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starting off from it's initial days as to how it was

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impacts India and other nations. And what were
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Based on my comprehensive research, I can now provide a detailed analysis of the Indus Water
Treaty, covering its establishment, evolution, and recent developments.

The Indus Water Treaty: Origins, Evolution, and

Contemporary Challenges
Background and Historical Context
The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) represents one of the most remarkable examples of international
water diplomacy, born from the traumatic partition of the Indian subcontinent in 1947. When the
British drew the new boundaries between India and Pakistan, they inadvertently created a
complex hydrological puzzle that would challenge both nations for decades[1][2].
The partition left Pakistan as the lower riparian state, with crucial irrigation infrastructure—
including headworks at Madhopur on the Ravi River and Ferozepur on the Sutlej River—falling
within Indian territory. This geographic reality meant that Pakistan's irrigation systems, which
had been completely dependent on these facilities, were now controlled by another country[1]
[2].

The Path to the Treaty (1947-1960)

The immediate post-partition period witnessed escalating tensions over water rights. In April
1948, when the Standstill Agreement expired, India briefly withheld water from canals flowing
into Pakistan, creating an acute crisis[3]. This action was followed by the Inter-Dominion Accord
in May 1948, which required India to provide water to Pakistan in return for annual payments[3].
The breakthrough came in 1951 when David Lilienthal, former chairman of the Tennessee Valley
Authority, suggested a collaborative approach with possible World Bank intervention[3]. This
initiated a complex negotiation process that would span nine years, involving engineers from
both countries and World Bank representatives[3][4].
The World Bank's role proved crucial. Under the leadership of President Eugene Black, the
institution provided both technical expertise and financial support. The negotiations culminated
in the creation of the Indus Basin Development Fund of almost $900 million, financed by
contributions from Australia, Canada, Germany, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, the United
States, and the World Bank[4].

The 1960 Agreement: Structure and Provisions

The treaty was signed on September 19, 1960, in Karachi by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal
Nehru, Pakistani President Field Marshal Mohammad Ayub Khan, and World Bank Vice President
W.A.B. Iliff[3][5]. The agreement established a clear division of the Indus River system's six
major rivers:
Eastern Rivers (allocated to India): Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej, with a total mean annual flow of 33
million acre-feet[5]
Western Rivers (allocated to Pakistan): Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, with a total mean annual
flow of 135 million acre-feet[5]
This division meant Pakistan received control of approximately 80% of the total water carried by
the rivers, while India received 20%[5][6]. However, the treaty allowed India limited use of the
western rivers for irrigation (up to 1.34 million acres in Jammu and Kashmir), hydroelectric power
generation, and domestic purposes[5][6].

Institutional Framework and Governance

The treaty established the Permanent Indus Commission with commissioners from both
countries, mandated to meet annually and facilitate cooperation and information exchange[5][7].
The agreement also created a sophisticated three-tier dispute resolution mechanism:
1. Level 1: "Questions" handled by the Permanent Indus Commission
2. Level 2: "Differences" resolved by a Neutral Expert appointed by the World Bank
3. Level 3: "Disputes" referred to an ad hoc Court of Arbitration[5][7]

Evolution and Challenges Over Time

Early Success and Resilience

The treaty demonstrated remarkable resilience, surviving three major wars between India and
Pakistan (1965, 1971, and 1999) and numerous military standoffs[5][8]. This endurance made it a
symbol of successful transboundary water cooperation, with former U.S. President Dwight
Eisenhower describing it as "one bright spot... in a very depressing world picture"[7].
Growing Disputes: The Hydroelectric Projects Controversy
The first major challenges emerged in the 1980s with India's hydroelectric development plans.
Pakistan raised concerns about the Kishanganga (330 MW) and Ratle (850 MW) hydroelectric
projects, arguing that their technical designs violated the treaty's provisions[9][10]. These
projects, located on the Jhelum and Chenab rivers respectively, became the source of
prolonged legal battles.
The dispute over the Kishanganga project began in 1988 when Pakistan first became aware of
survey work on the scheme[11]. This led to the establishment of the first and only Court of
Arbitration under the treaty in 2010, which delivered its verdict in 2013 allowing India to continue
with the projects while maintaining minimum flows[11].

The Dual Process Problem

A significant complication arose when both countries initiated separate proceedings under the
treaty. Pakistan requested a Court of Arbitration while India sought a Neutral Expert, leading to
the unprecedented situation of two concurrent processes addressing the same issues[10][12]. In
2022, the World Bank appointed Michel Lino as Neutral Expert and Sean Murphy as Chairman of
the Court of Arbitration, creating what the Bank acknowledged as "practical and legal
challenges"[13].

Economic and Agricultural Impacts

Pakistan's Water Dependency

Pakistan's economy remains heavily dependent on the Indus River system. The rivers provide
water for approximately 80% of Pakistan's agriculture, which contributes 23% to GDP and
employs around 40% of the workforce[14][15]. The system irrigates 16.85 million hectares and
supports the production of vital crops including wheat, rice, cotton, and sugarcane[16].
The economic vulnerability is particularly acute in Punjab and Sindh provinces, which produce
the bulk of Pakistan's agricultural output. In 2023, Pakistan earned $2.5 billion from rice exports,
while the cotton-based textile sector contributed $16.5 billion, accounting for over 60% of the
country's export earnings[17].

India's Hydroelectric Development

For India, the treaty allows the development of significant hydroelectric capacity. The Indus
Water Treaty permits India to generate electricity from the western rivers while ensuring water
flows to Pakistan[18]. This provision has enabled India to develop multiple projects in Jammu
and Kashmir, contributing to the region's energy security.
Contemporary Challenges and Recent Developments

Climate Change Impacts

Climate change has emerged as a major challenge to the treaty's effectiveness. The Indus basin,
which derives 50-60% of its water from glacial melt, is experiencing differential impacts across
its eastern and western tributaries[19]. Research indicates that western tributaries like the Indus,
Jhelum, and Chenab are fed by glaciers with more stored water, while eastern tributaries have
significantly lower glacier reserves[19].
The World Bank Water Resources Group has predicted a potential 50% water deficit by 2030,
with flow data showing a 5% decrease in the Indus between 1962 and 2014[20]. Rising
temperatures are accelerating glacial melt, potentially altering the fundamental assumptions
upon which the treaty was based[21][22].

India's Modification Attempts

India has repeatedly sought to modify the treaty to address changing circumstances. In August
2024, India served formal notice to Pakistan seeking "review and modification" under Article
XII(3) of the treaty[23][24]. India cited three main concerns:
1. Demographic changes: Significantly altered population demographics in the region
2. Clean energy needs: The imperative to accelerate hydroelectric development to meet
emission targets
3. Cross-border terrorism: The impact of persistent terrorism on the treaty's
implementation[24]

The 2025 Suspension

The most dramatic development occurred on April 23, 2025, when India suspended the treaty
following the Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 people. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri
announced that "the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 will be held in abeyance with immediate effect
until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism"[25][26].
This suspension marked the first time either country had taken such action since the treaty's
inception. The decision was accompanied by several other measures, including:
Closure of the Attari-Wagah border
Expulsion of Pakistani military advisors from New Delhi
Cancellation of SAARC visa exemptions for Pakistani nationals[26][27]

Immediate Consequences of the Suspension

Operational Changes
Following the suspension, India began implementing several operational changes:
1. Reservoir flushing: India started sediment removal operations at the Salal and Baglihar
dams, processes that had been prohibited under the treaty[28][29]
2. Accelerated construction: India advanced the timeline for four hydroelectric projects in
Kashmir, moving their completion dates forward by several months[30]
3. Enhanced storage capacity: Work began to boost reservoir holding capacity at existing
facilities[31]

Economic Ramifications for Pakistan

The suspension threatens Pakistan's agricultural sector, which depends on the Indus system for
irrigation. Analysts warn of potential yield reductions of up to 30% for water-intensive crops like
Basmati rice, cotton, and sugarcane[14][17]. The textile sector, which contributes $16.5 billion to
Pakistan's exports, faces particular vulnerability[17].
The energy sector is equally affected. Pakistan generates approximately one-third of its
electricity from hydropower, with major dams like Tarbela and Mangla dependent on western
river flows[15][32]. Reduced water availability could force Pakistan to rely more heavily on
expensive thermal power sources[14].

International Law and Geopolitical Implications

Legal Challenges
The suspension has raised complex questions under international law. Pakistan has threatened
legal action, arguing that the treaty cannot be unilaterally suspended[27]. Legal experts note
that while the treaty includes provisions for modification under Article XII(3), it requires mutual
consent through a duly ratified agreement[33].
International law scholars have pointed to the ICJ's ruling in the Gabčíkovo-Nagymaros Project
case, which established that upstream countries cannot unilaterally control shared water
resources without considering downstream impacts[34]. The principle of "equitable and
reasonable shares" remains a cornerstone of international water law[34].

Regional Security Implications

The suspension has broader implications for regional stability. Water disputes have historically
been linked to conflict, and the militarization of water resources could escalate tensions in an
already volatile region[35][36]. The move also affects India's relationships with other neighbors,
particularly regarding the Ganga Water Treaty with Bangladesh, which expires in 2026[37].
The China Factor
China's growing involvement in South Asian water politics adds another dimension to the
dispute. As an upper riparian state in the Indus system, China could potentially leverage the
India-Pakistan tensions to expand its influence in the region[37]. This triangular dynamic
complicates traditional bilateral water diplomacy.

The Path Forward: Challenges and Opportunities

Technical and Environmental Considerations

The treaty needs updating to address 21st-century challenges. Climate change, population
growth, and evolving energy needs require new approaches to water management[38]. The
original 1960 framework lacks provisions for groundwater management, environmental
protection, and adaptive management strategies[35].

Diplomatic Solutions
Despite current tensions, the treaty's historical success suggests potential for renewed
cooperation. The World Bank continues to facilitate dialogue, though the concurrent legal
processes have created complications[13]. Both countries have significant incentives to maintain
water cooperation, given their mutual vulnerability to climate change and water scarcity[39].

Economic Interdependence
The economic costs of continued conflict may eventually drive both nations toward compromise.
Pakistan's agricultural vulnerability and India's need for regional stability create common ground
for cooperation[40]. The treaty's original success was built on pragmatic recognition of mutual
interests rather than political trust[2].

Conclusion
The Indus Water Treaty represents both a remarkable achievement in international diplomacy
and a framework under severe strain. Born from the necessities of partition, it has demonstrated
unprecedented resilience through decades of conflict. However, the combination of climate
change, evolving security concerns, and changing political dynamics has created new
challenges that the original framework struggles to address.
The 2025 suspension marks a watershed moment, potentially ending an era of water
cooperation that survived three wars. Yet the fundamental realities that drove the original
agreement—geographic interdependence, economic necessity, and the imperative of regional
stability—remain unchanged. The challenge for both nations is to find a path that addresses
legitimate security concerns while preserving the cooperative spirit that has made the treaty one
of the world's most successful water-sharing agreements.
The future of the Indus Water Treaty will likely depend on whether India and Pakistan can
separate water cooperation from broader political disputes, update the framework to address
contemporary challenges, and rebuild the trust that has been the treaty's foundation for over six
decades. The stakes are enormous—not just for the 270 million people who depend on the Indus
system, but for the broader principle of international cooperation in an age of increasing
resource scarcity and climate change.