Briefing Document: Global Outlook 2025 - Key

Themes and Forecasts

This briefing document synthesizes the main themes, important ideas, and factual predictions for
2025 across various global sectors, drawing upon the provided sources.

I. Geopolitical Landscape & Conflict

A. The Third Nuclear Age and Arms Control: 2025 marks a deepening of the "third nuclear age,"
characterized by "more nuclear weapons, more nuclear-armed states, no limits on their arsenals and
few qualms about threatening to use them."

 Key Driver: The expiration of the New START treaty in February 2026,
with "little prospect of a new arms-control agreement" due to Russia's
suspension of verification provisions and China's lack of engagement.
 Shifting Dynamics: The traditional US-Russia deterrence is evolving
into a more complex, "three-sided rivalry" involving Russia and China,
with additional complications from North Korea and a potentially
nuclear Iran.
 Proliferation Risk: Other nations, including Saudi Arabia, South Korea,
and potentially Ukraine, may pursue nuclear weapons if the US is
perceived as an unreliable protector under a Trump administration.
 Quote: "For the first time in decades, then, nuclear stockpiles will
probably no longer be subject to formal limits."

B. Conflicts and Regional Instability:

 Ukraine War: There is "but one cause for hope: that 2025 could be the
year in which the fighting largely comes to an end" due to both sides
nearing exhaustion and backers preferring a wind-down. Donald
Trump's new administration will prioritize ending the conflict.
However, the outcome hinges on whether Trump pushes Ukraine into a
"lopsided peace deal that leaves it vulnerable to Russia."
 European Response: European governments will attempt to "limit the
damage" from a Trump presidency, appealing for continued US
commitment to NATO and aid to Ukraine. There's a debate over
increased defence spending and joint debt issuance for military funding
within the EU, with Germany potentially considering an "off-books fund
to boost defence spending."
 Quote: "If Mr Trump presses Ukraine to accept territorial losses, but
offers a security guarantee that durably deters Vladimir Putin,
America’s (and Mr Trump’s) credibility will be enhanced. But if he
 forces Ukraine into a lopsided peace deal that leaves it vulnerable to
Russia, Mr Putin will have won."
 Middle East: War will continue to shape the region. The best-case
scenario is a halt to regional conflict, though destruction and
displacement will persist. A potential expansion of fighting could
shatter a fragile détente in the Gulf, largely dependent on the actions of
Ali Khamenei (Iran), Binyamin Netanyahu (Israel), and Donald Trump.
Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, initially pushing for confrontation,
will now "push him to avoid confrontation" with Iran to protect their
economic diversification plans (Vision 2030).
 Myanmar: The junta faces unprecedented pressure, with "defections
and Chinese interference" potentially bringing the army to the brink of
collapse, as seen in 1949. China's shift in stance from weakening the
Tatmadaw to possibly backing them to maintain influence is a critical
factor.
 Sudan: The civil war is expected to "grow even more brutal, complex
and difficult to resolve," with no significant progress foreseen in
ceasefire talks in 2025. The SAF, supported by Russia and Iran, is
reluctant to negotiate with the RSF, which is widely loathed despite its
tactical mobility.
 South China Sea: This region "could become a major flashpoint in
2025." Escalating clashes between Chinese and Philippine coastguard
vessels, particularly around Sabina Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal,
risk drawing in the US. Other countries like Vietnam and Malaysia are
also becoming "more assertive."
 Quote: "China sees the chance to show America’s allies that they cannot
rely on it for help."

C. Defence Spending & Industry:

 Increased Investment: "More than €2bn ($2.2bn) in venture

investment has gone to around 300 defence-related startups in each of
the past three years." Government funding, including NATO’s
Innovation Fund (€1bn) and the European Defence Industry
Programme (€1.5bn), will add to this in 2025.
 NATO Target: Despite increased spending since the Ukraine war, eight
NATO countries will miss the 2% GDP defence spending target, which
Donald Trump will "strongly encourage." Meeting this would add "a
further $45bn a year." NATO will debate a 2.5% target.
 European Fragmentation: Europe's defence market is fragmented
with 27 "Pentagons," making it hard for new entrants. Mario Draghi's
report calls for a "radical overhaul" of funding, procurement, and cross-
border cooperation, a task for the EU's first-ever commissioner for
defence, Andrius Kubilius.
  Innovation Focus: Expect an emphasis on "maintenance-tech" to
extend the life of older systems and a "wave of tie-ups between
incumbents and startups."

D. Migration & Social Issues:

 Increasing Pressure & Backlash: Pressure to migrate is rising due to

factors like gang violence in Haiti and Ecuador, and economic struggles
in Cuba and El Salvador. Simultaneously, a "backlash" against migration
is also increasing.
 "Iron Fist" Model: The success of El Salvador's President Nayib
Bukele's "iron fist" approach to crime, which involves mass
incarceration and human rights concerns but has drastically reduced
homicides, is gaining traction. Crime concerns will shape presidential
elections in Ecuador and Chile in 2025.

II. Global Economy & Business Trends

A. Economic Forecast & Challenges:

 Slow Global Growth: World GDP will grow by "just 2.5%." European
economies will strengthen, but emerging markets will be flat due to
"trade barriers, climate change and technological hurdles."
 Fiscal Constraints: Inflation and interest rates will fall, but "high public
debt and defence budgets will crimp governments’ ability to spend."
 Housing & Property: Housing markets will cause "policymakers and
regulators jitters," with $2.1trn of property loans maturing. House
prices are generally high, though China's dip.
 Trade Tensions: "Geopolitical tensions will weigh on the global
economy," with a "blazing global trade war" expected under a Trump
administration, including American tariffs on Europe.
 Currency Dominance: The US dollar "will remain dominant, defying
China’s efforts to expand foreign use of the yuan."

B. IPO Market Stagnation:

 Continued Slump: Do not expect a "flurry of stockmarket debuts in

2025." Despite buoyant stock markets and company eagerness, the IPO
market has been "dreary ever since a record-breaking splurge in 2021."
 Key Reasons:Interest Rate Uncertainty: Fluctuating bond yields and
uncertainty over the "risk-free" rate make IPOs "hard to price."
 Dislike of Public Scrutiny: Bosses dislike the "onerous" disclosure and
regulatory requirements of public firms, preferring the rapidly growing
and less regulated private capital markets.
  Geopolitics: Wars and potential conflicts create an unpropitious time
to make long-term performance promises required for public listing.
 Quote: "If you are a global boss, now is not a propitious time to make
promises about your firm’s long-term performance. Yet that is what
those floating on the stockmarket must do; so expect them to remain
few in number."

C. India's Economic Ascent:

 Overtaking Japan: India "could overtake Japan to become the second-

biggest economy in Asia and the fourth largest in the world" in 2025.
 Growth Potential: India's population is already larger than China's,
and its economy is likely to grow "significantly faster." Leaders aim for
$5trn GDP by 2028 and $1trn in exports each for goods and services by
2030.
 "China Shock" Beneficiary: India aims to benefit from geopolitical
tensions, with manufacturers "scared by Sino-American tension" seeing
India as a "potential refuge." Apple, for example, will produce "over a
fifth of its iPhones in India by the end of 2025."
 Investment Sustainability: While public investment has driven
growth, its sustainability is questioned as the government aims to trim
its budget deficit and faces pressure for handouts from coalition
partners.

D. Indonesia's Economic Challenges:

 Mediocre Growth: Indonesia's consistent 5% growth rate is

considered "mediocre" for a middle-income country.
 Prabowo's Goals: New President Prabowo Subianto aims for "8%
growth within five years" through increased spending, including a
flagship free lunch program.
 Fiscal Doubts: Financing is uncertain due to potentially "wasteful"
ideas, low tax collection (10% of GDP), and a high proportion of
informally employed workers. Proposed borrowing could breach
existing fiscal restraint rules.
 Lack of Deeper Reforms: Unless "reforms can gain momentum,"
Indonesia’s growth "may remain stuck at around 5%."

III. Technology & Innovation

A. Artificial Intelligence (AI):

 Drug Development Revolution: AI, particularly DeepMind's AlphaFold

models, is transforming drug development by "reducing months of trial-
 and-error experiments to just hours of computation." Startups like
Insilico have achieved rapid drug target identification and molecule
design at a fraction of the usual cost and time.
 Hardware Bottlenecks: Nvidia's Blackwell chip, starting full-scale
production in early 2025, will power "AI factories" but highlights
"bottlenecks—from the making of chips to the construction of data
centres—created by demand for ai-related computational power."
 Soaring Energy Demand: Global power consumption from data
centers could more than double from 2022 levels by 2026, reaching
1,000 TWh. This stresses power grids and necessitates carbon-free
energy sources, leading to plans for restarting nuclear plants and orders
for new reactors.
 Cooling Challenges: New data centers, especially those with Blackwell
GPUs, will rely on "closed-loop liquid cooling," demanding more than
just retrofits.
 Regulatory Scrutiny: Regulators are "circling" AI, with parts of the
EU’s AI Act taking effect in 2025, and the African Union attempting to
forge a common AI strategy.
 Copyright Law Reform: EU, Japan, Israel, and Singapore have
introduced exceptions for using copyrighted material in AI model
training. A "race to the middle" position is likely as countries seek a
balance between innovation and copyright protection.
 Gulf Investment: Gulf states are heavily investing in AI, partnering with
Western tech giants like Microsoft and Google, while also building
commercial and financial linkages with Chinese businesses. Saudi
Arabia is setting up a $40bn AI fund with American VCs.

B. Energy & Green Technology:

 Grid-Scale Storage Revolution: Energy storage is the "fastest-growing

energy technology," driven by the need for stable renewable power for
AI data centers and innovative alternatives to lithium-based batteries.
 Emerging Technologies: Sodium-ion batteries are a "promising
alternative," with China's HiNa leading large-scale manufacturing in
2025. Iron-air chemistry batteries (Form Energy) will start operations
in 2025.
 Gravity-based Systems: Energy Vault is testing a pumped-water and
lithium battery hybrid system in a mineshaft, and has an agreement to
embed gravity-based systems into skyscrapers. India's Greenko plans
50GWh of modernized pumped-hydro storage by 2025.
 Compressed Gas: Italy’s Energy Dome stores CO2 under pressure, with
US construction starting in 2025. Canada's Hydrostor uses air, with
construction starting in Australia.
  Green Hydrogen Dominance: China is poised to "dominate the next
phase of green innovation" in green hydrogen, making 40% of the
world's electrolysers more cheaply. Inner Mongolia plans 480,000
tonnes of green hydrogen in 2025. Shenzhen aims to be China's
"hydrogen capital."
 Fusion Power Getting Closer: Several firms are pursuing alternative
fusion approaches, with test reactors or test-beds (General Fusion,
Helion, Zap Energy) expected to be operational in 2025. China's ENN
plans to fuse hydrogen and boron.
 Green Policies & Metals Prices: Green policies will drive global metals
prices "7.5% higher" in 2025 due to demand for car batteries, cables,
and infrastructure, boosting copper, steel, iron ore, aluminium, and zinc.
Nickel, cobalt, and lithium will rise slowly. Gold will remain a "safe
haven."
 Electric Vehicles (EVs): China will achieve half the world's EV sales in
2025. Chinese EV-makers like BYD are expanding globally. Western
firms are developing cheaper plug-ins, but "higher tariff barriers for
China’s EVs will complicate green-car plans." Supply chain splintering
will lead to new chip and battery plants.
 Chinese EV Features: Chinese EVs offer innovative features like
rotating touchscreens, unique interior designs, "tank turn" and
"floating" modes, minimalist cabins with advanced autonomous driving,
and integration with smart home devices (Xiaomi's SU7 Max). Chinese
buyers are younger and "tech-savvy."

IV. Social & Cultural Trends

A. Ultra-Short Dramas Flourishing:

 New Media Format: China's "micro-dramas" or "ultra-short dramas"

are flourishing globally, described as "soaps on steroids."
 Market Growth: Micro-drama apps have accumulated "nearly 55m
downloads and $170m in revenue overseas." This format is poised for
"long-term success."

B. Cancer Vaccines on the Horizon:

 Pivotal Moment in 2025: After decades of disappointment, cancer

vaccines are showing "renewed promise" due to "advances in mRNA
technology and personalised medicine."
 Melanoma Vaccine: Moderna and Merck's mRNA-4157 melanoma
vaccine is performing well in trials and "could approve the vaccine" by
the FDA in 2025.
  Fast-tracking Trials: The NHS’s Cancer Vaccine Launch Pad in Britain
aims to "fast-track thousands of patients into trials for mRNA-based
personalised vaccines for colorectal, pancreatic and melanoma cancers."

C. Jane Austen's 250th Anniversary:

 Global Commemoration: The 250th anniversary of Jane Austen's birth

(December 16th, 1775) will be "widely commemorated" globally,
solidifying her unchallenged status as the "greatest romance novelist of
all time."
 Events and Exhibitions: Celebrations will include costume balls,
academic symposiums, a permanent exhibition on her creative process
at her last residence, festivals, an eight-day birthday celebration, new
book publications, and a television show ("Miss Austen").

D. Cultural Heritage Restitution:

 Accelerating Trend: The restitution of cultural heritage is "racing

ahead in 2025."
 Parthenon Marbles: A "long-term loan" of the Parthenon Marbles from
the British Museum to Greece, potentially with reciprocal loans, is seen
as the "most realistic outcome," despite Greece's public rejection of
anything less than full ownership. This could model a "lending library"
approach for the museum's extensive collection.
 Broader Restitutions: Restitution has become a "regular event," with
items returned to Mediterranean countries, Cambodia, and Nigeria
(Benin bronzes from German, American, and some British institutions).

V. Environment & Infrastructure

A. Climate Change & Environmental Modification:

 Rising Temperatures: 2025 is expected to be "one of the coolest years

for decades to come," highlighting the continued upward trend in global
temperatures.
 Solar Geoengineering: This "another form of environmental
modification" could cool the planet by "reflecting incoming sunlight
back into space." Injecting "shiny particles into the stratosphere might
be a quite feasible way of doing this."
 Risks: It is considered "the very definition of hubris," with wide-
ranging physical, chemical, and biological effects. Its "indirect effects on
human affairs might be yet more worrying," including the potential for
one country to dictate the level of modification and a reduction in
emissions reduction efforts.
  ENMOD Treaty: The Environmental Modification Convention
(ENMOD), though not conceived for climate change, "might still play a
useful role in addressing it" by reconvening its signatories.
 Quote: "Solar geoengineering... would cool the planet by reflecting
incoming sunlight back into space before it can do any warming."

B. Infrastructure & Connectivity:

 Green-Driven Investment: "Environmental goals stimulate

infrastructure spending around the world," with gross fixed investment
climbing to "almost $28trn, a quarter of global GDP." Much of this will
flow into renewable energy.
 Transport Lag: Transport infrastructure will "lag," despite a shift to
greener travel. Europe will see a "renaissance in its railways." India will
build "close to 13,000km" of roads.
 China's Global Reach: China will "expand ports in Africa and open one
in Peru, shoring up trade routes—and its military might."
 Internet Access: Progress on fixed-internet service will be slow in
some developing nations due to foreign-exchange shortages and
infrastructure theft. International connectivity relies heavily on "subsea
cables," facing risks from conflicts, leading to increased government
investment (e.g., France buying Nokia's subsea-cable business, Vietnam
adding new cables). Satellite internet services (OneWeb, StarLink) may
offer more help.
 Data Centers & Power Grids: The rise of data centers will "strain
power grids." Some countries, like the Netherlands, have curbed data-
center construction.

C. Volcanic Eruption Preparedness:

 Underpreparedness: The world is "woefully unprepared" for a large

volcanic eruption, despite a "one-in-six chance of such an eruption... this
century."
 Monitoring Gap: "Far more resources go into monitoring the smaller
risk from asteroids than into volcano monitoring."
 Calls for Action: Experts call for more sensors, a dedicated volcano-
monitoring satellite, and increased preparedness. Concern is growing
for volcanoes in Iceland, Italy, Indonesia, and the Philippines.
 Quote: "A really big eruption would have a global impact."

VI. Political Developments

A. Poland's Presidential Election:
  Key Test: The presidential election in 2025 will be a significant test for
the new government under Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who has faced
resistance from President Andrzej Duda on various legislative matters.
 Duda's Vetoes: Duda has used his veto power, for example, against
parts of the budget, a law allowing over-the-counter access to the
morning-after pill, and new ambassadorial appointments.

B. Germany's Shift to the Right:

 New Government: Under a potential new government led by Friedrich

Merz, Germany will move to the right.
 Debt Brake Debate: An early test will be the "debt brake," a
constitutional provision limiting public borrowing. Loosening it would
allow for "fresh public investment in infrastructure and defence" and
potentially "boost aid to Ukraine."
 Assertiveness in EU: A Merz-led government is expected to "restore a
German assertiveness" in EU matters, though it may not always align
with other capitals' preferences (e.g., unlikely to agree to joint EU
defence borrowing).

C. Asian Democracy in Question:

 India: While the Supreme Court has acted to protect minorities, Prime
Minister Modi faces increasing criticism from the Hindu-nationalist RSS.
State elections suggest Modi is "less of a vote-winner" on local issues.
 Bangladesh: The process of establishing a stable society continues
under interim leader Muhammad Yunus after Sheikh Hasina's exit.
Tensions with India persist due to attacks on minorities and changes in
import regulations.
 Indonesia: President Prabowo Subianto, a former general accused of
atrocities, has taken office. His large cabinet and the arrest of an
opposition politician raise concerns about "authoritarian instincts." The
influence of his predecessor, Joko Widodo, through his son (the vice-
president), also weakens institutions and raises concerns about
dynastic politics.
 Quote: "It is not just the fact that Mr Prabowo may have more
authoritarian instincts that makes his recent elevation to the presidency
worrying. It is also because he is likely to be overshadowed by Jokowi,
who came to power in 2014 promising to oppose the dynastic politics of
old."

VII. Space & Security

A. War in Space:
  Growing Threat: The idea of war in space is "increasingly, no longer
science fiction."
 Nuclear Space Weapon: Warnings about Russia developing a new
space weapon involving a "nuclear warhead that can be detonated in
orbit to knock out satellites" are causing "widespread alarm."
 Impact: Such a detonation would affect the "thousands of satellites in
orbit" and create hazardous orbital debris.
 Anti-Satellite Capabilities: America, China, India, and Russia have
tested various anti-satellite capabilities, including ground-based
missiles and "nesting doll" satellites.
 Quote: "An orbiting nuclear weapon would be much cruder and much
more devastating; its main value would be as a threat."

B. Airspace Restrictions:

 Increasing Disruption: Airspace warnings have "proliferated in recent

years" and are lasting longer, leading to "more disruption."
 Types of Restrictions:Country Closures: Rare but significant, e.g.,
Ukraine, Sudan, and reciprocal closures between Russia and Western
countries, forcing longer and more expensive routes for airlines.
 Airspace Warnings: More common and usually temporary, but
increasing in number and duration, e.g., German authorities listing 17
countries as "hazardous."
 Quote: "Every fresh escalation in the Middle East causes shivers in
airline headquarters the world over."

This briefing aims to provide a concise yet comprehensive overview of the critical themes and
forecasts for 2025, derived from the provided source material.