🇵🇰🤝🇺🇸 Brief History of Pakistan–US Relations

🕰️1. 1947–1958: Early Alliance and Strategic Partnership

 1947: Pakistan recognized by the US; diplomatic ties established.

 1954–55: Pakistan joins SEATO and CENTO, becoming a Cold War ally.
 US provides military and economic aid to counter Soviet influence.

🗨️Pakistan becomes a "most allied ally of the United States" — Ayub Khan.

⚔️2. 1959–1971: Highs and Strategic Setbacks

 1959: US-Pakistan sign bilateral defense agreement.

 1965 & 1971 Wars: US suspends military aid to both India and Pakistan — Pakistan
feels betrayed.
 1971: US remains neutral during Bangladesh war; Pakistan hosts Kissinger’s secret trip
to China.

❄️3. 1972–1979: Cold Period and Nuclear Concerns

 US distances itself due to:

o Pakistan’s nuclear ambitions under Bhutto.
o Shift of US interests towards India post-Nixon.
 Aid and cooperation decline.

🏔️4. 1979–1989: Afghan Jihad and Strategic Convergence

 1979: Soviet invasion of Afghanistan → Pakistan becomes a frontline ally.

 US, via CIA–ISI nexus, arms Afghan Mujahideen.
 Massive military and economic aid flows in (Reagan era).

🗨️"We will fight the Soviet Empire from the mountains of Pakistan" — Zia-ul-Haq’s strategy.

💣 5. 1990–2001: Sanctions and Strategic Disconnect

  1990: Pressler Amendment leads to US sanctions over Pakistan’s nuclear program.
 Pakistan’s F-16 deal suspended.
 1998: Nuclear tests → further sanctions (Glenn Amendment).
 US ties drift toward India, especially after Pokhran-II.

🏛️6. 2001–2011: Post-9/11 Alliance and War on Terror

 2001: Pakistan becomes a "Major Non-NATO Ally" after 9/11.

 US provides $20+ billion aid (military & economic).
 Cooperation in counterterrorism, Al-Qaeda operations, and NATO supply routes.

🗨️“You are either with us or against us” — George W. Bush to Pakistan post-9/11.

 2011: Series of shocks:

o Raymond Davis incident (CIA operative)
o Abbottabad operation (Osama bin Laden killing)
o Salala attack (24 Pakistani soldiers killed by NATO)

These lead to deep mistrust and diplomatic fallout.

🔄 7. 2012–2020: Reset Attempts and Strategic Realignments

 2013–16: Limited reset under Obama and Nawaz Sharif; US appreciates Pakistan’s anti-
terror efforts.
 Trump Era:
o Accuses Pakistan of harboring "terrorists and lies."
o Cuts security aid in 2018.
o Imran Khan–Trump meeting (2019) leads to thaw and Afghan peace
coordination.

🌐 8. 2021–2024: Afghanistan Withdrawal and Strategic Drift

 2021: US exits Afghanistan; Pakistan blamed for “double game.”

 Ties cool due to:
o Pakistan’s closer ties with China (CPEC, military)
o US strategic pivot to India via QUAD & Indo-Pacific strategy.
 Biden administration maintains “transactional diplomacy.”
🔄 9. 2024–2025: Attempts at Strategic Realignment

 Pakistan offers mediation in Iran-Gulf tensions, welcomed by the US.

 New Pakistani government seeks re-engagement in trade, climate, counter-narcotics.
 Limited but growing collaboration on:
o Afghan humanitarian coordination
o Counter-extremism financing (FATF compliance)

Climate change dialogue and digital governance ✅

Points of Convergence between Pakistan and the United
States

🇦🇫 1. Stability in Afghanistan

 Shared interest in a stable, peaceful Afghanistan to prevent:

o Terrorism resurgence (e.g., ISIS-K, Al-Qaeda)
o Refugee spillover and drug trafficking
 US relies on Pakistan for intelligence, overflight access, and counter-terror
coordination post-withdrawal.

⚖️2. Counterterrorism Cooperation

 Long-standing cooperation in:

o Capturing Al-Qaeda operatives (e.g., Khalid Sheikh Muhammad)
o Joint military operations in FATA (e.g., Operation Zarb-e-Azb support)
 Ongoing coordination against TTP, ISIS-K, and regional terrorist financing
networks.

📈 3. Trade and Economic Engagement

 US is one of Pakistan’s top export markets:

o Over $6 billion in bilateral trade (2023).
o Key importer of Pakistani textiles, surgical goods, leather.
 US companies (PepsiCo, Procter & Gamble, etc.) operate in Pakistan.
🎓 4. Education and Cultural Exchange

 Thousands of Pakistani students study in the US.

 Major scholarship programs (e.g., Fulbright, USEFP).
 US supports university linkages, English language access, and civil society training.

💰 5. Development and Humanitarian Assistance

 US provided over $30 billion in aid since 2001 (military and civilian).
 Focus areas include:
o Education reforms
o Health (polio eradication)
o Climate resilience
o Disaster relief (e.g., 2005 earthquake, 2022 floods)

💡 6. Democratic Institutions and Civil Society

 US promotes:
o Electoral transparency (via USAID, IFES)
o Judicial training, rule of law, and anti-corruption reforms
 Common ground in governance capacity-building and media independence.

🧭 7. Strategic Regional Dialogue

 Bilateral engagement on:

o Nuclear stability and non-proliferation
o India–Pakistan deterrence
o China’s role in South Asia — Pakistan acts as a bridge and balancer.

🌍 8. Global Issues: Climate, Health, and Technology

 Increasing convergence on:

o Climate adaptation & green energy (US-Pak Climate Dialogue)
o Health sector modernization (post-COVID recovery, maternal care)
o Cybersecurity, digital governance, and tech education.
🕊️9. Religious Freedom and Countering Extremism

 Pakistan seeks US help in:

o Interfaith harmony programs
o Countering Islamophobia in the West.
 US supports Pakistan’s compliance with FATF and religious freedom metrics.

🌐 10. Multilateral Engagement

 Both cooperate in UN, FATF, WHO, IMF, and WTO.

 Coordination in peacekeeping, refugee management, and anti-narcotics programs.
 US supports Pakistan’s case for GSP+ and IMF stabilization under certain conditions.

📘 Sample Scholarly View

“The US and Pakistan have more in common as problem-solvers than they have as allies.”
— Daniel Markey, author of No Exit from Pakistan

⚔️Points of Divergence between Pakistan and the United

States

🔴 1. Afghanistan and the Taliban

 US accuses Pakistan of "double-dealing": supporting the Taliban while claiming

counterterrorism cooperation.
 Pakistan sees Taliban as a geopolitical reality and security buffer against India in
Afghanistan.
 US failure in Afghanistan often blamed partly on Pakistan, damaging trust.

🗨️"They are playing us." — Donald Trump on Pakistan’s role in Afghanistan (2018)

🔴 2. Strategic Alignment with China

  Pakistan is a key ally of China — especially via CPEC (China–Pakistan Economic
Corridor).
 US sees CPEC and Chinese military influence as a challenge to Indo-Pacific balance.
 Pakistan rejects US pressure to limit China ties, causing friction.

🔴 3. India–Pakistan Policy Imbalance

 US increasingly tilts toward India as a strategic partner (QUAD, Indo-Pacific).

 Pakistan views this as undermining South Asian balance.
 Lack of US mediation or pressure on India post-Article 370 abrogation (Kashmir)
angers Islamabad.

🔴 4. Drone Strikes and Sovereignty Violations

 US drone attacks in FATA (2004–2018) killed thousands, including civilians.

 Osama bin Laden raid (Abbottabad 2011) conducted without Pakistan’s knowledge.
 These incidents were seen as blatant violations of sovereignty.

🔴 5. Counterterrorism & FATF Compliance Pressure

 US often presses Pakistan to "do more" against groups like:

o Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)
o Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM)
o TTP remnants
 Pakistan claims selective targeting by the US and views FATF as a Western geopolitical
tool.

🔴 6. Nuclear Program and Non-Proliferation

 US has never accepted Pakistan as a legitimate nuclear power (like India in NSG).
 Pressler, Glenn, and Symington Amendments were used to sanction Pakistan post-nuclear
tests.
 US has concerns over nuclear safety and tactical weapon deployment.

🔴 7. Democracy, Human Rights, and Religious Freedom

  US often criticizes:
o Military interference in politics
o Media suppression
o Blasphemy laws
 Pakistan sees these as internal matters and Western hypocrisy when similar issues in
allies are ignored.

🔴 8. Dependence on Military-to-Military Engagement

 Relationship is heavily driven by military ties, not people-to-people or economic

frameworks.
 Trust deficits emerge when:
o Civilian governments are weak
o US bypasses diplomatic norms in favor of military lobbies

🔴 9. Perceived Conditionality in Aid

 US aid to Pakistan often comes with strict conditionality:

o Counterterrorism deliverables
o Monitoring clauses
 Pakistan resents being treated as a "hired gun" or "transactional ally".

🔴 10. Role in the Muslim World and Israel

 US supports Israel militarily and diplomatically, including against Gaza.

 Pakistan maintains no diplomatic ties with Israel and strongly supports Palestine.
 Pakistan also balances Iran–Saudi ties, while US sees Iran as a primary adversary.

📘 Sample Scholarly Quotation

“Pakistan and the US are caught in a cycle of instrumental friendship and inevitable
disappointment.”
— Stephen P. Cohen, South Asia expert at Brookings

✅ Recommendations for Pakistan to Improve Its Ties with

the United States
🧭 1. Redefine the Relationship Beyond Security

 Shift from a military-centric, transactional approach to a broad-based strategic

partnership.
 Focus on:
o Trade and investment
o Education and technology
o Climate and health cooperation

🗨️"Pakistan must move from alliance of convenience to partnership of convergence." — Dr.

Moeed Yusuf

📊 2. Deepen Economic and Trade Engagement

 Diversify exports and request GSP+ trade incentives from the US.
 Establish US–Pakistan Trade & Investment Council to:
o Encourage joint ventures
o Attract Silicon Valley tech into Pakistan’s startup ecosystem
 Engage US diaspora to boost remittance channels and investment confidence.

🌍 3. Position as a Bridge — Not a Pawn — in China–US Rivalry

 Maintain strategic neutrality while leveraging both relationships.

 Explain CPEC as an economic necessity, not a military alignment.
 Offer cooperation with the US on:
o Infrastructure transparency
o Digital governance
o Anti-monopoly regulation of Chinese firms (if needed)

⚖️4. Rebuild Strategic Trust Through Institutional Channels

 Resume High-Level Strategic Dialogue (last held in 2016).

 Build joint working groups on:
o Counterterrorism
o Afghan peace
o Climate finance
o Cybersecurity
🎓 5. Strengthen Educational, Technological, and Cultural Ties

 Request expansion of:

o Fulbright Scholarships
o University-to-university exchanges
 Create US–Pakistan STEM Innovation Fund to support:
o AI, biotech, renewable energy startups
 Launch Pak–US Media & Arts Fellowship to shape mutual perception positively.

✈️6. Ensure Transparent Counterterrorism Cooperation

 Share credible intelligence on:

o TTP hideouts in Afghanistan
o ISIS-K movements
 Offer support in border surveillance tech, extremism de-radicalization programs, and
narcotics control.

🔬 7. Engage on Climate, Health, and Women’s Empowerment

 Propose Green Partnership Plan (like US–India Climate Alliance).

 Collaborate on:
o Polio eradication
o Maternal health
o Food security
 Leverage US funding for women-led entrepreneurship in Pakistan.

🤝 8. Improve Public Diplomacy and Perception Management

 Counter anti-American narratives in Pakistani media with:

o Bilateral media initiatives
o Student exchanges
 Clarify Pakistan’s position on international issues (e.g., Israel, Ukraine) through official
channels, not media populism.

🕊️9. Avoid Overdependence on Military and Intelligence Interactions

  Civilian foreign ministry should lead policy coordination with the US.
 Minimize military-only diplomacy and promote parliamentary and institutional
dialogues.

🛂 10. Align with Global Norms (Democracy, Human Rights, FATF)

 Improve governance, judicial independence, and media freedom to reduce US

criticism.
 Sustain compliance with FATF grey-list conditions.
 Emphasize Pakistan's commitment to UN peacekeeping, non-proliferation, and
counter-extremism.

📘 Sample Scholarly Quotation

“Pakistan must act not as a dependent client but as a responsible partner in a globalized strategic
environment.”
— Husain Haqqani, former Pakistani Ambassador to the US

🔮 Future of Pakistan–US Bilateral Relations

🧭 1. From Alliance to Functional Engagement

 The era of strategic alliances is over; future ties will be pragmatic, interest-based, and
issue-specific.
 Transactional cooperation will continue on:
o Counterterrorism
o Climate change
o Digital economy
o Afghanistan stabilization

🗨️“Neither friend nor foe, Pakistan is a regional variable in US policy.” — Daniel Markey, CFR

⚖️2. Recalibrated Geostrategic Balance

 US will prioritize India as its South Asian strategic partner in Indo-Pacific.

 Pakistan may balance ties between China and the US, leveraging its:
o Geographic position
 o Afghan influence
o Nuclear status
 Washington may still engage Pakistan as a balancer and bridge in the region.

💰 3. Economic and Trade-Focused Future

 Pakistan will seek:

o Preferential market access (GSP)
o US support in IMF and World Bank forums
o Investment in tech and energy
 Future cooperation may shift from aid to:
o Joint ventures
o Diaspora investment
o Green financing

🛰️4. Digital and Climate Cooperation Will Grow

 Areas of convergence:
o Climate resilience
o Water management
o Disaster risk reduction
 Emerging fields:
o Cybersecurity
o AI-driven governance
o Digital literacy and fintech

🎓 5. Education and Human Capital Will Link the Two

 US will remain a top destination for Pakistani students.

 Expansion of:
o STEM education scholarships
o Civil society exchanges
o Tech incubator partnerships
 Promotes long-term soft power and elite-to-elite trust.

🚧 6. Mutual Distrust Will Linger

  Pakistan suspects US bias toward India and interventionist diplomacy.
 US doubts Pakistan’s sincerity on terrorism and worries about China’s influence.
 Full trust restoration unlikely unless major reforms are seen in Pakistan’s:
o Counter-extremism policy
o Civil-military balance
o Regional posture

🌍 7. Convergence on Afghanistan and Regional Stability

 US needs Pakistan's:
o Leverage over Taliban
o Access to intelligence
o Refugee coordination
 Pakistan needs:
o Humanitarian support for Afghans
o International legitimacy in Afghan mediation
 Future: Issue-based cooperation on Afghanistan and regional extremism.

🕊️8. US–Pakistan: From Crisis Ally to Stable Partner?

 Future relation will be:

o Less dramatic, more institutional
o Based on common problems, not shared ideology
o Relying on Track-II diplomacy, private sector, and academia more than the
military

📘 Sample Forecast Quotation

“The US–Pakistan relationship is no longer about loyalty, but about limited cooperation where
interests intersect.”
— Ashley Tellis, Carnegie Endowment

📈 Trade Potential Between Pakistan and the United States

🧾 1. Current Trade Snapshot (2023–24)

 Total bilateral trade: ≈ $10–12 billion annually

o Pakistan’s exports to US: ~$7 billion
o US exports to Pakistan: ~$3–4 billion
 US is Pakistan’s largest export destination, especially in:
o Textiles
o Leather
o Surgical goods
o Basmati rice

🎯 2. Realistic Potential: $20 Billion+

 With policy reforms, market access, and investment:

o Bilateral trade can easily reach $20 billion in the medium term.
o Services trade, digital goods, and green tech offer new growth areas.

📦 3. High-Potential Sectors for Pakistan

✅ A. Textile & Apparel Industry

 US imports ~$3.5 billion worth of Pakistani textiles annually.

 Expansion potential through:
o Sustainable garments
o Home textiles
o Technical fabrics
 Duty-free access (GSP) could unlock billions more.

✅ B. IT and Software Services

 US is the top client of Pakistan’s IT freelancers and startups.

 Potential in:
o AI, fintech, blockchain
o E-commerce outsourcing
 Pakistan’s IT exports to US can rise from ~$1.2B to $5B+ if policies improve.

✅ C. Surgical Instruments & Medical Devices

 Pakistan’s Sialkot-based firms supply high-quality surgical goods to US.

  US demand for affordable healthcare products is rising.
 Branding and FDA standard compliance can multiply export volumes.

✅ D. Sports Goods & Footwear

 Pakistan makes FIFA footballs, gloves, cycling gear.

 US demand for ethical, hand-crafted sportswear aligns with Pakistan’s strengths.

✅ E. Agriculture & Agro-Products

 Pakistan can export:

o Rice, mangoes, spices, halal meat
o Processed food
 Need to improve certifications and phytosanitary compliance for US entry.

🌱 4. Emerging Sectors for Bilateral Investment

 Renewable Energy: Wind, solar, biogas

 Climate Technology: Water recycling, carbon credits
 EdTech & HealthTech: Telemedicine, online education
 Logistics & Cold Chain: Especially for agriculture and pharma exports

🌐 5. Potential Areas for US Investment in Pakistan

 Infrastructure & Special Economic Zones (SEZs)

 Pharmaceutical joint ventures
 Silicon Valley–Pakistan tech accelerators
 Green financing under US Climate Agenda

🗨️“Pakistan offers a large untapped market for American firms if political risks are managed.” —
U.S. International Trade Administration

🚧 6. Major Barriers to Trade Expansion

Barrier Impact Solution

No Free Trade Agreement Negotiate preferential access or GSP

Limits export competitiveness
(FTA) renewal

Lack of US Investor Hinders FDI inflow Ensure policy stability and legal
 Barrier Impact Solution

Confidence protection

Compliance & Certification Improve FDA, ISO, WRAP, and ESG

Limits access to US retail chains
Gaps standards

Financial & Banking Limits services trade and Enable fintech and digital payment
Constraints remittances channels

Affects US public and corporate Use media diplomacy and diaspora

Anti-Pakistan Perception
outreach engagement

📊 7. Strategic Recommendations

 Sign a Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) with the US.

 Establish Pakistan–US Business Council.
 Fast-track GSP+ or Duty-Free Quotas for textiles and IT.
 Leverage Pakistani-American diaspora for startups and venture capital.
 Host a Pakistan–US Trade and Tech Summit annually.

📘 Sample Quotation

“Pakistan’s trade with the US is not limited by supply, but by strategy.”

— Shahid Javed Burki, Economist and former World Bank VP