11/06/2010

Indian Power Sector Scenario and need for Transition towards Renewables

Presented by: Prof. Sanjeev Ghotge, Sr. Fellow, WISE

Training Programme on the Regulatory and Policy Framework for Market Development for Renewable Energy in India

Conventional generation scenario

No. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Fuel Source Coal & Lignite (Thermal) Natural Gas (Thermal) Diesel (Thermal) Hydro Nuclear Renewables Total MW 82095.50 17055.85 1,199.75 36,885.40 4,120.00 15427.10 1,56,783.98 (%)
52.36 10.88 0.77 23.53 2.63 9.84 100

Jan 31, 2010; Source: http://www.cea.nic.in/

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Planned expansion during 11th plan (2007-2012)

Sr. No. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Source:
http://www.cea.nic.in/planning/Capacity%20addition%20target%20during%2011th%20plan%20set%20by%20Plan ning%20Commission%20(Revised)-summary%20region%20wise.pdf

Fuel Source Coal/Lignite (Thermal) Natural Gas/LNG (Thermal) Nuclear Hydro Renewables TOTAL

MW

% of Total 63.90 3.60 16.67 16.00 100.00

59,693 3,380 15,627 15,000 93,700

Historical capacity addition (MW)

250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 6th Plan 7th Plan 8th Plan 9th Plan 10th Plan 11th plan Thermal Nuclear Hydro RE Total

Source: All India Electricity Statistics, CEA, 2009

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Historical growth of generation (BU)

Total BU 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
19 90 19 -91 91 19 -92 94 19 -95 95 19 -96 96 19 -97 97 19 -98 19 98 99 - 9 -2 9 20 00 00 0 20 - 01 01 20 -02 02 20 -03 03 20 -04 04 20 -05 05 20 -06 06 20 -07 07 20 -08 08 -0 9

Sources: CEA / MOP/ PC / TEDDY 2009

Green Electricity in the Grid

All India Mode wise Gross Electricity Generation (bu) (2005-06)

Total Thermal 80%

Nuclear 3% RES 1% Hydro 16%

Source: All India Electricity Statistics, CEA, 2007

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MNRE Plan 2007 - 2012

Wind power Small hydro Biomass power Co-generation Waste to energy 10,500 MW 1,400 MW 1,200 MW 500 MW 400 MW

Distributed power (from Biomass, SHP, Wind, Hybrid etc 950 MW Solar power* 50 MW

* Revised to 1000 MW by 2013, Add 3000 MW by 2017 or 10,000 MW installed by 2017 based on enhanced international finance and technology transfer; 20,000 MW by 2022 Solar Mission (23 Nov 2009)
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Annual capacity addition

8000 A nnual capacity addition, M W 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 Year Conventional Wind

Source: CWP , WISE

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Grid Interactive Renewable Power

Sr. No 1. 2. 3. 4 5. 6. Source/Systems Approx. Potential (MW) 45,000 15,000 5,000 61,000 7,000 20 MW/Sq. Km. 133,000 Achievement (MW) 10925.00 2558.92 1302.00 834.50 65.01 6.00

Wind Energy Small Hydro Power Co-generation, Bagasse Bio-power (Agro residue and woody biomass from plantation) Waste-to-Energy Solar TOTAL (Grid Interactive)
Source: MNRE Website on 5th March, 2010

15691.43
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Distributed RE
Sr. No Source/Systems Approx. Potential (MW)
30,000

Achievement (MW)

1.

Distributed Renewable Power, Rural (Biomass Gasifier) Biomass, Co-gen ( Non Bagase based) Captive generation Industrial, commercial ( Energy Recovery from Waste) Solar PV Power Plants and Street Lights TOTAL Distributed Power

109.62

2. 3.

210.57 20,000 37.97

4.

2.39 50,000 361.44

Source: MNRE website on 5 March, 2010

Total RE Potential : 1, 33,000 + 50,000 = 1,83,000 MW

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Global new investment in Sustainable energy (Billion $) : UNEP / SEFI Report

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Global financial new investment by technology, 2008 and growth (Billion $)

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New investment by region 2002 2008 (Billion $)

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Future of Indian coal

Indias Coal Reserves assessed conventionally to last 200 years. But recent official studies predict depletion by 2040. Coal production expected to peak by 2015 and then decline. Thermal plants faced coal shortage of 39 million tons in 050506. This shortage predicted to increase to 55 million tons by 2007 and 90 million tons by 2012. Large scale coal import not financially viable option. Coal Imports: Costs, Infrastructure, Availability ? Coal prices have tripled in last 3 years from $ 40 to $ 120 per MT.( 2004-2007), presently at $ 55-60 per MT 20045514

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Coal Reserves in India

The GSI table : 248 Bt BP Statistics : 93 Bt Coal Vision 2025 of Min. of Coal : 52 Bt 10th Plan document : 18 Bt Data on extractable coal reserve is unreliable

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Coal Demand: (Million Tonnes)

Sectors
Steel & Coke-Oven Power (Utility) Power (Captive) Cement Sponge Iron BRK & Others Total

2007-08
38.00 30 33.6 26.8 15.1 49 492.5

2008-09
44.00 378 38 25 18 52 555

XI Plan project ( 2011-12)

68.50 483 57.06 31.9 28.96 61.58 731

Coal Supply: (Million Tonnes)

Source
CIL Others

2007-08 (RE)
385.9 77.308

2008-09 (BE)
405 92.29

XI Plan Project
520.5 159.5

Total Indigenous Supply Gap

Import - Coking - Non coking

463.258 29.24
19* 10.45*

497.29 57.71
17.8 40.36

680 51
40.85 10.15

Total Imports

29.45

58.16

51
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* As per the Annual Plan 2007-08. Source: Annual report 2007-08, Ministry of Coal, GoI.

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Coal supply position power plants

Source: CEA, as on 31 March 2009

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Coal supply position power plants

Source: CEA, as on 31 March 2009

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Natural Gas supply position

Our proven reserves of natural gas are around 750 billion cubic meters. Our annual consumption in 2007 was 40 billion cubic meters. This will increase geometrically due to power, fertilizer, transportation, domestic and industrial sector demand growth. Gas could run out along with or little later than oil. Import / Cross country pipeline based strategies are effective in medium term (security issues and price volatility are major concerns).
Price : presently $ 8-10 per mmbtu, while Enron/Dabhol 8-

assumed availability at $ 3.5 per mmbtu. Increase in fuel prices for Gas based projects, risks involved.
Decline in Natural Gas production is steeper than oil.
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European Natural Gas prices

10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00
84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 02 04 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 00 20 20
20

European Natural gas price in USD per mmbtu

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008

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World oil production summary

Source: Crude Oil the supply outlook; figure 40, page 68, published by The Energy Watch Group; Oct 2007, EWG-Series No 3/2007; available online at http://energywatchgroup.com/Oil-report.32+M5d637b1e38d.0.html

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Future oil peak

Source: European Hydrogen Association; Where will the energy for hydrogen energy come from: status and alternatives;
Commissioned by the German Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Association; 2006 ; Authors: J. Schindler, R. Wurster, M. Zerta, V. Blandow and W. Zittel of the Ludwig-Blkow-Systemtechnik GmbH; page 6; http://www.lbst.de/index__e.html?http://www.lbst.de/publications/studies__e/2007EHA_WhereWillH2ComeFrom__e.html

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Future Natural Gas peak

Source: European Hydrogen Association; Where will the energy for hydrogen energy come from: status and alternatives;
Commissioned by the German Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Association; 2006 ; Authors: J. Schindler, R. Wurster, M. Zerta, V. Blandow and W. Zittel of the Ludwig-Blkow-Systemtechnik GmbH; page 10; http://www.lbst.de/index__e.html?http://www.lbst.de/publications/studies__e/2007EHA_WhereWillH2ComeFrom__e.html

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Peak in conventional energy

Source: European Hydrogen Association; Where will the energy for hydrogen energy come from: status and alternatives;
Commissioned by the German Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Association; 2006 ; Authors: J. Schindler, R. Wurster, M. Zerta, V. Blandow and W. Zittel of the Ludwig-Blkow-Systemtechnik GmbH; page 17; http://www.lbst.de/index__e.html?http://www.lbst.de/publications/studies__e/2007EHA_WhereWillH2ComeFrom__e.html

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Notable recent statements

Commentator David OReilly Chairman, Chevron Samuel Bodman, U.S. Secretary of Energy Jeroen van der Veer, Shell Chief Executive Statement The time when we could count on cheap oil ... is clearly ending. The era of cheap and abundant petroleum may now be over. Peak oil does exist for easy-todrill oil. Reference CERA Energy Conference February 2005 Christian Science Monitor July 8, 2006 Cummins C., Williams M.; Shells Chief Pursues Simple Goals Wall Street Journal January 17, 2006 Era of cheap oil is over Reuters 02/04/2006 Hope.C. Russia, Era Of Cheap Fuel Is Over. The Telegraph 06/06/2006. Holmes., J. Four Corners Broadband Edition Australian Television Program 10 July 2006

Alpha Oumar Konare, African Union Commission Chair Viktor Khristenko, Russian Energy Minister

The era of cheap oil is over.

the era of cheap hydrocarbons is over.

Guy Caruso, Administrator U.S. EIA

The era of low cost oil is probably over.

Source: Peaking of World Oil Production: Recent Forecasts; DOE/NETL-2007/1263;Table I; page 8; February 5, 2007; Prepared by:Robert L. Hirsch, Senior Energy Program Advisor, SAIC; National Energy Technology Laboratory; www.globaloilwatch.com/reports/peakingoil.pdf

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Peak oil forecasts (2005 -2012)

Source: Peaking of World Oil Production: Recent Forecasts; DOE/NETL-2007/1263;Table II; page 10; February 5, 2007; Prepared by:Robert L. Hirsch, Senior Energy Program Advisor,SAIC; National Energy 26 Technology Laboratory; www.globaloilwatch.com/reports/peakingoil.pdf

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Peak oil forecasts (2012 -2020)

Source: Peaking of World Oil Production: Recent Forecasts; DOE/NETL-2007/1263;Table III; page 11; February 5, 2007; Prepared by:Robert L. Hirsch, Senior Energy Program Advisor,SAIC; National Energy 27 Technology Laboratory; www.globaloilwatch.com/reports/peakingoil.pdf

Summary of scenarios
Peaking of Indian and Global fossil fuel sources, price volatility of fuels Growth of RE generation internationally Growth of RE generation in India Tremendous potential for future RE growth in India Climate change and energy security imperatives will drive future acceleration of RE generation both globally and in India
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Thank You

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