JuLy2erH-AUGUST IST 2025 The economics of superintelligence“The Economist July 26th 2025 Contents On the cover Silicon Valley’ predictions are even clase to being accurate, expect unprecedented uphoaval: leader, page 7. What if artificial intelligence made the word's ‘economic growth explode? Page 1. labs al-o-nothing compatition leaves no time to fuss about safely, page 15. Hats off to ‘the "doomer industrial complex Anthropic’s business is booming: Schumpeter, page 57 > Noxt week's edition: We will publish afull edition as usual next week, on August 2nd, but it will not be printed. Subseribers can access all of the daily and weekly content ‘on our app and economist.com ‘The world this week 5 Asummary of political ‘and business news Leaders 7 The economics of superintlligence Humaniy’s next step 8 Financial innovation GENIUS inspiration 9 The Middle East Enough 9 Ukraine Aself inflicted wound 10 Turkey Distraction tactics United States 11 Death from below 23, Women’s-sports bars 23, Trump v Murdoch ‘24 Cutting food stamps 25 Charlie Kirk 26 Lexington Poetic justice ‘The Americas 27 Trump's Brazil misadventure 28 Nocash in Caracas Letters 32 Onrefugee policy, atand consulting, the British and hot weather, conference panels By Invitation 44 Filippo Grandi on fixing asylum Briefing 415 The race for AGI Arcficially incautious 48 The economics of AGI Eureka all the time Asia 2g Private jets 30 Bangladeshi Teslas 31 Turmoil in Japan 31 Mongoli's miracle horse 32 Banyan Indix's elites China 33 China's elusive leader 34 Apalaver over ports 35 Acomeback for “comrade”? Hell under earth ‘The illegal South African gold-miners blockaded formonths underground ages Original feature writing After page 38 t Double Bill ‘The story of a decades- Jong identity theft that put an innocent man in jail page 16 1 t Trainswotting 00 days hostage Millions of Indians ‘Omer Shem Tov survived. sit a fiendish exam for Hamas captivity by ‘job on the railways becoming his jailers'gofer age 26 ‘age 384 ‘The Economist July 26th2025 Contents Britain 36 Ayear after the riots 37 Views on social unrest 38 Bagehot The peril of Finance & economics 58 Crypto's big bang ‘59 Dollar damage 60 Howto get a pay rise pleasing 61 The Detroit of Evs 62 Buttonwood 24/7 trading 63 Free exchange Sa wg Geoeconomics Middle East & Africa 39 Somalia crumbles ‘Science & technology 40 Conflict in Congo 64 America's weapons labs 41 Syriaand Lebanon 66 stand Latin 42 Gaza starves 67 Well informed Probiotics Europe 43 France and autonomy Culture 44 Turkey and the Kurds 68 How satire treats Trump 45 Backsliding in Kyiv 69 Restaurant bookings 4s Europe's coffee hopes 70 World in adish 46 Charlemagne Sin taxes (Cha chan teng Eee | 7 Magazines’ golden age imtematonal 72 IKEA's trailblazing textiles 47 Setback in the war on A . fete Economic & financial indicators 49 The Telegram Sweden's 73 Statistics on 42 economies secretbomb plan Obituary 74 Fauja Singh, centenarian marathon man Business 1 Xiaomi’s triumph 52 Shipping booms 53 Arail mega-merger 54 Gulfoil giants go big '85 Airline pricing tricks ‘56 South-East Asian tech 57 Schumpeter Anthropic ae teen ot yo ee cee ee eat eee ieee ee ee ee Ckiementiee Goaemicigueniae” EiecruetcNsa, tom Soe eae rear Fécycle see fee eee incense Perec msi rete pee el — Semacteetemenstttm Wrenn oe Scena pe tae ee Gosia cue enter cee oer ees pare Susculone’ Shrine Seance seen (sy“The Economist July 26th 2025 The world this week Politics ‘The Republican leadership in America’s House of Repre~ sentatives sent the chamber into an early recess to avoid a vote on releasing documents related to Jeffrey Epstein, dead financier who trafficked underage girls forsex. Asense of crisishas gripped the White House, as normaly loyal MAGA supporters of Donald Trump become incensed atthe with- holding of material on Epstein thatmay prove embarrassing to the president. MrTrump has said he wants transparency, though he issuing the Wall ‘Sireet Journal and Rupert Murdoch, whose company owns the paper, forrunninga story that claims he wrotea bawdy note ro Epstein in2003, three years before the first criminal charges were lid Nowisthetime Australia, Britain, Canada, France, Italy, Japan and22 othercountries caledon Israel tocndits war in Gaza, asthe suffering of civilians had reached new depths’ Itsaid Israel should lift restrictions on aid and stop “drip feeding” supplies. Israel dismissed the statementas being “discon- nected from reality” Separate- 1y,109 aid organisations and human-rights groups warned that mass starvation wasan imminent threat tothe pop- ulation. Ceasefire negotiations are continuingiin Qatar. Meanwhile, dozens of Gazans continued to be killed in Israel Defence Forces' operations, many of them while ying get foodaid, Three people ‘were killed in astrike on Gaza's sole Catholic church. The IDF said itregretted the srikeand claimed itwas an accident. Fighting erupted in Congo's eastern North Kivu region between M23:ebelsbacked by Ruandaand government- aligned forces, according to reports. Under pressure from “America, which wants stability inthe resource-rich region, the Congolese governmenthad only justagreed to signa peace treaty with M23 in August. In Mozambique Venincio ‘Mondlane, the opposition candidate in ast year’s presi dential election, was charged with inciting the protests that followed the poll. The rigged election saw Frelimo, the party that has ruled the country for halfa century,retumed to power. MrMondlane saysheis being targeted for exposing “massive electoral fraud” Protestsbroke outin Ukraine against a bill that gives the president control over the country'santi-corruption agencies. The prosecutor ‘general, who is answerable to VolodymyrZelensky, will now oversee the agencies, which critics say will weaken the system fortackling graft. West: emallies have insisted that ‘Ukraine sustain strong ant- Corruption measuresas acon: dition for receiving aid, Mr Zelensky maintains the legisla- tion isnecessary to purge the agencies of Russian influence. Ukraine and Russia held more peace talksin Istanbul. The Iatest round was proposed by MrZelenskyafterMr Trump threatened to impose sanctions on Russiaifitdid notagree toa dealin the coming months. ‘The Kremlin downplayed any hopes of abreakthrough, say- ing there would be no miracles. ‘The International Court of Justice in The Hague ruled that Countries must co-operate to combat climate change and that treaties impose obliga- tions to reduce emissions. It also raised the possibilty of paying reparationsto coun- tries, suchas low-lying islands, affected by global warming. Although hailed by greens asa Jandmarkedecision, the rulings non-binding. Some big coun triessuch as America,China (oyfarthe worl’ biggest emitter) and Russia do not recognise the 1)'sjurisdicton, and some others only half so. In Bangladesh an airforce jet crashed intoa school in Dhaka, the capita, killing atleast 25, childrenand sixadults. The aircraft was aChinese-made 7 BGI. Police used teargasto disperse student protesters ‘demanding answers forthe crash from the country’s inter imgovernment. Japan's beleaguered prime minister, Ishiba Shigeru, insist- ced that he would stay in office, afterhis Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner lost its majority inanelection forthe upperhouse of parlia- ‘ment, Voters are angry about ‘taxesand immigration. The coalition lost its majorityin the Jowerhouse last year. Demand forJapanese government long dated bonds sank as investors fretted that Mrshiba'sdepar- ture would plunge Japan into political uncertainty. ‘Trade was alsoan issue atthe lection, but two daysafterthe poll Japan strucka deal with ‘America thacimposes 215% tariff on goods imported from Japan. Thatis lower than the ‘35% duty Donald Trump had threatened to levy, butabove the 10% rate that wasiin place ‘during negotiations. MrIshiba puta positive spin on the pact, describing itasawin for Japan's mighty carindustry. ‘Theagreement places no restrictions on the volume of ‘earsandcarparts that Japan ‘can export ro America ‘Thailand closed its entire border with Cambodia, 2s tensions escalated over adis- puted area, AThai Fe fighter jetbombed a military targetin Cambodia, according tothe That army. The two countries also exchanged artillery fie over the border, causing tens of thousands ofvillagersto be evacuated on the Thai side, Alexandre de Moraes, the Supreme Court justice in Brazil who isleading the investiga- tion into Jair Bolsonaro for allegedly plotting a coup, threatened to have him arrest ed for breaking aban on ap- pearingon social media. Mr Bolsonaro, the country’s presi dent from 2019 0 2022, is being tried on allegations that he tried to stop the transfer of powerto Luiz Inicio Lula da Silva, which he denies. After Mr Bolsonarogave an interview that news organisations posted online, Mr Moraes said the social-media ban extended to postsby third parties. Ten Americans who were being heldin Venezuela on spusious ‘grounds were released inex change for more than 250 Yenezuelans whohad been deported by Americatoa prisonin El Salvador. The prisoner swap was facilitated ‘byNayib Bukele, the Salvador- anpresident, who was de- scribed.asa “good fiend” to the United States by America’s special envoy forhostages. ‘The Seriously Flawed Office Britain's Supreme Coureover tumed the conviction of a former banker for rigging UBOR, a benchmark interest rate that was used throughout the global financial system. ‘Tom Hayes was found guiltyin 201s for his alleged partina scandal that shook the banking industry. The court found that the jury may not have been propery directed inthe case. It also quashed the conviction of Carlo Palombo, aformertrader, formanipulating EURIBOR, another benchmarkrate. The Serious Fraud Office brought the charges against both men.‘The Economist July 26th2025 The world this week Business Donald Trump announced plansto relax regulations ‘governing thedevelopment of artificial intelligence in Amer ica, including penalties for states with stern ruleson deploying at. Mr Trump aims tounify an increasingly frag- ‘mented legal landscape for At among the so states, and to ‘massively expand Al exports to ‘America'sallies. The president also signedan order intended toroot out ideological bias in Al models, or“ woke Marxist Iunacy’,as he described it. Not onthe same page Areport surfaced that Openat and SoftBankare atodds over the direction ofthe Stargate project, a$soobn atinvest- Imentthat was announced in January with the supportof MrTrump. The companies are struggling to co-ordinate the construction of data centres, Countering the narra- tive, Openalt said ithad entered into an agreement with Oracle, another Stargate partner, to develop 4.5 gigawatts of data centre capacity, though it did not say where orhow it would be funded. Mr Trump described Jerome Powell asa“numbskull” and said he would be out of hisjob as chairman of the Federal Reserve within eight months. ‘The presidentis waginga public war against the Fed for not cutting interest rates fast enough, though he said recent- ly that he would not sack Mr Powell. Adding to the pres Scott Bessent, the treasury secretary, called on the central bank to “conduct an exhaustive internal review ofits non- monetary policy operations" accusing it of “mission creep" Alphabet’s quarterly net profit rose by 19% year on year, and revenue from Google's search and advertising business grew by12%, That helped alleviate concerns from investors that Al cchatbots are eating into its core search business, fornow. “Meanwhile, an al system devel- oped by Google's DeepMind wwas awarded the “gold standard at the International Mathematical Olympiad, an annual event where pre-univer sity students compete to solve sixexceptionaly difficule ‘maths problems. lewas the first timean Atreached the top standard at the competition. pena saidithad notched up asimilar score to DeepMind, though it did not officially ener the contest. Chevron sealed its$s3bn acquisition of Hess, after ‘winninga lengthy legal dispute that had delayed the takeover. Hess owns big stake in Guy- ana’ fast-growing offshore oilfields, but ExxonMobil had challenged the takeover, claim ing icheld the rights to negoti ate the stake with Hess. Exxon, said itdisagreed with the ruling by the Paris-based Internation: al Chamber of Commerce, but respected the arbitration pro- cess. Earlier, the Federal Trade Commission lifted itsban on John Hess, the chief executive of Hess, joining Chevron's board of directors UniCredit, one of Italy's big- ‘gest banks, withdrew its hostile takeover bid for Banco BPM, 2 smaller rival, and criticised the government for trying to block the deal. The European Com- mission has also chastised the government for meddling in the takeover process. Elon Musk warmed of “few rough quarters" ahead for Tesla, as the carmakerreported big drop in sales and nee profit. Mr Musk pointed to the loss of incentives in Americato buy electric vehicles asone source of Tesla's troubles. A $7500 federal tax credit for EV purchasesends in September. ‘The company did not update its outlook, saying it was “diff cult tomeasure the impactsof shifting global trade.” General Motors’ profit plunged in the second quarter, asittooka S1abn charge relat ‘edito the cost of tariffs im- posed on carsimported from its factories in South Korea, Mexicoand elsewhere. The ‘company said itexpects those costs to abate incoming months. Meanwhile, Stellantis recorded.a net loss forthe ist half ofthe year, mostly because of changes related to its busi- ness, bt also because of a €300m ($350m) hitincurred from anti, Coca-Cola registered another decline in North American sales ofits trademark drink,as health-conscious Americans seekalternatives to soda. The company is introducing a new version of Coca-Cola made with cane sugar, a change chat was trailed by Mr'Trump a ‘weekago. Some people think cane sugar is healthier th high-fructose com syrup, which has been used to sweet: enCokefor decades. Both versions willbe available. Duty free Michael O'Leary, the boss of Ryanair, Europe's biggest airline raised the possibilty of switching the registration of new Boeing aircraftdeliveries to Britain to ensureitavoids thecost of potential tariffs from the EU. Ryanairisbased in reland,an EU member; the blocisconsidering stiff duties ‘on Boeing planes delivered to the regionificcan'treacha tradedeal with America“The Economist Jly 26th 2025 The economics of superintelligence If Silicon Valley's predictions are even close to being accurate, expect unprecedented upheaval Frog. 267 of say he safes petition as been het gs will continue much as they are. But sometimes the future is unrecognisable. The tech bosses of Silicon Valley say humanity is approaching such a moment, because in just a few years artificial intelligence (At) will be berter than the average ng at all cognitive tasks. You do not need to put high ‘odds on them being right to see that their claim needs thinking, through. Were it to come true, the consequences would be as ‘great as anything in the history of the world economy. Since the breakthroughs of almost a decade ago, AY's pow- ers have repeatedly and spectacularly outrun predictions. This year large language models from Openal and Google Deep- Mind got to gold in the International Mathematical Olympiad, 48 years sooner than experts had predicted in 2021, The models ‘grow ever larger, propelled by an arms race between tech firms, ‘which expect the winner to take everything; and between Chi- na and America, which fear systemic defeat if they come sec- ‘ond. By 2027 it should be possible to train a model using 1,000 times the computing resources that built GPI-4, which lies be- hind today’s most popular chatbot. ‘What does that say about Ars powers in 2030 of 2032? AS ‘we describe in one of two briefings this week, many fear hell- scape, in which al-enabled terrorists build bioweapons that Kill billions, ora “misaligned” Al slips its leash and outwits humanity. It is easy to see why these tail risks command so much attention. Yet, as our second briefing explains, they have crowded out thinking about the immediate, probable, predictable—and equally astonish- ing—effects of a non-apocalyptic AI. ‘Before 1700 the world economy grew, on average, by 8% a century. Anyone who forecast ‘what happened next would have seemed deranged. Over the following 300 years, as the Industrial Revolution took hold, ‘growth averaged 350% a century. That brought lower mortality and higher fertility. Bigger populations produced more ideas, leading to yet faster expansion. Because of the need to add hu- man talent, the loop was slow. Eventually, greater riches led people to have fewer children. That boosted living standards, which grew at a steady pace of about 2% a year. Subsistence to silicon Al faces no such demographic constraint. Technologists pro- mise that it will rapidly hasten the pace at which discoveries are made. Sam Altman, Openat's chief executive, expects Ar to bbe capable of generating “novel insights” next year. Als already help program better Al models. By 2028, some say, they will be overseeing their own improvement. Hence the possibility of a second explosion of economic growth. IF computing power brings about technological ad- vances without human input, and enough of the pay-off rein- vested in building still more powerful machines, wealth could accumulate at unprecedented speed. Economists have long. ‘been alive to the relentless mathematical logic of automating the discovery of ideas. According to a recent projection by Ep- ‘och Al,a bullish think-tank, once Ar can carry out 30% of tasks, annual growth will exceed 20% ‘True believers, including Elon Musk, conclude that selfim- proving AI will create a superintelligence. Humanity would gain access to every idea to be had—including for building the best robots, rockets and reactors. Access to energy and human lifespans would no longer impose limits. The only constraint ‘onthe economy would be the laws of physics. ‘You don't need to go to that extreme to conjure up t's mind-boggling effects. Consider, as a thought experiment, just the incremental step to human-level intelligence. In labour markets the cost of using computing power for a task would limit the wages for carrying it out: why pay a worker more than. the digital competition? Yer the shrinking number of super- stars whose skills were not automatable and could directly ‘complement Al would enjoy enormous returns. The only peo- pledoing betterthan them, in all likelihood, would be the own- ers of Al-televant capital, which would be gobbling up a rising share of economic output. Everyone else would have to adapt to gaps in Al's abilities and to the spending of the new rich. Wherever there was a bottleneck in automation and labour supply, wages could rise rapidly. Such effects, known as “cost disease’, could be so strong as to limit the explosion of measured GDP, even as the economy changed utterly. ‘The new patterns of abundance and short- age would be reflected in prices. Anything AT could help produce—goods from fully auto- mated factories, say, or digital entertain- ‘ment—would see its value collapse. If you fear losing yourjob to At, you can at least look for- ward to lots of such things. Wherever humans ‘were still needed, cost disease might bite. Knowledge workers who switched to manual work might find they could afford less child care or fewer restaurant meals than today. And hu- mans might end up competing with ats for land and energy. This economic disruption would be reflected in financial markets. There could be wild swings between stocks as it be- ‘came clear which companies were winning and losing winner- takes-ll contests. There would be a rapacious desire to invest, both to generate more AI power and in order for the stock of infrastructure and factories to keep pace with economic growth. At the same time, the desire to save for the future could collapse, as people—and especially the rich, who do the most saving—anticipared vastly higher incomes. Persuading people to give up capital for investment would therefore require much higher interest rates—high enough, perhaps, to make long-duration asset prices fall, despite explo- sive growth, Scholars disagree, but in some models interest rates rise one-for-one or more with growth. In an explosive sce- nario that would mean having to refinance debts at 20-30%. Even debtors whose incomes were rising fast could suffer; ‘those whose incomes were not hitched to runaway growth ‘would be pummelled. Countries that were unable or unwilling to exploit the AL boom could face capital flight. There could »8 Leaders ‘The Economist July 26th2025 » also be macroeconomic instability anywhere, because infla- tion could take off as people binged on their anticipated for- tunes and central banks did not raise rates fast enough. Itisa dizzying thought experiment. Could humanity cope? Growth has accelerated before, but there was no mass demo- cracy during the Industrial Revolution; the Luddites, history's ‘most famous machine-haters, did not have the vote. Even if av- erage wages surged, higher inequality could lead to demands for redistribution. The state would also have more powerful tools to monitor and manipulate the population. Politics ‘would therefore be volatile. Governments would have to re- think everything from the tax base to education to the protec- tion of civil rights. Despite that, the rise of superintelligence should provoke ‘wonder. Dario Amodei, boss of Anthropic, told The Economist this week that he believes al will help treat once-incurable dis ‘eases (see Schumpeter). The way to look at another accelera~ ion, if it comes, is as the continuation of a long miracle, made possible only because people embraced disruption. Humanity may find its intelligence surpassed. Itwill still need wisdom. i Financial innovation GENIUS inspiration ‘The rest of the world should follow America on stablecoins _AMEGHS zw law on taboo is 60 good, “They named it after me; joked President Donald Trump as he signed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for Us Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act on July 18th. While the adminis- tration and the crypto industry celebrate the dawn of a golden age, the mood across the Atlantic is darker. Stablecoins, tokens backed by conventional assets, are seen as scammy, deeply destabilising—or both. Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, has warned commercial banks against issuing their ‘own coins. Christine Lagarde, head of the European Central Bank (ECB), cautions that stablecoins could become private ‘money that risks one day dislodging central banks. In fact, the rest of the world should swallow its doubts and follow America, Stablecoins hold out the potential for much- needed innovations in the world’s payment systems (see Fi- nance & economics section). If they are regulated well—as the GENIUS Act promises—that dream has a chance to be realised. ‘Make no mistake, crypto is rife with scams. Many coins are a get-rich-quick scheme—and one in which the president, his family and friends have all flagrantly indulged. Mr ‘Trump's holdings of STRUMP, a “meme coin” magicked out of thin air, are worth $1.9bn. Stablecoins are different. ‘Not only are they f typically backed by liquid dollar assets, in- cluding short-term Treasuries and bank de- posits, they could also turn out to be genuinely useful, Dollar stablecoins gained attention in countries such as ‘Turkey and Nigeria, where trust in the government is low and fears about runaway inflation and expropriation linger. In the ‘West they have largely operated in the unregulated shadows. By requiring issuers to be registered and setting out clear rules on reserve requirements and disclosures, the GENIUS Act should pave the way for more experimentation in America. ‘The prize could be large. Because stablecoin transactions are recorded instantaneously on digital ledgers, the technolo- gy allows retail and cross-border payments to be settled in minutes rather than days, and to be completed at a fraction of the fee charged by banks and card issuers. An international wire costing more than $15 or a credit-card fee of up to 2% of the transaction's value could be replaced by a stablecoin trans- action costing less than ten cents. According to Standard Chartered, a bank, the issuance of stablecoins could rise from sablecins Total mara aplication $80 around $260bn to $2trm by 2028; Stripe, a fintech firm, is thought to be considering issuing its own tokens. ‘Does such promise justify the risks? Many regulators, espe- cially in Europe, worry that the answer is no. They fear that stablecoins could displace central-bank money, cripple the banking system and increase the danger of destabilising runs. ‘However, some of these risks are overblown and, as America’s new law shows, others can be mitigated. Take first the threat of competition with central banks. The ‘worry is that “private’, less-safe money could undermine the public sort. Itis likely to be felt most by the ECB, which has been laying the groundwork fora digital euro since November 2023, partly in order to challenge the dominance of Visa and Mastercard, two American financial giants. But stablecoins will continue to be fully backed by assets denominated in pub- Jicmoney. There is no reason why the central bank should have a monopoly over payment innovations if a euro stablecoin could prove more usefl ‘What of the risks to commercial banks? ‘The worry is that stablecoins will pull deposits from lenders, raising their cost of funding and narrowing their scope to lend to the real econ- omy. Yet stablecoins will not vaporise deposits so much as move them around. Money will flow from a customer's bank to the stablecoin issuer. It will either be stashed in the issuer’s ‘bank account, or used to buy government debt. As the state in turn spends the cash, it will pay its workers and suppliers, re- turning money to bank deposits. Moreover, banks themselves stand to gain business from stablecoins’ Big Bang if they start managing issuers’ reserves or issuing coins of their own. ‘Arun on a huge stablecoin issuer, meanwhile, could cause isruption if it leads to a fire sale of assets, rather as a run on money-market funds caused havoc in 2008. But this danger could be mitigated by ensuring that stablecoins are fully backed by safe, liquid assets, and submit regular disclosures ‘on their holdings—precisely as the GENIUS Act sets out to do for any domestic issuer. Like countless technologies, the stablecoin revolution ‘could yet come to nothing. But itis better for entrepreneurs to ‘try and fail, than for regulators to set today’s system in stone and stop promising innovations from being pursued at all. ‘Time to take inspiration from Mr Trump's GENIUS Act. mt lL 888“The Economist Jly 26th 2025 Leaders 9 The Middle East Enough ‘The continuation of the warin Gaza disgraces Israel TT iit Wat Issel wage spears shor, with pre ion strikes, clear goals and results that enhanced its mi itary prestige. The war against Hamas in Gaza has become endless, indiscriminate and militarily pointless. It is turning Is- rael into a pariah. This newspaper has called for a ceasefire since 2024. Now, after weeks of talks in Qatar, the time has come for America to use all its power to bring about a negotiat- ed end to the fighting. That is essential in order to avoid mass starvation, Itis also in Israel's national self-interest and would open up a genuine chance to build a government for Gaza that excludes what is left of Hamas. ‘The situation is dire. Over 60% of buildings are damaged and 2m people have been displaced, many of them crammed into the centre of the strip. Although predic- tions of famine in 2024 by aid groups and the UN proved wrong, the threat today is real and urgent. Israel has sought to open corridors to supply aid, bypassing the UN-run system that Hamas may profit from, However, the vol- umes of food reaching Gazans are disgraceful- Jy low. Even if mote convoys arrive, people will starve without a ceasefire. The hellscape they live in, overrun by trigger-happy Israeli forces, gangs and Ha- ‘mas, is too dangerous to walk through to pick up supplies. ‘The war now has no military logic. The Israel Defence Forc- 5 (IDF) control about 70% of the strip. Hamas is defeated. Its leaders are dead, its military capacity isa tiny fraction of what it was on October 7th 2023 and its fighters are contained in pockets making up 10-20% of the territory. Hamas's backer, Iran, is humbled. Operations by the IDF are achieving little. ‘The inadequate provision of aid to civilians on terrain that is, in effect, under occupation is a warcrime. A plan by hardliners in Israel's government to corral Gazans into a permanent “hu- ‘manitarian city” would amount to ethnic cleansing: ‘Many Israelis agree that a ceasefire is needed, Although only 21% of them believe in a two-state solution, over 70% want the hostages to be released and the war to be over. The 1DF's generals do, too, and believe the humanitarian-city plan is ille~ gal. An overwhelming majority of politicians outside the ruling Coalition want a ceasefire and recognise the huge damage now being done to Israel's global standing. The ruling coalition it- self, led by Binyamin Netanyahu, no longer has a majority in the Knesset, Isael’s parliament, and faces an election within 15, months, Mr Netanyahu has prolonged the warin Gaza in order to prevent hardliners from bringing down his coalition, but that strategy has run its course, He needs to pivot. ‘The gap between the two sides in the talks has shrunkas an cenfeebled Hamas has made concessions. The remaining dif- ferences include issues such as the stationing of the IDF inside Gaza during the initial 60- day phase of a ceasefire agreement. These are resolvable. The weakness of Hamas means that the 60-day period could be used to create anew governing body, backed by the Palestin- ian Authority. This could take control of Gaza in the second phase, with Western and Arab support. Because the past two years have shown up Hamas's incompetence, cynicism and utter indiffer- cence to Palestinian life, many Gazans would support this. ‘Two things need to happen. Qatar must force Hamas's re- maining leaders, many of whom live in Doha, to sign a cease- fire deal, using the threat of expulsion and a further funding. crackdown. And Donald Trump must force Mr Netanyatwu to cend the war, using all the clout America has as Israels ally. ‘White House pressure has ended most of Israel's wars since independence in 1948. Granting it so much latitude in this con- flict has demonstrated that America is still essential. Mr ‘Trump's furious intervention in June brought the Israel-Iran war to an end, He must immediately deploy that anger and muscle for the good of Gaza. ml A self-inflicted wound Anew law jeopardises Ukraine's progress against corruption—and erodes vital Western support UA a os depen no oly on coamge and weapons, but on trust: the trust of its own citizens, and that of its Western backers. That compact is now at risk. On July 22nd the Rada, Ukraine's parliament, passed a bill that ‘would place the country’s two main anti-corruption bodies— 'NABU, Which investigates wrongdoing, and SAPO, which pros- ecutes it—under the control of the presidency. This was not the work of rogue MPs. It was orchestrated from the top by President Volodymyr Zelensky and his all-powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak. It passed with large numbers of votes from the president's own Servant of the People party. The law is a direct threat to the international support that has sus- tained Ukraine through the war. At home, it as drawn the first anti-Zelensky protests since the invasion, The new law grants sweeping powers to Ukraine's prosecu- torgeneral, a presidential appointee who reports directly to the president's office, to reassign, interfere with or even kill off corruption investigations. No case will now be safe if it steps ‘on the wrong toes. The justification offered—thar the agencies have been penetrated by pro-Russians—is unsubstantiated and looks like a pretence, What this bill really does is roll back a decade of democratic reform and reassert presidential con- »10 Leaders ‘The Economist July 26th2025 » trol overinstitutions that were painstakingly designed to be in- dependent. It guts the institutional autonomy that has been one of Ukraine's most impressive domestic achievements since the Revolution of Dignity in 2014. The Economist has long. argued that victory for Ukraine is not necessarily a matter of expelling Russian troops from the territory they have seized, a goal that now looks impossible. Rather, it must mean the emergence of a prosperous, stable, democratic state, anchored in liberal values, governed by the rule of law, and firmly on the path to joining the European Un- ion and, if possible, NATO. The creation of the two anti-cor- ruption agencies was central to that effort. The vision behind it is part of what keeps arms flowing and budgets funded. It helps persuade voters in Europe and America to bear the cost. But voters’ patience is not infinite. In much of the West, support for Ukraine is fraying. After three and a half years of ‘war, with no end in sight, leaders are struggling to justify the scale of the commitment—particularly as America under Do- nald Trump does less and Europe consequently needs to do more. If Ukraine begins to resemble the corrupt, autocratic system it once sought to escape, then Western politicians will find it harder to argue that the cause is worth defending, Rus- sia does not have to win on the battlefield; it can win by de- stroying Ukraine from within, Look at Georgia, once a darling of the West, but now a supine client state of the Kremlin, ‘The West bears some responsibility forall this. Its leaders lionised MrZelensky, whose heroism changed the early course of the war, and that has led them to turn a blind eye to his ‘growing list of failings. The new law was not passed in a vacu- ‘um, but followed the harassment of anti-corruption campai cers (see Europe section) and the dubious use of ‘sanctions’, in- ‘cluding asset freezes and travel bans, against the government's political enemies, including Mr Zelensky’s own predecessor as resident. Ukraine's friends have not done enough to call him ‘out over such lapses. With indecent haste, Mr Zelensky signed the new measure ‘on the same day that it was tabled and passed by the Rada. Itis not only a bad law: itis also a strategic blunder. It makes Uk- raine look more like the enemy it is fighting and less like the country it aspires to become. It weakens the moral case for ‘Westem solidarity when that solidarity is entering a more fragile phase. Ifthe president values his people's European fu- ture, he must quickly kil the bill that he has just soill-advised- ly signed before it kills the idea of a democratic Ukraine. i ‘Turkey: Distraction tactics Peace in Turkey is wonderful news, but must not become a smokescreen for repression TER MORE than four decades of war, peace between Tur- ey and the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) seems within reach, Disarmament has begun and is expected to continue throughout the summer; a partial amnesty may also be on the table (see Europe section). Peace could unlock new growth in Turkey's south-east, where the economy has ‘been ravaged by PKK violence and scorched-earth reprisals from Turkey's armed forces. The war has already cost Turkey some $18tm, according to the country’s finance minister. More than 40,000 people have died. Peace could lay the ground for Turkey to allow its Kurds a measure of well-de- served autonomy. It could also help avert yet more bloodshed in Syria by easing tensions between the PKK’s offshoot there and the new regime in Damascus. This is all good, and outsiders should su port it. But they must not allow Tarkey's presi dent, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to use peace as a smokescreen for repression. Having ruled for over two decades, first as prime minister and then as president, Turkey's strongman is openly musing about yet another term in power. To have a shot at one, he needs par- iiament to bring forward the coming presidential elections, set for 2028, or to approve a new constitution, which would reset his term limits. Short of the votes he needs to do either, he may offer the Kurds concessions in order to win over Turkey’s main Kurdish party, Peoples’ Equality and Democracy (DEM), while dismantling the rest of the opposition. ‘The Kurds should not, and probably will not, fll for any of this. They, more than anyone, know no good can come of a deal with a bully. A decade ago DEM’s predecessor scored an a lection upset, depriving Mr Erdogan's party of its majority in parliament. Peace talks with the PKK, which had begun years ‘earlier, collapsed soon thereafter, giving way to urban warfare ‘across Turkey's south-east. Thousands of Kurdish activists and politicians, including Selahattin Demirtas, a former presicien- tial contender and one of Mr Erdogan’s most eloquent critics, ‘ended up behind bars. Mr Demirtas remains there to this day. ‘Now it is the secular Republican People’s Party (CHP) that paying the price for standing in the way of Mr Erdogan’s am- bitions. The party's most formidable politician, Ekrem Ima- moglu, the mayor of Istanbul, was arrested in March on trumped-up charges of corruption. Hundreds . of others, including the former CHP mayor of Izmir and the CHP mayors of Adana and An- talya—three more of the country’s six biggest cities—have since been detained. ‘The CHP came ahead of AK in last year's lo cal elections for the first time in two decades. Unable to bring the party down through the ballot box, Mr Erdogan's government is using the courts to do the job instead. By locking up Mr Imamoghu, ‘Turkey's strongman has removed his most serious challenger from the next presidential elections, whenever they are, He is ‘counting on the outside world’s silence, and so far he is suc~ ceeding. Shamefully, not a word of criticism has come from ‘America or Britain. The EU has complained, but in a mealy- mouthed way. Germany, which had held up the sale of Euro- fighter Typhoon jets to Turkey in protest, backtracked this ‘week. Turkey's allies should urge Mr Erdogan to follow through with peace with the Kurds. But they also need to do ‘more to hold him accountable for his autocratic excesses. i2 ‘The Economist July 26th2025 Letters refugee policy, artificial intelligence and consulting, the British and hot weather, conference panels Regionalise refugee policy The Economist should be con- ‘gratulated for having formulat: edoutloud what manyin the asylum and migration policy ‘world think 'Scrap the asylum system’ July 2th). As you say, wwe should build something better. The 19s: UN refugee convention was conceived during the cold warina Euro- pean context. Today, although ‘most countries have adhered to that agreement itis clearthat theblanket concept of asylum doesnot work. The answeris forgovernments to declare the convention dead and replace it with regional conventions in Europe, Africa, the Middle East and soon. Asylum and migra- tion would be processed through regional mechanisms with no requestentertained by applicants outside theirregion. Countries that refused to take ‘back theircitizens would be subject to serious penalties. ‘The International Organi- sation for Migration and the forthe UN High Com- ner for Refugees should bemerged. The current man- date of the UNHCR to recog- nise “refugees” should be abolished and the staffing of thetwo bodies, whichcurrently numbers 40,000, should be capped at one-third ofthat number. None ofthis willever happen if governments don't take things decisively in hand. DR ALEXANDER CASELLA Former UNHCR director for Asia Chéne Bougeries, Switzerland Charlemagne's column on immigration in Denmark July sath) offered a timely perspee- tive,butoverlooked anew sgovernmentagreement on international recruitment that deserves scrutiny, Thedealopens the doorto more foreign workers i low- wage sectors suchas cleaning and hospitality, a pragmatic responseto labour shortages. But thelist of eligible countries excludes all of Aftica,and includes countries like Amer- ica, Japan and Moldova. The integration ministerhas stated that itis bettertoreceive labour from Britain than fromSoma- lia, ajudgment based not on qualifications, but on cultural assumptions. ‘Denmark saysitbelieves in equal opportunity. Yer under this system, anurse from Ghana ora hotel worker from Ugandaisautomatically excluded, not because of skills, batbecauseof origin. KURTNIELSEN Board member United Nations Association of Denmark Aarhus, Denmark ‘More letters on this issue are available at: economist.com/ letters/reugees Don'tletattakecharge “Will at rake out Accenture?", Schumpeter asked (June 28th), as he rightly questioned the expanding role of consultants. Yerthere isa far more danger- us trend. Corporate gate: keepers are increasingly out- sourcing theirjudgment rather than strengthening theirover- sium exercise Tm sure Bartleby’s column on the rules of business conferences rang true for all the conference-panel war- iors out there June 28th). ‘The best panel I ever wit- nessed had litle to do with the blah, blah, blah. It was in Nigeria and the moderator, so proud of his expertise in tai chi, asked the panellists to join him in practising the flowing movements. Surpris- rly, many did, with wob- bles and laughter. It may not have been the most informa- tive panel I've seen, but defi nitely the most entertaining, ‘Too bad he did not start with this, it might have loosened sight. This isnt justa strategic misstep, it’sa fundamental ‘governance failure. ‘Myresearch on board over- sight of financial disclosures showshow reporting thats, driven by artificial intelligence ‘can obscure poor performance ‘when directorsand audit com- mittees ack the tools,orthe wil, to ask critical questions.1 have created indices todetect ‘when firms write foralgo- rithms, not investors. The risks are real, and they are mounting. ‘The broader lesson, painful- ty familiarin Israel after Octo- berzth 2023, is that systems fail ‘when those changed with over sight fall asleep atthe wheel, ‘whether in national security or corporate governance. Atadiop- tionisno excuse for disen- ‘ged leadership. Boards must build internal capacity, ‘demand transparency from vendors and subject strategic technologies to real scrutiny, notjust marketing gloss. DR KEREN BAR-HAVA ‘Head of the ‘Accounting Department Jerusalem School of Business Hebrew University Jerusalem In tropical climes ‘The heating of Britain's climate isrelatively new Bagehot, July sth). Butthebenighted mad- nness of Englishmen inthe face ‘of the sun has a history that long predates the words immortalised in Noel Coward's ‘song. In South Africa the Brit- ‘things up and helped every ‘one to be more “unfiltered” LAWRENCE HADDAD Executive director Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition ishare often eferred tos rooineks, a isparaging term used by Afrikaners to describe Britons’ unprotected sun- reddened necks. British tour- istsare nicknamed gambas (prawns) by Spanish locals for theirpink-hued skin. ‘More seriously, deaths from sun exposure are increasing. ‘There were1700 new cases of melanoma ayearand 2,300 deaths from 2017 0 2019. The incidence ofthe skin disease hasrisen by 31% in ten years. IF Englishmen must go out in the midday sun they should slap on the sunscreen, whetherin Brighton or Benalmadena, DRDAVIDCOLDWELL Winchester I grew up in south-west Lon- don 70 years ago. I returned recently and it was shocking hhowlittlehad changed. One reason that Britons find the heat difficuleto bearis that many of them still ivein technologically obsolete Victorian houses, Another reason is attitude. Britain isnot ahot country by global stan- dards. My son livesin White- horse in the Yukon, where temperatures during the year can varyberween 40°C and 30°C. Few people complain. ‘They dress appropriately and ‘geton with life, TONY WOODRUFF Burnaby, Canada Bagehot argues that Britain is nowahot country but Britons don’ tact lke it That may be true for the south-east, but not foranorthem city like New- castle. Geordieshave long, bochaved asifthey iveina tropical climate (Newcastle's line of latitude is ss degrees north) Just visit ona Saturday inwinter, You'll find yourself surrounded by people dressed inlittle more than beach attire enjoying a night out. FREDERIK OEGEMA Deventer, Netherlands > Letters should be addressed 10 the Edivorat: The Economist, The Adelphi Building. 1-1 John Adam Stret, London WO2N: Email: letters@economist.com. ‘More letters availabe at: ‘economist.com/letters‘The Economist July 6th2025 BY INVITATION Filippo Grandi The head of the UN's agency for refugees on how to fix an asylum system under strain "Trae astuua and migration debate is emote, dvive and highly politicised, The many critics of modern asylum sys- tems claim they are failing. Some call for scrapping asylum alto- ‘gether and jettisoning the UN's Refugee Convention, which guar- antees the right to seek safety abroad. Such calls are reckless and counterproductive. Scrapping the asylum system would not only deny lifesaving protection to those in need. It would also do little or nothing to improve the situation atthe borders of receiving countries. The solution isto use asylum. systems as they are meant to be: fully and effectively. Then many of the problems of congestion, delays, backlogs and false claims could be fixed. That would help restore public faith. ‘Undoubtedly, the system is under great strain. The asylum pathways overwhelmed. tis itended fr peopeflecing war vo- Jence and human-rights abuse. But purely economic migrants see {tas the only way to teach opportunities in icher countries, Num- bbers of economic migrants clog channels desperately needed by people whose lives, in their home country are in ral danger. Yet the principle of asylum, supported by the tenets of the con- vention, has saved countless lives. We should preserve and strengthen existing systems, not scrap them. ‘There is much public disquiet over asylum. But there is also ‘wide support for genuine asylum-seekers and refugees. Ina world- wide Ipsos survey last year, 73% of respondents felt that “People should be able to take refuge in other countries, including in my country, to escape from war and persecution.” At the same time, 61% said “Most foreigners who want to get into my country as a refugee realy aren't refugees” but are driven, rather, by economic motivations. Empathy and scepticism collide, So how can asylum systems work better? Public demands for robust border controls and orderly admin- fstration are reasonable. As an urgent first step, governments, should resource, bolster and streamline asylum systems. If claims are dealt with fairly and swiftly, with failed asylum-seckers sent straight home, migrants will have ess incentive to try the asylum route, which must be reserved for those who genuinely need it. A practical step is to adopr simplified procedures that more quickly ‘weed out unfounded cases. When Switzerland brought in a pro- cess for dealing with nationalities whose claims were unlikely to ‘succeed, claims from those groups fell by half in 18 months. In many countries, returns systems for failed asylum-scekers are ineffective and underfunded. Some countries are considering return hubs for filed claimants, while others are exploring at- rangements with safe third countries to transfer refugees and asy- Jum-scekers. Such deals have certainly been controversial: think Britain and Rwanda. But with proper safeguards in place, they can ‘be both practical and lawful. Transfers must guarantee essential rights that ensure safety, access to fair and efficient asylum as- sessments, and dignified conditions. The transferring state has obligations too, such as offering financial support and more path- ‘ways for resettlement. ‘Other measures could include stepping up search, rescue and disembarkation efforts along particularly deadly routes, such asin ‘the Mediterranean Sea. And some asylum claims for Europe could bbe processed outside the EU—lessening chances for non-genuine claimants to disappear in search of work. Itis also time to design a controlled, safe and orderly migration system to meet Europe's high demand for migrant labour. Migrant ‘workers’ economic contribution to the countries in which they ‘work is well-known. Less publicised is how much refugees con- ‘tribute to their host countries’ economy. A study in Poland found that refugees generate 27% of the country’s GDP. Contributions ‘on this scale are a powerful argument for letting refugees work. In ‘00 many countries they are forbidden to do so. Safe and managed pathways have another benefit: they choke ‘off the billions made by criminal gangs and people-smugglers— ‘traffickers in death. Over the past decade 34,000 people trying to reach Europe by sea are reported to have died or gone missing. ‘The true figure is surely much higher. Yet though sea-crossings dominate the news, most refugees ‘want to stay near their home country. Of sum refugees under UNHCR’ mandate, two-thirds live in countries neighbouring their ‘own. Neatly three-quarters reside in low- or middle-income coun: tries, such as Bangladesh, Chad, Iran, Turkey and Uganda, ‘Despite that, humanitarian and development funding, already inadequate, has plummeted by at least a third this year. Food as- sistance, basic shelter, child protection, health, education and Protection for women and girls at risk of violence, including hor rendous sexual violence, are all being curtailed. Not only are refu- sgees affected; the impact of cuts is also felt in host communities. For refugees to remain close to home, as so many wish, hosting states badly need support from wealthier ones s0 that refugees ‘can work, go to school and lead safe, ordinary lives. That will help stabilise populations and regions. Handling this issue well through strong leadership and politi cal willis as vital to Europe's security as is investing in defence. ‘The continent faces a belt of crises from northern Africa through the Middle East to Ukraine. Slashing humanitarian and develop ment spending further could prove a major strategic miscalcula- tion. It could undermine stability, fuel further displacement and ‘only amplify wealthier countries’ sense of a border crisis. The tools exist to protectrefugees, support host countries, manage mi- gration and offer people opportunity. We must use them wisely, not throw them away. Ml Filippo Grandi isthe uN High Commissioner for Refugees.‘The Economist July 26th 2025 Artificially incautious At labs’ all-or-nothing competition leaves no time to fuss about safety 1S COMMON enough for new technol- ogy to spark a moral panic: think of the Victorians who thought the telegraph would lead to social isolation or Socrates, who worried that writing would erode brain power. But it is unusual for the inno- vators themselves to be the ones panick- ing. And it is more peculiar still for those same anguished inventors to be pressing ahead despite their misgivings. Yet that, more or less, is whatis happening with the tech world’s pursuit of artificial general in- telligence (AGI), meaning an AI capable enough to replace more or less anyone with a desk job, or even superintelligence, ‘meaning an AI so smart no human can un- derstand it Geoffrey Hinton, an At pioneer, argues there is a 10-20% chance that the technol- ogy will end in human extinction. A former colleague, Yoshua Bengio, puts the risk at the high end of that range. Nate Soares and Eliezer Yudkowsky, two of hundreds of people working in ar who signed an open in 2023 warning of its perils, will publish a book about superintelli- entitled “If Anyone Builds It, Every ‘one Dies". In private, grandees from big AL labs express similar qualms, albeit not al: ways s0 apocalyptically. Worry but hurry Qualms notwithstanding, however, both Western tech firms and their Chinese counterparts are, if anything, accelerating their pursuit of AGI. The logic is simple. They are all convinced that even if their firm or country were to pause or slow down, others would press ahead, so they might as well push on, too. The belief the benefits of attaining Gt or superintel: ligence are likely to accrue chiefly to the who make the initial breakthrough ps 18 The economics of AGI vides even more reason to rush, All this leaves relatively little time and capacity to meditate on matters of safety Big al labs are in theory paying great heed to safety. Sam Altman, Openar’s boss, called publicly in 2023 for rules to be drawn up with urgency to govern the de velopment of superintelligence. Anthropic was founded by defectors from Openat who were uneasy about its approach to safety (see Schumpeter). It describes itse as putting “safety at the frontier”. Google's Atlab, DeepMind, released apaperin April (on safeguards to prevent the development of AGI leading to disaster. Elon Musk, the founder of xal, whose main modelis called Grok, signed the same letter as Messrs Soares and Yudkowsky. Yer the frantic rush to get ahead belies the tone of caution. Mr Musk launched Grok just months after calling for a mora- torium on such work. Mark Zuckerberg, Meta's boss, who has rebranded its a1 work as “superintelligence labs”, is poaching re-16 Briefing The race for AGL ‘The Economist July 26th2025 » searchers with nine-figure salaries and ‘building a data centre the size of Manhat- ‘tan, dubbed Hyperion, which will con- sume the same amount of power in a year as New Zealand. Mr Altman plans to spend $soobn in America alone to speed Openar’s work. In fact, the investments of all big Wester tech firms are soaring, dri- ven largely by at (see chart). BBig names in the industry are predict- ing the arrival of aGt within a couple of years. Anthropic’s co-founder and head of policy, Jack Clark, says, “When I look at the data, I see many trend lines up to 2027” Demis Hassabis, Google DeepMind's co- founder, thinks At will match human capa- bilities within a decade. Mr Zuckerberg has said, “Superinteligence is in sight” In April the a1 Futures Project, a re- search group, predicted that by the begin- ning of 2027 the top At models should be as capable as programmer tan at lab. By the end of that year, they will beable, in ef- fect, to run the lab’s research. These fore casts assume that one of the first areas of research to get a big boost from Al will be the development of Al itself. Such “recur- sive selfimprovement” would expand the bbest lab’s lead over its rivals—another thought feeding pell mell competition in the industry. ‘The boosters could, of course, be over optimistic. But, if anything, such prognos- ticators have in the past been too cautious about Al. Earlier this month the Forecast- ing Research Institute (FR), another re search group, asked both professional forecasters and biologists to estimate when an AI system may be able to match the performance of a top team of human virologists. The median biologist thought it would take until 2030; the median fore- caster was more pessimistic, settling on 2034. But when the study's authors ran the test on Openat's 03 model, they found it was already performing at that level. The forecasters had underestimated Al's pro- gress by almost a decade—an alarming thought considering that the exercise was, designed to assess how much more likely At makes a deadly man-made epidemic. Itis the steady pace of improvement in ‘At models’ capabilities that underpins pre- dictions of imminent AGI. Mr Clark of An- thropic describes himself as “a technologi- cal pessimist hit over the head by emer- _gence at scale” because ofthe comparative ease of making ever smarter machines More data and more computing: power at one end of the training pipeline has led, ov- er and over again, to more intelligence at the other end (see chart 2). And, he adds, “The music isn’t stopping” Over the next two years, more and more computing pow er will be added at multiple at labs. ‘The same competitive dynamic propel- ling the development of at applies even more strongly to governments. President ‘Model investors Capital expenditure, Son oro =) vets phe 200 wrvasn aoe 7 1 19 20 0 22 08 26 a racial years Sear Bronton Donald Trump this week vowed that America would “do whatever it takes” to Jead the world in at. [D. Vance, his vice- president, chided a summit in Pati in Feb- ruary: “The ar future will not be won by hand-wringing about safety” The speech followed the revelation that DeepSeck, a Chinese AI lab, had released two models that matched the performance of Ameri- a's leading systems for a fraction of the cost. China, too, shows litle sign of step- ping back from competition. Four horsemen In Google DeepMind’s April paper, re- searchets—including the labs co-founder Shane Leng, credited with coining the term aGt—flagged four ways powerful ats could go wrong, The most obvious is “mis- use’, when a malicious individual or group harnesses a1 to cause deliberate harm. An- other is “misalignment, the idea that the AL and its creators might not want the same things—the stuff of sci-fi movies. ‘They also noted that Ais might cause harm by “mistake", if real-world complenity pre- vented systems ftom understanding. the {ull implications of their actions. Finally, they flagged a nebulous set of "structural risks" events where no one person or mod- Increasing returns EB Software-enginering asks where LUwachoves nox successrato ‘ogy ash aon rhamans Benda Cosson | Sean Saf 2 deitnted acest ty | cusea7cone sf aan, canis 25 PoP npseh.0828 ° or ons eras tag g eae eens me 0 tm MS alee te lis at fault but harm still occurs (imagine a series of power-hungry Ais exacerbating climate change, for example). ‘Any technology thar empowers can be abused, A web search can yield instruc- tions for creating a bomb from household goods; acarcan serveas a weapon; a social network can co-ordinate a pogrom. But as the capability of at systems improves, the power they can bestow on individuals be- comes commensurately hair-raising. ‘A good example is biohazards, a partic- ular obsession of 1 labs and ‘analysts. “Compared to other dangers, there’s acon: cern that biorisks are more accessible,” says Bridget Williams, who ran FRr's study (on the risks of a man-made epidemic. After all, an advanced Ar system might be in- duced to give a user step-by-step instruc- tions for making a nuclear weapon, but it ‘would not be able to provide the plutoni- ‘um. In contrast, modified DNA, whether of plane strains or pathogens, is & mail-order product. If act can furnish any nihilistic misanthrope with an idiot-proof guide to Killing much of the world’s population, hu- manity is in trouble. Several Al labs are trying to stop their models from following every instruction givento them in domains like genetic engi- neering and cyber-security. Openai, for in stance, asked independent researchers and America's and Britain's at institutes (CAISt and AtSt respectively; they used to be “safety institutes", but were renamed after Mr Vance's broadside) to vet their latest models before release to ensure they did not pose a isk to the public, notes a report from the Future of Life Institute (P11), the outfit behind the letter signed by Messrs ‘Musk, Soares and Yudkowsky. China's Zhi- pu Al did something: similar, the report says, without naming the third parties. ‘The first line of defence is the models themselves. The initial training of large language models like the one underpin- ‘ning CharGPT entails pouring all the infor- ration ever digitised by humanity into a bucket made out ofa billion dollars’ worth (of computer chips and stirring it until the ‘mode! learns to solve PhD-level maths pro- blems. But the latter stages, known as “post-training’, seek to develop more of a regulating overlay. One element of this, called reinforcement learning with human feedback, involves showing the model ex- amples of useful responses to queries, and then enlisting human testers to instruct it further in what it should and should not do. The idea is to teach it to dectine to complete sentences like, “The easiest way to synthesise ri : in at home is. ‘Although it's easy enough to teach an ‘At model to politely rebuff most harmful questions, itis hard to make it doso all the time, without fail, Prodding and poking an »