UNIT 1: Climate Science Fundamentals & Regulatory

Framework
Instructor: Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

S. No. Topic Page

No.
1 (A) Understanding Fundamentals of Climate Science 2
A.1: Introduction to Climate Change, Global Warming
A.2: Main Indicators and Impacts of Global Warming
A.3: Greenhouse Effect and Greenhouse gases
A.4: Energy Balance, Climate forcings and Feedback Mechanism
A.5: Global Warming Potential
A.6: Keeling Curve - Correlating trends of CO2 emissions with
Global Warming. Relationship between Climate Change and
Weather.

1 (B) The International Response to Climate Change 17

B.1: Timeline of responses/actions undertaken to combat global
warming
B.2: IPCC - Introduction, Objective and Significance
B.3: Establishing UNFCCC - Revised response to Climate Change,
COP important timelines.
B.4: Kyoto Protocol - Why is it effective? Eligibility, Technicalities,
Mechanisms - JI, CDM, IET. List of Annex I countries.
Legacy of Kyoto Protocol

1 (C) Paris Agreement and Regulatory Framework 39

C.1: NDC
C.2: Regulatory Compliance
C.3: Trends

1 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

1(A): Understanding fundamentals of climate science
Climate science is the investigation of the structure and dynamics of earth’s climate system. It seeks
to understand how global, regional and local climates are maintained as well as the processes by
which they change over time. To establish concrete findings and conclusions, it employs
observations and theory from a variety of domains, including meteorology, oceanography, physics,
chemistry and more.

A.1 Introduction to Climate Change and Global Warming

Climate change refers to any significant change in measures of climate (such as temperature,
precipitation, wind speed, hurricanes, cyclones, etc.) lasting for an extended period (decades or
longer). Climate change may result from natural factors and processes or from human activities.

The phrase climate change represents a change in the long-term weather pattern and does not change
in a particular day. For example, it’s possible that a winter day in Jammu could be sunny and mild,
but the average weather (climate) tells us that winters in Jammu will be very cold.

Global Warming refers to an average increase in temperature of the atmosphere near the Earth’s
surface, which can contribute to changes in global climate patterns. However, rising temperatures
are just one aspect of climate change.

Earth has warmed at an unprecedented rate over the last hundred years and particularly in the last
two decades due to an upsurge in the anthropogenic activities that account for major chunk of
emissions.

A.2 Main Indicators and Impacts of Global Warming

As explained by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a US Agency, there

are 7 indicators that would be expected to increase in a warming world and 3 indicators that are
expected to decrease.

Indicators expected to show an increase:

1. Humidity: Humidity, as an indicator, is expected to rise because of global warming because

warmer air can hold more water vapor.

2. Tropospheric Temperature: Global average surface temperatures have consistently set

records, with the ten warmest years all occurring since 2015.

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 3. Ocean Heat Content: Upper ocean heat content is at its highest recorded levels, showing
significant energy accumulation in the planet's oceans.

4. Sea Level Rise: Global means sea levels continue to increase due to melting ice and the
thermal expansion of seawater.

5. Sea Surface Temperature: It is expected to rise as a direct consequence of global warming

because most of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases is absorbed by the world’s
oceans. Over 90% of the planet’s heat gain over recent decades has gone into the ocean,
causing temperatures to increase, particularly at the surface.

6. Temperature over land: Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere
are at all-time highs, leading to greater radiative forcing and Earth's energy imbalance.

7. Temperature over ocean: Temperatures over oceans are expected to rise rapidly due to the
ocean absorbing most of the excess heat caused by global warming. Satellite observations
and climate models confirm that ocean temperatures, especially at the surface, have
accelerated in warming over recent decades.

The indicators expected to decrease:

1. Decreased Sea Ice: Arctic sea ice extent is at or near record lows, especially notable in recent
January measurements.

2. Decreasing glaciers: These are sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation. In a

stable climate, glaciers maintain a balance between ice gained from snowfall and ice lost
through melting. As global temperatures rise, this balance tips towards increased melting and
retreat of glacier ice.

3. Snow Cover: Global warming causes higher temperatures, leading more precipitation to fall
as rain rather than snow and shortening snow-covered seasons, especially in mid-latitude and
mountain regions.

As mentioned in the “The State of the Climate Report 2024” published by World Meteorological
Organization (WMO), few other major indicators include:

1. Changes in Extreme Events: There is a rise in the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat
waves, as described by NOAA's annual heat wave index and event maps.
2. Earth’s Energy Imbalance: The planet is absorbing more energy than it emits back to space,
with the imbalance rising over the last few decades.
3. Precipitation Trends: Shifts in precipitation patterns, including more extreme rainfall and
drought events, are documented worldwide.

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A.3 Greenhouse Effect and Greenhouse Gases
The Sun powers Earth’s climate, radiating energy at very short wavelengths, predominately in the
visible or near visible (e.g., ultraviolet) part of the spectrum. Roughly one-third of the solar energy
that reaches the top of Earth’s atmosphere is reflected directly back to space. The remaining two-
thirds is absorbed by the surface and, to a lesser extent, by the atmosphere. To balance the absorbed
incoming energy, the Earth must, on average, radiate the same amount of energy back to space.
Because the Earth is much colder than the Sun, it radiates at much longer wavelengths, primarily in
the infrared part of the spectrum (see Figure 1). Much of this thermal radiation emitted by land and
ocean is absorbed by the atmosphere, including clouds, and reradiated back to Earth.

Fig.1. An idealized model of natural greenhouse gas effect (Adapted from IPCC AR4)

This is called the greenhouse effect. In other words, it is a naturally occurring phenomenon that
blankets the Earth’s lower atmosphere and warms it, maintaining a temperature suitable to sustain
life. Like that of a greenhouse where the glass walls in a greenhouse reduce air flow and increase
the temperature of the air inside.

Analogously, but through a different physical process, the Earth’s greenhouse effect warms the
surface of the planet. Without the natural greenhouse effect, the average temperature at Earth’s
surface would be below the freezing point of water. Thus, Earth’s natural greenhouse effect makes
life as we know it possible. However, human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels and
clearing of forests, have greatly intensified the natural greenhouse effect, causing global
warming.

Several components of the climate system, notably the oceans and living things, affect atmospheric
concentrations of greenhouse gases. A prime example of this is plants taking CO2 out of the
atmosphere and converting it (and water) into carbohydrates via photosynthesis. In the industrial era,

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human activities have added greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, primarily through the burning of
fossil fuels and clearing of forests resulting in “Enhanced greenhouse effect” which is responsible
for global warming.

1. Water Vapor
2. Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
3. Methane (CH4)
4. Ozone (O3)
5. Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
6. Industrial gases like CFCs, PFCs, HFCs, SF6

Levels of all GHGs (except for water vapor) is rising as a direct result of human activity. The level
of GHGs is determined by a balance between “sources” and “sinks”. Sources are processes that
generate GHGs and sinks that destroy or remove them. Humans are affecting the GHG levels by
introducing new sources or by interfering with natural sinks.

How do human activities contribute to climate change and how do they compare with natural
influence?

Human activities contribute to climate change by causing changes in Earth’s atmosphere in the
amounts of greenhouse gases, aerosols (small particles), and cloudiness. The largest known
contribution comes from the burning of fossil fuels, which releases carbon dioxide gas to the
atmosphere. Changing the atmospheric abundance or properties of these gases and particles can lead
to a warming or cooling of the climate system. Since the start of the industrial era (about 1750), the
overall effect of human activities on climate has been a warming influence. The human impact on
climate during this era greatly exceeds that due to known changes in natural processes, such as solar
changes and volcanic eruptions. The six major emissions: water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2),
methane (CH4), Ozone (O3), Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and industrial gases like CFCs, PFCs, HFCs, SF6
accumulate in the atmosphere, causing concentrations to increase with time. Significant increases in
all these gases have occurred in the industrial era (since 1750) as is evident from Figure 2.

Fig.2. Atmospheric concentrations of important long-lived greenhouse gases over the last 2,000
years.

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The figure shows that the concentration of GHGs has increased since about 1750 and are attributed
to human activities in the industrial era. Concentration units are parts per million (ppm) or parts per
billion (ppb), indicating the number of molecules of the greenhouse gas per million or billion air
molecules, respectively, in an atmospheric sample. (From IPCC Assessment Report 4, WG1)

1. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is currently responsible for over 60% of the “enhanced GHG
effect”. Its concentration in the atmosphere has increased from fossil fuel use in
transportation, building heating and cooling and the manufacture of cement and other goods.
Deforestation releases CO2 and reduces its uptake by plants. Carbon dioxide is also released
in natural processes such as the decay of plant matter.
2. Methane (CH4) contributes to about 20% of “enhanced GHG effect” and has increased
because of human activities related to agriculture, natural gas distribution and landfills.
Methane is also released from natural processes that occur, for example, in wetlands.
Methane concentrations are not currently increasing in the atmosphere because growth rates
decreased over the last two decades.
3. Nitrous Oxide (N2O) is also emitted by human activities such as fertilizer use and fossil fuel
burning. Natural processes in soils and the oceans also release N2O. This and the industrial
gases and O3 contribute the remaining 20% to “Enhanced GHG effect”.
4. Halocarbon gas concentrations have increased primarily due to human activities. Natural
processes are also a small source. Principal halocarbons include the chlorofluorocarbons
(e.g., CFC-11 and CFC-12), which were used extensively as refrigeration agents and in other
industrial processes before their presence in the atmosphere was found to cause stratospheric
ozone depletion. The abundance of chlorofluorocarbon gases is decreasing because of
international regulations designed to protect the ozone layer.
5. Ozone (O3) is a greenhouse gas that is continually produced and destroyed in the atmosphere
by chemical reactions. In the troposphere, human activities have increased ozone through the
release of gases such as carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxide, which
chemically react to produce ozone. As mentioned above, halocarbons released by human
activities destroy ozone in the stratosphere and have caused the ozone hole over Antarctica.
6. Water vapor is the most abundant and important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. However,
human activities have only a small direct influence on the amount of atmospheric water
vapor. Indirectly, humans have the potential to affect water vapor substantially by changing
climate. For example, a warmer atmosphere contains more water vapor. Human activities
also influence water vapor through CH4 emissions, because CH4 undergoes chemical
destruction in the stratosphere, producing a small amount of water vapor.

GREENHOUSE GASES AND AEROSOLS

A second important influence on climate is that of Aerosols. These clouds of microscopic particles
are not a GHG. In addition to various natural sources, they are produced from SO2 emitted from
power stations, and by smoke from deforestation and the burning of crop wastes.

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Natural aerosols include mineral dust released from the surface, sea salt aerosols, biogenic emissions
from the land and oceans and sulphate and dust aerosols produced by volcanic eruptions. Aerosols
are emitted in such massive quantities that they have a substantial impact on climate. Most aerosols
cool the climate locally by scattering sunlight back into space. Aerosols can also block sunlight
directly.

Over heavy industrialized regions, aerosol cooling may counteract nearly all the warming effects of
GHG increase. However, the atmospheric lifetime of aerosols is very short compared to that of
GHGs and thus we cannot rely on them to combat Global Warming.

A.4 Energy Balance, Climate forcing and Feedback Mechanism

The energy entering, reflected, absorbed, and emitted by the Earth system are the components of the
Earth's radiation balance. Based on the physics principle of conservation of energy, this radiation
budget represents the accounting of the balance between incoming radiation, which is almost entirely
solar radiation, and outgoing radiation, which is partly reflected in solar radiation and partly radiation
emitted from the Earth system, including the atmosphere. A budget that's out of balance can cause
the temperature of the atmosphere to increase or decrease and eventually affect our climate. The
units of energy employed in measuring this incoming and outgoing radiation are watts per square
meter (W/m2).

Fig.3. Natural Radiative Balance.

Source:(https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/EnergyBalance)

Determining exact values for energy flows in the Earth system is an area of ongoing climate research.
Different estimates exist, and all estimates have some uncertainty. Estimates come from satellite
observations, ground-based observations, and numerical weather models. The numbers in this article
rely most heavily on direct satellite observations of reflected sunlight and thermal infrared energy
radiated by the atmosphere and the surface.

Earth’s heat engine does more than simply move heat from one part of the surface to another; it also
moves heat from the Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere back to space. This flow of incoming

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and outgoing energy is Earth’s energy budget. For Earth’s temperature to be stable over long periods
of time, incoming energy and outgoing energy must be equal. In other words, the energy budget at
the top of the atmosphere must balance. This state of balance is called radiative equilibrium.

About 29 percent of the solar energy that arrives at the top of the atmosphere is reflected to space by
clouds, atmospheric particles, or bright ground surfaces like sea ice and snow. This energy plays no
role in Earth’s climate system. About 23 percent of incoming solar energy is absorbed in the
atmosphere by water vapor, dust, and ozone, and 48 percent passes through the atmosphere and is
absorbed by the surface. Thus, about 71 percent of the total incoming solar energy is absorbed by
the Earth system.

Of the 340 watts per square meter of solar energy that falls on the Earth, 29% is reflected into space,
primarily by clouds, but also by other bright surfaces and the atmosphere itself. About 23% of
incoming energy is absorbed in the atmosphere by atmospheric gases, dust, and other particles. The
remaining 48% is absorbed at the surface. (NASA illustration by Robert Simmon. Astronaut
photograph ISS013-E-8948.)

INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION

Incoming ultraviolet, visible, and a limited portion of infrared energy (together sometimes called
"shortwave radiation") from the Sun drives the Earth's climate system. Some of this incoming
radiation is reflected off clouds, some is absorbed by the atmosphere, and some passes through to
the Earth's surface. Larger aerosol particles in the atmosphere interact with and absorb some of the
radiation, causing the atmosphere to warm. The heat generated by this absorption is emitted as
longwave infrared radiation, some of which radiates out into space.

ABSORBED ENERGY

The solar radiation that passes through Earth's atmosphere is either reflected off snow, ice, or other
surfaces or is absorbed by the Earth's surface.

EMITTED LONGWAVE RADIATION

Heat resulting from the absorption of incoming shortwave radiation is emitted as longwave radiation.
Radiation from the warmed upper atmosphere, along with a small amount from the Earth's surface,
radiates out to space. Most of the emitted longwave radiation warms the lower atmosphere, which
in turn warms our planet's surface.

GOVERNING LAWS OF RADIATION

The principal laws governing radiation are the Stefan-Boltzmann Law, Wien's Displacement Law,
Planck's Law, and Kirchhoff's Law, each addressing different aspects of how objects emit, absorb,
and distribute thermal radiation based on temperature and wavelength.

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Stefan-Boltzmann Law

The total energy radiated per unit surface area of a blackbody per unit time is proportional to the
fourth power of its absolute temperature (T):

E = σT4
where σ is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant (5.67×10−8W/m2K4), and E is the radiant exitance.

In the context of the Earth, the Stefan-Boltzmann law explains how the planet emits infrared
radiation back into space. Earth's surface and atmosphere absorb solar energy and then emit
longwave infrared radiation. The amount of this outgoing radiation depends strongly on Earth's
temperature raised to the fourth power, which stabilizes Earth's temperature by balancing incoming
solar radiation with outgoing terrestrial radiation.

When Earth's surface temperature rises, the Stefan-Boltzmann law dictates that Earth emits
significantly more energy, acting as a negative feedback mechanism that prevents runaway heating.
Similarly, if the surface cools, energy emission decreases. This relationship is crucial for
understanding radiative equilibrium, the greenhouse effect, and climate feedback that regulates
Earth's temperature. Thus, the Stefan-Boltzmann law is essential for quantifying the energy balance
that controls Earth’s climate stability.

Wien’s Displacement Law

The wavelength of peak emission for a blackbody is inversely proportional to its temperature:

λmaxT = b
where λmax is the peak wavelength, T the temperature in Kelvin, and b Wien's constant
(2.897×10−3m.K).

This means that hotter objects emit radiation at shorter wavelengths, while cooler objects emit
radiation at longer wavelengths. For Earth, which has a much cooler surface temperature (~288 K)
compared to the Sun (~6000 K), Wien's law explains why Earth primarily emits thermal radiation in
the infrared spectrum, whereas the Sun emits mostly visible light and shorter wavelength radiation.
This distinction is critical in Earth's energy balance because Earth's emitted infrared radiation
interacts with atmospheric greenhouse gases that absorb specific infrared wavelengths, affecting the
greenhouse effect and climate regulation. Meanwhile, solar radiation passes mostly through the
atmosphere due to its shorter wavelengths. Thus, Wien's Displacement Law helps clarify why
incoming solar radiation and outgoing terrestrial radiation occur at different wavelengths, shaping
Earth's radiative processes and energy balance.

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Planck’s Law

Describes the intensity of radiation emitted by a blackbody at a given wavelength as a function of

temperature:

I(λ,T) = 2hc2
λ5.ehc/λkT−1
where I(λ,T) is the intensity at wavelength λ, h Planck's constant, c speed of light, k Boltzmann's
constant, and T temperature.

Regarding Earth’s radiative balance, Planck’s Law explains the spectral nature of Earth's thermal
infrared emission. Earth's surface, with an average temperature of about 288 K, emits radiation
mainly in the infrared range with a specific spectral distribution. This radiation interacts with
atmospheric gases that absorb and re-emit energy at wavelengths, influencing the greenhouse effect
and the overall climate system.

Thus, Planck's Law provides the fundamental framework for modelling how Earth emits energy
back to space at different wavelengths, revealing the physical basis for the planet's energy exchanges
and climate dynamics.

CLIMATE FORCINGS

Climate forcing refers to an external factor or process that alters the Earth's energy balance by
changing the amount of incoming or outgoing energy in the climate system. This imbalance drives
changes in global temperatures and climate patterns.

● Climate forcing is the change in the net downward minus upward radiative flux (measured
in watts per square meter, W/m²) at the top of the atmosphere caused by an external driver
of climate change.
● External drivers can be natural (e.g., variations in solar radiation, volcanic eruptions) or
anthropogenic (human-caused, such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use changes).

How Climate Forcing Works?

If a forcing causes more energy to enter the Earth system than leaves, it is a positive forcing, leading
to warming.

If it causes more energy to leave the Earth than enter, it is a negative forcing, causing cooling.

Examples include increased CO₂ concentrations (positive forcing) and aerosols that reflect sunlight
(negative forcing).

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Climate forcing is fundamental to understanding how and why the climate changes over time.

● The magnitude of forcing influences the rate and extent of global warming or cooling.
● It sets the stage for climate feedback mechanisms that further amplify or mitigate the effects.
● In short, climate forcing is the initial push or driver that causes the Earth's climate to change
by altering the balance of energy entering and leaving the planet.

Initial drivers of Forcing:

1. Solar Irradiance. Solar irradiance is the change in solar radiation (sunlight) Earth receives
from the Sun. Scientists also use evidence from proxy measurements, such as sunspot counts
going back centuries and ancient tree rings, to indirectly measure the amount of Sun that
reaches Earth’s surface. The Sun has an 11-year sunspot cycle, which causes a very small
variation in the Sun’s output reaching Earth.1 The solar cycle is incorporated into climate
models.
2. Greenhouse gas emissions. Since the Industrial Revolution, concentrations of greenhouse
gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) have risen in
the atmosphere. Burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and gas has increased the concentration
of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) from 280 parts per million to 416 parts per million.2
These greenhouse gases absorb and then re-radiate heat in Earth’s atmosphere, which causes
increased surface warming.
3. Aerosols, dust, smoke, and soot. Very small airborne particles come from both human and
natural sources and have various effects on climate. Sulfate aerosols, which result from
burning coal, biomass, and volcanic eruptions, tend to cool Earth. Other kinds of particles,
such as black carbon, have a warming effect. The net effect of aerosols, dust, smoke, and
soot is cooling.

4. Fig: Climate Forcing between 1750 - 2005 (Source: IPCC AR4, WG1)

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 The above figure describes the principal components of the radiative forcing of climate change.
All these radiative forcing results from one or more factors that affect climate and are associated
with human activities or natural processes as discussed in the text. The values represent the
forcings in 2005 relative to the start of the industrial era (about 1750). Human activities cause
significant changes in long-lived gases, ozone, water vapour, surface albedo, aerosols and
contrails. The only increase in natural forcing of any significance between 1750 and 2005
occurred in solar irradiance. Positive forces lead to warming of climate and negative forces lead
to cooling. The thin black line attached to each coloured bar represents the range of uncertainty
for the respective value.

FEEDBACK MECHANISM

Feedback mechanisms can either amplify or reduce the effects of climate forcings. Feedback that
increases an initial warming is called “positive feedback” whereas feedback that reduces an initial
warming is “negative feedback”.

1. Clouds. Clouds have an enormous impact on Earth's climate, reflecting about one-third
of the total amount of sunlight that hits Earth's atmosphere back into space. Even small
changes in cloud amount, location, and type could have large consequences. A warmer
climate causes more water to be held in the atmosphere, leading to an increase in
cloudiness and altering the amount of sunlight that reaches Earth's surface. Less heat
could get absorbed, which could slow the increased warming. Conversely, changes in
cloud cover could lead to faster and greater warming. This is an area of ongoing research.
2. Precipitation. Global climate models show that precipitation will generally increase due
to the increased amount of water held in a warmer atmosphere. Some regions may dry
out instead. Changes in precipitation patterns may present both positive and negative
changes in plant growth.
3. Forest greening and browning. Natural processes, such as tree growth, remove about
half of human carbon dioxide emissions from the atmosphere every year. Scientists are
currently studying where this carbon dioxide goes. The delicate balance between the
absorption and release of carbon dioxide by the ocean and the world’s great forested
regions is the subject of research by many scientists. There is some evidence that the
ability of the ocean or forests to continue absorbing carbon dioxide may decline as the
world warms, leading to faster accumulation in the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide uptake
by plants is unable to offset emissions from human activities.
4. Ice albedo. Ice is white and very reflective, in contrast to the ocean surface, which is dark
and absorbs heat faster. As the atmosphere warms and sea ice melts, the darker ocean
absorbs more heat, causes more ice to melt, and makes Earth warmer overall. The ice-
albedo feedback is very strong positive feedback.
5. Water vapor. The most abundant greenhouse gas, it acts as feedback to amplify climate
warming forcings. Water vapor increases as Earth's atmosphere warms, making it an
important feedback mechanism to the greenhouse effect.

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However, Feedback mechanisms, such as those involving clouds and other aspects, are subject to
situational variables, meaning their effects can shift between positive feedback (amplifying
warming) and negative feedback (dampening warming) depending on specific conditions.

Examples:

Clouds influence Earth's energy balance by reflecting incoming solar radiation (cooling effect) and
trapping outgoing infrared radiation (warming effect). The net impact depends on the cloud type,
altitude, location, and optical properties.
 Low-altitude clouds (e.g., stratocumulus) tend to have a cooling effect since they reflect a lot
of sunlight back to space, making them potential negative feedback.
 High-altitude clouds (e.g., cirrus) tend to let sunlight through but trap infrared radiation, thus
causing warming and acting as positive feedback.
 In a warmer climate, if low cloud cover decreases, less solar radiation is reflected away,
amplifying warming (positive feedback). If warming causes an increase in low clouds or
thicker clouds that reflect more sunlight, it can offset warming (negative feedback).
 High clouds rising to higher altitudes get colder and trap more heat, enhancing warming
(positive feedback). Changes in tropical versus polar cloud behaviour also differ, with
tropical low clouds reducing (positive feedback) and polar low clouds becoming more
reflective (negative feedback).
Similarly, several climate feedback mechanisms can act in both positive and negative ways
depending on the situation, like clouds.
Water Vapor Feedback

 Positive: As the atmosphere warms, it can hold more water vapor, which is a potent
greenhouse gas—this amplifies warming.
 Negative: Increased water vapor can also lead to more cloud formation, which may reflect
sunlight and cool the Earth under certain conditions.

Ice-Albedo Feedback
 Positive: Melting ice reduces Earth's reflectivity (albedo), causing more solar absorption and
further warming.
 Negative: In some cases, increased snowfall in specific regions could increase surface
reflectivity temporarily, providing a cooling effect, though this is less common.

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Carbon Cycle Feedback
 Positive: Higher temperatures can reduce carbon uptake by oceans and forests or increase
carbon release from soils, amplifying atmospheric CO₂ and warming.
 Negative: CO₂ fertilization can stimulate plant growth, increasing carbon uptake and partially
offsetting emissions (though this effect may diminish over time).
Ocean Feedback
 Positive: Warming oceans hold less CO₂, increasing atmospheric CO₂ and warming.
 Negative: Ocean circulation changes can enhance nutrient availability, promoting
phytoplankton growth, which absorbs CO₂.
Vegetation Feedback
 Positive: Drought and heat stress can reduce vegetation, diminish carbon uptake and
increasing atmospheric CO₂.
 Negative: Longer growing seasons or CO₂ fertilization may enhance vegetation growth and
carbon sequestration, helping to mitigate warming.

Fig.4. Feedback mechanism schematic

A.5 Global Warming Potential

Total greenhouse gas emissions (CO2e) are calculated by multiplying emissions of each greenhouse
gas by its Global Warming Potential (GWPs), a measure used to compare how much heat a
greenhouse gas traps in the atmosphere over a specific period, relative to carbon dioxide, which is
assigned a GWP of 1. It reflects both the gas’ ability to absorb infrared radiation and how long it

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persists in the atmosphere. For example, methane has a higher GWP than carbon dioxide because it
is more effective at trapping heat, although it remains in the atmosphere for a shorter period.
The GWP value provides a simplified way to compare the climate effects of different gases. For
instance, over a 100-year period, methane (CH₄) has a GWP of about 28, nitrous oxide (N₂O) is
around 265, and some industrial gases like sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆) can have a GWP as high as
23,500. These values mean that, ton for ton, methane causes 28 times more warming than CO₂,
nitrous oxide 265 times more, and SF₆ tens of thousands of times more. The concept helps scientists
and policymakers estimate the total warming impact of emissions by converting them into “CO₂-
equivalent” amounts.

Fig.5. Global warming potential of earth.

A.6 Keeling Curve - correlating trends of CO2 emissions with Global Warming
The rise of CO2 gas in our atmosphere has been measured continuously since 1958 and follows an
oscillating line known as the "Keeling Curve," named after Dr. Charles David Keeling, professor at
Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Prof. Keeling was the first to measure carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere. He demonstrated its annual fluctuations (the little squiggles in the curve) and was the
first to report that global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide were rising.
The Keeling Curve is a graph that represents the progressive, long-term increase in atmospheric
carbon dioxide (CO₂) measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii beginning in 1958, by
Professor Charles David Keeling. This curve was one of the first scientific pieces of evidence
showing that atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are steadily rising due to human activities, especially
the burning of fossil fuels. The graph also highlights seasonal fluctuations: CO₂ levels rise in winter
(when photosynthesis slows in the Northern Hemisphere) and fall in spring and summer as plants
take in more CO₂, visually depicting Earth's "breathing".
To demonstrate this, Prof. Keeling designed extremely precise infrared gas analyzers. He selected
Mauna Loa for its remote location—far from urban pollution and vegetation—to ensure that
measurements reflected global rather than local conditions. Keeling’s team collected daily air
samples above the temperature inversion layer using these analyzers, allowing them to track even

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small changes. Data was charted continuously, forming the iconic curve whose upward trend now
defines the modern understanding of anthropogenic climate change.
A typical diagram of the Keeling Curve displays time (years) on the x-axis and atmospheric CO₂
concentration (ppm) on the y-axis. The curve rises steadily from about 315 ppm in 1958 to over 420
ppm in recent decades, with small annual oscillations reflecting seasonal changes in carbon uptake
by plants.

Fig.6. Keeling curve

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND WEATHER

Climate means the average weather over a long time, usually 30 years or more, while weather is the
daily condition of the atmosphere like sun, rain, or temperature. Climate change is about long-term
shifts in these average weather patterns. A common confusion is why scientists can predict climate
50 years ahead but not weather for weeks because weather is very chaotic and unpredictable beyond
a few days. This is known as the butterfly effect which explains why weather is so unpredictable
because tiny changes, like a butterfly flapping its wings, can lead to big differences in the weather
later. This idea comes from chaos theory, showing how small actions can cause big results in
complex systems like the atmosphere. On the other hand, climate prediction looks at long-term
averages and changes caused by things like rising greenhouse gases, which is more predictable.

Sometimes people think a cold winter means global warming is not happening, but weather has
natural ups and downs. When you look at weather data across the whole Earth and over many years,
it clearly shows the planet is getting warmer.

16 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

1(B): International Response to Climate Change

Stabilizing atmospheric concentration of GHGs would demand a major effort. Without emission
control policies, atmospheric concentration of CO2 is expected to rise at an alarming rate (about 75
– 350 % rise since 1750 levels). Stabilizing concentration at 450 ppm would require world-wide
emissions to fall below 1990 levels within the next few decades.

B.1 Timeline of responses/actions undertaken to combat global warming

Given an expanding global economy and growing population, this would require dramatic
improvements in energy efficiency and fundamental changes in other sectors. The international
community is tackling this change through the climate change convention. The following paragraphs
give a timeline of the various international events carried out in order to arrive at a global mechanism
to combat global warming:

● The First World Climate Conference recognized climate change as a serious problem in
1979. This scientific gathering explored how climate change might affect human activities.
It issued a declaration calling on the world’s governments to foresee and prevent potential
man-made changes in climate that might be harmful to the well- being of humanity. It also
endorsed plans to establish a World Climate Programme (WCP) under the joint responsibility
of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP), and the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU).
● Several intergovernmental conferences focusing on climate change were held in the late
1980s and early 1990s. Together with increasing scientific evidence, these conferences
helped to raise international concern about the issue. Participants included government
policymakers, scientists, and environmentalists. The meetings addressed both scientific and
policy issues and called for global action. The key events were the Villach Conference
(October 1985), the Toronto Conference (June 1988), the Ottawa Conference (February
1989), the Tata Conference (February 1989), the Hague Conference and Declaration (March
1989), the Noordwijk Ministerial Conference (November 1989), the Cairo Compact
(December 1989), the Bergen Conference (May 1990), and the Second World Climate
Conference (November 1990).

17 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

B.2 IPCC - Introduction, Objective and Significance

The above timeline continues and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was
established in 1988 by UNEP and WMO. The Panel was given a mandate to assess the state of
existing knowledge about the climate system and climate change; the environmental, economic, and
social impacts of climate change; and the possible response strategies. IPCC released its First
Assessment Report in 1990. Approved after a painstaking peer review process, the Report confirmed
the scientific evidence for climate change. This had a powerful effect on both policymakers and the
public and provided the basis for negotiations on the Climate Change Convention.

IPCC Roles & Responsibilities:

● It is open to all the members of the countries of the UN and currently 195 nations are a
member of it, the Secretariat coordinates all the IPCC work and liaises with the governments.
The initial task for IPCC was to prepare a comprehensive review and recommendations with
respect to the state of knowledge of the science of climate change, social and economic
impacts, and possible response strategies and elements for inclusion in a possible future
international convention on climate.
● Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete
assessment of current information. Governments participate in the review process and
planning sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC work programme are taken and
reports are accepted, adopted, and approved.
● The IPCC has delivered on a regular basis the most comprehensive scientific reports about
climate change, via the assessment reports.
● It has also produced methodologies and guidelines to help parties to the UNFCCC prepare
their national greenhouse gas inventories.

Assessment Reports

In accordance with its mandate and as reaffirmed in various decisions by the panel, the IPCC
prepares comprehensive assessment reports at regular intervals.

18 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

They are typically published in several volumes; they are generally written in a non-technical manner
for policymakers.

● The First Assessment Report (AR1) was published in 1990.

● The IPCC finalized its Second Assessment Report in December 1995. Published in time for
COP-2, the Second Assessment Report was written and reviewed by some 2,000 scientists
and experts worldwide. It was soon widely known for concluding that the balance of
evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate. IPCC’s AR
– 2 also included cost-effective strategies for combating climate change.
● Third Assessment Report (AR3) in early 2001. The Report concluded that the evidence for
humanity’s influence on the global climate is now stronger than ever before, and it presented
the most detailed picture to date of how global warming will affect various regions. It also
confirmed that many cost-effective solutions to rising greenhouse gas emissions are available
today; in many cases, however, governments will need to address various institutional,
behavioral and other barriers before these solutions can realize their potential.
● Consequently, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007, the Fifth Assessment Report
(AR5) arrived in 2014, and the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) was completed in 2023.

AR5 highlights:

As compared to the previous reports, the AR5 has put greater emphasis on assessing the socio-
economic aspects of climate change and implications for sustainable development, risk management
and framing of a response through adaptation and mitigation. The main themes were:

● Water and the Earth System: Changes, Impact and Responses.

● Carbon cycles include oceanic acidification.
● Ice sheets and sea level rise.
● Mitigation, Adaptation, and Sustainable Development
● Article 2 of UNFCCC - that specifies the ultimate objective of the Convention: the
stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic (human-caused) interference with the climate system.

19 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

AR6 highlights:

The key themes of IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) are the urgent need for immediate, deep
reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the escalating and widespread impacts of climate change,
and a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a livable, sustainable future for all.

● Accelerating Climate Change and Rising Risks - Climate impacts—more severe and frequent
than expected—are affecting all continents, with developing countries suffering the worst
consequences and heightened vulnerability
● Adaptation, Mitigation, and Equity - Both adaptation and mitigation actions have substantial
co-benefits, including advancing sustainable development.
● Roadmap for Solutions - Stronger international cooperation enables ambitious climate action
and supports vulnerable nations through finance and technology transfer

B.3 Establishing UNFCCC - A revised response to Climate Change

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Convention is the foundation of global
efforts to combat global warming. Opened for signature in 1992 at the Rio Earth Summit, its ultimate
objective is the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would
prevent dangerous anthropogenic [human-induced] interference with the climate system. Such a
level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to
climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development
to proceed in a sustainable manner.

The Convention sets out some guiding principles. The precautionary principle says that the lack of
full scientific certainty should not be used as an excuse to postpone action when there is a threat of
serious or irreversible damage. The principle of the common but differentiated responsibilities of
states assigns the lead in combating climate change to developed countries. Other principles deal
with the special needs of developing countries and the importance of promoting sustainable
development.

Both developed and developing countries accept several general commitments. All Parties will
develop and submit national communications containing inventories of greenhouse gas emissions
by source and greenhouse gas removals by sinks. They will adopt national programmes for

20 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

mitigating climate change and develop strategies for adapting to its impacts. They will also promote
technology transfer and sustainable management, conservation, and enhancement of greenhouse gas
sinks and reservoirs. (such as forests and oceans). In addition, the Parties will take climate change
into account in their relevant social, economic, and environmental policies; cooperate in scientific,
technical, and educational matters; and promote education, public awareness, and the exchange of
information related to climate change.

Industrialized countries undertake several specific commitments. Most members of the Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) plus the states of Central and Eastern Europe
known collectively as Annex I countries committed themselves to adopting policies and measures
aimed at returning their greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000 (emissions targets
for the post-2000 period are addressed by the Kyoto Protocol). They must also submit national
communications on a regular basis detailing their climate change strategies. Several states may
together adopt a joint emissions target. The countries in transition to a market economy are granted
a certain degree of flexibility in implementing their commitments.

The richest countries should provide new and additional financial resources and facilitate technology
transfer. These so-called Annex II countries (essentially the OECD) will fund the agreed full cost
incurred by developing countries for submitting their national communications. These funds must
be new and additional rather than redirected from existing development aid funds. Annex II Parties
will also help finance certain other Convention-related projects, and they will promote and finance
the transfer of, or access to, environmentally sound technologies, particularly for developing country
Parties. The Convention recognizes that the extent to which developing country Parties implement
their commitments will depend on financial and technical assistance from the developed countries.

UNFCCC Important timeline:

● In December 1990, the UN General Assembly approved the start of treaty negotiations. The
Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Framework Convention on Climate Change
(INC/FCCC) met for five sessions between February 1991 and May 1992. Facing a strict
deadline - the June 1992 Rio “Earth Summit” - negotiators from 150 countries finalized the
Convention in just 15 months. It was adopted in New York on 9 May 1992.

21 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

 ● The 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change was signed by 154 states at Rio
de Janeiro. Twenty years after the 1972 Stockholm Declaration first laid the foundations of
contemporary environmental policy, the Earth Summit became the largest-ever gathering of
Heads of State. Other agreements adopted at Rio were the Rio Declaration, Agenda 21, the
Convention on Biological Diversity, and Forest Principles.
● The Convention entered into force on 21 March 1994. This was 90 days after the receipt of
the 50th instrument of ratification (after signing a convention a government must then ratify).
The supreme body of the Convention is the Conference of the Parties (COP). The COP
comprises all the states that have ratified or acceded to the Convention (185 as of July 2001).
It held its first meeting (COP-1) in Berlin in 1995 and will continue to meet on a yearly basis
unless the Parties decide otherwise. The COP’s role is to promote and review the
implementation of the Convention. It will periodically review existing commitments in light
of the Convention’s objective, new scientific findings, and the effectiveness of national
climate change programmes. The COP can adopt new commitments through amendments
and protocols to the Convention; in December 1997 it adopted the Kyoto Protocol containing
binding emissions targets for developed countries.

COP - Important timelines:

● COP-1 in Berlin from 28 March - 7 April 1995. Delegates from 117 Parties and 53
Observer States participated in COP-1, as did over 2,000 observers and journalists. They
agreed that the commitments contained in the Convention for developed countries were
inadequate and launched the Berlin Mandate talks on additional commitments. They also
reviewed the first round of national communications and finalized much of the institutional
and financial machinery needed to support action under the Convention in the years to come.
● COP-2 was held at Geneva from 8 - 19 June 1996.
● COP-3 was held in December 1997. Some 10,000 delegates, observers, and journalists
participated in this high-profile event from 1 - 11 December. Because there was not enough
time to finalize all the operational details of how the Protocol would work in practice.
● COP-4, held in Buenos Aires from 2-13 November 1998, agreed to a two-year Plan of Action
for completing the Kyoto rulebook.
● The agenda of COP-5, which took place in Bonn from 15 October - 5 November 1999 was
based on this two-year plan of action for completing the Kyoto rulebook.

22 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

 ● At the COP-6 meeting from 6 to 25 November 2000, COP-6 made good progress but could
not resolve all the issues in the time available. The meeting was suspended and then resumed
from 16 to 27 July 2001 in Bonn. The resumed session reached a political agreement on the
operational rulebook for the Kyoto Protocol. This agreement addressed the emissions trading
system, the Clean Development Mechanism, the rules for counting emissions reductions
from carbon sinks, and the compliance regime. It also outlined a package of financial and
technological support to help developing countries contribute to global action on climate
change. Delegates were also able to start the process of translating the political agreement
into detailed legal texts. Many of these decision texts were completed for adoption at the next
COP.
● COP-7, which will be held in Marrakech, Morocco, from 29 October to 9 November 2001,
is to finalize the remaining decisions.

● COP 28-Took place in UAE, Dubai. It focused on unprecedented recognition and

momentum for linking efforts to address climate and biodiversity crises, emphasis on the
Global Stocktake to keep the temperature rise within 1.5°C, calling for tripling renewable
energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030.Focus on transitioning away from
fossil fuels in a just and equitable manner aiming for net zero by 2050. It called for doubling
adaptation finance with targets for water security, ecosystem restoration, and health by 2030.
Climate technology played a central role with climate tech hubs and startups. Over $57
billion mobilized in the first four days of COP 28. Operationalization of the Loss and Damage
Fund with over $680 million pledged. A goal to triple global renewable energy capacity to
11,000 GW by 2030.Controversy over fossil fuel presence and lobbyists at COP 28. A
dedicated day on food systems' role in climate change.
● COP 29- Adoption of the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) to triple climate finance
for developing countries to $300 billion per year by 2035 (from the previous goal of $100
billion). This is called for scaling up overall climate financing to $1.3 trillion annually by
2035 from all public and private sources. Landmark agreement finalizing carbon market
mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, enabling bilateral carbon credit trading
and a UN-managed centralized carbon market. The declaration on reducing methane
emissions from organic waste endorsed by over 30 countries. Baku Adaptation Roadmap to
enhance global resilience and support to National Adaptation Plans, focusing on vulnerable

23 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

 regions. It enhanced the Transparency Framework concluded to ensure transparent reporting
on emissions and mitigation efforts. Global Climate Transparency Platform and Baku
Declaration for improving climate reporting launched. Renewed Lima Work Programme on
Gender for 10 more years promoting gender equality in climate action. Emphasised
inclusivity with indigenous peoples and local communities' knowledge integrated into
policies.

B.4 Kyoto Protocol

By 1995, the countries realized that emission reduction provisions in the convention were
inadequate. They launched negotiations to strengthen the global response and two years later, the
Kyoto Protocol was adopted.

The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will
strengthen the international response to climate change. Adopted by consensus at the third session
of the Conference of the Parties (COP-3) in December 1997, it contains legally binding emissions
targets for Annex I (industrialized) countries. By arresting and reversing the upward trend in
greenhouse gas emissions that started in these countries 150 years ago, the Protocol promises to
move the international community one step closer to achieving the convention’s ultimate objective
of preventing dangerous anthropogenic [manmade] interference with the climate system.

● The developed countries are to reduce their collective emissions of six key greenhouse
gases by at least 5%. The six gases are to be combined in a basket, with reductions in
individual gases translated into CO2 equivalents. that are then added up to produce a single
figure.
● Each country’s emissions target must be achieved by the period 2008 - 2012. It will be
calculated as an average over the five years. Cuts in the three most important gases carbon
dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) will be measured against the base
year of 1990 (with exceptions for some countries with economies in transition). Cuts in three
long-lived industrial gases - hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and
sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) can be measured against either a 1990 or 1995 baseline. (A major
group of industrial gases, chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, are dealt with under the 1987
Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer.)

24 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

 ● Countries will have some flexibility in how they make and measure their emissions
reductions. International emissions trading. A regime will be established allowing
industrialized countries to buy and sell emissions credits amongst themselves. They will also
be able to acquire emission reduction units. by financing certain kinds of projects in other
developed countries. In addition, a clean development mechanism. Promoting sustainable
development will enable industrialized countries to finance emissions-reduction projects in
developing countries and to receive credit for doing so. The use of these three mechanisms
is to be supplemental to domestic action.
● They will pursue emissions cuts in a wide range of economic sectors. The Protocol
encourages governments to cooperate with one another, improve energy efficiency, reform
the energy and transportation sectors, promote renewable forms of energy, phase out
inappropriate fiscal measures and market imperfections, limit methane emissions from waste
management and energy systems, and manage carbon sinks. such as forests, croplands and
grazing lands. The methodologies for measuring changes in net emissions (calculated as
emissions minus removals of CO2) due to the use of sinks are particularly complex.
● The Protocol will advance the implementation of existing commitments by all countries.
Under the Convention, both developed and developing countries agree to take measures to
limit emissions and promote adaptation to future climate change impacts; submit information
on their national climate change programmes and inventories; promote technology transfer;
cooperate on scientific and technical research; and promote public awareness, education, and
training. The Protocol also reiterates the need to provide new and additional financial
resources to meet the agreed full costs. incurred by developing countries in carrying out these
commitments; a Kyoto Protocol Adaptation Fund was established in 2001.
● The new agreement will be periodically reviewed. The Parties will take appropriate
action. Based on the best available scientific, technical, and socio- economic information.
The first review will take place at the second COP session serving the Protocol. Talks on
commitments for the post- 2012 period must start by 2005.
● The Protocol was opened for signature for one year starting 16 March 1998. It will enter
into force 90 days after it has been ratified by at least 55 Parties to the Convention,
including developed countries representing at least 55% of the total 1990 carbon
dioxide emissions from this group. Political disagreements in late 2000 and 2001 over how

25 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

 to implement the Protocol have slowed down the rate of ratification. In the meantime,
governments will continue to carry out their commitments under the Climate Change
Convention. They will also work on many practical issues relating to the Protocol and its
future implementation at their regular COP and subsidiary body meetings.

What made the Kyoto Protocol effective?

The Kyoto Protocol is made up of essential architecture that has been built and shaped over two
decades. The key essence that enhances the effectiveness of KP is:

● Reporting and verification procedures.

● Flexible market-based mechanisms, which in turn have their own governance procedures.
● Compliance system.

Mechanisms of Kyoto Protocol:

The Kyoto Protocol establishes legally binding, quantified emissions reduction targets for Annex I
Parties—countries listed in Annex I of the UNFCCC, which include developed nations and
“Economies in Transition” like Russia and Eastern Europe. These targets are specified in Article 3,
paragraph 1 of the Protocol, requiring Annex I Parties to collectively reduce greenhouse gas
emissions below 1990 levels within a designated period.

Annex I Parties are industrialized nations and countries with economies in transition (EITs), such as
the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and several Central and Eastern European states.

They are distinguished from developing countries (Non-Annex I), which do not have binding
emissions reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. Example: Indonesia, Egypt, India, etc.

Annex I Parties must provide information in their “national communications” under the Protocol to
demonstrate that their use of the mechanisms is “supplemental to domestic action” to achieve their
targets.

Entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol: The Kyoto Protocol shall enter into force on the 90th day
after the date on which not less than 55 Parties to the UNFCCC, incorporating Annex I Parties which
accounted in total for at least 55% of the total CO2 emissions for 1990 of the Annex I Parties, have
deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession.[KPArt.25para1]

26 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

 ● Currently, 190 countries and one regional economic integration organization (the EEC) have
deposited instruments of ratifications, accessions, approvals or acceptances.
● 63.7% of the total CO2 emissions for 1990 of the Annex I Parties have ratified the Protocol.
The Protocol entered into force on 16 February 2005.

Eligibility in Kyoto Protocol:

● To participate in the mechanisms, Annex I Parties must meet, among others, the following
eligibility requirements:
● They must have ratified the Kyoto Protocol.
● They must have calculated their “assigned amount” in terms of tonnes of CO2-
● equivalent emissions.
● They must have in place a national system for estimating emissions and removals of
greenhouse gases within their territory.
● They must have in place a national registry to record and track the creation and movement
of ERUs, CERs, AAUs and RMUs and must annually report such information to the
secretariat.
● They must annually report information on emissions and removals to the secretariat.

Technicalities within Kyoto Protocol:

The Kyoto Protocol, an international treaty under the UNFCCC, set binding greenhouse gas (GHG)
emission limits for Annex I Parties (mostly developed countries) for the first commitment period
from 2008 to 2012. These limits are called "assigned amounts," which represent the total quantity of
GHG emissions a Party is allowed to emit during that five-year period.

The calculation of the assigned amount is based primarily on three factors as per Article 3,
paragraphs 7 and 8 of the Kyoto Protocol:

1. Base-Year Emissions: This is the reference level of emissions from which reductions are
calculated. For most Annex I Parties, the base year is 1990, representing each Party’s
aggregate anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. However, for hydrofluorocarbons
(HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆), some Parties are allowed to
use 1995 as the base year reflecting the availability of earlier data and use patterns.

27 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

 2. Emission Reduction Target: Each Annex I Party has a specific reduction commitment
relative to its base-year emissions. For example, a Party might have committed to reducing
emissions by 8% below its 1990 levels over the commitment period.
3. Five-year Period Multiplier: Since the commitment period spans five years (2008-2012),
the base-year emissions multiplied by the reduction target percentage is further multiplied
by five to get the total assigned amount across the entire period.

A simplified formula looks like this:

Assigned Amount = Base-Year Emissions × Emission Reduction Target × 5yrs.

This assigned amount sets the emission "ceiling" for the Party. Emissions above this level would be
non-compliant unless offset by trading emission units under mechanisms allowed by the Protocol
(like Assigned Amount Units or AAUs).

Countries with commitments under the Kyoto Protocol to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions
must meet their targets primarily through national measures. As an additional means of meeting
these targets, the Kyoto Protocol introduced three market-based mechanisms, thereby creating what
is now known as the “carbon market.” The Kyoto mechanisms are:

● Joint Implementation (JI) [Article 6 of the Protocol]

● Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) [Article 12 of the Protocol]
● International Emissions Trading Scheme [Article 17 of the Protocol]

The objective of the above-mentioned exercising mechanisms:

● Stimulate sustainable development through technology transfer and investment

● Help countries with Kyoto commitments to meet their targets by reducing emissions or
removing carbon from the atmosphere in other countries in a cost-effective way
● Encourage the private sector and developing countries to contribute to emission reduction
efforts.

Joint Implementation (JI)

The mechanism known as, “Joint Implementation” allows a country with an emission reduction or
limitation commitment under Kyoto Protocol - Annex I to earn Emission Reduction Units, from an

28 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

emission reduction or emission removal project in another Annex - I nation, each equivalent to one
tonnes of CO2, which can be counted towards meeting the Kyoto Protocol target.

It offers a flexible and cost-effective means of fulfilling a part of commitments and allows
technology transfer.

Annex I Parties which have ceilings for GHG emissions (emission caps), assist Non-Annex I Parties
which don’t have emission caps, to implement project activities to reduce GHG emissions (or
remove by sinks), and credits will be issued based on emission reductions (or removals by sinks)
achieved by the project activities.

Key flow of JI:

● Annex I Parties which have ceilings for GHG emissions (emission caps), assist other Annex
I Parties to implement project activities to reduce GHG emissions (or remove by sinks), and
credits will be issued based on amount of emission reductions (or removals by sinks)
achieved by the project activities.
● A Party where the JI project is implemented is called a host Party.
● The credit from the JI is called Emission Reduction Unit (ERU)
● Any such project shall provide a GHG emission reduction, or removals by sinks, that is
additional to any that would otherwise occur. [KPArt.6para1(b)]
● The ERUs will be earned by the country which is financing the project in the host country
(country where the project is being implemented). JI offers Parties a flexible and cost-
efficient means of fulfilling a part of their Kyoto commitments, while the host Party benefits
from foreign investment and technology transfer.
● ERUs will be issued only after 2008.
● ERUs can be used to achieve the emission reduction target of the invest country(s) (The
Total emission allowance of the participating countries will be the same)

29 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

 Fig. 7: Schematic: Joint Implementation Initiative

Example of a Joint Implementation (JI)

The Danish project from 2008, where Denmark invested in modern green technology projects in the
Czech Republic. This collaboration lasted four years and allowed Denmark to earn Emission
Reduction Units (ERUs) that contributed to meeting its Kyoto emission reduction targets

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

It allows the Annex I countries with emission limitation commitment to implement projects in Non-
Annex I countries with emission limitation commitment. It is the first environmental investment and
credit scheme of its kind, providing standardized emissions offset instruments, CERs.

Such projects can earn saleable certified emissions (CER) credits, each equivalent to one tonne of
CO2, which can be counted in meeting Kyoto protocol.

Key flow of CDM:

● Annex I Parties which have ceilings for GHG emissions (emission caps), assist Non-Annex
I Parties which don’t have emission caps, to implement project activities to reduce GHG
emissions (or remove by sinks), and credits will be issued based on emission reductions (or
removals by sinks) achieved by the project activities.
● The party where the CDM project is implemented is called a host Party.
● The credit from the CDM is called Certified Emission Reduction (CER).
● Reductions in emissions shall be additional to any that would occur in the absence of the
certified project activity.
● Annex I Parties can use CERs to contribute to compliance of their quantified GHG emissions
reduction targets of the Kyoto Protocol.

30 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

 ● As a result, the amount of emission cap of Annex I Parties will increase. The CDM will
issue CERs before the 1st commitment period.
● CERs issued based on activities during the period from the year 2000 up to 2012 can be used
in achieving compliance of Annex I Parties in the 1st commitment period. [KP Art.12 para10]

Fig.8. Schematic: Clean Development Mechanism

Examples of the types of projects eligible for CDM are shown in the following table:

Sectors Project Type

Renewable Energy ● Biomass – Electricity generation from crop

residue, rice husk, etc.
● Biogas power generation (animal waste, biogas
from organic wastewater, landfill gas
utilization)
● Hydro power (mini-hydro, micro-hydro)
● Solar power (solar water heating, solar
photovoltaic systems)
● Wind power
● Geothermal

Energy Efficiency ● EE household (Distribution of CFL lamps) EE

Improvement industry (manufacturing process, fossil fuel
boilers, etc.)
● EE own generation (electricity generation for
captive usage e.g. waste heat recovery)

Methane Avoidance ● Biogas recovery from landfills

● Landfill gas flaring
● Biogas recovery from anaerobic
water/wastewater treatment systems (organic
industrial wastewater, animal wastewater)

31 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

 ● Waste-to-energy (production of refuse derived
fuel: RDF, Power and heat production from
wastes)
● Methane avoidance from biomass left to decay
(organic waste, agricultural residue)

Fossil Fuel Switching ● Switching from Oil to Natural gas (e.g.

replacing diesel engines with gas engines)
● Others

Cement ● Alternative fuels

● Blended Cement Methane

Fugitive Gas & Heat Utilization ● Coal Mine Methane (CMM)/Coal Bed Methane
(CBM)
● BFG (Blast Furnace Gas)
● LDG, COG (Coke Oven Gas)
● Waste gas from Direct Reduction Iron (DRI)
kiln
● Cement production line, COG (CDQ)
● Electric arc furnace gas

Transport ● Conversion to no or lower GHG emission fuel

for vehicles – Modal shift from road to rail for
transportation of cars.
● Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system
● Efficient braking system in Delhi Metro

Destruction / Reduction of high GWP ● HFC, PFC, N2O, SF6

GHGs

Afforestation/Reforestation

International Emissions Trading (IET)

International Emission Trading (IET) allows countries with emission limits (Annex I Parties) to trade
their carbon credits (Emission Reduction Units (ERUs) from JI and Certified Emission Reduction
(CER) from CDM). If a country emits less than its allowed limit, it can sell the extra emission
permits, called Assigned Amount Units (AAUs), to other countries that exceed their limits. This
system helps countries meet their targets more cheaply and flexibly.

1. The total amount of emission cap of Annex I Parties will not change.
2. Only Annex 1 Parties can participate in International Emissions Trading.

32 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

 3. Minimum trading unit is 1 t-CO2 equivalent.

Fig 8: International Emission Trading

Annex I Parties can trade following types of Kyoto Protocol units:

● Assigned Amount Unit (AAU) Total amount of AAUs of an Annex I Party is calculated from
its base year emissions and emission reduction target
● Removal Unit (RMU) Total amount of RMU of an Annex I Party is calculated from net
removal of GHGs by afforestation and reforestation (A/R) activities and additional activities
related to GHG removals by sinks
● Emission Reduction Unit (ERU) from JI
● Certified Emission Reduction (CER) from the CDM
● Temporary CER (tCER) and long-term CER (lCER). The tCER and lCER are issued from
afforestation and reforestation (A/R) CDM project activities.

33 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

Annexure -1: List of Annex 1 Parties to the Convention
Australia Latvia

Austria Liechtenstein

Belarus Lithuania

Belgium Luxembourg

Bulgaria Malta

Canada Monaco

Croatia Netherlands

Czech Republic Norway

Denmark Poland

Estonia Portugal

European Union Romania

Finland Russian Federation

France Slovakia

Germany Slovenia

Greece Spain

Hungary Sweden

Iceland Switzerland

34 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

Ireland Turkey

Italy Ukraine

Japan United Kingdom and Ireland

United States of America

LEGACY OF THE KYOTO PROTOCOL

Politically, opinion is divided. The UN calculates that emissions have dropped by 22.6% compared
to 1990 levels by 2012. Thus, Kyoto was a success, and it was quite likely that the Kyoto
commitment period will be extended to 2020 and to this effect there was a meeting in Doha. Parties
to the Kyoto Protocol adopted an amendment to the Kyoto Protocol to extend its period from 2012
to 2020 at Doha in December 2012 called the Doha amendment. However, it never came into force
as only 88 countries signed the Doha amendment, and it needs 100+ more signatories to come into
force. After the end of Kyoto’s first commitment period and failure to adopt the Doha amendment,
the Paris Agreement was adopted, summary of which is presented below.

1(C): Paris Agreement and Regulatory Framework

At COP 21 in Paris, on 12 December 2015, Parties to the UNFCCC reached a landmark agreement
to combat climate change and to accelerate and intensify the actions and investments needed for a
sustainable low carbon future. The Paris Agreement builds upon the Convention and – for the first
time – brings all nations into a common cause to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate
change and adapt to its effects, with enhanced support to assist developing countries to do so. As
such, it charts a new course in the global climate effort. The Paris Agreement’s central aim is to
strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping a global temperature rise
this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit
the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Additionally, the agreement aims to
increase the ability of countries to deal with the impacts of climate change, and at making finance
flows consistent with a low GHG emissions and climate-resilient pathway. To reach these ambitious
goals, appropriate mobilization and provision of financial resources, a new technological framework

35 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

and enhanced capacity-building is to be put in place, thus supporting action by developing countries
and the most vulnerable countries, in line with their own national objectives. The Agreement also
provides for an enhanced transparency framework for action and support.

Essential Elements of Paris Agreement:

The Paris Agreement addresses crucial areas necessary to combat climate change. Some of the key
aspects of the Agreement are set out below:

Long-term temperature goal – The Paris Agreement, in seeking to strengthen the global response
to climate change, reaffirms the goal of limiting global temperature increase to well below 2 degrees
Celsius, while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees.

Global peaking–To achieve this temperature goal, Parties aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse
gas emissions (GHGs) as soon as possible, recognizing peaking will take longer for developing
country Parties, to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by
sinks of GHGs in the second half of the century.

Mitigation – The Paris Agreement establishes binding commitments by all Parties to prepare,
communicate and maintain a nationally determined contribution (NDC) and to pursue domestic
measures to achieve them. It also prescribes that Parties shall communicate their NDCs every 5 years
and provide information necessary for clarity and transparency. To set a firm foundation for higher
ambition, each successive NDC will represent a progression beyond the previous one and reflect the
highest possible ambition. Developed countries should continue to take the lead by undertaking
absolute economy-wide reduction targets, while developing countries should continue enhancing
their mitigation efforts, and are encouraged to move toward economy-wide targets over time in the
light of different national circumstances.

Sinks and reservoirs –The Paris Agreement also encourages Parties to conserve and enhance, as
appropriate, sinks and reservoirs of GHGs.

Voluntary cooperation/Market- and non-market-based approaches– The Paris Agreement

recognizes the possibility of voluntary cooperation among Parties to allow for higher ambition and
sets out principles – including environmental integrity, transparency and robust accounting – for any
cooperation that involves internationally transferal of mitigation outcomes. It establishes a

36 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

mechanism to contribute to the mitigation of GHG emissions and support sustainable development
and defines a framework for non-market approaches to sustainable development.

Adaptation – The Paris Agreement establishes a global goal on adaptation – of enhancing adaptive
capacity, strengthening resilience and reduction of vulnerability to climate change. It aims to
significantly strengthen national adaptation efforts, including through support and international
cooperation. It also recognizes that adaptation is a global challenge faced by all. All Parties should
engage in adaptation planning and are expected to submit and periodically update an adaptation
communication on their priorities, implementation and support needs, plans and actions. Developing
country Parties will receive enhanced support for adaptation actions.

Loss and damage – The Paris Agreement significantly enhances the Warsaw International
Mechanism on Loss and Damage, which will develop approaches to help vulnerable countries cope
with the adverse effects of climate change, including extreme weather events and slow-onset events
such as sea-level rise. The Agreement provides a framework for Parties to enhance understanding,
action and support about loss and damage.

Finance, technology and capacity-building support– The Paris Agreement reaffirms the obligations
of developed countries to support the efforts of developing country Parties to build clean, climate-
resilient futures, while for the first time encouraging voluntary contributions by other Parties.
Provision of resources should also aim to achieve a balance between adaptation and mitigation. In
addition to reporting on finance already provided, developed country Parties commit to submit
indicative information on future support every two years, including projected levels of public
finance. The agreement also provides that the Financial Mechanism of the Convention, including
the Green Climate Fund (GCF), shall serve the Agreement. International cooperation on climate-
safe technology development and transfer and building capacity in the developing world are also
strengthened: a technology framework is established under the Agreement and capacity- building
activities will be strengthened through, inter alia, enhanced support for capacity building actions in
developing country Parties and appropriate institutional arrangements.

Climate change education, training, public awareness, public participation and public access to
information is also to be enhanced under the Agreement.

Transparency, implementation and compliance – The Paris Agreement relies on a robust

transparency and accounting system to provide clarity on action and support by Parties, with

37 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

flexibility for their differing capabilities of Parties. In addition to reporting information on
mitigation, adaptation and support, the Agreement requires that the information submitted by each
Party undergoes international review. The Agreement also includes a mechanism that will facilitate
implementation and promote compliance in a non-adversarial and non- punitive manner and will
report annually to the CMA.

Global Stocktake – A “global stocktake”, to take place in 2023 and every 5 years thereafter, will
assess collective progress toward meeting the purpose of the Agreement in a comprehensive and
facilitative manner. Its outcomes will inform Parties in updating and enhancing their actions and
support and enhancing international cooperation. For 2018 a facilitative dialogue is envisaged to
take stock of collective progress towards the long-term emission reduction goal of Art 4.

The decision also welcomes the efforts of all non-Party stakeholders to address and respond to
climate change, including those of civil society, the private sector, financial institutions, cities and
other sub-national authorities. These stakeholders are invited to scale up their efforts and showcase
them via the Non-State Actor Zone for Climate Action platform (http://climateaction.unfccc.int).
Parties also recognized the need to strengthen the knowledge, technologies, practices and efforts of
local communities and indigenous peoples, as well as the important role of providing incentives
through tools such as domestic policies and carbon pricing.

C.1 NDC
The Paris Agreement requires all Parties to put forward their best efforts through “nationally
determined contributions” (NDCs) and to strengthen these efforts in the years ahead.

Under the Paris Agreement, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are the climate action
plans that each country submits, outlining their commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
and adapting to climate impacts. NDCs are determined independently by each party based on their
circumstances and capabilities, and countries must update these pledges every five years, raising
ambition over time to keep global warming well below 2°C, ideally limiting it to 1.5°C.

NDCs typically include specific emission reduction targets, adaptation strategies, mitigation
policies, and information on required resources, technology, and capacity-building needs. While
some pledges are unconditional, others depend on international support or developments in climate

38 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

policy. Countries combined NDCs form the backbone of global efforts to address climate change
under the Paris Agreement, and progress is tracked through mechanisms like the Global Stocktake.

C.2 Regulatory Compliance

The Paris Agreement’s regulatory compliance framework is designed to encourage countries to meet
their climate commitments primarily through transparency, reporting, and facilitation rather than
punitive enforcement. Article 15 of the Agreement establishes a Compliance Committee tasked with
facilitating implementation and promoting compliance in a non-adversarial and non-punitive
manner. This committee cannot impose sanctions or penalties but works as a "help desk" to support
countries in meeting their obligations by identifying challenges, making recommendations, and
providing technical assistance if needed.

The regulatory compliances under the Paris Agreement refer to the obligations and processes that
countries must follow to ensure transparency, accountability, and progression toward their climate
goals. These include:

1. Reporting Requirements: Countries must regularly submit detailed reports on their

greenhouse gas emissions and the implementation of their nationally determined
contributions (NDCs). These reports provide data transparency, allowing others to track
progress and verify actions.
2. Transparency Framework: There is an enhanced transparency framework that requires
countries to provide clear, consistent information that is subject to technical expert review.
This framework promotes openness and comparability of climate actions and outcomes
among all parties.
3. Compliance Committee Oversight: A specially established Compliance Committee
monitors the adherence to obligations. Its role is facilitative and supportive, working in a
non-punitive and non-adversarial manner to help countries overcome challenges in meeting
their commitments.
4. Global Stocktake: Every five years, a global stocktake assesses collective progress toward
achieving the long-term goals of the Agreement. This process encourages countries to update
and raise the ambition of their NDCs regularly.

39 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

 5. Facilitative Mechanisms: The Agreement includes mechanisms to provide technical
assistance, capacity building, and support to developing countries to help them comply with
their commitments.

C.3 Trends
Trends in the Paris Agreement implementation reveal both progress and ongoing challenges. Since
its adoption, the Agreement has catalyzed widespread global climate action, guiding policies,
business strategies, and international cooperation toward reducing emissions and adapting to climate
impacts. The global temperature rise trajectory has been somewhat reduced from initial projections
of +4°C to about 2.4–2.6°C by 2100 due to these actions, with hopes to lower it further if countries
fully implement long-term pledges.

The key trends observed in the implementation of the Paris Agreement include:

1. Increased Climate Ambition: More countries, cities, and businesses are adopting net-zero
or carbon neutrality targets, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions substantially over
the coming decades.
2. Growth of Renewable Energy: There is a significant global shift toward renewable energy
sources like solar, wind, and hydropower, reducing reliance on fossil fuels and lowering
carbon footprints.
3. Focus on Methane Reduction: Methane emissions, which have a much higher short-term
warming potential than CO₂, have gained attention, leading to international pledges and
corporate commitments to curb methane emissions.
4. Climate Finance Expansion: Developed countries are increasing financial support for
developing nations to help them mitigate climate change impacts and build resilience,
including initiatives like the Loss and Damage Fund.
5. Ongoing Emission Challenges: Despite progress, global greenhouse gas emissions have
continued to rise, highlighting the gap between current commitments and what is needed to
limit warming to 1.5°C.
6. Need for Accelerated Action: The next decade is critical for transformative policies and
actions, emphasizing faster implementation of climate solutions, technology deployment,
and sustainable development.

40 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

 7. Greater International Cooperation: Enhanced collaboration through periodic global
stocktakes, transparency frameworks, and climate diplomacy is reinforcing efforts to meet
and increase collective ambition under the Agreement.

Carbon Market - Evolving market mechanism for efficient reduction of GHG load

Recent carbon market developments highlight the ongoing efforts to build functional and high-
integrity markets through India's new Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS), global progress under
Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, and growing global emissions. While India's CCTS aims to reduce
industrial emissions through a rate-based emissions intensity mechanism, the global focus is on the
operationalization of Article 6, despite concerns about the quality of new Article 6 credits and
potential issues with community impacts and transparency. Meanwhile, a global surge in emissions
underscores the urgent need for effective and credible market mechanisms.

Significance of Carbon Market

They provide an economic incentive for reducing emissions cost-effectively. Mobilize private
capital for green projects and innovation. This will help countries meet their nationally determined
contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. It generates public revenues to fund environmental
infrastructure and sustainable development. Enables global cooperation and technology transfer
through linking international carbon markets.

Types and Functioning of Carbon Markets

Compliant (Regulated) Carbon Markets: These are established and regulated by governments or
international bodies to meet legally binding emission reduction targets. Entities must comply with
caps on their emissions or purchase credits. A key example is the European Union Emissions Trading
System (EU ETS), the largest global carbon market. Entities receive or buy emission allowances
that represent the right to emit a certain amount of CO2, and emissions must stay within these caps.
Surplus allowances can be sold to other entities.

Voluntary Carbon Markets (VCM): These operate outside of regulation and allow businesses,
individuals, and organizations to purchase carbon credits voluntarily, often to demonstrate corporate
social responsibility or meet voluntary climate targets. Projects generating credits include
reforestation, renewable energy, and methane capture. VCM focuses increasingly on integrity and

41 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

project quality to combat greenwashing. Despite some recent slowdown, demand for high-quality
credits remains steady, with a surge in nature-based removal credits and premium prices for recent
vintage credits.

Global carbon pricing now covers about 28% of emissions with revenues exceeding $100 billion in
2024. Emissions trading systems and carbon taxes are expanding, especially in middle-income
economies including India. Compliance markets saw strong growth in demand, nearly tripling
compared to the previous year while voluntary markets showed modest growth. Integrity and high-
quality credits are increasingly prioritized, driving changes in project methods and credit approval

India’s initiative towards building Carbon Market

India launched its carbon market in 2023 focusing primarily on a Compliance Carbon Market
mechanism aimed at large industrial emitters. This obliges large industrial facilities to follow GHG
emission caps and participate in trading Carbon Credit Certificates (CCCs), and allows non-
obligated entities or project developers to register emission reduction/removal projects and generate
tradeable carbon credits. The CCTS establishes the Indian Carbon Market (ICM) by creating a
unified framework for carbon pricing.

Categories of Carbon Credits in India

Credits can be generated through verified emission reduction projects covering sectors like
renewable energy, energy efficiency, waste management, and afforestation. India’s marketing
categorizes credits based on the project type and verification status to ensure project transparency
and effectiveness.

Phase-wise Implementation Plan of India’s Carbon Market

 Phase 1: Initial Launch and Compliance Mechanism (FY 2026)

The objective is to create a formal compliance for high emitters with legally binding targets to
enable emission reductions through trading or project-based offsets.The focus on large industrial
emitters from 9 sectors identified under the Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT) scheme.

Sectors that are covered in this are: Aluminium, chlor-alkali, cement, fertilisers, iron and steel,
pulp and paper, petrochemicals, petroleum refining, and textiles. Covered Entities: Around 800
facilities exceeding set emission thresholds. Greenhouse Gases (GHGs): CO2 and certain

42 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

 industrial gases such as PFCs initially. Metric: Emission intensity targets (tonnes of CO2e per
unit of production). It deals with annual reporting with a rolling three-year target trajectory.

Carbon Credit Certificates (CCCs) trading will be regulated on recognized exchanges under
Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) oversight.Sector-specific intensity
baselines and carbon reduction targets set by Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE).

Strict greenhouse gas Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) rules will apply, penalties
for non-compliance.

 Phase 2: Expansion

This will cover additional sectors, and smaller industrial entities will be gradually covered based
on readiness and market conditions. And include more of GHG emissions and gradual inclusion
of other greenhouse gases beyond CO2 and PFCs. Concurrently, a voluntary carbon credit
window will be expanded to cover more project types like agriculture, forestry,
residential/building sectors, and green hydrogen. Broader approval of carbon accounting
methodologies for diverse project types. Develop liquidity, improve transparency, and enhance
infrastructure for more efficient trading.

 Phase 3: Market Maturation and Linkage

From more comprehensive sectoral coverage to matured trading infrastructure to attain full
market functionality. Gradual reduction of free credit allocations with more carbon credits
auctioned to strengthen price signals. Possible future international linkage with carbon markets,
enabling cross-border credit trading under frameworks like Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.
This will comprise enhanced compliance, governance, and dispute resolution mechanisms and
ensure stronger enforcement and incentivize innovation.

 Phase 4: Advanced Global Integration

This will involve linking with major international carbon markets to allow credit exchange and
cooperation. Aligning India's carbon market standards and trading mechanisms with global best
practices. Supporting national ambitions for net-zero emissions by 2070 through robust carbon
pricing and trading mechanisms across all sectors. Inclusion of agriculture, forestry, transport,
and other emission-intensive sectors to achieve economy-wide coverage.

43 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

Why a Phase-wise Approach?

 Market Readiness: India's large and diverse industrial base requires gradual inclusion to
ensure entities adapt to MRV standards and compliance.

 Institutional Capacity: Bureau of Energy Efficiency and other regulators need time to
develop, test, and refine enforcement and registry systems.

 Infrastructure Development: Phased rollout allows time to build the carbon registry,
reporting tools, and market platforms.

 Stakeholder Engagement: Industries need time for capacity building, training, and
integrating carbon management into business strategies.

 Reduce Compliance Risks: Testing phase allows ironing out procedural and regulatory issues
before expanding.

 Align with International Timelines: Phases align with international policy shifts like the EU
Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which begins enforcement in 2026
affecting India’s export competitiveness

The basis of each phase was allotted as per following objectives:

 Sectoral Emission Intensity: High emitters from existing PAT scheme sectors prioritized in
Phase 1.

 Data Availability: Sectors with reliable emissions data and established MRV frameworks are
included initially.

 Economic Relevance: Sectors critical to India’s economy and major contributors to

emissions are frontloaded.

 Compliance Feasibility: Entities with organizational capacities to comply within the

timelines.

 National and Global Priorities: Balancing India’s climate commitments and international
trade policies (like CBAM).

 Regulatory Readiness: Aligning with notifications, legal frameworks, and capacity of

agencies like BEE and CERC.

44 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU

 REFERENCES

 https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/climate-science/
 https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-
temperature
 2025 IPCC: https://www.ipcc.ch/2025/
 https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.html
 UNFCC
https://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/application/
pdf/conveng.pdf
 MoEFCC: https://moef.gov.in/uploads/2018/04/UNFCCC_final_1.pdf
 Climate forcing and feedback: https://climate.nasa.gov/nasa_science/science/
 https://climateaction.unfccc.int/
 https://unfccc.int/resource/bigpicture/#content-the-paris-agreement
 Fifth Assessment Report: https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar5/
 Sixth Assessment Report: https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/
 United Nations - Climate Change - Kyoto Protocol: https://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol
 Newspaper : Indian Express : Exclusive Editorials on Climate Change
https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-climate/co2-climate-change-967323/
 https://member.ghginstitute.org/ghgcourses/CDMJI/print_option/primer.pdf -Clean
Development Mechanism
 UNREDD Programme : https://www.un-redd.org/glossary/annex-i-annex-b-countriesparties
 https://legal.un.org/avl/ha/ccc/ccc.html

 https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth103/node/1001
 https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/EnergyBalance

 Govt. of India - PIB:

https://www.pib.gov.in/PressNoteDetails.aspx?id=154721&NoteId=154721&ModuleId=3#
:~:text=India%20is%20moving%20towards%20a,by%20establishing%20the%20institution
al%20framework.

45 Dr. Lovleen Gupta, Assistant Professor, DTU