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THE FUTURE OF THE PROFESSIONS
 Praise for The Future of the Professions

‘A swashbuckling journey through the professions, this book makes sense of sweep-
ing changes going on today and helps us see what it will mean to be a professional
in an era of ubiquitous knowledge and increasingly capable machines. The authors’
rigorous skepticism reveals an astounding future.’
Hugh Verrier, Chairman, White & Case

‘Many books about the future are shallow and unnecessarily alarmist. This book is
neither. We are behaving like ostriches in the developed world, refusing to see that
technology is on the cusp of fundamentally reshaping professions. The future is
bright, but only if we start embracing, rather than shunning, the future which the
Susskinds show is hurtling towards us.’
Sir Anthony Seldon,Vice-Chancellor, University of Buckingham,
and former Master of Wellington College

‘If you want to know how technology will continue to transform our lives, read this
book! Well researched, beautifully written, comprehensive, insightful, and encour-
aging, the authors convincingly make the case that no profession is immune to
these monumental changes, and that they provide an unprecedented opportunity
for those who embrace rather than resist them.’
Professor Nicholas F. LaRusso, MD, Founding Medical Director
of the Mayo Clinic Center for Innovation

‘In the tax profession we have seen transformational change, striking at the very
foundations of what we do and how we do it. In this compelling work, the Susskinds
help us think more clearly about the crucial issues and opportunities we face and
set clear insight as to the way in which we must respond. Essential reading for any-
one interested in the future of a professional organization.’
Conrad Young, Deloitte Global Leader, Tax Management Consulting

‘Professions beware! In this insightful and thought-provoking book, Richard and

Daniel Susskind capture the essence of today’s changing environment where, whilst
the destination may not be certain, it is clear the status quo will not survive.
Technology in particular is having a profound impact across the professions and no
group seems exempt. The future has never been so ripe with challenges and
opportunities.’
Richard Sexton,Vice Chairman, Global Assurance, PwC
THE FUTURE
OF THE

PROFESSIONS
how technology will
transform the work
of human experts

RICHARD SUSSKIND

and

DANIEL SUSSKIND

1
 3
Great Clarendon Street, Oxford, ox2 6dp,
United Kingdom
Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford.
It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship,
and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of
Oxford University Press in the UK and in certain other countries
© Richard Susskind and Daniel Susskind 2015
The moral rights of the authors have been asserted
First Edition published in 2015
Impression: 1
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in
a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the
prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted
by law, by licence or under terms agreed with the appropriate reprographics
rights organization. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the
above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the
address above
You must not circulate this work in any other form
and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer
Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press
198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Data available
Library of Congress Control Number: 2015939043
ISBN 978–0–19–871339–5
Printed in Italy by
L.E.G.O. S.p.A.
Links to third party websites are provided by Oxford in good faith and
for information only. Oxford disclaims any responsibility for the materials
contained in any third party website referenced in this work.
We dedicate this book to the memory of
Shirley Susskind (1935–2015)
a very loving mother and grandmother
 Preface

It is unusual for a father and son to write a book together. Before thanking
the many people who helped us with this book, we thought readers would
be interested to learn a little about the background to our collaboration.

A Note from Richard

For more than thirty years, I have been working on transforming the way
that lawyers and courts work. I have written eight related books, and many
of my theories about the future of legal services are no longer considered
outrageous. Over the years, and around the world, at the end of my lectures
to lawyers, I have been approached by stray doctors, auditors, architects, and
many others who have said that my ideas apply equally to their own profes-
sions. I have had similar feedback in my consulting work with leading tax
and audit specialists, and from my work as a university professor and school
governor in the education sector.The starting-point for the research under-
pinning the book, therefore, is a well-tested and substantially corroborated
set of ideas about the future of legal services that other professionals say
resonates beyond law. One main purpose of the book is to test and extend
this hypothesis about the law and lawyers to the professions more
generally.
Above all, the project that led to this book has allowed me to work
intensely with my son, Daniel. Very few fathers have this opportunity. It
has been the high point of my working life.

A Note from Daniel

Five years have passed since my Dad and I first sat down to talk about this
book. He had spent most of his career thinking about the future of the legal
viii p re fac e

profession. But, for a while, he had sensed that his thinking applied equally
well elsewhere. At the time I was working in the Policy Unit in 10 Downing
Street. As we talked, it became very clear that my experience in government
confirmed his suspicions. And so we decided to set off on a project, together,
to think about the future of the professions. It has been an extraordinarily
happy five years, and a great privilege.

As Co-Authors
This book is written in the first person plural. This reflects the fact that our
views are shared views, so that when we say that ‘we believe’, ‘we see’, or
‘we predict’, then our positions are indeed aligned. However, we accept that
our use of ‘we’ in the past tense is sometimes anomalous. For example,
where we speak of what we wrote in the mid-1980s, one of us (Daniel) was
not yet alive. Nonetheless, as a convention throughout the book, when we
speak of ‘we’, we may be referring, variously, to our joint views or experi-
ence or those of either one of us.
 Acknowledgements

We have been fortunate to have had the help of a large number of people
while writing this book. The following list comprises the many individuals
who gave generously of their time to be interviewed, alongside numerous
friends, colleagues, and clients who supported us throughout. To each and
every one of you we extend our warmest thanks: David Agus, David Barnes,
George Beaton, Lukas Biewald, Nick Birks, Bruce Braude, Jonathan Brayne,
Steven Brill, Tim Brown, Simon Carne, Mark Chandler, Stacey Childress,
Keith Coleman, Richard Collier-Keywood, Charles Conn, Dan Cooperman,
Jim Dabney, John Danner, Ian Davis, Robin Downie, Matthew Edwards,
Neville Eisenberg, Philip Evans, Alice Fermor-Hesketh, Gi Fernando, Cam
Findlay, Daniel Finkelstein, Joshua Foer, Howard Gardner, Josh Glancy,
Tom Goetz, Ian Goldin, Colin Gounden, Muir Gray, Ashok Gupta, Ben
Hammersley, Mark Harris, Mike Hess, Silvia Hodges, Jonathan Hughes,
Will Hunter, Michael Ingram, Ari Kaplan, Hanif Kara, John Kerr, Daphne
Koller, Daniel Kraft, Kieran Kumaria, Adrian Lajtha, Nick LaRusso, Bill
Liao, Paul Lippe, Ian Lloyd, Jay Lorsch, George Lowder, Ian Lloyd, Bruce
MacEwen, David Maister, James Manyika, Helen Margetts, Chris McKenna,
Christopher Michel, Christopher Millard, Michael Mills, John Moore,
David Morley, Tim Morris, Alastair Morrison, Gary Nelson, Howard
Nichols, Cory Ondrejka, Chris Outram, Jonathan Oviatt, Alan Paterson,
David Pester, Richard Punt, Stephen Rabinowitz, Chas Rampenthal, Paul
Robinson, Joel Rose, Mari Sako,Viktor Mayer-Schönberger, Dov Seidman,
Anthony Seldon, Richard Sennett, Richard Sexton, Tom Standage, Janet
Stanton, Paloma Strelitz, Ziona Strelitz, Matt Sucherman, Stephen Swensen,
Gideon Sylvester, Eric Topol, Darrel Untereker, David Vines,Vivek Wadhwa,
Kent Walker, Ted Wang, Anthony Warrens, Rachel Whetstone, David Wilkins,
Tom Wright, and Conrad Young.
A very big thank-you also to Darcy Hill for helping us so diligently with
the bibliography, and to Patricia Cato and Suzanne Richmond for their
assistance with early drafts of the book.
x ac k nowle dg e m e nts

Our friends at Oxford University Press have been notably patient. David
Musson has been an ongoing source of encouragement and of wise counsel;
and we are grateful also at OUP to Kim Behrens, Kate Farquhar-Thomson,
Phil Henderson, and Clare Kennedy for their enthusiasm and professional-
ism. Thank you also to Jeff New for his superb copy-editing.
The epigraph by John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of
Employment, Interest and Money (1936), © The Royal Economic Society, pub-
lished by Cambridge University Press, is reproduced with permission.
Alan Susskind reviewed the entire manuscript. His observations and his
ongoing support were very much appreciated. At the same time, Werner
Susskind merits special mention for keeping us fully supplied with relevant
articles from the BMJ.
Jamie Susskind deserves the largest thank-you of all. He was there for us
constantly—to brainstorm, to motivate, to advise, and, occasionally, to medi-
ate. He read two versions of the manuscript, and his detailed analysis and
critique were invaluable.
Grace—I (Daniel) fear this will not be the last time. With all the love
there is in the world, thank you for being there for me.
Alexandra—we thank you for your warmth, your smile, and your love.
Michelle (our wife/mother)—you have been remarkable in your support of
our work and your belief in us as co-authors. We cannot thank you enough
for your love and endurance.
Finally, we dedicate this book to the memory of Shirley Susskind, our
mother and grandmother.Very sadly, she passed away just a few weeks before
we completed the manuscript. We know she would have been proud of us.
Richard Susskind
Daniel Susskind
Radlett, England
30 March 2015
Hitherto [1848] it is questionable if all the mechanical inventions yet made
have lightened the day’s toil of any human being. They have enabled a
greater population to live the same life of drudgery and imprisonment, and
an increased number of manufacturers and others to make fortunes. They
have increased the comforts of the middle classes. But they have not yet
begun to effect those great changes in human destiny, which it is in their
nature and in their futurity to accomplish. Only when, in addition to just
institutions, the increase of mankind shall be under the deliberate guidance
of judicious foresight, can the conquests made from the powers of nature
by the intellect and energy of scientific discoverers become the common
property of the species, and the means of improving and elevating the
universal lot.
John Stuart Mill

The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones,
which ramify, for those brought up as most of us have been, into every
corner of our minds.
John Maynard Keynes
 Contents

List of Boxes and Figure xv

Introduction1

PART I. CHANGE

1. The Grand Bargain 9

1.1 Everyday conceptions 10
1.2 The scope of the professions 13
1.3 Historical context 18
1.4 The bargain explained 21
1.5 Theories of the professions 23
1.6 Four central questions 31
1.7 Disconcerting problems 33
1.8 A new mindset 37
1.9 Some common biases 43
2. From the Vanguard 46
2.1 Health 46
2.2 Education 55
2.3 Divinity 61
2.4 Law 66
2.5 Journalism 71
2.6 Management consulting 78
2.7 Tax and audit 84
2.8 Architecture 94
3. Patterns across the Professions 101
3.1 An early challenge 103
3.2 The end of an era 104
3.3 Transformation by technology 109
3.4 Emerging skills and competences 114
3.5 Professional work reconfigured 119
3.6 New labour models 123
3.7 More options for recipients 128
3.8 Preoccupations of professional firms 134
3.9 Demystification 140
xiv conte nt s

PART II. THEORY

4. Information and Technology 145

4.1 Information substructure 145
4.2 Pre-print and print-based communities 147
4.3 Technology-based Internet society 150
4.4 Future impact 153
4.5 Exponential growth in information technology 155
4.6 Increasingly capable machines 159
4.7 Increasingly pervasive devices 172
4.8 Increasingly connected humans 175
4.9 A fifty-year overview 182
5. Production and Distribution of Knowledge 188
5.1 The economic characteristics of knowledge 189
5.2 Knowledge and the professions 193
5.3 The evolution of professional work 195
5.4 The drive towards externalization 202
5.5 The liberation of expertise: from craft to commons? 210
5.6 The decomposition of professional work 211
5.7 Production and distribution of expertise: seven models 215

PART III. IMPLICATIONS

6. Objections and Anxieties 231

6.1 Trust, reliability, quasi-trust 233
6.2 The moral limits of markets 239
6.3 Lost craft 244
6.4 Personal interaction 248
6.5 Empathy 251
6.6 Good work 254
6.7 Becoming expert 258
6.8 No future roles 263
6.9 Three underlying mistakes 267
7. After the Professions 270
7.1 Increasingly capable, non-thinking machines 272
7.2 The need for human beings 277
7.3 Technological unemployment? 284
7.4 The impact of technology on professional work 289
7.5 The question of feasibility 295
Conclusion: What Future Should We Want? 303

Bibliography 309
Index 337
 List of Boxes and Figure

Box 3.1. Patterns and trends 102

Box 4.1. Four main developments in information technology 155
Box 4.2. What connected humans do 176
Box 5.1. Models for the production and distribution of practical expertise 216
Box 6.1. Future roles 264

Figure 5.1. The evolution of professional work 197

 Introduction

T his book is about the professions and the systems and people that will
replace them. Our focus is on doctors, lawyers, teachers, accountants,
tax advisers, management consultants, architects, journalists, and the clergy
(amongst others), on the organizations in which they work, and the institu-
tions that govern their conduct. Our main claim is that we are on the brink
of a period of fundamental and irreversible change in the way that the
expertise of these specialists is made available in society. Technology will be
the main driver of this change. And, in the long run, we will neither need
nor want professionals to work in the way that they did in the twentieth
century and before.
There is growing evidence that a transformation is already under way.
More people signed up for Harvard’s online courses in a single year, for
example, than have attended the actual university in its 377 years of exist-
ence. In the same spirit, there are a greater number of unique visits each
month to the WebMD network, a collection of health websites, than to all
the doctors working in the United States. In the legal world, three times as
many disagreements each year amongst eBay traders are resolved using
‘online dispute resolution’ than there are lawsuits filed in the entire US
court system. On its sixth birthday, the Huffington Post had more unique
monthly visitors than the website of the New York Times, which is almost 164
years of age. The British tax authorities use a fraud-detection system that
holds more data than the British Library (which has copies of every book
ever published in the UK). In 2014 the US tax authorities received elec-
tronic tax returns from almost 48 million people who had used online
tax preparation software rather than a tax professional to help them. At
WikiHouse, an online community designed a house that could be ‘printed’
and assembled for less than £50,000 (built successfully in London during
September 2014). The architectural firm Gramazio & Kohler used a group
of autonomous flying robots to assemble a structure out of 1,500 bricks.The
2 the future of the p rof e s si on s

consulting firm Accenture has 750 hospital nurses on its staff, while Deloitte,
founded as an audit practice 170 years ago, now has over 200,000 profes-
sionals and its own full-scale university set in a 700,000 square-foot campus
in Texas. Meanwhile, the Pope has 19.3 million followers on Twitter; the
Dalai Lama has a modest 10.4 million.1

Our broad argument

We believe that these developments are connected.They are early indicators
of a transformation that we have been studying together since 2010, when
we started work on this book. At that time, our main preoccupation was
with the work of our current professions. However, as our research and
thinking progressed, we concluded that a more basic and important ques-
tion also had to be addressed—how do we share expertise in society? In what
we term a ‘print-based industrial society’, the professions have played a cen-
tral role in the sharing of expertise. They have been the main channel
through which individuals and organizations have gained access to certain
kinds of knowledge and experience. However, in a ‘technology-based
Internet society’, we predict that increasingly capable machines, operating
on their own or with non-specialist users, will take on many of the tasks
that have been the historic preserve of the professions. We anticipate an
‘incremental transformation’ in the way that we produce and distribute
expertise in society. This will lead eventually to a dismantling of the tradi-
tional professions.
For the current recipients and beneficiaries of the work of the profes-
sions, we bring the possibility of good tidings—of a world in which exper-
tise is more accessible and affordable than ever before. For professional
providers, although our thesis may seem threatening, we anticipate that a
range of new opportunities will emerge. These are our hopes. But we also
recognize that the new systems for sharing expertise could be misused, and
we are troubled by this possibility. In any event, increasingly capable sys-
tems2 will bring transformations to professional work that will resemble the
impact of industrialization on traditional craftsmanship.

1
See Chapters 2 and 3 for references and further details of these examples.
2
We use the terms ‘increasingly capable systems’ and ‘increasingly capable machines’ inter-
changeably throughout the book. More generally, unless the context indicates otherwise, we also
use ‘systems’ and ‘machines’ interchangeably.
 i nt roduc ti on 3

To sceptics, who may already be tempted to put the book to one side,
consider this: in the mid-1990s, when we predicted (in retrospect, rather
unambitiously) that electronic mail would become the dominant way in
which clients and lawyers would communicate, senior officials at the Law
Society of England and Wales said that we should not be allowed to speak
in public, that we failed to understand confidentiality, and that we were
bringing the legal profession into disrepute. We recall this anecdote now in
order to invite those who feel an intuitive distaste for our arguments to
suspend disbelief for a short while and give serious contemplation to the
notion that the future may look nothing at all like the past. Although some
of the developments we anticipate in this book may seem outlandish today,
none is more improbable than the idea of e-mail between lawyers and
­clients seemed in the mid-1990s.
Professionals play such a central role in our lives that we can barely
imagine different ways of tackling the problems that they sort out for us.
But the professions are not immutable. They are an artefact that we have
built to meet a particular set of needs in a print-based industrial society. As
we progress into a technology-based Internet society, however, we claim
that the professions in their current form will no longer be the best answer
to those needs. To pick out a few of their shortcomings—we cannot afford
them, they are often antiquated, the expertise of the best is enjoyed only by
a few, and their workings are not transparent. For these and other reasons,
we believe today’s professions should and will be displaced by feasible
alternatives.

The professions as one object of study

Why study the professions as one phenomenon? Although they draw on
different bodies of knowledge, their jargon varies, and their working prac-
tices can be quite diverse, we suggest that the professions have many features
in common. Chief amongst these is that all professions, in analogous ways,
are a solution to the same problem—that none of us has sufficient specialist
knowledge to cope with all of our daily challenges. Human beings have
limited understanding, and so we look to doctors, teachers, lawyers, and
other professionals because they have expertise that we need to make pro-
gress in life. Professionals have knowledge, experience, skills, and know-how
that those they help do not.
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