Huge Wins, Monumental Losses, Answering the Critics, and Always Trading

A Conversation with Larry Williams

An Exclusive Look Inside Secrets of the World Cup Advisors

Free Chapter Download

www.traderslibrary.com

ONLY $9.99

Order Secrets of the World Cup Advisors

buy now

Contents
A Word About the World Cup Trading Championships 5

Introduction (Joel Robbins)  7

Part 1  The Learning Curve  13 Chapter 1  Losses, Lessons, and Leading the Pack in Trading ( John Holsinger)  17 Chapter 2  What Losing $20,000 Taught Me About Winning (David P. Cash)  33

Part 2  The Systematic Trader 51 Chapter 3  Rules of the Trade: Developing a Winning Trading System (Neil Peplinski)  55 Chapter 4  Successful Stock Index Trading: Using a Timing Approach for Consistent Returns (Chuck Hughes)  79 Chapter 5  Seasonal Trading System (Kurt Sakaeda)  101

Part 3  Championship Tools for Technical Trading  117 Chapter 6  Trading with an Equity Graph (John Mills)  121 Chapter 7  The Triple Crossover Oscillator (Robert Bloch) 137

Part 4  Winning Strategies from A World Cup Advisor 161 Chapter 8  Swing Trading for Success (Austin Passamonte) 163

Part 5  Looking Back at Larry Williams Legendary Performance  189 Chapter 9  Huge Wins, Monumental Losses, Answering the Critics, and Always Trading A Conversation with Larry Williams (Interview with Chuck Frank) 193

Appendix: World Cup Championship of Futures Trading Highlights  209 Who are the World Cup Advisors? 211 Recommended Reading 215

A Word About the World Cup Trading Championships

In baseball, its the World Series. In football, its the Super Bowl. In trading, its the World Cup Trading Championships. In a recent feature story, National Public Radio referred to World Cup competition as The Oscars of Trading. The World Cup Trading Championships, with separate divisions for futures, forex and stock traders, have provided the premier arena for competitive trading since 1984. Each World Cup event brings together serious traders in real-time, real-money competition with national bragging rights on the line.

Contestants vie on a level playing field for prizes, unique World Cup Bull and Bear trophies, and a possible spot on the advisory team at www. WorldCupAdvisor.com.

The concept is simple: Traders showing the highest percentage increases win the top prizes. Entrants can even elect to compete in a voluntary cash prize pool, featuring 100% payouts. At the end of the day, the best traders prevail. Winning performances have run the gamut, from a modest 53% futures division return in 2001 to the historic 11,376% by Larry Williams in turbulent 1987.
The World Cup Trading Championships are products of Robbins Trading Company and Robbins Securities, Inc.

Introduction
hen you manage a brokerage firm, as I do, you quickly learn your clients priorities. Prompt, reliable service is No. 1. A reasonable commission structure is No. 2. Access to attractive investment alternatives and ongoing education runs a close third. And, from day one, clients have clamored for my firm, Robbins Trading Company, to identify talented money managers and promising new trading models from which they could study and learn new techniques. In our fascinating and fickle industry, this last priority can be the tallest of all orders to fill. One summer afternoon in 1983, some of my key employees and I were enjoying a day of sailing on Lake Michigan and found ourselves discussing this very issue. Although our firm had grown quickly and we were already offering a wide range of trading products and services, our clients wanted more alternatives and more methods that would help them become better traders. We were trying to think outside of conventional approaches when someone suggested that we entice private traders and potential managers to compete against one another. From that tiny seed a giant plan evolved. We would create a controlled environment in which top traders would compete head-to-head, utilizing their own funds, in an ultimate trading gut-check and acid test. This competition would separate the real producers from the pretenders and crown a champion who would truly be the best of the best. Or, as we dubbed the ultimate victor, a World Cup Champion. As our mission took shape, we resolved to do it right. Ours would be a real-time, real-money trading competition, one that would attract upper-echelon contestants and identify the best futures traders. If we could develop a format that would accurately identify the top trading talent amateur or professional we could offer fund management and model development opportunities to the winners. And, using the input and ideas of the various champions, we could provide our clients with the new trading paradigms, strategies and alternative investment vehicles they had been asking for.

Losses, Lessons and Leading the Pack in Trading

10

It sounded easy. We would publish the format, promote the event, keep track of the results, hand out trophies and publicize the results. How difficult could it all be? We soon found out. There were rules and regulations, sponsors and expenses, logos and graphics, spreadsheets and newsletters, lawyers, government agencies, trophy molds, advertisements, account forms, documents and disclaimers. We learned quickly that conducting a big-league event of this nature requires an enormous commitment of resources but Ive never once regretted the decision. For me personally, the World Cup Trading Championships have been a constant source of both satisfaction and fascination. Over the years, Ive learned many new concepts and valuable lessons from the talented contestants. And now finally I get to share these interesting stories, strategies and lessons with a wide audience in this book. Since the first World Cup Championship commenced on February15, 1984, this glorious experiment in competitive trading has spawned close friendships with world-class traders like the incomparable Larry Williams, Chuck Hughes, John Mills and Robert Bloch, to name a few. Ive followed the progress of each years competition on a daily basis and marveled at the displays of skill, patience, resiliency and in some cases reckless abandon. Looking back over the years, the inaugural competition in 84 hardly resembles the competition as we know it today. There were fewer competitors back then and less hoopla surrounding the event. Todays competition is big business with a large cash prize pool at stake and the making of careers in the balance. The initial event was four and a half months in duration; todays championships extend a full calendar year, with traders testing their mettle through seasonal ups and downs. I remember being duly impressed when our first winner, Ralph Cassazone, generated a 264% return, and I wondered if that kind of performance could be duplicated year after year. When Ralph came back the next year to post an amazing 1,283% return, I wondered if we would ever see a performance of that caliber again. Then just two years later Larry Williams did the unthinkable, recording an astounding 11,376% profit, making us all realize that in futures trading, there simply are no boundaries. I watched with admiration and fascination as Larrys account grew by leaps and bounds in 87. When I noticed that it had crossed the seven-

Losses, Lessons and Leading the Pack in Trading

11

digit threshold at the end of August, I did something I would not normally do. Until then, I had never seen a client accomplish such a feat. Larrys account had grown by more than 10,000%. And, though the secondplace competitor was not even remotely close, Larry was still trading up to 1,000 bonds in a single day. At this point, I went against my own financial interests and called Larry to suggest he throttle back his trading. I told him that it was crazy for him to continue to jeopardize his amazing accomplishment. He was paying me a tremendous amount in commissions every day and if he just sat on the account until New Years he would still have a landmark finish and achieve notoriety both for himself and the World Cup. Larry replied calmly. Joel, he said, I cant quit now. Im up over a million. I have to see how far we can take this thing. I could not argue much after that. He is a trader. And traders trade. Its as simple as that. Sure enough, over the next several weeks in September Larry doubled his account. He was up over $2 million when the stock market crashed in October 1987. Larrys account came tumbling down with it. Remarkably though, his account dipped below $1 million for only a few days. He made a nice recovery and finished with an astonishing $1.1million dollars. In this book, Larry discusses the 87 victory for the first time in detail. I think youll be fascinated to explore the emotional side of that wild ride with him. None of us will ever forget 87. Thanks for the memories, Larry. Although no one has ever come close to accomplishing what Larry did, I have seen some remarkable traders follow in his footsteps. I dont know if anyone will ever blitz the field like Robert Bloch did in 98 and 99, posting five top-three finishes in division competition. And I think it may be a while before anyone accomplishes what John Holsinger did in 2002, finishing first and second with separate accounts that appreciated 608% and 304% respectively. But the fun part is you really never know. Out of left field, another unknown trader will post another remarkable finish using his own unique methods, from which we can all study and learn. Over the past 20-plus years, there have been competitors from all walks of life, trading a wide range of markets in a variety of ways. However, they typically fit into two main categories: Technical traders who analyze historical price data to develop systematic strategies, and funda-

12

S e c r e t s o f T h e Wo r l d C u p Advisors

mental traders who base their trading decisions on the analysis of underlying factors effecting supply and demand. On balance, I have found that the systematic traders have been more consistently successful in World Cup competition, although there have been a handful of exceptions. I have observed that when system trading is practiced properly, it takes much of the emotion out of trading and eliminates traders two worst enemies: Fear and greed. System traders expect to incur drawdowns (losses experienced by the account over specified periods of time, from equity peaks to equity lows prior to recovery), and they realize that they may occur before profitability is achieved. When using fundamental trading techniques, it is often difficult to pull the trigger after incurring three or four consecutive losses. Following a system, in which drawdowns are anticipated, can help eliminate this hesitancy. System trading boils down to one cardinal rule: Plan your trade and trade your plan. The system-trading winners of the World Cup Championship have proven that this simple adage can pay big dividends. Part of the beauty of the World Cup Championship structure is that all techniques are welcome and all traders begin on equal footing. Last years defending champion has no advantage over a first-time entrant. Im proud to say that this format, based on our daydream in 1983, has become the gold standard of trading. Competitors can now compete in separate divisions for futures and futures/options, stocks and stock/options and forex trading. Entrants can choose from discounts and premiums offered by many respected sponsors, including industryleading publishers and providers of trading software and data transmission. The World Cup concept has even been licensed in Japan, where the Robbins-Taicom Japan World Cup Championship of Futures Trading has been thriving since 2001. Around early 2000, however, I realized there was an ingredient missing from the World Cup formula. The talented individuals we had identified needed a platform from which they could share their expertise with a trading community beyond my own brokerage clients. And again, from that small gem of an idea, a large multi-faceted plan emerged. First up was a web site devoted to the World Cup Champions. With the help of Chuck Frank, an old friend with nearly 20 years of experience as a broker and trader in the 30-year T-bond pit at the Chicago

Losses, Lessons and Leading the Pack in Trading

13

Board of Trade (CBOT), I launched WorldCupAdvisor.com. The premise of this site is to showcase select trophy winners from the competition, by broadcasting their actual trading activity in real-time. In other words, past World Cup Champions show what they do, how they do it, and how they make fast, decisive moves live for all to observe and learn from. We were lucky enough to enlist the support of many of our most experienced traders, including the aforementioned Williams, Bloch, Hughes and Mills. Im very proud to say that the nucleus we established at the sites inception is still largely intact today. And, along the way, weve added a few fresh faces and expanded the roster to include many noncompetitive status advisors, such as Austin Passamonte, whose trading expertise has been established outside the World Cup arena. On September 18, 2000, Larry Williams funded his first WorldCup Advisor.com Live Update account, and we were off to the races. Currently, we feature dozens of Live Update accounts, which allow our subscribers to monitor and learn from a variety of trading styles and markets. Our traders are baring it all. You can actually view the full account activity of these champions their orders entered, open positions, closed positions and commentary and, thereby, gain insights and expertise by learning from some of the best in the business. And now, with this book, the exemplary ideas, concepts and methods of this truly world-class collection of traders can be shared with an even wider segment of the trading community. After watching traders from all walks of life compete against each other for so many years, Ive noticed certain characteristics and habits that are common to our champions. I feel that any individual investor or active trader can learn some valuable lessons from both the victories and the failures of the World Cup Champs. The missteps theyve made along the way are often universal to all traders. But the moves they took to rebound from them and trade their way to victory are so powerful that virtually any investor or trader will benefit from these insights. Nearly all the World Cup Champs learned their most valuable lessons from their biggest mistakes. Rather than packing it in or becoming devastated by their losses, the champions typically step back, analyze their missteps and use that knowledge to make sure it never happens again. In the first section, John Holsinger and David Cash provide their own unique accounts of the best lessons they learned by losing and they lost big and how they rebounded and ultimately posted spectacular

14

S e c r e t s o f T h e Wo r l d C u p Advisors

returns. As a long-time trader, I related to the experiences of Holsinger and Cash and Im confident you will, too. In section two, Kurt Sakaeda, Neil Peplinski and Chuck Hughes outline how and why they developed their systems and reinforce the importance of having such systems. With the advent of the computer, Internet and fast and simple software programs, monitoring charts and using technical trading techniques is easier and more effective than ever. Section three reveals unique technical approaches used by two of the champion traders. Section four highlights a professional advisor Austin Passamonte who reveals his own unique swing trading techniques which are ideal for todays short-term traders. And finally, in the last section, the legendary Larry Williams opens up for the first time to discuss candidly how he achieved his astounding results in the 1987 World Cup competition, and how his trading has evolved over time. Larrys honest and frank input is compelling reading for traders of all experience levels. As I embark on yet another year of World Cup competition, I remain as fascinated by and passionate about the trading markets as ever. Theyre enormously challenging, yet rewarding on many levels. Theyre volatile and unpredictable, yet they can be a powerful ally if you have the necessary education and discipline. It is my great hope that this book will provide you with both. I invite you to sit back and read the intriguing perspectives of these notable traders. Each has valuable insights that can help you shape your own trading style. Joel Robbins, President, Robbins Trading Company

Looking Back at Larry Williams Legendary Performance

n the world of trading, I dont know if there will ever be another Larry Williams. His performance in the 1987 World Cup Championship of Futures Trading has become legendary an 11,376% return on his trading account. As with every superstar or titleholder, Larry has become the one to beat. So far, no one has been able to accomplish that. Perhaps one day someone will. But his numbers alone dont make Larry unique. As someone who knows Larry well and who was in constant contact with him during his World Cup heyday I can tell you what makes Larry a true legend: his dedication and his drive to test himself, even in the face of tough odds, a deep drawdown or harsh critics. When Larry entered the competition, he was already an accomplished trader. He had already written several well-received books on futures and stock trading, and he was a popular speaker on the seminar circuit. The World Cup Championship, however, provided him with a very public arena in which to test his trading prowess. What happened next is history: He funded his competition account with the minimum requirement of $10,000 on December 15, 1986, and began trading in early January from his office in Solana, Calif. On December 31, 1987, his account balance had ballooned to $1,114,607. These few statistics hardly tell the story, nor do they explain what makes Larry unique among traders. Along the way, Larry had taken his account to a staggering $2.1 million dollars. Anyone else would have stopped trading. Thats what I advised Larry to do. Actually, I thought he was crazy for not stopping. But in his mind, traders trade.

190

A Conversation with Larry Williams

191

So Larry kept trading, only to have his account plummet by $1.4million to below the $1 million mark. Very few traders could ever recover from that kind of loss both financially and emotionally. But not Larry. He kept on trading, and ended the year with his unbelievable result. Trading big sets you up to be a target. Unfortunately, here Larry was no exception. Rumors abounded and critics tried to undermine his performance. He stood up to the scrutiny and to the test of time. In the end, pure trading talent, discipline and a wild trading ride won out. Im honored that in these pages, for the first time, Larry has agreed to discuss the peaks and valleys of his historic accomplishment and the toll it exacted on his emotions and personal life. In a lively and candid interview with Chuck Frank, a CBOT T-bond broker from 1981 to 2000 and Managing Director of WorldCupAdvisor.com, Larry discusses the wins, the losses, the critics, and the importance of always trading.

C h apt e r 9

Huge Wins, Monumental Losses, Answering the Critics, and Always Trading A Conversation with Larry Williams
Interview by Chuck Frank

CF: Larry, by 1987 you were already one of the best-known futures traders in the United States. What motivated you to put your reputation on the line by entering the World Cup Championship of Futures Trading? LW: I actually didnt think I had a good enough reputation. I thought people perceived me as somebody who just did seminars and wrote books. The rumors are always that guys like that are not for real, they cant trade, they just write books. And so I thought maybe I could show people that I can trade a little bit. Before entering the competition, did you consider yourself to be a top futures trader? Yeah, but I can have a large ego. You know, you always think youre good. You have to have an ego to trade, especially to trade in size. You have to be cautious, but you cant be timid. People who are really timid are never going to start trading 20, 30, 40 contracts. I think you have to be a legend in your own mind to be a big-time trader. You have to really believe in yourself. Is that egotistical or confidence? I dont know what it is, but you have to have it, I know that. You must have had a target in mind when you entered the competition. Can you put a number on it?

193

194

S e c r e t s o f T h e Wo r l d C u p Advisors

In my mind, I was thinking if you could take $10,000 to $80,000$100,000, that would be pretty phenomenal. I had taken a couple of $30,000 accounts to a quarter-million dollars, but it was over a longer time period, so I knew what maybe could be done. But trading championships are tough. If youre not correct right away, youre out right away. And the other thing is the vagaries of the marketplace. Some years you see different results in trading championships than other years, and it isnt the traders. Its the markets. Some years the markets present a lot of opportunities and some years they dont. And thats all there is to it. Was there flexibility in the system you were using during 87? Theres always flexibility in most trading systems. I had just discovered, maybe two years earlier, something now known as volatility breakouts. And I was using volatility breakouts primarily in the S&Ps and the bond market. We knew that if the market moved off some price point opening, close, average, midpoint, high, whatever that the move usually continued. We came up with the overall numbers to use, based on what percentage of volatility the range would be and criteria like that, and we programmed it on our own software to see if it worked. We found it was working pretty well. How was the system run? We did it by hand. It was rudimentary. TradeStation didnt exist; there wasnt anything as nice and as simple as what we now have. On January 6, 1987 you closed out a small loser on a one-lot T-bond trade. After 10 trades you were still in the red by a few hundred dollars. Not exactly an auspicious start. Did those first few trades concern you? You always pay attention to every trade. But my entire trading life I havent been concerned about my past trades, because past trades do not predict the future. Theres a great example of it, in fact, because if you would look at the first trades youd say, Oh, this guy is going to blow up; he wont set world records that wont be beaten. So the past doesnt predict much of anything. You cant say Oh, my gosh, I had a losing trade! Of course, you prefer not to have losers. Did I want my first trade to be a winning trade? Yeah, I did. I didnt get it, but

A Conversation with Larry Williams

195

I was still in the game. Because I was using a money-management formula, I knew I wouldnt get blown away too much. I knew I was going to be in the game for a while, even in a worst-case scenario. In retrospect, whats really interesting is to go on the Internet today and find people who say that the contest was rigged, that I had one account I put the winning trades in and one I put the losing trades in.* Well, heres proof positive. Why would I want to have losing trades to start the championship with? Early on is exactly when youve got to have the most money. Youve got to get a jump on everybody in a trading competition, but like I said you cant look back. You can study from your errors, but you cant have your errors become your focal point because otherwise youll choke. [*These rampant rumors precipitated a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) audit in 1988, which identified no improprieties.] You then hit a streak that may well have been the turning point of your year. You reeled off eight consecutive winners, trading no more than a six-lot of T-bonds or S&Ps, to move your account ahead by more than $23,000 and give yourself some breathing room. Had that early streak gone the other way, your year might have been over. Sure, its always true, what if I had a bunch of losing trades? But a traders supposed to have more winning trades than losing trades. So every streak is the combination of what the market presents and what the trader can do with it. Once a trade was entered and your stop was in place, would you hang around the office all day monitoring every tick of the market? Yeah, back then I was usually watching the market all the time, it was right in front of me. I was there for almost every tick. Was there any intra-day activity that could occur to prompt you to override the system once a trade was initiated and exit prematurely? I dont know that I did. The system trades were mechanical heres a buy order, heres the stop, heres where to get out but there were also things that would happen with intra-day market indicators along the way that would give me buys and sells, and I had to be there to watch that. I was looking for certain indicators to

196

S e c r e t s o f T h e Wo r l d C u p Advisors

take place so that I could do certain things; thats why I was looking at the screens all day. Did you make any impulse trades that were not indicated by the system or by intra-day indicators? Im certain I did, I mean we all do. I would lie if I said I didnt do some on impulse. In early March came an incredible stretch of 19 winners in 21 trades, during which your account value appreciated by more than $100,000. You had moved your size up to 20 and 30 lots. Can you explain the money-management technique you employed? I was using something called the Kelly formula that Ralph Vince had popularized. I found the Kelly formula in a little blackjack book, and Ralph and I started fooling around with it and it led to the whole thing of money management. Actually J.L. Kelly Jr. originally devised the formula for the flow of electrons through circuitry. But he said you could apply it to blackjack betting to measure risk/ rewards, too, and then we applied it to trading. Its very wild and it will exponentially increase the number of contracts youre trading when youre winning, so you see that we stepped up from 1 lot to 30 lots rapidly. But when you lose money youve got to step back down. I use a variation of that in my own trading today. Can you explain the specific formula? Lets put F as amount of capital to trade. The amount of capital equals the payoff ratio thats the risk/reward ratio plus 1, divided by probability the system accuracy minus 1. So F 5 (payoff ratio 1 1) 4 (probability 2 1) I did some tables on it. Lets say your system is 40% correct and has a 2.5 risk/reward ratio, youll use 16% of your money. If your system is 63% correct with a 2.5 risk reward/ratio, youll use 55% of your money on every trade. So it varies by accuracy. Its a matrix of the accuracy versus a risk/reward ratio.

A Conversation with Larry Williams

197

Towards the end of March 87, you took a hit of nearly $43,000 on a 50-lot bond trade. But you came right back and made $220,000 on your next seven trades. Is it hard to get back on the horse after a loss of that magnitude? I considered it sort of a dent. At that point, youre kind of a little goofy in your head because youve seen these huge equity increases. And suddenly I realized I was doing something that hadnt happened before. This is a bad analogy, but in a very small way I can understand what Barry Bonds and Mark McGuire have gone through. I know its totally different, and theyre so much greater in what theyve done than Ill ever be, but I can relate to the sense that, Hey youre doing something thats historic. And theres a lot of excitement and pride in saying, Yeah, somethings going on here that Im almost not in control of myself. I really felt that way a lot. Its almost like I could walk on the waters of the commodity markets because I was so in sync with them. Youre just in that zone. And then what catches up to you is that your apparent success brings out a lot of critics. A lot of people are looking over your shoulder, and thats pressure. Ive always had that because Ive been in the public eye. I had always had it before, but never to that extent. How did you know that people were watching what you were doing? People from the floor would call when they saw I was suddenly trading large lots in what had been a small account. People had found out what was going on. The rumor got around and there were some people who said that it was rigged, and some people who said I wasnt any good because I was just trading bonds and S&Ps. So youll see times that year where I traded (soy)beans and (pork)bellies and stuff, just to say Hey look, I am good; I can trade what I want to. And darn it all, Im gonna do it. And so some trades in there were simply to respond to critics. It had nothing to do with really making money. It was to say, Look, you give me a market and if Im focused I can trade that sucker. And so some of those trades were really for that purpose only. And then suddenly I thought, Well, this is crazy, Im trading to win a championship and create history, not to reply to my critics. But you get caught up in the reply to your critics. And theyre everywhere, and I deserved a lot of it, too. I brought it on myself.

198

S e c r e t s o f T h e Wo r l d C u p Advisors

Why do you say that? Well, I dont know that I have an obnoxious personality, but maybe its a flamboyant personality when it comes to trading in the markets. And Ive always tried to separate myself from the crowd a little bit. When you do good research and good writing and good presentations, it draws out critics. Swashbucklers have people who want to swashbuckle against them. After closing out a 105-lot winner of $192,000 on April 29, your account balance was a whopping $872,000. You had made two-thirds of a million dollars in 20 trading days and had a lock on first place in the World Cup competition. Were there any thoughts about cashing in your chips at that point? Yeah, there were several points along the way early in the year where youre saying, Well, you know, Ive done it. But we had a lot of time left, and it would have felt pretty hollow to say, Well, all I really did was get a jump on other people here, then I took my marbles and went home. I dont think real men do that. Was there anybody who was giving you any kind of run for your money that year? Oh yes, there were. There were a bunch of us in the pack at the $40,000 to $50,000 level. There was pressure. I was worried about where I was: second, third, fourth, second, third, first, second. It was up and down there for a while. By the end of May, your account balance had been more than chopped in half. You had stepped up your size and 100-lots were common in both the bonds and the S&Ps, but the magic seemed to have worn off. How were you sleeping? Same as always. This is what Ive done all my life. Some people look at this kind of trading and they go, Oh my gosh. Well, I have that same awe for a mechanic, because I dont know how to fix mechanical things. When somebody brings in a junk heap I say, No way the guy can do this, and he repairs it. But thats what he should do because thats what his career is and he lives with that.

A Conversation with Larry Williams

199

And thats what Ive done throughout my career, so its no great skill or anything of great awe. Its just what Ive done all my life. Ive had ups and downs of huge magnitude in my trading and so its nothing new. Its the life of a trader. In June, you started the long climb back. You made 38 round turns that month, averaging 50 lots per trade, and clawed your way back to nearly $780,000 by the end of the month. The trades you mentioned in other products Euros, T-bills, gold, silver, cattle, pork bellies, and later Swiss Francs and coffee were starting to appear. In addition to making the statement that I can trade any market, did you see some good opportunities in those other markets? Responding to critics was the main reason to be in the other markets. All these rumors were going around saying I can do this and not that. Gosh, that was 15 years ago, and Im certain I was pretty cocky, maybe even an obnoxious person, because success kind of makes you that way. You know, suddenly youre doing things that havent happened before. Although the trades you made in other markets were on balance marginally profitable, they sidetracked you from focusing your full attention on your main trading targets of bonds and S&Ps. Do you regret making those trades? Oh, I cant regret the past. If youre in this business of speculating, you never regret the past. The past cant have you. I dont look at the past; I dont care about it. The past is over, its dead, its history. A losing trade of $360,000 on a huge 237-lot in the bonds late in July wiped out most of your profit for the month. Three more losing trades followed quickly, and you had lost close to half a million dollars in one week. How were your nerves holding up? It didnt feel real good. I thought maybe I had lost the touch. Were you thinking that maybe you never had it? No, I dont think that as much as I was thinking, Ive been through this before. You know, Id seen other swings like that before.

200

S e c r e t s o f T h e Wo r l d C u p Advisors

Id said to myself, This kind of thing happens. I screwed some things up here. Can you get back on track, Williams? You gotta get back in that groove. Wherever that flow is, you gotta get back in it. When you hit the skids with a system youve developed, do you wind up saying, The system lost money today or do you say, I screwed up and lost money today? Both can happen. You can screw up and lose money because you dont follow the system or the system can lose money. Youre not immune from either. Even if youre following the system and youre not screwing up personally, its always going to be an up and down business. If youre looking for perfection and money every day, youre in the wrong business. Thats not what this is about. In the extreme volatility of August 87, you reverted to your original MO, limiting your trades to the bond and S&P pits. On the strength of winners of $130,000, $200,000, $114,000, and $208,000 all in the bonds you finished the month with more than a million dollars in your account. You had overcome the big setback and were finally above the seven-figure mark. Why not stop and leave well enough alone? Greed is a disease of the Western world. Plus, again, I was in a trading championship and I wanted to still push the pedal to the metal. The point wasnt to get to August or October; the point was to get to the end of the year. And how would it have looked if I took my marbles and walked away early, especially at that point with all of the background noise around Larry Williams? In a way, I cannot express to you what it was like. People would call me and tell me about the rumors and complain about things to me. There was a lot of attention to it. I figured in my mind that I was going to go to the end of this thing. I was not going to walk away because that would be one more thing for the critics to harangue at Oh well, he quit early. And I also didnt know in my mind how far I could take it, where I could take it, what I could do with it. The hell with all the critics and stuff, what could Larry Williams do? I knew I had my act together and things were going well. What could I do? I wanted to know that.

A Conversation with Larry Williams

201

With 100- and 200-lot trades common in your account, the quality of fills in wild markets must have been a huge issue for you. Were you satisfied with the bond and S&P pit brokers who were selected to fill for traders in the competition? Well, yes. I was also managing accounts at that time for Robbins (Trading Company) as well as another firm. Joel (Robbins) had picked some people that he thought were pretty good on the floor filling orders, especially in size. Id gone to Chicago, met with the brokers, talked with them. I felt I had good people assisting me to fill orders. Amid tremendous volatility, you stepped up your size with bond trades in excess of 400 contracts in September. Your $10,000 stake had swelled to $2,042,967. Any thought at that juncture of putting the flag on top of Everest and saying Here it is? No. Was there any threshold you could have crossed that would have prompted you to stop trading? Three million? Five million? No, there was no number, no dollar amount at that point. The goal was get to the end of the contest and lets see where you are, Larry, while exposing yourself to a lot of risk along the way. It was a yearlong trading championship and real people stay for the full ride. And to this day, this is the first time that Ive ever referenced those trades of 87, the first time I ever really talked about it. I decided when I was through that I didnt want to look at it, and I havent looked at it since. To me it was like, Hey, you know, I did it. Im through with that; go on to another thing in my life. I guess Im not big on looking back. Did you have a thought as to the maximum quantities you could trade without disturbing the market? I felt I could trade up to 300 S&Ps, and I could probably trade 5,000 bonds at that point without disturbing the market. But that doesnt mean I was right. (Laughs)

202

S e c r e t s o f T h e Wo r l d C u p Advisors

In the plunge of October 87 you got hammered. Two trades alone cost $800,000. The $2 million milestone was in the rear-view mirror. What was your frame of mind then? During the big equity drawdown, I was actually in Africa on a safari. The trading was left to a couple of guys in my office because it was automatic. And we unfortunately sold bonds, and in the flight to quality of the crash of 87 bonds gapped up. I didnt have a clue what was going on at the time, and by the time they got out we had a bit of an equity dip there that you alluded to. Were you literally on safari? Yeah, I was in Kenya. We were on our way to the Mt. Kenya Safari Club and the little guy who came to pick us up with this twoseater plane said, Oh the stock markets crashed, the stock markets crashed. I said, Yeah, I know, it was going down when I left. And he said, Oh, no, its down big time now. When we got to the safari club I could hear people say, Its down 200 points and 200 points back then was down a lot. Then they said, Its down 300, and then, No its down 500. Finally I heard somebody say, Its down 600. And at that point about half the room got up and made phone calls to America to see what had gone on. When I found out what went on, I said, Oh, I wonder what those guys did? Are we right or are we wrong? We could have been right, too, you know. But we were wrong. You didnt check to see what your positions were? No, I did not know. I thought, Well, I know the market was down 600 points. Now Ive got an option here. I could find out if Im losing or winning or I could enjoy the safari. If Im winning Im going to be really wrapped up and I wont enjoy this, and if Im losing for sure I wont enjoy this, so you know what? Im not going to find out. So I didnt have a clue what was going on. Intuitively, I didnt think it was good, and maybe thats why I didnt call. But I continued on the safari, and two days later I got hit with malaria and that was pretty severe. Getting malaria was a lot worse than the equity dip we had. My mind really wasnt too concerned about trading at that point. It was

A Conversation with Larry Williams

203

just like, I gotta get over this to get outta here and then come back to America. I had no strength at all for the first four or five days. Did you ever total up your losses on Black Monday that October? Oh, I dont know, youd have to look at it. Again, you know I dont look back. I really like what Satchel Paige said: Dont look back. Something might be gaining on you. I never really looked at the numbers, but I know it was like a million bucks or something. Somebody pointed it out to me. Did the pressure of these huge swings spill over into your personal life at all? Sure. Because I had way too much money on every single trade, I think that my emotions were affected and that I probably wasnt a particularly pleasant person to live with. Im not manic-depressive, but it does take you in that direction when you make a quarter million bucks one day and then lose a quarter million the next. My emotions fluctuated and I tried to control them so it didnt wash over into my personal life, but it did. I think my family pretty much understood what was going on. Even after that debacle, which included a $638,000 loser on a 400-lot in the bonds, you never missed a beat. Your account continued trading while you were recuperating in Kenya, and you picked up the order-entry yourself when you got back home. You traded to the wire December 28th, 29th, 30th, and 31st. Yeah, I felt that I had an obligation to do that. Some people in trading championships get up to some point and quit, and they may win the championship or somebody may sneak up on them. Obviously, nobody was going to sneak up on me at that point. But I still felt there was an obligation to continue doing what I had done and that was to trade and short of that was pulling up short and not walking the walk of a real trader. When you closed out the last trade of the year on December 31 and posted the final account balance of $1,114,607, were you feeling more satisfaction or relief?

204

S e c r e t s o f T h e Wo r l d C u p Advisors

Thats a really great question. It was relief that it was over. I had been under this microscope from everybody within the business and it was nice to suddenly be out of the limelight and off stage. It was really nice. You have not traded in the World Cup since the historic 87 performance. But you did commemorate the 10th anniversary of the victory in a dramatic way. Can you talk about that? Well, yeah, again maybe one of my weaknesses is that I respond to critics too much. But the rumors were still out that I had rigged the trading championship with Robbins Trading Company, which makes little sense because theres a winner every year. They dont have to create a winner; theres always a winner. But myopic people dont understand that, and that was bothering me. And then some people said, Oh, hes a has-been, hes washed up, and so I thought, Well, lets do something on the 10th anniversary; Im going to teach one of my kids to trade. And so I taught one of my daughters (actress Michelle Williams) a little bit about trading and I said, Hey, if youve got the money, why dont you see what you can do? And she said, OK, lets do it, Dad. Was the $10,000 stake her money and her risk? Yeah, she had done so many TV shows and movies and she was making pretty good money for a 16-year-old kid. Actually, she was making pretty good money for an adult. The interesting thing about Michelle was that when she won, a lot of people said, This is bogus, her dad was doing the trades, or How can she trade; shes a 16year-old kid? Kids cant open up commodity accounts! People were wrong on both counts. Michelle had become legally emancipated to sign a contract for Warner Brothers for one of the movies she did, and so she had legal right to contract. She was entering the orders herself, but then after three or four months in the competition, Dawsons Creek (the TV series) began, and she was getting cast calls at weird hours like three oclock in the morning. She said, Dad, I just cant do all this. And I said, Well, you know what, just call Gene (Payne) at Robbins and tell him to follow the hotline. So she called Gene and told him to

A Conversation with Larry Williams

205

just follow the hotline with this money management thing we had talked about, which was one contract for every $10,000. Michelle ran away with the 97 title with an even 1,000% return, adding $100,094 to her bank account. Any other family members we should know about? You know, they dont want to trade. Nobodys really interested. Even the actress-daughter doesnt trade anymore. Under what circumstances would you consider participating in the World Cup Championship of Futures Trading again? Im thinking of doing it again soon. There will be rumors again on the next big anniversary (the 20th in 2007), but I dont know if I can wait that long. But its hard to do all the lecturing and teaching I do and still trade that aggressively. You have to really be focused to do this. Id like to do something thats really flamboyant, at least every 10 years, to show that Im still around. Maybe Im just looking for an excuse here. Well see what happens. Would you start with the minimum of $15,000? Yeah, start small. Thats the trouble. A lot of people figure theres the old adage in Las Vegas: To win big you gotta bet big. Totally wrong. You know how the house takes your money. You want to start small with $15,000. You can take that someplace, and what can you lose $15,000 at the worst? Can you make that back? Sure, in a heartbeat. But if you start with $150,000 or $200,000 and dump that, thats hard money to get back. Is there anything that people can learn from 87 in terms of systems trading and living through drawdowns? Yeah, they can learn a couple of things. They can draw from the fact that when I went through down periods, I didnt walk away; I didnt let the event get to me, I continued doing what I was doing. I was way over-leveraged and they should learn to do less than what I did. They should also realize that somebody can show you a track

206

S e c r e t s o f T h e Wo r l d C u p Advisors

record hypothetical or real-time trading and the human mind just buzzes through it but doesnt understand the emotions of living through two or three losing trades. The fact that my name is on it or a system has appeared to work in the past, guarantees nothing. The fingerprints of the past are never seen in the future. If you compete again, what would the primary motivation be? To win. To compete and to shut people up. Itll show that Im still around and I can still trade. The critics and the naysayers out there are not just critics of me, theyre critics of this industry, they say everybody loses trading commodities. Well, Ive shown on a somewhat consistent basis that thats fallacious. And you know I dont mind showing that and doing it again. And so, I need to find some interesting way of doing it. Do you feel in your heart that you can replicate what you did in 87? No, because that was a combination of a very low margin and a very wild market. If those conditions come again, even then I dont know if Im going to be skilled enough to do it. Maybe I am washed up. You know, thats always in the back of my mind. At 60 years of age you say, Hey, it could be my better days are behind me, and so you have to wonder about that. But you have to have the right conditions. Can I go in and win a contest? Not at will, but you know, I can compete, I can get in there. I might be first or second or third, but Id like to think Id be in the top bracket. Win? Maybe, maybe not. But will I show that I can do it? Yeah. And thats the goal really, to show that it can still be done. I would really like to encourage people to look at the championships, all of them, Robbins as well as the others. See what type of strategies win these trading championships, so you know where to invest your time and your own research and education. Thats critical. We can learn so much from the styles that win these championships. Because therere a lot of methodologies out there that purport to make money, so lets look at which ones win the trading championships to see which are the most effective.

A Conversation with Larry Williams

207

In your opinion, will someone surpass your 11,376% performance in the next 20 years? I hope so. I dont see why not. We know more about the markets now than we did then, and we understand things with more know ledge, so hopefully somebody can beat the pants off me. Do you think that a top finish in the World Cup Championship, in and of itself, qualifies an individual to give advice to other traders? I think it needs to be respected. Any of these guys who have a top finish did something that no one else did that year. In this business, you learn to respect success. Is there any futures trading championship in your mind thats comparable in prestige and magnitude to the World Cup? No, the Robbins World Cup Trading Championship has the track record. Its created some great traders and a lot of careers. I think that if a guy or gal thinks that theyre good, they ought to hop on this thing to test themselves. It will bring out things in you; it will make you greater than you are. I know the Robbins World Cup Trading Championship made Larry Williams a different person. And Im certain that its done that for all of the winners. Not only getting to know Joel and the people at Robbins, but in terms of your own sense of yourself. You dont have to win; I think just being in it will change your ability to trade. What did it specifically tell you about yourself? That money management is so critical. That I was still very inadequate in a lot of things. You have a million reasons to feel quite adequate about 1987. There you go.

ONLY $9.99

Order Secrets of the World Cup Advisors

buy now
CLICK HERE

To learn how you can compete in the World Cup Trading Championships