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Campaigning for
President 2008
“The editor of this fine volume, Dennis W. Johnson, asks in the opening chapter
whether the presidential election of 2008 was unlike any other in American history.
The answer to that question is an unqualified ‘yes’—on this we can agree. But the
devil is always in the details. Campaigning for President 2008 answers the more
important question of how this election was unlike any other. Johnson brings
together the finest practitioners, pundits, and scholars to analyze the 2008
campaign from the inside out, and from top to bottom. An invaluable contribution
to our understanding of how presidential campaigns and elections work.”
—Christopher Malone, Associate Professor of Political Science and Director,
Pforzheimer Honors College, Pace University
“In Campaigning for President 2008, Dennis W. Johnson et al. examine the right
questions about the 2008 election with current data and real-world insights. The
book provides timely analysis from respected academics and expert campaign
professionals of what in many respects was a remarkable election.”
—David B. Magleby, Distinguished Professor of Political Science, Dean, College
of Family, Home and Social Sciences, Brigham Young University
“This volume will quickly become a must-read for those looking for a thoughtful
analysis of the historic 2008 presidential election. Johnson does a masterful job of
framing the expert analysis (on topics such as campaign finance, the youth vote,
and media strategy) in the context of past presidential elections and the scholarly
literature on campaigns and elections. I will definitely assign this book in my
courses.”
—Judithanne Scourfield McLauchlan, University of South Florida St.
Petersburg, Founding Director of the Center for Civic Engagement
In this important and timely volume, Dennis W. Johnson has assembled an outstanding
team of political science and political journalism scholars and veteran campaign
consultants to examine the most exciting presidential campaign in memory. Campaigning
for President 2008 focuses on the strategies and tactics used by the presidential candidates,
the new voices and new techniques used to generate support and persuade voters, and
the activities of outside interests trying to influence the outcome. The experienced team
of contributors explain how Obama triumphed in the primaries and how Clinton fell
short; and how McCain came back from the politically dead. In this fascinating account,
the authors examine the brilliant moves, the mistakes and miscalculations, and the tug of
forces over which neither campaign had control.
Dennis W. Johnson is professor of political management at the George Washington
University Graduate School of Political Management.
Campaigning for
President 2008
Strategy and Tactics, New Voices
and New Techniques
To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge’s
collection of thousands of eBooks please go to www.eBookstore.tandf.co.uk.
© 2009 Taylor & Francis
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or
reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic,
mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented,
including photocopying and recording, or in any information
storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from
the publishers.
Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks
or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation
without intent to infringe.
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Campaigning for president 2008: strategy and tactics, new voices and new
techniques / edited by Dennis W. Johnson.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Presidents–United States–Election–2008. 2. Political campaigns–United
States. 3. United States–Politics and government–2001– I. Johnson, Dennis W.
JK5262008 .C36 2009
324.973¢0931–dc22
2008055585
List of Illustrations ix
Preface xi
PART 1
The Primaries 29
PART 2
New Voices and New Techniques 103
PART 3
The General Election 161
Appendices 229
A: Timeline of the 2008 Presidential Campaign 231
B: Presidential, Vice Presidential, and Other Candidates 236
C: Candidates, Campaign Organizations, and Consultants 243
D: Primary and Caucus Results 249
E: General Election Results 251
F: Campaign Spending 256
G: Remembering the Campaign of 2008 259
Figures
5.1 Jeremiah Wright on Cable Talk Shows 80
5.2 Jeremiah Wright Coverage 88
5.3 Intermedia Relationships over Time between Cable News and
YouTube 91
5.4 Intermedia Relationships over Time between Broadcast News
and YouTube 92
5.5 Jeremiah Wright at the National Press Club 93
5.6 Obama Responses to the Ross Report 94
6.1 Turnout of 18–29 Year Olds in Presidential Elections,
1972–2008 106
6.2 Youth Vote (Ages 18–29) Support in Presidential Elections,
1976–2008 109
11.1 Susan B. Anthony List Mailer on Abortion 194
11.2 AFL-CIO Mailer on John McCain’s Wealth 197
Tables
1.1 Democratic and Republican Presidential Candidates 3
1.2 Primary and Caucus Season, 1976–2008 6
1.3 Battleground States Shift from Republican in 2004 to
Democratic in 2008 24
3.1 Campaign Fundraising by Clinton and Obama during the
Primaries 57
3.2 Spending by Clinton’s Presidential Campaign 58
4.1 Southern Republican Leadership Conference Straw Poll,
March 11, 2006 61
4.2 Wisconsin State Republican Convention Straw Poll,
May 20, 2006 62
4.3 Polling Results for Republican Candidates, Late 2006
to Early 2007 64
4.4 Polling Results for Republican Candidates, Late March 2007 64
x Illustrations
4.5 Presidential Candidate Fundraising Totals, Second Quarter
2007 65
4.6 Presidential Candidate Fundraising Totals, Third Quarter
2007 68
4.7 Harris Poll of Republican Base Supporters, May 15, 2007 69
4.8 Ames, Iowa Straw Poll, August 12, 2007 70
4.9 Polling Results for Republican Candidates, Third Quarter
2007 71
4.10 Major Republican Candidates’ Fundraising, First Quarter
2007 to First Quarter 2008 75
5.1 Timeline of Jeremiah Wright News Events 88
5.2 Intermedia Correlations for Jeremiah Wright 91
6.1 Turnout of 18–29 Year Olds in the Presidential Primaries,
2008 112
7.1 Summary of Presidential Campaign Financing, August 31,
2008 131
7.2 Large Individual Donations 135
7.3 Small Individual Donations 137
10.1 George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll,
September 7 to November 2, 2008 178
10.2 Percentage of the Vote Earned by the Two Major Parties,
1900–2008 182
11.1 Non-Party Independent Expenditures in the Presidential
Campaign, 2008 199
12.1 Primary and General Election Ad Spending in Selected
States: Obama, McCain, and Republican National Committee 212
12.2 Most Watched Internet and Mainstream Media Videos 220
Preface
The 2008 presidential election was the longest, most expensive, and one of the
most interesting contests in memory. It was the first truly wide-open election
since 1952, and twenty major-party candidates declared themselves ready to be
the next president. It was filled with familiar names, like John McCain, Hillary
Clinton, and Rudy Giuliani, and had its share of little-knowns, like Tom
Tancredo, Tommy Thompson, and Tom Vilsack. It featured a Democratic
primary season that lasted far beyond anyone expected, not giving us a clear
victor until June. We learned about the internal rules of party campaigning: the
winner-take-all system of the Republican Party, which led to a relatively quick
victory for McCain, and the proportional system of delegate selection in the
Democratic Party that helped drag out the contests and gave a substantial
boost to Barack Obama. We learned about Democratic super delegates, and
how the selection of a nominee was not simply about amassing primary and
caucus support. And we learned, again on the Democratic side, the importance
of going after caucus delegates, not just focusing on big-state primary wins.
Along with familiar faces and unknowns came two newcomers. Barack
Obama, virtually unknown to the American public before his 2004 keynote
address at the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Boston, over the
course of the long journey eventually became a known commodity to the
American public. Sarah Palin, known to very few outside of her home state,
burst onto the political scene just twelve weeks before election day and for a
while became a central force in shaping the general election dynamics.
The contest was non-stop, with more polls taken than in any previous
presidential contest and more attention paid by cable and network television,
YouTube, social network sites, bloggers, and viral emails. New media came
into their own as potent communication vehicles. We were entertained by the
Obama Girl, Hillary Clinton singing off-key, and Joe the Plumber; we were
bombarded with emails warning that Obama was a Muslim who palled around
with terrorists. But, in the end, online media did not replace the tried and
tested vehicle of television advertising, where both campaigns spent record
amounts of money on commercials.
The Obama campaign—efficient, relentless, on-message, loaded with money
—was the best presidential campaign we have ever witnessed. It contrasted
2 Dennis W. Johnson
sharply with the McCain campaign, which struggled mightily after the euphoria
of its convention week.
We have not witnessed another presidential campaign so filled with external
drama. The mid-September financial meltdown, the emergency $700 billion
bailout, the collapse of consumer confidence—all came in the crucial last few
weeks of the campaign. Probably more than anything else, the economic
collapse and the legacy of George W. Bush stopped McCain in his tracks.
The presidential campaign of 2008 was filled with potent symbols. Sarah
Palin, the fresh voice of conservative values, became the first female vice
presidential candidate for the Republican Party. Hillary Clinton came close to
securing the Democratic nomination and in the process caused “18 million
cracks in the glass ceiling.” And, of course, Barack Obama—the son of a
black Kenyan father and a white Kansas mother—bore enormous symbolic
importance as America’s first African American president.
It was an exciting, dramatic election, filled with interesting twists and turns,
some caused by the mistakes or smart thinking of the candidates and their
campaigns, some caused by external forces over which the candidates had little
or no control. It was indeed a transformational election.
The Candidates
With twenty officially declared candidates, this was a large field. But in
comparison to past cycles, it was not too unusual. What was different was that
in this wide-open contest, there were plenty of candidates for both major
parties. Past elections had brought out scores of hopefuls. In 2004, for
example, there were ten declared Democratic candidates hoping to run against
incumbent George W. Bush;1 in 2000, there were two Democratic and ten
Republican candidates;2 in 1996, there were eleven Republican candidates;3
in 1988, there were nine Democrats and six Republicans;4 in 1984, there were
eight Democrats;5 and in 1976, there were fifteen Democrats and four
Republicans (including the incumbent president, Gerald Ford).6
In 2008, there were nine Democrats and eleven Republicans vying for their
parties’ nominations (Table 1.1). Most of the candidates announced their
intentions to run at least a year before the first caucus, held in Iowa in early
January 2008. One current and five former governors vied for the nomination.
They were joined by two current and two former members of Congress;
a former big city mayor; three former U.S. senators; and, remarkably, six sitting
members of the U.S. Senate. Unlike in recent past elections, there were no
wealthy business people or civil rights activists running for the 2008 nomina-
tions.7 There were the usual third party candidates, but unlike in the razor-thin
election in 2000, none of these, including perennial candidate Ralph Nader,
had a discernible impact on the November outcome.8
For nearly all of American history, major-party candidates for the presidency
have been white men mostly in their fifties or sixties. But since 1972, candi-
dates of color and women candidates have emerged. Before Barack Obama,
An Election Like No Other? 3
Table 1.1 Democratic and Republican Presidential Candidates
Democrats
Joseph Biden, U.S. senator, Delaware, 65a
Hillary R. Clinton, U.S. senator, New York, 60
Christopher Dodd, U.S. senator, Connecticut, 64
John Edwards, former U.S. senator, North Carolina, 55
Mike Gravel, former U.S. senator, Alaska, 78
Dennis Kucinich, U.S. congressman, Ohio, 61
Barack Obama, U.S. senator, Illinois, 46
Bill Richardson, New Mexico governor, 66
Tom Vilsack, former Iowa governor, 47
Republicans
Sam Brownback, U.S. senator, Kansas, 52
James Gilmore, former Virginia governor, 58
Rudolph (Rudy) Giuliani, former New York City mayor, 64
Mike Huckabee, former Arkansas governor, 52
Duncan Hunter, U.S. congressman, California, 60
John S. McCain, U.S. senator, Arizona, 72
Ron Paul, former U.S. congressman, Texas, 72
Mitt Romney, former Massachusetts governor, 62
Tom Tancredo, U.S. congressman, Colorado, 63
Fred Thompson, former U.S. senator, Tennessee, 66
Tommy Thompson, former governor, Wisconsin, 66
Note: a Candidates’ ages are as of January 1, 2008. For a thumbnail biography of each candidate,
see Appendix B
there have been several African Americans running for the presidency. Civil
rights activist Al Sharpton and former Illinois senator Carol Moseley Braun
were Democratic candidates in 2004. Alan Keyes, religious conservative and
former Reagan administration official, ran for the Republican nomination in
1996, 2000, and for a time in 2008. Virginia governor L. Douglas Wilder was
briefly a candidate for the Democratic nomination in 1992. Civil rights activist
Jesse Jackson ran in the 1984 and 1988 Democratic primaries. New York
congresswoman Shirley Chisholm ran for the Democratic nomination in 1972.
Hillary Clinton was hardly the first woman from a major party to run
for president.9 Maine senator Margaret Chase Smith ran in the Republican
primaries in 1964; Shirley Chisholm ran in 1972. Also in 1972, Hawaii con-
gresswoman Patsy Mink and New York congresswoman Bella Abzug competed
for the Democratic nomination. Ellen McCormack ran for the Democratic
nomination in 1976 and 1980; Colorado congresswoman Patricia Schroeder
ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 1988. Former secretary of
transportation and secretary of labor Elizabeth Dole ran for the Republican
nomination in 2000. (Dole and her husband, former Kansas senator Robert
Dole, were the first husband–wife combination to run for the presidency, not
the Clintons.) Former senator Carol Moseley Braun ran for the Democratic
nomination in 2004. Hillary Clinton, of course, breaks the mold for being the
4 Dennis W. Johnson
best known of any female candidate and the one who went the farthest. Then
came Sarah H. Palin, governor of Alaska, who was chosen by McCain to be his
running mate. Palin was not a candidate for the Republican presidential
nomination, and thus off the radar screen of the media and the public until the
day her selection was announced. She then came to be the darling and the
energizer of the conservative wing of the Republican Party.
From 1960 through 2004, fifty-eight U.S. senators (or former senators)
sought the presidential nomination. But only one, John F. Kennedy of
Massachusetts, was able to vault from the Senate chamber directly to the presi-
dency. Other senators received their parties’ nominations, but were defeated
in the general election: Arizona Republican Barry Goldwater (1964); South
Dakota Democratic George McGovern (1972); Kansas Republican former
senator Robert Dole (1996); Massachusetts Democratic John Kerry (2004).
In 2008, a total of nine former or current senators competed for their
parties’ nominations, and in the end both the Republican and the Democratic
candidates were sitting senators, something never seen in American history.
The Primaries
Altogether, there was a record number of sixty-eight primaries and caucuses
held in 2008. In the United States’ uniquely federal system of elections, each
state determines the rules for its nominating election. Most states hold
primaries, where registered voters go to their voting precincts to cast their
choice in secret. The majority of states hold “closed” primaries, where voters
may choose only from the list of candidates in their own party. Some states
hold “open” primaries, where any registered voter can select a candidate from
one party. Several states, the most conspicuous being Iowa, hold caucuses.
Caucuses are meetings of party faithful who gather in small groups, at the
precinct level, to discuss the candidates of their party, divide themselves up into
groups according to the candidate they support, and are apportioned delegate
strength based on the size of the groups. At later dates, the delegates from
the precinct caucuses assemble at the next highest level, the county caucuses,
and then finally at the state level for each party.
In the primary and caucus elections (for convenience, we simply will call
them “primaries”), delegates can be either “pledged” (required to vote for
their candidate in the first ballot at the national nominating convention) or
“unpledged” (not having that requirement). These requirements are deter-
mined by the states or the state political parties. Added to this mix, and
explained in Chapter 2, are the Democratic Party super delegates, who are
senior party officials not bound by the primary election outcomes.
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