Shares 1707
Shares 1707
4 9
EMERGING
MARKETS
COMEBACK
WEIGHING THE PROSPECTS
FOR A CONTINUED RECOVERY
Contents
05 EDITOR’S VIEW
Hefty tariffs on EU imports to US
might be good news for British
businesses
16
NEWS
07 New tariffs threaten European,
Canadian and Mexican trade with
the US
08 Bitcoin prices set record as
investor bet big on ‘crypto week’
09 Infrastructure group Galliford
Try hits five-year high on raised
guidance
09 ‘Ugly’ update sends former ad
giant WPP’s stock to 15-year low
10 Can MONY maintain
momentum with its first-half results?
11 Lockheed Martin’s Q2 clues to
US defence spending regime
GREAT IDEAS
12 Genus is on the cusp of a
transformation to sustainably higher
profitability
14 Personal Group is a small cap
with big ambitions
UPDATES
15 Rockwood Strategic is
rewarding investors with a stellar
returns
FEATURES 22
16 COVER STORY
EMERGING MARKETS COMEBACK
Weighing the prospects
for a continued recovery
22 What cleaner accounts might
be telling investors about long-term
shareholder value
25 FUNDS
When should you give an
underperforming fund manager the
boot?
27 DAN COATSWORTH
Housebuilders: what’s holding back
the sector and what could drive a
recovery
25 31
31 ASK RACHEL
How do the carry-forward rules on
pension contributions work?
33 INDEX
Shares, funds, ETFs and investment
trusts in this issue
EMERGIN
Feature:
Clean ac
counts
MARKET G
Funds: Un
What cle When sh derperfor
mers
be tellin aner accounts underpe ould you give a
g invest might
manage rforming fund n
COMEBA S
long-term ors
shareho about r the boo
t?
The way
a compa lder valu Determi
T
e
ny presen ning when
ts its numb str uggling inv to cal
CK
his feature ers can rev estment l time on a
I
looks
for compan at the incr eal mo re than yo vehicle
easing u think
financial figuies to present adjust trend n his latest
per res and/or ed sharehold semi-annual letter
whether it formance measu APM (alternative ers
another spe , Terry Smith has
to
res
themselve may say something ) and asks
WEIGHIN s. about the Fundsmith ll of underperforma out
laid
T
often prove in tod
to be among ay’s market The first thinG PERFORMANCE
hanks to a the most 700 Fund pric g to do is assess per
driven by topsy-turvy start to e
what ultimamovements up and formance proper
a
administraticombination of thethe year, horizon SANDFO
RD DELAN you’re eva tely matter most down are clearly
ly.
on’s unp new US s and reasse 600
lua to
on
inflation and trade and foreign redictable policies should allocate the ssing how and wh OF CLEAN D EXAMP
LES to compar ting an active ma investors, but if
e
and conflict the rise of geopol relations, sticky With the ir capital. ere they
GAMES WO
ACCOUN
TS benchmark performance to annager, you need
, investors itic world ma US representing clos The largest RKSHOP factsheet, . Often this will be appropriate
are broade al uncertainty rke but sho
ning their developed t cap and more tha e to 60% of UK Buffettoholding in the
2021 fund groups do be a bit carefu wn on the fund’s
Emerging areas whichmarket indices, atte n 70% of global
2022
2023
to the fun provide performancl as sometimes
developed markets outper mig ntio (FUND:BF logy Fund Source: 2024
d sector the
ht n is y sit in. Thi e compared
2025
terms of gro offer turnin 0LD LSEG
be a bad com
markets form wth and valubetter opportunities g to One of few Z3).
2025 so far in One area e. in companies successfu Investors but it probab parator, depend s might not
relatively which has long bee l lon ly won’t be ing on the
produces which still ‘Clean fina g-term investment their own in Fun dsm ben chm as goo sector,
conclusion ith Equity will no dou
1
speaking,
2 3
n neglected, ark
strong bus ncials can be an ind s.’ on the fact , which will norma d as the official
MSCI Eme
However, is a
rging Mar
since the EM or emerging ma black-and- traditional wider que s. But this bt draw lly
trusts, it’s sheet. When lookin at least be stated
kets iness fran
MSCI Wor
ld started to
change.
turn of the
yea rkets. wh
report wit ite annual high-qual chise that icator of a manager
stion of how doe
long you s tap into the the NAV (ne
r that has ity is g at
110 According h
images or no glossy need for “smearnings consistent able to deliver wh
investors, o is underperformi should give a fun which you t asset valu investment
to sho
Companies) the AIC (Assoc
iation of Inv
distraction
s. “adjustme oothing” by the CFOly without the Favourite
like those
who put togng. Professional
d manager’s uld focus on, e) retu
if you’re ass rn
trusts record, global emerging estment nts” each
year,’ explain in the form of Fun
to face, and ds list, will interro ether the AJ Bell includes moperformance. The essing a
ma SOFTCAT sha
against 7% ed an average retu rket equities s Beggs. which the vements in the disc re price return
100
Held in the THE ‘RAW’ out the pre analyse their funds gate managers face
a whole. for the investment rn of 11.4% UK Companies AND THE ‘COOKED’ looking for cise reasons for und in detail, finding expected
fund manag ount and
trust univer Consistent Buffettology Fun to control er can’t realisticall premium,
90 Investment se as financials. ly well-run busine d. under the are required to pre knitting. signs the manager erperformance, and All active . y be
were among trusts focused on ss with clea Companies pare annual isn’t stickin of underp managers will go thro
choose wh
months to the best perform Chi nes e equities n ich accoun Act 2006, but they accounts Replicating g to their erfo rma nce, so you ugh per
Jan
ers JAMES HA In the UK ting standar can the everyd this approach is too much
shouldn’t iods
again com June, with an averag in the six
Feb Mar abo
2025 Apr May fort Held in the LSTEAD under the and Europe, compan ds to use. cha
the time oray investor, who doe llenging for falls behind ut a short spell
wh worry
Jun Jul wider trust ably above the avee return of 14.6%, UK IFR
Standards S (International Fin ies report analysing resources to dedicatsn’t usually have performanc its benchmark. As en the fund
Rebased space. rage for the Family bus Buffettology Fun ) well as tota
to 100
Even em financial con iness with a long d. GAAP (Ge standards while in ancial Reporting fun
profession ds in such forensic e themselves to annual per e over a given tim l
considered erging market debt, nerally Acc the US firm e
too, which formance over the period, consider
Chart: Shar
es magazin servatism track record me ept s ally selecte detail. Tha
e • Source:
LSEG investors, high-risk by most wh ich is and clean
reporting.
of asu res. ed Acc ounting Prin use Favourite
Funds, can d fun ds lists, like t’s why
factsheet. is normally presen
last five yea
is fixed inco It may see ciples) investors be a AJ Bell’s ted rs
flows reboun‘showing signs of me a nuanced m reasonable for to check on. helpful
But when resource for which has
Con sider if the on
re was one the fund
life bee
and 2Q inve ding sharply sinc , with fund far from perview of performanc
companies a fund ma underperfo n res ponsible for bad year
stment per e the fect e (accoun to offer nager
done otherwrmance, and how most of the
formance end of April 22 | SHARES base forecas ), but the tan
outpacing
that
| 17 July 2025 ts on adjust issue is analysts tents are ise. the fund has
ed number d
s which me to
ans
Why emerging markets are Why it pays to own companies Knowing when to sell an
17 July 2025 17 July 2025
| SHARES | SHARES
| 17 | 25
back on investors’ buy lists with clean accounts underperforming fund or trust
The first half of this year has seen When companies repeatedly adjust All active managers go through
a revival of interest in emerging their earnings for so-called ‘non- periods of underperformance, but
markets, which in turn has recurring items’ it can be difficult judging when to give them the
generated a revival in performance, to get a clear picture of how the benefit of the doubt and when to
as global investors look for business is really doing. We cut call it a day is by no means easy.
alternatives to the tired narrative of through the morass to reveal the We look at the factors which can
‘US exceptionalism’. companies with ‘clean’ accounts. help you make the crucial decision.
Experian notches up new year high B&M sinks as weak first-quarter sales Barratt Redrow shares hit 12-month
after strong Q1 and margin warning spook investors low on disappointing update
Hefty tariffs on EU
imports to US might
be good news for
British businesses
One analyst thinks there is only one clear
recommendation today – ‘buy UK’
A
s we write, the UK has put itself in a there is one clear recommendation: Buy UK.’
pretty rare position by virtue of already Klement spells out how his third point could
having thrashed out a trade agreement work over time. Noting that, because the UK is
with the US. subject to 10% tariffs from the US and exports from
The Trump administration continues to make the EU to US are typically 10%, EU manufacturers
threats of hefty levies on imports elsewhere, as Ian could ship goods from the EU to the UK, do what’s
Conway explains in this week’s News section, with required to make them goods which could qualify
the EU and Mexico facing 30% tariffs based on the as being made in the UK, then ship them to the US.
latest pronouncements from the White House. The argument against this is the unpredictability
The apparently harsh treatment of the EU could of President Trump and a potential change in
be to the benefit of the UK according to Panmure government in 2028, or an outcome in the mid-
Liberum analyst Joachim Klement. term elections next year which leads to a less
Klement acknowledges there could be compliant Congress.
considerable movement between now and the 1 These possibilities could put companies off
August deadline, when said tariffs are set to come making long-term decisions around investing in
into force, but examines how things might play out manufacturing and logistics infrastructure in the UK
based on the current rhetoric. to benefit from any arbitrage on tariffs.
‘We emphasise three key points,’ says Klement. Nonetheless, and amid plenty of bad news for
‘One, if the tariffs are implemented as threatened, UK plc of late, it will be interesting to see if this
the US will almost certainly go into recession in country can genuinely be a long-term beneficiary of
2026 and see inflation spike above 4%; two, UK the trade war.
stocks should outperform European peers because
I
thanks to the trade deal between the US and n this issue we look at emerging markets
the UK, trade uncertainty is much lower for UK and whether the nascent recovery in the
businesses; and three, if the tariffs remain in place first part of 2025 can continue, and also
for longer, there is an arbitrage opportunity for consider the importance of how a company
European business to divert exports to the US via handles its accounts. Martin Gamble hears from
the UK, creating a large need for investments in the a fund manager about things to look out for in
UK in the next three to five years.’ accounting and highlights some examples of best
Klement concludes: ‘As the world stands today, and worst practice.
www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/videos
News
A
nother week and another round of US and Japan, as well as looking to deepen trade
tariffs on imports, with the White House relationships with India and countries in South-East
threatening a 35% levy on Canada and Asia.
30% on goods from the EU (European EU competition chief Teresa Ribera told
Union) and Mexico. Bloomberg TV: ‘We need to explore how far, how
The three regions are major trading partners deep we can go in the Pacific area with other
with the US, so if the tariffs are implemented as countries.’
planned on 1 August it would mean a significant Meanwhile, European Commission chief
increase in the price of goods and therefore Ursula Von der Leyen told reporters the EU
inflation, but in his usual style President Trump has would continue to suspend its current trade
said he might make changes or he might not. countermeasures against the US, which would
The Financial Times quoted a US administration impact around $25 billion of goods, until the start
official as saying the tariffs on Canada would likely of August to allow for further talks.
be waived for goods which comply with the 2020 The UK, which imports more from the US than it
trade agreement signed by Trump, which could exports, has just a 10% tariff on goods and services,
blunt their impact, but no final decision had which makes it a clear winner if the status quo is
been made. maintained.
According to the Department of Commerce, Stock markets, which might have been expected
Canada had a trade surplus of just $36 billion last to sell off as they did in April after the ‘Liberation
year, while the EU and Mexico ended 2024 with Day’ announcement, have instead powered to new
trade surpluses of around $148 billion and $176 highs, leading analysts to raise their year-end price
billion, although they still trailed China which had a targets for the S&P 500 index.
surplus of $262 billion. The acid test for investors will be the second-
The EU, the biggest trading partner with the US, quarter earnings season, which kicked off this week
is reportedly stepping up efforts to engage with with the major US banks including JPMorgan Chase
other countries hit by tariffs, including Canada (JPM:NYSE) and Wells Fargo (WFC:NYSE). [IC]
Trade in goods and services with the US in 2024
Trade in goods and services with the US in 2024
Trade in goods and services with the US in 2024
US imports from US trade balance
US exports to ($bn) US imports from
($bn) US trade balance
($bn)
US exports to ($bn) ($bn)
US imports from ($bn)
US trade balance
European Union US exports to ($bn)
666.7 ($bn) 815.2 ($bn) −148.4
European Union 666.7 815.2 −148.4
Canada
European 440.7 476.7 −36.0
Canada Union 440.7
666.7
476.7
815.2 −148.4
−36.0
Mexico
Canada 384.9
440.7 560.7
476.7 −175.9 −36.0
Mexico 384.9 560.7 −175.9
China
Mexico 199.3 384.9 461.4
560.7 −262.2 −175.9
China 199.3 461.4 −262.2
UK
China 179.5
199.3 162.2
461.4 −262.2 17.3
UK 179.5 162.2 17.3
UK 179.5 162.2 17.3
Note: a minus figure represents a US trade deficit
Note: a minus figure represents a US trade deficit
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bloomberg
Source: US Department
Note: a minus of Commerce,
figure represents Bloomberg
a US trade deficit
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bloomberg
17 July 2025 | SHARES | 07
News
B
itcoin vaulted past $120,000 for the first
100K
time on 14 July, the latest milestone for
the world’s largest cryptocurrency as 80K
investors bet on industry policy wins in
what been dubbed ‘crypto week’. This is a banner 60K
being used to describe a series of debates by US
lawmakers that could lay the foundations for a long- 40K
sought regulatory framework on digital assets. 20K
‘Donald Trump has talked about making America
the crypto capital of the world, and now the market 0
is hoping those words become reality’, wrote Dan 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell.
Bitcoin rose to register a record high of Source: LSEG
$123,153.22 before easing and was last noted
trading at $117,124.20, marking an 11% rally over
the past month. The cryptocurrency is now up more debt, which is high and set to go even higher.
than 25% so far in 2025. Bitcoin is seen as a portfolio diversifier and a ‘just
‘Crypto week’ will see US lawmakers debate a in case’ store of value in a similar vein to gold, albeit
range of issues, including three pieces of new a highly volatile one. While bitcoin valuation
legislation; the Clarity Act, the Anti-CBDC is driven purely by speculation, interest
Surveillance State Act, and the Senate’s continues to grow in cryptocurrency assets.
Genius Act. ‘There are now various investment
‘After years of dedicated work in funds that track the bitcoin price and that
Congress on digital assets, we are gives investors more choice in how they
advancing landmark legislation to establish get exposure. It’s made it a lot easier to take
a clear regulatory framework for digital assets a position and that has helped to drive up
that safeguards consumers and investors, provides demand and push up the bitcoin price,’ wrote AJ
rules for the issuance and operation of dollar-backed Bell’s Coatsworth.
payment stablecoins, and permanently blocks the But lots of UK investors still rely on ‘bitcoin
creation of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) to proxies’ to gain exposure, shares in listed companies
safeguard Americans’ financial privacy,’ said House who own large slugs of bitcoin and/or other
Committee on Financial Services chair French Hill. cryptocurrencies. Wall Street-listed Strategy
Despite ongoing uncertainties around trade (MSTR:NASDAQ) has seen its stock surge 50% this
tariffs, economic growth and geopolitical issues, year and 180% over the past 12 months for this
investors appear to be hedging their bets by piling reason, regularly among the most traded US equites
into bitcoin. Even though equities have been moving on the AJ Bell platform. [SF]
higher as markets appear to shrug off the latest tariff
news, investors know they cannot rule out Donald DISCLAIMER: Financial services company AJ Bell
Trump taking a completely new direction with trade referenced in this article owns Shares magazine.
discussions and doing something out of the blue. The author of this article (Steven Frazer) and the
There are also growing concerns about US national editor (Tom Sieber) own shares in AJ Bell.
Genus
(GNS) £23.91
Market cap: £1.58 billion
L
eading global animal genetics company
Genus (GNS) is on the cusp of fully
commercialising its proprietary PRP (PRRS
or Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory
Syndrome virus-resistant pig) technology.
This could be transformational for farmers in
the porcine industry who have seen their herds
decimated by the virus over many years.
A recent study from Iowa State University
reported the devastating virus costs $1.2 billion per advantage for producers who adopt it, plus it has
year in the US alone. the potential to transform the profitability of Genus.
PRP should provide a material competitive The US FDA (Food and Drug Administration)
approved the use of Genus’ gene editing technology
for use in the food supply on 30 April 2025, earlier
Genus than anticipated.
(p) This gives Genus the green light to begin
6,000
exploiting the opportunity, although there is still
work to be done in terms of getting regulatory
approval in the key US export markets of Canada,
5,000
Mexico and Japan, with announcements expected
in 2025.
4,000 PRP has already been approved in Brazil,
Columbia and the Dominican Republic, while
3,000 progress is also being made in China.
Analysts at Peel Hunt believe Genus has spent
2,000 more than £80 million over the last decade
developing its proprietary gene editing technology.
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 The company has a strong intellectual property
portfolio protecting the technology with 43 patents
Source: LSEG issued in 37 countries.
Shore Capital’s Sean Conroy is of the view US
Personal Group
(PGH:AIM) 284p 300
W
orkplace benefits and health
insurance provider Personal Group
200
(PGH:AIM) is a relative market
minnow but chief executive
Paula Constant and chief financial officer Sarah 150
Mace have big ambitions for the business. We
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
think these ambitions are worth backing for
investors, particularly with the valuation looking Source: LSEG
undemanding. Consensus forecasts put the
shares on 11.6 times 2026 earnings and have
them offering a yield of 6.9% based on next year’s The Sage Employee Benefit scheme for SMEs
dividend. boosted annual recurring revenue by 10% last year
The duo aim to achieve £100 million of revenue and increased insurance sales by 18%. A customer
by 2030, more than twice what it made in 2024. retention rate running above 80% shows how much
The hope is this will translate into £30 million of the client base values the service.
EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation Behind the scenes there has been some tangible
and amortisation) or three times what it made progress too. There has been a real emphasis on
last year. securing recurring revenue streams and reducing
As well as lifting revenue 13% and EBITDA 29%, the seasonality in the business while, at the same
the firm won multiple industry awards in 2025. time, together with making the balance sheet more
Significantly it also built on its existing relationship robust.
with FTSE 100 accounting and financial software The full-year dividend was hiked 41% to 16.5p –
firm Sage (SGE) and delivered the best ever months ahead of the 32% increase in basic EPS (earnings
of leads in November and December. per share) from operations. There should be
That momentum has carried through into the capacity to increase the amount it doles out to
current year. Paula Constant says the firm is ‘on shareholders from here too. As at the end of
a great organic trajectory’, with its offering really December the firm had cash and bank deposits of
chiming with customers. more than £25 million and zero debt.
‘We are completely focused on winning new Dividends are likely to come before M&A in
partnerships, maximising the value of our Sage the list of priorities. Constant says any potential
relationship and winning new insurance business,’ transaction ‘would have to be absolutely right’ to
says Constant. justify the effort, the money and the drain on the
Among the roster of existing staff benefit partners executive team’s time and resources. The size of
are B&Q, British Airways, DHL, Mitie (MTO), Ocado the existing addressable market and the significant
Retail and Royal Mail. Personal Group also counts potential to grow the business organically are
universities and museums among its clients. clearly at front of mind for management. [IC]
S
hares flagged the merits of Rockwood 280
Strategic (RKW) at 187.5p in November
2023, highlighting the value-focused trust
260
as a way to gain differentiated exposure to
a small cap asset class with re-rating scope.
We lauded manager Richard Staveley’s tried-and- 240
tested strategy, which identifies undervalued stocks
where the company will benefit from operational, Oct Jan Apr Jul
strategic or management changes that can unlock 2024 2025
or create value for investors.
Source: LSEG
WHAT HAS HAPPENED SINCE WE SAID TO BUY?
Rockwood Strategic has cemented its position as
one of the very best performing UK smaller division and cost-saving plan which Staveley
company trusts and the shares have helped to instigate; he has booked some
responded positively post results (18 profits but continues to hold the stock.
June) for the year to March 2025.
These revealed NAV total WHAT SHOULD INVESTORS
returns of 21%, which compares DO NOW?
to the 1.2% average of the AIC’s Stick with Rockwood Strategic,
(Association of Investment whose premium to NAV has
Companies) UK Smaller Companies allowed the trust to issue shares to
sector. Rather than being generated help sate investor demand. Staveley
by M&A as in past reporting periods, insists: ‘A concentrated portfolio, full
the returns were driven by holdings of incredibly undervalued equities, is
delivering strong operational performance, now in place, with identifiable catalysts
in many cases instigated by Staveley. ‘This has across our investments to unlock, create or realise
since been recognised by other investors leading value for shareholders.’
to share price recoveries,’ points out Kepler analyst Among the new holdings seeding returns for
Ryan Lightfoot-Aminoff. ‘As such, we believe holders of Rockwood are outsourcing business
these results demonstrate the repeat potential Capita (CPI), regional venture capital provider
of Richard’s approach, as whilst M&A can often Mercia Asset Management (MERC:AIM) and
be sporadic and reliant on external factors, the Kooth (KOO:AIM), a digitally led hybrid service
heavy engagement approach means value can be providing mental health services to young
extracted from holdings in a variety of backdrops.’ people, which Staveley believes has significant
One of last year’s best performers was Funding growth opportunities in the US and the rest of
Circle (FCH), aided by the sale of a loss-making the World. [JC]
T
hanks to a topsy-turvy start to the year, horizons and reassessing how and where they
driven by a combination of the new US should allocate their capital.
administration’s unpredictable policies With the US representing close to 60% of
on trade and foreign relations, sticky world market cap and more than 70% of global
inflation and the rise of geopolitical uncertainty developed market indices, attention is turning to
and conflict, investors are broadening their areas which might offer better opportunities in
terms of growth and value.
Emerging markets outperform One area which has long been neglected,
developed markets so far in relatively speaking, is EM or emerging markets.
However, since the turn of the year that has
2025 started to change.
MSCI Emerging Markets MSCI World According to the AIC (Association of Investment
Companies), global emerging market equities
trusts recorded an average return of 11.4%
110
against 7% for the investment trust universe as
a whole.
100 Investment trusts focused on Chinese equities
were among the best performers in the six
months to June, with an average return of 14.6%,
90
again comfortably above the average for the
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul wider trust space.
2025 Even emerging market debt, which is
considered high-risk by most fixed income
Rebased to 100 investors, is ‘showing signs of life, with fund
Chart: Shares magazine • Source: LSEG flows rebounding sharply since the end of April
and 2Q investment performance outpacing that
Canada 13.0%
China 8.1%
Germany 4.3%
Japan 4.0%
Switzerland 4.0%
Ireland 3.8%
Taiwan 3.6%
Vietam 3.2%
T
his feature looks at the increasing trend
for companies to present adjusted
financial figures and/or APM (alternative
performance measures) and asks
whether it may say something about the companies
themselves.
For example, do companies which provide
unadjusted numbers make better long-term
investments?
Fund manager David Beggs at Sandford DeLand
believes that may be the case, telling Shares:
‘Companies which report clean, unadjusted
financials are increasingly rare in today’s market
– but they often prove to be among the most
GAMES WORKSHOP
The largest holding in the
UK Buffettology Fund successful long-term investments.’
(FUND:BF0LDZ3). ‘Clean financials can be an indicator of a
One of few strong business franchise that is able to deliver
companies which still high-quality earnings consistently without the
produces a traditional need for “smoothing” by the CFO in the form of
black-and-white annual “adjustments” each year,’ explains Beggs.
report with no glossy
images or distractions. THE ‘RAW’ AND THE ‘COOKED’
Companies are required to prepare annual accounts
SOFTCAT under the Companies Act 2006, but they can
Held in the UK Buffettology Fund. choose which accounting standards to use.
Consistently well-run business with clean In the UK and Europe, companies report
financials. under the IFRS (International Financial Reporting
Standards) standards while in the US firms use
JAMES HALSTEAD GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles)
Held in the UK Buffettology Fund. measures.
Family business with a long track record of It may seem reasonable for companies to offer
financial conservatism and clean reporting. a nuanced view of performance (accountants are
far from perfect), but the issue is analysts tend to
base forecasts on adjusted numbers which means
Selection of companies
companies with
with clean
cleanaccounts
accountsin
inShares
Shares’view
view
Berkshire
BRK-B:NYSE 759.6
Hathaway
statutory results tend to get less scrutiny. by private equity firms as a proxy for cash flow,
A knock-on effect is incentives and executive pay allowing them to maximise the amount of leverage
are often based on APM which consequently can they could use.
change company behaviours. However, it has a major drawback, because
We are not suggesting all companies which adjust depreciation is a real business cost.
numbers are bad, simply that cleaner accounts Most firms own assets, and most assets
reflect good corporate governance and a refreshing depreciate with use, so depreciation is a real cost to
honesty with shareholders. a business, and assumptions about the useful life of
As Beggs says: ‘The raw numbers can speak an asset have consequences for reported profits.
for themselves. They suggest strong internal For example, if company A assumes five years
controls, accounting discipline and a conservative of useful life and company B believes seven years
management culture.’ is about right, company A will, all else being equal,
This table aims to provide a list of companies report lower profitability, even though it is adopting
which appear to adopt clean accounts, but it’s also a potentially more prudent approach.
worth discussing some commonly used alternative In any case, why use a proxy for cash when all
performance measures. companies report the real thing? Simply head to the
cash flow statement and look for ‘cash generated
EBITDA IS NOT CASH from operations’ to get a more useful picture.
The late Charlie Munger had an almost pathological Operating cash flow minus normalised capital
candour about him. ‘I think you would understand expenditures (maintenance spending) is often the
any presentation using the word EBITDA if every best measure of sustainable cash flow, although
time you saw that word, you just substituted the few companies divulge their maintenance capital
phrase with bull**** earnings,’ fumed Munger. expenditure.
EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, Some companies calculate adjusted EBITDA
depreciation, and amortisation) was popularised which usually involves removing one-off, non-
2017
Other $8,986
Other −$17,784
Source: WeWork
I
n his latest semi-annual letter to
shareholders, Terry Smith has laid out
another spell of underperformance for the
Fundsmith Equity (B41YBW7) fund. The goes through a difficult patch, there are also
fund fell behind the MSCI World Index by a modest questions DIY investors can ponder which will
amount, just 2% in the first six months of this year. help them come to a decision on whether to stick
However, this comes on the back of four calendar or twist.
years of failing to beat the global stock market.
MEASURING PERFORMANCE
The first thing to do is assess performance properly.
Fundsmith Equity Fund price movements up and down are clearly
(p) what ultimately matter most to investors, but if
you’re evaluating an active manager, you need
700 to compare performance to an appropriate
benchmark. Often this will be shown on the fund’s
600 factsheet, but do be a bit careful as sometimes
fund groups provide performance compared
to the fund sector they sit in. This might not
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 be a bad comparator, depending on the sector,
but it probably won’t be as good as the official
Source: LSEG benchmark, which will normally at least be stated
on the factsheet. When looking at investment
Investors in Fundsmith Equity will no doubt draw trusts, it’s the NAV (net asset value) return
their own conclusions. But this does tap into the which you should focus on, if you’re assessing a
wider question of how long you should give a fund manager’s performance. The share price return
manager who is underperforming. Professional includes movements in the discount and premium,
investors, like those who put together the AJ Bell which the fund manager can’t realistically be
Favourite Funds list, will interrogate managers face expected to control.
to face, and analyse their funds in detail, finding All active managers will go through periods
out the precise reasons for underperformance, and of underperformance, so you shouldn’t worry
looking for signs the manager isn’t sticking to their too much about a short spell when the fund
knitting. falls behind its benchmark. As well as total
Replicating this approach is challenging for performance over a given time period, consider
the everyday investor, who doesn’t usually have annual performance over the last five years
the time or resources to dedicate themselves to too, which is normally presented on the fund
analysing funds in such forensic detail. That’s why factsheet. Consider if there was one bad year
professionally selected funds lists, like AJ Bell’s which has been responsible for most of the
Favourite Funds, can be a helpful resource for underperformance, and how the fund has
investors to check on. But when a fund manager done otherwise.
ALL LONG PERIODS OF POOR RETURNS START of the portfolio needing to do a lot of heavy lifting
WITH A SHORT ONE to generate outperformance. The hegemony of
All long periods of underperformance start with a the Magnificent Seven has moderated somewhat
short one, and deciding if and when to pull the plug in 2025, but even if that trend is sustained, it will
is undoubtedly a difficult one. As a fund investor, take some time to feed through into long-term
you have a choice about how to go about things. performance figures.
Either you cut and run at the first sign of trouble,
or you sit and wait it out. If you jump ship quickly, ONE IN, ONE OUT
you might get out of some funds before a long If you sell out of a fund because of under-
downturn in performance, but equally you will miss performance, you’ll need to put your money
some that bounce back. Meanwhile you also rack somewhere else. There are broadly two options if
up trading costs and spend a lot of time and effort you’re staying invested. One is to go for a tracker
moving your portfolio around. You also have to fund, which can be expected to underperform the
switch your money into another fund, and who’s index by a small amount (the annual fund charges)
to say the one you choose is not about to embark each year. This is a wholesale change in approach
a period of underperformance? If you choose the and implies some disillusionment with active
patient route, you avoid these issues. Sometimes management as a whole.
you will hold a fund for longer than you would with The other option is to pick another active fund
perfect hindsight, but in a diversified portfolio, manager, though of course this means you still have
other funds should take up the slack. the possibility of experiencing underperformance.
There’s a real risk here that if you keep moving out
CONSIDER THE MARKET CONTEXT of underperforming funds and into top performers,
It’s also important to consider what’s going you’re selling low and buying high, which can
on in the market and whether that explains have a damaging effect on your wealth over the
underperformance. Fund managers tend to long term. The other risk is that you pull out of
have a certain style, which is to say there are an active fund without any idea where to put
certain types of stocks, sectors or segments of the proceeds, and you end up just sitting in cash.
the market which their investment strategy leads It’s easy to forget to reinvest that money, which
them towards. These could be dividend payers, potentially means missing out on returns as the
smaller companies, or growth stocks, for instance. market rises.
Such styles can fall out of favour and remain
unloved for long periods, which means some DISCLAIMER: AJ Bell owns Shares Magazine. The
forbearance is required if this is the root of fund author (Laith Khalaf) and editor (Tom Sieber) of
underperformance. this article own shares in AJ Bell.
Right now, many fund managers investing
globally or in the US have found it hard to match
the world index, which has been driven higher by
a small clutch of big technology companies. If an By Laith Khalaf
active manager didn’t hold these stocks, or simply AJ Bell Head of Investment Analysis
held less than the index, it would have left the rest
Housebuilders: what’s
holding back the sector and
what could drive a recovery
F
alling mortgage rates, a government
eager to have more homes built, decent Taylor Wimpey
dividends and cheap equity valuations (p)
should, in theory, make housebuilders a
big hit with investors.
Instead, we’ve got a sector where share prices 200
are stuck in a rut. So, what will it take to get shares
motoring again?
Fundamentally, we need new government 150
incentives to fire up the property market, further
interest rate cuts to improve mortgage affordability,
100
and stronger consumer confidence. Two of those
three factors are in motion, while the third is
plausible. 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Year-to-date total
Company 15-year total return 10-year total return return
Disappointing news on the volume of of cost pressures. Extra employment related costs
completions in Barratt Redrow’s (BTRW) latest as a result of the chancellor’s Budget decisions in
update on 15 July, as well as significant charges October 2024 have trickled through the supply
relating to legacy building issues, haven’t helped chain, with companies supplying materials to
sentiment. housebuilders passing on those extra costs.
Between September 2022 and the end of March Housebuilders themselves have also had stomach
2025, buyers of homes in England and Northern higher employment costs directly.
Ireland worth less than £250,000 didn’t pay any MJ Gleeson shares fell in June when it slashed
stamp duty. First-time buyers paid no stamp duty profit forecasts, blaming a slower housing market,
on the first £425,000 when buying a home worth rising build costs and increased sales incentives.
less than £625,000. It also failed to sell a big block of land, thereby
From 1 April, the rates changed whereby buyers having less cash coming into the business than
pay 2% on values between £125,001 and £250,000 previously expected.
and the first-time buyer threshold has fallen to
£300,000. Above these values, the tiered rate
©MJ Gleeson
©Bellway
homeowners looking to move to a different
property.
There are signs of optimism in pockets of the
housebuilding industry among developers and
suppliers. For example, Bellway (BWY) struck a
confident tone in its June trading update, pointing
to ‘good’ levels of customer demand. Brickmaker
Ibstock (IBST) is planning to increase production
capacity, citing signs of recovery in the UK housing
market. Persimmon (PSN) is buying more land and
REASONS TO BE OPTIMISTIC gave an upbeat outlook in May.
There is a reasonable chance that certain The GfK Consumer Confidence index in June
headwinds could fade away and tailwinds to move recorded its second consecutive monthly gain,
to the forefront as the year progresses. driven by a more optimistic view of the economy.
The race to beat stamp duty is likely to have Consumer confidence is an important metric to
distorted near-term earnings for housebuilders, yet track as buying a house is a big financial decision
it should only be a temporary issue. and people won’t commit if they are worried about
The market expects interest rates to fall from their personal finances and job security.
4.25% to 3.5% by early 2026 and that would make The government has a target to build 1.5 million
mortgages much more affordable. It could be the new homes by 2029. Key to achieving this target
catalyst to get more people on the housing ladder is reforming the planning system, removing red
Source: AJ Bell, Company accounts, Marketscreener, consensus analysts’ forecasts, LSEG Refinitiv data, as of 27 June 2025
tap that slows down approval of infrastructure a shake-up of the mortgage market to enable more
projects, and removing obstacles that have stalled people to get on the housing ladder, potentially
new home developments. helping to stoke demand.
While there remains uncertainty as to whether
the government can achieve the goal, its policies CHEAP VERSUS HISTORY
still provide a tailwind for housebuilders to increase Valuations are not expensive across parts of the
output. housebuilding sector relative to history. In boom
The property market has been a priority for times, it’s normal to see housebuilders trade on two
successive governments and this remains the case times net asset value. Today, they trade at or below
today. We’ve seen the Help to Buy scheme followed one-times.
by the launch of the Lifetime ISA and various Investing is all about taking a view on what might
changes to stamp duty along the way, all designed happen next, rather than looking in the rearview
to stimulate demand and facilitate access to the mirror. There is no guarantee that consumer
property market. confidence will continue to improve, inflation
It’s natural to ask when we will get the next comes down, and the Bank of England cuts interest
incentive, and there is chatter about a potential rates in the near-term.
new equity loan scheme. One proposal from the However, it does feel as if the sector is looking
Home Builders Federation bundles up a 5% deposit more interesting and as a key industry in both the
from the customer and a 15% equity loan from FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 indices, it could be worth
the government, including a 1% contribution from keeping a closer eye on what housebuilders say
the developer. from here, and what’s implied by key economic
On 15 July chancellor Rachel Reeves announced data points.
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Ask Rachel: Your retirement questions answered
I am going to assume you have unused annual up, moving onto 2023-24 and 2024-25
allowance from those years as well. As an alternative, you could increase your
personal contributions but you would have to
USE UP THE CURRENT YEAR’S ALLOWANCE FIRST have the relevant UK earnings to ‘justify’ a higher
To use unused annual allowance from previous personal contribution.
years, you must first use up your annual allowance For example, if you earned £29,570, you could
in the current year. If we assume both you and your pay a contribution which, when including tax
employer make the same contributions this tax relief, equalled £29,570. This, in addition to the
year, 2025-26, as you did last year, then you will still employer contribution of £30,430, would use up
have £17,000 left over. your total £60,000 annual allowance.
To use up this £17,000 your employer
contributions could be increased. It’s worth DO YOU HAVE A QUESTION
remembering that to be treated as an allowable ON RETIREMENT ISSUES?
deduction against profits, pension contributions
have to made wholly and exclusively for the Send an email to askrachel@ajbell.co.uk with the
purposes of the business. words ‘Retirement question’ in the subject line. We’ll
If the employer contributions were increased do our best to respond in a future edition of Shares.
by any more than £17,000, then not only would Please note, we only provide information
it use up the annual allowance for this year, but and we do not provide financial advice. If you’re
unsure please consult a suitably qualified financial
any excess could be set against unused annual adviser. We cannot comment on individual
allowance from previous tax years starting with investment portfolios.
three tax years ago (2022-23), and once that is used
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