The offshore contract drilling market

How to play the cycle

Robert A. Jensen Anders Bergland
Singapore, Dec-12

+47 22016395/+47 958 26729 r.jensen@platoumarkets.com +47 22016374/+47 934 28655 a.bergland@platoumarkets.com

Half full or half empty?

RS Platou Markets Drilling Index vs. OSX index
300

250

200

150

100

Credit crisis Macondo Financial crisis

Oil drops to USD 35/bbl
Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Dec-12 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11

50

Sep-11

Sep-05

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10

Jun-12

Platou Drillers Index

OSX Index

Large cap drilling stocks are still trading about 30% below 2008 peak

Sep-12

Comparison of cycles
Market observation
Macro environment
Stable high commodity prices Accelerating E&P spending Fleet utilization close to 100% Limited availability over the next 12-18 months relative to demand Steady increase in dayrates Contract duration and lead time rapidly increasing Cash on cash return exceeding 20% Opportunities for contract backed newbuilds New regulatory changes creates incremental demand for new assets Clear preference for modern assets by operators Harsh environment New deepwater frontiers like East Africa & South East Asia Significant discoveries fuel demand for development work

2005-08

2010-12

Fleet utilization

Dayrates and contract duration

Project economics

Regulatory changes

Strong incremental demand from new regions

Demand driven by both exploration and development drilling

Current cycle more resilient against downturn

Its not just about the golden triangle

USGoM /Mexico
South China Sea

India

West Africa
Brazil

East Africa

Harsh-Environment is expected to hold more than 20% of undiscovered oil and gas resources
Source: RS Platou Markets, USGS

Dayrates closing in on 2008 peak levels

Average UDW dayrates for new fixtures
700
612

Average dayrates for new UDW fixtures

600
546 490 492

582

500

468

487

464 424
430

469

443

USD per day

400

300

200

100

H1/07 H2/07 H1/08 H2/08 H1/09 H2/09 H1/10 H2/10 H1/11 H2/11 H1/12 H2/12 TD

Source: ODS-Petrodata, RS Platou Markets

Will we get back to the peak during 2H12?

Source: ODS Petrodata, RS Platou Markets

but EBITDA contribution is still 10% below 2008

Average UDW EBITDA for new fixtures
500 450
402

Average EBITDA per day for new UDW fixtures

459

400
366

350
USD per day

345 328

337 309

334

300
264

294 265 273

250 200
150

100 50 H1/07 H2/07 H1/08 H2/08 H1/09 H2/09 H1/10 H2/10 H1/11 H2/11 H1/12 H2/12 TD

Source: ODS-Petrodata, RS Platou Markets

Will we get back to the EBITDA levels seen in 2008?

Source: ODS Petrodata, RS Platou Markets

No real fleet growth scheduled beyond 2015

Ultra-deepwater Ultra-deepwater newbuilds and total newbuilds supply and total supply
30 25 20
# of newbuilds
7 17 10 9

300

250

200

15 10 5 0 -5
7 1 6 2 1 1 2 3 5 1 14

150
21 17

Brazilian newbuilds
1 1 1 2 7 1 5 2 7 1 2

100

11

10

8 1 3

50

5 1

-1

-50

Semi newbuilds Drillship attrition # total supply

Source: ODS Petrodata, RS Platou Markets

Drillship newbuilds Sete semi newbuilds Total supply w/o Sete newbuilds

Semi attrition Sete drillship newbuilds

# total supply

Ultra-deepwater rigs are replacing older units

Floater age profile today Floater age profile YE 2015

Floater age profile today

80 70 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2 0 25-30 years 30-35 years 35-40 years 40+ years 25 47

Floater age profile YE 2015

60 57 48 50

40 32 30

20

17

10

0 25-30 years 30-35 years 35-40 years 40+ years

97 rigs are older than 30 years today this will increase to 137 by YE 15, or about 40% of the fleet

Ultra-deepwater rigs are not just for ultra-deepwater

Ultra deepwater rigs by operational water depth

Only 10% of the current ultra-deepwater fleet operates in ultra-deepwater

Source: ODS Petrodata, RS Platou Markets

Ultra-deepwater backlog peaks in 2013

Ultra deepwater backlog by operator UDW backlog (incl. Petrobras)
140
Other BHP Billiton Cobalt Repsol ExxonMobil
PEMEX Anadarko

Husky Oil Operations Operator Tba Eni

Total BP

120
Reliance
Statoil Chevron

100
# rig years

80

Shell

Petrobras

60

40

20

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: ODS-Petrodata, RS Platou Markets

Expected production increases through 2015 do not support a declining backlog

10

Bifurcation still evident

Jack-up Jack-up utilization spreadutilization spread
100 %

Jack-up dayrate spreads (ex. Norway) Jack-up dayrates

300 000

spread (ex. Norway)

95 %

250 000

90 %

200 000

Utilization

85 %

80 %
50 000

75 %
0 Dec-99 Apr-01 Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05 Oct-06 Feb-08 Jul-09 Nov-10 Apr-12 Aug-13

JU built post 1998

Source: ODS Petrodata, RS Platou Markets

JU built pre 1998

300 - 400 ft, built pre 1998
Source: ODS-Petrodata, RS Platou Markets

USD/day

150 000

100 000

300 - 400 ft, built post 1998

Operators continue to show a clear preference for modern assets

11

The global jack-up fleet is not what is appears to be

The orderbook is well short of the number of rigs that are 30 years or older
500
450 400 52

50 36 14 32

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 476

153 88

14

213

57

0
Current jack- Cold stacked/ NonIran & China up fleet Out of service copetitive* Norway** Mat/slot rigs Rigs > 30 years Newbuilds NonTotal competitive competitive newbuilds* fleet of which are HS/HE

Operational rigs

Removal of older rigs from the market will likely outpace arrival of newbuild over the coming years
* Excludes state-owned and other rigs which are not offered for hire in the open market ** Rigs contracted for operations in Norway, including 4 rigs under construction Source: RS Platou Markets, ODS-Petrodata

12

High specification jack-ups are still only a small part of the fleet
Jack-up fleet overview
Premium 14 %

HS/NH 3% HS/HE 4%

Mat/Slot 12 %

Premium 6% On order 16 % Conventional 4% HS/HE 4% HS/NH 2%

Conventional 51 %

High specification fleet accounts for only 7% of the global jack-up fleet, or 13% when including rigs on order

High-spec jack-up supply is falling short of demand as operators search for more advanced rigs

13

Increased scrapping of cold stacked rigs

Idle jack-ups
160

Increasing jack-up attrition

Jack-up attrition
18 16 14 12
# of units retired
14 12

# idle jack-ups

140

120

100

80

10 8 6

60

40
4

20

Week 24/09

Week 39/09

Week 02/10

Week 17/10

Week 32/10

Week 47/10

Week 10/11

Week 25/11

Week 40/11

Week 4/12

Week 19/12

Week 34/12

2 0

Hot Stacked
Source: ODS Petrodata, RS Platou

Warm Stacked

Cold Stacked
Source: ODS Petrodata, RS Platou Markets

Cold stacked rigs are not being re-activated they leave the market

14

Valuation still not giving credit to secured cash flow

Implied 6G value
1 100 1 029 1 000 932 900
240 220 219 213
209 206 205

Implied value Premium jack-ups

280 263 260
250

800

760 758 749 718 717 694 651 631 606 552 486 435
140 120
100

200 180
USDm

198

193 182 166 151

199

USDm

700

600

160

500

133

400

300
SDRL NADL FOE ATW VTG ESV PACD NE ORIG DO RIG RDC SEVDR

SDRL DISC AOD PROS SDSD ATW VTG ESV

Source: RS Pl atou Ma rkets

NE ABAN DO

RIG RDC

Source: RS Pl atou Ma rkets

Average implied valuations trail recent secondhand transactions

15

So, to sum it all up we believe it is half full!

Historical P/NAV

Peer group P/NAV

1.6

1.4
1.2

P/NAV

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Source: Bloomberg, RS Platou Offshore, RS Platou Markets

Drillers trade 30-50% below previous peaks on P/NAV

16

Conclusion
Floaters UDW fully booked through 2013 with increasing demand for development work Ultra-deepwater rigs continues to replace vintage assets in shallower water Dayrates back at peak levels gives rise to contract backed newbuild opportunities Real supply of jack-ups is not what it appear to be as bifurcation continues High-spec/HE jack-up supply falls short of demand, while older rigs are cannibalized Dayrates expected to strengthen as premium fleet is near full utilization Large cap drillers trades roughly in-line with historical EV/EBITDA but below on P/NAV Implied valuation giving limited credit to contracted cash flow Strong performance during the past months makes stock selection more important

Jack-ups

Valuation

Recommendation

Rowan Companies
North Atlantic Drilling Prospector Offshore Drilling

Prefer stocks have some combination of HE/UDW exposure, contracted EPS growth and dividend

17

Rowan Companies BUY USD 40 TP

Analyst recommendation Recommendation: Target price (USD): Company data Share price (USD): No. of shares (m): Market cap. (USDm): Net debt, YE (USDm): Enterprise value (USDm): Share price performance
Share price in Rowan Companies relative to key indices
42

Buy 40.00 Current 31.48 124 3 889 2 223 6 112

BLB code: RDC US

Building long-term value

Swapping low margin non-core business with high-margin UDW UDW investments more than offset the EPS cut from non-core disposals EPS capacity nearly doubles to about USD 7.0 upon delivery of 4 drillships RDC will secure more ultra-deepwater contracts First rig signed at impressive USD/day 620k Expect signing of rig #2 over the coming months at similar dayrate US GoM and Africa the preferred regions Strong position in a buoyant jack-up market Repositioning of assets are now mainly in the rearview mirror Holds the largest high-spec jack-up fleet in the world 30% of available days open for 2013 provides market leverage Re-pricing expected at higher levels as market fundamentals strengthen Expect continued increases in dayrates driven by high utilization Trend already confirmed by recent contracts Jack-up dayrates expected to increase by USD 20-30k into 2013 Valuation uplift expected as catalysts play out More UDW contracts will unlock value as EPS growth becomes visible Rowan Viking the first available Heavy Duty jack-up worldwide Trading at 0.6x P/NAV compared to peers at 1.1x

40

38

36

34

32

30

28 okt. 11 okt. 11 nov. des. 11 11 jan. 12 jan. 12 feb. mar. mar. apr. 12 12 12 12 mai. mai. jun. 12 12 12 jul. 12 jul. 12 aug. sep. 12 12 okt. 12

Rowan Companies

S&P 500 Index (Rebased)

OSX index (Rebased)

Key financial figures Revenue (USDm): EBITDA, adj. (USDm): EBITDA-margin Net profit (USDm): EPS, adj. (USD): Dividend per share (USD): Net debt, year-end (USDm): EV/EBITDA, adj. P/E, adj. P/B Dividend yield

2013 1 580 673 42.6% 355 2.87 0.00 1 764 8.4x 11.0x 0.8x 0.0%

2014E 2 011 1 009 50.2% 596 4.81 0.00 2 223 6.1x 6.5x 0.7x 0.0%

2015E 2 375 1 247 52.5% 740 5.98 0.00 2 094 4.8x 5.3x 0.6x 0.0%

18

Adding value through ultra-deepwater assets

Removing low margin non-core business
7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0
0.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 0.9 1.0 3.0 2.0 6.5 0.9 0.9

replacing it with high-margin UDW assets

0.5 0.4

4.1 3.2

2.9 1.0

0.0 EPS Manufaturing 2007 Landrigs Jack-up EPS

Jack-up EPS DS #1 @ $620k 2013

DS #2 @ $575k

DS #3 @ $575k

DS #4 @ $575k

Full runrate EPS

Full run-rate EPS in the region of USD 6.5-7.0 upon delivery of UDW drillships

19

Earnings on the rise, but no credit given to the stock yet

Shareprice not yet reflecting EPS growth
7.00
EPS RDC shareprice

Catalysts to unlock value

6.5 6.0 55

More backlog is required for market to fully price in earnings growth from UDW rigs We expect more contracts to be signed over the coming months Each UDW rig adds about USD 0.8-1.0 to RDC EPS Fair value of around USD 60, assuming average historical P/E multiple of around 9.0x and full runrate EPS of USD 6.5, fair value of RDC.

6.00

5.00

4.9 45
4.1 4.1

3.0 2.7 2.4

35

4.00

3.00

2.00 1.1
1.00

1.7
1.1

25

0.7

0.8

0.9 15

0.00 -0.1

0.0 -0.3

-1.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e2013e2014e2015e2016e

Valuation uplift expected as market grows more confident in EPS uplift

20

North Atlantic Drilling Buy USD 12.50 TP

Analyst recommendation Recommendation: Target price (USD): Company data Share price (NOK): No. of shares (m): Market cap. (USDm): Net debt, YE (USDm): Enterprise value (USDm): Share price performance
Share price (NOK) in North Atlantic Drilling relative to key indices 60 55 50 45

Buy 12.50 Current 57.00 230 2 311 2 555 4 867

BLB code: NADL NS

Bringing yield to America

(USD):

10.05

Attractive and stable dividend will lift valuation 9.5% yield on current quarterly run-rate expectations Fair value of USD 2.3 based on 8% yield valuation in-line with Seadrill Upside to dividend as newbuilds start to hit water from 2014 FCF to equity per share will grow from USD 0.14 in 2011 to USD 0.36 in 2015 Industry leading contract coverage and backlog No rigs available until 3Q14 and ~40 months avg. remaining contract duration USD 2.3bn EBITDA backlog vs. current market cap of USD 2.2bn De-risking the company at the same time as distributing dividend Net debt per UDW dropping from USD 475m to USD 335m by YE 2015 Total net debt relatively un-changed, but spread over a larger fleet Leading player in the most attractive and resilient drilling market No real harsh environment availability between now and 2014 NCS dayrates will push higher due to long-term undersupply of rigs Several near-term opportunities to secure a contract for the newbuild(s)

2015E 1 214 744 61.3% 416 1.81 1.29 2 732 6.8x 5.5x 1.9x 12.8%

40
35 des. 11 feb. 12 apr. 12 jun. 12 aug. 12 okt. 12
North Atlantic Drilling OSX index (Rebased) OSEBX index (Rebased)

Key financial figures Revenue (USDm): EBITDA, adj. (USDm): EBITDA-margin Net profit (USDm): EPS, adj. (USD): Dividend per share (USD): Net debt, year-end (USDm): EV/EBITDA, adj. P/E, adj. P/B Dividend yield

2013 930 546 58.8% 274 1.19 0.95 2 315 8.5x 8.4x 2.5x 9.5%

2014E 1 041 620 59.6% 331 1.44 1.00 2 555 7.9x 7.0x 2.2x 10.0%

Highly attractive valuation with share catalysts 9.5% 2013 dividend yield backed by 100% contract coverage 8.0x/7.3x 2013E EV/EBITDA and P/E 30%/50% discount to relevant peers Near term triggers include contract for HE semi newbuild and US listing

21

Industry leading dividend yield

North Atlantic Drilling dividend yieldDrilling - daughter like mother North Atlantic Historical yield valuation
13%

12%

11%

10%

9.2 % 9%

8%

Seadrill; 8.1 %

7%

6% Feb-11

Apr-11

Jun-11

Aug-11

Oct-11

Dec-11

Feb-12

Apr-12

Jun-12

Aug-12

Oct-12

Source: RS Platou Markets, North Atlantic Drilling, Bloomberg

Yield pricing will compress as market grows more confident in the distribution

22

Dividend backed by earnings growth and cash flow visibility

Strong EBITDA growth
800

backed by high contract coverage

100 % 90 % 80 %

700

600

70 %
500

60 %

USDm

753
300

400

50 % 40 % 30 %

100 %

100 %

100 % 93 %

629 566 424 555

200

48 %
20 %

100

10 %
2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
Source: RS Platou Markets, North Atlantic Drilling

0% 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

Source: RS Platou Markets, North Atlantic Drilling

Upside to dividend as FCF to equity per share will grow from USD 0.14 in 2011 to USD 0.36 in 2015

23

Prospector Offshore Drilling Buy USD 3.30 TP

Analyst recommendation Recommendation: Target price (USD): Company data Share price (NOK): No. of shares (m): Market cap. (USDm): Net debt, YE (USDm): Enterprise value (USDm): Share price performance
Share price (NOK) in Prospector Offshore Drilling relative to key indices 15 14 13 12 11 10

Buy 3.30 Current 12.50 92 203 536 740

BLB code: PROS NO

Preparing for delivery and securing financing

4 F&G JU 2000E under construction in China 2 units under construction at Dalian shipyard Payment terms : 10%/90% Delivery schedule: 1Q13/3Q13 2 units under construction at SWS shipyard in China Payment terms : 1%/99% Delivery schedule: 1Q14/3Q14 Sold PROS #2/#4 at USD 230m/USD 228m or all-in cost of about ~USD 250m (inc non shipyard cost) Closing of agreement expected during December 2012 Will realize a book gain of USD 39.2m/23.5m and give a net cash gain of USD 60.6m/48.5m Contract secured for 1st unit secured with Total in UK North Sea Duration: 690 days + 365 days option Dayrate: USD 185k Expected contract commencement: May 2013 Financing first unit fully funded assuming USD 139m debt financing USD 60m equity raise USD 139m debt financing expected for rig #1 from Chinese export credit (first lien) Attractive valuation despite recent share issue Cash flow adj. NAV of USD 3.6 leaving a staggering ~70% upside Implied value of USD 213m, or ~ 13% below replacement cost Fair value of about USD 4.30 based on full run rate EBITDA multiple of 6.5x Average of valuation methods indicates a target price of USD 3.30

(USD):

2.20

9
8 des. 11 feb. 12 apr. 12 jun. 12 aug. 12 okt. 12
Prospector Offshore Drilling S&P 500 Index (Rebased) OSEBX index (Rebased)

2015E 302 188 62.2% 114 1.24 0.00 408 3.3x 1.8x 0.5x 0.0%

Key financial figures Revenue (USDm): EBITDA, adj. (USDm): EBITDA-margin Net profit (USDm): EPS, adj. (USD): Dividend per share (USD): Net debt, year-end (USDm): EV/EBITDA, adj. P/E, adj. P/B Dividend yield

2013 61 30 48.4% 12 0.13 0.00 187 13.2x 17.4x 0.8x 0.0%

2014E 236 143 60.7% 79 0.85 0.00 536 5.2x 2.6x 0.6x 0.0%

24

165% and 94% return on equity for sale of PROS #2 and #4

Rigs First installment Remaining yard Total yard cost Spares, capital and outfitting Project management Other cost (pre delivery, CFST) Net mobilization cost Shipyard credit Finacing fees All in cost for PROS Cash from seller Net gain Implied book value for PROS Implied yard cost Implied all-in cost Return on Equity
Source: Prospector Offshore Drilling, RS Platou Markets

#1 19 167 186 14 4 4 1 10 219

#2 19 167 185 9 4 4 2 12 217 63.3 39.4 23.9 230 257 165 %

#3 20 179 199 9 6 4 2 9 230

#4 20 179 199 9 6 4 2 9 229 48.5 23.5 25.0 228 253 94 %

#5 2 201 203 9 8 4 4 -7 9 231

#6 2 201 203 9 8 4 4 -7 9 231

25

Cash flow adjusted NAV

PROS Ownership 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % Design F&G JU-2000E F&G JU-2000E F&G JU-2000E F&G JU-2000E Delivery jan.13 aug.13 mar.14 sep.14 Replacement cost 240 240 210 210 900 -181 828 253 Adjusted rig Adj rig value value Per share 282 3.1 278 3.0 210 2.3 210 2.3 980 10.6 -181 -2.0 828 9.0 333 3.6 Sources: RS Platou Markets, RS Platou Offshore Cash Flow advantage 42 38 80

Driller 1 Driller 3 SWS Driller I SWS Driller II Total offshore assets Net debt Remaining capex Net Asset Value # shares (mill)

92

26

Disclaimer
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Each major U.S. institutional investor that receives a copy of a RS Platou Markets AS research report by its acceptance thereof represents and agrees that it shall not distribute or provide copies to any other person. Any U.S. recipient of this research report that desires to effect transactions in any securities discussed within this report should do so through RS Platou Markets, Inc., a U.S. registered broker-dealer and an affiliate of RS Platou Markets AS. All such transactions will be effected pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and related interpretations. Financial statements included in the report, if any, may have been prepared in accordance with non-U.S. accounting standards that may not be comparable to the financial statements of United States companies. It may be difficult to compel a non-U.S. company and its affiliates to subject themselves to U.S. laws or the jurisdiction of U.S. courts. The analysts whose names appear in this research report certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject securities or issuers. The analysts also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. This report is issued by RS Platou Markets AS. RS Platou Markets AS is a company established under the laws of Norway being licensed and supervised by Norwegian regulators, and all matters relating to this report shall be governed by the laws of Norway. RS Platou Markets AS is a subsidiary of RS Platou ASA.

27

RS Platou Markets AS: Haakon VII's gate 10 N-0116 Oslo Norway Telephone: +47 22 01 63 00 www.platoumarkets.com

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