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Technolgy Innovations and Growth 1st Edition Jati Sengupta

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9780230_285507_01_prexii.indd ii 10/5/2010 12:10:23 PM
 Technology, Innovations
and Growth
Jati K. Sengupta

9780230_285507_01_prexii.indd iii 10/5/2010 12:10:23 PM

 © Jati K. Sengupta 2011
All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this
publication may be made without written permission.
No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted
save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the
Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence
permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency,
Saffron House, 6-10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS.
Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication
may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages.
The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of
this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
First published 2011 by
PALGRAVE MACMILLAN
Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited,
registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke,
Hampshire RG21 6XS.
Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin’s Press LLC,
175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010.
Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies
and has companies and representatives throughout the world.
Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States,
the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries.
ISBN: 978–0–230–28550–7 hardback
This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully
managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing
processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the
country of origin.
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11
Printed and bound in Great Britain by
CPI Antony Rowe, Chippenham and Eastbourne

9780230_285507_01_prexii.indd iv 10/5/2010 12:10:23 PM

 To Ramakrishna Sarada

With Devotion and Love

9780230_285507_01_prexii.indd v 10/5/2010 12:10:24 PM

9780230_285507_01_prexii.indd vi 10/5/2010 12:10:24 PM
 Contents

List of Figures and Tables viii

Preface xi

1 Technology and Economic Growth 1

2 Innovations and Industry Growth 23

3 Knowledge Diffusion and Learning by Doing 55

4 Innovation Efficiency in Asia 88

5 Efficiency Dynamics and Industry Growth 114

6 Time Series Tests of the AK Model of Endogenous Growth 144

References 185

Index 193

vii

9780230_285507_01_prexii.indd vii 10/5/2010 12:10:24 PM

 Figures and Tables

Figures

6.1 Time series graphs for countries consistent with

the AK theory of growth (except China) 156
6.2 Time series properties of growth rate and
investment rate in China 157
6.3 Sectoral distribution of output, China 160
6.4 Capital output ratio 160

Tables

1.1 Decomposition of average annual TFP growth-rates (%) 16

1.2 Parameter estimates of production function 20
1.3 Rates of TFP growth 21
2.1 Cost frontier estimates of selected pharmaceutical
firms (1981–2000) 27
2.2 Number of efficient pharmaceutical firms
with efficient TC, AC and R&D 28
2.3 Effect of R&D spending on firm performance 29
2.4 FDI model for IR and DR industries in US (1989–98) 36
2.5 Annual average levels of output per hour,
investment per hour and R&D per hour in
manufacturing (1990–98) at 1995 prices 45
2.6 The regression results over 1990–98
(fixed effects model) 46
2.7 The elasticities of R&D per work hour
(The regression of labor productivity on I/L, RD/L
and HK (1994–98) for EU and US) 46
2.8 Economic growth indicators in Taiwan 50
2.9 Select indicators of China’s science and
technology development 51
3.1 Percentage distribution of exports to the US 72

viii

9780230_285507_01_prexii.indd viii 10/5/2010 12:10:24 PM

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 Figures and Tables ix

3.2 Estimate of the speed of adjustment parameters (ϕi)

and the weight ratio θi = Λi/ψi (i = K, L) 78
4.1 GCI rankings 89
4.2 Percentage distribution of NIC exports to the
US of selected product groups 95
4.3 Evolution of exports, savings and investment:
an international comparison (1967–86) 96
4.4 Estimates of production function 98
4.5 FDI inflows in China 1979–2002 100
4.6 Panel estimates (1987–98) of the FDI regression 101
4.7 Estimated TP, TE and TFP growth in percentage in
China 1982–97 104
4.8 TFP, TP and TE indexes 106
4.9 US patent awards (1995) to foreign countries:
top 11 countries 107
4.10 National innovative capacity index (2002–03) 108
4.11 Comparative measures of R&D intensity (1991–2003) 112
4.12 High-technology exports as percent of exports
of manufacturing in 2002 112
5.1 Elasticities of manufacturing labor productivity
per worker in OECD countries (1994–98) 116
5.2 Impact of R&D on growth efficiency based on the
cost-oriented model 121
5.3 Production function estimates for Taiwan’s
manufacturing sector 132
5.4 Average annual rates of TFP growth (%) 133
5.5 Select indicators of performance in R&D in India,
China and US 134
6.1 Where does the AK model hold? 152
6.2 (a)–(d) Results of the time series tests
for the entire sample 153
6.3 Consistency with the AK model of growth 155
6.4 Five-year averages of RGDP per capita
(level and growth rates), investment/RGDP (%) 158
6.5 Disaggregated data on growth and investment/
RGDP (%) 159
6.6 Time trend tests of RGDP per capita growth and
investment/RGDP China (1950–2004) 161

9780230_285507_01_prexii.indd ix 10/5/2010 12:10:24 PM

 x Figures and Tables

6.7 Unit root tests without breaks of RGDP growth

and investment/RGDP China (1950–2004) 161
6.8 Aggregate economy 162
6.9 Aggregate economy: unit root tests on
detrended series 163
6.10 Long-run effect of the investment rate on
growth rate: China (1950–2004) 165
6.11 Bivariate granger causality test results:
China (1950–2004) 165
6.12 Disaggregate economy 167
6.13 Disaggregate economy: unit root
tests on detrended series 168
A1 Comparative study of PWT 5 (1950–88)
[in Jones (1995)] with PWT 6.2 (1950–2004)
[current study]; Time series properties of GDP
per capita growth rates and investment/RGDP 174
A1 Time series properties of GDP per capita growth
rates and producer durables investment/RGDP 176
A2 Time series properties of GDP per capita
growth rates and investment/RGDP per capita;
PWT 6.2 (1950–2004) 178

9780230_285507_01_prexii.indd x 10/5/2010 12:10:24 PM

 Preface

A new paradigm of growth theory is the focus of this volume.

Innovations, technology diffusion and tests of endogenous growth
theory are the key components of this new approach. For the last two
decades the industrial economies have undergone some dramatic
changes. Technology, innovations and information networks have
expanded worldwide. Markets have expanded, knowledge diffusion
has spread far and wide due to the growth of computer industry.
There has been a dynamic shift from large-scale manufacturing to
the design and use of new information technology. New forms of
innovations outside the Schumpeterian framework have spread in
the form of knowledge capital and learning by doing and expanded
the various forms of efficiency not visualized before
On the empirical front the newly industrializing countries (NICs)
of South east Asia like China, South Korea and Taiwan have per-
formed growth miracles. They have shown that competitive and
innovation efficiency can be achieved so as to sustain a high rate of
economic growth by the developing economies. This volume dis-
cusses this new perspective of growth both theoretically and
empirically.
Three important features of this volume are: (1) to explore a com-
prehensive theory of innovations extending the Schumpeterian per-
spective; (2) to discuss the various forms of knowledge diffusion and
their empirical basis in terms of the NIC experiences, and (3) to
explain the various facets of the growth miracles in NICs like China,
Taiwan, South Korea and recently India.
Two important tests of endogenous growth theory are performed
here. One is the empirical study of several countries and the other is
an econometric time series test based on dynamic regression models.
The econometric tests are discussed in Chapter 6, which is contrib-
uted by my student Ishita Nandi. This forms a part of her doctoral
dissertation completed under my supervision. I am most thankful to
her for this valued contribution. She also took care of typing the
whole manuscript.

xi

9780230_285507_01_prexii.indd xi 10/5/2010 12:10:24 PM

 xii Preface

Many of my Ph. D students have helped me to understand the new

growth theory and the various facets of the growth miracles in Asia
and the world. They came from all over the world from countries
such as US, UK, Japan, China, Taiwan, South Korea, Peru, Chile,
Mexico, India and even Lebanon and Iran. I take this opportunity to
offer my most sincere thanks and gratitude.
Finally, I express my deep appreciation to my wife for her constant
support and encouragement. My four grandchildren Jayen, Aria,
Shiven and Myra provided me with pleasant diversions and childlike
questions which I enjoyed most.

9780230_285507_01_prexii.indd xii 10/5/2010 12:10:24 PM

 1
Technology and Economic
Growth

Technology has a general and a specific meaning. Solow (1957) used

the specific concept of technology as a shift of the production fron-
tier or the production possibility frontier. It tends to reduce costs and
improve the long-run productivity of firms and industries. In its gen-
eral and broader meaning, technology characterizes the organiza-
tional structure of an industry that includes all its managerial skills
and investments in R&D. Schumpeter (1942) used the concept of
innovations to include both general and specific meanings of
technology.
The shift of the production function over time may be specified as

Y = F (X1 , X2 , X3 , X4 , X5 , X6 ) = F (K , L, H1 , H 2 H 3 , t ) (1.1)

where Y is output and Xi are the various inputs or sources of product-

ivity, e.g., physical capital (K), labor (L), human capital (H1), R&D
expenditure (H2), externalities in the form of knowledge diffusion
(H3) and the time trend (t). Denoting time derivatives by a dot over a
variable, one could express output growth over time as
6
dY
Y =
dt
= ∑ FX X i = FK K + FL L + FH H 1 + FH H 2 + FH H 3 + Ft
i 1 2 3
(1.2)
i =1

where FXi = δ F δ Xi denotes marginal productivity of each input.

Solow’s technical progress considers a rise in Y due to time alone, i.e.,
it is a residual after growth accounting due to K, L, H1, H2 and H3:

(
Ft = Y − FK K + FL L + FH1 H 1 + FH2 H 2 + FH3 H 3 ) (1.3)

9780230_285507_02_cha01.indd 1 10/5/2010 11:56:50 AM

 2 Technology, Innovations and Growth

The other case of output growth may be due to innovation in the

form of R&D investment when FH2 rises, other things being
equal.
By Duality any production frontier implies the existence of a cost
frontier. Hence a steady state decline of unit costs of output may be
caused by a rise in technological progress – either embodied in the
various inputs, or, as a residual.
Consider an industry with two groups of firms represented by y1(t)
and y2(t), where the first group alone exhibits technological progress.
Then the unit cost c1(t) for firm 1 may be represented as

c1(t ) = c1(t ) [a − b1k1(t ) − b2 k2 (t ) (1.4)

where ki(t) may for instance denote R&D efforts by firms i = 1, 2. The
fixed costs of R&D efforts may be written as a strict convex function
C(k1(t )) = (b3 / 2)k12 (t ) with all the parameters a, b1, b2, b3 assumed to
be positive. Here the parameter b2 measures the positive techno-
logical spillover that firm 1 receives from the R&D effort exerted by
firm 2, denoted by k2(t). The spillover externality is also denoted by
H3 in the production function (1.1).
The current profit function π1(t) and its long-run discounted value
J1(t) may be written as

π 1(t ) = p(t )y1(t ) − (b3 / 2)k12 (t )

∞
J1(t ) = ∫ e −rt π 1(t )dt (1.5)
0

subject to (1.3), where p(t) is the industry demand function which

may be linearly written as

p(t ) = α 1 − α 2 ( y1(t ) + y2 (t )) (1.6)

In the short run, unit costs ci(t) are constant, so that firms seek to
maximize short-run profits π1 by choosing the output levels. In the
long run however the decline of unit or marginal costs over time is
due to increases in R&D efforts ki(t). Here the firms maximize the
long-run discounted profits J1(t) in (1.14) subject to the dynamic dif-
ferential equation 1.3.
Clearly, various types of equilibria are possible here, e.g., competi-
tive equilibria, Cournot-Nash equilibria and collusion or cartel or a

9780230_285507_02_cha01.indd 2 10/5/2010 11:56:54 AM

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