Expectancy-Value Theory of Optimism
🔍 Overview
The Expectancy-Value Theory (EVT) suggests that optimism arises from people's
expectations that their efforts will lead to desirable outcomes (expectancy) and from the
value they place on those outcomes.
This theory has roots in motivation psychology and was adapted to optimism primarily by
Carver and Scheier in the 1980s, who were also key figures in the development of
dispositional optimism.
🧩 Key Components
1. Expectancy (Can I do this?)
o The belief that a person can successfully achieve a goal.
o Optimistic individuals expect that good outcomes are possible if they keep
trying.
o Pessimistic individuals may believe that failure is more likely, even with effort.
2. Value (Is this worth it?)
o The importance or desirability of the goal.
o If a person highly values a goal and believes it’s achievable, they will be
motivated to pursue it optimistically.
3. Goal-Directed Behavior
o Optimism influences how people respond to obstacles.
o Optimists persist longer, cope more adaptively, and are more likely to re-engage
after setbacks.
💡 How It Works: A Simple Flow
High Expectancy + High Value → Strong Motivation → Optimism → Goal Pursuit
🔁 Optimism, in turn, reinforces goal pursuit, creating a positive feedback loop. If progress is
made, optimism increases. If not, an optimist may revise strategies or adjust goals rather than
give up.
🧠 Psychological Mechanisms
Self-Regulation: Optimism helps regulate behavior by keeping the person focused on
long-term goals.
Coping: Optimists are more likely to use problem-focused coping, while pessimists lean
toward avoidance or denial.
Emotional Buffer: When facing setbacks, optimistic individuals maintain a more
positive emotional state.
🧪 Example
Imagine a student aiming to get into medical school:
If they believe they can succeed with effort (high expectancy) and they deeply value the
goal of becoming a doctor (high value), they will likely persist optimistically through
difficult exams, study late nights, and accept temporary failures.
Their optimism stems from both their confidence in achieving the goal and the
importance of that goal to their identity and future.
📚 Carver and Scheier's View
They emphasize that optimism isn’t blind hope—it’s rooted in goal-related
expectancies.
When goals become blocked or impossible, optimists tend to shift to alternate goals
rather than giving up entirely. This is called goal adjustment.
🤔 Differences from Other Theories
Theory Focus Optimism Is Based On...
Dispositional Personality trait General expectation of good outcomes
Theory Focus Optimism Is Based On...
Attributional Cognitive style Explanations of past events
Expectancy-Value Motivation and goals Beliefs about goal attainability and value
🧭 Criticisms & Limitations
May not fully explain why people develop high or low expectancy.
Doesn’t account for emotional or unconscious factors that might influence optimism.
Assumes a rational, goal-driven view of behavior—not all actions are conscious or goal-
based.