Final Project
Final Project
A Mathematical Perspective”
Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements
for the award of the degree of
MASTER OF SCIENCE
IN
MATHEMATICS
By
Sabiya Ali 25999903
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CERTIFICATE
2
ACKNOWLEGEMENT
The success and final outcome of this project required a lot of guidance and
assistance from many people and we are extremely fortunate to have got this all along
the completion of our project work. Whatever we have done is only due to such
guidance and assistance and we would not forget to thank them. We respect and thank
our project supervisor Dr. Nazida Sheikh for giving us an opportunity to do this
project work and providing us all support and guidance. We are extremely grateful
to her for providing such a nice support and guidance.
Our sincere thanks and appreciation to Prof. Tariq Ahmad Shikari, Director Jammu
and Kashmir Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Srinagar for providing necessary
support. We offer our grateful thanks to our family for always encouraging us in
difficult times. They have always been a source of power and encouragement for us.
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CONTENTS
CHAPTER PARTICULARS PAGE
NO.
ABSTRACT 05
05 Conclusion 53
Bibliography
Abstract
6
epidemiology, ecology, genetics, neuroscience, and cellular biology.
It contributes to solving real world problems like predicting the
spread of diseases, understanding ecosystem dynamics, optimising
drug delivery systems, and even guiding conservation efforts.
In summary, mathematical biology provides a structured and rigorous
framework for exploring life sciences. It empowers scientists and
researchers to go beyond empirical observations and build a
mathematical understanding of life processes, ultimately leading to
more accurate predictions, better decision making, and innovative
solutions to biological challenges.
= RN
where,
N= population size.
R= growth rate.
ii. Logistic growth model:
8
Two species competing for the same resource can be modelled using
modified logistic equations, showing coexistence or extinction
outcomes.
2. Epidemiology:
Epidemiology is the study of how diseases spread, persist, and can
be controlled in populations. Mathematical biology powerful
toolkit to model, analyse and predict the spread of infectious
diseases. These models help public health authorities design
effective intervention strategies and understand the dynamics of
epidemics.
where,
S = number of susceptible individuals
I = number of infectious individuals
R = number of recovered (immune)
individuals
9
b = transmission rate
d = recovery rate
10
are generated through ion channels and “Fitzhugh Nagumo model”
which is a simplified version used to study excitation and
oscillations in neurons.
11
Mathematical biology links phenotypes (observable traits) to
genotypes (gene combinations) by using linear models and
statistical genetics to estimate heritability, predict trait distribution,
design breeding programs.
5. Molecular and cellular biology:
Mathematical biology plays a vital role in molecular and cellular
biology by helping scientists’ model, quantify and predict the
behaviour of complex biological systems at microscopic scales.
Here’s a breakdown of how math contributes to understanding
molecules and cells;
i. Modelling biochemical reactions:
At the molecular level, math is used to model chemical reactions
inside cells. Its key tools include;
a. Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) to model reaction
kinetics (e.g., enzyme activity, gene regulation).
b. Michaelis Menten kinetics for enzyme catalysed reactions.
Mass action kinetics for general chemical reactions.
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Math helps to describe how populations of organisms grow, shrink
or stabilizes over time by using some models like Exponential and
Logistic Growth models which describes population growth with
and without limits.
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6) Graph theory (gene networks, food webs, disease spread)
7) Optimization (drug dosing, ecosystem management)
8) Numerical methods (solving models computationally)
9) Machine learning (Bioinformatics, diagnostics)
10) Probability theory (evolution, epidemiology,
molecular biology)
1.4 Conclusion:
Thus, we can say mathematical biology plays a crucial role in
modern science by providing a quantitative approach in
understanding the complexity of life. As biological data becomes
increasingly abundant and detailed, the integration of mathematical
tools will be ever more essential in uncovering the mechanisms
behind biological processes and solving real world problems in
health, ecology and biotechnology.
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Chapter II
2.1 Mathematical Modelling:
Mathematical modelling is a powerful tool used to represent real
world systems, phenomena, or problems through mathematical
language and structures. It involves the translation of physical, social,
or biological situations into mathematical form to analyse, interpret,
and make predictions or decisions.
1. Deterministic models:
The deterministic models are a type of mathematical model where
the outcome is completely determined by the initial conditions and
the rules of the model - there is no randomness involved. In simple
words, a deterministic model gives the same result every time we
run it with the same starting conditions. It assumes that everything
is predictable and nothing happens by chance.
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For example, if we have a model that predicts how a population
grows overtime and we start with 100 people, a growth rate of 5%
and no other changes, then the population size at any future time
will always be the same when we run the model again with those
same values.
2. Stochastic models:
Stochastic models are mathematical models that include
randomness or uncertainty. This means the outcome can be
different each time even if we start with the same conditions. In
simple words, a stochastic model is like a model that includes
“luck” or “chance”. It does not always give the same result,
because it includes random events or unpredictable changes.
For example, imagine a model that predicts how a disease spreads.
Even if we start with same number of sick people, the number of
new infections might be different each time we run the model,
because it depends on chance like who meets whom and whether
they get infected.
3. Static models:
Static models are mathematical models that show a system at a
single point in time. They do not consider changes over time. In
simple words, a static model is like a snapshot - it shows how
things are right now, not how they change in the future or how they
got there.
For example, a static model might show the balance of water in a
tank based on how much is flowing in and out at that moment,
without looking at how it changes overtime.
4. Dynamic models:
Dynamic models are mathematical models that show how a
system change over time. They track how things evolve step by step.
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In simple words, a dynamic model is like a video - it shows how
things change from one moment to the next, not just a single snapshot.
For example, a dynamic model might show how a population grows
year by year, or how the number of infected people in a disease
outbreak increases and then decreases overtime.
5. Linear models:
Linear models are mathematical models where the relationship
between variables is straight and proportional - when one variable
changes the other changes at a constant rate. In simple words, a
linear model shows a straight-line relationship. If we double one
thing the other also doubles (or halves, depending on the direction)
For example, if we earn Rs 100 for every hour we work, then the
total money we earn increases in a straight line as our hours
increase. That’s a linear model.
6. Nonlinear models:
Non-linear models are mathematical models where the relationship
between variables is not straight or constant - small changes in one
variable can cause big or unpredictable change in another. In
simple words, a non-linear model shows a curved or changing
relationship. Doubling one thing doesn’t always double the other -
the change can be faster, slower, or uneven.
For example, if a disease spreads faster as more people get
infected, the number of infected people might grow slowly at first,
then suddenly very fast. That’s a non-linear model.
7. Continuous models:
Continuous models are mathematical models where changes
happen smoothly and constantly overtime, without certain jumps.
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In simple words, a continuous model shows how things change
little by little, all the time – like a flowing river, not in steps.
For example, if we model how water fills a tank drop by drop, and
the water level rises smoothly, that’s the continuous model.
8. Discrete models
Discrete models are mathematical models where change happen in
separate steps, not continuously. They deal with values at specific
points in time. In simple words, a discrete model shows changes
that happen one step at a time - like counting numbers or taking
snapshots.
For example, if we count how many people get sick each day
(day1, day2, day3…), that’s a discrete model because it jumps
from one day to the next.
9. Empirical models:
Empirical models are models based on observations and data, not
on theories or known laws. They try to describe what is happening
by looking at real world results. In simple words, an empirical
model is built by using data from experiments or observations - it
shows what usually happens, even if we don’t fully understand
why.
For example, if we measure how a plant grows under different
amounts of sunlight and then create a formula based on those
results, that’s an empirical model.
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things work - like physics, chemistry, or biology to explain and
predict behaviour.
For example, if we model how a disease spreads using formulas
that include how people interact, how the virus behaves, and how
the immune system responds, that’s a mechanistic model.
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2. Make assumptions: This step is concerned in simplifying the
real-world problems by focusing on key variables and
relationships.
3. Formulate the model: In this step we develop mathematical
relationships (equations, inequalities, functions etc) based on
assumptions.
4. Solve the model: In this step, we use mathematical techniques
or methods to analyse or solve the given model.
5. Interpret the results: This step deals with translating the
mathematical results back into the context of the original
problem.
6. Validate the model: In this step, we compute the models’
predictions with real world data and adjust the assumptions or
structure, if needed.
7. Refine and communicate: This is the last step which improves
the model and communicate the findings clearly.
Here is a flowchart depicting the various steps involved in the
formulation of a mathematical model;
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2.5 Applications of Mathematical Modelling:
Mathematical modelling has a wide range of applications across
various fields of science, engineering, social sciences, economics,
and more. Below is a categorised list of key applications of
mathematical modelling:
1. Science and engineering:
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• Physics: Modelling motion (Newton’s laws),
thermodynamics, quantum mechanics, heat propagation
etc.
• Chemistry: Reaction kinetics, molecular dynamics,
diffusion processes.
• Engineering: Structural analysis, fluid dynamics (CFD),
control systems, signal processing, etc.
• Environmental science: Climate change models,
pollution dispersion, water cycle modelling.
2. Biological sciences and medicine:
• Epidemiology: Spread of diseases for example SIR
models for covid 19, malaria etc.
• Neuroscience: Modelling brain activity neuron dynamics.
• Genetics and evolution. Population genetics, gene
regulation networks.
• Medical imaging: Image reconstruction, tumour growth
modelling.
• Pharmacokinetics: Drug dosage and distribution
modelling in the body.
3. Ecology and ecosystem modelling:
• Predator prey models for example Lotka Volterra
equations.
• Population dynamics.
• Resource management and conservation. • Habitat
fragmentation and biodiversity studies.
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• Macroeconomics: economic growth models inflation
and unemployment analysis.
• Finance: Option pricing (Black- Scholes model), risk
assessment, portfolio optimization.
• Market modelling: Supply demand analysis, game
theory, auction modelling.
5. Social sciences:
• Sociology: Spread of ideas, social behaviour modelling,
opinion dynamics.
• Demography: Population growth and migration
modelling.
• Psychology: Decision making and behaviour models.
6. Computer science and AI:
• Algorithm performance analysis.
• Machine learning and a data fitting model.
• Natural language processing.
• Robotics and path planning.
7. Sports and games:
• Performance prediction.
• Strategy optimization.
• Game theory in competitive settings.
8. Education and learning:
• Curriculum design optimization.
• Learning analytics.
• Knowledge progression models.
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Chapter III
COMPARTMENT MODEL
A compartment model is a simplified mathematical representation of a
system, often used in fields like pharmacokinetics, epidemiology, and
ecology, where the system is divided into distinct, interconnected
units called “compartments”. These compartments represent groups of
tissues, populations, or environmental zones, and the model uses
equations to describe how materials or individuals move between
these compartments. In other words, we can define a compartment
modeling as a mathematical framework used to describe and analyze
the distribution and movement of substances—such as drugs,
chemicals, or pathogens—within a biological system. It simplifies
complex biological processes into a set of interconnected
compartments, each representing a specific tissue or organ, and
models the transfer of substances between these compartments. Each
compartment represents a distinct state, group, or locations where
substances or entities (like chemicals, populations, or data) are
assumed to be uniformly distributed, like in one compartment model it
assumes that the substance distributes instantaneously and uniformly
throughout the body, in two compartment model it divides the body
into a central compartment (e.g., blood) and a peripheral compartment
(e.g., tissues), allowing for more complex distribution patterns and so
on.
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"peripheral compartments" could represent tissues like muscles or
fat.
i) ONE-COMPARTMENT MODEL:
The one-compartment model is a simplified way to understands how
drugs move and are eliminated in the body. It assumes the body is a
single, well-mixed compartment where the drug rapidly distributes
throughout and is eliminated in a first order process. This model is
useful for drugs that distribute quickly and can help predict drug
behavior and guide dosing. Imagine a drug is injected into the
bloodstream (central compartment) and eliminated over time (kidney
or liver).
Let:
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k: elimination rate constant
ODE:
𝐶(𝑡)= 𝐶0𝑒−𝑘𝑡
Where C0 is the initial concentrations.
A general one-compartment is given as;
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The two-compartment model divides the body into two interconnected
compartments: a central compartment and a peripheral compartment.
Consider a drug that can distribute between two compartments, the central
compartment represents tissues with rapid drug distribution, like blood and
highly perfused organs, while the peripheral compartment represents tissues
with slower distribution, such as adipose tissue. This model helps understand
how drugs distribute and are eliminated in the body.
central
ODEs:
- keC1
𝑑𝐶2
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The first equation describes loss from the central compartment to
peripheral and elimination, plus return flow from the peripheral
compartment.
The second equation captures the exchange between the
compartments.
A general two-compartment model is given as;
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iii) THREE-COMPARTMENT MODEL:
The three-compartment model is a mathematical framework
commonly used in pharmacokinetics to describe the distribution and
elimination of drugs within the body. It extends the simpler one
compartment and two compartment models by incorporating
additional compartments to more accurately represent the complex
physiological processes involved.
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b) Peripheral Compartment (C2): This Compartment corresponds to
the tissues with moderate blood flow, such as muscles.
The drug moves between these Compartments through first -order kinetic
processes characterized by rate constants:
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CHAPTER IV
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Now, we try to learn some of its applications and explain certain as
follows;
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4.2. Applications of the Three-Compartment Model
5. Toxicokinetic
Remifentanil
: As an intravenous Anesthetic
I. OVERVIEW
The topic of the development of new opioid anesthetic agents is mainly
to increase potency, and reduce the cardiovascular toxicity. For this
purpose, recently a new kind of opioid derivative drug, remifentanil, has
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been synthetized. Remifentanil is an ultrashort acting opioid and it is
subjected to metabolism by esterases in blood and other tissues. In vivo
studies demonstrated an extensive metabolism of this drug by ester
hydrolysis. The primary metabolic pathway experienced by remifentanil
is the formation of a carboxylic acid metabolite (named GI90291)
obtained by desertification. The chemical structures of remifentanil and
its primary metabolite are shown in Fig 1 . It has been demonstrated on
animals that the pharmacodynamics of remifentanil is very similar to the
other opioid drugs, this fact, combined with the reduced effects on the
cardiovascular system makes the use of remifentanil very attractive in
anesthesia. Remifentanil is generally administrated by the intravenous
route. Because of the very short halflife of the drug, usually a bolus
injection is administered to raise the blood concentration immediately,
then a slower intravenous infusion is used to maintain the effective
plasma concentration. Even if it is recommended to infuse remifentanil
only during general anesthesia procedures, the single/repeated bolus
injections could be used in clinical situation in which a brief period of
intense analgesia is required and the set - up of a continuous infusion
pump is difficult (i.e. painful diagnostic and therapeutic procedures
outside the operating theater). For this reason, it is particularly
interesting to model what happen in the plasma concentration of
remifentanil after the bolus injection or continuous infusion
administration. Different kinds of models have been proposed, the
simplest of which is the compartmental one, alternatively, the
physiologically based approach is more complex and potentially more
exhaustive.
Fig 1.
Chemical structures of remifentanil and its metabolite.
The aim of the present work is to develop and validate a new simple
model using the compartmental modeling approach to evaluate the
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remifentanil plasma concentration in case of bolus injection and
continuous infusion.
II. MODELING
In the three-compartmental modeling, three compartments describe the
fate of a drug once administered: the central compartment, which
represents the plasma; the highly perfused compartment, which
represents the organs and tissues highly perfused by the blood; and the
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scarcely perfused compartment, which represents the organs and tissues
scarcely perfused by blood. A schematic of the model is shown in Fig 2 .
Fig 2.
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a) Central compartment:
3+
−[(𝑘12+𝑘13+𝑘10)⋅𝐶1]⋅𝑉1+𝐼(𝑡)
In which, C1, C2, and C3 are, respectively, the drug concentrations of the
central, highly perfused, and scarcely perfused compartments. V1, V2,
and V3 are respectively, the volumes of the central, highly perfused, and
scarcely perfused compartments. Cl1, Cl2, and Cl3 are, respectively, the
clearances (rates of drug elimination) of the central, highly perfused, and
scarcely perfused compartments. k12 and k21 are the transport
coefficients between the central and the highly perfused compartments;
k13 and k31 are the transport coefficients between the central and the
scarcely perfused compartments. Finally, k10 is the kinetic constant of
drug elimination from the central compartment. The kinetics of
elimination and transport between the compartments have been
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considered first order kinetics. These equations have to be solved
coupled with their initial conditions:
𝑡=0, 𝐶1= 0
𝑡=0, 𝐶2=0
𝑡=0, 𝐶3=0
The three equations are inter- dependent, thus, they have to be solved
simultaneously to evaluate the drug concentration in all the
compartments.
III. RESULTS
The model simulations obtained are shown in Fig 3 and compared with
the experimental data in the case of intravenous constant-rate infusion.
Each curve has been obtained as average values due to the
administration to two subjects. During the 20 minutes infusion, a total of
14 blood samples were taken. After stopping the infusion, 16 blood
samples
were taken, up to 240 min after the stop. Therefore, each history was
described by 30 sample data.
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Fig 3.
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Comparison between the experimental plasma concentration value and
the model curves in the case of intravenous constant-rate infusion with
an infusion time of 20 minutes. a1) plasma concentration after a dose of
1 μg .kg −1 ·min −1; a2) plasma concentration after a dose of 4 μg .kg −1
·min−1; a3) plasma concentration after a dose of 8 μg ·kg −1 ·min −1.
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44
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Fig4
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Comparison between the experimental plasma concentration value and the model
curves in the case of fast intravenous infusion (bolus). b 1) plasma concentration
after a dose of 2 μg ·kg −1; b2) plasma concentration after a dose of 5 μg ·kg −1;
Comparison between the experimental plasma concentration value and the model
curves in the case of fast intravenous infusion (bolus). b 3) plasma concentration
after a dose of 15 μg ·kg −1 ; b4) plasma concentration after a dose of 30 μg ·kg −1.
The values of the model parameters obtained after the optimization routine, are
shown in Table 1 . The model developed has been used to evaluate the plasma
concentration both in the case of intravenous constant-rate infusion and
intravenous bolus, which has been reproduced simulating a very fast infusion in
the central compartment. This is a remarkable improvement to the compartmental
modeling: in fact, once the model parameters have been evaluated for a certain
administration, the model is able to predict the drug plasma
concentration varying not only the dose, but also the infusion rate of the
drug.
TABLE I.
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V2 23.9 mL k12 0.373 min-1
IV. CONCLUSIONS
Nevertheless, once the value of the parameters has been evaluated, our
simple model was able to describe the remifentanil concentration on
blood for different ways of administration. This is a remarkable
improvement to the compartmental modelling: in fact once the model
parameters have been evaluated for a certain kind of administration, the
model is able to predict the drug plasma concentration varying not only
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the dose but also the infusion rate of the drug. This feature makes the
model more versatile than the other available in literature and very
useful for predictive purposes.
Compartment Definitions:
. Represents less perfused tissues where the drug distributes more slowly.
. Acts as a reservoir.
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. Blood flows from the central compartment to the liver.
. The liver eliminates the drug through metabolism or biliary excretion.
Diagram
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In this model, the liver's capacity and blood flow greatly influence the drug’s
clearance.
Key points:
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CONCLUSION
This project has explored the vital role of mathematical biology with
a particular focus on compartment modelling, in understanding and
analysing complex biological processes. Compartment models
simplify biological systems by dividing them into distinct sections or
‘compartments’ each representing a specific state or group such as
susceptible, infected, and recovered individuals in epidemiological
models.
By using systems of differential equations, compartment models
allow researchers to simulate dynamic chains over time, predict
future behaviour, and assess the impact of interventions. This
approach has proven especially valuable in studying the spread of
infectious diseases, drug kinetics, and ecological interactions.
Through this study it is evident that compartment modelling serves
as a powerful and accessible tool for translating biological
complexity into manageable mathematical frameworks. As
challenges in public health, medicine, and environmental science
continue to evolve, the application of such models will remain
central to data - driven decision making and scientific advancement.
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55