Polarity-

The concept of polarity in international relations is used to describe the presence

of one or more great powers dominating the international system. The great
powers which have enormous capability are divided into several poles from
different periods. More precisely, “Polarity is about the number of great powers
or polar powers.” It can be seen that the international system tends to anarchy
where there are no rules to control the state’s behaviour. Thus, it encourages the
state as an actor to act freely to increase its capability to be a great power. Then,
the poles appear to describe and also distinguish the status of the state. At first,
the scholars of international relations were inspired by natural science about the
concept of polarity, for instance, the use of words “uni-“, “bi-“, multi.
Furthermore, the scholars created the consensus so that the concept can be
proper from international relations’ perspective. Thereby, there are commonly
three types of polarity. They are one great power or one polar means
unipolarity, two great powers or two poles mean bipolarity, and more than two
great powers or more than two poles are known as multi polarity. From that
explanation, it can be conceived that the concept of polarity has never been a
pure concept and is adapted from different science aspect.
In addition, there are three arguments about the concept of polarity, including
the disparity between great powers and fewer powers. First, unipolarity is a
condition where there is a wide power disparity between the great powers and
all other states. Second, bipolarity is the two great powers in the international
system having an approximately equal position, and there is wide power
disparity with the fewer powers. Third, multipolarity is more than two great
powers which have the approximately equal position, and there is the wide
power disparity between the fewer powers in the international system.” It is
clearly seen that some scholars have a different definition of the concept of
polarity, although the latter explanation is not clear about how much equal
position in bipolar and multipolar conditions.
The capability is an important thing for the great powers to maintain their status.
According to the Correlates of War index (COW), there are six indicators: total
population, urban population, military expenditures, military personnel, energy
consumption, iron and/or steel production. However, most scholars define the
polarity before the end of the Cold War, emphasizing economy and military
power. These capabilities have significant roles to change power from one pole
to the new pole. Furthermore, Waltz also uses population figures and adds
government revenues to determine a state's polar status. In addition, Wayman
and Morgan pointed out that in the condition of bipolarity, the two great powers
control at least 50 percent of the power capabilities. On the other hand, in
multipolarity, the great powers have less than 50 percent of these capabilities.
From that explanation, we can see that the concept of polarity has various ways
to describe the polar powers, especially describing the pole after the Cold War.
Most scholars from the United States stated that the condition was unipolar, but
some scholars argued that the system was divided into multipolar. This paper
will explain more the condition after the Cold War by describing the types of
polarity, such as unipolar, bipolar, and multipolar.

Unipolarity-
Unipolarity is the condition where one state or a great power dominates the
international system. It means that there is only one pole which Wohlforth
pointed out the state has an extensive material capability or too great to be
counterbalanced, such as in economy and military, so that there is no balancing
power. One of the instances in the United States in post-Cold War. There was a
competition before between the two countries, particularly in economy and
military capability. In late 1985, the military expenditures of the Soviet Union
were limited, and it was followed by its economic capability so that the United
States, with its ideology liberalism-capitalism, only became the great power.
There is the advantage from unipolarity moment as Wohlforth said, “the
unipolar system tends to create a peaceful international system and through
hegemony theory and balance of power theory because powerful states foster
international orders that are stable until differential growth in power produces a
dissatisfied state with the capability to challenge the dominant state for
leadership.” Therefore, the presence of great power or only one pole creates an
international system that is more stable and peaceful, also without a significant
competitor. The only great power will maintain its status.
Bipolarity-
Bipolarity is the condition when the poles are divided into two poles or two
superpowers that are more powerful than others in the international system.
According to Wagner, bipolarity is a condition when most states are organized
into two hostile coalitions, or there are only two nuclear superpowers. Hence,
the two states are more powerful than the others. As we know that the balance
of power is easier to achieve in a bipolar system, as there are only two great
powers with approximately equal positions. Some scholars have different
arguments about stability in the concept of polarity. If Wohlforth pointed out
that unipolar is a more stable condition, Kenneth Waltz argued that the bipolar
system is more stable than multipolar. Waltz emphasizes that stability is “the
avoidance of great power war or wars between poles” and he believed if the
wars occurred between two countries, the level of war is smaller under
bipolarity. It means that there is a balance of power between the two great
powers. For Waltz, bipolarity is a condition of only two great powers which act
in the international system. If something occurs, that means “potentially of
concern to both of them.” Due to uncertainty being powerful in multipolar
conditions, it leads the War to occur than in bipolarity system. Bipolarity is well
known after World War II, especially in the late 1960s. There were two
superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union, in the Cold War era. It is
important to note that, at that time, the United States and the Soviet Union had
much more powerful strength than other states, although Bipolar in the Cold
War was a short period. Furthermore, it can be seen that both countries also had
opposed ideologies and different life, such as liberal-capitalism versus
communism-socialism. The armed forces were in the highest state of alert,
amidst an overall economic and military mobilization. Thus, the main
concentration in the world was only for the two countries.

Multipolarity-
Multipolarity is a condition in which more than two great powers or several
poles in the international system. The term multipolarity began to appear in the
1960s and the early 1970s in The New York Times. That term was introduced
by Nixon and Kissinger and was related to their foreign policy. They stated “the
world remained militarily bipolar for the time being, but was quickly moving to
multipolarity in economic and other fields”. Furthermore, Aron also defined
multipolarity as a system with several rival states with more or less similar
resources. It is clearly seen that multipolar occurs when several great powers
have similar capabilities dominating the international system.
One of the instances of multipolarity is after the Cold War until this era. The
international system might be multipolar, although it is still debatable by some
analysts in international relations, it was stated that not all people agreed about
multipolar in international system after the post-Cold War. Moreover, Waltz
emphasized that multipolarity is less stable than bipolarity. In contrast, some of
them who are not from the United States argued that the system is multipolar
with the presence of Russia, China, and Japan. In addition, there are several
potential countries such as India and Brazil in recent time. It can be seen in
Russia and China where that multipolarity has been a central foreign policy goal
concerned by Yeltsin and Putin, as well as for China, multipolarity has been its
foreign policy discourse since the late 1980s. On the other hand, if we use the
indicator of power capability, North Korea also can be a potential great power,
such as having nuclear power as a new indicator in this period.

There are various predictions about the polarity in the forthcoming years. Some
scholars predicted that the system would be bipolar, such as in 2020, there will
be two superpowers between the United States and China. Some scholars
predicted that the world would be multipolar. For instance, in November 2008,
the National Intelligence Council (NIC) published The ‘Global Trends 2025’
report. It reported that the world would be multipolar by the year 2025. The
same prediction from NIC in the 2012 version predicted China to be the largest
economy in the world by 2030. Some scholars argued that the international
system is still unipolar; for example, in the 2008 report, the USA would still
play a prominent role in 2025, but it would no longer be the only global player.
From that explanation, we can see that the poles in the international system
nowadays and in the next few years is still debatable. Not only one type of
polarity but there can be three types of poles to describe great powers that
dominate the system.