Status Report Insurance Institute for Highway Safety | Highway Loss Data Institute

Saving
lives
Improved vehicle designs
bring down death rates

ALSO IN
THIS ISSUE
4
Death rates by make and model
Vol. 50, No. 1 4
Crashes around football stadiums
January 29, 2015 go up when the home team loses
T
he chances of dying in a crash in a The latest death rates by make and model Driver death rates by vehicle style and size
late-model vehicle have fallen by confirm the rapid pace of improvement. 2011 and equivalent earlier models, 2009-12
more than a third in three years, the Among 2011 models, there were 28 driver Overall MV SV SV roll
latest IIHS calculations of driver death deaths per million registered vehicle years CARS 38 22 16 6
rates show. Among 2011 models, a record through the 2012 calendar year, down 4-DOOR mini 115 71 44 13
nine vehicles have driver death rates of from 48 for 2008 models through 2009 (see
small 51 28 22 11
zero. However, the gap between the safest Status Report, June 9, 2011, at iihs.org). A
and riskiest models remains wide, and registered vehicle year is one vehicle regis- midsize 29 19 10 4
three cars have death rates exceeding 100 tered for one year. large 34 21 14 3
per million registered vehicle years. “This is a huge improvement in just three very large 24 15 9 0
Improved vehicle designs and safety tech- years, even considering the economy’s in- 2-DOOR mini 54 33 22 8
nology have a lot to do with the continuing fluence,” says David Zuby, IIHS executive
small 71 42 27 12
decline in fatality risk. In a related study, In- vice president and chief research officer.
midsize 43 32 8 3
stitute researchers estimated how much of “We know from our vehicle ratings pro-
the decline was due to changes in the ve- gram that crash test performance has been large 37 0 37 22
hicle fleet during 1985-2012. They found getting steadily better. These latest death SPORTS small 0 0 0 0
that vehicle changes — including improved rates provide new confirmation that real- midsize 50 19 32 16
structural designs, the addition of safety fea- world outcomes are improving, too.” large 67 15 51 22
tures and an evolving mix of vehicle types Although the numbers reflect 2011
LUXURY midsize 14 5 10 5
— were the main source of declining risk models, data from earlier model-year vehi-
from 1993 through 2006. These changes cles as far back as 2008 are included if the large 26 13 12 3
continued to contribute to later declines as vehicles weren’t substantially redesigned very large 10 8 1 0
well, though other factors such as the weak before 2011. Including older, equivalent STATION mini 37 35 3 3
economy also appear to have played a role. vehicles increases the exposure and thus WAGONS
small 41 25 16 7
the accuracy of the results. To be included,
midsize 7 4 3 2
a vehicle must have had at least 100,000
MINIVANS 23 17 5 2
registered vehicle years of exposure during
2009-12 or at least 20 deaths. SUVs 18 9 9 4
IIHS has published death rates by make 4-WHEEL small 22 11 11 3
and model periodically since 1989, at first DRIVE
midsize 16 7 9 4
for cars only and later for all passenger vehi- large 8 3 4 2
cles (see Status Report, Nov. 25, 1989). The
very large 18 10 7 4
rates include only driver deaths because the
presence of passengers is unknown. Fatality 2-WHEEL small 32 20 11 4
DRIVE
counts are taken from the federal Fatality midsize 17 7 9 4
Analysis Reporting System. Registration large 15 8 7 4
data are from R.L. Polk & Co. very large 31 15 15 6
The rates are adjusted for driver age and 4-WHEEL midsize 10 5 4 1
gender, but not all the demographic factors DRIVE
large 13 2 12 8
that can influence results are accounted LUXURY
for. Four years ago when IIHS released very large 17 9 8 0
death rates for 2008 models, researchers 2-WHEEL midsize 15 7 8 3
found that they needed to include an ad- DRIVE
LUXURY
justment for calendar year in order to ac-
count for the effects of the recession. For PICKUPS 29 15 14 5
A firefighter uses an extrication tool at the this reason, researchers developed another 4-WHEEL small 32 14 18 6
Vehicle Research Center during a First Re- model that included the calendar year ad- DRIVE
large 29 14 15 6
sponders Emergency Extrication event. Fire justment, as well as adjustments for vehi- very large 39 15 24 14
departments from the Mid-Atlantic region cle age and vehicle density at the garaging
2-WHEEL small 29 18 10 5
tested Holmatro gear on late-model cars pro- location, in addition to driver age and DRIVE
large 26 15 11 2
vided by State Farm. gender. That more-complex model worked
well at the time, but when researchers
used it to calculate the 2011 death rates, KEY:
overall: driver deaths per million registered vehicle years
There were 7,700 fewer driver deaths in the results were unstable. Since the U.S. mv: driver death rate in multiple-vehicle crashes
2012 alone than there would have been had economy didn’t see such large fluctua- sv: driver death rate in single-vehicle crashes of all types
vehicles remained the same since 1985. tions during the new time period, » page 6 sv roll: driver death rate in single-vehicle rollovers (subset of sv)

2 | Status Report — Vol. 50, No. 1

Models with the highest and lowest rates of driver deaths
Lowest rates of driver deaths Highest rates of driver deaths
Fewer than 6 driver deaths per million registered vehicle More than 46 driver deaths per million registered vehicle
years, 2011 and equivalent earlier models, 2009-12 Overall MV SV SV roll years, 2011 and equivalent earlier models, 2009-12 Overall MV SV SV roll

Audi A4 4WD luxury car midsize 0 0 0 0 Kia Rio 4-door car mini 149 96 54 15

Honda Odyssey minivan very large 0 0 0 0 Nissan Versa sedan 4-door car small 130 44 87 51

Kia Sorento 2WD SUV midsize 0 0 0 0 Hyundai Accent 4-door car mini 120 65 53 16

Lexus RX 350 4WD luxury SUV midsize 0 0 0 0 Chevrolet Aveo 4-door car mini 99 65 31 10

Mercedes-Benz GL-Class 4WD luxury SUV large 0 0 0 0 Hyundai Accent 2-door car mini 86 43 48 20

Subaru Legacy 4WD 4-door car midsize 0 0 0 0 Chevrolet Camaro coupe sports car large 80 19 60 25

Toyota Highlander hybrid 4WD SUV midsize 0 0 0 0 Chevrolet Silverado 1500 Crew 4WD pickup large 79 40 36 17

Toyota Sequoia 4WD SUV large 0 0 0 0 Honda Civic 2-door car small 76 46 29 10

Volvo XC90 4WD luxury SUV midsize 0 0 0 0 Nissan Versa hatchback 4-door car small 71 37 33 20

Honda Pilot 4WD SUV midsize 2 0 2 0 Ford Focus 4-door car small 70 55 13 5

Mercedes-Benz M-Class 4WD luxury SUV midsize 3 3 0 0 Nissan Cube station wagon small 66 38 29 6

Ford Crown Victoria 4-door car very large 4 4 0 0 Chevrolet HHR station wagon small 61 34 25 9

GMC Yukon 4WD SUV large 4 0 4 0 Chevrolet Suburban 1500 2WD SUV very large 60 31 28 9

Acura TL 2WD luxury car midsize 5 5 0 0 Chevrolet Aveo station wagon mini 58 58 0 0

Chevrolet Equinox 2WD SUV midsize 5 3 2 0 Mercury Grand Marquis 4-door car very large 57 33 25 0

Chevrolet Equinox 4WD SUV midsize 5 5 0 0 Jeep Patriot 2WD SUV small 57 44 9 3

Ford Expedition 4WD SUV large 5 5 0 0 Mazda 6 4-door car midsize 54 34 17 3

Ford Flex 2WD SUV midsize 5 0 5 0 Dodge Nitro 2WD SUV midsize 51 7 50 40

Mazda CX-9 4WD SUV midsize 5 0 5 5 Honda Civic 4-door car small 49 28 21 8

KEY:
overall: driver deaths per million registered vehicle years
mv: driver death rate in multiple-vehicle crashes
sv: driver death rate in single-vehicle crashes of all types
sv roll: driver death rate in single-vehicle rollovers (subset of sv)
2WD: 2-wheel drive | 4WD: 4-wheel drive

January 29, 2015 |3

 Death rates Model
Overall MV SV SV roll years Exposure

Death rates by
ALL PASSENGER VEHICLES 28 (27-30) 16 12 5 2008-11 62,932,462
4-DOOR CARS
mini
Chevrolet Aveo 99 (55-143) 65 31 10 2008-11 296,315

make and model

Hyundai Accent 120 (69-171) 65 53 16 2008-11 273,617
Kia Rio 149 (94-204) 96 54 15 2008-11 258,137
small
Toyota Prius hybrid 16 (5-28) 9 7 4 2010-11 622,139
Toyota Corolla 32 (19-44) 18 15 6 2010-11 1,114,543
Chevrolet Cruze 42 (4-80) 35 4 0 2011 171,570
Driver deaths per million registered vehicle years Kia Forte 46 (9-82) 31 12 4 2010-11 190,081
Honda Civic 49 (38-61) 28 21 8 2008-11 1,954,222
Ford Focus 70 (39-101) 55 13 5 2010-11 410,771
These rates are for 2011 models, but results are included for earlier Nissan Versa hatchback 71 (45-96) 37 33 20 2008-11 556,730
model years as far back as 2008 if the vehicle wasn’t substantially Nissan Versa sedan 130 (75-185) 44 87 51 2008-11 276,648
midsize
redesigned during that time. A change in electronic stability control Subaru Legacy 4WD 0 (0-32) 0 0 0 2010-11 116,291
from not available or optional to standard is treated as a redesign. Acura TSX 7 (0-17) 7 0 0 2009-11 216,674
Volkswagen CC 8 (0-23) 0 8 0 2009-11 101,114
Exposure is the number of registered vehicle years. A registered vehicle Honda Accord 19 (13-24) 12 7 2 2008-11 2,758,908
year is one vehicle registered for one year. Volkswagen Jetta 20 (0-44) 20 0 0 2011 112,225
Nissan Maxima 28 (12-43) 18 10 2 2009-11 357,008
Rates are adjusted for driver age and gender. Toyota Camry hybrid 29 (11-46) 19 10 3 2008-11 294,261
Ford Fusion 2WD 32 (17-47) 19 14 10 2010-11 641,184
Information on deaths is from the National Highway Traffic Safety Hyundai Sonata 34 (9-59) 11 25 3 2011 280,780
Administration’s Fatality Analysis Reporting System. Data on vehicle Toyota Camry 35 (23-48) 22 12 4 2010-11 1,026,466
registrations comes from R.L. Polk & Co. Chevrolet Malibu 41 (26-56) 26 16 6 2009-11 1,042,795
Nissan Altima 44 (23-66) 35 7 3 2010-11 537,497
Mazda 6 54 (14-93) 34 17 3 2009-11 222,880
large
KEY: Ford Taurus 2WD 20 (0-40) 10 10 0 2010-11 154,873
overall: all crash types; numbers in parentheses are 95 percent confidence bounds Chevrolet Impala 35 (15-56) 27 8 2 2010-11 468,830
mv: driver deaths in multiple-vehicle crashes Toyota Avalon 37 (9-65) 22 15 5 2009-11 145,206
sv: driver deaths in single-vehicle crashes Buick Lacrosse 2WD 43 (7-80) 21 25 0 2010-11 153,002
sv roll: driver deaths in single-vehicle rollovers (subset of sv) very large
2WD: 2-wheel drive | 4WD: 4-wheel drive Ford Crown Victoria 4 (0-12) 4 0 0 2009-11 193,425
Mercury Grand Marquis 57 (19-95) 33 25 0 2009-11 120,360
2-DOOR CARS
mini
Mini Cooper 21 (0-48) 21 0 0 2009-11 170,586
Smart Fortwo coupe 36 (4-68) 30 7 0 2008-11 106,146
Hyundai Accent 86 (42-131) 43 48 20 2008-11 227,164
small
Honda Civic 76 (47-105) 46 29 10 2008-11 535,147
midsize
Honda Accord 42 (16-68) 37 2 0 2008-11 385,871
large
Dodge Challenger 29 (0-59) 0 29 14 2010-11 104,017
SPORTS CARS
large
Chevrolet Camaro coupe 80 (48-113) 19 60 25 2010-11 298,350
LUXURY CARS
midsize
Audi A4 4WD 0 (0-31) 0 0 0 2009-11 120,394
Acura TL 2WD 5 (0-16) 5 0 0 2009-11 139,458
Mercedes-Benz C-Class 4WD 7 (0-18) 0 7 0 2008-11 208,643
BMW 328i sedan 7 (0-15) 5 2 2 2008-11 322,057
Lexus ES 350 9 (2-16) 3 6 1 2008-11 573,619
BMW 328xi sedan 16 (0-42) 0 16 0 2008-11 171,409
Mercedes-Benz C-Class 2WD 10 (1-20) 4 6 2 2008-11 368,751
Lexus IS 250 2WD 16 (0-37) 7 11 10 2008-11 220,052
Lexus IS 250 4WD 30 (0-68) 0 30 6 2008-11 120,537
Infiniti G37 coupe 2WD 42 (12-72) 11 31 21 2008-11 145,678
large
Cadillac CTS sedan 2WD 21 (0-43) 6 16 5 2009-11 143,135
Cadillac DTS 46 (22-69) 32 15 6 2008-11 250,591
very large
Lexus LS 460 2WD 18 (0-55) 18 0 0 2008-11 110,210
STATION WAGONS
mini
Chevrolet Aveo 58 (17-100) 58 0 0 2009-11 105,060

4 | Status Report — Vol. 50, No. 1

 Death rates Model Death rates Model
Overall MV SV SV roll years Exposure Overall MV SV SV roll years Exposure
small GMC Yukon 2WD 7 (0-20) 0 7 0 2008-11 116,869
Subaru Impreza 4WD 25 (0-64) 25 0 0 2009-11 111,102 Nissan Armada 2WD 7 (0-21) 0 7 7 2008-11 111,238
Scion xB 31 (16-47) 20 11 4 2008-11 392,533 Buick Enclave 2WD 8 (0-16) 5 2 3 2008-11 300,006
Kia Soul 32 (12-52) 30 3 0 2010-11 238,659 Chevrolet Traverse 2WD 8 (0-17) 3 5 3 2009-11 296,227
Dodge Caliber 2WD 39 (19-58) 19 20 12 2008-11 574,523 GMC Acadia 4WD 8 (0-18) 3 5 3 2008-11 271,691
Chevrolet HHR 61 (30-91) 34 25 9 2009-11 397,838 Buick Enclave 4WD 10 (0-29) 0 10 10 2008-11 213,503
Nissan Cube 66 (14-118) 38 29 6 2009-11 131,761 Chevrolet Tahoe 4WD 10 (1-18) 6 4 2 2008-11 401,018
midsize Chevrolet Traverse 4WD 11 (0-24) 4 7 0 2009-11 206,139
Subaru Outback 4WD 6 (0-14) 0 6 3 2010-11 264,109 GMC Acadia 2WD 15 (1-29) 11 4 4 2008-11 391,239
Volkswagen Jetta 6 (0-18) 6 0 0 2009-11 124,544 Chevrolet Tahoe 2WD 18 (6-30) 8 10 4 2008-11 386,837
MINIVANS Ford Expedition 2WD 36 (3-68) 30 5 5 2008-11 165,001
very large very large
Honda Odyssey 0 (0-37) 0 0 0 2011 100,518 GMC Yukon XL 1500 4WD 9 (0-23) 9 0 0 2008-11 163,541
Kia Sedona 16 (0-37) 16 0 0 2008-11 221,446 Chevrolet Avalanche 1500 2WD 15 (0-36) 8 7 7 2008-11 101,293
Chrysler Town & Country 25 (15-35) 16 8 2 2008-11 1,109,920 Chevrolet Suburban 1500 4WD 17 (0-34) 14 2 0 2008-11 299,625
Dodge Grand Caravan 27 (15-39) 22 4 1 2008-11 1,061,095 Chevrolet Avalanche 1500 4WD 29 (5-53) 0 29 19 2008-11 156,690
Toyota Sienna 2WD 27 (0-66) 12 16 15 2011 148,898 Chevrolet Suburban 1500 2WD 60 (13-107) 31 28 9 2008-11 166,891
SUVs LUXURY SUVs
small midsize
Jeep Compass 2WD 7 (0-20) 7 0 0 2008-11 114,776 Lexus RX 350 4WD 0 (0-20) 0 0 0 2010-11 185,441
Jeep Patriot 4WD 11 (0-25) 4 7 4 2008-11 200,988 Volvo XC90 4WD 0 (0-33) 0 0 0 2008-11 111,610
Honda Element 4WD 12 (0-30) 7 6 0 2008-11 123,098 Mercedes-Benz M-Class 4WD 3 (0-10) 3 0 0 2008-11 236,380
Honda CR-V 4WD 17 (8-26) 9 8 2 2008-11 1,249,370 Lexus RX 350 2WD 6 (0-18) 6 0 0 2010-11 126,252
Honda CR-V 2WD 19 (8-31) 15 3 2 2008-11 759,316 Acura MDX 4WD 12 (0-24) 6 5 2 2008-11 423,632
Toyota RAV4 4WD 19 (8-29) 4 16 2 2008-11 931,863 Acura RDX 4WD 12 (0-28) 0 12 0 2008-11 130,291
Subaru Forester 4WD 20 (7-33) 18 1 0 2009-11 548,808 Lincoln MKX 4WD 12 (0-30) 12 0 0 2008-11 122,868
Nissan Rogue 4WD 25 (7-42) 12 14 0 2008-11 513,731 BMW X5 4WD 14 (0-31) 6 9 8 2008-11 262,354
Ford Escape 2WD 27 (9-46) 16 10 0 2009-11 541,561 Lincoln MKX 2WD 20 (0-43) 14 6 7 2008-11 114,683
Jeep Wrangler 2-door 4WD 34 (15-52) 11 24 12 2008-11 378,918 large
Ford Escape 4WD 35 (16-54) 28 8 4 2009-11 384,876 Mercedes-Benz GL-Class 4WD 0 (0-22) 0 0 0 2008-11 170,820
Toyota RAV4 2WD 35 (14-55) 12 25 10 2008-11 561,569 Land Rover Range Rover Sport 6 (0-18) 0 6 0 2008-11 127,130
Nissan Rogue 2WD 42 (16-67) 28 12 5 2008-11 299,848 4WD
Jeep Patriot 2WD 57 (20-95) 44 9 3 2008-11 248,487 Cadillac Escalade 4WD 37 (0-73) 6 33 26 2008-11 139,354
midsize PICKUPS
Kia Sorento 2WD 0 (0-35) 0 0 0 2011 106,363 small
Toyota Highlander hybrid 4WD 0 (0-26) 0 0 0 2008-11 141,251 Toyota Tacoma Double 19 (0-49) 19 0 0 2009-11 145,733
Honda Pilot 4WD 2 (0-7) 0 2 0 2009-11 344,213 short bed 2WD
Chevrolet Equinox 2WD 5 (0-12) 3 2 0 2010-11 302,463 Toyota Tacoma Double 20 (0-41) 11 10 5 2009-11 150,514
Chevrolet Equinox 4WD 5 (0-15) 5 0 0 2010-11 151,440 short bed 4WD
Ford Flex 2WD 5 (0-15) 0 5 0 2009-11 151,479 Toyota Tacoma Xtra 4WD 20 (0-44) 7 13 7 2009-11 112,892
Mazda CX-9 4WD 5 (0-16) 0 5 5 2008-11 143,907 Toyota Tacoma Xtra 2WD 28 (0-71) 28 0 0 2009-11 100,884
Jeep Grand Cherokee 4WD 7 (0-21) 7 0 0 2011 108,237 large
Toyota Highlander 2WD 7 (0-18) 5 2 2 2008-11 387,923 Dodge Ram 1500 Quad 4WD 8 (0-20) 0 8 4 2009-11 185,420
Honda Pilot 2WD 11 (0-34) 0 11 12 2009-11 180,017 Chevrolet Silverado 1500 Crew 12 (0-29) 6 6 6 2010-11 127,150
Hyundai Santa Fe 4WD 12 (0-24) 0 12 6 2008-11 259,481 2WD
Mazda CX-9 2WD 12 (0-29) 0 12 6 2008-11 126,339 Honda Ridgeline 4WD 13 (0-25) 13 0 0 2008-11 244,108
Dodge Nitro 4WD 13 (0-29) 5 9 4 2008-11 170,978 Toyota Tundra Double 15 (4-27) 7 8 2 2008-11 352,117
Toyota Venza 4WD 13 (0-31) 7 6 0 2009-11 118,931 short bed 4WD
Ford Edge 2WD 14 (3-25) 4 10 4 2008-11 625,197 Dodge Ram 1500 Crew 18 (0-39) 6 12 6 2009-11 125,958
Toyota Highlander 4WD 14 (0-28) 14 0 0 2008-11 530,715 short bed 2WD
Hyundai Santa Fe 2WD 16 (1-32) 11 5 5 2008-11 476,958 Toyota Tundra Double 18 (4-32) 14 5 3 2008-11 290,908
Toyota FJ Cruiser 4WD 18 (0-36) 5 13 4 2008-11 170,822 short bed 2WD
Jeep Liberty 4WD 19 (4-35) 7 14 2 2008-11 449,619 Ford F-150 Crew 2WD 19 (6-31) 13 6 0 2009-11 371,109
Jeep Wrangler 4-door 4WD 21 (7-35) 11 10 7 2008-11 517,661 Toyota Tundra Crew Max 4WD 20 (0-46) 5 18 4 2008-11 176,959
Nissan Murano 4WD 21 (0-43) 5 18 7 2009-11 298,811 Ford F-150 Super 2WD 24 (4-44) 17 8 0 2009-11 191,480
Toyota Venza 2WD 21 (0-47) 5 18 4 2009-11 173,444 Ford F-150 Crew 4WD 27 (13-40) 15 12 6 2009-11 719,382
Nissan Murano 2WD 25 (0-54) 25 0 0 2009-11 170,979 Dodge Ram 1500 Crew 28 (7-50) 17 12 4 2009-11 188,367
Dodge Journey 2WD 34 (8-61) 16 19 0 2009-11 326,409 short bed 4WD
Jeep Liberty 2WD 34 (0-73) 6 31 23 2008-11 126,600 Dodge Ram 1500 Quad 2WD 29 (3-54) 12 17 0 2009-11 133,799
GMC Terrain 2WD 38 (0-80) 29 6 0 2010-11 114,848 Ford F-150 Regular 2WD 30 (0-59) 5 27 0 2009-11 171,870
Ford Edge 4WD 41 (12-70) 17 24 14 2008-11 356,784 Chevrolet Silverado 1500 36 (8-64) 20 14 4 2010-11 206,052
Dodge Nitro 2WD 51 (0-107) 7 50 40 2008-11 109,765 Ext 4WD
large Ford F-150 Super 4WD 39 (19-58) 13 26 7 2009-11 318,178
Toyota Sequoia 4WD 0 (0-33) 0 0 0 2008-11 110,430 Toyota Tundra Crew Max 2WD 41 (0-83) 34 6 0 2008-11 122,927
GMC Yukon 4WD 4 (0-11) 0 4 0 2008-11 208,828 Chevrolet Silverado 1500 79 (40-117) 40 36 17 2010-11 227,007
Ford Expedition 4WD 5 (0-15) 5 0 0 2008-11 153,460 Crew 4WD

January 29, 2015 |5

 (« from page 2) the researchers went back to the previ-
ous model.

Getting to zero
The list of models with the lowest death rates illustrates
just how much vehicles have improved. Eight years ago,
there were no models with driver death rates of zero (see
Status Report, April 19, 2007). Now there are nine. These
vehicles — which include several luxury models but also
some less expensive ones such as the Kia Sorento midsize
SUV and the Subaru Legacy sedan — had no driver deaths
during the calendar years studied.
The presence of so many zeros among the latest death
rates comes at a time when more and more highway safety
advocates are setting their sights on a goal of zero deaths in
motor vehicle crashes. Sweden has been working toward
eliminating crash deaths since its parliament formally ad-
opted a “Vision Zero” policy in 1997. New York City now
has its own Vision Zero plan. The Governors Highway
The yellow line in the figure below shows what Safety Association unveiled a plan titled “Toward Zero
would have happened to death rates if vehicles Deaths” in 2009.
“The complete elimination of traffic deaths is still many
hadn’t changed over the years. Death rates would decades away, and, along with vehicle improvements, get-
have crept up between 1993 and 2006 instead of ting there will require changes in road design and public
policy that can help protect all road users,” Zuby says.
continuing their steady fall. “Still, the rise in the number of vehicles with zero driver
deaths shows what’s possible.”
Driver deaths per million registered passenger vehicles One striking thing about the group of zero-death vehi-
and expected rates if vehicles had not changed cles — aside from the sheer number — is that two-thirds
200
of them are SUVs.
■ actual rates
A decade ago, SUVs had some of the highest rates, due
■ expected rates
to their propensity to roll over (see Status Report, March
150
19, 2005). However, the spread of electronic stability con-
trol (ESC) through the fleet has dramatically lessened the
100 risk of rollover crashes in these and all vehicles. The rollover
death rate of 5 per million registered vehicle years for 2011
models is less than a quarter of what it was for 2004 models.
50 With ESC dramatically reducing rollover risk, the in-
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 herent advantages offered by SUVs’ greater size, weight
calendar year
and height emerge more clearly. Today’s SUVs have the
lowest driver death rate of any vehicle type.

Small vehicles, high death rates

The vehicle with the highest death rate among the 2011
models is the Kia Rio, a minicar, with 149 driver deaths
per million registered vehicle years. It’s one of only three
vehicles with death rates above 100.
Minicars and small cars dominate the worst list. That’s not
surprising, since these vehicles can’t protect as well as larger
ones. Death rates by vehicle type and size show that the small-
est vehicles typically have the highest death rates, and, with
some exceptions, death rates tend to go down as size goes up.

The effect of vehicle design

The driver death rates IIHS publishes allow consumers
to compare specific vehicles. They also show differences

6 | Status Report — Vol. 50, No. 1

among various classes and sizes of vehicles. What they
don’t do is show what portion of the overall decline in
deaths can be attributed to a changing vehicle mix, im-
Home team loss boosts
provements in vehicle design and the spread of technology
like ESC, and what portion is due to other factors such as
improvements in driver behavior resulting from changes
collision claim rates
in traffic laws and enforcement or from safer intersections
and road designs.
To answer that question, IIHS researchers updated a
around NFL stadiums
2006 study that predicted what would have happened to As any sports fan knows, it’s easy to be driven to distraction by the home team’s tra-
driver death rates if vehicles had not changed (see Status vails. A new HLDI study quantifies that effect, showing that the rate of collision claims
Report, April 22, 2006). associated with the ZIP codes around an NFL stadium is higher on days when the
As they did in the earlier study, the authors estimated home team loses or ties than when it wins.
the effect of vehicle age and calendar year on death rates. HLDI analysts looked at collision claims for ZIP codes in which the 31 NFL stadi-
Calendar year differences are assumed to be due to factors ums are located, as well as adjacent ZIP codes. Claim frequency was higher on home
common to all vehicles — for example, weather or laws af- game days, compared with other days. The effect was especially pronounced in the ZIP
fecting driver behavior. By controlling for these effects, the codes where the stadiums are located, though it was also present in the surrounding
authors were able to isolate the effects of vehicle changes. ZIP codes.
The researchers found that 1985-95 fleets weren’t as
protective of their drivers as the 1984 fleet, but vehicles
steadily improved after that. From 1993 through 2006, ve-
hicle changes were the main source of the decline in driver
death risk. Had vehicles not improved during that time,
the longstanding downward trend of driver fatality rates
would have ended in 1993.
“In some ways, the ’90s weren’t a great time for high-
way safety policy. Speed limits increased, and belt use
gains leveled off,” says IIHS President Adrian Lund, a co- Estimated effect of game outcome
author of both the 2006 study and the new one. “How- on collision claim frequency
ever, consumers began to think more about the safety of
vehicles, thanks at least in part to the increasing availabil-
10%
ity of crash test ratings from both the National Highway
Traffic Safety Administration and the Institute. Manufac-
5%
turers responded to the ratings by making improvements,
and this process has accelerated in recent years, thanks to
0%
© Danny Hooks/Veer

shorter design cycles.”

While the number of lives saved from vehicle improve-
-5%
ments is good news, the flip side of the study is the missed home team win home team loss or tie
opportunities for reducing fatality risk by other means.
Lower speed limits, stronger safety belt laws and wider use
of automated enforcement are just a few examples of pol- In HLDI’s claims data, the ZIP codes reflect the vehicle’s garaging location, and not
icies that could have reduced the death toll even further the location of the crash. Thus, crashes involving the vehicles of people who live else-
(see Status Report, Aug. 18, 2011). where and drove into the ZIP code for the game aren’t included. In addition, some
Since 2006, improvements in vehicle design have contin- crashes of vehicles garaged near the stadium could have taken place elsewhere. Nev-
ued to play a big role in declining fatality risk, though the risk ertheless, the pattern of increased claim frequency on home game days is probably
would have fallen somewhat even without vehicle changes, connected to higher traffic volumes around the stadiums on those days.
the study shows. A small increase in safety belt use and On days when the home team won, the rate of collision claims was 3.2 percent
other improvements in driver behavior may have contrib- higher than on days without a home game. On days when the team lost or tied, the
uted to this reduced risk by calendar year, but the big- claim rate was 9.4 percent higher than on days without a home game. Only the in-
gest factor was probably the weak economy. This means crease for a loss or tie was statistically significant.
that fatality rates could be expected to rise again when the “The game day effect was much more pronounced at some stadiums than at
economy improves unless better traffic safety policies are others,” says HLDI Vice President Matt Moore. “This may point to differences in po-
put in place. licing and traffic management strategies, which could present opportunities for
For a copy of “The effects of vehicle redesign on the risk improvement.”
of driver death” by C.M. Farmer and A.K. Lund, email For a copy of the HLDI bulletin “Collision claim frequencies and NFL games,” email
publications@iihs.org. n publications@iihs.org. n

January 29, 2015 |7

 Insurance Institute for Highway Safety
Highway Loss Data Institute

Status Report
Safer vehicles help reduce chances IIHS is an independent, nonprofit scientific and educational organization dedicated to reducing the losses — deaths, injuries and
property damage — from crashes on the nation’s roads.
of dying in a crash42
HLDI shares and supports this mission through scientific studies of insurance data representing the human and economic losses
Death rates by make and model44 resulting from the ownership and operation of different types of vehicles and by publishing insurance loss results by vehicle make
and model.
Crashes rise near NFL stadiums Both organizations are wholly supported by the following auto insurers and funding associations:
when the home team loses47
MEMBER GROUPS Liberty Mutual Insurance Company
All cover story photographs were taken by IIHS Acceptance Insurance Louisiana Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company
photographers at a First Responder Emergency ACE Private Risk Services Main Street America Insurance Group
Extrication event hosted by IIHS, State Farm, the Affirmative Insurance Mercury Insurance Group
National Auto Body Council, the Craftsman Auto Alfa Alliance Insurance Corporation MetLife Auto & Home
Body Group and Holmatro at the IIHS Vehicle Alfa Insurance Michigan Millers Mutual Insurance Company
Allstate Insurance Group MiddleOak
Research Center in Ruckersville, Va.
American Family Mutual Insurance Company Mississippi Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Company
American National MMG Insurance
Vol. 50, No. 1 Ameriprise Auto & Home Munich Reinsurance America, Inc.
Amica Mutual Insurance Company Mutual of Enumclaw Insurance Company
January 29, 2015 Auto Club Enterprises Nationwide
Auto Club Group New Jersey Manufacturers Insurance Group
Auto-Owners Insurance Nodak Mutual Insurance Company
Aviva Insurance Norfolk & Dedham Group
Bankers Insurance Group North Carolina Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company
Bitco Insurance Companies Northern Neck Insurance Company
California Casualty Group Ohio Mutual Insurance Group
Capital Insurance Group Old American County Mutual Fire Insurance
Inquiries/print subscriptions: Censtat Casualty Company Old American Indemnity Company
Chubb & Son Oregon Mutual Insurance
StatusReport@iihs.org Colorado Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company Pekin Insurance
Concord Group Insurance Companies PEMCO Insurance
Cotton States Insurance Plymouth Rock Assurance
Copy may be republished with attribution. COUNTRY Financial Progressive Insurance
Images require permission to use. CSAA Insurance Group The Responsive Auto Insurance Company
CSE Insurance Group Rockingham Group
Direct General Corporation Safe Auto Insurance Company
Editor: Kim Stewart Erie Insurance Group Safeco Insurance Companies
Writer: Sarah Karush Esurance Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Company
Farm Bureau Financial Services SECURA Insurance
Art Director: Steve Ewens Farm Bureau Insurance of Michigan Sentry Insurance
Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company of Idaho Shelter Insurance Companies
Farmers Insurance Group Sompo Japan Insurance Company of America
Farmers Mutual Hail Insurance Company of Iowa South Carolina Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company
Farmers Mutual of Nebraska Southern Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Company
Florida Farm Bureau Insurance Companies State Auto Insurance Companies
Frankenmuth Insurance State Farm Insurance Companies
Gainsco Insurance Tennessee Farmers Mutual Insurance Company
GEICO Corporation Texas Farm Bureau Insurance Companies
iihs.org The General Insurance Tower Group Companies
Georgia Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company The Travelers Companies
Goodville Mutual Casualty Company United Educators
iihs.org/rss Grange Insurance USAA
Hallmark Insurance Company Utica National Insurance Group
Hanover Insurance Group Virginia Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance
youtube.com/IIHS
The Hartford West Bend Mutual Insurance Company
Haulers Insurance Company, Inc. Western National Insurance Group
@IIHS_autosafety Horace Mann Insurance Companies Westfield Insurance
ICW Group XL Group plc
Imperial Fire & Casualty Insurance Company
Indiana Farmers Mutual Insurance Company FUNDING ASSOCIATIONS
Infinity Property & Casualty American Insurance Association
Kemper Corporation National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies
Kentucky Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Companies Property Casualty Insurers Association of America

This publication is printed on recycled paper.