Groten 1995
Groten 1995
141-157, 1995
Coovrieht 0 1994Elsevier Science Ltd
Pergamon Printed’& &ea~Britain. All rights reserved
02663707(94)EOOO4-E 02&t-3707/95$7.00+ 0.00
1. INTRODUCTION
141
earthquake prone areas date back to work more than half a century ago as
discussed in Jeffreys (1924, 1976). With highly precise geodetic gravimetry even
more detailed phenomena than topographic features, Bouguer anomalies etc.
can be used; thus water table variations associated with earthquakes (Ma et al.,
1989) and recent crustal movement events become detectable by repeated
observations or continuous monitoring. If we take into account that interfero-
metric SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) satellite techniques. e.g. with the
ERS-1 satellite, reveal a spatial resolution of + 2.8 cm (Massonnet, 1993) then
even radar methods may in the future become a relevant monitoring technique in
detecting a larger area of recent crustal movements with respect to a neighbour-
ing zone of fixed crust. There is a variety of gravimetric techniques, part of them
was undergoing serious criticism, such as the arguments against dilatancy effects
(Roth, 1993) associated with micro-cracks which may occur only in the case of
shallow focus earthquakes. Such types of earthquakes exist. e.g. in the seismic
belt of Central China. in Ganzou Province where, consequently, still tidal
instruments are being used in the hope to detect secular tilts and uplift
phenomena associated with significant dilatancy phenomena. However, until
now such phenomena were not detected; there was only one major earthquake
in the mid-1980s, so chances were small in the recent past.
Most earthquake predictions and recent crustal movement phenomena
(Chorowicz and Deffontaines, 1993; Madariaga, 1986; Malone, 1986; Mantovani
and Boschi, 1986; Mukhopadhyay and Sen, 1986) are assumed to follow tectonic
plate motion theory, which is still based on rigid plate motion; alternatives
(Keith, 1993) in terms of viscous mantle flow were developed but are still not
often used even in large scale plate motion interpretation. It is, nevertheless,
obvious that rigid plate motion theory suffers from a variety of deficiencies.
The well known seismic gap concept of Fedotov and Mogi which was
meanwhile applied to a greater number of areas (Sykes, 1986), led us to establish
almost a decade ago gravimetric profiles in Chile, Argentinia and Bolivia.
East-West profiles are running from the Pacific coast across the Western
Cordillera up to Salta (Argentina) and North to South from La Paz to Santiago,
with ties to the aseismic areas in Argentina. Repeated high precision measure-
ments are taken at intervals of 3 yr. However, as discussed below, the observed
gravity changes as well as GPS position variations are still inconclusive and,
consequently, do not yet yield significant secular motion rates.
In contrast to the subduction process at the continental margin in South
America the collision at the nothernmost part of the plate boundary between the
Eurasian and African Plate leads to a rather complex plattern of tectonic
processes. In Friuli, where the lithospheric thickness varies significantly and
earthquake activities are well known (Martini and Searpa, 1986), a local
gravimetric testnet was established at the end of a GPS-chain across the western
Alps as major vertical and horizontal motion is expected there. As only one
repetition is available there, only preliminary information is at our disposal
which nevertheless gives some interesting insight to the gravimetric method.
Gravimetry as a tool for crustal movement detection 143
In the two latter cases similar reasoning as in Caputo et al. (1986) may be
appropriate in view of maximum and minimum Bouguer anomalies. However,
presently the interpretation of recent crustal movements in terms of predictable
seismic and other phenomena is mostly required. Insofar direct deformation
rates, several cm per year in California, as discussed in Sykes (1986), are of
interest for disaster prevention and related topics.
The discrepancy between recent and long-term secular dislocation rates leads
to the use of long-time records-such as tidal recording-and to the relation of
144 EKWIN GKOIFN and MAIIHIAS BECKER
tide gauge to GPS or VLBI or SLR networks, also in order to separate the
variations of geocentric tide gauge positions from mean sea level and associated
loading variations. This again illustrates the transition to rather complex moni-
toring systems where the aforementioned potential changes again are taken into
account. Typical cases of this kind are investigations in active areas such as
Fennoscandia and the Mediterranean Basin, where recent GPS-campaigns led to
the first results which even include loading effects. These areas are characterized
by significant postglacial and tectonic motion, respectively, whereas the sea level
changes are relatively small and uncomplicated in modeling processes.
The introduction of permanent global orbit prediction services of high accur-
acy by the International Association of Geodesy such as IGS, GIG etc. led to a
substantial improvement of GPS surveys. To coordinate and combine regional
surveys like pieces of a puzzle game makes it possible to refer all such
observations to a single reference frame and, consequently, infer large-scale
phenomena, too.
The fact that, over longer distances, the errors in the frames of reference make
it often impossible to clearly separate vertical from horizontal dislocation vector
components in space geodesy, led to the tendency to express the results in terms
of rotation-invariant distance variations. This fact underlines the need for
extremely precise reference frames (Shapiro, 1986) in modern space geodesy
with subcentimeter accuracies over large distances.
Tendency goes away from simple presentation of recent crustal movements
without futher modeling, modeling becomes more complex in order to detect
mechanisms behind the pure kinematical effects. Thus purely kinematic are
replaced by kinematic-dynamic studies. Only in this way deterministic and/or
stochastic prediction can become available. Things are too complicated in most
cases for single linear interpolation and extrapolation of geometric phenomena.
3. GLOBAL CHANGE
Okubo and others have outlined procedures for using high-precision (ocean)
surface information in getting improved information on underground processes
using potential theory. Such models can be formulated independently of any
assumption on (rigid) plate tectonics. With increasing accuracy of space radar
and altimetry technology, as mentioned in the introduction, this type of infor-
mation may become increasingly valuable in the aforementioned complex
prediction processes. Insofar the following few numerical examples may just be
considered as small isolated components to be integrated in a larger complex of
geodynamic considerations. This is the reason why, at the beginning of this
paper, we mentioned a number of apparently independent approaches, carried
out at different parts of the earth at different times. The aim must be to finally
combine and relate them in a uniform modal in order to be able to get prediction
abilities.
The possibility to monitor the mean sea level with precision of a few
centimeters by combining, e.g. Topex-Poseidon and ERS-1 altimetry can at least
lead to solutions within regional areas. It is sometimes questioned whether these
solutions are really accurate enough over larger areas to determine large scale
phenomena such as ocean tides with sufficient accuracy for global interpretation.
Insofar the number of “still open questions” is significant.
6. GEODETIC MODELING
Geodetic modeling of aseismic as well as pre-, co- and postseismic motion is,
in general, not following the schemes of seismic source mechanisms in terms of
strike-slip, normal and other faulting types; there are a few exceptions such as in
Okubo (1992); other seismically oriented geodetic modeling is found in several
papers by Okubo and Sun. More often geodetically oriented models such as
point masses or other simple geometries are preferred. There is a great variety of
mass and structure modeling based on different types of observations. To infer
deformation or structures from observables then leads to well known inverse
problems (Zhao and Chao, 1993a, 1993b); modeling of gravity and/or potential
(geoid) changes associated with dislocation and deformation was considered by a
great variety of authors such as Okubo (1991), Groten (1991) (see also Chao et
al., 1993; Savage, 1984; Walsh and Rice, 1979; Wong and Walsh, 1991) where
specifics were considered, such as volcanic deformations. Varga and co-workers
focused on strain and stress fields for specific cases (Varga, 1992; Varga et al.,
1993). Also variations of deflections of the vertical were considered by various
authors, based on astronomical measurements where Hu et al. (1988) even
considered earthquake prediction based on it. Dilatancy modeling (Groten,
1978) was mentioned already earlier. Consequently, at least in principle, com-
plex modeling based on different types of observations is possibly leading to
combination results, where strain, potential and gravity differences and disloca-
tion fields are derived, even including oceanic areas and sea surface displace-
ments.
The geodetic treatment and evaluation of deformations and structures is
hampered by two basic deficiences: (1) the well known infinity of solutions of the
inverse gravimetric problem where external information is necessary to limit the
variety of possible solutions: the assumption of harmonic or bi-harmonic density
distributions is one of the (more or less arbitrary) methods in that case; (2) the
Datum problem associated with relative measurements where repeated obser-
vations are related to each other by more or less arbitrary assumptions (inherent
in free adjustment, keeping one or several points of a network fixed); (3) secular
drift in observations which mainly affects stationary observations so that only
periodic or aperiodic phenomena can be derived whereas events linear in time
(or similar) can seldomly be detected. The example discussed in detail in the
following section is affected by ( 1) and (2).
The datum problem for dislocations can be avoided by the transition to strain,
but in case of vertical displacement the treatment in terms of dislocation is often
preferred.
In this paper we focus on the Friuh area and the Southern Central Andes
which are active seismic areas as outlined before and repeated gravimetry is used
as a particular case even though the length of the observation series is not yet
sufficient to get conclusive results.
Looking at the measurement of gravity and its minute variations, three groups
of techniques and associated instruments have to be considered. These are the
stationary recordings of tidal and other gravity changes, the absolute gravity
apparatus and the classical relative gravimeters.
In the first field of tidal recordings the introduction of the superconducting
gravity meters by Goodkind (1986) led to a giant step forward. Gravity
variations are monitored with a resolution of one-thousandth of a ,ugal (or one
part in 10~” m/s’) and with an accuracy of about 0.01-0.1 pgal. This instrument
led to a great improvement of tidal models, modeling of atmospheric pressure
induced gravity variations and all kinds of transient effects in gravity up to polar
motion research (Richter, 1986). However, due to the limited number of about
15 instruments worldwide and due to the fact that they cannot be used for field
applications up to now. the implication for geodynamical research is very limited
and constrained to basic modeling of environmental effects,
The measurement of absolute gravity (Timmen et al., 1992) has experienced a
great deal of technological improvement. State of the art is now demonstrated by
the FG.5 Absolute Gravimeter (Carter et al., 1994). This instrument, developed
by the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology, the U.S. National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA and the Institute of Applied
Gravimetry as a tool for crustal movement detection 147
The Friuli Gravity Net is an example for local monitoring of gravity changes in
a tectonically active area. The north of Italy is located at the margin of a complex
geological structure formed as a consequence of the push of the Adriatic
microplate under the European plate (Fig. 1). This leads to strong earthquakes
and horizontal and vertical movements. Besides other geodetic tools like
levelling and GPS, gravimetry is applied for the study of crustal movements and
gravity variations.
The net, as sketched in Figs 1 and 3 is almost ideally suited for high precise
gravimetry. Driving distances are short, points are well monumented and the
gravity differences are small, i.e. less than 20 mgal in the core network, and thus,
together with the proper use of the D-meter reset option, eliminating scale and
periodical error problems, the datum is fixed by the ties to an Absolute Gravity
Site repeatedly observed and controlled. Two observation campaigns separated
2 years in time, using the identical set of 3 LaCoste Model D and 1 LaCoste
Model G gravity meters, have been conducted (Becker et al., 1994b).
Figure 2 shows the gravity variations for the single sites and associated root
mean square errors. These errors are in the order of 5--8ygal and are quite
typical for this type of network (Demirel and Gerstenecker, 1990; Kanngieser,
1982).
Results are indicating significant gravity changes on at least six of 12 points.
This was quite surprising since GPS campaigns repeated over the same interval
in time do not indicate any geometrical variation of position or height. Even
though these results appear quite contradictory, the revision of the correlation of
Gravimetry as a tool for crustal movement detection 149
I Villach
t I
, I Dobratsb
0 IO 20 30 km . 0
8 GPS + gravity
Cl Gravity
0 Tolmezzo
l GPS
Osoppu E Cumieli
site)
gravity variations with the local geophysical and geological structures is obvious
(Figs 1 and 3). Sets of points with a common trend of gravity increase or decrease
are situated in areas separated by the major disturbance zones. Repeated
levellings, which started earlier this century and therefore also cover the time of
the 6.4 magnitude earthquake in 1976, with their last repetition in 1993, confirm
a trend of uplift (gravity decrease) north of the Periadriatic Disturbance Zone
30 -
-10 -
Z
._ T
n Fixed station
-20 -
Fig. 2. Gravity changes 1991 to 1993 and their root mean square errors.
ERWIN GKO I I:N and MAT-I HIAS BECK~K
46.32 -
- Far distance Ana .
stations z
-20 Braulins l Cumieli
\ O-13
l Glemine
46.21 - -16
GSOPPO l
46.22 - Solim;>
Peonis
l 16
0
7 . Artegna
IO
Codroipo
fl; l So’aris 1. o
Longitude
Fig. .i. Ciravity change\ at the (iemona core gravity net @gal)
(Marson, private commun. 1994). Although further repetitions are required for
a confirmation of trends, gravity may show actual geophysical phenomena not
affecting the purely geometric quantities sensed by GPS. This is another example
that only a combination of different techniques, like gravimetry, GPS and
wherever possible geodetic levelling, is required to uncover the complete picture
of geodynamical effects.
Another interestings aspect in the Friuli network is the demonstration of the
still problematic modeling of the individual instruments. As seen from Fig. 4,
single instruments on a few sites show discrepancies of up to 20pgal. Up to now
there is no explanation for this and it shows, that even highly sophisticated
techniques of observation, corrections and adjustment do not assure conclusive
results in general. There still seems to be a kind of “hidden variable”, an
imperfection in the stochastic or functional model for precise gravimetry, not
fully understood and asking for the use of several instruments in parallel to make
use of the randomization effect.
II I, R.m.s. R.m.s.d
1 I I I 1 I I
_
152 ERWIN GKO.W.N and MATTHIAS BEC.KEK
r I
\
’
; ,-_ LaPaz
r -6
St cruz
d ONN
+4
-19
0 Huari
i-
24°C Ant
+I5
28”’
/
i o San Juan
32’S ‘I
\
+51 0 Mendoza
\ 0
Sytiago ,
I
72” w 68” W 64” W
Longitude
An attempt to monitor the subduction process of the Pacific Plate under the
South American Plate along a large portion of Chile’s Northern Pacific coast was
made with the installation of the “ABC-Profiles” in 1984 (Becker et al., 1989).
About 30 main stations and the same number of additional sites were established
Gravimetry as a tool for crustal movement detection 153
in Argentina, Bolivia and Chile and repeatedly observed in three major cam-
paigns 1984, 1987 and 1990. Figure 5 shows the main gravity stations connected
by the profiles. Quite contrary to the situation in Friuli, the environmental
effects and design aspects of the network are almost the worst case possibly
imaginable. Gravity range is about 2 gal introducing all kinds of calibration
problems and the station separation of up to several hundred kilometers does not
allow daily or more frequent drift controls. Moreover stable reference sites or
absolute gravity sites are located rather distant from the zone of geodynamical
activity and the absolute sites were installed in Argentina prior to the third
campaign only. So from the beginning it was intended to use design and
observation schemes specially adapted to these difficult situations (Becker et al.,
1986) and to rely on the randomization effect by using six-eight gravity meters
identical to all campaigns.
Of special importance in the absence of several absolute sites covering the
complete gravity range is the scale control of the gravity meters used. As shown
in Atzbacher et al. (1993) the scale factor of LaCoste instruments is subject to
minute changes in time in the order of a few parts in 10e5. This introduces an
error of several tens of pgal in gravity differences of about 800 mgal as directly
observed, e.g. between La Paz and the Pacific Coast. Therefore it has to be
assured, that at least the sum of the scale changes of the set of gravity meters
used is zero or that larger scale factor changes are determined on calibration
lines. This also means, that the design of the network should be such that the
individual gravity values of the sites allow a discrimination of an overall scale
change in the network and of the set of gravity meters used based on the
geological and geophysical settings for the expected pattern of possible gravity
variations.
As for the ABC profiles the strategy worked quite well as can be inferred from
Fig. 5 and Table 3. Figure 5 shows the mean value for each major zone which was
to be computed from a set of l-4 individual sites at each area in order to check
the local stability. Table 3 shows the individual changes and confidence levels.
With the exception of some stations with probably local effects, most of the sites
seem to have been stable between 1984 and 1990. Gravity variations between
epochs are determined with errors of lO-15pgal and the variations itself are in
the order of lo-20pgal and so not significant up to now.
As can be seen from Table 2 and compared to Table 1 for the Friuli net the
accuracy, as far as represented in the errors of the adjustment, is inferior by a
factor of 2-3 only.
The errors of relative gravimetry and possible height variations as deduced out
of them at present are comparable to those of GPS and tide gauge records if used
for the analysis of time dependent variations in height in this special project
(Becker et al., 1994a). In conclusion it must be assumed that rates of change of
gravity and/or height are smaller than initially estimated or that changes do not
take place continuously but in descrete events related to major earthquakes,
which have not been observed close to the main gravity sites in the time up to
ERWIN GKOTCN and MUTHIAS BIXKW
10. CONCLUSION
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