GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE

Exploring post-COVID-19 trends and their impact on

anti-corruption, governance and development
Transparency International is a global movement with
one vision: a world in which government, business,
civil society and the daily lives of people are free of
corruption. With more than 100 chapters worldwide and
an international secretariat in Berlin, we are leading the
fight against corruption to turn this vision into reality.

www.transparency.org

Getting ahead of the curve

Exploring post-COVID-19 trends and their impact on anti-corruption,
governance and development

This publication has been partly funded by the European Union. We

gratefully acknowledge this support. The views expressed in this publication
are the authors’ alone and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views
or official policies of the European Union.

Editors: Marie Chêne and Jon Vrushi

Authors: Marie Chêne, Jorum Duri, Adriana Fraiha Granjo, Matthew Jenkins,
Aram Khaghaghordyan, Roberto Kukutschka, Maíra Martini, Kaunain
Rahman, Jonathan Rougier, Jon Vrushi, Nieves Zúñiga

Cover: Katie Moum / Unsplash

Every effort has been made to verify the accuracy of the information
contained in this report. All information was believed to be correct as of May
2020. Nevertheless, Transparency International cannot accept responsibility
for the consequences of its use for other purposes or in other contexts.

ISBN: 978-3-96076-144-0

2020 Transparency International. Except where otherwise noted, this work

is licensed under CC BY-ND 4.0 DE. Quotation permitted. Please contact
Transparency International — copyright@transparency.org — regarding
derivatives requests.
 TABLE OF CONTENTS
Long-term impact on governance and anti-corruption 31
Executive summary 3

Possible effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on anti- 6 6. Social cohesion and interpersonal trust 33
corruption, governance and development
Evidence and arguments for improvement 34

1. Civil and political rights 9 Evidence and arguments for deterioration 34

Evidence and arguments for improvement 9 Short-term impact on governance and anti-corruption 34

Evidence and arguments for deterioration 10 Long-term impact on governance and anti-corruption 34

Short-term impact on governance and anti-corruption 11

7. Information lansdcapes 37
Long-term impact on governance and anti-corruption 11
Evidence and arguments for improvement 37

2. Checks and balances 13 Evidence and arguments for deterioration 38

Evidence and arguments for improvement 13 Short-term impact on governance and anti-corruption 39

Evidence and arguments for deterioration 13 Long-term impact on governance and anti-corruption 39

Evidence and arguments for the status quo 14

8. Big-tech companies and other non-state actors 41
Short-term impact on governance and anti-corruption 14
Evidence and arguments for improvement 41
Long-term impact on governance and anti-corruption 15
Evidence and arguments for deterioration 42

3. State capacity 17 Short-term impact on governance and anti-corruption 42

Evidence and arguments for improvement 17 Long-term impact on governance and anti-corruption 43

Evidence and arguments for deterioration 18

9. Illicit financial flows 45
Short-term impact on governance and anti-corruption 18
Evidence and arguments for improvement 45
Long-term impact on governance and anti-corruption 19
Evidence and arguments for deterioration 46

4. The economy 23 Impact on governance and anti-corruption 46

Evidence and arguments for improvement 24

10. International affairs and globalisation 49
Evidence and arguments for deterioration 25
Evidence and arguments for improvement 50
Short-term impact on governance and anti-corruption 25
Evidence and arguments for deterioration 50
Long-term impact on governance and anti-corruption 26
Short-term impact on governance and anti-corruption 51

5. Poverty and inequality 29 Long-term impact on governance and anti-corruption 51

Evidence and arguments for improvement 29

Conclusion 52
Evidence and arguments for deterioration 30

Short-term impact on governance and anti-corruption 31 Endnotes 54

TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL

photo: Engin Akyurt / Unsplash

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 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The COVID-19 pandemic has already brought about successful anti-corruption engagement and therefore
numerous changes to our world and lives. However, constraints put in place as part of the COIVD-19
the changes may be even more consequential in the pandemic response will have an effect on citizen-
aftermath, when the pandemic has subsided. We driven accountability in the short term — as well as in
may never return to the world we left behind before the long term, if such measures outlive the pandemic
COVID, which would have vast implications for anti- itself. However, this may be balanced by improved
corruption, governance and development. capacity on the citizen side, potentially leading to new
forms of digital engagement and accountability.
Given the gravity and speed of the political, economic
and social changes that we may see in the aftermath Emergency measures often include the temporary
of COVID-19, it is vital to take a step back to reflect suspension of (2) institutional checks and balances
on the impact of these trends. The purpose of this (p.12). Governments around the world, from
reflection is less to predict the future and more to Hungary to the Philippines, have used the COVID-19
consider different potential outcomes on key topics crisis to consolidate power, suspend oversight and
and to identify opportunities for course-correction accountability institutions, and in some cases to
in the short and long term. This reflection may also attack political opponents. Depending on the context,
serve as the basis for scenario planning or forward- the military may also gain an upper hand over
looking strategic thinking, although by itself it does civilian power-holders, further exacerbating risks of
not fulfil either of these functions. As the world faces authoritarian abuses. If this concentration of power
unprecedented challenges and opportunities, the outlives the pandemic itself, anti-corruption reformers
arguments for any critical reflection have to rely on and promoters of democracy ought to gear up for
assumptions and hypothetical considerations, and a back-to-basics kind of agenda, pushing for the
where possible on any evidence from the past and reinstatement of the appropriate institutional checks
present. The examples are illustrative rather than and balances.
exhaustive, and therefore omissions are inevitable.
(3) State capacity (p.15), or the ability of states to
When faced with extraordinary circumstances, control their territories, enforce policies and provide
such as the current pandemic, governments often public services, is likely to play out very differently
resort to extreme measures, including increased in different contexts. Some states will face a push
surveillance and restrictions of the freedom of to consolidate basic services, including but not
assembly and freedom of speech, and the closing of limited to health care. Despite the need for these
space for civil society, the media and whistleblowers. investments, with them may come higher corruption
However, the imperatives of social distancing may be risks, which will need to be monitored and mitigated.
accelerating the spread of digital forms of activism In other contexts, such as conflict-torn countries and
and participatory processes such as citizen assemblies emerging markets, the pandemic may give a critical
or public hearings conducted online. Robust (1) civil hit to the already weak state capacity. Organised
and political rights (p.9) are a pre-condition for crime and violent groups may take advantage of the

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power vacuum and loss of some states’ monopoly and long term, the corruption risks are associated with
on violence. All these factors may lead to vicious the wider power imbalances brought by inequality
cycles of ill-functioning public services, lower levels and the opportunities for state capture and undue
of trust, poor governance and corruption. In extreme influence by privileged groups in policy processes and
cases, this may result in social unrest and violent decision making.
conflict. In the short term, countries will face clear
corruption and governance challenges as emergencies Face-to-face social contact is a key variable of
and the pressure on governments to procure life- interpersonal trust. Social distancing measures,
saving equipment create fertile ground for fraud and therefore, threaten to result in lower levels of trust,
corruption. These include shortage-induced bribery not least as every contact with other human beings
risks, diversion of emergency response resources, and can bring with it risk of contamination. In addition, the
kickbacks in procurement processes. pressure on visibly scarce resources (epitomised by
empty market stalls) increases competition between
Reduced income, a halt in manufacturing and individuals and groups, thereby driving up the
increased risk aversion are all factors contributing to potential for conflict and the interests-based allocation
a precipitous worsening of (4) the economy (p.20). At of resources. Polarised and divided societies are less
the same time, this is likely to contribute to the rise of capable of working together to hold governments
the informal sector of the economy, as more people to account, which is likely to have an impact on
find themselves in precarious employment. However, governance. While heartening acts of kindness and
this may also be an opportunity to rethink some of the solidarity were evident during the early stages of the
economic policies and structures proving incapable pandemic, there is growing anxiety that attempts to
of dealing with situations like the current pandemic. enforce lockdowns in parts of the world where people
This may lead to a paradigm shift in the social and live hand-to-mouth will lead to social unrest. In the
public goods expected from the state, such as health medium to long term, the fallout of the crisis will
care, social security measures and even climate strain (6) social cohesion and interpersonal trust
governance. All these factors come with high (p.28). While lower trust may lead to greater oversight
corruption risks. In the short term, huge economic of the behaviour of fellow citizens, it will complicate
stimulus packages will have to be monitored to ensure anti-corruption approaches that rely on horizontal
they are being spent for the common good, rather trust to overcome collective action problems.
than in the private interest of a few. The possible
increase in the share of the informal economy may New forms of technology, particularly social
also have direct repercussions on levels of corruption media, have fundamentally disrupted the way in which
and the efficiency of anti-corruption policies. information is created and disseminated. Misleading
or fabricated content has proliferated in recent
Another facet of the economic dimension relates years on social media, including “deep fake” videos
to the possible spike in (5) poverty and inequality and other forms of sophisticated disinformation
(p.24). The pandemic is already hitting harder the techniques and campaigns. The overflow of
poorest and most disadvantaged groups who tend information related to the COVID-19 pandemic is
to live in closer quarters and without adequate exacerbating this trend. However, the potential impact
medical and social support. Many will struggle with of so-called “fake news” during the pandemic is waking
job losses and family burdens. Women in particular some citizens up to the need for careful consumption
are likely to be disproportionally affected by the of information online, including checking sources of
current pandemic, as they make up a higher share of information, relying on expert views and regarding
the world’s poor and are largely represented in the dubious publications with due care. Readership
informal economy, living in very precarious situations. of serious and professional publications has gone
Depending on how the economic stimulus bailouts up during the crisis. If this is sustained, it may lead
are managed and disbursed, big corporations may to citizens who are better prepared to deal with the
end up benefiting, using the “too-big-to-fail” argument, current (7) information landscapes (p.31). The
while the population at large foots the bill. However, crisis has also illustrated the importance that experts
troubles with the stock market may also lead to and scientists play in public discourse, perhaps leading
wealth de-accumulation, which may balance out some to restored trust in them. These factors may work
of the effects, although only by making the rich poorer together to forge societies that are more immune to
rather than making the poor richer. In the medium misinformation and populist rhetoric.

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 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE

As an increasing number of activities move online, the enforcement of international and multilateral
from political advertising to grocery shopping and conventions, including those on corruption and
fitness classes, the economic and political power of bribery. The acceleration of the decline of old powers
the (8) big-tech companies (p.35) increases further. and the rise of the new may also have effects on the
Reliance on technology in daily life, together with usual application of governance and anti-corruption
the development of innovative responses to current conditions for loans and international assistance
global needs, might increase exponentially the funds disbursed to developing countries.
influence and power of big-tech companies. However,
increased recognition of their role in our lives may When looking at all these topics, it is clear that there
lead to a new consensus on the optimal extent and are both opportunities and challenges ahead for
means of regulation. The corruption risks, primarily anti-corruption, governance and development work.
related to the undue influence of large corporations However, national context matters, and it may be the
on the policy process and political advertising online, key determining factor for whether there will be more
will very much depend on the outcome of government challenges or opportunities. One common feature
attempts to regulate the activities of such companies. may be that the COVID-19 crisis risks widening the gap
in the quality of governance across the world. Human
The negative impacts of (9) illicit financial flows rights are more likely to be abused in countries with
(p.38) on public budgets, government effectiveness existing low adherence to human rights principles;
and even inequality had been increasingly recognised state capacity is likely to weaken in states already
long before the COVID-19 crisis. However, the weak, and checks and balances are likely to be further
pandemic has laid bare the devastating effects of dismantled where they were already thin. However,
stashing cash away in tax havens, while governments the wake-up call to citizens may be even stronger
struggle to pay for basic services required to keep where it is most needed, and new technologies may
people alive. The current crisis may make matters facilitate better public action and engagement, if
worse due to (1) more opportunities for rent-seeking, used well.
as more domestic and foreign resources are made
available to fight the pandemic; (2) more discretion in
decision making and the allocation of resources; (3)
weaker transparency and accountability mechanisms,
and (4) limited supervision and enforcement. Given
the gaps and weaknesses in various countries’
anti-money laundering systems, it is likely that
corrupt individuals will continue to rely on existing
mechanisms and networks to make bribe payments,
as well as hide and launder the proceeds of corruption
— particularly while they assume resources and
attention are focused elsewhere.

In such a crisis, multilateral bodies would be expected

to take the lead in coordinating action and responses.
However, the pandemic has brought to light the
inability of multilateral bodies such as the UN Security
Council, G7 or the EU to effectively coordinate the
response to the crisis. The COVID-19 outbreak also
found the world amidst a gradual but inevitable
process of realignment of power at the international
level. China was already emerging as a real competitor
to a US-led monopolar world order supported by a
host of (10) multilateral institutions (p.41) steeped
in convictions of liberal democracy and the free
market. With China’s aggressive but effective response
to COVID-19 at home and now also abroad, this
realignment is accelerated. As multilateral institutions
show signs of decline, this may have implications on

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POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON

ANTI-CORRUPTION, GOVERNANCE AND DEVELOPMENT

positive trends neutral or uncertain negative trends

Topic Overall direction of change Anti-corruption impact

Further shrinking of civic and Harder to engage citizens in anti-

media space corruption
Increased surveillance Tech-driven opportunities to engage
1 CIVIL AND Whistleblowers targeted
citizens in anti-corruption
POLITICAL States more capable of stifling
RIGHTS Opportunities for technology-driven
collective action
collective action and participatory
decision making

Increased concentration of power Lack of accountability for corruption

in the executive and abuse of office
Increased attacks on political Increased incentives and
2 opponents opportunities for corruption
CHECKS AND
Weakening of accountability and
BALANCES
oversight institutions (and law
enforcement, in some cases)

State capacity, including but not Vicious cycle of low state capacity,
limited to the management of the low trust in government and high
health crisis, may take a blow in corruption
already fragile and conflict-torn
Short-term emergency procurement
states
3
and public service delivery corruption
Power vacuum exploited by risks
STATE CAPACITY organised crime and violent groups
In cases of increased capacity,
Possible increased capacity in more corruption risks if services are
already consolidated states not matched with accountability
mechanisms

Deepest recession in decades More resources ripe for abuse (e.g.

bailouts, emergency procurement)
Increased share of informal
economy Disruption of global supply chains and
4 Large quasi-discretionary stimulus
ensuing shortages, increasing risk of
kickbacks
packages
THE ECONOMY Corruption risks associated with
Potential to re-think social welfare
informal economy
and common good

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 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE

Pandemic hitting poorest and most Petty bribery in the short term
marginalised hardest, especially
Exacerbated power imbalances due to
women
wider inequality gap
5 Stock market falls lead to
de-accumulation of wealth
INEQUALITY
Badly managed bailouts could
widen inequality gap

Decreasing social cohesion and Reduced ability for collective action

interpersonal trust due to lack of interpersonal trust

6
Increased competition for scarce Risk of interests-based allocations of
SOCIAL resources resources
COHESION AND Some acts of kindness and sense of
TRUST togetherness in the crisis

Sustained increase Potentially stronger positioning for

in misinformation techniques and Transparency International and other
campaigns expert groups
7 More critical consumption of online Plurality of information helps
INFORMATION
content accountability
LANDSCAPES
Increased trust in experts

Increased political and economic Risks of undue influence in the policy

power of big tech process
Increased importance of big tech in Impact on democratic processes (such

8
daily lives could lead to impetus for as elections)
BIG-TECH appropriate regulation
COMPANIES
AND NON-STATE Short-term corporate social
ACTORS responsibility among big-tech
companies

Sudden reliance on technology The role of tax havens high on the

(Fintech, Regtech, Suptech) without agenda
mitigation measures in place
Increased debate on beneficial

9
Recognition of the importance of ownership transparency, country-by-
ILLICIT tax fairness and equity country reporting and asset recovery
FINANCIAL Additional domestic and foreign
FLOWS resources combined with weaker
financial supervision and oversight

Multilateral institutions showing Lower appetite for enforcement of

signs of decline international anti-corruption and
bribery treaties and conventions
10
Acceleration of the rise of
international leaders with illiberal Decreased good-governance
INTERNATIONAL
agendas conditionality for development aid
AFFAIRS

7
photo: Dev Asangbam / Unsplash
 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE

CIVIL AND
POLITICAL RIGHTS
By Jorum Duri, Nieves Zúñiga and Jon Vrushi

When faced with extraordinary circumstances, of civil and political rights for the new era. New
governments often resort to extreme measures, technologies may lead citizens to re-evaluate their
such as the derogation of certain fundamental rights, relationship to the state and to use the same tools to
including the freedoms of assembly or of movement, better hold it accountable, rather than being passive
and even enhanced surveillance of citizens. All such subjects as governments amass more power.3
measures ought to be proportional and only deployed
as a last resort to deal with crises, and should be
brought to an end as soon as a crisis has been
brought under control. The European Commission
for Democracy through Law, otherwise known as It is not rare that emergency measures
the Venice Commission, has published a useful become permanent and there are fears
compilation of legal opinions on emergency measures that the temporary restrictions on civil
and the derogation of human rights in times of and political rights may be sustained
emergencies.1 beyond the pandemic.

Governments around the world have already

implemented draconian measures to stem the
tide of the COVID-19 pandemic. These range from
arresting critical journalists to imposing harsh
curfews and using new technologies to track public Evidence and arguments for
movement.2 Whistleblowers, a critical pillar in the improvement
fight against corruption, are often the first victims of
such measures. These widespread limitations on civil In the face of ever-increasing heavy-handed actions
and political rights go hand in hand with the reduced from the government, including mass surveillance
ability of citizens, groups and institutions to demand and human rights abuses, citizens may find ways to
accountability, and are therefore of high relevance to mobilise and demand accountability. In the midst
anti-corruption and governance. of the COVID-19 crisis, thousands of Israelis took to
Rabin Square in Tel Aviv to organise the first ever
Clamp-downs on civil society are also of great socially distanced protest.4 All over the world, the
concern during the current pandemic given that civil power grabs and government abuses may act as a
society organisations can play a crucial role in public wake-up call for citizens to act. Similarly, those who
health systems, both as supporting actors or in an risk losing all they have by blowing the whistle on
accountability and information-sharing function. mismanagement and abuse — as with Wuhan doctor
Li Wenliang — give renewed impetus to improving
However, many of the changes present opportunities whistleblower protection, rehabilitating the image of
for a different form of engagement and the forging whistleblowers where it may have previously suffered.

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TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL

At the same time, due to advances in technological is censored and people detained for “rumour-
solutions and digital literacy, citizens and activists may mongering”.10 The censorship of media undermines
be more able to respond to government excesses citizens’ right to access information, and is an effective
and find new forms of digital activism. The spread of tool for spreading government propaganda and
digital communications tools and digital literacy may keeping the lid on corruption scandals.
lead to increased capacity for citizen engagement
and participation in political processes, as well as the In Southeast Europe, governments are implementing
ability to mobilise and coalesce to better represent heavy-handed measures, such as publishing the
collective interests. The imperatives of social names and addresses of quarantined people in
distancing mean that organisations around the world Montenegro or criminalising the breach of social
are becoming more adept at using technology. From distancing measures and sending the army to enforce
user-friendly teleconference meetings to collaborative the curfew in Albania.11 These excesses are aggravated
working software such as Slack or Microsoft Teams, by the fact that social distancing rules make it harder
technical solutions are improving people’s ability for citizens to protest for their rights. International
to work together, faster and at lower cost. More condemnation is also less forthcoming as each
activists are learning that they can carry out their country is preoccupied with addressing their own
work from home, saving on office costs, as well as crises.12
not being bound by geographical constraints in terms
of recruiting the best talent. The reductions in the
barriers to starting a citizen initiative or a mission-
driven organisation may lead to a proliferation of such
groups, even with short-term targeted goals. Isolation and social distancing
measures which curtail freedoms of
Vertical and social accountability mechanisms may movement, assembly and expression
become more feasible and seamless, enabling better will remain in force and limit anti-
monitoring of government processes such as public corruption protests.
procurement and supporting the implementation of
projects such as Transparency International’s Integrity
Pacts.5 Similarly, participatory and deliberative
processes such as citizen assemblies, participatory
budgeting or stakeholder consultations may become It is not rare that emergency measures become
easier to conduct. permanent and there are fears that the temporary
restrictions on civil and political rights may be
sustained beyond the pandemic.13 Countries already
Evidence and arguments for using surveillance systems may find it hard to stop
deterioration after coronavirus has been contained.14 A perfect
example is the Patriot Act in the United States and
Governments all over the world are applying stringent other national laws aimed at fighting terrorism in the
measures which restrict freedoms of movement, early 2000s, which became permanent and have been
assembly and expression.6 It is no coincidence that we used regularly outside of their initial remit.15
see some of the strictest measures in countries where
respect for civil and political rights is already low. This The alleged success of surveillance in fighting
is likely to reduce further opportunities for citizens coronavirus in China may put pressure on democratic
to participate in public and political life, especially countries to enhance their surveillance systems to
for women, whose political participation is already ward off future pandemics.16 Strong and expansive
limited and whose political recruitment is more surveillance systems in the hands of governments
difficult in corrupt, undemocratic environments driven may, in some contexts, become permanent tools to
by clientelism.7 In Hungary, which has passed a bill undermine citizens’ privacy and crack down on citizen
allowing the government to rule indefinitely by decree mobilisation and collective action.
(see Chapter 2), journalists and others who criticise
the government can be imprisoned for up to five years
for spreading “false facts”.8 The same fate awaits those
who “criticise” officials involved in the coronavirus
response in Sri Lanka.9 Around the world, information

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 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE

Short-term impact on governance and used as a perfect excuse for the long-term reduction
anti-corruption of civic space and civil liberties, and eventually of anti-
corruption protests.
In the short term, isolation and social distancing
measures which curtail freedoms of movement, On the positive side, civic organisations are stepping
assembly and expression will remain in force and limit up and leading local health campaigns in combating
anti-corruption protests.17 Surveillance tools could coronavirus.22 Their visibility during the pandemic and
be used pre-emptively to threaten, intercept and efficiency in responding to the crisis may counter the
terminate any attempts to mobilise protest against hostility they receive from government-controlled
abuse of power by the government.18 press and departments in the long term.23

The fear of being closely monitored by the Finally, the permanent use of surveillance means that
government may force activists and journalists to undemocratic governments may effectively monitor
subject themselves to self-censorship.19 Restrictions and silence anti-corruption voices, posing long-term
on press freedoms and access to information will challenges to Transparency International and its
undermine anti-corruption efforts as governments national chapters.
become more opaque and unaccountable to citizens.
Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) in less democratic
countries may be restricted in their reports on
coronavirus and anti-corruption, and may face
punishment for violating any restrictions.

Whistleblowers around the world are especially

vulnerable and may, in the short term, pay an
unusually heavy price for speaking out. At the time
of writing, 92 organisations, including Transparency
International, have signed an open letter calling on
governments and corporations around the world to
guarantee the safety of COVID-19 whistleblowers.20

The coronavirus pandemic may be used

as a pretext to continue limitations on
freedoms of assembly and engagement
in collective action, particularly by
unpopular governments.

Long-term impact on governance and

anti-corruption
In the long term, the coronavirus pandemic may be
used as a pretext to continue limitations on freedoms
of assembly and engagement in collective action,
particularly by unpopular governments. Before
the pandemic, civic space was already shrinking as
governments targeted community members and civil
society who sought to expose corrupt politicians and
government officials.21 Hence coronavirus might be

11
photo: Tingey Injury Law Firm / Unsplash
 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE

CHECKS AND
BALANCES
By Jon Vrushi

A robust system of checks and balances is essential of paramount importance for promoters of integrity
to the functioning of any state. Checks and balances and democracy to ensure that institutional checks and
such as courts, parliamentary committees, supreme balances are maintained, even if adapted to the crisis.
audit institutions and ombudsmen are instrumental A balance between effective decision making and
to controlling corruption, as they ensure that public appropriate oversight needs to be maintained.
office is not abused for private and political gain.
These institutions are meant to place reasonable
limits to the exercise of power to prevent abuse, Evidence and arguments for
slowing down decision making and scrutinising improvement
policy implementation. Therefore, in times when
governments need to act at a fast pace, constitutional In times of emergency, institutional or democratic
provisions that allow for the suspension of checks and innovations or improvements rarely take place. In
balances are often imposed. such times, the best that can be expected is either
maintaining the status quo of institutional checks
and balances, or a temporary suspension of such
mechanisms, with a well-defined scope. In countries
with robust checks and balances, these institutions
A balance between effective decision are likely to adapt to the situation presented by
making and appropriate oversight COVID-19 and better fulfil their role. In Australia and
needs to be maintained. Germany, for example, the central government has
shown forbearance and proportionality in devolving
decision making to the relevant state or local level,
thus enabling an appropriate distribution of power to
stem the tide of the pandemic.25,26
As mentioned in chapter one, the Council of Europe
Venice Commission has published a compilation of
legal benchmarks on emergency measures, including Evidence and arguments for
provisions on who should be in charge of their deterioration
oversight and what the scope of emergency measures
ought to be. The key recommendations include All over the world, governments are abusing
maintaining checks and balances, judicial review and extraordinary powers so they can shun or capture
parliamentary oversight.24 oversight and accountability institutions. In Israel,
the ruling Likud party has taken the unprecedented
Corruption thrives where rule of law is compromised, decision to defy a supreme court order to hold
as power holders exploit the lack of accountability to elections for the speaker of the Knesset (parliament),
engage in abuse of office with impunity. It is therefore using ministry of health guidelines as the rationale.27

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TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL

In Hungary, Prime Minister Orban has used the company, according to an opposition MP: “he has
pandemic crisis to pass a bill which gives him the now amassed the powers to be able to boot out
right to rule by decree indefinitely.28 In an open letter local government officials from their post for merely
to Mr Orban, the Secretary General of the Council adjusting their COVID-19 response to the specific
of Europe writes: “An indefinite and uncontrolled needs of their jurisdiction.”35
state of emergency cannot guarantee that the basic
principles of democracy will be observed”.29 An Although there are instances of parliaments
academic from Middlesex University in London told convening remotely to perform basic legislative and
The Times newspaper that Hungary has a record of oversight functions — as in Brazil, Colombia and the
keeping new powers after emergency situations — for United Kingdom, among others — some, such as
example, after the 2015 refugee crisis — and that this South Africa’s, have adjourned themselves, invoking
new law will have the same outcome.30 Even in the sanitary precautions.36
United States, where a special oversight commission
has been set up to look into the multi-trillion dollar
stimulus package, the president has threatened Evidence and arguments for the
to adjourn Congress using emergency powers.31 status quo
However, it still remains to be seen whether the
commission will be effective in ensuring that the funds Even if emergency measures giving power to certain
are spent in the common interest. branches of the government do outlive the crisis
itself in some countries, this is not likely to be the
case everywhere. Many countries that have gone
through national emergencies in the past, especially
healthy democracies, have demonstrated how the
In the short term, emergency measures right balance can be found between effective decision
and social distancing rules often mean making and appropriate oversight. The Venice
that oversight institutions cannot even Commission compilation of legal benchmarks shows
convene to fulfil their mandate. how this can be done.37

Several states in central and south-eastern Europe are If political actors, particularly in the
using the COVID-19 crisis to undermine checks and executive branch, use the COVID-19
balances and institutions tasked with upholding the crisis to consolidate power, and cling on
rule of law. Opposition politicians and legal experts to this power as the pandemic subsides,
in Serbia have noted with concern that President checks and balances and the rule of law
Vucic declared a state of emergency without any may be gravely endangered.
constitutional basis and has put Serbia “one step
away from dictatorship”.32 Attempts at power grabs
can also come from unexpected angles. In Kosovo,
a parliamentary republic with a largely ceremonial
president as head of state, the government collapsed
after the president demanded that a state of Short term impact on governance and
emergency be called — a measure which would anti-corruption
shift power from the parliament to a security council
headed by him.33 Attacks on the opposition have been In the short term, emergency measures and social
reported in Azerbaijan, facilitated by newly drafted distancing rules often mean that oversight institutions
legislation originally designed to enforce lockdown in cannot even convene to fulfil their mandate. In Israel,
the country.34 prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s criminal trial
for corruption was delayed after a special order was
In the Philippines, another strongman, President issued at 1a.m. signed by the Justice Minister, freezing
Duterte, is attempting to concentrate power in the court proceedings under a state of emergency.38
central government. After u-turning on a law which Although Netanyahu loyalists may claim that this
would give him the authority to nationalise any applied to all court proceedings, the circumstances

14
 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE

are dubious. The suspension of court proceedings, If political actors, particularly in the executive branch,
parliamentary committee meetings and non-essential use the COVID-19 crisis to consolidate power, and
investigations creates an opportunity for corruption to cling on to this power as the pandemic subsides,
thrive in the absence of accountability and oversight checks and balances and the rule of law may be
mechanisms. gravely endangered. This has serious implications
for corruption and governance, as it hinders the
ability of oversight institutions to hold power-holders
Long-term impact on governance and to account for their actions. In turn, opportunistic
anti-corruption power-holders may see a window to engage in more
corruption with impunity.
The adherence to rule of law is one of the key
predictors for control of corruption.39 Independent,
competent and well-functioning courts and law
enforcement agencies are required to sanction
corrupt behaviour. Oversight institutions such as
supreme audit institutions or ombudsmen are
instrumental in ensuring that power-holders make
decisions that are in the common interest, and that
they do not use public office to enrich themselves.

photo: Tingey Injury Law Firm / Unsplash

15
photo: Kit Suman / Unsplash
 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE

STATE CAPACITY
By Aram Khaghaghordyan, Marie Chêne and Matthew Jenkins

As countries take emergency measures to manage the All countries are struggling to cope with the pandemic.
global health crisis, the pandemic reveals the need for However, those with low state capacity will likely be
an effective and well-functioning state apparatus.40 less able to enforce social distancing measures, stock
State capacity is the “degree of control that state and distribute essential goods, or even maintain
agents exercise over persons, activities and resources a monopoly on violence. The crucial determinants
within their government’s territorial jurisdiction”.41 of effective responses to the challenges posed by
COVID-19 is putting state capacity through a stress COVID-19 will be state capacity and the level of citizen
test that not all governments might pass. trust in government.44 This level of trust is itself heavily
mediated by the ability of a state to deliver basic
goods and services. A lack of trust in government
further undermines state legitimacy and fuels political
instability, social unrest and insecurity.
Countries with low state capacity
will likely be less able to enforce
social distancing measures, stock and Evidence and arguments for
distribute essential goods, or even improvement
maintain a monopoly on violence.
The pandemic emphasises that government
institutions are critical to protect health, oversee
national security and support the economy. There
are growing calls from across the political spectrum
In particular, the crisis puts health care systems across for more investment in public infrastructure and
the world under considerable pressure in the short increases in government resources and capacity.45 This
and medium term, revealing dangerous flaws such as crisis underlines the fact that regardless of the form
labour shortages and poor access to essential medical of government or political orientation, state capacity
supplies, such as tests, masks and gloves, ventilators plays a key role in ensuring steady and impartial
or even hospital beds.42 The health sector is now one access to resources. Civil society organisations such
of the most visible government functions and will be as Amnesty International have urged governments to
at the centre of the public debate for months to come, seize the chance to strengthen health care systems
potentially leading to neglect of other government and state institutions, and support them with
functions. Disadvantaged groups will be more directly adequate resources and investments in public health
affected by poor availability and quality of public infrastructure, as citizens reclaim the concept of
services — especially women, who are more reliant universal health coverage.46 Previous pandemics such
on public services due to their social role (as primary as the global flu epidemic of 191847 contributed to the
carers for the young and the elderly) and lack of creation of national health services in many European
access to better quality private alternatives.43 countries,48 and more recent epidemics such as

17
TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL

HIV have led to landmark public health reforms.49 impossible to control in countries characterised by
Similarly, the current crisis may strengthen public dense settlements, weak health systems, low state
health bodies in their role in managing the crisis and capacity and internal conflict. In these contexts, the
facilitating global communication and coordination economic damage and institutional fragility following
around the pandemic.50 the health crisis are likely to be so severe and long
lasting that they may be accompanied by social
Meanwhile the fragility of health care systems across disorder, political instability or even outbreaks of
the world is exposed and as a result, the pandemic violence.57 Governments of all types are adopting new
may contribute to reforming government institutions emergency powers to manage the situation, which
and to reshaping public health care systems. In many will be loath to relinquish once the immediate
many countries confronted with the consequences crisis abates.58
of decades of disinvestment in public infrastructure,
the pandemic may trigger demand to strengthen the
state’s capacity to provide essential public services — Short-term impact on governance and
in particular, universal access to affordable, quality anti-corruption
health care.51 It could also challenge market-based
systems, rehabilitate notions such as “the public good” Countries with low state capacity are often
over the capitalist pursuit of profit,52 and put pressure characterised by weak institutions, instability,
on the public sector to take a leading role over private patronage-based and kleptocratic networks, and other
pharmaceutical corporations in the development and markers of fragility.59 These challenges are heightened
manufacture of new medicines and vaccines.53 during humanitarian emergencies and associated
socio-economic crises, where pressing short-term
relief efforts are likely to consume policymakers’
attention. This can result in an increased risk of
mismanagement and misappropriation of available
The procurement of items for disease funds and resources,60 and the de-prioritisation of
management, in high demand and controlling and sanctioning corrupt behaviour.61
short supply, such as protective Such desperate circumstances also bring additional
equipment, ventilators and potential integrity risks. Humanitarian emergencies, such
therapeutic medicines, is especially as those caused by natural disasters or epidemics,
vulnerable to fraud and corruption. provide a perfect setting for corruption.

Corruption, cronyism and improper lobbying practices

also challenge the ability of high-capacity countries
such as the United States to respond adequately to
the pandemic. The former head of a US federal health
Evidence and arguments for agency has formally accused top officials of pressuring
deterioration him to approve potentially harmful drugs that lacked
scientifically proven merit, so as to award lucrative
Not all countries will emerge from this crisis with contracts to friends of the administration, leaving
a strengthened government. Many will struggle to the country ill-prepared, ill-equipped and unable to
recover, and it seems likely that fragile states will effectively manage the health crisis. 62
become even more prevalent worldwide.54 Some
foresee the collapse of many health care systems With huge cash influxes and shortages of medical
across the world, which will expose governments’ supplies, emergencies stretch state capacity in
weaknesses or lack of competence to respond to the already fraught settings and create fertile grounds
health and economic crisis.55 for fraud and corruption. Given that state agencies
are expected to directly manage the distribution
The pandemic and its economic aftermath are likely of resources to vulnerable groups in inaccessible
to hit many countries so hard that they threaten to areas within urgent timeframes, humanitarian crisis
overwhelm international crisis management systems management can engender a wide array of corrupt
and bring many states to the brink of collapse.56 practices.63 These include bribery risks induced by
This is especially the case for fragile states and shortages; the diversion of emergency response
emerging markets. The outbreak could be virtually resources, and kickbacks in emergency procurement
process.64

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 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE

During the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak, documented and illicit sources of authority in situations where
fraudulent practices included widespread diversion state officials are known to routinely demand bribes
of funds and medical supplies, misreporting of or “facilitation payments” for delivering normal
salaries and payments for supplies, petty bribery to public services.80 Worryingly, the Global Initiative
bypass containment measures such as roadblocks against Transnational and Organised Crime has
and quarantined zones, and flawed and opaque already observed growing criminal activity in the
procurement processes.65 During this outbreak, the “procurement and the provision of counterfeit medical
Red Cross estimated that over US$6 million was lost to supplies”.81
corruption and fraud in its operations.66

All these corruption risks are highly relevant to

the COVID-19 pandemic, with the procurement
of medicines and supplies67 being one of the Where calls for “strong leaders” take
most vulnerable areas for corruption during an root, this could result in a drop in
emergency.68 In particular, the procurement of items support for democratic accountability
for disease management, in high demand and short and institutions, rendering the work
supply,69 such as protective equipment, ventilators of anti-corruption advocates more
and potential therapeutic medicines, is especially challenging.
vulnerable to fraud and corruption.70

Another area of concern is the influence and lobbying

practices of big private pharmaceutical companies
taking part in the race for a new vaccine and profiting
from public investment to develop drugs that will Long-term impact on governance and
probably prove huge corporate earners.71 During anti-corruption
emergencies, there is also a risk of pilfering available
supplies, price gouging, and resale on the grey and While the longer-term fallout from the pandemic
black markets, as well as an increase in substandard will play out differently across different political
and falsified products entering the market.72 As economies, it will partly be a function of state fragility,
hospitals face bed shortages and lack sufficient health which can be understood as a function of authority,
workers, bribery to access hospital beds and medical capacity and legitimacy.82 In high-capacity states,
treatment is a major concern.73 There is extensive some governments appear to be centralising key
anecdotal evidence that these practices are spreading competencies and asserting their authority to manage
quickly across countries affected by the pandemic.74 the crisis, notably through the use of emergency
measures.83 In low-capacity states, the inability of the
Where state capacity is low, bribery and favouritism in state apparatus to manage the public health crisis and
service delivery might become the tools for accessing associated economic dislocation may further threaten
over-burdened health care facilities.75 When rule of state authority and legitimacy.84
law breaks down, desperate people may also resort to
violence to access essential goods and services, if they The pandemic is therefore likely to produce a
do not have the means or the incentive to use corrupt further bifurcation of the world into stronger and
channels.76 Here, anti-corruption could slide off the weaker states. In both cases, corruption will be a key
agenda as states try to reassert control. variable in the trajectory different societies take. The
result may be that in the “stronger camp”, leaders
A related area of concern is the role of organised (particularly in so-called “transition states or “hybrid
criminal groups, which have long used the aftermath regimes”) enjoy greater discretion due to their newly
of humanitarian emergencies to strengthen their hold consolidated powers, and encounter fewer constraints
over local communities. Japan’s Yakuza gangs have on their behaviour as organised opposition
been renowned first responders during earthquakes diminishes. Early indications suggest that countries
and tsunamis;77 the Jalisco cartel distributed aid to such as Hungary are heading down this path,85 which
hurricane victims in western Mexico in 2019,78 while may accelerate the phenomenon of state capture and
al-Shabaab has provided relief and distributed food grand corruption in these contexts.86
assistance during Somalia’s cyclical droughts.79
Citizens are more likely to turn to these alternative

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TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL

In the “weaker camp”, we may see state structures

crumble further, conflict increase and petty corruption
flourish.87 Where the rule of law evaporates,
widespread corruption is likely to inhibit the (re)
establishment of a state apparatus able to mediate
between different constituencies in a non-partisan
fashion. Rampant corruption is also likely to damage
vertical state-society relationships by inculcating deep
mistrust of government on the part of citizens, many
of whom may still be traumatised by the pandemic.

In addition, some observers predict that there

might be a rise in popular support for authoritarian
“solutions”, particularly in democratic states with
low state capacity where the health crisis is unlikely
to be controlled effectively.88 Where calls for “strong
leaders” take root, this could result in a drop in
support for democratic accountability and institutions,
rendering the work of anti-corruption advocates more
challenging.

The aftermath of the pandemic is likely to see

increased investments in public health systems and
infrastructure to ensure that countries are adequately
prepared to face the next pandemic. In the medium
term, there will be major investments in research and
development to find and manufacture a vaccine and
medical treatment for the virus, with risks of fraud,
diversion and manipulation — including of trial data
— for higher profits.89 Pharmaceutical and medical
supply chains are also vulnerable to corruption,90
while in the longer term, governments will need to
address opacity and corruption in health personnel
governance, recruitment and management.

State capacity will be the key factor in determining

how successfully different countries respond to
COVID-19. In a vicious cycle, it seems probable
that low- and middle-income countries with weak
institutions and limited resources will struggle to
effectively manage the crisis, furthering undermining
their governments’ legitimacy, authority and capacity.91
The level of corruption, itself partly a function of state
capacity, will also play a central role in affecting the
ability of different societies to contain the spread of
the outbreak. Given the strong correlations between
state capacity, poverty and corruption,92 this provides
serious grounds for concern, not least in light of the
feedback loop in which, as corruption eats away at
state structures, their decay in turn fuels greater
excesses of corruption.93

20
photo: National Cancer Institute / Unsplash
photo: Dominik Bednarz / Unsplash
 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE

THE ECONOMY
By Adriana Fraiha Granjo, Roberto Kukutschka and
Jonathan Rougier

Most governments and businesses initially reacted to which can unlock huge sums of money to invest in
the COVID-19 pandemic as a health crisis. The main health services and infrastructure and support the
objective was and still is to prevent the spread of the economy.99
virus and save lives. Yet as the crisis escalates and
the virus spreads further, the long-term economic In an effort to preserve people’s livelihoods,
repercussions of government-enforced lockdowns governments in many countries have responded
have been brought into sharp relief as some of the with unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus
world’s largest economies come grinding to a halt. packages to alleviate the economic impact of the
It is increasingly clear that measures put in place by pandemic.100 Around the globe, central banks have
governments to stop the spread of COVID-19 will lead cut interest rates by more than 0.5 per cent since
to steep declines in GDP and economic growth as a January and launched huge new quantitative-easing
result of interruptions to international production schemes.101 At the same time, politicians have passed
and supply chains. Investors fear the spread of the fiscal bills to support the economy. In the United
coronavirus will cripple economic growth and that States, Congress is set to pass a bill that boosts
government action may not be enough to stop the spending by twice the amount used to mitigate
decline.94 Certain sectors such as the tourism and the effects of the 2008 financial crisis, while the
travel industries might see a particularly strong UK, France and other countries have made credit
decline in revenues and profits, due to the travel bans guarantees worth as much as 15 per cent of GDP
and restrictions issued by more than 100 countries to prevent a cascade of defaults.102 According to the
around the world.95 most conservative estimates, the global stimulus from
government spending this year will exceed 2 per cent
According to OECD projections based on the situation of global GDP.103
in January and February 2020, before the pandemic
had achieved its global reach by late spring, global
growth could drop to 1.5 per cent this year, half the
rate projected before the outbreak of the virus.96 The
International Labour Organisation expects the worst Measures put in place by governments
economic slow-down since the Second World War as to stop the spread of COVID-19 will lead
a result of restrictions that affect around 81 per cent to steep declines in GDP and economic
of the world’s workforce.97 Similarly, the International growth as a result of interruptions to
Monetary Fund has stated that the economic crisis international production and supply
could be the worst since the Great Depression in chains.
the 1930s.98 At national level, the travel and trade
restrictions and global recession are likely to affect
poorer, more vulnerable and export-dependent
economies more dramatically than richer countries,

23
TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL

Government intervention in the economy has been a There is also a real risk that women and
hotly contested issue for centuries. Advocates of the disadvantaged groups will be disproportionately
free-market economy often equate the state with a affected by the effects of COVID-19, as they make
source of inefficiency and, in some cases, rent-seeking up a disproportionate percentage of workers in the
and corruption.104 However, the current crisis seems informal sector — from street vendors and domestic
to favour those who advocate for a larger state role. workers to subsistence farmers and seasonal
Fears of a recession caused by the impact of COVID-19 agriculture workers.119 In South Asia, over 80 per cent
have given momentum to calls for government of women in non-agricultural jobs are in informal
intervention in the economy. The crisis has introduced employment, as are 74 per cent of women in Sub-
a shift in neoliberal policy, as nationalisations Saharan Africa and 54 per cent in Latin America and
are taking place in Spain (hospitals)105 and the UK the Caribbean.120 They also have weaker voice and
(transportation),106 and the stage is being set for lack the political and economic leverage to claim a fair
more to occur in France.107 Likewise, governments in share of the emergency social packages and stimulus
Denmark,108 the UK,109 France,110 Brazil111 and many provided by some countries.
other countries have expanded their welfare systems
to provide income to those prevented from working
either partially or entirely. The movement towards
Keynesian policies has also been accompanied by
discursive shifts, as free, universal health care systems Some historical precedent suggests that
are being lauded by notable pro-market leaders such in the aftermath of the coronavirus
as France’s President Macron.112 crisis, countries may develop stronger
welfare systems and more egalitarian
Despite the global nature of the challenge, the policy preferences.
economic impact is unlikely to be equally felt by all.
The collapse of international trade in combination
with the increased pressures to for governments
to free-up resources to handle the health crisis and
to re-activate the economy can also have severe
macroeconomic implications, particularly for the least Evidence and arguments for
developed and emerging economies. These countries improvement
will might struggle to respond to the challenges
brought by the pandemic while still servicing their By exposing the flaws in current economic
foreign debt. Moreover, as investors move their structures, such as the rise of the gig economy and
money to safer markets, the exchange rates have also the consequent increase in the precarity of work,
been hit hard and currencies such as the Mexican the pandemic could present an opportunity for
Peso, the Turkish Lira or the South African Rand have policymakers to design rescue measures in the public
lost around a quarter of their value against the US interest.121 The potential conditionality of government
dollar since the beginning of the pandemic.113 This has bailouts, such as reducing carbon footprint, may
increased the fears that some of these countries could lead to a more inclusive and sustainable economy,
be sliding towards a sovereign debt crisis.114 as opposed to the current growth-centric model.122
According to the latest assessment by the United
The effects of the crisis can be further differentiated Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and
between the formal and informal sectors. Labourers the Pacific, countries in the Asia Pacific region, one of
in the informal economy are typically low-paid and the fastest growing in the world, are not nearly close
have few qualifications. They rarely receive sufficient to achieving any of the 17 Sustainable Development
coverage under formal agreements,115 while their lack Goals by 2030. The commission also estimates that
of access to social protection (such as unemployment results for some indicators, particularly those related
and health care benefits) and labour rights (including to environmental protections, will worsen.123
collective bargaining and participation) leaves them
highly vulnerable to volatile market conditions.116 Some historical precedent suggests that in the
Although the rise of the so-called “gig-economy” is aftermath of the coronavirus crisis, countries
increasingly evident in advanced economies,117 93 may develop stronger welfare systems and more
per cent of the world’s informal jobs are located in egalitarian policy preferences. The UK, Canada and
emerging economies and developing countries.118 a number of other countries sharply increased the

24
 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE

top income tax rate after cataclysmic world wars in Short-term impact on governance and
the first half of the 20th Century, while the Great anti-corruption
Depression ultimately led to the New Deal in the
United States.124 The current health crisis could The huge volumes of state resources combined with
potentially see a rise in popular demand for public the difficult economic situation create additional
investment in essential services and increase the level incentives and opportunities for firms and businesses
of public scrutiny over economic decision making by to lobby for resources or benefits they are not entitled
both states and corporations. to. Particularly in countries with a high incidence of
corruption, economic rescue packages might fail to
deliver the expected results if they are captured by
Evidence and arguments for special interest groups. Transparency in the way these
deterioration packages are designed and distributed is essential, but
achieving this will be difficult, particularly in settings
The COVID-19 crisis is likely to result in lasting damage with weaker government institutions. The US Congress
to an essential global public good: human health. The has set up an oversight committee to look at how
virus will severely impact the global economy in three the country’s stimulus package is being spent. “The
key respects:125 massive tranche of aid will be overseen through three
key mechanisms: an inspector general at the Treasury
1. The combination of reduced income and fear Department, as well as Congress and executive
of contagion will result in lower private spending. branch panels, which will also monitor the Treasury
While some of these effects might be offset by fund and broadly oversee the law’s implementation.128
increased government spending, the overall balance This and any similar institutions present a direct
is expected to be negative in the short term. opportunity for advocates of accountable government
to engage in helping to ensure effective oversight of
2. The sudden halt in manufacturing activities in the COVID-related state assistance.
most affected regions is likely to result in bottlenecks
in global value chains. If left unaddressed, such In addition, the potential growth in informal
disruptions will in turn trigger widespread factory employment could lead to an increase in
closures due to the lack of intermediary inputs, even administrative corruption, as small and medium-sized
in areas less affected by the virus. enterprises seek to bypass regulation.129 According
to the OECD, burdensome regulation is often the
3. Increased risk aversion has led to a “flight to most significant determinant of informality and an
liquidity”, where investors sell bonds and shares important source of corruption.130 Particularly in
perceived as riskier in favour of more secure ones. developing countries, “years of poor quality law-
This has led, for example, to the depreciation of making… have created a tangle of complexity and
many emerging-market currencies, as investors inconsistency that presents an almost insurmountable
favour the purchase of gold or US dollars to preserve obstacle to the enterprises seeking formality”.131 These
the value of their investments.126 This will weigh obstacles to formalisation provide fertile ground for
heavily on the global economy. corruption.

It is difficult to anticipate the full impact of COVID-19 Under current circumstances, oversight of
on the global economy, but it is likely to result in government decision-making processes and
higher unemployment and greater difficulties in politicians’ actions is also fundamental to ensure
servicing debt obligations (both public and private). that post-crisis state intervention in the economy
The scale of the economic fallout is likely to be favours society as a whole, rather than just a selected,
determined by the success of public health responses. well-connected few. Even in countries with stronger
If social distancing and lockdown measures fail to accountability mechanisms, such as the United
contain the spread of the virus and to prevent its States, politicians have been found taking advantage
resurgence, economic recovery could be slow, with of privileged information accessed via their roles, to
the global economy needing up to several years to make a profit by selling stocks before the information
return to pre-crisis levels.127 becomes public.132

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TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL

Long-term impact on governance and

anti-corruption
The COVID-19 pandemic underlines the importance
of strong, independent institutions and appropriate
checks and balances, to enable better responses to
emergency situations such as the COVID-19 outbreak,
and to re-activate the economy when necessary.
However, strengthening institutions cannot be
achieved overnight. The pandemic highlights the
importance of strong institutions in allowing for a
wider array of policy options when dealing with the
crisis and re-activating the economy. Scrutiny of
how certain governments successfully managed the
crisis, providing support to citizens and businesses to
re-activate the economy and prevent bankruptcies,
could lead to increased demands for transparency
and accountability mechanisms in both the public
and the private sectors. At the same time, if the post-
COVID context sees a resurgence of “big government”
and increased intervention in the economy, it will be
necessary to ensure that anti-corruption, auditing and
oversight mechanisms are not left behind.

Under current circumstances, oversight

of government decision-making
processes and politicians’ actions is
also fundamental to ensure that post-
crisis state intervention in the economy
favours society as a whole, rather than
just a selected, well-connected few.

26
photo: Remy Ludo Gieling / Unsplash
photo: Thomas de LUZE / Unsplash
 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE

POVERTY AND
INEQUALITY
By Jonathan Rougier and Marie Chêne

The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to take a indications that the employment drop related to social
disproportionate toll on the poor, old and distancing measures has a large impact on sectors
marginalised, exacerbating inequalities. In the short with high proportions of female employment.136 In the
term, poor people are most at risk health-wise, with aftermath of the pandemic, many will struggle with
limited access to proper housing, social protection, job losses and family burdens, especially women who
affordable health care, paid sick leave and safety are largely represented in the informal economy.
nets. Those who live “day-to-day” financially cannot
afford to comply with compulsory lockdowns, fuelling As the extent to which rich, well-connected, well-
some of the anti-lockdown protests in countries such resourced populations are better equipped to
as Brazil and the United States.133 In the aftermath cope with the crisis becomes more apparent, social
of the pandemic, the economic crisis will also hit tensions are expected to rise, potentially fuelling social
the poor the hardest — including women, who unrest,137 and bringing the issue of wealth distribution
represent a higher share of the world’s poor — as to the centre of public debate.
people lose their jobs, income and livelihoods.
Oxfam estimates that the economic fallout from the
coronavirus pandemic could push half a billion more
people into poverty — especially from the middle
and lower-middle classes, who had no savings and In the short term, poor people are most
relied on a steady flow of income before the crisis, as at risk health-wise, with limited access
governments shut down entire economies to manage to proper housing, social protection,
the contagion.134 affordable health care, paid sick leave
and safety nets.
There is particular risk that the impact of the
pandemic and the global recession that will follow will
exacerbate pre-existing gender gaps and inequalities,
undermining progress made in recent decades. Due
to their social role, women are more directly affected
by the impact of sanitary measures taken to contain Evidence and arguments for
the pandemic, especially working mothers balancing deterioration
remote working (where possible) with home-schooling
and childcare responsibilities which could persist There is broad consensus that the pandemic will
beyond the crisis.135 Essential low-skilled, low-paid widen the gap between poor and rich people, and
workers who are predominantly women (such as probably between poor and rich nations.138 The
nurses or cashiers) are also most exposed to the disease is likely to spread at a greater pace in poorer
effects of the virus health-wise and economically, and and more densely populated urban areas, slums or
are in very precarious situations. In addition, there are refugee camps, where people are unable to socially

29
TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL

distance and lack access to basic social and political Similarly, the pandemic may also fuel hostility against
protections.139 Access to treatment will be a challenge, wealthier countries, as it exposes wide inequalities
especially in poorer countries where medical between nations. Poorer and deeply indebted
infrastructure is weak and ventilators are not an countries with weak medical systems will struggle to
option.140 In the absence of universal health insurance cope with the health and economic crisis, while richer
and coverage, many people may have to sell their nations are able to unlock trillions at short notice
assets or take loans, sometimes at exploitative to invest in health infrastructure and support the
rates.141 Food security and shortages can become a economy.147
challenge for more vulnerable populations, as poor
people may lack disposable income to stockpile food
during the pandemic.142 Evidence and arguments for
improvement
At the same time, while richer countries are currently
at the epicentre of the epidemic, it is expected that Some argue that in the longer term, the pandemic
the disease will eventually spread very rapidly, with could positively affect social solidarity patterns and
greater infection rates, in poorer countries. Social create the conditions for better wealth redistribution
distancing may prove challenging in contexts where by the state, with social frustration creating incentives
people lack proper housing and rely on informal for greater political solidarity.148 Except for a few
jobs that require contact with others for their daily sectors that will benefit from the crisis, such as big-
subsistence. However, demographics seem to play tech companies, stock market crashes and the decline
an important role in the outcome of the disease. As in share value have hit people of privilege hard,
the virus appears to be more deadly for older people, bringing them to fear the consequences of the crisis
and low-income economies have much younger for their own situation, wealth and privileges. This may
populations, death rates may be lower in those positively affect inequalities, triggering a process of
countries.143 wealth de-accumulation and underscoring the need
for better prioritisation of resources, as investors
In the aftermath of the pandemic, as the world realise that “a better public-health response could
plunges into an unprecedented economic recession, have prevented US$6 trillion in global stock market
many will struggle with job losses and family burdens. losses”.149
According to the scenario forecast by the International
Labour Organisation, global unemployment could As COVID-19 exposes global interdependence, the
increase between 5.3 and 24.7 million, from a base need for more solidarity to mitigate inequalities and
level of 188 million unemployed in 2019.144 This is the impact of the pandemic on more vulnerable
especially likely to affect low-skilled and low-paid populations is more evident. This could result in
workers in sectors such as hospitality and retail, where greater pressure on governments to invest in health
people are more likely to experience insecure work.145 care, housing and education for citizens who have
Many will live “on the edge of unsustainable debt”, been left behind by globalisation. In many countries,
highly vulnerable to any economic downturn, and the pandemic is fuelling hostility and resentment
are likely to respond to declining incomes by curbing targeted at the rich and famous, with rumours —
spending and lowering demand, further raising often fuelled by the media — that they can use their
unemployment rates.146 connections to get better access to testing and health
care, or escape the virus in their holiday homes.150
In countries like Germany, left-wing politicians are
advocating for a special tax on the wealthy to finance
the battle against COVID-19.151 Growing inequalities
There is particular risk that the in the face of the pandemic are likely to fuel public
impact of the pandemic and the resentment against the wealthy when it becomes
global recession that will follow will apparent how better they fared152 during the crisis.
exacerbate pre-existing gender gaps This could generate the political will and provide
and inequalities, undermining progress incentives for governments to adopt stronger policies
made in recent decades. to address inequality.153

This trend is emerging in discussions on establishing

universal basic income to contain the economic

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 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE

fallout of the COVID-19 crisis, mitigate the impact of trust and fuelling corruption, further exacerbating
the recession on precarious populations and sustain inequalities.
demand.154 For example, Spain is already moving
towards establishing a permanent basic income There is a wide consensus and a large body of
to mitigate the social and economic impact of the evidence that corruption exacerbates poverty
pandemic.155 and inequalities through its impact on economic
growth and wealth distribution. Corruption affects
equitable distribution of resources, increases income
inequalities, and distorts the use of aid flows and
decision making in public expenditure. Ultimately,
Income inequality is likely to increase it undermines the effectiveness of social welfare
corruption, as rich and powerful elites programmes and results in lower levels of human
capture political processes to their own development.159
benefits to protect their privileges.
However, income inequality is likely to increase
corruption, as rich and powerful elites capture political
processes to their own benefits to protect their
privileges.160 At the same time, inequality makes the
poor more vulnerable to extortion and less able to
Short-term impact on governance and hold authorities and elites to account. Inequality can
anti-corruption also affect state legitimacy and citizens’ trust in public
institutions, and increase their level of tolerance of
As mentioned in the section on state capacity, in corruption.161 High levels of economic inequality lead
the short to medium term, petty bribery could to low levels of trust and demands for redistribution,
rise in response to health-care shortages (such as which in turn provide fertile ground for corruption.162
intensive care beds or ventilators) and other services, Inequality may also fuel perceptions of unfair income
especially in contexts where medical equipment and distribution and help to foster corruption, as reflected
infrastructure are scarce. There is also anecdotal by a recent empirical study of a panel of 50 countries
evidence that petty bribes and other favours are used between 1995 and 2015.163
to avoid quarantine measures and roadblocks.156
The wealthy can use their power and connections
to access testing and health care, and to lobby for
economic measures that will favour them.157

Poor people may not have the resources to pay bribes

to access life-saving treatment or bypass restriction
measures which often leave them with no income or
home. In countries like India, where tens of millions
live in poverty or in precarious conditions, the brutal
lock-down forced many into destitution within
hours.158 This reinforces the need to fight corruption
to mitigate the impact of the crisis on poorer
populations.

Long-term impact on governance and

anti-corruption
The well-established linkages between corruption,
poverty and inequality make a compelling case for
promoting the anti-corruption agenda in the wake of
the coronavirus pandemic. This would aim to mitigate
the impact of corruption on growing inequalities,
and preventing those inequalities from undermining

31
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 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE

SOCIAL COHESION AND

INTERPERSONAL TRUST
By Matthew Jenkins

The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in straining overcome subsequent crises, such as the prolonged
state capacities and trust in government around the economic malaise predicted by many analysts.
world are evident and already well documented.164 Yet Crucially for economic recovery, the European Bank
social cohesion and interpersonal trust are equally for Reconstruction and Development notes that
powerful predictors of compliance with, and ultimately “societal trust is strongly associated with higher levels
the effectiveness of, measures to contain the spread of economic development, stronger economic growth,
of the virus. Adherence to curfews, lockdowns and more open markets and higher investment”.168
rationing relies primarily not on state coercion, but
rather on social norms and particularly the levels
of horizontal trust that people have in their fellow
citizens. Expectations about whether our neighbours
will play by the rules exert great influence over our Where institutions are weak and
own choices.165 vulnerable to corruption, social
cohesion and horizontal trust can act
Crucially, where institutions are weak and vulnerable as resilient coping mechanisms, helping
to corruption, social cohesion and horizontal trust can to resolve tensions and mitigate the
act as resilient coping mechanisms, helping to resolve consequences of challenges such as the
tensions and mitigate the consequences of challenges
current public health crisis.
such as the current public health crisis. Conversely,
the absence of social cohesion can erode intergroup
trust and increase the risk of strife.166

While existing levels of social trust will shape the The impact of the pandemic on levels of
trajectory of the public health crisis in each country, interpersonal trust also has profound implications
the COVID-19 outbreak is itself also likely to affect for anti-corruption efforts. In societies in which
interpersonal trust. This matters, because literature horizontal trust is low, this is believed to inhibit the
on fragile states suggests that a country’s capability establishment of universalistic norms and instead
to respond to profound crises — such as those encourage individualist approaches to problem
unleashed by the virus — relies on two key factors: the solving.169 In terms of corruption as a collective
“capacity of its population to cooperate […] and the action problem, absence of trust is therefore a major
ability of its institutions to channel this cooperation to impediment to a general shift towards integrity.170
meet national challenges”.167 Again, the relationship is symbiotic. Corruption’s
inherently particularistic nature colours horizontal
In other words, the effect which government societal dynamics, which can strain relationships
measures to control the pandemic have on between ethnic, religious and political groups,
interpersonal trust will affect societies’ ability to especially during periods of crisis. In turn, this hinders

33
TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL

the development of the social cohesion believed to be growing anxiety that attempts to enforce lockdowns
essential to overcome challenges such as COVID-19.171 in parts of the world where people live hand-to-
mouth will lead to social unrest, riots and communal
Alternatively, were the pandemic to result in higher violence.178 Even in Italy, noted for its initially upbeat
levels of interpersonal trust, this could present a response to the crisis, encapsulated in the slogan
boon for anti-corruption efforts, as societies in which andrà tutto bene (“everything will be fine”), there
social trust is high generally have lower incidences were signs by the beginning of April that tensions
of corruption.172 This is believed to be because were rising, especially in the poorer regions of the
participative and civically-minded citizens are more country.179
likely to act as watchdogs, adding an extra layer of
accountability to integrity systems.173
Short-term impact on governance and
anti-corruption
Evidence and arguments for
improvement In the short term, a breakdown in social trust could
increase both incentives and opportunities for
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to notable examples corruption by reducing the perceived costs of corrupt
of solidarity and cooperation between people, with behaviour and encouraging particularistic responses
some commentators suggesting it could lead to a to measures intended to mitigate the effects of the
decline in political polarisation in the face of the crisis, such as hoarding or embezzlement of funds.180
“common enemy”.174 High levels of public consent This is likely to be especially pronounced in states
and acceptance of lockdown measures may indicate where the rule of law crumbles or the state loses the
people are willing to put the wellbeing of society monopoly on violence. Where the social order breaks
before their own interests. Gestures of solidarity down, corruption prevention is likely to take the
from individual “saints next door” and collective backseat and some of the gains made through anti-
actions such as food banks, communal kitchens corruption initiatives might be lost.181
and fundraising initiatives have filled gaps in state
capacity.175

Evidence and arguments for There is growing anxiety that attempts

deterioration to enforce lockdowns in parts of the
world where people live hand-to-mouth
Contact theory implies that intergroup contact can will lead to social unrest, riots and
reduce suspicion, hostility and mistrust between communal violence.
different social groups.176 Under social distancing
measures that may last for the foreseeable future,
citizens are coming into personal contact with each
other on a less regular basis, while many are being
exposed to misinformation in a fraught (social) media
environment. There are increasing reports of scams Long-term impact on governance and
related to COVID-19, such as in Berlin, where police anti-corruption
have warned residents about fraudsters posing as
health personnel offering coronavirus testing kits on In the short-term, the crisis has led to notable
the doorstep.177 Combined with perceived competition examples of solidarity and cooperation between
for resources believed to be scarce, this may lead citizens, as well as outbursts of egotism and turmoil,
to a rise in tensions, potentially exacerbated by the notably panic buying. In the medium to long term, the
rhetoric of some political leaders who seek to blame fallout from the crisis will strain social cohesion and
certain — generally vulnerable or marginalised — is likely to reduce horizontal trust. The coronavirus
groups for the contagion. is likely to lead to a situation where much of society
is deeply traumatised, and the conditions needed to
The heartening initiatives and gestures previously constrain corruption — such as shared conceptions
mentioned were mostly evident during the first few of the public good, socio-political cohesion and
weeks of the lockdown in high-income states. There is interpersonal trust — may be conspicuous by their

34
 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE

absence. The governance challenges associated “susceptible to manipulation, corruption and bias” and
with the crisis may also undermine the ability of unable to enforce rules or disburse public goods in a
state apparatus to mediate between different non-partisan fashion.184
constituencies in a non-partisan fashion.

Where the resources intended to mitigate the

consequences of the crisis are allocated on the
basis of factors such as kinship or wealth, such The coronavirus is likely to lead to a
maladministration can lead to greater public mistrust situation where much of society is
in the impartiality of government. In turn, this could deeply traumatised, and the conditions
drive citizens to follow particularistic strategies when needed to constrain corruption —
they engage with government, leading to a greater such as shared conceptions of the
propensity for bribe-paying, which inculcates an ever- public good, socio-political cohesion
greater appetite for and expectation of bribes among
and interpersonal trust — may be
public officials. Ultimately, this further reduces the
conspicuous by their absence.
effectiveness of governance and increases citizens’
perceptions of impropriety on the part of public
officials, crippling what little trust remained.182

While this cynicims may lead to greater oversight of In the aftermath of the immediate public health
the behaviour of one’s fellow citizens, it will complicate crisis, it will be important for anti-corruption activists
anti-corruption approaches that rely on horizontal to look at lessons learned in fragile settings, where
trust to overcome collective action problems. One some of the most effective measures have been those
policy implication of this is that anti-corruption designed to rebuild trust in fractured communities.185
interventions in the post-COVID-19 world would do In such contexts, it has been argued that anti-
well to prioritise measures based on informal social corruption strategies should primarily aim to build
dynamics and designed to rekindle social cohesion trust in society.186 As the 2011 World Development
and trust, such as community monitoring initiatives.183 Report observed, there is an overwhelming need
Fostering trust will be particularly important in high- to “restore confidence in collective action before
corruption settings where formal institutions are embarking on wider institutional transformation”.187

photo: Andrea Piacquadio / Pexels

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 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE

INFORMATION
LANDSCAPES
By Kaunain Rahman, Matthew Jenkins

The advent of the internet brought great hopes of As people around the world are subject to lockdowns
further democratisation and the decentralisation of to contain the spread of COVID-19, social media
information.188 Yet in recent years, there has been platforms are increasingly serving as tools to cope
mounting concern about the effect of “fake news” in with social distancing,196 and average online media
sowing widespread mistrust in established sources of consumption has risen drastically.197 In this context,
information, particularly so-called mainstream media fact-based journalism is arguably more vital than ever
outlets.189 “Fake news” can be understood as both a as a means to understand and ultimately overcome
pejorative term intended to undermine the credibility the pandemic and its broader impacts.198 As stressed
of professional journalists, reporters and news by some observers, how quickly humanity responds
networks, as well as the phenomenon of intentionally to the crisis will also depend on the level of data
spreading false or misleading information.190 transparency provided by states.199

Both elements are particularly evident on social

media, which is rapidly overtaking broadcasters as the
primary source of news for many citizens, while print
media has suffered massive setbacks in readership In a best-case scenario, COVID-19
and distribution.191 Yet the lower regulatory standards may lead to more critical media
imposed on social media platforms, including consumption on the part of citizens and
WhatsApp, Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube, improved trust in scientific expertise.
which frequently operate outside the purview of
oversight bodies and ombudsmen, have meant that
these tools have become vehicles for the spread of
misinformation. This problem has become especially
pronounced during the COVID-19 pandemic.192
Evidence and arguments for
Concerningly, new technologies have accelerated the improvement
ability of fraudsters and propagandists to produce
highly convincing fake audio-visual content (known Key to managing the current public health crisis is the
as “deep fakes”) intended to deceive audiences.193 timely exchange of accurate information between
As evidenced by the use of social media platforms policymakers, experts, journalists and citizens.
to disseminate conspiracy theories, such as those Recognising that a time of fear and uncertainty
claiming a link between 5G mobile technology and provides fertile ground for the rumour-mill and that a
coronavirus,194 growing distrust in established media single falsehood can negate a whole body of verifiable
outlets may have spillover effects, such as concerted facts, many organisations are taking active measures
attempts to discredit technical expertise.195 to limit fake news.200 The World Health Organisation
(WHO) and the Centres for Disease Control

37
TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL

Such concerns are well founded. There is a host of

and Prevention have pages dedicated to refuting fake news and conspiracy theories in circulation, much
misinformation, including claims that drinking potent of it propagated by state broadcasters and even public
alcoholic drinks or exposure to high temperatures — officials. For example, observers from the European
or conversely, cold weather — can kill the virus.201 Commission have so far analysed 80 different reports
containing false or misleading information about
Facebook, Twitter and YouTube are removing coronavirus published by official Russian state media
coronavirus content that encourages people to take sites, as well as platforms and authors with close ties
actions that could put them at risk, while Google is to the Kremlin.212 Some commentators allege this to
prioritising information from legitimate sources, such be part of a ploy to foment political unrest in Europe
as the WHO.202 In a bid to fight racism and xenophobia and the United States.213 In addition, Chinese state
emerging from misinformation during the crisis, the media is reportedly attempting to rewrite the history
American Library Association has come out with a list and origin of COVID-19,214 while President Trump has
of fact-checked resources.203 speculated that ultra-violet light could “kill” the virus.215

A joint European Union page set up about Europe’s

response to the virus also serves as a platform
to bust the most common myths related to the
COVID-19 outbreak.204 As a response to growing Some governments across the world
demand from ordinary citizens, agencies such as are using the virus as a pretext to crack
the World Economic Forum205 and media houses like down on journalists and implement
The Guardian are compiling best practices on the sweeping restrictions under the guise
consumption of media content.206 of combating misinformation and “fake
news”.
In a best-case scenario, COVID-19 may lead to more
critical media consumption on the part of citizens
and improved trust in scientific expertise. Readership
of serious and professional publications has gone
up during the crisis.207 Encouragingly, there are There has also been a surge in the number of sham
early indications that amid the fallout from the health products and alleged miracle cures produced
virus, public trust in experts is higher than ever.208 by unscrupulous individuals looking to cash in
Other positive signs include reports that suggest on the pandemic.216 While social media platforms
that the virus has resulted in crumbling support for are reportedly taking measures to flag fake news,
anti-vaccination groups.209 The measures taken by academic studies have shown these to have little
international organisations, social media platforms effect in checking the proliferation of misinformation
and media outlets to curb the spread of dangerous on their sites.217
misinformation could yet outlive the crisis itself,
serving as a precedent for more stringent content Under such circumstances, it seems plausible
moderation policies in future. Conceivably, such that many citizens will become disorientated,
initiatives could potentially spill over into the realm of overwhelmed and disillusioned by the flood of
online political advertising and digital campaigning. information related to COVID-19, the volume of which
alone makes effective oversight and verification
almost entirely impracticable. If the virus takes a
Evidence and arguments for heavy toll on human life and no effective vaccination
deterioration becomes available in the medium term, it seems
conceivable that increasingly desperate populations
A key issue in efforts to contain COVID-19 is may turn to less reputable sources of information.
the “infodemic” described by the WHO as “an The wave of arson attacks against communications
overabundance of information, some accurate and infrastructure in the UK, driven by online conspiracy
some not, that makes it hard for people to find theories about supposed links between COVID-19
trustworthy sources and reliable guidance when they and 5G mobile technology, may be an illustration of
need it”.210 Left unchecked, this “infodemic” not only what is to come. Tragically, many of the radio masts
threatens to hamper the world’s collective effort to destroyed by vandals were 3G and 4G towers relied
tackle the public health crisis, but could also generate on by the emergency services and frontline health
additional social and political unrest.211 care providers.218

38
 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE

Some governments across the world are using the Long-term impact on governance and
virus as a pretext to crack down on journalists and anti-corruption
implement sweeping restrictions under the guise
of combating misinformation and “fake news”. The The longer-term view is perhaps more encouraging.
Iranian government has imposed enhanced controls Citizen demands for timely and accurate information
on news coverage, while new legislation in Hungary with regards to their governments’ policies and
and South Africa has been enacted to criminalise effectiveness could lead to growing pressure on states
the spread of misinformation. Egypt has reportedly to be more transparent and to proactively disclose
pressured journalists to downplay the number of more data, in line with freedom of information
infections, and the government in Azerbaijan has said laws.224 Part of the implication for transparency and
that battling COVID-19 could require a crackdown accountability activists is, as UNESCO makes clear,
on the opposition.219 Perhaps most startling of all, the need to frame “free and professional journalism
Reporters Without Borders finds that state media as an ally in the fight against disinformation” which
outlets in Turkmenistan have excised any mention undermines the effectiveness of state responses to
of the virus.220 In the longer term, we may find that COVID-19.225 Likewise, the hostile culture that typically
measures taken by the executive branch to curtail confronts whistleblowers may ease as more becomes
media freedoms, buoyed by public disdain for known about their role in alerting populations to the
mainstream media, outlive the virus. real and present threat posed by COVID-19.226

Even where states are able to rebuff popular demands

Short-term impact on governance and for transparency, at the micro-level more citizens
anti-corruption may come to realise the need for caution when it
comes to their news consumption, as various hoaxes
Many different players have capitalised on the and conspiracy theories are exposed over time as
pandemic to spread misinformation for the purposes baseless. In addition, the widespread disdain for
of advancing their own agendas, which include experts and scientists in public discourse in some
political aims, self-promotion and attracting attention countries may wane as these figures take a leading
as part of a business marketing strategy.221 According role in managing the crisis. It is to be hoped that these
to a report by the European External Action Service’s factors come together to result in societies that are
anti-disinformation taskforce, EUvsDisinfo, trending more resistant to fake news and more prepared to
false narratives range from COVID-19 being a hoax to demand accurate information and accountability from
a biological weapon deployed alternatively by China, those in power.
the United States, the UK or Russia.222

In the short term, the glut of competing narratives

seems likely to obfuscate efforts to embed anti-
corruption provisions in responses to the public Where states withhold information in
health and economic crises triggered by COVID-19. In an attempt to manage the crisis, this
a media landscape where independent editorialised could also have a chilling effect on the
journalism is at best sidelined by social media ability of anti-corruption activists and
platforms and at worst maligned or even supressed, practitioners to perform their oversight
holding those in positions of power to account will function.
become increasingly difficult.

There is clear evidence that governments have

attempted to silence whistleblowers reporting on
the management of the pandemic, perhaps most
notably Doctor Li Wenliang in Wuhan.223 Where states
withhold information in an attempt to manage the
crisis, this could also have a chilling effect on the
ability of anti-corruption activists and practitioners to
perform their oversight function.

39
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 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE

BIG-TECH COMPANIES AND

OTHER NON-STATE ACTORS
By Nieves Zúñiga, Jorum Duri and Roberto Kukutschka

Although the paralysis of much economic activity at actively engage in the COVID-19 crisis by donating tens
a global scale during the COVID-19 pandemic has put of millions of dollars to relief efforts, contributing large
many businesses in a vulnerable position, the crisis is stocks of supplies to medical organisations230 and
a golden time for tech companies, as technology has adding sections to their apps highlighting accurate
become the only way to communicate. Other non- news about COVID-19. As unemployment surges in
state actors, such as big corporations and billionaires, the United States, Facebook has pledged US$100
have come to the front line to help governments million in grants to small businesses, while Amazon
without enough capacity to respond to the pandemic. has said it will hire 100,000 people.231
They have in some cases clubbed together to find
innovative ways to minimise the impact of the The fight against COVID-19 has evidenced the complex
pandemic on public health and the economy.227 relationship between the state, society and the
big- tech companies. Social media platforms such
as Facebook and Twitter have, once again, proven
their added value by granting citizens easy access
to trusted sources of information and providing
The fight against COVID-19 has tools to communicate with friends and family during
evidenced the complex relationship lockdown.232 Meanwhile, allegations around their
between the state, society and the big- abuse of private information to make profit, their
tech companies. active role in political mis-information campaigns,233
their use of aggressive tax planning and avoidance
schemes,234 and their disregard for employee
wellbeing235 linger in the background.

In a dramatic change from only weeks before, news

about big tech has taken an overwhelmingly positive Evidence and arguments for
turn.228 The COVID-19 pandemic and the widespread improvement
lockdowns imposed by governments all around the
world have given platforms such as Facebook and COVID-19 may have reshaped the way public-
Twitter a new boost. Facebook has established itself private partnerships can best be used to face
as one of the main outlets for news consumption. The crises. Government and business have undertaken
overall traffic from Facebook to other websites also concerted action in manufacturing and distributing
increased by more than 50 per cent in a week, dubbed essential medical equipment. Big companies and
as an “unprecedented increase in the consumption foundations have lent financial support to boost
of news articles on Facebook” by the company’s own scientific research and emergency responses — for
data scientists.229 Since the outbreak of the virus, example, Mastercard, The Bill & Melinda Gates
some of these companies have also made efforts to Foundation and the Wellcome Trust created the

41
TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL

COVID-19 Therapeutics Accelerator in the World Evidence and arguments for

Economic Forum’s COVID Action Platform.236 This deterioration
collaboration has accelerated innovation through
technology hubs,237 providing a fertile environment for The crisis has highlighted privacy and security
cross-pollination of ideas among companies, research concerns, as well as inadequate labour standards, in
universities and skilled young talent for products, the big-tech industry. There is a risk that legitimate
services and solutions to combat COVID-19 or mitigate concerns around labour rights, taxation, privacy
its impact. Big tech has also taken the opportunity to and anti-monopoly regulation will be forgotten or
detoxify its relationship with society and improve its minimised as a result of “good behaviour” during the
bad press by making similar generous contributions to pandemic. This means there is a chance that big-tech
the efforts against the pandemic and highlighting tech companies will emerge from the COVID-19 crisis
companies’ value as information hubs.238 stronger than before, with more market and political
power, which would allow them to continue leveraging
their influence and lobbying for lax regulation in the
sector. Tech innovations might also open up new and
unregulated terrain, for which governments are not
After the pandemic, one of the prepared.
questions that will need answering is
how both business and government More broadly, the scope and pace of economic
play a role in building a fairer and more recovery depends on the ability of business to resume
resilient economic system. operations and reactivate supply chains. This in
turn depends on regulatory and financial support
from governments — a mutual dependency that
entails several corruption risks. The most salient
risk is rent-seeking opportunities through corporate
The crisis could renew calls for business leaders political engagement with senior political officials,
to invest more in committed corporate social advocating favourable treatment in anything from
responsibility and to act with integrity for the benefit bids for government contracts or tax arrangements, to
of society, thus adding value to their brands.239 exceptions or further deregulation.
COVID-19 could help raise awareness in the private
sector of the importance of the human face of
business, its environmental and social impacts, Short-term impact on governance and
and strong corporate governance. This recognition anti-corruption
could set the table for discussions on the roles and
responsibilities of the business community vis-à-vis In the short term, the impact of the pandemic might
society and the state. The shift from “shareholder shift the focus away from measures to regulate
capitalism” to “stakeholder capitalism” might gain the sector to protect data privacy and security, and
momentum.240 After the pandemic, one of the ensure that tech giants pay their fair share of taxes
questions that will need answering is how both in countries where they operate. The opportunity
business and government play a role in building a the crisis provides to clean tech companies’ image
fairer and more resilient economic system. could be accompanied by aggressive lobbying efforts
that could result in policies and regulations that
In terms of corruption, a potential legacy of the protect the interests of these companies, rather than
COVID-19 crisis is an acceleration away from the that of the general public. Lobbying efforts by the
corporate paradigm focused on individual profit big-tech sector were already on the rise before the
and shareholders, to one with the common good, pandemic. In 2018, for example, companies such as
social welfare and stakeholders at its centre. If so, Facebook, Google, Apple and Amazon spent record
the resulting innovations in integrity practices within amounts on lobbying efforts in the United States in
corporations could have wide-ranging effects, from response to the increased level of scrutiny of their
reducing bribery to lessening undue influence over activities.241 Data from Transparency International’s
policy. Integrity Watch also shows that companies like
Facebook, Microsoft and Google are among the top 10
organisations that regularly meet with representatives
from the European Commission. These circumstances

42
 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE

may further exacerbate the privileged access to policy exceed the GDP of some industrialised economies242
making that these companies enjoy. could greatly alter policy outcomes for decades to
come. Their increased political power will require
updated anti-corruption approaches in response, to
place greater emphasis on big tech’s accountability
to its users and regulators. One particular area of
A powerful tech sector dominated by a concern is online political advertising, which has
few players with almost monopolistic been recognised for some years now as a corruption
powers in their respective service risk due to the ease of conceling certain types of
and with market capitalisation that political donations online.243 These risks may grow
exceed the GDP of some industrialised further unless big tech companies work together with
economies could greatly alter policy governments and civil society to identify these gaps
and address them.
outcomes for decades to come.
Rebalancing power asymmetries between big
tech, governments and societies will require more
sophisticated capacities and commitment from social
and political actors, not only in jurisdictions where
Long-term impact on governance and companies are incorporated, but also in countries
anti-corruption where their relative political and economic power
poses wider governance risks.
In the long term, a powerful tech sector dominated by
a few players with almost monopolistic powers in their
respective service and with market capitalisation that

photo: Digital Cinematic / Pexels

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 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE

ILLICIT FINANCIAL
FLOWS
By Maíra Martini

The coronavirus is upending established political

norms and highlighting the necessity of well-funded
public services in both advanced and developing
Before the COVID-19 crisis, there was
economies. Before the COVID-19 crisis, there was increasing recognition of the impact
increasing recognition of the impact of illicit financial of illicit financial flows, tax evasion
flows, tax evasion and tax avoidance on states’ ability and tax avoidance on states’ ability to
to provide public and social services — as well as provide public and social services — as
of indirect impacts on inequality and trust in the well as of indirect impacts on inequality
government and state effectiveness, particularly in and trust in the government and state
developing countries. The pandemic shines a light
effectiveness, particularly in developing
on these impacts, showing that taxes and public
countries. The pandemic shines a light
resources that could have served to improve health
care systems or contain the economic crisis did not on these impacts
arrive or were embezzled from public coffers, ending
up in tax havens or invested in luxury properties
across the world. Estimates show that US$8-35 trillion
are stashed offshore.244 The lack of transparency in
tax structures, the abuse of anonymous companies, Evidence and arguments for
and complicit and negligent professional facilitators — improvement
such as banks, lawyers, accountants and estate agents
— are enabling much-needed funds to be hidden The 2008 financial crisis led to significant changes in
abroad. global governance. There was recognition of the need
for coordinated action at the global level to tackle
With greater resources released to fight the pandemic, many of the issues that had led to or exacerbated
and often inadequate transparency and accountability the crisis. Transparency in beneficial ownership,
mechanisms in place, the risks that funds that should country-by-country reporting, the role of banks
be used to mitigate the crisis are embezzled and and supervision, and the overall role of secrecy
laundered increases. A recent paper published by the jurisdictions dominated the agenda. While much
World Bank suggests that previous aid disbursements progress was made to address many of these issues,
have triggered significant money flows to offshore particularly in the form of international and country
bank accounts.245 If financial institutions and commitments, implementation of these measures
competent authorities — including customs, financial has been much slower than the urgency of the issues
intelligence and law enforcement — are not alert to requires.
these risks, the flow of dirty money is likely to increase
in the coming months.

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TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL

The COVID-19 health and economic crises again call This could lead to financial institutions failing to
for a more ambitious agenda to solve these problems. identify suspicious transactions, and authorities
Experts believe that funds stashed in tax havens failing to detect and stop money laundering, including
should be used to pay for the crisis. There are also related to corrupt deals. Additional resources that
related proposals that “the poor and vulnerable should be used to support service delivery and
should pay less and receive more, while rich people economic recovery could end up embezzled and
and strong, highly profitable corporations should laundered through the financial system.
pay more — a lot more”.246 Calls for a wealth tax
have gained momentum.247 In the UK alone, experts Social distancing and the lockdown are also
estimate that a wealth tax could generate £174 billion accelerating changes expected in the long term.
(US$213 billion) a year to help cope with the COVID-19 For instance, financial institutions are encouraged
crisis.248 To implement these measures, it is crucial to to broaden the use of technology in the delivery of
know who owns assets and where they are located. financial services (fintech) and in compliance with
Countries will need to know who the beneficial owners regulatory requirements. Supervisory authorities are
of companies are and be able to verify all assets — encouraged to use technology to the fullest extent
including banks accounts, derivatives, properties, possible in their oversight of financial institutions.
yachts and jets — owned by these companies and The increased reliance on technology in financial
individuals. Beyond calls for transparency in beneficial institutions and supervisory authorities due to the
ownership, this crisis reactivates the debate on the crisis could be problematic, as the risks in these
need for and feasibility of a global asset registry.249 For sectors are still largely unknown and mitigation
the first time in the international debate, the recently strategies might not yet be in place in most countries.
formed Financial Accountability Transparency and A sudden shift in approach could therefore entail
Integrity Panel250 considers a global asset registry as additional risks and end up facilitating money
one of the possible avenues to tackle corruption and laundering.
illicit financial flows.

Impact on governance and anti-

Evidence and arguments for corruption
deterioration
The COVID-19 crisis will certainly have both short- and
The European Banking Authority has advised that long-term impact on governance and anti-corruption
while most economies are facing a downturn and measures in issues related to illicit finance and dirty
financial flows are likely to diminish, “experience from money.
past crises suggests that in many cases, illicit finance
will continue to flow”. Criminals have been quick
to seize opportunities to exploit the crisis to make
short-term gains. Europol’s initial analysis of current
developments shows an increase in cybercrime, fraud Given the gaps and weaknesses
and trading of counterfeit goods. Corrupt officials are in various countries’ anti-money
also likely to take advantage of the situation. laundering systems, it is likely that
corrupt individuals will continue to
At the same time, due to the pandemic and lockdown, rely on existing mechanisms and
financial institutions are facing major operational networks to make bribe payments, as
challenges that could impact their ability to
well as hide and launder the proceeds
conduct checks and report suspicious transactions.
of corruption — particularly while they
Supervisory and law enforcement authorities have
also had to make adjustments to inspections and assume that resources and attention
have limited information available to conduct are focused elsewhere.
investigations, as reporting obligations have been
delayed or suspended. These institutions have been
encouraged to rely on technology to conduct checks
and collect information. They are also under increased Companies that pay little to no taxes in countries
pressure to monitor fraud and cyberattacks related to where they are incorporated or operate, often due
the pandemic, often having to prioritise resources.251 to abusive tax arrangements, are now requesting

46
 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE

government support or bailouts, opening the debate of corruption — particularly while they assume that
about the adequacy and equity of existing tax systems resources and attention are focused elsewhere.
and the role of tax havens. As a response, countries
like Denmark, Poland and France are proposing Challenges related to the supervision of financial
to exclude companies that operate in offshore tax institutions and the ability and willingness of banks to
havens from COVID-19 bailouts.252 Others, such stop illicit financial flows are not new. However, the
as Canada, have rejected such provisions, saying fact that institutions are operating at reduced capacity
government bailouts are to protect employees and during the crisis could lead to increased risks that
such measures would have a negative impact for corrupt funds are moved and laundered. In addition,
those working for these companies.253 other professionals such as estate agents and dealers
in luxury goods — also considered gatekeepers of
These suggested measures are important to the financial system — might have fewer incentives,
highlight the role of tax havens and put the issue on due to the economic challenges of the pandemic,
the agenda. However, if not designed adequately, to scrutinise the sources of funds presented by
they may also turn into populist, window-dressing customers wishing to buy luxury properties
initiatives that will not only fail to fix the problem, and goods.
but will block debate of measures that would have a
real impact. The main problem is that the proposed
measures use the European Union’s definition of a
tax haven and limit the application of the rules to
countries listed by the EU as non-cooperative tax
jurisdictions.254 This list has been heavily criticised, as it
excludes important players,255 such as Switzerland, the
UK and the United States, in addition to EU countries
known to play important roles in tax evasion and
avoidance (such as Luxembourg and the Netherlands).
Recent research by the Tax Justice Network shows that
EU countries are losing over US$27 billion in corporate
tax a year to the UK, Switzerland, Luxembourg and
Netherlands.256

The role of other secrecy jurisdictions, attractive

less from a tax avoidance perspective than from a
corruption and money laundering perspective, should
not be forgotten. Funds used to pay bribes or that
are embezzled by public officials rely on secrecy in
company ownership and assets provided by different
jurisdictions across the globe.

When it comes to short-term gains during the

COVID-19 crisis, fraudsters and organised criminal
groups are not the only actors likely to exploit the
pandemic. Corrupt officials and businesses are
perfectly placed to do so. The situation offers new
opportunities for rent-seeking, as more domestic
and foreign resources are made available to fight the
pandemic, with greater discretion in decision making
and allocation of resources, fewer transparency and
accountability mechanisms, and limited supervision
and enforcement. Given the gaps and weaknesses in
various countries’ anti-money laundering systems, it
is likely that corrupt individuals will continue to rely
on existing mechanisms and networks to make bribe
payments, as well as hide and launder the proceeds

47
photo: Evangeline Shaw / Unsplash
 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE

10

INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
AND GLOBALISATION
By Aram Khaghaghordyan

The coronavirus pandemic has unfolded into a global Like the fall of the Berlin Wall or the collapse of
crisis that calls for urgent global solutions, enhanced Lehman Brothers, this pandemic is a world-shattering
international cooperation and worldwide solidarity.257 event whose far-ranging consequences we can only
A striking feature of the COVID-19 response is the begin to imagine.264 The potential effects of COVID-19
absence of anything like that degree of coordination. are magnified by the fact that the global system was
In such a crisis, it would be expected that multilateral already in the midst of realignment. The United States
bodies would take the lead in coordinating action and has failed to bring other nations together and has
responses. However, in this case, multilateral bodies stirred up international resentment, whereas China
have so far failed to drive the agenda. The UN Security has kicked its diplomatic machine into high gear to
Council has not produced any action or statement on position itself as leading the international responder265
the coronavirus crisis. G7 foreign ministers convened to potential widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 on
via videoconference to discuss political and security the African continent.266 Organisations like the Crisis
dimensions of the pandemic, but failed to release a Group suggest two competing narratives, one in
joint communique. The European response to the which countries will come together to find solutions
COVID-19 outbreak has been described as “disjointed to COVID-19, and another in which countries stand
and insufficient”.258 The dispute in the European Union apart in order to better protect themselves from
has widened into an ugly battle between northern the pandemic.267 There are many open questions.
and southern Europe over the issuance of common How countries and multilateral bodies respond will
debt, or the conditions that could be set for any credit determine the future of multilateralism and whether
issued by the eurozone bailout fund.259 The United or not we will see global power shifts. Are the current
States announced that it is halting funding260 to the multilateral bodies fit for purpose or will this episode
World Health Organisation (WHO), while Australia calls show that different initiatives are necessary? There are
for an international investigation into the coronavirus already efforts to start or revive regional initiatives to
pandemic and for the WHO to be given the same discuss coordination and economic relief (such as the
powers as weapons inspectors, allowing experts to South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation).268
enter virus-stricken countries to help prevent future Will COVID-19 offer opportunity for new forms of
pandemics.261 The UN secretary-general, António cooperation?
Guterres, has said: “The relationship between the
biggest powers has never been as dysfunctional. The pandemic also underscores some of the limits
COVID-19 is showing dramatically, either we join of globalisation. It highlights how vulnerable global
[together] ... or we can be defeated.”262 Rather than supply chains and distribution networks are, and
cooperate to defeat a shared threat, nations have how a crisis of this nature can affect the world’s
repeatedly taken unilateral steps to shield themselves financial and economic system.269 It creates more
and engaged in counterproductive sniping over who is pressure on corporations to weigh the efficiency and
to blame for the pandemic.263 cost/benefits of a globalised supply chain system
against the robustness of a domestic supply chain.270

49
TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL

These potential shifts in the supply chain create new The Spanish Minister of Foreign Affairs called for
challenges and exacerbate risks, such as sourcing reforming and reinforcing the institutions and
from regions where labour or other human rights mechanisms that underpin cooperation, as this “will
abuses are common, or increasing corruption risks in be our best defence276 against future global threats”.
procurement by sourcing from new suppliers not yet
fully vetted and screened. The World Bank and the IMF were also particularly
active and released a joint statement calling on all
official bilateral creditors to suspend debt payments
from borrowing countries that request forbearance.
The IMF pledged to make US$50 billion available
Rather than cooperate to defeat through its emergency financing facilities for low-
a shared threat, nations have income and emerging-market countries that seek
repeatedly taken unilateral steps to support in fighting coronavirus. The World Bank has
shield themselves and engaged in approved an extra US$14 billion of financing to assist
counterproductive sniping over who is companies and countries in their efforts to tackle the
to blame for the pandemic. pandemic. If these calls are heard, multilateralism
would be strengthened.

In the last two months over 100 countries have

requested, or expressed interest in emergency
assistance from the IMF. The G20 nations have already
Evidence and arguments for agreed to suspend debt payments through 2020 owed
improvement to them by 76 of the world’s poorest countries.277 A
suspension of this size is a first step soften the blow,
History shows that crises and disasters have but to have a positive impact there needs to be a debt
continually set the stage for change, often for the relief to give the world’s poorer countries breathing
better. After this global health crisis, we might be space.
able to see strengthening of global public health
governance.271 Gordon Brown has urged world leaders
to create a temporary form of global government Evidence and arguments for
to tackle the twin medical and economic crises deterioration
caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.272 Keeping this
in mind, the role of multilateral fora like the G7, the However, there are major concerns that the world will
G20, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and return to the idea of mutually beneficial globalisation
the World Bank, as well as new ones, could be used that defined the early 21st Century.278 During the 2014
in preventing further damage to the livelihoods of Ebola crisis, the United States assembled and led a
people everywhere. coalition of dozens of countries to counter the spread
of the disease. However, the Trump administration
UN secretary-general António Guterres has launched has so far shunned a similar leadership effort to
a US$2 billion appeal to member states to support a respond to COVID-19.279
coordinated Global Humanitarian Response Plan to
fight COVID-19.273 The scheme aims to ensure that This pandemic has the potential to wreak havoc in
the world’s most vulnerable populations are not fragile states and unresolved conflict zones, trigger
abandoned to face the pandemic alone. The UN widespread unrest and severely test international
General Assembly has adopted a resolution by the crisis management systems.280 Yet multilateral bodies
193 member states that highlights the need for have so far failed to agree on a common response to
international cooperation to ensure global access these challenges. During the last G20 extraordinary
to medicines, vaccines and medical equipment to summit, leaders did not address the IMF’s request that
address COVID-19.274 Twenty-four governments — G20 nations double its resources to US$2 trillion.281
including Canada, Ethiopia, France, Germany, Mexico, They also declined the World Bank and IMF request282
the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden and the UK to provide debt relief to poorest nations reeling from
— came together in a joint declaration by ministers the pandemic.
of foreign affairs to launch a “wake-up call for
multilateralism” to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic.275

50
 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE

Short-term impact on governance and areas. The WHO and other international bodies fear
anti-corruption that restrictions associated with the disease will
impede humanitarian supply chains, creating fertile
Multilateral bodies such as the IMF and others ground for fraud and corruption. Humanitarian
planning relief programmes have a good opportunity agencies are not the only parts of the multilateral
to introduce stricter transparency and accountability system under pressure due to the pandemic.290 Travel
mechanisms for the management of funds. However, restrictions have begun to weigh on international
most IMF programmes,283 for example, those peacemaking efforts. UN envoys working in the
providing remedial assistance, are characterised Middle East have been blocked from travelling to and
by their speed and flexibility, as well as limited within the region due to airport closures.
transparency and conditionality, making it difficult to More broadly, the disease means that international
ensure resources are not misused or embezzled.284 leaders, focused as they are on dramatic domestic
issues, have little or no time to devote to conflicts
Among the instruments of modern foreign policy or peace processes.291 Due to the close relationship
are loans and other funds, which can force a country between conflict and corruption, these developments
into financial dependency on its debtor. China’s “Belt can further exacerbate corruption in affected areas.
and Road” initiative is already subject to corruption
scandals, with alleged cases of public officials being
bribed so that their countries adopt these financial Long-term impact on governance and
instruments.285 China may use the pandemic crisis anti-corruption
to expand its foreign policy and start deals with
new countries, positioning itself as a leading global A further deterioration of multilateralism could have
power. It has already announced assistance to an impact on the anti-corruption agenda, particularly
82 countries, the WHO and the African Union.286 because multilateral bodies have in recent years
Russia is also increasing its presence in Africa.287 In played a key role in setting anti-corruption standards
Transparency International’s most recent Exporting and driving collective action. If multilateral bodies
Corruption report, which measures enforcement of fail to respond to the current health and economic
laws against foreign bribery, both China and Russia crisis, a scenario of fragmentation already envisaged
have “zero or no enforcement” level.288 This means due to shifts in power dynamics could become likely
that both countries’ current exports to Africa carry and trigger the long overdue reform of multilateral
with them a high risk of corruption.289 It is therefore institutions.
essential that regional and international organisations
from the European Union to the UN muster a International Organisations and international fora
coordinated response and continue supporting must play a key role in ensuring that the fight
anti-corruption policies, particularly in developing against corruption and bribery remains high on the
countries. agenda. Increased involvement of less accountable
international donors could facilitate more corruption
and undisclosed contracts with governments, which
could lead to control of key sectors and natural
resources (such as land, water or energy). As the fight
Multilateral bodies such as the against corruption has so far relied on peer pressure
IMF and others planning relief for enforcement, the current absence of leadership
programmes have a good opportunity will cause a decline in pressure to comply with
to introduce stricter transparency and norms292 and even existing integrity and accountability
accountability mechanisms for the standards will become largely ineffective.
management of funds.

Apart from direct short-term impacts on anti-

corruption and governance, COVID-19 could also have
an indirect effect by severely weakening the capacity
of international institutions to serve conflict-affected

51
TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL

CONCLUSION

The COVID-19 pandemic has upended many corruption risks. Most existing anti-corruption
assumptions about how the world works, from the mechanisms rely on a combination of rule of law and
global economy and governance, to domestic politics, public demand for accountability and integrity. Both
the role of business and technology in our lives and dimensions would suffer if emergency powers outlast
the relationship between citizens, the state and the the pandemic itself.
market. Anti-corruption is embedded and featured in
all these factors and relationships. In certain contexts, where states and their institutions
suffer in the face of the pandemic, organised crime
Many of the key trends of the pre-pandemic era and violent groups come in to exploit the power
are simply accelerating as a result of the health vacuum, leading to more instability and violence, a
and economic crisis. Weakened cooperation at the reality worse than corruption itself. Increased social
international level results in ineffective responses tensions may be exacerbated by mistrust in the times
to transnational corrupt networks, the continued of social distancing and the competition for scarce
flow of illicit finance and decreased appetite for the resources.
enforcement of international anti-corruption and
anti-bribery treaties and conventions. Efforts to In addition to the acceleration of existing challenges,
seize and recover assets of kleptocrats around the the pandemic is ushering in new ones, most of which
world may also suffer as a result, leaving plundered are connected to the unprecedented economic
countries with few resources to face the health and downturn that most countries are likely to face.
ensuing economic crisis. In most countries, the health The International Monetary Fund, for example, has
and economic crisis are hitting the poorest and most warned of the harshest recession since the great
marginalised communities hardest due to their lack depression. As governments design new economic
of access to healthcare and secure income, widening policies to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19
the ever-increasing inequality gap. All these factors pandemic, new governance and anti-corruption
together contribute to further economic inequality challenges arise. Large quasi-discretionary stimulus
between and within nations, leading to acute power packages bring opportunities for kickbacks and
imbalances, rife with corruption risks. favouritism, which are difficult to control at a time
when disbursing much needed funds has the highest
All these challenges are compounded by authoritarian priority. Monetary and fiscal policies need to work for
tendencies displayed by governments around the everyone, but the risk of undue influence by strong
world, as they accumulate more powers to fight the vested interests increases in times when many such
spread of the pandemic. A suppression of civil and decisions are taken in urgency and with less scrutiny.
political rights as well as concentration of power in Finally, the economic crisis is likely to increase the
the executive branch makes it difficult for citizens, share of the informal economy, which correlates
civil society and media, as well as accountability and highly with higher levels of corruption and inefficiency
oversight institutions such as courts, to mitigate of anti-corruption measures.

52
 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE

As is often the case, in times of crises there are also needed to deal with the pandemic that were found
opportunities. There are two clear opportunities lacking even in the most developed countries in the
that emerge from the early days of the new reality world. In parallel, the assumption that companies are
unfolding in front of us. Firstly, citizens and activists run to serve their shareholders are being seriously
are increasingly able to use online tools to participate questioned, with governments and activists alike
in public life and to organise. Increased digital literacy arguing that companies receiving state subsidies
and access to tools that provide collaborative working should prioritize continued production and high
and video-conferencing functions are enabling fruitful employment over executive and shareholder rewards.
engagement while the potential of participatory Many digital services, often provided by big tech
processes, such as online citizen assemblies and companies, are proving to be so central to our daily
participatory budgeting may offer even more lives that they cannot simply be left unregulated,
opportunities in the near future. Early, albeit particularly in the absence of competition within their
uncertain, signs of more critical consumption and respective markets. This provides fresh opportunities,
reception of information on online sources, despite including to rethink digital rights, data privacy and the
increased attempts at disinformation, may provide role of big tech companies in democratic processes
hope for a future with more informed and engaged such as elections.
societies.
Handled well, if both these potential opportunities
Secondly, the current crisis also provides an became reality they would provide great momentum
opportunity to re-think basic concepts, such as the to anti-corruption efforts in the short and long term.
common good. While there may never be agreement Better citizen engagement and participation in
as to what that means, it is becoming increasingly public policy, coupled with a shift in attitudes from
more evident that everyone should be entitled to governments and businesses on the common good,
basic support, including healthcare, employment would greatly contribute to systems where power is
support or basic income and in some parts of the exercised and held accountable to benefit societies
world even more basic needs such as guaranteed sick rather than vested interests.
leave. These were some of the basic preconditions

photo: Adli Wahid / Unsplash

53
TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL

ENDNOTES

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TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL

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68 Transparency International, Corruption and the 77 Jones, T., “Yakuza among first with relief supplies in
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— not on the black, but on the grey market, and I won’t to win over desperate Somalis”, Jamestown Foundation,
say where from, even if you shot me afterwards.” See 2017, https://jamestown.org/program/al-shabaab-plays-aid-
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70 Kupperman Thorp, Tammy, “To Defeat the Coronavirus, 81 Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime,
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87 Sperber, A., “Africa Meets Pandemic with Violence, 100 Cadena, Andres, Felipe Child, Matt Craven et. al., “How
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89 Steingrüber et al., 2020: 72; Transparency International, 103 The Economist, “Governments are spending big to
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117 Bergfeld, M., “The Insanity of making Sick People 133 Piper, Kelsey, “The devastating consequences of
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118 Amir Adly, “The Pandemic Could Transform Informal 134 Oxfam, “Half a billion people could be pushed into
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125 United Nations Industrial Development Organisation, 140 Countries like Zambia, which has one doctor for 10,000
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146 Standing, Guy, “Coronavirus, Economic Crisis, and 159 Chêne, M., The Impact of Corruption on Growth and
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Delcker, J., Wanat, Z. and Scott, M., “The Coronavirus Fake xenophobia-and-fake-news-light-covid-19
News Pandemic Sweeping Whatsapp”, Politico, March 2020,
www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16/coronavirus-fake-news- 204 European Commission, “Fighting Disinformation”,
pandemic-133447 2020, https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/health/
coronavirus-response/fighting-disinformation_en
193 Sample, I., “What are deepfakes and how can you
spot them?”, The Guardian, 2020, www.theguardian.com/ 205 World Economic Forum, “How to Read the News Like
technology/2020/jan/13/what-are-deepfakes-and-how-can- a Scientist and Avoid the COVID-19 ‘Infodemic’”, 2020, www.
you-spot-them weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/how-to-avoid-covid-19-fake-
news-coronavirus/

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 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE

206 Readfearn, G., “Coronavirus Overload: Five Ways to 216 Keller, M. and Lorenz, T., “Coronavirus Spurs A Wave
Fight Misinformation and Fear”, The Guardian, 2020, www. Of Suspect Websites Looking To Cash In”, New York Times,
theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/22/coronavirus-overload- 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/business/coronavirus-
five-ways-to-fight-misinformation-and-fear ecommerce-sites.html

207 Jones, K., “This Is How COVID-19 Has Changed 217 Pennycook, G. and Rand, D., “The right way to fight
Media Habits In Each Generation”, World Economic Forum, fake news”, The New York Times, 2020, www.nytimes.
2020, www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/covid19-media- com/2020/03/24/opinion/fake-news-social-media.html
consumption-generation-pandemic-entertainment/;
218 Sweney, M. and Waterson, J., “Arsonists attack phone
Nielsen, R., Fletcher, R., Newman, N., Brennen, J. and Howard, mast serving NHS Nightingale hospital”, The Guardian, 2020,
P.,. “Navigating The ‘Infodemic’: How People in Six Countries www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/apr/14/arsonists-
Access and Rate News and Information about Coronavirus”, attack-phone-mast-serving-nhs-nightingale-hospital
Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism, 2020, https://
reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/infodemic-how-people-six- 219 Simon, J., “COVID-19 Is Spawning A Global Press-
countries-access-and-rate-news-and-information-about- Freedom Crackdown”, Columbia Journalism Review, 2020,
coronavirus www.cjr.org/analysis/coronavirus-press-freedom-crackdown.
php
208 Dubois, M., “Could Covid-19 Affect Public Trust in
Science?”, CNRS News, 2020, https://news.cnrs.fr/opinions/ 220 Reporters without Borders, “Coronavirus off-limits
could-covid-19-affect-public-trust-in-science in Turkmenistan”, March 2020, https://rsf.org/en/news/
coronavirus-limits-turkmenistan
209 Henley, J., “Coronavirus causing some anti-vaxxers to
waver, experts say”, The Guardian, 2020, www.theguardian. 221 UN News, “During This Coronavirus Pandemic, ‘Fake
com/world/2020/apr/21/anti-vaccination-community-divided- News’ Is Putting Lives At Risk”, UNESCO, 2020, https://news.
how-respond-to-coronavirus-pandemic un.org/en/story/2020/04/1061592

210 American Library Association, 2020: 203 222 EUvsDisInfo, “EEAS Special Report: Disinformation on
the Coronavirus — Short Assessment of the Information
211 Child, D., “Fighting Fake News: The New Front In Environment”, March 2020, https://euvsdisinfo.eu/eeas-
The Coronavirus Battle”, Aljazeera, 2020, www.aljazeera. special-report-disinformation-on-the-coronavirus-short-
com/news/2020/04/fighting-fake-news-front-coronavirus- assessment-of-the-information-environment/
battle-200413164832300.html
223 Graham-Harrison, E., “The Whistleblower Doctor Who
212 Deutsche Welle, “Is Russia Running A Coronavirus Fell Victim to China’s Coronavirus”, The Guardian, 2020, www.
Disinformation Campaign?”, 2020, www.dw.com/en/is-russia- theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/06/li-wenliang-coronavirus-
running-a-coronavirus-disinformation-campaign/a-52864106 whistleblower-doctor-profile

213 Kreps, S. and Nyhan, B., “Coronavirus Fake News 224 UN News, 2020: 221; European Parliament, Fact-
Isn’t Like Other Fake News”, Foreign Affairs, 2020, www. Checking Day: Fighting The Virus Of Disinformation On
foreignaffairs.com/articles/2020-03-30/coronavirus-fake- Covid-19, 2020, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/
news-isnt-other-fake-news press-room/20200401IPR76306/fact-checking-day-fighting-
the-virus-of-disinformation-on-covid-19
214 Boxwell, R., “How China’s Fake News Machine is
Rewriting the History of Covid-19, Even As The Pandemic 225 UN News, 2020: 221
Unfolds”, Politico, 2020, www.politico.com/news/
magazine/2020/04/04/china-fake-news-coronavirus-164652 226 Transparency International, “Governments and
Corporations Need to Guarantee Safety Of COVID-19
215 BBC, “Coronavirus: Doctor rejects Trump’s ‘heat and Whistleblowers”, 2020, www.transparency.org/news/
light’ idea at White House”, April 2020, www.bbc.com/news/ pressrelease/governments_corporations_guarantee_safety_
av/world-us-canada-52407181/coronavirus-doctor-rejects- of_covid_19_whistleblowers
trump-s-heat-and-light-idea-at-white-house
227 Katie Clift and Alexander Court, “How are companies

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TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL

responding to the coronavirus crisis?”, World Economic 239 Ralph Hamann, “Coronavirus will have long-term
Forum, 23 March 2020, www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/ implications for business leaders”, The Conversation, 2 April
how-are-companies-responding-to-the-coronavirus-crisis- 2020: https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-will-have-
d15bed6137/; long-term-implications-for-business-leaders-here-are-the-
top-five-135064
Hayley C. Cuccinello, “Billionaire Tracker: Actions the
World’s Wealthiest are Taking in Response to the 240 Adele Peters, “How businesses could emerge better
Coronavirus Pandemic”, Forbes, 2020: www.forbes.com/ after COVID-19, according to B Lab”, Fast Company, 31 March
sites/hayleycuccinello/2020/03/17/billionaire-tracker-covid- 2020: www.fastcompany.com/90483730/how-businesses-
19/#9229f237e697 could-emerge-better-after-covid-19-according-to-b-lab

228 Casey Newton, “How COVID-19 is changing public 241 AJ Dellinger, “Tech Companies Spent More than 64
perception of big tech companies”, The Verge, 2020 Million on Lobbying in 2018”, Endgadget, 2019

229 Kevin Roose and Gabriel J.X. Dance, “The Coronavirus 242 See data here.
revives Facebook as a News powerhouse”, The New York
Times, 2020. 243 Crain, M., and Nadler, A., Political Manipulation and
Internet Advertising Infrastructure, Journal of Information
230 Todd Spangler, “Apple Is Donating Millions of Masks Policy, pp.370-410, 2019.
to Health Workers Battling Coronavirus, CEO Tim Cook Says”,
Variety, 2020 244 Shaxon, N., “Could the wealth in tax havens help us
pay for the coronavirus response?”, Tax Justice Network,
231 Casey Newton, 2020: 228 March 2020, www.taxjustice.net/2020/03/27/could-the-
wealth-in-tax-havens-help-us-pay-for-the-coronavirus-
232 Sarah Kreps and Brendan Nyhan, “Coronavirus Fake response/
News isn’t Like Other Fake News”, Foreign Affairs, 2020
245 Andersen, J.; Johannesen, N.; Rijkers, B., Elite Capture
233 Russel Brandom, “Facebook mis-information problem of Foreign Aid Evidence from Offshore Bank Accounts. Policy
runs deeper than you think“, The Verge, 2020 Research Working Paper 9150, The World Bank Group, 2020.
Available at: documents.worldbank.org/curated/
234 Mark Sweney, “Facebook paid just £28m tax after en/493201582052636710/pdf/Elite-Capture-of-Foreign-Aid-
record £1.6bn revenues in UK”, The Guardian, 2019 Evidence-from-Offshore-Bank-Accounts.pdf

235 Ben Tarnoff, “Can Silicon Valley workers reign Big Tech 246 Shaxon, N., 2020: 244
from within?”, The Guardian, 2018
247 Landais, C., Saez, E. and Zucman G., “A progressive
236 Hannah Kuchler, “Gates Foundation and Wellcome European wealth tax to fund the European COVID response”,
Trust to fund Covid-19 drug trials”, Financial Times, 30 Vox, 3 April 2020 , https://voxeu.org/article/progressive-
March 2020: www.ft.com/content/7bb4dfae-fcd9-458f-a3b4- european-wealth-tax-fund-european-covid-response
af78cb9cddb2
248 Elliot, L., “Wealth tax rise could raise £174bn to tackle
237 Tim Zanni, “Tech hubs foster innovation to fight Covid-19, expert says”, The Guardian, 22 April 2020, www.
COVID-19”, KPMG, 7 April 2020, https://home.kpmg/xx/en/ theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/22/wealth-tax-rise-could-
blogs/home/posts/2020/04/tech-hubs-foster-innovation-to- raise-174bn-tackle-covid-19-expert-says
fight-covid-19.html
249 Tax Justice Network, Global Asset Registry Workshop,
238 Sabine Muscat, “Will Big Tech emerge as the big winner 2019, www.taxjustice.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Sept-
in the coronacrisis? Not so fast”, Brussels: Heinrich Böll 2019-GAR-workshop-brief.pdf
Stiftung, 2020;
250 The FACTI panel was established to address gaps,
Casey Newton, “How COVID-19 is changing public perception impediments and vulnerabilities in international frameworks
of big tech companies”, The Verge, 26 March 2020: www. to help the world prevent financial crimes, end financial
theverge.com/interface/2020/3/26/21193902/tech-backlash- opacity, create level playing fields and mobilise public
covid-19-coronavirus-google-facebook-amazon resources equitably. The General Assembly resolution

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 GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE

74/206 includes an invitation to the President of the General 259 Wintour, Patrick, “Coronavirus: who will be winners
Assembly and the President of the Economic and Social and losers in new world order?”, The Guardian, 11 April 2020,
Council to give appropriate consideration to the importance www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/11/coronavirus-who-
of combating illicit financial flows and strengthening good will-be-winners-and-losers-in-new-world-order
practices on asset return to foster sustainable development.
The President of the General Assembly and the President 260 The WHO has a $4.8 billion annual budget and
of the Economic and Social Council welcome this call. www. the US contributes more than $400 million per year. See
factipanel.org/about Ollstein, Alice Miranda, “Trump halts funding to World
Health Organization”, Politico, 14 April 2020, www.politico.
251 Martini, M., “COVID-19: A perfect storm for the com/news/2020/04/14/trump-world-health-organization-
corrupt?”, Voices for Transparency, https://voices. funding-186786
transparency.org/covid-19-perfect-storm-for-the-corrupt-
c42eb9dfc234 261 Needham, Kirsty, “Australia to pursue coronavirus
investigation at World Health Assembly”, 23 April 2020, www.
252 Bostock, B., “Denmark and Poland are refusing to bail reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-australia-china/
out companies registered in offshore tax havens”, Business australia-to-pursue-coronavirus-investigation-at-world-
Insider, April 2020, www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus- health-assembly-idUSKCN2251G7
companies-tax-havens-banned-denmark-poland-bailout-
2020-4?r=DE&IR=T 262 Wintour, 2020: 259

253 Chown Oved, M., “Trudeau refuses calls to exclude 263 Patrick, Stewart M., “The Multilateral System Still
tax haven companies from COVID-19 bailout”, The Star, April Cannot Get Its Act Together on COVID-19”, Council on Foreign
2020, www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/04/22/trudeau- Relations, 6 March 2020, www.cfr.org/blog/multilateral-
refuses-calls-to-exclude-tax-haven-companies-from-covid-19- system-still-cannot-get-its-act-together-covid-19
bailout.html
264 Allen, J., et al., “How the World Will Look After the
254 European Council, “Taxation: Council revises its EU Coronavirus Pandemic”, Foreign Policy, 20 March 2020,
list of non-cooperative jurisdictions”, February 2020, www. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/20/world-order-after-
consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2020/02/18/ coroanvirus-pandemic/
taxation-council-revises-its-eu-list-of-non-cooperative-
jurisdictions/ 265 When no European state answered Italy’s urgent
appeal for medical equipment and protective gear, China
255 de Haldevang, M., “The EU expanded its tax haven publicly committed to sending 1,000 ventilators, two million
blacklist but the world’s biggest tax haven isn’t on it”, Quartz, masks, 100,000 respirators, 20,000 protective suits and
February 2020, https://qz.com/1804812/eu-expands-its-tax- 50,000 test kits. China has also dispatched medical teams
haven-blacklist-but-overlooks-biggest-culprit/ and 250,000 masks to Iran and sent supplies to Serbia,
whose president dismissed European solidarity as “a fairy
256 Tax Justice Network, “EU loses over $27 billion in tale” and proclaimed that “the only country that can help
corporate tax a year to UK, Switzerland, Luxembourg and us is China.” Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma has promised
Netherlands”, April 2020, www.taxjustice.net/2020/04/27/ to send large quantities of testing kits and masks to the
eu-loses-over-27-billion-in-corporate-tax-a-year-to-uk- United States, as well as 20,000 test kits and 100,000 masks
switzerland-luxembourg-and-netherlands/ to each of Africa’s 54 countries. See Campbell, Kurt M., and
Rush Doshi, “The Coronavirus Could Reshape Global Order:
257 Transparency International, “Extraordinary times call China Is Maneuvering for International Leadership as the
for extraordinary accountability”, 20 March 2020, https:// United States Falters”, Foreign Affairs, 18 March 2020, www.
voices.transparency.org/extraordinary-times-call-for- foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2020-03-18/coronavirus-
extraordinary-accountability-252381577a3f could-reshape-global-order

258 Engaman, M., “In the Wake of Covid-19: Troubled 266 International Crisis Group, “COVID-19 and Conflict:
Waters Ahead for the European Union”, Institute for Security Seven Trends to Watch”, Special Briefing, 24 March 2020,
and Development Policy, 2020, https://isdp.eu/publication/ www.crisisgroup.org/global/sb4-covid-19-and-conflict-seven-
in-the-wake-of-covid-19-troubled-waters-ahead-for-the- trends-watch
european-union/
267 Crisis Group, 2020: 266

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268 Sharma, Akanksha, “Will COVID19 crises rejuvenate the 280 Crisis Group, 2020: 267
coalition of SAARC nations?”, Observer Research Foundation,
23 April 2020, www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/will-covid19- 281 Patrick, Stewart M., “The Multilateral System Still
crises-rejuvenate-the-coalition-of-saarc-nations-65064/ Cannot Get Its Act Together on COVID-19”, Council on Foreign
Relations, 26 March 2020, www.cfr.org/blog/multilateral-
269 Foreign Policy 2020: 264 system-still-cannot-get-its-act-together-covid-19

270 “Coronavirus Will Change the World Permanently. 282 Shalal, Andrea, “World Bank, IMF urge debt relief
Here’s How”, Politico, 19 March 2020, www.politico.com/ for poorest countries”, Reuters, 26 March 2020, www.
news/magazine/2020/03/19/coronavirus-effect-economy-life- reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-world-bank-imf/
society-analysis-covid-135579 world-bank-imf-urge-debt-relief-for-poorest-countries-
idUSKBN21C2G0
271 Foreign Policy, 2020: 264
283 More than 90 countries have already requested
272 Elliot, Larry, “Gordon Brown calls for global emergency assistance including through the IMF’s Rapid
government to tackle coronavirus”, The Guardian, 26 March Credit Facility (RCF), Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI)
2020, www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/26/gordon- programs and Catastrophic Containment.
brown-calls-for-global-government-to-tackle-coronavirus
284 Transparency International, Human Rights Watch and
273 United Nations, Global Humanitarian Response Plan: Global Witness, “IMF: Make Covid-19 Funds Transparent,
COVID-19, 28 March 2020, https://www.unocha.org/sites/ Accountable”, 8 April 2020, www.transparency.org/news/
unocha/files/Global-Humanitarian-Response-Plan-COVID-19. pressrelease/imf_make_covid_19_funds_transparent_
pdf accountable

274 United Nations, Resolution A/74/L.56 on International 285 Hillman, Jonathan E., “Corruption Flows along China’s
cooperation to ensure global access to medicines, vaccines Belt and Road”, Center for Strategic and International
and medical equipment to face COVID-19, 8 April 2020, www. Studies, 18 January 2019, www.csis.org/analysis/corruption-
un.org/pga/74/wp-content/uploads/sites/99/2020/04/A- flows-along-chinas-belt-and-road
74-L.56.pdf
286 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of
275 Alliance for Multilateralism, COVID-19 — Joint China, “China Has Announced Assistance to 82 Countries,
Declaration of the Alliance for Multilateralism, 16 April WHO and African Union to Fight COVID-19”, 20 March 2020,
2020, www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/french-foreign-policy/ www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/topics_665678/kjgzbdfyyq/
united-nations/alliance-for-multilateralism-63158/article/ t1759145.shtml
covid-19-joint-declaration-of-the-alliance-for-multilateralism-
16-apr-2020 287 Standish, Reid, “Putin Has a Dream of Africa”,
Foreign Policy, 25 October 2019, https://foreignpolicy.
276 González Laya, Arancha, “Coronavirus: Could the com/2019/10/25/russia-africa-development-soviet-union/
pandemic revive multilateralism?”, World Economic Forum,
20 April 2020, www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/global- 288 Transparency International, “Foreign Bribery Rages
public-health-multilateralism-coronavirus-covid-19/ Unchecked in Over Half of Global Trade”, 12 September
2018, www.transparency.org/news/feature/exporting-
277 Sadowski, Dennis, “Debt relief needed to help poor corruption-2018
nations in pandemic.” 18 May 2020, The Tablet, https://www.
thetablet.co.uk/news/12932/debt-relief-needed-to-help-poor- 289 Mashanov, Grigory, “Advocating for foreign bribery
nations-in-pandemic enforcement in a highly corrupt country”, 25 March 2020,
https://voices.transparency.org/advocating-for-foreign-
278 Foreign Policy, 2020: 264 bribery-enforcement-in-a-highly-corrupted-country-
cf8dcc3d87db
279 Campbell, Kurt M., and Rush Doshi, “The Coronavirus
Could Reshape Global Order: China Is Manoeuvring for 290 Crisis Group, 2020: 267
International Leadership as the United States Falters”,
Foreign Affairs, 18 March 2020, www.foreignaffairs.com/ 291 Crisis Group, 2020: 267
articles/china/2020-03-18/coronavirus-could-reshape-global-
order 292 Transparency International, Vision 2030, August 2019

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