ME/NRE 4725 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (Elective)
Catalog Description
Introduction to a wide range of probabilistic risk analysis and probabilistic design methods
for mechanical systems. Topics covered are probabilistic description, sampling methods,
risk assessment, and reliability-based design.
Course information
• prerequisites and co-requisites* MATH 3670 or ISYE 3770
• (3-0-0-3) 3 hours of lecture per week, 3 credit hours
Textbook
• Seung-Kyum Choi, Robert A. Canfield, and Ramana V. Grandhi, Reliability-based
Structural Design, Springer, 2007.
• Other references:
- Modarres, M., Risk Analysis in Engineering: Techniques, Tools, and Trends, CRC
Press
- Ang, and Tang, Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design, Wiley
- Haldar, A., and S. Mahadevan, Probability, Reliability, and Statistical Methods in
Engineering Design, Wiley, 2000
- Melchers R.E., Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Wiley, 1999
Course coordinator
Dr. Seung-Kyum Choi
Topics Covered
1) Basic probabilistic descriptions
2) Monte Carlo simulation/Latin hypercube sampling
3) Regression / Analysis of variance
4) Failure modes
5) Probabilistic risk assessment (Levels I, II, and III)
6) System reliability analysis (fault/event tree analysis)
7) Regulation and risk management
8) First/Second-order reliability method
9) Risk-informed decision making.
Course Objectives:
Objective 1: To provide knowledge about probabilistic analysis and risk assessment
techniques for applications of mechanical engineering systems
Objective 2: To teach students how to identify, model, simulate, and integrate
risk/reliability constraints in engineering design processes
Objective 3: To familiarize students with the fundamentals of modern computer
techniques in risk/reliability estimation
Course Outcomes:
Outcome 1: Students will demonstrate understanding of fundamentals of probabilistic
analysis and risk assessment methods for mechanical engineering systems.
Outcome 2: Students will demonstrate the ability to mathematically model risk/reliability
constraints in various engineering problems using a unified approach.
Outcome 3: Students will demonstrate their ability to use existing computer-based
techniques and algorithms for the analysis and design of mechanical systems with the
consideration of uncertainty.