharekhan Ltd as midcap analyst. Kashyap brings with him immense in-depth
knowledge on not only variety of manufacturing and services sectors but also on banking and economics.
Nagesh has more than 20 years of experience in Financial Asset Management Industry. Nagesh is a seasoned professional with
extensive experience in the financial services industry. As the National Sales Head at EIML, he plays a pivotal role in driving sales
strategies and fostering key client relationships.
Before joining EIML Nagesh held several senior leadership roles at prominent financial institutions, demonstrating his expertise in
sales management and strategic planning, including ASK investment Managers, ENAM Asset Management, ING Investment
Management, and Standard Chartered Bank.
7-member investment and research team with a collective experience of ~ 100 + years
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Contact Us
Emkay Investment Managers Ltd
Paragon Centre,C-06,2nd Floor,Pandurang Budhkar Marg, Opp. Birla Centurion Worli India-
400013
Email: pmsoperations@emkayim.com
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Disclaimer
Emkay Investment Managers Limited (“Emkay”) is registered as a Portfolio Manager with SEBI under SEBI (Portfolio Managers) Regulations, 2020 as amended from time to time and the
Circulars and Guidelines issued there under from time to time vide SEBI Reg. No.: INP000004458.
Emkay is also the Investment Manager to Emkay Emerging Stars Trust, a SEBI registered Category III AIF vide SEBI Reg. No.: IN/AIF3/17-18/0375 dated October 04, 2017 under SEBI
(Alternative Investment Fund) Regulations, 2012 as amended from time to time and the Circulars and Guidelines issued there under from time to time collectively referred as the SEBI
Registered Intermediary.
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