Geo-Spatial Assessment of Drought Impact on Crop
Cultivation and Agricultural Shipment: A Case Study of
Sapahar Upazila, Naogaon
Introduction
In Bangladesh Agriculture is highly sensitive to climatic variability, especially in the drought-prone northwestern
region. The districts, Naogaon is in the Barind Tract and its physiographic unit characterized by low rainfall,
undulating landscapes, and declining groundwater tables (BBS, 2021). Sapahar Upazila, located in the northwestern
corner of Naogaon. The people of this area mostly depend on agriculture for livelihood, with rice and mango as the
leading crops. Traditionally, wet-season rice cultivation was the primary practice but due to recurrent droughts and
unsatisfactory yield, farmers gradually shifted to mango cultivation, especially after 2010 (Rahman et al., 2019).
Over the past decade, the number of mango orchards here has increased significantly as a profitable commercial
sector. However, in recent years, yield has been declining due to drought and climatic factors. (Islam et al., 2018).
Despite the economic importance of rice and mango, drought poses a dual challenge reducing crop yield and
disrupting agricultural shipment. Farmers face difficulties in maintaining regular supply chains, and local markets
often experience shortages or price fluctuations (Mondal & Islam, 2019). While several studies have addressed
drought impacts on crop production in Bangladesh, very few have integrated the spatial dimension of drought with
its effect on agricultural shipment, mainly in Sapahar.
This knowledge gap highlights the need for geo-spatial approaches to measure and visualize drought impacts.
Remote sensing indices such as NDVI and LST, coupled with GIS analysis, provide effective tools for identifying
vulnerable areas, estimating yield loss, and assessing disruptions in crop movement (Rahman & Azim, 2022). Such
assessments are essential for improving agricultural planning and ensuring supply chain resilience.
Therefore, the main aim of this research is to evaluate how drought conditions have shaped agricultural
transformation, particularly the shift from rice to mango cultivation, and to assess how these changes influence local
livelihoods and market shipment systems. The integration of GIS techniques with primary field interviews will
ensure a holistic understanding, thereby supporting policymakers, extension workers, and local communities in
designing adaptive strategies for sustainable agriculture in drought-prone areas of Bangladesh.
References
BBS (2021). Statistical Yearbook of Bangladesh. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Dhaka.
Islam, M.S., Hossain, M.Z., & Sikder, M.B. (2018). Farmers’ adaptation strategies to drought in the Barind
Tract. SAARC Journal of Agriculture, 16(1), 23–35.
Mondal, M.A.H., & Islam, S. (2019). Drought risk management in northwest Bangladesh. Natural Hazards,
96(2), 845–864.
Rahman, N., & Azim, S.A. (2022). Meteorological drought in Bangladesh using Standardized Precipitation
Index: A spatiotemporal approach. Dhaka University Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, 11(2),
45–58.
Rahman, M.S., Khatun, M., & Miah, M.A.M. (2019). Profitability analysis of mango cultivation in
drought-prone areas. Bangladesh Journal of Agricultural Research, 44(3), 521–534.
Real observation:
Sapahar Upazila of Naogaon district has six unions, among which Sapahar, Tilna, Shironti, and
Goala unions bear the distinctive geographical features of the Barind region. Over the past few
decades, the agricultural practices of this area have undergone significant changes.
Since around 1995, rice cultivation during the monsoon season was the primary agricultural
activity here. However, after 2005, local farmers began to realize that the soil and climate of this
region were not particularly favorable for rice cultivation. As an alternative, they turned to
mango cultivation and started planting mango trees.
Until 2015, this trend did not spread widely. But after 2015, mango plantations began expanding
rapidly on a large scale, especially for commercial purposes. The expansion grew even faster
after 2019, and mango farming gradually became one of the major economic activities of the
region.
However, since 2023, it has been observed that mango yields in this area have been gradually
declining. One notable reason behind this is the shifting seasonal patterns periods that were
previously suitable for mango cultivation are no longer consistent. This change in seasonal
patterns poses a new and practical challenge for local farmers.
Objectives
To analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of drought in Sapahar Upazila using geo-spatial techniques such as NDVI and
LST indices.
1. To assess the historical transformation of agricultural practices, particularly the shift from rice to mango
cultivation in the Barind region.
2. To evaluate the impacts of drought on crop yield, with special emphasis on rice and mango production.
3. To investigate the effects of drought on agricultural shipment and local supply chains, including disruptions
in market availability and price fluctuations.
4. To integrate field-based observations with remote sensing data for a comprehensive understanding of
drought-induced agricultural changes.
5. To identify vulnerable unions within Sapahar Upazila that are most affected by drought, both in terms of
cultivation and agricultural shipment.
6. To provide policy recommendations and adaptive strategies for sustainable agricultural planning, ensuring
food security and supply chain resilience in drought-prone areas.
