MKT30018

Assignment 2 - Trend Report

2024 HE Semester (Sep)
Submission date: October 25, 2024
Submitter:
Nguyen Ngoc Duy (ID: 103805347)
 Executive Summary
The worldwide jewelry business is transitioning substantially, especially with the increasing
popularity of lab-grown diamonds, which are currently around 80% less expensive than real
diamonds. This market shift has resulted in two separate customer segments: traditional
purchasers who want natural diamonds for their perceived prestige and emotional worth,
notably in bridal jewelry, and value-conscious consumers who choose lab-grown equivalents for
fashion and self-gifting.
Environmental concerns, technological breakthroughs in diamond manufacturing, and shifting
consumer values are all significant industry factors. The trend is particularly noticeable in North
America, where lab-grown diamonds are expected to account for more than half of engagement
rings by 2024. Natural diamonds remain popular in Asian markets because of their cultural
relevance and heritage value.
The analysis of customer profiles indicates two key segments: "Legacy Seekers," who appreciate
tradition and exclusivity, and "Conscious Investors," who value environmental responsibility.
Both groups have aspirational touchpoints focused on authenticity, craftsmanship, and social
responsibility, but their purchase impulses differ dramatically.
This analysis identifies two key market opportunities: the "Legacy Luxe Collection," a quick-to-
market line of premium natural diamond jewelry aimed at traditional consumers, and the
"EcoDiamonds Reserve," a long-term initiative featuring blockchain-verified, carbon-neutral
natural diamonds for environmentally conscious luxury buyers. These prospects take advantage
of the growing distinction between natural and lab-grown diamonds while meeting specific
customer wants in an ever-changing market scenario.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... 2
I. Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 4
II. The Trend Funnel .................................................................................................................. 4
1. Trend Identity.................................................................................................................... 4
2. Trend Drivers ................................................................................................................... 10
a. Political Factors ........................................................................................................... 10
b. Economics Factors ....................................................................................................... 10
c. Social Factors............................................................................................................... 11
d. Technological Factors .................................................................................................. 11
e. Legal Factors................................................................................................................ 11
f. Environmental Factors ................................................................................................ 11
3. Target Consumers ........................................................................................................... 12
4. Aspirational Touch Points ................................................................................................ 13
5. Trend Location ................................................................................................................ 14
6. Opportunities .................................................................................................................. 15
a. “Legacy Luxe Collection” ............................................................................................. 15
b. “EcoDiamonds Reserve” .............................................................................................. 15
III. Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 16
References .................................................................................................................................. 17
 I. Introduction
In an ever-changing market, trend forecasting is vital for companies to remain competitive and
innovative. Foreseeing changes in customer behavior and preferences is crucial in the retail
industry since trends may swiftly impact demand dynamics. The trend funnel framework is a
valuable trend forecasting tool that walks marketers through an orderly process of detecting and
evaluating trends, ultimately leading to the creation of new products or services. The funnel is
separated into six key areas: trend identity, trend drivers, target customers, aspirational touch
points, trend location, and opportunities. Businesses can leverage these zones to convert client
knowledge into tangible solutions (Raymond, 2010).
The retail business, particularly in categories like jewelry and fashion, has lately seen substantial
changes. The emergence of lab-grown diamonds has caused a dramatic shift in the jewelry sector.
These manufactured diamonds have grown in popularity due to their affordability and
sustainability credentials (Bagathi et al., 2021), making them appealing to younger and more
budget-conscious consumers, particularly in the fashion and self-gifting categories (Pandora's
lab-grown collection is a prime example) (Gordon-Smith & Devlin, 2024). Despite this, natural
diamonds remain popular in the luxury and wedding sectors, where their perceived worth and
scarcity are highly valued. As lab-grown diamonds become more accessible, the natural diamond
sector is being recast as a sign of high-status commitment, as highlighted by industry giants such
as De Beers reviving campaigns like "A Diamond Is Forever" (Meirovich, 2024).
This report will concentrate on the jewelry industry, especially rebalancing the gemstone market
as lab-grown diamonds become more widely available. How this transformation impacts
customer behavior, drives innovation, and opens up new opportunities in the retail industry for
both lab-grown and natural diamond sectors will be examined using the trend funnel.

II. The Trend Funnel

1. Trend Identity
The widening gap between lab-grown and natural diamonds is driving the recalibration of the
gem market. Lab-grown diamonds are becoming more accessible and numerous, with costs much
lower than natural diamonds. This transition is causing a comeback in demand for smaller, higher-
quality natural diamonds, particularly in the romance and wedding sectors, where natural stones'
perceived rarity and status have emotional and symbolic significance. Meanwhile, lab-grown
diamonds appeal to budget-conscious customers, particularly in the fashion and self-gifting
markets.
This trend may be identified using a variety of important indicators. First, the price of lab-grown
diamonds has been cut by around 90% compared to actual diamonds, significantly influencing
client preferences (Sor, 2024).
Image 1: Comparison of Lab-Grown vs. Natural Diamond Prices (October 2024)
Image 2: Global LGD Supply from 2018 to 2024
 Image 3: LGD wholesale price compared to cost of production from 2018 to 2024

Furthermore, natural diamond (LGD) sales are projected to grow at a compound annual growth
rate (CAGR) of 2-4% over the next decade, emphasizing the natural diamond market's need to
differentiate itself via perceived prestige and exclusivity (Rodrigues et al., 2024).
 Image 4: Demand for Natural Diamond from 2000 to 2032

Furthermore, industry heavyweights like De Beers have taken aggressive measures to shape the
market. They have responded to the advent of lab-grown diamonds by recreating historic
advertisements such as 'A Diamond Is Forever,' which emphasizes natural diamonds' cultural and
emotional value.
 Image 5: De Beers’ 'A Diamond is Forever' Campaign

Simultaneously, sustainability and affordability have emerged as significant selling advantages

for lab-grown alternatives, with companies such as Pandora using these features to appeal to
younger, more environmentally concerned populations.
 Image 6: Pandora's 'For All Who Love' Campaign

The cohabitation of natural and lab-grown diamonds alters the jewelry sector, with customer
choices increasingly separated by status, sustainability, and cost.
In summary, the gem market is recalibrating as lab-grown diamonds become more inexpensive,
driving demand for smaller, more prestigious natural diamonds for wedding and love
engagements. Lab-grown stones appeal to fashion-conscious and cost-conscious customers.

2. Trend Drivers
a. Political Factors
Politics, particularly legislation governing ethical sourcing and human rights, have a significant
impact on the diamond business. Governments and international organizations, such as the
Kimberley Process Certification Scheme (KPCS), impose tight laws to prohibit the sale of "conflict
diamonds," supporting ethically sourced gems (Grant & Taylor, 2004). With these pressures,
natural diamond companies emphasize ethical and conflict-free sourcing, appealing to
consumers with strong social values (Bieri & Boli, 2011). Meanwhile, lab-grown diamonds
frequently appeal to consumers who value ethical choices, decreasing the impact of politically
sensitive concerns on their purchase decisions. These growing political concerns indirectly push
customers toward lab-grown diamonds, resulting in a more inclusive and transparent business.

b. Economics Factors
The considerable price difference between lab-grown and natural diamonds is a key economic
reason behind this movement. The average lab-grown diamond is around 80% less expensive
than its natural equivalent, appealing to budget-conscious and younger consumers seeking cost
without compromising luxury (Gordon-Smith & Devlin, 2024). As inflation affects worldwide
discretionary spending, customers may look to lab-grown alternatives for economic viability,
notably for non-bridal purchases or self-gifting events (Shan, 2024). On the other hand, natural
diamonds continue to attract a market sector that prioritizes long-term investment and
perceived grandeur since they are frequently seen as having higher intrinsic and market worth.

c. Social Factors
Social factors, such as a push for sustainability and luxury, greatly influence the gem market.
Many customers, particularly millennials and Generation Z, whom highly value ecologically
responsible and ethical purchasing methods. These organizations see lab-grown diamonds as a
more sustainable and socially responsible alternative to conventional gemstones, sometimes
connected with severe environmental and social consequences (Ali, 2016). This value change is
evident in luxury marketing efforts by firms like Pandora, which stress inclusion and affordability
to appeal to ethical buyers. On the other hand, natural diamonds continue to entice customers
who see them as emblems of tradition, longevity, and dedication (De Beers Group, 2019).

d. Technological Factors
Technological advancements in lab-grown diamond manufacture have significantly boosted the
quality and cost of these stones. Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) and High-Pressure High-
Temperature (HPHT) technologies have advanced, allowing manufacturers to generate bigger,
higher-clarity stones at much lower prices (Ashfold et al., 2020). These technologies' accessibility
allows lab-grown diamonds to compete with genuine diamonds in terms of beauty and quality,
altering consumer demand even further. Technological transparency, such as blockchain
monitoring for ethical sourcing, enables customers to verify product origins, and there is a
growing need for lab-grown alternatives (Choi, 2019).

e. Legal Factors
Regulations governing gem certification and disclosure also impact the market, with tight
standards for reporting lab-grown status to buyers. Organizations like the Gemological Institute
of America (GIA) have set clear grading and labeling standards for lab-grown diamonds,
increasing market trust. Legal distinctions between lab-grown and natural diamonds enable
customers to make more informed decisions while reducing market misunderstanding. Such
openness fosters confidence, particularly among customers who value authenticity, prompting
them to adopt lab-grown diamonds for environmental or fashion goals while perceiving natural
diamonds as rare, certified assets.

f. Environmental Factors
Environmental sustainability is a major motivator, particularly as the environmental impact of
diamond mining becomes more apparent. Natural diamond mining has a considerable
environmental effect, ranging from energy use to ecological damage. Lab-grown diamonds, on
the other hand, are advertised as environmentally benign, using less energy and leaving a lower
environmental imprint (Zhdanov et al., 2021). This appeal to environmentally concerned
customers boosts the demand for lab-grown diamonds in non-bridal categories. However, as
consumers grow more aware of both production and environmental implications, businesses
dedicated to sustainable mining processes for natural diamonds may be able to attract a segment
of environmentally conscientious customers.

3. Target Consumers
Elements Description
Name Emma Clarke
Job Financial Advisor
Gender Female
Age 29
Education MBA
Marital Status Engaged
Location Downtown
Trusted Sources Social medias, newspaper, friends and relatives.
A Day in Life Emma starts her day reading the latest financial news, attends client
meetings, and values social gatherings in the evenings. On weekends,
she spends time with her family and fiancé, often visiting luxury
boutiques for wedding planning.
Values Tradition, exclusivity, ethical sourcing, sustainability
Hobbies Wine tasting, fine dining, traveling, art collection
Brands Hermès, Louis Vuitton, Tesla, Rolex
Persona 1: The Legacy Seekers

Emma's fascination with genuine diamonds stems from her opinion of them as a high-status,
meaningful statement of commitment. As a traditionalist, she values natural diamonds for their
historical and emotional significance, regarding them as financial and sentimental long-term
investments (Naas, 2024). Natural diamond companies, such as De Beers, promote ethical
sourcing and conservation programs that correspond to her ideas on sustainability, influencing
her perception of natural diamonds as a better option for her engagement (Schulte et al., 2021).
Emma represents a demographic that values heritage and luxury, viewing natural diamonds as
timeless and unique.
 Elements Description
Name James Wong
Job Environmental Consultant
Gender Male
Age 37
Education Bachelor’s in Environmental Science
Marital Status Married
Location Suburbs
Trusted Sources Research journals, industry reports, newspapers, family and friends
A Day in Life James spends most of his day working on sustainability projects, often
visiting local parks in his free time. Evenings are spent researching or
engaging in community events focused on environmental awareness.
Values Environmental stewardship, authenticity, minimalism, ethical
consumerism
Hobbies Hiking, reading, sustainable gardening, eco-friendly architecture
Brands Patagonia, Allbirds, REI, Whole Foods
Persona 2: The Concious Investor

James is drawn to natural diamonds mostly because of their long-term attractiveness, provided
they are sourced responsibly. Although lab-grown diamonds are consistent with his
environmental ideals, James recognizes that natural diamonds from businesses dedicated to
decreasing mining effects have a distinct value and meaning for special occasions. As someone
who values authenticity, he views natural diamonds as superior due to their geological origin and
scarcity. Ethical methods such as carbon-neutral mining and transparency in diamond sourcing
align with his environmental ideals, leading him to invest in natural diamonds for their emotional
importance and environmental balance (Cartier, 2020).

4. Aspirational Touch Points

The aspirational touchpoints for Emma Clarke, the "Legacy Seeker," and James Wong, the
"Conscious Investor," are defined by shared values of timelessness, authenticity, quality
craftsmanship, ethical responsibility, and personal symbolism. Emma and James gravitate
towards products and services that go beyond functionality, serving as reflections of their values
and life perspectives. Emma expresses her affinity for premium legacy brands such as Rolex and
Hermès, which stress durability and exclusivity. Emma's attraction to heritage is consistent with
her preference for products that are not only high-quality but also represent success and timeless
style (Wang et al., 2024). On the other hand, James prefers labels like Patagonia that promote
sustainability and authenticity, strengthening his commitment to eco-conscious purchasing. Both
appreciate things that resist the fleeting nature of trends, highlighting a more significant
consumer shift toward commodities that have value throughout generations (Balasubramanian
& Sheykhmaleki, 2024).
Authenticity and exclusivity are important factors in Emma and James' product selections, albeit
in different situations. Emma is drawn to premium objects that feel unique and unusual, which
reflects her desire for items that represent her accomplishments. Brands like Louis Vuitton and
Tesla meet this demand with restricted collections and a reputation for high quality. On the other
side, James achieves exclusivity by aligning with niche, sustainable businesses like REI, which
appeal to his interest in minimalist, nature-focused experiences while avoiding over-
commercialized or mass-produced things. The effect of these companies on their selections is
clear, emphasizing the importance of branding in consumer decisions.
Another key concern is high-quality craftsmanship. Both types prioritize items that need
painstaking attention to detail and high-quality materials. Emma's penchant for Rolex watches
indicates her need for well-made products, whereas James' preference for Allbirds, with its eco-
friendly materials and ethical manufacture, shows his environmental ideals. This shared quest for
perfection indicates their aversion to disposable, low-quality items, which is catching up in bigger
luxury and eco-conscious sectors (Linly, 2024).
Both personas' product preferences are impacted by their sense of ethical responsibility. Emma
prefers ethically sourced diamonds because they reflect her commitment to social responsibility,
whereas James frequently selects items that encourage transparency in sourcing, such as Whole
Foods. This shared commitment represents a trend of organizations with clear, ethical
procedures that appeal to conscientious customers (Kang & Hustvedt, 2013).
Finally, things with personal meaning carry significant value for both. Emma regards natural
diamonds as symbols of success that are firmly ingrained in her self-image, whereas James selects
goods that show his environmental commitment, such as sustainable clothing. These items
reflect their greater convictions and sense of identity, demonstrating a shift toward products that
suit consumer requirements while embodying deeper, aspirational ideals (Kour, 2024).

5. Trend Location
The trend of gem market recalibration from lab-grown to natural diamonds is influencing the
global market, with noteworthy swings in North America, Europe, and Asia. According to industry
forecasts, lab-grown diamonds will account for more than half of engagement rings in the United
States by 2024 (Salmon, 2024), while demand for natural diamonds is increasing due to their
symbolic importance and perceived worth (Frontiere, 2024). Lab-grown diamond prices have
plummeted by about 80% compared to real stones; they are increasingly appealing to fashion-
conscious and budget-conscious consumers, but natural diamonds remain desirable for high-
commitment purchases such as bridal jewelry (Young, 2024).
In North America, the trend is evident through a consumer base favoring natural diamonds as
marital commitment markers. Luxury brands, including De Beers, have responded with targeted
campaigns, reinforcing the intrinsic value of natural diamonds.
In Asian markets such as China and India, the trend is nuanced by cultural attitudes toward
jewelry as a symbol of wealth and heritage, with natural diamonds still holding significant appeal
for traditional and familial milestones. The increasing availability of lab-grown diamonds provides
a budget-friendly option; however, natural diamonds' aspirational value and cultural resonance
continue to draw consumers, especially among older generations and affluent buyers (Allied
Market Research, 2024). In these regions, local campaigns by luxury brands promoting ethically
sourced natural diamonds reflect broader shifts towards products perceived as both prestigious
and responsible, aligning with global trends in luxury (Powell, 2021).
In summary, this trend is manifesting globally, but with distinctive consumer drivers in each
region. North American and European markets focus on ethical sourcing and luxury, while Asian
markets balance cultural heritage with new consumer segments favoring affordability. This
dynamic is reshaping the global jewelry market, establishing natural diamonds as symbols of
commitment and lab-grown diamonds as accessible luxury for diverse consumer needs.

6. Opportunities
a. “Legacy Luxe Collection”
This quick-to-market product line emphasizes the enduring value and symbolic heritage of
natural diamonds. It consists of curated engagement rings and wedding bands with smaller, high-
quality natural diamonds designed to capture the essence of timeless romance. This collection
would position natural diamonds as the more sentimental, high-status option, countering the
mass-market appeal of lab-grown diamonds and drawing on nostalgia and exclusivity, much like
De Beers’ iconic “A Diamond Is Forever” campaign. The “Legacy Luxe Collection” is crafted to
appeal to couples valuing traditional symbolism, mainly targeting North American and European
consumers who associate natural diamonds with authenticity and commitment.
The “Legacy Luxe Collection” taps the resurging demand for natural diamonds by emphasizing
timeless luxury and heritage. The collection would consist of smaller but premium-quality natural
diamonds, ideal for engagement and bridal jewelry. Positioned to meet immediate demand, this
collection counters the affordability of lab-grown diamonds by focusing on the exclusivity and
perceived permanence of natural gems. With lab-grown diamond prices down by roughly 80%
from natural stones, the “Legacy Luxe Collection” capitalizes on natural diamonds’ reputation as
heirloom-quality investments. The campaign will use storytelling around natural diamonds’
journey from origin to the ring, promoting transparency and ethical sourcing, resonating with
consumers who value authenticity.

b. “EcoDiamonds Reserve”
This long-term opportunity envisions a sustainable, transparent diamond brand emphasizing
ethical sourcing for future-minded consumers. “EcoDiamonds Reserve” would comprise certified
carbon-neutral natural diamonds from mines committed to sustainable practices. Each piece
would come with blockchain-verified provenance, allowing consumers to trace its origins. This
venture is well-suited for launch within 2-5 years as natural diamonds further differentiate on
sustainability and exclusivity. Positioned to capture Asia’s and North America’s environmentally
conscious consumers, the “EcoDiamonds Reserve” line would engage luxury buyers who balance
prestige with ethical responsibility.
“EcoDiamonds Reserve” appeals to a future-oriented market segment that views natural
diamonds as both an investment in quality and an ethical statement. This product line would
work to combat the lab-grown market’s environmental appeal by certifying each diamond as
carbon-neutral and ethically sourced. Blockchain technology would enable consumers to verify
their diamonds’ origins, meeting a growing demand for sustainability transparency. This line
could draw in discerning consumers from regions like Asia, where cultural values still uphold
natural diamonds as symbols of prosperity, and North America, where ethical sourcing has grown
to influence luxury purchases.

III. Conclusion
The trend funnel framework provides a structured approach to analyzing the jewelry market's
evolving dynamics. By focusing on lab-grown and natural diamonds, businesses can better
understand how these two sectors cater to diverse consumer values, such as affordability,
sustainability, and tradition. Through targeted marketing and branding efforts, the jewelry
industry can create more personalized experiences that meet distinct consumer needs.
As companies like De Beers and Pandora continue to adjust their strategies to appeal to
environmentally conscious and luxury-driven customers, they set the stage for a market where
natural and lab-grown diamonds coexist, catering to different consumer motivations and values.
By leveraging the trend funnel framework, industry stakeholders can better forecast changes in
consumer behavior and seize new opportunities that arise from the diamond industry's ongoing
transformation.
(3211 words)
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