ICICI Direct 11 Oct
ICICI Direct 11 Oct
Strong Q2 numbers…
About the stock: Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) is one of the leading IT service Particulars
Result Update
providers with a presence in BFSI, communication, manufacturing, retail & hi tech. P articular Amount
Consistent organic revenue growth and industry leading margins (>25%) Market Capitalization (| Crore) 11,41,554.0
Total Debt (| Crore) 7,818.0
Stable management, robust return ratios (>RoCE 40%) & payouts (~70%) Cash and equivalents (| Crore) 48,483.0
EV (| Crore) 11,10,860.0
Sep-2022
Jun-2020
Jun-2021
May-2022
Jan-2022
Feb-2020
Feb-2021
Oct-2019
Oct-2020
Oct-2021
Key triggers for future price performance:
New organisation structure, which is aimed at increasing customer Nifty (L.H.S) Price (R.H.S)
Increase in outsourcing in Europe, vendor consolidation and deal pipeline Recent event & key risks
leading to rupee revenue CAGR of 9.4% over FY22-25E
Declared interim dividend of | 8
We expect margins to improve from FY23 onwards due to utilisation per share
improvement, moderation of sub-contractor costs. We build in margin
Key Risk: i) Higher-than-
expansion of 130 bps over FY23-25E
expected attrition, ii)
Double-digit return ratios, strong cash generation and healthy payout Deteriorating TCV
Research Analyst
Sameer Pardikar
Alternate Stock Idea: Besides TCS, in our IT coverage we also like Infosys. sameer.pardikar@icicisecurities.com
Key beneficiary of improved digital demand, industry leading revenue Sujay Chavan
growth and healthy capital allocation prompt us to be positive sujay.chavan @icicisecurities.com
LTM attrition continued to inch up to 21.5% (up from 19.7% in the previous
quarter). The management in Q1FY23 earnings call had indicated that LTM
attrition is likely to be at an elevated level in H2 and is expected to moderate
in H2. In continuance of its commentary, the company mentioned that LTM
attrition in Q2 could be at a peak and is expected to moderate from here
onwards. The management also indicated it is also a function of job market
demand supply mismatch, which is now cooling off for tech talent
The company added 9,840 net associates in Q2, taking the total to 616,171.
TCS also indicated that it hired around 20,000 freshers in Q2
On a reported basis, TCV for the quarter was at US$8.1 bn, which was
largely constant for two consecutive quarters (it reported US$8.2 bn TCV in
Q1). The company continued to maintain that steady state deal win number
for the quarter could be in the range of US$7-9 bn in the foreseeable future.
TCS also indicated that the deal win number was also impacted by currency
movement
EBIT margin for the quarter was up 90 bps QoQ at 24%. There was a positive
impact of currency (rupee depreciation against dollar) as well as utilisation
improvement. Margin headwinds for the quarter were normalisation of
travelling and facility expenses as well as increase in backfilling costs due
to high LTM attrition. The company maintained its earlier guidance of exit
margins of 25% in Q4FY23
TCS indicated that it has hired 35,000 freshers in H1FY23 (15,000 in Q1 and
20,000 in Q2) and maintained guidance of 40,000 fresher additions in FY23,
which implies that pace of fresher additions is likely to come down in H2.
The company also indicated that fresher hiring is being done keeping an eye
on long term demand outlook and there could be some variation in quarterly
trends. TCS clarified that it is honouring all fresher’s offers. It has also
indicated that 70% of employees have been paid 100% variable payout
while rest 30% of employees would be paid on the basis of performance
TCS indicated that demand for the US market continued to robust, which is
a function of continued strong deal execution. It also indicated that near
term outlook also looks strong with healthy TCV of US$2 bn+ for the market.
The company indicated that it has not picked up any sign of growth
moderation in the region as well as change in spending pattern across
clients. TCS is also not seeing any deal cancellation or delay in the project
execution in the region. The company expects normal seasonality in the US
market for the December quarter
EBIT Margin (%) 24.5 24.2 -30 bps 25.0 25.1 10 bps 25.3 We build in margin expansion from FY23 onwards
Quarterly highlights
Exhibit 3: Dollar growth hit by cross currency headwinds Exhibit 4: CC YoY revenue growth has been steady
25.0 1.2 20.0
21.6 16.4 15.5 15.4 14.3 15.5 15.4
20.0 1.0 15.0
16.8
15.0 14.4 0.8
11.8 10.0
10.0 10.0 10.2 0.6
8.6
5.0
5.0 0.4 0.4 5.9
(1.7) 2.1 -
- 0.2 (3.2)
(5.0) - (5.0)
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Dollar revenue YoY growth (%) CC YoY revenue growth (%)
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 5: Steady growth in North America market Exhibit 6: UK & Continental Europe growth pick up in Q2
25.0 25.0
18.0 18.7 19.1 20.0
20.0 17.4 17.6
15.8 15.0
15.0
10.0
11.7
13.0
12.6
14.1
14.8
19.7
16.3
13.5
15.6
17.5
12.7
10.1
12.1
10.0 5.9
3.7
3.6
1.0
5.0
5.0 -
(0.2)
(5.0)
(8.1)
(1.6)
-
(5.0) (3.0) (10.0)
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
North America CC YoY growth (%) CC YoY growth (%) - Continental Europe CC YoY growth (%) - UK
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 7: BFSI revenue remains stable Exhibit 8: Retail revenues continue to be strong
25.0 30.0
21.7 22.1 25.1
20.0 19.3 25.0 20.4
18.4 22.9
17.9 20.0
15.0 13.9
17.0 15.0
13.3 13.1
10.0 12.9 10.0
5.0 (0.9)
5.0 -
2.4 (5.7)
- (5.0)
(10.0) (5.1)
(5.0) (1.1)
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q1FY23
BFSI revenue CC YoY growth (%) Retail & CPG revenue CC YoY growth (%)
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 9: Employee additions moderating Exhibit 10: LTM attrition at elevated level
40.0 25.0 21.5
35.0 19.7
30.0 20.0 17.4
25.0 15.3
20.0 15.0 11.9
15.0 8.9 8.6
10.0
15.7
10.0 7.6 7.2
35.2
14.1
19.4
20.4
19.7
28.2
9.9
9.8
5.0
- 5.0
(5.0)
Q2FY21 (5.0)
(10.0) -
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Employee addition ('000) LTM Attrition - IT Services(%)
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 11: Sub-contracting costs largely stable Exhibit 12: Travel cost continues to inch up
12.0 2.2
9.5 10.0 10.0 2.1 2.1
8.9 8.9 9.2 2.0
10.0 8.6
7.6 7.7 1.8 1.8
8.0 1.6
1.4
6.0
1.2 1.2
4.0 1.0 1.0 1.1
0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8
2.0 0.7 0.7
0.6 0.6 0.6
- 0.4
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Sub contracting cost as % of Revenue Travel cost as % of Revenue
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 13: Employee costs cool off after Q1 wage hike Exhibit 14: Margins on up move
58.0 57.7 57.5 28.0
26.6 26.8
56.5 56.5 56.3 27.0 26.2
57.0 25.5 25.6
56.0 56.1 26.0 25.0 25.1 25.0 25.0
55.8 55.6
56.0 55.2 25.0
55.1 24.0 24.0
23.6
55.0 24.0 23.1
54.3 54.1 23.0
54.0
22.0
53.0 21.0
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 15: TCV remains steady Exhibit 16: TCV trend for BFSI
11.3
12.0 4.5 3.9
8.9 9.2 4.0
10.0 8.6 8.1 7.6 7.6 8.2 8.1 3.2
3.5 2.9
8.0 6.4 6.0 6.9 6.8 3.0 2.6 2.6
2.1 2.2 2.1 2.3
2.5
6.0 1.7
2.0
4.0 1.5
1.0
2.0
0.5
- -
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
TCV (US$bn) TCV (US$bn) -BFSI
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 17: TCV trend for retail Exhibit 18: TCV trend for North America
3.0 2.6 7.0 6.1
2.5 6.0
5.0 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.3
2.0 1.6 4.0 4.0 3.9
1.4 1.5 4.0 3.3 3.2
1.5 1.2 1.2
0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 3.0
1.0 2.0
0.5 1.0
- -
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
TCV (US$bn) -Retail TCV (US$bn) -North America
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 19: Adds five clients in US$100 mn+ on YoY basis Exhibit 20: Client addition trend
300 1,400
250 1,200
1,000
200
800
150
600
100
400
1,118
1,138
1,182
1,175
1,196
1,210
50
120
124
124
586
417
619
426
638
446
650
455
241
105
247
114
255
118
268
272
283
405
609
439
650
200
50
54
58
58
59
59
- -
Q1FY22 Q2FY22 Q3FY22 Q4FY22 Q1FY23 Q2FY23 Q1FY22 Q2FY22 Q3FY22 Q4FY22 Q1FY23 Q2FY23
US$ 20M+ Clients US$ 50M+ Clients US$ 100M+ Clients US$ 1M+ Clients US$ 5M+ Clients US$ 10M+ Clients
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Peer comparison
Exhibit 21: Peer Comparison
EPS (|) P/E RoCE (x) RoE(x)
Company Name CMP TP (|) Rating Mcap (|) FY22 FY23E FY24E FY22 FY23E FY24E FY22 FY23E FY24E FY22 FY23E FY24E
HCL Tech (HCLTEC) 962 1,050 HOLD 2,61,055 49.8 50.5 55.2 19.3 19.1 17.4 24.2 24.8 26.0 21.8 21.0 21.9
Infosys (INFTEC) 1,463 1,760 BUY 6,15,575 52.1 58.1 67.5 28.1 25.2 21.7 36.0 35.0 37.7 29.2 29.1 31.1
TCS (TCS) 3,119 3,630 BUY 11,41,258 104.7 115.1 130.4 29.8 27.1 23.9 51.4 49.2 48.7 43.0 41.9 41.0
Tech M (TECMAH) 1,030 1,170 BUY 1,00,200 63.1 66.2 77.9 16.3 15.6 13.2 22.5 21.8 22.7 20.7 19.4 20.3
Wipro (WIPRO) 411 460 HOLD 2,25,281 22.3 23.3 27.1 18.5 17.7 15.2 18.8 18.9 21.0 19.6 18.7 20.8
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Financial summary
Exhibit 22: Profit and loss statement | crore Exhibit 23: Cash flow statement | crore
(Year-end March) FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E (Year-end March) FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
Total operating Income 1,91,754 2,18,226 2,35,293 2,51,410 Profit before Tax 51,687 56,837 63,735 68,284
Growth (%) 16.8 13.8 7.8 6.8 Add: Depreciation 4,604 5,237 5,176 5,531
COGS (employee expenses) 1,11,053 1,29,626 1,37,882 1,47,075 (Inc)/dec in Current Assets 1,092 -2,505 -4,891 -4,618
S,G&A expenses 27,644 30,552 33,176 35,197 Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions 8,124 3,521 3,641 3,438
Total Operating Expenditure 1,38,697 1,60,178 1,71,058 1,82,273 Taxes paid -13,238 -14,380 -15,934 -17,071
EBITDA 53,057 58,048 64,235 69,138 CF from operating activities 49,332 45,148 47,714 51,550
Growth (%) 14.0 9.4 10.7 7.6 (Inc)/dec in Investments -1,100 -35 -358 -338
Depreciation 4,604 5,237 5,176 5,531 (Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets -3,835 -4,365 -4,706 -5,028
Other Income less interest 3,234 4,026 4,677 4,677 Others 2,937 3,563 4,014 4,014
PBT 51,687 56,837 63,735 68,284 CF from investing activities -1,998 -836 -1,050 -1,353
Total Tax 13,238 14,380 15,934 17,071 Inc/(dec) in loan funds 0 0 0 0
Minority Interest 122 122 122 122 Dividend paid & dividend tax -34,123 -30,587 -32,256 -34,891
Others -1,498 0 0 0
PAT 38,327 42,335 47,680 51,091 CF from financing activities -35,621 -30,587 -32,256 -34,891
Growth (%) 18.2 10.5 12.6 7.2 Net Cash flow 11,713 13,724 14,408 15,306
EPS (|) 104.7 115.7 130.3 139.6 Exchange difference 0 0 0 0
PAT 38,327 42,335 47,680 51,091 Opening Cash 7,705 21,042 34,766 49,174
EPS - Reported (|) 104.7 115.7 130.3 139.6 Closing cash and Bank 21,042 34,766 49,174 64,480 eses
es
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 24: Balance sheet | crore Exhibit 25: Key ratios | crore
(Year-end March) FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E (Year-end March) FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
Liabilities Per share data (|)
Equity Capital 366 366 366 366 Adjusted EPS (Diluted) 104.7 115.7 130.3 139.6
Reserve and Surplus 88,773 1,00,521 1,15,944 1,32,144 BV per share 243.5 275.6 317.8 362.0
Share Premium 0 0 0 0 DPS 93.3 83.6 88.2 95.4
Total Shareholders funds 89,139 1,00,887 1,16,310 1,32,510 Cash Per Share 49.8 95.0 134.4 176.2
Total debt 7,818 10,229 10,364 10,490 Operating Ratios (%)
Other liabilities & Provisions 2,359 2,678 2,755 2,829 EBIT margins 25.3 24.2 25.1 25.3
Deferred tax liability(net) 590 590 590 590 PBT Margins 27.0 26.0 27.1 27.2
Minority Interest / Others 707 829 951 1,073 PAT Margin 20.0 19.4 20.3 20.3
Total Liabilities 1,00,613 1,15,213 1,30,970 1,47,492 Debtor days 65 67 67 67
Creditor days 15 17 17 17
Assets Return Ratios (%)
Net assets & CWIP 20,716 19,167 18,696 18,193 RoE 43.0 42.0 41.0 38.6
Goodwill 1,787 1,787 1,787 1,787 RoCE 51.4 49.3 48.7 46.3
Other non current assets 10,501 10,536 10,894 11,233 RoIC 92.9 105.2 114.6 120.6
Debtors 34,219 40,054 43,187 46,145 Valuation Ratios (x)
Loans and Advances 6,456 10,911 11,765 12,571 P/E 29.7 26.9 23.9 22.3
Other Current Assets 19,352 11,566 12,471 13,325 EV / Net Sales 5.7 5.0 4.6 4.2
Current Investments 30,262 30,262 30,262 30,262 Market Cap / Sales 6.0 5.2 4.9 4.5
Cash 18,221 34,766 49,174 64,480 Solvency Ratios
Trade Payable 8,045 10,448 11,265 12,036 Debt / EBITDA 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
OCL & Provisions 32,856 33,389 36,000 38,466 Debt / Equity 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Application of Funds 1,00,613 1,15,213 1,30,971 1,47,493 Current Ratio 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Quick Ratio 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4
es
RATING RATIONALE
ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its
stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold,
Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined
as the analysts' valuation for a stock
Buy: >15%
Hold: -5% to 15%;
Reduce: -15% to -5%;
Sell: <-15%
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
I/We, Sameer Pardikar, MBA, Sujay Chavan, MMS Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the
subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned
Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.
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interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.
Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as
such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.
Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.
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