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Qualifying Trade Conditions – 10-Year Yields & Dollar Index
1. Seasonal Tendency
o 10-year note often rallies in June.
o Example: June 2015 — price slid, making 5–6 consecutive lower lows in first half of June.
o Dollar Index in same period made lower highs → crack in correlation → trade idea forming.
o Declining yields = rising 10-year note price.
o Consolidation in yields led to consolidation in Dollar Index, 10-year treasury, and forex.
2. June 2016 Example
o 10-year note made equal lows.
o Dollar Index made higher highs → cracking correlation again.
o Declining yields confirmed the move.
o Consolidation in yields explained consolidation in currency markets.
3. November 2016 Example (Post-Elections)
o 10-year note made a lower high (ignore big election wick).
o Expected: lower low in Dollar Index → higher high in 10-year note.
o Reality: Dollar Index made lower low, but 10-year note did not make higher high → broken
symmetry → sign of underlying trend/manipulation.
o Open interest declined → smart money short covering → Dollar Index rally.
o Interest rates rose → higher yield → Dollar strength.
4. Trading Implications
o When symmetry between Dollar Index & 10-year note is broken → possible trend or
manipulation.
o Combine with quarterly shift concepts for next 3–4 months swings (ICT focus = ~3 months).
o Trades often last half that time but can go full 3 months.
o Look for SMT divergences between Dollar Index & 10-year note (or forex pairs) + interest rate
trends.
o Aligning with higher time frame order flow improves probability & filters noise.
o Works for long-term, swing, day, or scalp trades if aligned with institutional order flow.
o Not perfect but tilts odds in trader’s favor.
