COLUMN: Obamas path to another term paved by his pragmatism By Omar Ghabra A crowd estimated to be as large as 1 million people
gathered in Times Square on Jan.1 to ring in a new year and a new decade. To the dismay of anyone tiring of the endless cycle of political campaigning, the beginning of this new year can only mean one thing: Another election season is right around the corner. With the 2010 midterm still prominently visible in the rear view mirror and the 112th Congress just now convening, politicians on both sides of the political spectrum are positioning themselves for the big presidential election of 2012. In the coming months, the Republicans, emboldened by their historic gains last November, will begin the process of nominating their candidate to pit against President Obama in next years presidential election. Despite what President Obama described as the shellacking the Democrats received at the polls during the midterms, their 2012 prospects arent as bad as one would think. This is largely due to the pragmatic, calculated approach Obama has used to govern. Over the past year, President Obamas approval ratings took a huge dip as he was relentlessly attacked by those on both the left and the right. To many conservatives, Obama is viewed as a far leftist, hell-bent on turning the United States into a socialist country with his domestic policies and weakening the standing of the United States with his foreign policy. Healthcare reform, Cap and Trade, Wall Street Reform, and pretty much every other major Obama initiative were all almost unanimously opposed by Republicans. At the other side of the spectrum, disappointed liberals view Obamas domestic legislative accomplishments as being watered down and were outraged that he ordered an escalation of the war in Afghanistan. They were disappointed with the Health Care Reform bill that finally passed and couldnt understand why Obama couldnt or wouldnt act swiftly to fulfill some of his campaign pledges, notably closing the prison at Guantanamo Bay and repealing the militarys Dont Ask, Dont Tell policy. Many of them view Obama as too willing to compromise with the Republicans on key issues, as he did most recently during the negotiations regarding the Bush tax cuts. Although the voices of President Obamas detractors on both the left and the right have been loudly criticizing him for the past year, appeasing neither of these two groups is the key to Obamas reelection. According to a recent Gallup poll, the number of Americans who identify themselves as independents, as opposed to Democrats or Republicans, has risen to 38%. That significantly outnumbers the percentage of Americans that identify with either of the two major parties. This bloc of voters in the center is the one that Obama must appease if he wants to keep his job for four more years. Obama knows this and has been governing accordingly. Republicans generally arent going to vote for Obama regardless of what he does, so addressing their concerns would be a waste of his time, politically speaking.
As for disgruntled Democrats, no matter how disappointed they end up being with the Obama administration, the prospect of a President Palin or Gingrich will undoubtedly drive their turnout for Obama. The fact that they may do so reluctantly doesnt really matter. At the end of the day, even a disappointed Democrat will vote for Obama over whatever the GOP has to offer. The reality is, it doesnt matter if both the Democrats and the Republicans are critical of him. As long as he can sway a significant bloc of independent voters, his pragmatic approach will pay dividends. The events of the past few weeks have illustrated this perfectly. In the aftermath of the midterm election massacre, Obamas approval ratings hit an all-time low. A McClatchy-Marist survey conducted in December found that only 42% of registered voters approved of the job the president was doing. According to a Gallup poll also conducted at the time, Obamas approval rating with self-ascribed liberals was also at its lowest point. Later that month, Obama compromised with Republicans on extending the Bush tax cuts for two more years. Obama had originally promised not to extend the tax cuts for the wealthy, but eventually agreed to extend the tax cuts for everyone. This infuriated his base. About two weeks later, the repeal of Dont Ask, Dont Tell was passed in both houses of Congress and was signed by the president. Most Republicans opposed this and accused Obama of undermining the military. Thus, in the month of December, President Obama acted on two of his most important domestic legislative initiatives. He angered his base in one case, and the Republicans in the other. The end result, according to a recent Gallup poll, was his highest approval rating since May of 2010.
